Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dvoa NFL Articles
NFL
DVOA
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX
Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX Revised as of 12/23/24, through Week 16 (no MNF) Compiled by Mike Harris The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Our 2024 Pro Bowl Ballot: Defense
From Nik Bonitto and Patrick Surtain to Zack Baun and Cooper DeJean, the Broncos and Eagles feature strongly in our picks for the Pro Bowl on defense and special teams.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Our 2024 Pro Bowl Ballot: Offense
From Josh Allen to Ja'Marr Chase to the Eagles offensive line, we pick our ballot for the Pro Bowl offensive players.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
The Teams Nobody Wants to Play (That Might Miss the Playoffs)
Every year, some team gets hot in the second half. It's the "team nobody wants to play." But will that team even make the postseason?
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
New York Jets All-Drought Team
The Jets haven't made the playoffs in 14 years. There have been some good players during that drought, though, right? Right? Let's pick them.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
2024 Route DVOA Through Week 13
Players who look better when we look at receiving by route instead of by target include Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, and Malik Nabers.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Is Saquon Barkley Even MVP of the Eagles?
Saquon Barkley is in the MVP conversation, but is he even as valuable as A.J. Brown or Jalen Hurts? Let's break it down.
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Breaking Down the NFL Playoff Race 2024
This week's Cardinals-Seahawks game is huge, but the AFC playoff race is nearly over. Bryan Knowles lines up all the teams as we head into the final month.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Thanksgiving Fantasy Turkeys 2024
This Thanksgiving, let's look around the league at the turkeys that ruined our fantasy football teams in 2024.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Cornerback Coverage DVOA Weeks 1-11
Here's a look at cornerback coverage through Week 11. Some of the best cornerbacks are those expected (Patrick Surtain, Christian Benford) and those unexpected (Darrell Baker?).
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
How Much Blame Does Aaron Rodgers Deserve?
Yes, the mess in New York is heavily Aaron Rodgers' fault. Nathaniel Hackett doesn't escape blame either.
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Bad Luck and the Bengals
Is Joe Burrow on pace to be the best QB ever for a losing team? What would life be like if the Bengals -- and everyone else -- switched their results in one-score games?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Will the Kansas City Chiefs Go Undefeated in 2024?
Looking at each game on the schedule to figure out where the Chiefs might stumble. Or will they go all the way to 17-0?
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
Jared Goff: When Five Interceptions Aren’t That Bad
Is it possible to have a good game despite throwing five interceptions? Jared Goff almost did, because different interceptions are negative in different ways.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Who Will Win the NFC West?
The NFC West is a mess of near-.500 teams. Can the Cardinals pull it out? Will the 49ers come back? Or are the Rams ready now that their receivers are healthy?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
The Dan Campbell Effect is Real
Are the Lions just so physical that they wear out their opponents, who then struggle the following week? It appears the answer may be yes, especially for underdogs.
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
How Is Sean McVay the Winningest Rams Coach Ever?
Go back into the long history of the Los Angeles Rams, a franchise that has never had a truly great coach that stuck around for a long time... until Sean McVay.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Is NFC North the Best Division Ever?
Is the NFC North on pace to be the best division ever? And does that mean anything when we consider whether one of these four teams will win the Super Bowl?
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
2024 Route DVOA Through Week 7
Here's our first look at Route DVOA and DYAR for 2024, led by Falcons wideout Drake London and Justin Jefferson of the Vikings.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
How the Chiefs are Scoring with Success Rate
How are the Chiefs staying undefeated? They may not have the best offensive DVOA, but they're the most consistent team staying on schedule. Is that sustainable?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Cornerback Coverage DVOA: Weeks 1-6
Here's a look at cornerback coverage DVOA through Week 6 of the 2024 season, highlighted by Marshon Lattimore, Jaylon Johnson, Patrick Surtain, and a surprising Stephon Gilmore.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Has Offensive Production Rebounded?
The early lows for offense seem to be gone. Pressure is down and performance against the blitz is up.
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Gauging the Trade Deadline 2024
Which teams are out of it, and which players could be going somewhere new? Diontae Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Scherff, and more...
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Are The Vikings Actually Good This Time?
The Vikings are No. 1 in DVOA. They've been No. 1 in DVOA before. They don't have a Super Bowl championship to show for it. Will this be the year?
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
Jets’ Saleh Move? It’s Just Weird
There haven't been a lot of coaches fired at midseason with a higher DVOA than Robert Saleh's New York Jets. Let's look further at the unexpected move.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
2024 MVP May Not Have Wide Receivers, But He’ll Have Help
What does a lack of WR help mean for the MVP narrative for quarterbacks? How much help did past MVP quarterbacks get from their wideouts vs. other positions?
Scott Spratt
NFL
DVOA
Guts and Stomps and the Ravens-Bills Blowout
An update on Guts and Stomps shows that it is still better to beat down on your opponents like the Ravens often have, even if the Chiefs may be an exception to the rule.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
What Does the Bills Blowout Mean?
Buffalo had gone 43 regular-season games without losing by more than a touchdown. What did Sunday night's loss mean for their future?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Rising Pressure and Offensive Decline in the NFL
What if great pass rushers like T.J. Watt have as much to do with declining offenses as the rise of two-high safety coverage?
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Year of the Retread Quarterbacks
It seems like an abnormal number of quarterbacks are having success in 2024 with new teams. How does this compare with years in the recent past?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Bryce Young: Biggest Draft Bust Ever?
Is the problem Bryce Young, or the team that surrounds him?
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
The 2024 DOOM Index
The Panthers are doomed! The Ravens and Bengals less so. Which 0-2 teams can regroup and still make the playoffs?
Bryan Knowles