Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Snap counts are a critical part of assessing a player’s weekly success. As we enter Week 11 of the NFL season, certain trends are arising that give us critical insight into the end of the fantasy season. Start/sit decisions become even more important as the fantasy playoffs creep closer. Here is a look at the snap counts for the key fantasy football players on each NFL team.
Fantasy Football Snap Counts: Week 10
Arizona Cardinals
QB: Kyler Murray (88%)
RB: James Conner (54%); Trey Benson (27%)
WR: Marvin Harrison Jr. (73%); Michael Wilson (66%); Zay Jones (39%); Greg Dortch (25%)
TE: Trey McBride (71%); Tip Reiman (59%); Elijah Higgins (49%)
Trey Benson posted his highest snap share percentage since Week 2. That helps keep James Conner healthy, as the veteran has played every game this season despite a shaky health history. Conner has missed three or more games in six of his prior seven seasons. Zay Jones saw his highest snap share of the season and will be a presence moving forward. Tip Reiman is such a fantastic blocker, he earns snaps alongside elite tight end Trey McBride.
Atlanta Falcons
QB: Kirk Cousins (100%)
RB: Bijan Robinson (78%); Tyler Allgeier (23%)
WR: Drake London (100%); Darnell Mooney (99%); Ray-Ray McCloud (99%)
TE: Kyle Pitts (51%); Charlie Woerner (49%)
Tyler Allgeier was stuffed on three straight goal-line carries in the first quarter before Bijan Robinson found the end zone. Robinson posted his best fantasy day, reaching season highs in rushing attempts (20) and rushing yards (116). Kyle Pitts has now posted below a 55% snap share in three straight games.
Baltimore Ravens
QB: Lamar Jackson (100%)
RB: Derrick Henry (62%); Justice Hill (35%); Keaton Mitchell (3%)
WR: Zay Flowers (83%); Rashod Bateman (78%); Nelson Agholor (49%); Diontae Johnson (8%)
TE: Mark Andrews (87%); Charlie Kolar (43%)
Isaiah Likely’s absence resulted in Mark Andrews’ highest snap share of the season. Keaton Mitchell’s role will grow, and Baltimore will try to protect Derrick Henry in a similar fashion to Arizona with James Conner. Diontae Johnson is currently fourth in the wide receiver pecking order, but will he stay there?
Buffalo Bills
QB: Josh Allen (99%)
RB: James Cook (55%); Ty Johnson (30%); Ray Davis (15%)
WR: Curtis Samuel (89%); Mack Hollins (88%); Khalil Shakir (72%)
TE: Dawson Knox (70%); Quintin Morris (35%); Dalton Kincaid (23%)
The Bills backfield is more of a rotation than most think. Ty Johnson has hovered around a 30% snap share all season, with rookie Ray Davis also lurking. Without Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman available, Curtis Samuel saw his first snap percentage above 56%, and did nothing (4 recs, 35 yards). Dalton Kincaid injured his knee on an overthrow by Josh Allen on an automatic touchdown.
Carolina Panthers
QB: Bryce Young (100%)
RB: Chuba Hubbard (88%); Miles Sanders (10%)
WR: Xavier Legette (98%); Jalen Coker (88%) David Moore (83%)
TE: Ja’Tavion Sanders (88%); Ian Thomas (22%)
Chuba Hubbard is here to stay, even when rookie Jonathon Brooks is active. Ja’Tavion Sanders is one of the best tight end secrets in fantasy football, posting his second straight 85% or higher snap share. Sanders followed up an 87 receiving yard day with a touchdown against the Giants and was stopped one yard short of a second.
Chicago Bears
QB: Caleb Williams (100%)
RB: D’Andre Swift (67%); Roschon Johnson (33%)
WR: DJ Moore (97%); Keenan Allen (93%) Rome Odunze (68%)
TE: Cole Kmet (93%); Gerald Everett (23%); Marcedes Lewis (23%)
A brutal offensive display against the Patriots led to the dismissal of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron Tuesday morning. Swift’s snap share is strong, with a consistent 2-to-1 split of the work with Roschon Johnson. Moore and Allen are locked in for a 90% or higher snap share, but frustrations remain with lack of production. Cole Kmet’s snap share has risen three straight weeks, will the production follow?
