Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
PGA Ownership Projections & GPP Scores
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PGA Ownership Projections & GPP Scores
- Wave will denote any weather advantages. anything above 1 is advantageous, anything below 1 means the player has the bad draw
- Rating is a summation of EVERYTHING, adjusted for projected SE ownership. this includes course fit expected strokes gained, baseline expected strokes gained, win odds, top 10 odds, and made cut odds
- xSG is a weighted blend of course fit expected strokes gained (the same one i’ve been posting since getting to FTN) and my baseline expected strokes gained. the stronger the CF model, the more xSG will reflect the CF xSG
- xSG is the main metric I look at
- BOE is the player’s estimated/projected birdie rate over expectation. I will still post the full BOE upload each week
- top 10 odds, win odds, and made cut odds are a blend of our simulation results and my generic models
- DD, DA, APP, ATG, and Putt are the baseline strokes gained projections that feed the course fit model