Bettings

DVOA Articles

article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Defenses and Pressure 2023
The Lions got a ton of pass pressure, and they needed it because of secondary issues. Plus more defensive numbers from 2023!
author-image
Cale Clinton
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
QBs Under Pressure in 2023
Jared Goff had great numbers in 2023, but not when he was under pressure. We look at all the QBs.
author-image
Bryan Knowles
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Fantasy Football: The Early Days
An excerpt from the new book "The History of Fantasy Sports" takes a look at the roots of fantasy football, during the early days of the AFL in Oakland.
author-image
FTN Staff
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Failed Completions 2023
A stat where Brock Purdy was great and Patrick Mahomes was poor? It also wasn't a great year for Bryce Young or Derek Carr when it came to complete passes that still were unsuccessful plays.
author-image
Bryan Knowles
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
2024 NFL Draft Report Card Report
Here's our annual look at draft report cards. It was a good year in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia!
author-image
Cale Clinton
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Snap-Weighted Size 2023: Defense
Are teams trying to get smaller at defensive back? Plus more defensive numbers from 2023.
author-image
Bryan Knowles
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Snap-Weighted Size 2023: Offense
Shanahan and McVay influenced coaches like their teams smaller, while the Ravens go big.
author-image
Bryan Knowles
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
The 2018 NFL Draft, Six Years Later
What does it mean that analytics did such a bad job of projecting Josh Allen and the other quarterbacks of 2018? We look at the whole draft with the advantage of time.
author-image
Bryan Knowles
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
1980 Player DVOA and DYAR: Earl Campbell Goes Beast Mode
We’re continuing our look at 1979 and 1980 DVOA ratings with the unveiling of the 1980 player DVOA and DYAR ratings. Earl Campbell was an absolute beast in 1980, even better than he was in 1979. Dan Fouts had another great year. The Falcons and Browns had very strong offenses, and the Patriots had a […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
1980 DVOA: Eagles Can’t Climb the Summit
The Philadelphia Eagles top the ratings as the best team of 1980, narrowly surpassing the surprising Atlanta Falcons. This makes two straight years on top for the Eagles, as they also rank No. 1 for the 1981 season. The Oakland Raiders, who became the first wild-card team since the merger to win the Super Bowl […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
1979 Player DVOA and DYAR: The Greatness of Staubach
Let’s continue our look back at 1979 and 1980 DVOA ratings. Today we have player DVOA and DYAR from the 1979 season. It was a good year for the Cowboys, Chargers, and Patriots offenses. It was a very good year for Earl Campbell and the Houston Oilers running game. A reminder, here’s the complete schedule […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
1979 Team DVOA: Back to the Steel Curtain
Today, DVOA finally reaches all the way back to the 1970s. All this week, I’ll be introducing DVOA ratings from 1979 and 1980. That means we’re back to the Steel Curtain Pittsburgh Steelers, and it will not shock you that the champions of Super Bowl XIV were also the No. 1 team in the NFL […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Snap-Weighted Age 2023
As if it wasn’t enough for the Kansas City Chiefs to be the dynasty perched atop the league, they have the sheer temerity to be one of the league’s youngest teams while doing so? For shame. While the 2023 Chiefs were slightly older than the 2022 version, they still ranked just 25th in snap-weighted age […]
author-image
Bryan Knowles
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Top 10 DVOA Ratings in Losses
It’s the offseason, which means it’s a good time to look at fun past games of NFL history. Today, let’s look at the 10 best DVOA ratings ever scored in games where the team lost anyway. These are generally very good, close games against teams that ranked very high in DVOA and therefore had strong […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
AGL Totals by Position, from Jets Quarterbacks to Patriots Cornerbacks
Earlier this week, we examined adjusted games lost at the team level. Today, we’ll switch perspectives to evaluate the impact of injuries on each position. Note that adjusted games lost totals do not include the postseason. As we noted in our first article, injury totals were down across the NFL this year, so there aren’t […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Texans Lead 2023 AGL Numbers with OL Injury Record
The Houston Texans were a surprise playoff team in 2023, and they made it to the playoffs despite leading the league in injuries to significant players according to our adjusted games lost (AGL) numbers. Cleveland also made it to the playoffs despite a high AGL in 2023. Other teams that suffered a ton of injuries […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Isaac Guerendo Tops 2024 RB Speed Scores
The very top of the Speed Score leaderboards is some rarified air. Since electronic timing started at the combine in 1999, only 11 running backs have hit 120 or higher; a number usually reserved more for track stars than NFL stars. We hadn’t had anyone join the club since Jonathan Taylor ran a 4.39 back […]
author-image
Bryan Knowles
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
NFL Combine: Translating Coachspeak to Reality
Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah positively adores Justin Jefferson. Sean Payton would toss Russell Wilson into the mouth of a volcano if he could. The Chicago Bears braintrust still likes Justin Fields, but not nearly as much as they like their other options. The NFL scouting combine is a time for head coaches and […]
author-image
FTN
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Reverse PGWE: The Least Expected NFL Wins Since 1979
A couple of years ago, I developed a new metric alled Post-Game Win Expectancy (PGWE). The idea was to explore games where the losing team has a higher DVOA rating than the winning team. How unlikely are these losses? PGWE has nothing to do with how good the teams are on the season, or coming […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
How Bad Was the Eagles’ Collapse?
