First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Dvoa NFL Articles
NFL
DVOA
Divisional Round DVOA: Two Teams Stand Out in Final Four
We're down to the final four, but DVOA clearly sees two teams as clear favorites for Super Bowl LIX: Philadelphia and Buffalo.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Wild Card DVOA: Big Games for Texans and Rams
We've got DVOA updated for the playoffs! Baltimore is still No. 1, but Houston is climbing after one of the year's biggest single wins.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Final 2024 DVOA Ratings
The Ravens finish the season No. 1 for the second straight year, while the Lions do something only six other teams have done since 1978.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 17 DVOA: Ravens Keep Climbing
The Baltimore Ravens keep moving up and now rank among the best overall DVOA teams of all time. Yes, we've seen this before.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 16 DVOA: Here Come the Packers
The red hot Packers move up to No. 2 in weighted DVOA as the best team in the league since Week 11. Get all the updated ratings here!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 15 DVOA: Ravens Back on Top
The Lions are out of the top spot, but the Bills aren't in. Instead, DVOA likes the 9-5 Ravens the most. Let's go in depth on why that is.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 DVOA: Lions Hold Their Lead
The Lions fall a bit after a close win over Green Bay but still rank among the top 10 teams in DVOA history. Get all the updated ratings here!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 DVOA: Eagles Defense Keeps Getting Better
The Eagles are up to third in weighted DVOA with their defense playing great since Week 7. Plus: are the Chiefs the worst 11-1 team ever?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 DVOA: Schedules Past and Present
The Lions are still on top, the Eagles are on the rise, plus a look at schedule strength split into offense/defense and past/future.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 11 DVOA: Lions Among Historical Greats
The Lions climb up the ranks and now stand as the No. 3 team in DVOA history through 10 games. Plus, is the Ravens defense... OK?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 10 DVOA: Are 49ers Doomed to Underachieve?
All the latest DVOA ratings, plus a look at whether certain coaches have a history of overperforming or underperforming their PGWE (Post-Game Win Expectancy) numbers.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 9 DVOA: Lions Keep Climbing
The Lions continue to rise on the historical lists. Plus: Chiefs vs. historical 8-0 teams, and a look at pass funnels and run funnels.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 8 DVOA: Lions No. 1 for the First Time Ever
Detroit moves up to No. 1 for the first time in DVOA history after destroying the Titans. Plus: Count down the 10 best special teams games since 1979!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 7 DVOA: Ravens Offense Setting Records
The Ravens move into the top slot with one of the best offenses ever tracked by DVOA. Meanwhile, if it feels like the really bad teams are particularly bad this season, that's because they are.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 6 DVOA: Year of the NFC
The Vikings stay on top, the Lions are No. 2, and the Packers, Bucs, and Falcons move up. It's a big year for the NFC!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 5 DVOA: Chiefs on the Rise
The undefeated Vikings are still on top with the undefeated Chiefs climbing six spots to No. 3.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 4 DVOA: Undefeated Vikings to No. 1
Defense drives the Vikings into the top spot. Plus: the best 2-2 teams in DVOA history, why DVOA and EPA differ on the Commanders, and more!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 3 DVOA: Here Come the Buffalo Bills
The Bills climb to No. 1 with a big Monday night win. Plus: How bad is the Washington defense vs. historically bad defenses?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 2 DVOA: More New Orleans Magic
The Saints continue to dominate early, the Panthers are terrible, the Seahawks have been surprisingly good, and the Chiefs... mediocre?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 1 DVOA: The Saints March In
Just how much does it mean for the New Orleans Saints to destroy a bad opponent in Week 1?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
2024 DVOA Projections
Updated 2024 projections are here, with San Francisco as our Super Bowl LIX favorites.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII DVOA and Quick Reads
The Kansas City Chiefs ended up with a higher DVOA than the San Francisco 49ers in their Super Bowl LVIII win. But as you might imagine given how good the Niners were in the regular season, that’s because of opponent adjustments. As befits a game where the Chiefs recovered six of seven fumbles including both […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Final 2023 DVOA Ratings
The Baltimore Ravens finish the 2023 season on top of the FTN DVOA ratings, followed by the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams dropped a little in Week 18 as they sat many starters, but they still both rank among the top 10 teams ever ranked by DVOA. The Ravens were third before sitting starters and […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 17 DVOA: Ravens No. 3 All-Time
What more is there to say about the Baltimore Ravens? They destroyed the Miami Dolphins yesterday, 56-19, putting up 126% DVOA for the game. Last week, I noted that the Ravens were the first team to ever have three single games in the same season with DVOA over 100%. They are now the first team […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 16 DVOA: Ravens Back to the Top
The Baltimore Ravens won the Christmas DVOA Bowl decisively and are now back into first place in our DVOA ratings. However, the 49ers didn’t fall back as much as you might expect, in part because of opponent adjustments for playing a great Ravens team, and they also still rank among the top teams in DVOA […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 15 DVOA: Merry Christmas DVOA Bowl!
Merry Christmas! Are you ready for the DVOA Bowl? The San Francisco 49ers continued to stomp all over the NFL with a 45-29 victory that was not as close as it looked. The 49ers had 79.6% DVOA for the game even after opponent adjustments for playing the Cardinals. They are listed with 7.5 yards per […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 DVOA: 49ers Now an All-Time Top-5 Team
The San Francisco 49ers continued their winning ways this week, dominating DVOA and every other advanced NFL metric across the Internet. The 49ers are now up to 45.3% DVOA and 47.9% weighted DVOA. They are No. 1 on offense by a ton but also No. 4 on defense. Their special teams are below average, ranked […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 DVOA: 49ers Dominating the NFL
The San Francisco 49ers move into the top spot in DVOA this week after a huge victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers rank as the eighth-best team ever tracked by DVOA through 12 games. However, we also still have the Baltimore Ravens super high, much higher than other advanced metrics. In fact, the Ravens […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 DVOA: Records of the Ravens Run Game
It’s getting tight at the top of our DVOA ratings after 12 weeks of the 2023 NFL season. At the same time, it’s not tight at all. That’s because we have two teams nearly tied and then a huge gap between those two teams and the rest of the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens remain No. […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 11 DVOA: Why DVOA Puts Eagles and Steelers Together
Something is afoot in the state of Pennsylvania, at least when it comes to DVOA ratings. Why do we have Philadelphia so low and Pittsburgh so high? They’re right next to each other, ranked 10th and 11th. Yet the Eagles lead power rankings around the Internet and have the best record in the NFL at […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 10 DVOA: How Real are the Ravens’ Q4 Problems?
The NFL had a record six different games decided by a game-winning field goal on the last play this week. That’s going to usually wreak havoc on the connection between DVOA and win-loss records. In general, fans and commentators will wildly overrate the predictive value of a close win on a last-second field goal. These […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 9 DVOA: Ravens and Browns Approach Historical Greatness
The Cleveland Browns travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens this Sunday at 1pm EST, which is good because this week’s DVOA commentary is going to concentrate on these two franchises. The new Browns and the oLD Browns are both making historical waves. This is the third straight week that the Ravens sit at No. […]
Aaron Schatz
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