NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX

Revised as of 11/19/24, through Week 11

Compiled by Mike Harris

The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)

Cleveland Browns DVOA is boosted for the quarterback change to Jameis Winston.

Dallas Cowboys DVOA is penalized for the loss of Dak Prescott.

Los Angeles Rams DVOA is boosted for the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

Miami Dolphins DVOA is boosted for the return of Tua Tagovailoa.

New Orleans Saints DVOA is boosted for the return of Derek Carr.

Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

NFC East

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
PHI	8-2	17.5%	12.6	98.9%	7.8%	66.0%	4.4%	0.6%	7.2%	9.5%	3.5%	78.8%	20.1%
WAS	7-4	10.9%	11.2	91.1%	1.0%	18.8%	1.1%	0.2%	17.5%	34.6%	17.8%	21.2%	69.9%
DAL	3-7	-25.3%	5.2	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
NYG	2-8	-18.1%	4.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

NFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
DET	9-1	42.0%	14.6	100.0%	85.8%	6.9%	0.1%	0.0%	5.9%	1.0%	0.2%	92.9%	7.1%
MIN	8-2	13.3%	12.2	94.8%	4.7%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%	51.9%	23.1%	13.8%	6.0%	88.8%
GB	7-3	12.4%	10.8	76.9%	0.6%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	16.6%	24.2%	34.9%	1.1%	75.7%
CHI	4-6	-15.3%	5.5	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%

NFC South

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
ATL	6-5	-5.2%	9.1	69.8%	0.0%	1.6%	18.5%	47.9%	0.0%	0.2%	1.6%	68.0%	1.8%
TB	4-6	2.0%	8.6	35.6%	0.0%	0.3%	8.8%	18.2%	0.3%	1.8%	6.2%	27.2%	8.4%
NO	4-7	1.9%	7.2	6.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	3.7%	0.0%	0.5%	1.6%	4.6%	2.2%
CAR	3-7	-34.9%	4.5	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%

NFC West

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
ARI	6-4	8.6%	10.1	65.2%	0.1%	3.1%	41.6%	16.7%	0.1%	0.5%	3.2%	61.5%	3.7%
SF	5-5	19.1%	8.9	26.6%	0.0%	0.6%	10.2%	3.7%	0.3%	2.8%	9.0%	14.6%	12.0%
LAR	5-5	4.0%	8.3	17.8%	0.0%	0.6%	6.7%	6.1%	0.1%	0.9%	3.5%	13.3%	4.4%
SEA	5-5	-0.8%	8.2	16.2%	0.0%	0.2%	7.7%	2.8%	0.1%	0.9%	4.5%	10.6%	5.6%

AFC East

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
BUF	9-2	22.0%	13.0	100.0%	33.9%	37.1%	22.3%	6.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
MIA	4-6	2.5%	7.7	16.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	3.9%	11.3%	0.0%	16.0%
NYJ	3-8	-10.2%	5.3	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
NE	3-8	-30.9%	4.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

AFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
BAL	7-4	33.6%	11.5	98.1%	1.4%	13.6%	23.1%	9.1%	24.6%	20.3%	6.0%	47.3%	50.8%
PIT	8-2	6.7%	11.5	95.9%	7.5%	11.8%	22.0%	11.3%	20.4%	15.9%	6.9%	52.6%	43.3%
CIN	4-7	2.8%	7.5	10.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	2.5%	7.4%	0.1%	10.4%
CLE	2-8	-16.9%	3.8	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%

AFC South

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
HOU	7-4	13.7%	10.7	98.2%	2.4%	7.9%	20.6%	66.5%	0.0%	0.2%	0.6%	97.4%	0.8%
IND	5-6	-8.0%	7.9	20.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	2.2%	0.9%	4.5%	13.0%	2.3%	18.4%
JAX	2-9	-13.4%	5.0	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
TEN	2-8	-24.2%	4.0	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%

AFC West

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
KC	9-1	20.0%	13.8	100.0%	53.1%	26.6%	9.1%	2.6%	6.7%	1.4%	0.4%	91.4%	8.5%
LAC	7-3	9.8%	11.0	93.1%	1.8%	2.9%	2.4%	0.9%	37.5%	31.8%	15.7%	7.9%	85.1%
DEN	6-5	12.1%	9.8	66.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.2%	8.6%	19.4%	38.2%	0.6%	66.2%
LV	2-8	-25.7%	3.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