Recently, I was hit up by a local reporter to talk about this year’s Philadelphia Eagles collapse down the stretch. The next day, Ross Tucker tweeted out about how public perception of Jalen Hurts has fallen way too low because of those last few games. I happen to be in agreement with him about this, […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Dynasty Rankings Update 2024
The Kansas City Chiefs were already a dynasty. But now they’re a Dynasty, capital-D, all rights reserved. After the NFL’s 100th season in 2019, I went back on our old website and attempted to systematically rank every dynasty in the history of the league, casting a wide net to attempt to catch any sustained period […]
author-image
Bryan Knowles
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII DVOA and Quick Reads
The Kansas City Chiefs ended up with a higher DVOA than the San Francisco 49ers in their Super Bowl LVIII win. But as you might imagine given how good the Niners were in the regular season, that’s because of opponent adjustments. As befits a game where the Chiefs recovered six of seven fumbles including both […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII DVOA Preview
Well, here we are again with the question of whether we have to consider Patrick Mahomes as “playoff LeBron.” Does Mahomes specifically raise his game in the playoffs, to the point where we can’t accurately analyze the Super Bowl LVIII matchup because we can’t use past statistics to determine Kansas City’s strengths and weaknesses? Last […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Aaron Schatz’s 2023 NFL Award Ballot
This was my fourth year as an official Associated Press voter for both the All-Pro team and the end-of-season awards. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a long article about my All-Pro votes. With the NFL awards now given out, I wanted to do the same and divulge my award ballot. Sign up for […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII: Learning from the Worst of the Chiefs and 49ers
Teams don’t get to the Super Bowl without playing good football. But not all teams are perfect and there are often bumps along the way. With that, we’ll continue a DVOA tradition of looking at not when the Super Bowl participants played their best, but when they were at their worst. Let’s look at the […]
author-image
FTN
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII Prop Bet Extravaganza
In 2004, the original Scramble for the Ball writers, Ian Dembsky and Al Bogdan, wrote the first Prop Bet Extravaganza at our old website, previewing the upcoming Patriots-Panthers Super Bowl. Twenty years later, the betting landscape has slightly changed. Twenty years ago, actually betting on these things was a bit more challenging. Unless you lived […]
author-image
Bryan Knowles
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
All-Keep Choppin’ Wood Team 2023
Oh, did you think you’d be safe, just because of a little thing like an entire website shutting down? It takes more than that to stop the Woodchoppers from finding you. The All-Keep Choppin’ Wood Team is our annual attempt to sift through the debris of the season that was, pulling out the prime examples […]
author-image
Bryan Knowles
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII Pre-Preview
I’m currently working on my 21st Super Bowl preview. That should run in the middle of next week, a few days before Super Bowl Sunday, but this means waiting more than a week before unveiling all the stat tidbits that get you ready for the big matchup. It was one thing when I was the […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII DVOA Picks
Welcome to Week 22 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Conference Championship DVOA Ratings
Continuing with my traditions from the old site, we’re not going to bother with the full 32-team table of weighted DVOA ratings, since there are only two teams left and most teams haven’t played for three weeks. We’ll just take a quick look at both teams set for Super Bowl LVIII: The San Francisco 49ers […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Conference Championship Quick Reads: Mahomes Magic
Here are the best and worst players of the conference championship games according to our DYAR stats. Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks TotalDYAR PassDYAR RushDYAR Opp 1. Patrick Mahomes KC 30/39 241 1 0 2 147 139 8 BAL Mahomes had 125 passing DYAR before halftime and 13 passing DYAR after […]
author-image
Aaron Schatz
article-thumbnail
NFL DVOA
Lions at 49ers: DVOA Preview
One game more. For the Detroit Lions, this has been a season for wiping out droughts. They entered the year with the longest playoff losing streak, both in terms of games lost (9) and number of seasons since their last win (32); they took care of that against the Rams two weeks ago. They entered […]
author-image
Bryan Knowles