NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX

Revised as of 9/10/24, through Week 1

Compiled by Mike Harris

The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)

Green Bay’s DVOA is significantly penalized in Weeks 2-4, giving Jordan Love a 40% chance of returning for Week 5, a 60% chance of returning for Week 6, and an 80% chance of returning for Week 7. He returns by Week 8 in all simulations.

Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

NFC East

Team	W-L	PROJ DVOA	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
DAL	1-0	14.4%	11.6	87.2%	23.2%	18.7%	15.7%	13.8%	6.4%	5.1%	4.3%	71.4%	15.8%
PHI	1-0	-1.0%	9.4	56.7%	4.8%	6.1%	6.3%	7.2%	11.3%	11.2%	9.8%	24.4%	32.3%
WAS	0-1	-19.9%	5.8	7.9%	0.1%	0.3%	0.6%	1.3%	0.9%	1.8%	2.8%	2.3%	5.6%
NYG	0-1	-19.0%	5.3	5.7%	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	1.1%	0.6%	1.3%	2.0%	1.8%	3.9%

NFC North

Team	W-L	PROJ DVOA	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
DET	1-0	10.7%	10.2	68.8%	9.4%	11.0%	12.5%	12.9%	7.7%	8.0%	7.4%	45.7%	23.1%
MIN	1-0	2.2%	9.7	60.3%	6.3%	8.2%	9.9%	10.2%	8.2%	8.5%	8.9%	34.7%	25.7%
CHI	1-0	-10.0%	7.5	23.6%	0.8%	1.7%	2.8%	4.2%	3.3%	4.7%	6.2%	9.4%	14.2%
GB	0-1	5.8%	7.2	22.6%	0.7%	1.8%	3.1%	4.6%	2.7%	4.2%	5.5%	10.2%	12.4%

NFC South

Team	W-L	PROJ DVOA	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
NO	1-0	9.3%	10.9	79.2%	13.8%	15.4%	15.1%	14.4%	7.4%	6.7%	6.4%	58.8%	20.5%
TB	1-0	1.3%	9.3	53.1%	4.8%	6.1%	7.4%	8.3%	8.4%	9.2%	9.0%	26.6%	26.5%
ATL	0-1	-4.9%	7.7	30.2%	1.5%	2.6%	3.6%	4.6%	4.9%	6.0%	7.0%	12.3%	17.9%
CAR	0-1	-19.4%	5.9	8.8%	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	1.2%	1.3%	2.1%	3.0%	2.3%	6.5%

NFC West

Team	W-L	PROJ DVOA	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
SF	1-0	22.5%	11.6	85.9%	24.9%	16.9%	12.0%	7.8%	11.3%	7.7%	5.4%	61.5%	24.4%
SEA	1-0	8.1%	10.0	63.6%	7.6%	7.6%	6.2%	4.8%	16.1%	11.8%	9.4%	26.2%	37.4%
LAR	0-1	3.4%	8.2	34.7%	1.7%	2.8%	2.9%	2.7%	7.3%	8.5%	8.8%	10.0%	24.7%
ARI	0-1	-11.9%	6.3	11.6%	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%	1.0%	2.2%	3.1%	4.0%	2.3%	9.3%

AFC East

Team	W-L	PROJ DVOA	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
MIA	1-0	10.1%	10.2	71.1%	11.9%	11.6%	9.9%	7.0%	13.0%	9.8%	8.0%	40.4%	30.8%
BUF	1-0	12.4%	9.9	66.7%	11.4%	10.4%	8.9%	6.9%	11.7%	9.3%	8.0%	37.6%	29.1%
NYJ	0-1	0.5%	7.8	33.3%	2.2%	3.3%	3.2%	2.9%	6.7%	7.6%	7.5%	11.6%	21.7%
NE	1-0	-7.2%	7.8	32.1%	2.0%	3.0%	3.0%	2.4%	6.6%	7.4%	7.6%	10.4%	21.7%

AFC North

Team	W-L	PROJ DVOA	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
BAL	0-1	15.7%	10.1	70.0%	9.7%	12.5%	12.2%	10.0%	9.3%	8.6%	7.7%	44.4%	25.6%
CIN	0-1	6.2%	9.1	51.6%	4.3%	6.4%	7.8%	7.6%	7.8%	8.8%	8.8%	26.2%	25.4%
PIT	1-0	-6.6%	8.4	37.7%	2.9%	4.1%	4.6%	4.3%	7.0%	7.3%	7.6%	15.8%	21.8%
CLE	0-1	0.3%	7.9	34.0%	2.4%	3.4%	3.8%	3.9%	6.4%	6.9%	7.2%	13.6%	20.4%

