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Aaron Schatz's Content

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Aaron Schatz

Aaron Schatz has been doing NFL analytics for over 20 years and is the creator of advanced stats including DVOA, DYAR, and Adjusted Line Yards. He also writes for ESPN+ and ESPN Bet and hosts the FTN Fantasy Schatz and Tanier NFL Podcast. He is also one of the 50 members of the Associated Press NFL voting panel for regular-season awards and the All-Pro team.

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1980 Player DVOA and DYAR: Earl Campbell Goes Beast Mode

We’re continuing our look at 1979 and 1980 DVOA ratings with the unveiling of the 1980 player DVOA and DYAR ratings. Earl Campbell was an absolute beast in 1980, even better than he was in 1979. Dan Fouts had another great year. The Falcons and Browns had very strong offenses, and the Patriots had a […]

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1980 DVOA: Eagles Can’t Climb the Summit

The Philadelphia Eagles top the ratings as the best team of 1980, narrowly surpassing the surprising Atlanta Falcons. This makes two straight years on top for the Eagles, as they also rank No. 1 for the 1981 season. The Oakland Raiders, who became the first wild-card team since the merger to win the Super Bowl […]

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1979 Player DVOA and DYAR: The Greatness of Staubach

Let’s continue our look back at 1979 and 1980 DVOA ratings. Today we have player DVOA and DYAR from the 1979 season. It was a good year for the Cowboys, Chargers, and Patriots offenses. It was a very good year for Earl Campbell and the Houston Oilers running game. A reminder, here’s the complete schedule […]

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1979 Team DVOA: Back to the Steel Curtain

Today, DVOA finally reaches all the way back to the 1970s. All this week, I’ll be introducing DVOA ratings from 1979 and 1980. That means we’re back to the Steel Curtain Pittsburgh Steelers, and it will not shock you that the champions of Super Bowl XIV were also the No. 1 team in the NFL […]

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Top 10 DVOA Ratings in Losses

It’s the offseason, which means it’s a good time to look at fun past games of NFL history. Today, let’s look at the 10 best DVOA ratings ever scored in games where the team lost anyway. These are generally very good, close games against teams that ranked very high in DVOA and therefore had strong […]

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AGL Totals by Position, from Jets Quarterbacks to Patriots Cornerbacks

Earlier this week, we examined adjusted games lost at the team level. Today, we’ll switch perspectives to evaluate the impact of injuries on each position. Note that adjusted games lost totals do not include the postseason. As we noted in our first article, injury totals were down across the NFL this year, so there aren’t […]

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Texans Lead 2023 AGL Numbers with OL Injury Record

The Houston Texans were a surprise playoff team in 2023, and they made it to the playoffs despite leading the league in injuries to significant players according to our adjusted games lost (AGL) numbers. Cleveland also made it to the playoffs despite a high AGL in 2023. Other teams that suffered a ton of injuries […]

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February 26, 2024

Reverse PGWE: The Least Expected NFL Wins Since 1979

A couple of years ago, I developed a new metric alled Post-Game Win Expectancy (PGWE). The idea was to explore games where the losing team has a higher DVOA rating than the winning team. How unlikely are these losses? PGWE has nothing to do with how good the teams are on the season, or coming […]

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February 21, 2024

How Bad Was the Eagles’ Collapse?

Recently, I was hit up by a local reporter to talk about this year’s Philadelphia Eagles collapse down the stretch. The next day, Ross Tucker tweeted out about how public perception of Jalen Hurts has fallen way too low because of those last few games. I happen to be in agreement with him about this, […]

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February 12, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII DVOA and Quick Reads

The Kansas City Chiefs ended up with a higher DVOA than the San Francisco 49ers in their Super Bowl LVIII win. But as you might imagine given how good the Niners were in the regular season, that’s because of opponent adjustments. As befits a game where the Chiefs recovered six of seven fumbles including both […]

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February 9, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII DVOA Preview

Well, here we are again with the question of whether we have to consider Patrick Mahomes as “playoff LeBron.” Does Mahomes specifically raise his game in the playoffs, to the point where we can’t accurately analyze the Super Bowl LVIII matchup because we can’t use past statistics to determine Kansas City’s strengths and weaknesses? Last […]

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February 9, 2024

Aaron Schatz’s 2023 NFL Award Ballot

This was my fourth year as an official Associated Press voter for both the All-Pro team and the end-of-season awards. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a long article about my All-Pro votes. With the NFL awards now given out, I wanted to do the same and divulge my award ballot. Sign up for […]

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NFL Draft First-Round Review w/ Aaron Schatz & Mike Tanier

Welcome to the Aaron Schatz & Mike Tanier NFL Podcast, where they review the first round picks from the NFL…

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NFL DVOA Fantasy

Skill Player Projections for NFL Draft w/ Aaron Schatz & Mike Tanier

Welcome to the Aaron Schatz & Mike Tanier NFL Podcast, where they break down the skill player projections for the…

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