NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Special Teams DVOA
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This page lists an estimate of how many points, compared to league average, each team receives from the five elements of special teams: field goals/extra points, kickoffs, kick returns, punts, punt returns. The total is then converted into a DVOA percentage so that it can be added in to offense and defense to create total team DVOA.
Field goal rating compares each field goal to the league-average percentage of field goals from that distance. Yards of field position from the other four elements of special teams are translated into points using a method that gives each yard line a point value based on the average next score an NFL offense is worth from that point on the field. Kickoffs and punts are based on net yardage. Kickoff returns and punt returns are judged on return yardage only. These numbers are then adjusted for weather and altitude based on stadium type (cold, warm, dome, Denver) and week. The system is explained here. Two-point conversions and onside kicks are not included. Blocked kicks are not included because they are too rare to be predictive.
The final five columns represent elements not found in the standard special teams ratings.
- HIDDEN represents the advantage teams have received from elements of special teams generally out of their control: opposing field goals, kickoff distance, and punt distance. It is listed as points worth of estimated field position, and is ranked from the team with the biggest advantage to the team with the biggest disadvantage.
- WEATHER represents the estimated effect of weather, altitude, and domes on each team’s special teams performance. It is listed as points worth of estimated field position, and is ranked from the team with the biggest advantage to the team with the biggest disadvantage.
- NON-ADJ VOA shows special teams DVOA without the adjustments for weather and altitude.