AFC South

Team	W-L	PROJ DVOA	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
HOU	1-0	14.0%	10.8	81.2%	19.0%	16.0%	15.6%	17.2%	4.7%	4.6%	4.1%	67.8%	13.4%
JAX	0-1	1.6%	8.1	37.1%	2.0%	3.1%	4.8%	7.0%	6.3%	6.4%	7.4%	17.0%	20.1%
TEN	0-1	-7.5%	6.9	21.5%	0.9%	1.4%	2.4%	4.2%	3.3%	4.2%	5.1%	8.9%	12.6%
IND	0-1	-9.8%	6.8	18.5%	0.6%	1.1%	1.8%	2.7%	3.4%	4.1%	4.7%	6.3%	12.2%

AFC West

Team	W-L	PROJ DVOA	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
KC	1-0	15.5%	11.5	89.0%	28.3%	19.7%	16.5%	15.0%	3.4%	3.3%	2.7%	79.5%	9.4%
LAC	1-0	-10.6%	7.8	30.7%	1.7%	2.5%	3.1%	4.5%	6.1%	6.2%	6.7%	11.8%	19.0%
LV	0-1	-9.1%	6.6	15.7%	0.4%	0.9%	1.5%	2.4%	2.7%	3.5%	4.2%	5.3%	10.4%
DEN	0-1	-16.4%	5.8	9.9%	0.3%	0.4%	0.9%	1.9%	1.4%	2.2%	2.8%	3.5%	6.4%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

Reaching the Conference Championship Game
Winning the Conference Championship Game
Winning the Super Bowl

Team	Conf App	Conf Win	SB Win	17-0
SF	44.3%	28.5%	16.9%	0.5%
KC	42.2%	24.2%	13.0%	0.3%
DAL	37.1%	20.4%	10.7%	0.3%
HOU	34.0%	18.4%	9.6%	0.2%
BAL	26.2%	14.4%	7.7%	0.0%
NO	26.2%	12.3%	6.1%	0.2%
BUF	22.7%	11.9%	5.8%	0.0%
MIA	23.2%	11.5%	5.5%	0.1%
DET	22.3%	10.8%	5.4%	0.1%
SEA	16.7%	7.8%	3.7%	0.1%
CIN	12.6%	5.7%	2.5%	0.0%
MIN	13.8%	5.4%	2.2%	0.0%
TB	10.4%	4.1%	1.7%	0.0%
PHI	9.7%	3.7%	1.5%	0.0%
LAR	6.2%	2.5%	1.1%	0.0%
JAX	6.9%	2.8%	1.1%	0.0%
CLE	6.2%	2.5%	0.9%	0.0%
NYJ	6.1%	2.4%	0.9%	0.0%
GB	4.7%	2.0%	0.8%	0.0%
PIT	5.3%	1.8%	0.6%	0.0%
NE	4.1%	1.3%	0.5%	0.0%
ATL	4.0%	1.2%	0.4%	0.0%
TEN	2.6%	0.8%	0.3%	0.0%
LAC	3.4%	1.0%	0.3%	0.0%
CHI	2.7%	0.8%	0.3%	0.0%
IND	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%
LV	1.7%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%

On the Clock

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Does not account for traded picks.

Team	Top Pick	Top 5 Pick
NYG	14.4%	50.6%
WAS	13.0%	47.0%
CAR	13.1%	46.6%
DEN	11.2%	44.7%
ARI	7.2%	34.0%
IND	6.9%	31.1%
LV	5.6%	30.2%
TEN	4.6%	26.8%
CHI	2.9%	20.4%
GB	2.9%	19.7%
LAC	2.8%	19.2%
ATL	2.9%	17.3%
NYJ	1.8%	14.3%
NE	1.6%	14.3%
JAX	1.9%	13.6%
CLE	1.9%	13.6%
PIT	1.4%	12.0%
LAR	1.0%	9.6%
CIN	0.8%	6.9%
PHI	0.5%	5.2%
TB	0.3%	4.6%
MIN	0.3%	4.1%
SEA	0.2%	2.7%
MIA	0.2%	2.2%
BUF	0.1%	2.1%
BAL	0.1%	2.0%
DET	0.1%	1.8%
NO	0.1%	1.3%
HOU	0.1%	1.0%
DAL	0.0%	0.5%
KC	0.0%	0.5%
SF	0.0%	0.2%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several “special” Super Bowl matchups. Not all possible Super Bowls are included.

