DVOA Articles

NFL DVOA

March 7, 2025

2024 AGL Totals by Position, from Lions Edge to Saints Wideouts

A look at the position groups with the most injuries in 2024, including Cardinals defensive line, Lions edge rushers, and 49ers running backs.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

March 6, 2025

2024 AGL: 49ers Get Smacked Down by Injuries

The 49ers were the most injured team in the league in 2024, while the Ravens were one of the least injured teams in years.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

March 5, 2025

1978 Player DVOA: Roger Staubach, Dominating Rookies, and the Ghost

We unveil 1978 player DVOA and DYAR, as the season was led by Hall of Fame QBs and rookie standouts from Houston to San Diego.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

March 4, 2025

1978 Team DVOA: Glory Days of the Steelers-Cowboys Rivalry

Come back with us to when the Steelers and Cowboys dominated the NFL as we add the first 16-game season to our DVOA database.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

March 1, 2025

2025 RB Speed Scores

Looking at running backs and their combine 40s, Bhayshul Tuten is one name that could be climbing up draft boards.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

February 10, 2025

Super Bowl LIX DVOA Recap: Quick Reads on Eagles and Chiefs

Vic Fangio's defense has the most dominant half in Super Bowl history according to DVOA, plus Xavier Worthy sets records in garbage time.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

February 7, 2025

Aaron Schatz’s 2024 NFL Award Ballot

FTN's Aaron Schatz is one of the 50 media members who vote on NFL awards, and here is his reasoning on everything from MVP to Comeback Player of the Year.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

February 5, 2025

Super Bowl LIX: DVOA Preview

Can Steve Spagnuolo blitz Jalen Hurts to death? Can the No. 1 Eagles defense contain Patrick Mahomes? Here's a stat-packed Super Bowl LIX preview.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

February 5, 2025

Super Bowl LIX Prop Bet Extravaganza: From TDs to Taylor

What book will A.J. Brown read on the sideline? Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after a win? You can bet on all of it!

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 30, 2025

Super Bowl LIX Pre-Preview

Emptying the early notebook of stat tidbits about Super Bowl LIX, including why Vic Fangio's past failures against Patrick Mahomes are overstated.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 29, 2025

All-Keep Choppin’ Wood Team 2024

From Deshaun Watson to Diontae Johnson to Haason Reddick, it's the annual look at the players who hurt their teams the most this year, on and off the field.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 27, 2025

Conference Championship Quick Reads

Xavier Worthy has established himself as Kansas City's No. 1 receiver as we go into Super Bowl LIX. Plus: All the DYAR numbers from the conference championships.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 27, 2025

Conference Championship DVOA Ratings

We said the Chiefs couldn't keep winning like this unless they played better. And so, they played better and kept winning.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 24, 2025

2024 NFC Championship Game: DVOA Preview

Can the Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' offense overcome their weak defense? And how healthy is Jalen Hurts right now?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 24, 2025

2024 AFC Championship Game: DVOA Preview

Here we are again: The Bills were the better team in the regular season, but the Chiefs have home-field advantage and that Mahomes Magic.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 22, 2025

The History of NFL Threepeats

What about teams that threepeated before the Super Bowl era, or the teams that failed to do so since 1966?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 21, 2025

Most Aggressive Coaches of 2024

The most aggressive coaches on fourth downs in 2024 included Dan Campbell, Sean McDermott, and... Brian Daboll?

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 20, 2025

Divisional Round Quick Reads: Daniels Flies High

Jayden Daniels had the biggest day of the weekend by DYAR. Plus: Why was Saquon Barkley's DYAR so low with so many yards?

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 20, 2025

NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX Revised as of 1/27/25, through Week 21 Compiled by Mike Harris The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 20, 2025

Divisional Round DVOA: Two Teams Stand Out in Final Four

We're down to the final four, but DVOA clearly sees two teams as clear favorites for Super Bowl LIX: Philadelphia and Buffalo.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 17, 2025

Ravens at Bills: DVOA Preview

Here we go with the MVP Bowl: Two of the best quarterbacks in the league, two of the best teams by DVOA, only one of them can move on to the AFC Championship Game.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 17, 2025

Rams at Eagles: DVOA Preview

Can the Rams stop Saquon Barkley this time? And do their defensive strengths match what the Eagles like to do on offense?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 16, 2025

Texans at Chiefs: DVOA Preview

Last time, the Texans faced the Chiefs, Kansas City controlled the entire game. Can the Houston defense make this rematch different?

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 16, 2025

Commanders at Lions: DVOA Preview

Hide your punters and get out your abacuses out, because we're going deep into the stats on a game with a 55.5-point over/under.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 15, 2025

Jackson vs. Allen Just the Latest MVP Bowl

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will face off, the 13th time that the top two MVP candidates met in the playoffs. Who won in the past?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 14, 2025

Wild Card DVOA: Big Games for Texans and Rams

We've got DVOA updated for the playoffs! Baltimore is still No. 1, but Houston is climbing after one of the year's biggest single wins.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 14, 2025

DVOA Downloads

2024 DVOA Downloads Updated February 10 Historical DVOA Archive Updated March 5 Here’s what you will find in these workbooks: ALL BASIC DVOA STATS 1978-2024 Total DVOA with past schedule, variance, estimated wins, and Pythagorean wins. Offensive DVOA with run/pass splits. (Remember, scrambles are passes for the purposes of team DVOA!) Defensive DVOA with run/pass […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 13, 2025

Wild-Card Quick Reads: Ladd McConkey and Great Rookie Playoff Games

Ladd McConkey set a rookie receiving yards record for the playoffs. Did he set the DYAR record too? Plus best and worst players of the Wild-Card Weekend.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 13, 2025

Vikings vs. Rams: DVOA Preview

Can a blitzing Vikings defense get to Matthew Stafford, who excelled at getting the ball out quick against blitzes this season? They didn't in Week 8.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 10, 2025

Aaron Schatz: My 2024 All-Pro Ballot

From the Ravens offense to the Eagles line and the Broncos defenders, Aaron Schatz explains his All-Pro votes for 2024.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 10, 2025

Commanders at Buccaneers: DVOA Preview

Offenses should rule the day in this close NFC playoff matchup, with both Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield among the year's best quarterbacks.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 10, 2025

Packers at Eagles: DVOA Preview

The powerful Packers offense hasn't been quite as good against their best opponents, which is a problem against the NFL's No. 1 defense.

Bryan Knowles