Reaching the Conference Championship Game
Winning the Conference Championship Game
Winning the Super Bowl

Team	Conf App	Conf Win	SB Win
DET	79.2%	63.7%	42.6%
BAL	40.8%	24.4%	12.5%
KC	50.3%	27.2%	11.0%
BUF	46.9%	25.5%	10.7%
PHI	38.9%	12.9%	6.0%
HOU	22.9%	9.2%	3.3%
MIN	17.9%	5.8%	2.6%
WAS	16.3%	4.8%	2.0%
PIT	15.9%	5.9%	1.6%
ARI	14.3%	3.7%	1.5%
GB	10.0%	3.4%	1.4%
LAC	12.0%	4.3%	1.4%
DEN	8.3%	2.8%	1.0%
SF	6.5%	2.2%	1.0%
ATL	7.2%	1.3%	0.4%
TB	4.6%	1.1%	0.4%
LAR	2.7%	0.6%	0.2%
SEA	1.7%	0.3%	0.1%
MIA	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%

On the Clock

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Does not account for traded picks.

Team	Top Pick	Top 5 Pick
NE	18.9%	78.0%
CLE	17.9%	70.0%
TEN	18.2%	65.5%
LV	15.1%	64.0%
CAR	7.2%	57.6%
NYG	10.3%	53.2%
JAX	9.5%	45.7%
NYJ	1.8%	27.9%
DAL	1.0%	21.9%
CHI	0.0%	8.0%
NO	0.0%	2.8%
MIA	0.1%	2.7%
CIN	0.0%	1.9%
IND	0.0%	0.5%
TB	0.0%	0.2%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several “special” Super Bowl matchups. Not all possible Super Bowls are included.

Name	Teams	Chance
Gunther Cunningham Classic	DET vs KC	17.5%
Lake Erie Bowl	DET vs BUF	16.2%
Haloti Ngata Classic	DET vs BAL	15.4%
Glover Quin Classic	DET vs HOU	5.8%
Super Bowl LVII Rematch	PHI vs KC	3.5%
LeSean McCoy Classic	PHI vs BUF	3.3%
The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam	PHI vs BAL	3.1%
Super Bowl IV Rematch	MIN vs KC	1.6%
Fifth Time’s The Charm	MIN vs BUF	1.5%
Purple Reign	MIN vs BAL	1.3%
Commander ‘n’ Chief Bowl	WAS vs KC	1.3%
Super Bowl XXVI Rematch	WAS vs BUF	1.2%
Beltway Bowl	WAS vs BAL	1.2%
Hollywood Brown Reunion Special	ARI vs KC	1.0%
Hail Murray Rematch	ARI vs BUF	0.9%
Super Bowl I Rematch	GB vs KC	0.8%
Blue Cheese Bowl	GB vs BUF	0.8%
Keystone Bowl	PHI vs PIT	0.7%
Super Bowls LIV-LVIII Rematch	SF vs KC	0.6%
Danielle Hunter Reunion Special	MIN vs HOU	0.6%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch	SF vs BAL	0.5%
Chris Berman’s Dream	SF vs BUF	0.5%
No. 2 Overall QB Showdown	WAS vs HOU	0.4%
Super Bowl IX Rematch	MIN vs PIT	0.3%
Super Bowl LV Rematch	TB vs KC	0.3%
Demeco Ryans Reunion Special	SF vs HOU	0.2%
Super Bowl XLIII Rematch	ARI vs PIT	0.2%
Dan Campbell Reunion Special	DET vs MIA	0.2%
Von Miller Reunion Special	LAR vs BUF	0.2%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch	GB vs PIT	0.2%
Super Bowl XXII Rematch	WAS vs DEN	0.1%
Missouri Revenge Bowl	LAR vs KC	0.1%
Super Bowl XXIX Rematch	SF vs LAC	0.1%
Mike Macdonald Reunion Special	SEA vs BAL	0.1%
D.J. Reader Reunion Special	DET vs CIN	0.1%
Super Bowl XXXII Rematch	GB vs DEN	0.1%
Super Bowl XXIV Rematch	SF vs DEN	0.1%
Hot Sauce Challenge (Frank’s vs. Tabasco)	NO vs BUF	0.1%
Ace Ventura Bowl	PHI vs MIA	0.1%
Tyrann Mathieu Reunion Special	NO vs KC	0.1%