Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dvoa NFL Articles
NFL
DVOA
Week 15 DVOA: Ravens Back on Top
The Lions are out of the top spot, but the Bills aren't in. Instead, DVOA likes the 9-5 Ravens the most. Let's go in depth on why that is.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 DVOA: Lions Hold Their Lead
The Lions fall a bit after a close win over Green Bay but still rank among the top 10 teams in DVOA history. Get all the updated ratings here!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 DVOA: Eagles Defense Keeps Getting Better
The Eagles are up to third in weighted DVOA with their defense playing great since Week 7. Plus: are the Chiefs the worst 11-1 team ever?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 DVOA: Schedules Past and Present
The Lions are still on top, the Eagles are on the rise, plus a look at schedule strength split into offense/defense and past/future.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 11 DVOA: Lions Among Historical Greats
The Lions climb up the ranks and now stand as the No. 3 team in DVOA history through 10 games. Plus, is the Ravens defense... OK?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 10 DVOA: Are 49ers Doomed to Underachieve?
All the latest DVOA ratings, plus a look at whether certain coaches have a history of overperforming or underperforming their PGWE (Post-Game Win Expectancy) numbers.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 9 DVOA: Lions Keep Climbing
The Lions continue to rise on the historical lists. Plus: Chiefs vs. historical 8-0 teams, and a look at pass funnels and run funnels.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 8 DVOA: Lions No. 1 for the First Time Ever
Detroit moves up to No. 1 for the first time in DVOA history after destroying the Titans. Plus: Count down the 10 best special teams games since 1979!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 7 DVOA: Ravens Offense Setting Records
The Ravens move into the top slot with one of the best offenses ever tracked by DVOA. Meanwhile, if it feels like the really bad teams are particularly bad this season, that's because they are.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 6 DVOA: Year of the NFC
The Vikings stay on top, the Lions are No. 2, and the Packers, Bucs, and Falcons move up. It's a big year for the NFC!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 5 DVOA: Chiefs on the Rise
The undefeated Vikings are still on top with the undefeated Chiefs climbing six spots to No. 3.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 4 DVOA: Undefeated Vikings to No. 1
Defense drives the Vikings into the top spot. Plus: the best 2-2 teams in DVOA history, why DVOA and EPA differ on the Commanders, and more!
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 3 DVOA: Here Come the Buffalo Bills
The Bills climb to No. 1 with a big Monday night win. Plus: How bad is the Washington defense vs. historically bad defenses?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 2 DVOA: More New Orleans Magic
The Saints continue to dominate early, the Panthers are terrible, the Seahawks have been surprisingly good, and the Chiefs... mediocre?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 1 DVOA: The Saints March In
Just how much does it mean for the New Orleans Saints to destroy a bad opponent in Week 1?
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
2024 DVOA Projections
Updated 2024 projections are here, with San Francisco as our Super Bowl LIX favorites.
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII DVOA and Quick Reads
The Kansas City Chiefs ended up with a higher DVOA than the San Francisco 49ers in their Super Bowl LVIII win. But as you might imagine given how good the Niners were in the regular season, that’s because of opponent adjustments. As befits a game where the Chiefs recovered six of seven fumbles including both […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 17 DVOA: Ravens No. 3 All-Time
What more is there to say about the Baltimore Ravens? They destroyed the Miami Dolphins yesterday, 56-19, putting up 126% DVOA for the game. Last week, I noted that the Ravens were the first team to ever have three single games in the same season with DVOA over 100%. They are now the first team […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 16 DVOA: Ravens Back to the Top
The Baltimore Ravens won the Christmas DVOA Bowl decisively and are now back into first place in our DVOA ratings. However, the 49ers didn’t fall back as much as you might expect, in part because of opponent adjustments for playing a great Ravens team, and they also still rank among the top teams in DVOA […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 15 DVOA: Merry Christmas DVOA Bowl!
