DVOA Articles

NFL DVOA

February 7, 2025

Aaron Schatz’s 2024 NFL Award Ballot

FTN's Aaron Schatz is one of the 50 media members who vote on NFL awards, and here is his reasoning on everything from MVP to Comeback Player of the Year.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

February 5, 2025

Super Bowl LIX: DVOA Preview

Can Steve Spagnuolo blitz Jalen Hurts to death? Can the No. 1 Eagles defense contain Patrick Mahomes? Here's a stat-packed Super Bowl LIX preview.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

February 5, 2025

Super Bowl LIX Prop Bet Extravaganza: From TDs to Taylor

What book will A.J. Brown read on the sideline? Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after a win? You can bet on all of it!

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 30, 2025

Super Bowl LIX Pre-Preview

Emptying the early notebook of stat tidbits about Super Bowl LIX, including why Vic Fangio's past failures against Patrick Mahomes are overstated.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 29, 2025

All-Keep Choppin’ Wood Team 2024

From Deshaun Watson to Diontae Johnson to Haason Reddick, it's the annual look at the players who hurt their teams the most this year, on and off the field.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 27, 2025

Conference Championship Quick Reads

Xavier Worthy has established himself as Kansas City's No. 1 receiver as we go into Super Bowl LIX. Plus: All the DYAR numbers from the conference championships.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 27, 2025

Conference Championship DVOA Ratings

We said the Chiefs couldn't keep winning like this unless they played better. And so, they played better and kept winning.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 24, 2025

2024 NFC Championship Game: DVOA Preview

Can the Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' offense overcome their weak defense? And how healthy is Jalen Hurts right now?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 24, 2025

2024 AFC Championship Game: DVOA Preview

Here we are again: The Bills were the better team in the regular season, but the Chiefs have home-field advantage and that Mahomes Magic.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 22, 2025

The History of NFL Threepeats

What about teams that threepeated before the Super Bowl era, or the teams that failed to do so since 1966?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 21, 2025

Most Aggressive Coaches of 2024

The most aggressive coaches on fourth downs in 2024 included Dan Campbell, Sean McDermott, and... Brian Daboll?

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 20, 2025

Divisional Round Quick Reads: Daniels Flies High

Jayden Daniels had the biggest day of the weekend by DYAR. Plus: Why was Saquon Barkley's DYAR so low with so many yards?

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 20, 2025

NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX Revised as of 1/27/25, through Week 21 Compiled by Mike Harris The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 20, 2025

Divisional Round DVOA: Two Teams Stand Out in Final Four

We're down to the final four, but DVOA clearly sees two teams as clear favorites for Super Bowl LIX: Philadelphia and Buffalo.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 17, 2025

Ravens at Bills: DVOA Preview

Here we go with the MVP Bowl: Two of the best quarterbacks in the league, two of the best teams by DVOA, only one of them can move on to the AFC Championship Game.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 17, 2025

Rams at Eagles: DVOA Preview

Can the Rams stop Saquon Barkley this time? And do their defensive strengths match what the Eagles like to do on offense?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 16, 2025

Texans at Chiefs: DVOA Preview

Last time, the Texans faced the Chiefs, Kansas City controlled the entire game. Can the Houston defense make this rematch different?

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 16, 2025

Commanders at Lions: DVOA Preview

Hide your punters and get out your abacuses out, because we're going deep into the stats on a game with a 55.5-point over/under.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 15, 2025

Jackson vs. Allen Just the Latest MVP Bowl

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will face off, the 13th time that the top two MVP candidates met in the playoffs. Who won in the past?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 14, 2025

Wild Card DVOA: Big Games for Texans and Rams

We've got DVOA updated for the playoffs! Baltimore is still No. 1, but Houston is climbing after one of the year's biggest single wins.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 14, 2025

DVOA Downloads

2024 DVOA Downloads Updated January 27 Historical DVOA Archive Here’s what you will find in these workbooks: ALL BASIC DVOA STATS 1979-2023 Total DVOA with past schedule, variance, estimated wins, and Pythagorean wins. Offensive DVOA with run/pass splits. (Remember, scrambles are passes for the purposes of team DVOA!) Defensive DVOA with run/pass splits. Special Teams […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 13, 2025

Wild-Card Quick Reads: Ladd McConkey and Great Rookie Playoff Games

Ladd McConkey set a rookie receiving yards record for the playoffs. Did he set the DYAR record too? Plus best and worst players of the Wild-Card Weekend.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 13, 2025

Vikings vs. Rams: DVOA Preview

Can a blitzing Vikings defense get to Matthew Stafford, who excelled at getting the ball out quick against blitzes this season? They didn't in Week 8.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 10, 2025

Aaron Schatz: My 2024 All-Pro Ballot

From the Ravens offense to the Eagles line and the Broncos defenders, Aaron Schatz explains his All-Pro votes for 2024.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 10, 2025

Commanders at Buccaneers: DVOA Preview

Offenses should rule the day in this close NFC playoff matchup, with both Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield among the year's best quarterbacks.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 10, 2025

Packers at Eagles: DVOA Preview

The powerful Packers offense hasn't been quite as good against their best opponents, which is a problem against the NFL's No. 1 defense.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 10, 2025

Broncos at Bills: DVOA Preview

The Broncos are back in the playoffs, but they've got a tough draw as the Buffalo Bills try to finally get over the hump and win a title.

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 9, 2025

Steelers at Ravens: DVOA Preview

The Ravens and Steelers split their season series but DVOA says the Ravens were the best team in the league this year, a clear favorite on Saturday night.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 9, 2025

Chargers at Texans: DVOA Preview

The Texans won the AFC South by default, with a poor offense lifted by a strong defense. Can they score enough points to beat the wild-card Chargers?

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 8, 2025

Jackson, Henry, and Kittle Have All-Time DYAR Seasons in 2024

Our annual look at the best and worst players in our DYAR metric is highlighted by huge seasons for Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and George Kittle.

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

January 8, 2025

Eighth Annual Joe Thomas Draft

What if the playoff teams could grab the best players from the other 18 teams, so we could see the best players in the NFL in the postseason?

Bryan Knowles

NFL DVOA

January 6, 2025

Final 2024 DVOA Ratings

The Ravens finish the season No. 1 for the second straight year, while the Lions do something only six other teams have done since 1978.

Aaron Schatz