Name	Teams	Chance
Super Bowls LIV-LVIII Rematch	SF vs KC	7.0%
Demeco Ryans Reunion Special	SF vs HOU	5.3%
1960 Double Dallas Showdown	DAL vs KC	5.0%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch	SF vs BAL	4.3%
Texas Bowl	DAL vs HOU	3.7%
Chris Berman’s Dream	SF vs BUF	3.3%
Super Bowl XIX Rematch	SF vs MIA	3.1%
Tyrann Mathieu Reunion Special	NO vs KC	3.0%
Super Bowl V Sort-of Rematch	DAL vs BAL	2.9%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch	DAL vs BUF	2.5%
Super Bowl VI Rematch	DAL vs MIA	2.3%
Gulf Coast Challenge	NO vs HOU	2.2%
David Simon Crossover Bowl	NO vs BAL	1.8%
Terron Armstead Reunion Special	NO vs MIA	1.5%
Super Bowls XXIII-XVI Rematch	SF vs CIN	1.5%
Super Bowl IV Rematch	MIN vs KC	1.4%
Lake Erie Bowl	DET vs BUF	1.4%
Dan Campbell Reunion Special	DET vs MIA	1.2%
Chili Cookoff	DAL vs CIN	1.2%
Danielle Hunter Reunion Special	MIN vs HOU	1.1%
Mike Macdonald Reunion Special	SEA vs BAL	1.0%
Super Bowl LV Rematch	TB vs KC	1.0%
Super Bowl LVII Rematch	PHI vs KC	0.9%
Trent Baalke Reunion Special	SF vs JAX	0.8%
Purple Reign	MIN vs BAL	0.8%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat	NO vs CIN	0.7%
Robert Saleh Reunion Special	SF vs NYJ	0.7%
AAFC Memorial Bowl	SF vs CLE	0.7%
Super Bowl VIII Rematch	MIN vs MIA	0.6%
Amari Cooper Reunion Special	DAL vs CLE	0.6%
Missouri Revenge Bowl	LAR vs KC	0.6%
Florida Bowl (South)	TB vs MIA	0.5%
Fifth Time’s The Charm	MIN vs BUF	0.5%
LeSean McCoy Classic	PHI vs BUF	0.5%
Tyron Smith Reunion Special	DAL vs NYJ	0.5%
The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam	PHI vs BAL	0.5%
Ace Ventura Bowl	PHI vs MIA	0.4%
Super Bowl I Rematch	GB vs KC	0.4%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch	DAL vs PIT	0.4%
Super Bowl XXIX Rematch	SF vs LAC	0.3%
A Song of Ice and Fire	GB vs MIA	0.3%
Von Miller Reunion Special	LAR vs BUF	0.3%
Battle of the Dynasties	DAL vs NE	0.3%
Hell Freezes Over	DET vs CLE	0.3%
Odell Beckham Reunion Special	LAR vs MIA	0.2%
Blue Cheese Bowl	GB vs BUF	0.2%
DeForest Buckner Reunion Special	SF vs IND	0.2%
2019 Peach Bowl Rematch	PHI vs CIN	0.2%
Super Bowl LVI Rematch	LAR vs CIN	0.2%
Florida Bowl (North)	TB vs JAX	0.1%
Calais Campbell Reunion Special	ATL vs MIA	0.1%
Roquan Smith Reunion Special	CHI vs BAL	0.1%
Kevin Stefanski Reunion Special	MIN vs CLE	0.1%
Doug Pederson Reunion Special	PHI vs JAX	0.1%
Super Bowl XL Rematch	SEA vs PIT	0.1%
Super Bowl IX Rematch	MIN vs PIT	0.1%
Super Bowl V Rematch	DAL vs IND	0.1%
Haason Reddick Reunion Special	PHI vs NYJ	0.1%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch	NO vs IND	0.1%
Randy Moss Classic	MIN vs NE	0.1%
Todd Bowles Reunion Special	TB vs NYJ	0.1%
Jessie Bates Reunion Special	ATL vs CIN	0.1%
Keystone Bowl	PHI vs PIT	0.1%
Super Bowl XXIV Rematch	SF vs DEN	0.1%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch	LAR vs PIT	0.1%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch	PHI vs NE	0.1%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch	SEA vs NE	0.1%
Return of the Rams	LAR vs CLE	0.1%