Cincinnati Bengals
QB: Joe Burrow (100%)
RB: Chase Brown (87%); Khalil Herbert (2%)
WR: Ja’Marr Chase (94%); Andrei Iosivas (84%); Jermaine Burton (48%); Trenton Irwin (15%)
TE: Mike Gesicki (71%); Drew Sample (56%); Tanner Hudson (35%)
Chase Brown dominated snaps with Khalil Herbert’s recent arrival, but that should balance a little more in future weeks. Notice rookie Jermaine Burton’s snap share just one week after being a healthy inactive. The Tanner Hudson touchdown tilted Gesicki truthers everywhere.
Dallas Cowboys
QB: Cooper Rush (75%); Trey Lance (25%)
RB: Rico Dowdle (52%); Hunter Luepke (27%); Ezekiel Elliott (22%)
WR: Jalen Tolbert (93%); CeeDee Lamb (83%); Jalen Brooks (58%); Ryan Flournoy (20%); KaVontae Turpin (13%)
TE: Jake Ferguson (75%); Luke Schoonmaker (18%); Brevyn Spann-Ford (10%)
Will Lance see a starting opportunity at some point this season? The backfield is a mess, with Luepke’s involvement muddying the snaps even further. Tolbert is the clear WR2 to Lamb, with Jalen Brooks a feast or famine option. Ferguson’s opportunities will remain, but his efficiency without Dak Prescott is a concern.
Denver Broncos
QB: Bo Nix (100%)
RB: Audric Estime (45%); Javonte Williams (29%); Michael Burton (17%); Jaleel McLaughlin (12%)
WR: Courtland Sutton (93%); Devaughn Vele (66%); Lil’Jordan Humphrey (59%); Troy Franklin (34%); Marvin Mims Jr. (22%)
TE: Adam Trautman (59%); Nate Adkins (36%); Lucas Krull (21%)
Estime had three successful carries in the opening quarter and fulfilled Payton’s promise of “riding the hot hand.” It was his largest snap share of the season. Denver’s ground-heavy attack limited McLaughlin, and Javonte Williams’ snap share has decreased four straight weeks. Trautman is the clear TE1 and has seen six targets over the last three weeks.
Detroit Lions
QB: Jared Goff (100%)
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs (60%); David Montgomery (40%)
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (98%); Jameson Williams (74%); Tim Patrick (49%); Kalif Raymond (25%)
TE: Sam LaPorta (60%); Brock Wright (57%); Shane Zylstra (29%)
Gibbs saw his second 60% or higher snap share of the season, which is normal when the Lions are trailing. Jameson Williams returned to his normal involvement in his first opportunity after a two-game suspension. Sam LaPorta injured his shoulder and might miss Week 11.
Houston Texans
QB: C.J. Stroud (100%)
RB: Joe Mixon (76%); Dare Ogunbowale (22%)
WR: Xavier Hutchinson (84%); Tank Dell (75%); John Metchie III (65%); Robert Woods (35%)
TE: Dalton Schultz (71%); Cade Stover (43%); Teagan Quitoriano (25%)
With Nico Collins still sidelined, Xavier Hutchinson saw the biggest opportunity bump. Tank Dell remains around 75% opportunity, and Dalton Schultz maintains a solid snap share at the shallow tight end fantasy position.
Indianapolis Colts
QB: Joe Flacco (100%)
RB: Jonathan Taylor (83%); Tyler Goodson (14%)
WR: Adonai Mitchell (94%); Alec Pierce (86%); Josh Downs (69%); Ashton Dulin (19%)
TE: Mo Alie-Cox (42%); Kylen Granson (38%); Drew Ogletree (34%)
Taylor has one of the highest running back snap shares in the NFL. Michael Pittman Jr.’s absence led to a massive snap share increase for rookie Adonai Mitchell, and Alec Pierce continues to find ways to stay on the field. He has recorded a 74% or higher snap share in every game this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
QB: Mac Jones (100%)
RB: Travis Etienne Jr. (68%); Tank Bigsby (23%); D’Ernest Johnson (9%)
WR: Brian Thomas Jr. (86%); Gabe Davis (86%); Parker Washington (52%); Tim Jones (14%)
TE: Evan Engram (84%); Brenton Strange (41%); Luke Farrell (36%)
Evan Engram should be an elite fantasy option over the remainder of the season. His snaps and targets will be secure every week. Tank Bigsby was injured during the first quarter, and only tallied one more carry the rest of the game.
