NBA Betting Model

NBA Betting Model – Best Picks & Projections Today

FTN’s NBA Betting Model gives you a daily edge in the betting markets by combining advanced simulations with real-time sportsbook data. Every game is simulated 10,000 times to generate accurate win probabilities, projected scores, and expected value for every betting angle — spread, total, and moneyline.

Use this tool to find high-edge bets that offer long-term profitability, not just short-term heat.

What’s Included

Our NBA Betting Model helps you identify the best value plays on every slate by comparing our internal projections to the current sportsbook lines. For each game, you’ll see:

• Projected win probability for each team

• Recommended bet type – spread, total, or moneyline

• Edge % – the model’s expected value based on the current odds

• Live odds pulled from major sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and more

• Projected final score from our 10,000-run simulation engine

You can sort bets by edge %, game time, or bet type to quickly find the most actionable wagers.

How to Interpret Edge %

• 10%+ Edge = Great Bet – High expected value

• 5–10% Edge = Good Bet – Strong consideration

• 0–5% Edge = Ok Bet – Slight edge, lower confidence

• < 0% Edge = No Bet – Negative EV, best avoided

All edges and probabilities are updated automatically as odds move and simulations rerun.

Expand Your Edge

Combine this model with the rest of FTN’s NBA betting and DFS ecosystem:

• NBA Player Props Tool for projection-based props

• NBA DFS Projections for fantasy lineups powered by the same model

• NBA Betting Picks for expert writeups and betting breakdowns

• FTN Discord for real-time updates, discussion, and picks from our analysts

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Lines and odds subject to change. See details at sportsbook.draftkings.com.