Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX
Revised as of 12/31/24, through Week 17
Compiled by Mike Harris
The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the WEIGHTED DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)
The following teams have ratings that are adjusted for their current starting quarterbacks: Atlanta, Carolina, Cleveland, Dallas, Jacksonville, Miami, New England, New Orleans, New York Giants, and Pittsburgh.
Detroit’s rating is penalized due to current defensive injuries.
Buffalo, Houston, Kansas City, and Philadelphia sit starters in all Week 18 simulations. The Philadelphia penalty is smaller in case they play Saquon Barkley in an attempt to get the rushing record.
Miami’s rating is penalized for Tua Tagovailoa’s injury in 80% of simulations.
Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
NFC East
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 13-3 | 34.5% | 13.9 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| WAS | 11-5 | 15.7% | 11.6 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 65.9% | 34.1% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| DAL | 7-9 | -6.1% | 7.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NYG | 3-13 | -35.3% | 3.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC North
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14-2 | 20.0% | 14.6 | 100.0% | 63.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| MIN | 14-2 | 15.1% | 14.4 | 100.0% | 36.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 63.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| GB | 11-5 | 30.5% | 11.9 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.1% | 65.9% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| CHI | 4-12 | -14.4% | 4.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC South
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 9-7 | 9.2% | 9.9 | 92.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.8% | 66.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 92.6% | 0.0% |
| ATL | 8-8 | -8.6% | 8.7 | 7.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| NO | 5-11 | -41.4% | 5.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CAR | 4-12 | -27.2% | 4.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC West
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 10-6 | 12.3% | 10.7 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 74.2% | 25.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| SEA | 9-7 | -3.1% | 9.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ARI | 7-9 | 0.0% | 7.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SF | 6-10 | 6.9% | 6.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC East
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 13-3 | 29.8% | 13.7 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| MIA | 8-8 | 10.7% | 8.6 | 14.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 14.6% |
| NYJ | 4-12 | -16.9% | 4.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NE | 3-13 | -32.2% | 3.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC North
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 11-5 | 38.2% | 12.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 97.1% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 97.1% | 2.9% |
| PIT | 10-6 | 5.0% | 10.6 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 68.5% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 97.1% |
| CIN | 8-8 | 5.1% | 8.4 | 4.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.6% | 0.0% | 4.6% |
| CLE | 3-13 | -37.5% | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC South
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 9-7 | 1.2% | 9.5 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| IND | 7-9 | -9.7% | 7.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| JAX | 4-12 | -19.2% | 4.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TEN | 3-13 | -35.8% | 3.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC West
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 15-1 | 24.7% | 15.3 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| LAC | 10-6 | 13.6% | 10.7 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 71.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| DEN | 9-7 | 13.9% | 9.7 | 80.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 80.8% | 0.0% | 80.8% |
| LV | 4-12 | -14.6% | 4.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 72.9% | 39.1% | 20.0% |
| PHI | 52.1% | 32.8% | 18.3% |
| BAL | 46.1% | 28.1% | 17.6% |
| BUF | 42.3% | 22.5% | 12.3% |
| DET | 44.7% | 23.3% | 9.8% |
| GB | 23.6% | 12.3% | 6.5% |
| MIN | 30.3% | 13.4% | 5.2% |
| LAR | 18.3% | 7.5% | 2.6% |
| WAS | 15.6% | 5.5% | 2.3% |
| TB | 14.9% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| LAC | 10.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| DEN | 6.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| PIT | 9.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| HOU | 11.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| MIA | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
On the Clock
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Does not account for traded picks.
| Team | Top Pick | Top 5 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| NE | 71.5% | 100.0% |
| CLE | 13.5% | 96.7% |
| NYG | 0.7% | 90.6% |
| TEN | 14.4% | 68.5% |
| JAX | 0.0% | 66.5% |
| CAR | 0.0% | 50.1% |
| NYJ | 0.0% | 23.3% |
| LV | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| CHI | 0.0% | 1.0% |
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several “special” Super Bowl matchups. Not all possible Super Bowls are included.
| Name | Teams | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl LVII Rematch | PHI vs KC | 13.1% |
| The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam | PHI vs BAL | 9.2% |
| Gunther Cunningham Classic | DET vs KC | 8.9% |
| LeSean McCoy Classic | PHI vs BUF | 7.3% |
| Haloti Ngata Classic | DET vs BAL | 6.8% |
| Super Bowl IV Rematch | MIN vs KC | 5.3% |
| Lake Erie Bowl | DET vs BUF | 5.3% |
| Super Bowl I Rematch | GB vs KC | 4.8% |
| Purple Reign | MIN vs BAL | 3.8% |
| Battle of the (Old) Bays | GB vs BAL | 3.4% |
| Fifth Time’s The Charm | MIN vs BUF | 3.0% |
| Missouri Revenge Bowl | LAR vs KC | 2.8% |
| Blue Cheese Bowl | GB vs BUF | 2.7% |
| Tony Banks Classic | LAR vs BAL | 2.1% |
| Commander ‘n’ Chief Bowl | WAS vs KC | 2.1% |
| Super Bowl LV Rematch | TB vs KC | 2.0% |
| Von Miller Reunion Special | LAR vs BUF | 1.7% |
| Beltway Bowl | WAS vs BAL | 1.5% |
| Super Bowl XXVI Rematch | WAS vs BUF | 1.3% |
| DeMeco Ryans Reunion Special | PHI vs HOU | 0.8% |
| Keystone Bowl | PHI vs PIT | 0.8% |
| Glover Quin Classic | DET vs HOU | 0.6% |
| 8-Mile High Bowl | DET vs DEN | 0.5% |
| Bobby Layne Classic | DET vs PIT | 0.4% |
| Super Bowl XLV Rematch | GB vs PIT | 0.3% |
| Danielle Hunter Reunion Special | MIN vs HOU | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XXXII Rematch | GB vs DEN | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl IX Rematch | MIN vs PIT | 0.3% |
| Fight for L.A. | LAR vs LAC | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XIV Rematch | LAR vs PIT | 0.2% |
| No. 2 Overall QB Showdown | WAS vs HOU | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XXII Rematch | WAS vs DEN | 0.1% |
| Ace Ventura Bowl | PHI vs MIA | 0.1% |
| Dan Campbell Reunion Special | DET vs MIA | 0.1% |
