First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX
Revised as of 1/27/25, through Week 21
Compiled by Mike Harris
The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the WEIGHTED DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)
Week 18 is not included for Kansas City, Philadelphia, or Buffalo. Philadelphia’s offensive rating is further adjusted for games missed by Jalen Hurts in Weeks 16-17.
Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