Kansas City Chiefs
QB: Patrick Mahomes (100%)
RB: Kareem Hunt (65%); Samaje Perine (24%); Carson Steele (19%)
WR: Justin Watson (76%); Xavier Worthy (75%); DeAndre Hopkins (65%); Mecole Hardman (16%)
TE: Travis Kelce (84%); Noah Gray (57%); Peyton Hendershot (9%)
Perine remains a valuable part of the passing attack, while Justin Watson continues to see consistent opportunities. Worthy has 22 targets the last four weeks but limited production. He just missed on a touchdown throw from Mahomes.
Los Angeles Chargers
QB: Justin Herbert (100%)
RB: J.K. Dobbins (66%); Gus Edwards (25%); Scott Matlock (41%); Hassan Haskins (5%)
WR: Quentin Johnston (83%); Ladd McConkey (78%); Joshua Palmer (53%); Jalen Reagor (31%)
TE: Will Dissly (54%); Tucker Fisk (39%); Hayden Hurst (15%)
Gus Edwards’ impact on J.K. Dobbins was not as big as most would think. The Chargers wanted to get Edwards acclimated into the offense, but Dobbins still saw two-thirds of the opportunities. Johnston and McConkey are the clear WR leaders, but DJ Chark Jr.’s return (one snap) could hurt Palmer and Reagor in future weeks.
Minnesota Vikings
QB: Sam Darnold (100%)
RB: Aaron Jones (52%); Cam Akers (31%); Ty Chandler (14%)
WR: Justin Jefferson (93%); Jordan Addison (74%); Jalen Nailor (50%); Trent Sherfield Sr. (14%); Brandon Powell (13%)
TE: T.J. Hockenson (46%); Josh Oliver (68%); Johnny Mundt (21%)
Hockenson’s snap share will continue to grow, but Josh Oliver remains on the field as a run-blocker and occasional target. Aaron Jones was carted off the field but returned with a rib injury. He is day-to-day.
New England Patriots
QB: Drake Maye (100%)
RB: Rhamondre Stevenson (70%); JaMycal Hasty (19%); Antonio Gibson (11%)
WR: Kayshon Boutte (97%); K.J. Osborn (45%); Ja’Lynn Polk (41%); DeMario Douglas (42%)
TE: Hunter Henry (89%); Austin Hooper (64%)
Stevenson is still the dominant lead back, and Gibson’s role has decreased three straight weeks. The surprise of the week was Kendrick Bourne’s benching for the younger receivers. Henry and Hooper still get comparatively strong snap shares for the tight end position.
New Orleans Saints
QB: Derek Carr (96%)
RB: Alvin Kamara (81%); Adam Prentice (34%); Jordan Mims (15%)
WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (55%); Mason Tipton (55%); Kevin Austin Jr. (49%); Dante Pettis (13%)
TE: Foster Moreau (83%); Juwan Johnson (58%); Taysom Hill (43%)
Valdes-Scantling exploded with three catches for 109 receiving yards and two touchdowns. With Chris Olave now on injured reserve, MVS could be a sneaky play the next few weeks. Taysom Hill has posted 40% or higher snap shares the last three weeks.
New York Giants
QB: Daniel Jones (100%)
RB: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (80%); Devin Singletary (23%); Eric Gray (3%)
WR: Malik Nabers (88%); Jalin Hyatt (73%); Wan’Dale Robinson (65%); Isaiah Hodgins (31%)
TE: Theo Johnson (92%); Chris Manhertz (33%); Daniel Bellinger (11%)
How much longer will that 100% snap share remain next to Jones’ name? Darius Slayton’s concussion triggered a massive spike for Jalin Hyatt (4 recs, 39 yards). Tracy’s overtime fumble hurt badly, but he has a stranglehold on the backfield snaps.
New York Jets
QB: Aaron Rodgers (100%)
RB: Breece Hall (81%); Braelon Allen (24%)
WR: Davante Adams (97%); Garrett Wilson (97%); Xavier Gipson (41%); Malachi Corley (28%); Irvin Charles (9%)
TE: Tyler Conklin (78%); Jeremy Ruckert (34%); Kenny Yeboah (9%)
The biggest disconnect between consolidated snaps and production exists with the Jets. Both Adams and Wilson have massive snap shares, but they underwhelmed at Arizona. Breece Hall and Tyler Conklin fall under the same umbrella. Will the Jets get it going in time for the fantasy football playoffs?
Philadelphia Eagles
QB: Jalen Hurts (79%)
RB: Saquon Barkley (51%); Kenneth Gainwell (32%); Will Shipley (16%)
WR: A.J. Brown (74%); DeVonta Smith (72%); Jahan Dotson (44%); Johnny Wilson (26%); Ainias Smith (26%)
TE: Dallas Goedert (63%); Grant Calcaterra (62%); Jack Stoll (25%)
It’s hard to draw much from the Eagles blowout of the Cowboys. Goedert and Wilson both found the end zone, and the majority of key offensive players saw rest opportunities.
Pittsburgh Steelers
QB: Russell Wilson (100%)
RB: Najee Harris (47%); Jaylen Warren (45%); Cordarrelle Patterson (10%)
WR: George Pickens (81%); Van Jefferson (71%); Calvin Austin III (45%); Mike Williams (12%)
TE: Darnell Washington (64%); Pat Freiermuth (58%); MyCole Pruitt (44%)
More Arthur Smith tight end shenanigans with Darnell Washington seeing a higher snap share than Pat Freiermuth for the first time all season. Jaylen Warren’s opportunities will continue to grow. Mike Williams 12% was critical, as we caught the game-winning touchdown.
San Francisco 49ers
QB: Brock Purdy (100%)
RB: Christian McCaffrey (88%); Kyle Juszczyk (39%); Jordan Mason (5%); Isaac Guerendo (5%)
WR: Jauan Jennings (91%); Deebo Samuel Sr. (78%); Ricky Pearsall (64%); Ronnie Bell (16%)
TE: George Kittle (89%); Eric Saubert (19%); Jake Tonges (3%)
McCaffrey returned to a massive 88% snap share, limiting the impact of Mason immediately. Jennings will have a key role down the stretch, and Samuel battled through a rib injury. Pearsall has averaged a 66% snap share the last three weeks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB: Baker Mayfield (100%)
RB: Rachaad White (61%); Bucky Irving (46%)
WR: Ryan Miller (85%); Rakim Jarrett (82%); Sterling Shepard (72%); Trey Palmer (25%)
TE: Cade Otton (93%); Payne Durham (28%)
Irving’s role has solidified, even joining White on the field. Sean Tucker is clearly the RB3. It’s amazing how Baker Mayfield has performed given his two top wide receivers are Ryan Miller and Rakim Jarrett. Cade Otton’s snap share is real … and fantastic.
Tennessee Titans
QB: Will Levis (100%)
RB: Tony Pollard (54%); Tyjae Spears (46%); Julius Chestnut (17%)
WR: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (100%); Calvin Ridley (93%); Tyler Boyd (61%); Jha’Quan Jackson (20%)
TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo (54%); Josh Whyle (41%); Nick Vannett (26%)
Pollard and Spears splitting snap helps no one. Calvin Ridley has 17 receptions, 300 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the last three weeks. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is solidified ahead of Tyler Boyd, while the Tennessee tight end split couldn’t be worse for fantasy players.
Washington Commanders
QB: Jayden Daniels (100%)
RB: Austin Ekeler (70%); Jeremy McNichols (30%); Chris Rodriguez Jr. (8%)
WR: Terry McLaurin (89%); Noah Brown (89%); Luke McCaffrey (41%); Olamide Zaccheaus (25%)
TE: Zach Ertz (77%); John Bates (36%); Ben Sinnott (20%)
Brian Robinson Jr.’s absence triggers an increase of snaps for Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols. Noah Brown is seeing plenty of opportunity but is struggling with drops. Zach Ertz staying healthy at the age of 34 is a fantasy gift.
