Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
DVOA Articles
NFL
DVOA
Detroit Lions Are the Walking Wounded
Bryan Knowles goes inside StatsHub to show where the Lions have fallen off since losing so many defenders to injuries.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Cornerback Coverage DVOA Weeks 1-17
Here's another update on our coverage DVOA for cornerbacks, showing why Patrick Surtain is a leading DPOY candidate.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Down with the Frickin’ Asterisk
Brock Bowers took two extra games to break Mike Ditka's rookie record? Saquon Barkley would need a 17th game to break records? Yeah, we don't care.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 17 DVOA: Ravens Keep Climbing
The Baltimore Ravens keep moving up and now rank among the best overall DVOA teams of all time. Yes, we've seen this before.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
DVOA Downloads
2024 DVOA Downloads Updated December 31 (Individual Defense updated December 24) Historical DVOA Archive Here’s what you will find in these workbooks: ALL BASIC DVOA STATS 1979-2023 Total DVOA with past schedule, variance, estimated wins, and Pythagorean wins. Offensive DVOA with run/pass splits. (Remember, scrambles are passes for the purposes of team DVOA!) Defensive DVOA […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX
Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX Revised as of 12/31/24, through Week 17 Compiled by Mike Harris The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 17 Quick Reads: Big Week for Big QB Games
It was a big week for quarterbacks, with five of the top 13 games of the season by DYAR.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Goff, Jackson Shine Throwing to Open Receivers
Let's look at which quarterbacks have the most value when throwing to open receivers, including Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
FTN’s 2024 All-Rookie Team
From Jayden Daniels to Brian Thomas to Tarheeb Still, we're looking at the best of the 2024 rookie class in the NFL.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 16 DVOA: Here Come the Packers
The red hot Packers move up to No. 2 in weighted DVOA as the best team in the league since Week 11. Get all the updated ratings here!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 16 Quick Reads: Mahomes Conquers a Strong Defense
Patrick Mahomes was the top quarterback of the week thanks to opponent adjustments. Who else played well against Houston this season?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Our 2024 Pro Bowl Ballot: Defense
From Nik Bonitto and Patrick Surtain to Zack Baun and Cooper DeJean, the Broncos and Eagles feature strongly in our picks for the Pro Bowl on defense and special teams.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Our 2024 Pro Bowl Ballot: Offense
From Josh Allen to Ja'Marr Chase to the Eagles offensive line, we pick our ballot for the Pro Bowl offensive players.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 15 DVOA: Ravens Back on Top
The Lions are out of the top spot, but the Bills aren't in. Instead, DVOA likes the 9-5 Ravens the most. Let's go in depth on why that is.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 15 Quick Reads: Middle of the Road
With Jared Goff leading all quarterbacks in value this week, we take a look at passing to the middle of the field: who does it most and who does it best? Plus, best and worst players of Week 15.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Aggressive Mindset of the Lions and Bills
Detroit and Buffalo get ready for the Game of the Week, making it this far in part thanks to being aggressive -- and successful -- on fourth downs.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
The Teams Nobody Wants to Play (That Might Miss the Playoffs)
Every year, some team gets hot in the second half. It's the "team nobody wants to play." But will that team even make the postseason?
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
New York Jets All-Drought Team
The Jets haven't made the playoffs in 14 years. There have been some good players during that drought, though, right? Right? Let's pick them.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 DVOA: Lions Hold Their Lead
The Lions fall a bit after a close win over Green Bay but still rank among the top 10 teams in DVOA history. Get all the updated ratings here!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 Quick Reads: Catch Rate as Catch Can
Pat Freiermuth and Amon-Ra St. Brown are among the 2024 receivers challenging catch rate records. Plus, best and worst of Week 14 by DYAR.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Will D.J. Humphries Solve the Chiefs’ Pressure Problem?
Sunday night's Chargers-Chiefs game is big, and the Chiefs may be introducing a new left tackle. Can he help solve their pressure problem?
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
2024 Route DVOA Through Week 13
Players who look better when we look at receiving by route instead of by target include Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, and Malik Nabers.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Is Saquon Barkley Even MVP of the Eagles?
Saquon Barkley is in the MVP conversation, but is he even as valuable as A.J. Brown or Jalen Hurts? Let's break it down.
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Breaking Down the NFL Playoff Race 2024
This week's Cardinals-Seahawks game is huge, but the AFC playoff race is nearly over. Bryan Knowles lines up all the teams as we head into the final month.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 DVOA: Eagles Defense Keeps Getting Better
The Eagles are up to third in weighted DVOA with their defense playing great since Week 7. Plus: are the Chiefs the worst 11-1 team ever?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 Quick Reads: Russell Wilson Loves Bad Defenses
Russell Wilson had a big Week 13, but it was yet another game this year where he took advantage of a bad pass defense.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Thanksgiving Fantasy Turkeys 2024
This Thanksgiving, let's look around the league at the turkeys that ruined our fantasy football teams in 2024.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 DVOA: Schedules Past and Present
The Lions are still on top, the Eagles are on the rise, plus a look at schedule strength split into offense/defense and past/future.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 Quick Reads: Saquon’s Schedule
Saquon Barkley's MVP case is complicated by a very easy schedule. Plus, more of the best and worst players of Week 12 by our DYAR stats.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
QBs vs. Man and Zone Coverage
Is man coverage the secret to stopping Josh Allen? Which quarterbacks are better against man than zone? Bryan Knowles investigates using the FTN StatsHub.
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Cornerback Coverage DVOA Weeks 1-11
Here's a look at cornerback coverage through Week 11. Some of the best cornerbacks are those expected (Patrick Surtain, Christian Benford) and those unexpected (Darrell Baker?).
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
How Much Blame Does Aaron Rodgers Deserve?
Yes, the mess in New York is heavily Aaron Rodgers' fault. Nathaniel Hackett doesn't escape blame either.
Alex Blickle