First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Dvoa NFL Articles
NFL
DVOA
2024 NFC Championship Game: DVOA Preview
Can the Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' offense overcome their weak defense? And how healthy is Jalen Hurts right now?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
2024 AFC Championship Game: DVOA Preview
Here we are again: The Bills were the better team in the regular season, but the Chiefs have home-field advantage and that Mahomes Magic.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The History of NFL Threepeats
What about teams that threepeated before the Super Bowl era, or the teams that failed to do so since 1966?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Most Aggressive Coaches of 2024
The most aggressive coaches on fourth downs in 2024 included Dan Campbell, Sean McDermott, and... Brian Daboll?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX
Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX Revised as of 1/20/25, through Week 20 Compiled by Mike Harris The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Ravens at Bills: DVOA Preview
Here we go with the MVP Bowl: Two of the best quarterbacks in the league, two of the best teams by DVOA, only one of them can move on to the AFC Championship Game.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Rams at Eagles: DVOA Preview
Can the Rams stop Saquon Barkley this time? And do their defensive strengths match what the Eagles like to do on offense?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Texans at Chiefs: DVOA Preview
Last time, the Texans faced the Chiefs, Kansas City controlled the entire game. Can the Houston defense make this rematch different?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Commanders at Lions: DVOA Preview
Hide your punters and get out your abacuses out, because we're going deep into the stats on a game with a 55.5-point over/under.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Vikings vs. Rams: DVOA Preview
Can a blitzing Vikings defense get to Matthew Stafford, who excelled at getting the ball out quick against blitzes this season? They didn't in Week 8.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Aaron Schatz: My 2024 All-Pro Ballot
From the Ravens offense to the Eagles line and the Broncos defenders, Aaron Schatz explains his All-Pro votes for 2024.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Commanders at Buccaneers: DVOA Preview
Offenses should rule the day in this close NFC playoff matchup, with both Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield among the year's best quarterbacks.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Packers at Eagles: DVOA Preview
The powerful Packers offense hasn't been quite as good against their best opponents, which is a problem against the NFL's No. 1 defense.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Broncos at Bills: DVOA Preview
The Broncos are back in the playoffs, but they've got a tough draw as the Buffalo Bills try to finally get over the hump and win a title.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Steelers at Ravens: DVOA Preview
The Ravens and Steelers split their season series but DVOA says the Ravens were the best team in the league this year, a clear favorite on Saturday night.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Chargers at Texans: DVOA Preview
The Texans won the AFC South by default, with a poor offense lifted by a strong defense. Can they score enough points to beat the wild-card Chargers?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Eighth Annual Joe Thomas Draft
What if the playoff teams could grab the best players from the other 18 teams, so we could see the best players in the NFL in the postseason?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Cornerback Coverage DVOA Weeks 1-17
Here's another update on our coverage DVOA for cornerbacks, showing why Patrick Surtain is a leading DPOY candidate.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Down with the Frickin’ Asterisk
Brock Bowers took two extra games to break Mike Ditka's rookie record? Saquon Barkley would need a 17th game to break records? Yeah, we don't care.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
FTN’s 2024 All-Rookie Team
From Jayden Daniels to Brian Thomas to Tarheeb Still, we're looking at the best of the 2024 rookie class in the NFL.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Our 2024 Pro Bowl Ballot: Defense
From Nik Bonitto and Patrick Surtain to Zack Baun and Cooper DeJean, the Broncos and Eagles feature strongly in our picks for the Pro Bowl on defense and special teams.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Our 2024 Pro Bowl Ballot: Offense
From Josh Allen to Ja'Marr Chase to the Eagles offensive line, we pick our ballot for the Pro Bowl offensive players.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
The Teams Nobody Wants to Play (That Might Miss the Playoffs)
Every year, some team gets hot in the second half. It's the "team nobody wants to play." But will that team even make the postseason?
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
New York Jets All-Drought Team
The Jets haven't made the playoffs in 14 years. There have been some good players during that drought, though, right? Right? Let's pick them.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
2024 Route DVOA Through Week 13
Players who look better when we look at receiving by route instead of by target include Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, and Malik Nabers.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Is Saquon Barkley Even MVP of the Eagles?
Saquon Barkley is in the MVP conversation, but is he even as valuable as A.J. Brown or Jalen Hurts? Let's break it down.
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Breaking Down the NFL Playoff Race 2024
This week's Cardinals-Seahawks game is huge, but the AFC playoff race is nearly over. Bryan Knowles lines up all the teams as we head into the final month.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Thanksgiving Fantasy Turkeys 2024
This Thanksgiving, let's look around the league at the turkeys that ruined our fantasy football teams in 2024.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Cornerback Coverage DVOA Weeks 1-11
Here's a look at cornerback coverage through Week 11. Some of the best cornerbacks are those expected (Patrick Surtain, Christian Benford) and those unexpected (Darrell Baker?).
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
How Much Blame Does Aaron Rodgers Deserve?
Yes, the mess in New York is heavily Aaron Rodgers' fault. Nathaniel Hackett doesn't escape blame either.
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Bad Luck and the Bengals
Is Joe Burrow on pace to be the best QB ever for a losing team? What would life be like if the Bengals -- and everyone else -- switched their results in one-score games?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Will the Kansas City Chiefs Go Undefeated in 2024?
Looking at each game on the schedule to figure out where the Chiefs might stumble. Or will they go all the way to 17-0?
Tyler Loechner