Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against
Go beyond the box score with DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against. This table looks at how teams defend each position, adjusted for opponents faced, and made more predictive with DVOA analysis. For example, +30% means the team allows 30% more production than average to the position and is a great fantasy matchup for opponents at that position For basic fantasy points against, check out our Fantasy Points Against Tool.
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What is DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against?
Everybody loves fantasy points allowed stats to each position, but these raw numbers are fatally flawed. We want them to tell us how well (or poorly) a team defends each position, but too often they tell us more about who a team has played, especially in small samples. If a team plays Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce in the first three weeks of a season, of course, they’ll allow a lot of points to TEs!
DVOA adjusted fantasy points against adjusts for the opponent. It then goes a step further, using DVOA and DYAR data to maximize the predictive value of the metric. +30% means the defense is expected to allow 30% more fantasy points to the position than average, and -30% means the defense is expected to allow 30% fewer fantasy points to the position than average.