Merry Christmas! Are you ready for the DVOA Bowl? The San Francisco 49ers continued to stomp all over the NFL with a 45-29 victory that was not as close as it looked. The 49ers had 79.6% DVOA for the game even after opponent adjustments for playing the Cardinals. They are listed with 7.5 yards per […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 14 DVOA: 49ers Now an All-Time Top-5 Team
The San Francisco 49ers continued their winning ways this week, dominating DVOA and every other advanced NFL metric across the Internet. The 49ers are now up to 45.3% DVOA and 47.9% weighted DVOA. They are No. 1 on offense by a ton but also No. 4 on defense. Their special teams are below average, ranked […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 13 DVOA: 49ers Dominating the NFL
The San Francisco 49ers move into the top spot in DVOA this week after a huge victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers rank as the eighth-best team ever tracked by DVOA through 12 games. However, we also still have the Baltimore Ravens super high, much higher than other advanced metrics. In fact, the Ravens […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 12 DVOA: Records of the Ravens Run Game
It’s getting tight at the top of our DVOA ratings after 12 weeks of the 2023 NFL season. At the same time, it’s not tight at all. That’s because we have two teams nearly tied and then a huge gap between those two teams and the rest of the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens remain No. […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 11 DVOA: Why DVOA Puts Eagles and Steelers Together
Something is afoot in the state of Pennsylvania, at least when it comes to DVOA ratings. Why do we have Philadelphia so low and Pittsburgh so high? They’re right next to each other, ranked 10th and 11th. Yet the Eagles lead power rankings around the Internet and have the best record in the NFL at […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 10 DVOA: How Real are the Ravens’ Q4 Problems?
The NFL had a record six different games decided by a game-winning field goal on the last play this week. That’s going to usually wreak havoc on the connection between DVOA and win-loss records. In general, fans and commentators will wildly overrate the predictive value of a close win on a last-second field goal. These […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 9 DVOA: Ravens and Browns Approach Historical Greatness
The Cleveland Browns travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens this Sunday at 1pm EST, which is good because this week’s DVOA commentary is going to concentrate on these two franchises. The new Browns and the oLD Browns are both making historical waves. This is the third straight week that the Ravens sit at No. […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 8 DVOA: Ravens Extend First-Place Lead
The Baltimore Ravens remain No. 1 in DVOA after this week’s 31-24 victory over the Cardinals. With San Francisco and Kansas City losing this week, the Ravens have now opened a huge lead over the rest of the league, more than 10 percentage points. San Francisco remains second, with Kansas City dropping one spot into […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 7 DVOA: Ravens Climb to No. 1 after Week of Upsets
We thought Week 6 was Upset Week in the NFL, but Week 7 really was Upset Week. Last week’s top four teams in DVOA all lost this weekend: San Francisco, Detroit, Buffalo, and Miami. Baltimore’s victory over Detroit was so gigantic that the Ravens leaped up 15 percentage points of DVOA and now hold the […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 6 DVOA: Lions Move to No. 2
A week of upsets and near-upsets are probably shaking up power rankings all over the Internet. Over here with DVOA ratings, we don’t have as much of a shakeup. First of all, Week 6 represented just one week out of six, and DVOA stays away from recency bias. Second, the San Francisco 49ers were so […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 5 DVOA: 49ers Join the Hunt for Historical Greatness
Like probably every power rating around the Internet, both statistical and subjective, DVOA has the San Francisco 49ers on top after their huge 42-10 victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. The surprise around here instead is the relatively small gap between the unbeaten 49ers and the 3-2 Buffalo Bills. Let’s heap some praise […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 4 DVOA: Buffalo Bills Greatest 3-1 Team Ever
Daniel Kelley wrote yesterday about the NFL storylines we would be talking about if Weeks 1-2 had never happened. Well, what if just Week 1 had never happened? If the Buffalo Bills had not lost to the Zach Wilson-led Jets on Monday Night Football, would we be talking about them the way we talked about […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Week 3 DVOA: Miami Dolphins Break Offensive Records
The Miami Dolphins offense is a steamroller. You will not be surprised to learn that the Dolphins now have the best offensive DVOA we’ve ever measured through three games. But you might be surprised by: Just how much the Dolphins are ahead of every other team in DVOA history; Yet the Dolphins did not have […]
Aaron Schatz
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