MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Dvoa NFL Articles
NFL
DVOA
Quarterbacks Throwing to the Slot vs. Wide 2023
Looking at how QBs did throwing wide vs. to the slot in 2023. Was Patrick Mahomes' "off year" entirely based on screens and quick outs?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
RB/TE in the Slot in 2023
Taking a look at which running backs and tight ends get the most usage and have the most success when lined up in WR positions.
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Slot vs. Wide 2023: Wide Receivers
Taking a look at which WR succeeded in the slot vs. out wide in 2023. Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb may surprise you!
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
FTN Football Almanac 2024: Now Live!
Learn more about the FTN Football Almanac 2024, plus download the free sample L.A. Chargers chapter!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Defensive Plus-Minus and YAC+ 2023
Taking a look at which defenses were best at preventing completions and YAC given the location of the passes against them, led by the Browns, Ravens, and Jets.
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
2023 YAC+: Another Huge 49ers Year
Taking a look at which receivers had the most YAC over expectation in 2023, a stat where the 49ers always do very well.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Receiving Plus-Minus for 2023
Looking at the most efficient receivers in 2023: CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, and... Evan Engram?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Passing Plus-Minus for 2023
Something Derek Carr was good at: completing passes compared to expectation. Brock Purdy was even better.
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Caused Pressure Rate for 2023 Offenses
Can we learn something from how often offensive pressure is caused by a blown block? The Arizona offensive line says yes.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Defense by Number of Pass Rushers 2023
We know the Vikings blitzed more than anyone else in 2023. Were they good at it?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Defenses and Pressure 2023
The Lions got a ton of pass pressure, and they needed it because of secondary issues. Plus more defensive numbers from 2023!
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
QBs Under Pressure in 2023
Jared Goff had great numbers in 2023, but not when he was under pressure. We look at all the QBs.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Fantasy Football: The Early Days
An excerpt from the new book "The History of Fantasy Sports" takes a look at the roots of fantasy football, during the early days of the AFL in Oakland.
Shaun Evans
NFL
DVOA
Failed Completions 2023
A stat where Brock Purdy was great and Patrick Mahomes was poor? It also wasn't a great year for Bryce Young or Derek Carr when it came to complete passes that still were unsuccessful plays.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
2024 NFL Draft Report Card Report
Here's our annual look at draft report cards. It was a good year in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia!
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Snap-Weighted Size 2023: Defense
Are teams trying to get smaller at defensive back? Plus more defensive numbers from 2023.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Snap-Weighted Size 2023: Offense
Shanahan and McVay influenced coaches like their teams smaller, while the Ravens go big.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
The 2018 NFL Draft, Six Years Later
What does it mean that analytics did such a bad job of projecting Josh Allen and the other quarterbacks of 2018? We look at the whole draft with the advantage of time.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Top 10 DVOA Ratings in Losses
It’s the offseason, which means it’s a good time to look at fun past games of NFL history. Today, let’s look at the 10 best DVOA ratings ever scored in games where the team lost anyway. These are generally very good, close games against teams that ranked very high in DVOA and therefore had strong […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
AGL Totals by Position, from Jets Quarterbacks to Patriots Cornerbacks
Earlier this week, we examined adjusted games lost at the team level. Today, we’ll switch perspectives to evaluate the impact of injuries on each position. Note that adjusted games lost totals do not include the postseason. As we noted in our first article, injury totals were down across the NFL this year, so there aren’t […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Texans Lead 2023 AGL Numbers with OL Injury Record
The Houston Texans were a surprise playoff team in 2023, and they made it to the playoffs despite leading the league in injuries to significant players according to our adjusted games lost (AGL) numbers. Cleveland also made it to the playoffs despite a high AGL in 2023. Other teams that suffered a ton of injuries […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Isaac Guerendo Tops 2024 RB Speed Scores
The very top of the Speed Score leaderboards is some rarified air. Since electronic timing started at the combine in 1999, only 11 running backs have hit 120 or higher; a number usually reserved more for track stars than NFL stars. We hadn’t had anyone join the club since Jonathan Taylor ran a 4.39 back […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
NFL Combine: Translating Coachspeak to Reality
Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah positively adores Justin Jefferson. Sean Payton would toss Russell Wilson into the mouth of a volcano if he could. The Chicago Bears braintrust still likes Justin Fields, but not nearly as much as they like their other options. The NFL scouting combine is a time for head coaches and […]
FTN Staff
NFL
DVOA
Reverse PGWE: The Least Expected NFL Wins Since 1979
A couple of years ago, I developed a new metric alled Post-Game Win Expectancy (PGWE). The idea was to explore games where the losing team has a higher DVOA rating than the winning team. How unlikely are these losses? PGWE has nothing to do with how good the teams are on the season, or coming […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
How Bad Was the Eagles’ Collapse?
Recently, I was hit up by a local reporter to talk about this year’s Philadelphia Eagles collapse down the stretch. The next day, Ross Tucker tweeted out about how public perception of Jalen Hurts has fallen way too low because of those last few games. I happen to be in agreement with him about this, […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII DVOA Preview
Well, here we are again with the question of whether we have to consider Patrick Mahomes as “playoff LeBron.” Does Mahomes specifically raise his game in the playoffs, to the point where we can’t accurately analyze the Super Bowl LVIII matchup because we can’t use past statistics to determine Kansas City’s strengths and weaknesses? Last […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Aaron Schatz’s 2023 NFL Award Ballot
This was my fourth year as an official Associated Press voter for both the All-Pro team and the end-of-season awards. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a long article about my All-Pro votes. With the NFL awards now given out, I wanted to do the same and divulge my award ballot. Sign up for […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII: Learning from the Worst of the Chiefs and 49ers
Teams don’t get to the Super Bowl without playing good football. But not all teams are perfect and there are often bumps along the way. With that, we’ll continue a DVOA tradition of looking at not when the Super Bowl participants played their best, but when they were at their worst. Let’s look at the […]
FTN Staff
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII Prop Bet Extravaganza
In 2004, the original Scramble for the Ball writers, Ian Dembsky and Al Bogdan, wrote the first Prop Bet Extravaganza at our old website, previewing the upcoming Patriots-Panthers Super Bowl. Twenty years later, the betting landscape has slightly changed. Twenty years ago, actually betting on these things was a bit more challenging. Unless you lived […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
All-Keep Choppin’ Wood Team 2023
Oh, did you think you’d be safe, just because of a little thing like an entire website shutting down? It takes more than that to stop the Woodchoppers from finding you. The All-Keep Choppin’ Wood Team is our annual attempt to sift through the debris of the season that was, pulling out the prime examples […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII Pre-Preview
I’m currently working on my 21st Super Bowl preview. That should run in the middle of next week, a few days before Super Bowl Sunday, but this means waiting more than a week before unveiling all the stat tidbits that get you ready for the big matchup. It was one thing when I was the […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII DVOA Picks
Welcome to Week 22 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz