2024 MLB Season Preview: American League

There are at least another eight months of “World Series champion Texas Rangers,” and as a long-suffering Rangers fan, I’m going to soak up those eight months of the 2024 MLB season like mad. The Rangers might win again! They also might win 70 games. Either way, I don’t care, because I remember jumping around my living room on the first night of November celebrating my favorite team winning the title for the first time ever.

Someone is going to get to do that this year. Maybe someone new, maybe not. Either way, we are less than eight months away from some fandom running around its collective living room in celebration, and that’s just great.

So as we speed toward the start of the 2024 baseball season, yesterday and today I’m looking at every team around the league and consider best- and worst-case scenario for each one. National League Monday, American League today.

2024 Major League Baseball Preview: American League

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

2023 results: 101-61, AL East champion, lost in ALDS
Biggest additions: Corbin Burnes, Craig Kimbrel
Biggest subtractions: DL Hall, Joey Ortiz, Jack Flaherty, Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, Shintaro Fujinami, Jorge López, Austin Voth, Aaron Hicks, Mychal Givens

Best-Case Scenario

Corbin Burnes rebounds from a (slightly) down 2023, and he and Grayson Rodriguez form a championship-level 1-2 punch atop the rotation, while all those young bats (so many) gel, and the Orioles go 109-53 and top the Dodgers for the World Series title. Oh, and new ownership opens and the coffers and starts extending all those young guys.

Worst-Case Scenario

Craig Kimbrel shows why each of his last four teams has willingly pulled the plug on him as closer, but the Orioles do it later than they should. Kyle Bradish misses the season, while Burnes’ dropped K rate and increased walk rate last year continue and make him a mediocre pitcher (while Joey Ortiz is a stud in Milwaukee). Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg aren’t up to the task, and the Orioles go 86-76 and bow out of the playoffs quickly.

Funniest Scenario

The Orioles open the season with three games apiece against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers, Twins, Royals, Angels and A’s before a four-gamer against the Yankees to close out April. That’s 27 games during which they could easily go … 18-9? But man, imagine like 23-4, 24-3. Against that slate, it’s not outlandish, and the content would be going nuts.

Actual Prediction

97-65, AL East champion, lose in ALCS

Tampa Bay Rays

2023 results: 99-63, second in AL East, No. 1 Wild Card, lost in ALWCS
Biggest additions: José Caballero, Amed Rosario, Jonny DeLuca, Ryan Pepiot, Phil Maton, Tyler Alexander, Jake Odorizzi
Biggest subtractions: Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot, Robert Stephenson, Luke Raley, Vidal Bruján

Best-Case Scenario

The pitchers stop getting hurt. Junior Caminero comes back up as early as possible and contends for Rookie of the Year. The Rays mix and match their way to 96-66, an East title and the ALCS.

Worst-Case Scenario

The rotation is already, as I write this, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot and Tyler Alexander, and there aren’t the minor-league reinforcements there usually are. The loss of Wander Franco has left a hole in the lineup. There’s a very real path where these Rays have a disaster season and fall to 76-86.

Funniest Scenario

The Rays, who traded Chris Archer for Tyler Glasnow and saw Glasnow immediately pitch better than Archer, immediately see Ryan Pepiot pitch better than Tyler Glasnow after trading Glasnow. It’s a neverending cycle.

Actual Prediction

85-77, second in AL East, No. 3 Wild Card, lose in ALWCS

New York Yankees

2023 results: 82-80, fourth in AL East
Biggest additions: Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, Trent Grisham, Marcus Stroman, Caleb Ferguson, Victor González, Cody Poteet
Biggest subtractions: Wandy Peralta, Kyle Higashioka, Randy Vásquez, Michael King, Jhony Brito, Drew Thorpe, Jake Bauers, Frankie Montas, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Luis Severino, Keynan Middleton, Domingo Germán

Best-Case Scenario

Juan Soto wins the MVP, narrowly holding off Aaron Judge. Gerrit Cole misses the minimum time and looks like himself when he comes back. Carlos Rodón’s career ERA chart (8.22 to 2.37 to 2.88 to 6.85 the last four years) moves back to the good this year, and the Yankees win the division at 93-69 and make it to the ALCS.

Worst-Case Scenario

Cole’s out for the year. Rodon doesn’t rebound, and Marcus Stroman struggles as a Yankee. It turns out Anthony Rizzo’s 2023 struggles weren’t just concussion-related, Giancarlo Stanton still can’t stay healthy, and Judge’s giant body starts to break. The Yankees slip all the way to 72-90.

Funniest Scenario

Soto and Judge combine for 20 WAR, which is somehow more than all the rest of the Yankees combined.

Actual Prediction

83-79, third in AL East

Toronto Blue Jays

2023 results: 89-73, third in AL East, No. 3 Wild Card, lost in ALWCS
Biggest additions: Justin Turner, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Joey Votto, Daniel Vogelbach
Biggest subtractions: Matt Chapman, Jordan Hicks, Whit Merrifield, Adam Cimber, Hyun Jin Ryu, Brandon Belt

Best-Case Scenario

Whatever gremlins infected the batter’s eye in the Rogers Centre in 2023 scurry off, fixing Vladimir Guerrero’s and Daulton Varsho’s bats. Davis Schneider’s weird 2023 hot streak continues, while Cavan Biggio and Isiah Kiner-Falefa at least don’t embarrass themselves. Kevin Gausman’s Cy Young season is enough to get them to 95-67, an AL East title and a playoff run.

Worst-Case Scenario

Guerrero went from 67% better than average in 2021 (167 OPS+) to 33% better in 2022 to 17% better in 2023. That’s dropping by half each year, and while mathematically that means he can never actually get to average, it’s certainly a distressing trend. It continues, and a starting lineup that carries between two and four dead spots can’t overcome that. The Blue Jays go 76-86, and “future of Vlad” murmurs start.

Funniest Scenario

Joey Votto not only makes the club, he hits like it’s five years ago again, winning Comeback Player of the Year, and he and Justin Turner do an ad for, like, AARP or something together.

Actual Prediction

82-80, fourth in AL East

Boston Red Sox

2023 results: 78-84, fifth in AL East
Biggest additions: Tyler O’Neill, Vaughn Grissom, C.J. Cron, Lucas Giolito, Isaiah Campbell, Greg Weissert, Justin Slaten, Liam Hendriks
Biggest subtractions: Alex Verdugo, Chris Sale, Justin Turner, James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Nick Robertson, Victor Santos, Luis Urías, Adam Duvall, Adalberto Mondesi

Best-Case Scenario

Vaughn Grissom makes it back from his strained groin quickly, giving the Red Sox above-average players in every slot of the lineup. It’s enough to compensate for a ho-hum starting rotation and carry the Red Sox to 87-75 and a Wild Card berth.

Worst-Case Scenario

It turns out Rafael Devers, Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida are the only above-average hitters in Boston, and that’s not nearly enough, considering this starting rotation is all wishes and dreams. The Red Sox slip to 70-92, and Bill Simmons just sends so many tweets.

Funniest Scenario

The patchwork pitching staff actually pitches well! It’s within the range of each of those guys individually, which means it’s theoretically possible they can all do it at the same time … but the offense holds them back, and they end up falling short anyway.

Actual Prediction

78-84, fifth in AL East

AL East Standings

AL Central

Minnesota Twins

2023 results: 87-75, AL Central champion, lost in ALDS
Biggest additions: Carlos Santana, Manuel Margot, Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Topa, Steven Okert, Josh Staumont, Jay Jackson
Biggest subtractions: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Jorge Polanco, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagán, Joey Gallo, Dylan Floro, Michael Taylor, Nick Gordon

Best-Case Scenario

Byron Buxton manages 130 games, mostly in the field, and hits like it’s 2021. Royce Lewis stays healthy too and adds a few more grand slams, just for laughs. Even Alex Kirilloff plays 100-plus games. The pieces staying on the field is enough to offset a shallow pitching staff, and the Twins go 91-71 and get to the ALCS.

Worst-Case Scenario

Nope, Buxton and Lewis really can’t stay healthy, and Carlos Correa misses time with them. Pablo López is excellent, but the pitching staff (relying on Chris Paddack? Really?) is just too shallow to overcome the offensive problems. The Twins slip to 79-83 and miss the postseason.

Funniest Scenario

It’s the grand slams. Lewis hitting five grand slams in 2023 was a cool story, but it’ll fade from the consciousness if it’s a one-off. If he does something like that again? It’s all we’ll talk about.

Actual Prediction

85-77, AL Central champion, lose in ALWCS

Cleveland Guardians

2023 results: 76-86, third in AL Central
Biggest additions: Austin Hedges, Deyvison De Los Santos, Estevan Florial, Scott Barlow, Carlos Carrasco
Biggest subtractions: Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, Zach Plesac, Eric Haase, Jean Segura, Cody Morris, Christian Bethancourt, Cal Quantrill

Best-Case Scenario

Kyle Manzardo comes up and brings his power bat with him, giving the Guardians three 25-home guys (Manzardo, José Ramírez, Josh Naylor) for the first time since 1995 (this probably isn’t true, don’t check me). Shane Bieber rebounds as well, and the Guardians take a middling Central with an 86-76 record.

Worst-Case Scenario

Ramírez’ OBP hasn’t started to dip, but his slugging percentage has dropped 130 points in three years, and at age 31 things really start to decline, and only the Naylors (Bo Naylor and Josh Naylor) top a 100 OPS+. With Bieber’s decline continuing, it becomes clear that Guardians have missed their window, as they finish 74-88.

Funniest Scenario

So this obviously won’t happen, but the Guardians and Marlins should get together for a Home Run Derby, and then at the end it’s revealed that the actual winner is the team that hits the fewest homers. Tell me that wouldn’t be hilarious.

Actual Prediction

82-80, second in AL Central

Detroit Tigers

2023 results: 78-84, second in AL Central
Biggest additions: Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Shelby Miller, Andrew Chafin
Biggest subtractions: Eduardo Rodriguez, Spencer Turnbull, José Cisnero, Austin Meadows, Andre Lipcius

Best-Case Scenario

Tarik Skubal slides into the Cy Young with Gerrit Cole out, and Spencer Torkelson hits enough to get some MVP consideration. Javier Báez remembers how to hit even a little, and the Tigers young players produce enough to get the team to 87-75 and a wild card berth.

Worst-Case Scenario

Skubal’s 2023 breakout proves to be a small-sample mirage, and he can’t hold up to a full season’s worth of innings. Torkelson hits more like the first half of 2023 (.711 OPS) than the second (.816). Báez tests the limit of how low an OBP can go for a full-time player (though let’s be real, he did that last year — .267?!). The young guys aren’t ready, and the Tigers go 68-94 and start to question this version of the rebuild.

Funniest Scenario

Miguel Cabrera is invited to throw the first pitch of the out-of-nowhere Tigers-Marlins World Series, and he comes out … in a Marlins hat.

Actual Prediction

81-81, third in AL Central

Kansas City Royals

2023 results: 56-106, fifth in AL Central
Biggest additions: Hunter Renfroe, Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kyle Wright, Will Smith, John Schreiber, Nick Anderson, Chris Stratton, Matt Sauer
Biggest subtractions: Josh Staumont, Zack Greinke, Brad Keller, Matt Duffy, Jackie Bradley, Joe Barlow, David Sandlin, Samad Taylor

Best-Case Scenario

Cole Ragans is a bona fide Cy Young candidate, while guys like Hunter Renfroe and Michael Wacha do well enough to command some return at the trade deadline. The Royals stay competitive enough to not be embarrassing and prove to have piece for the future as they go 76-86.

Worst-Case Scenario

Ragans is a fine No. 3 starter miscast as the No. 1, but everyone else they have is either worse or much worse. Salvador Perez’ decline starts in earnest. Vinnie Pasquantino is more the guy with a .761 OPS in 2023 than the one with an .833 in 2022. The various veteran retreads the Royals brought in this offseason garner them nothing in trades, and they scuffle once again, finishing 58-104.

Funniest Scenario

The Royals travel to Texas in late June. Ragans gets his World Series rings before the game, then goes out and pitches a shutout, bringing the Royals to 30-48 and the Rangers to 47-28. But hey, that’s a banner day for the Royals.

Actual Prediction

74-88, fourth in AL Central

Chicago White Sox

2023 results: 61-101, fourth in AL Central
Biggest additions: Steven Wilson, Dominic Fletcher, Paul DeJong, Nicky Lopez, Martín Maldonado, Max Stassi, Daniel Mendick Danny Mendick, Kevin Pillar, Erick Fedde, Michael Soroka, Chris Flexen, John Brebbia, Dominic Leone, Tim Hill, Jesse Chavez, Shane Drohan
Biggest subtractions: Dylan Cease, Aaron Bummer, Liam Hendriks, Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Clevinger, Elvis Andrus, Trayce Thompson

Best-Case Scenario

Luis Robert is an MVP candidate, Eloy Jiménez stays healthy (somehow), and bounce-back seasons from Andrew Benintendi and Yoán Moncada give the White Sox a respectable top of the order (we won’t talk about the back half). Meanwhile, Michael Soroka pitches like he did early in his career in Atlanta. Put it all together, and the White Sox go 75-87.

Worst-Case Scenario

Robert is the only average-to-above regular in Chicago, and that goes for the pitchers as well. They fall behind the A’s and Rockies and finish 53-109.

Funniest Scenario

The White Sox are surprise contenders behind breakout performances from Nicky Lopez, Michael Soroka, Kevin Pillar, Braden Shewmake, Touki Toussaint and all their various and sundry other ex-Braves, and we start to wonder just how wide-reaching Atlanta’s magic dust stretches.

Actual Prediction

64-98, fifth in AL West

AL Central Standings

AL West

Houston Astros

2023 results: 90-72, AL West champion, lost in ALCS
Biggest additions: Josh Hader, Victor Caratini
Biggest subtractions: Hector Neris, Phil Maton, Martín Maldonado, Ryne Stanek, Michael Brantley

Best-Case Scenario

Justin Verlander makes it back quickly, giving the Astros an above-average rotation and a Megazord bullpen. The lineup stays healthy, not exposing the miserable bench, and the Astros go 103-59 and roll to a World Series title.

Worst-Case Scenario

Cristian Javier’s ERA climbed more than 2 runs last year, and it stays up there. Verlander misses significant time and looks every bit his age when he gets back. The Astros end up having to play Jon Singleton and Mauricio Dubón significant time and fall to 82-80 and miss the playoffs.

Funniest Scenario

Blake Snell signs in Houston, where he wins the Cy Young by going 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA despite a 13.3% walk rate and failing to get even one out in the seventh in 29 of his 32 starts, and … wait, that’s what he just did in San Diego. Such a weird year. (Tuesday morning update: Never mind!)

Actual Prediction

93-69, AL West champion, lose in ALDS

Seattle Mariners

2023 results: 88-74, third in AL West
Biggest additions: Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, Seby Zavala, Luis Urías, Luke Raley, Gregory Santos, Ryne Stanek, Carlos Vargas, Austin Voth, Jackson Kowar
Biggest subtractions: Robbie Ray, Teoscar Hernández, Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, Evan White, José Caballero, Tom Murphy, Justin Topa

Best-Case Scenario

The best pitching staff in baseball is supported by a sneaky-good offense supported by AL MVP Julio Rodríguez. Jorge Polanco is the round peg, round hole that gets everything sorted out as the Mariners go 97-65 and roll their lights-out rotation to a World Series title.

Worst-Case Scenario

Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo aren’t ready for prime time, and one of Luis Castillo/Logan Gilbert/George Kirby misses significant time. The Mariners’ reliever-producing machine slows down, and the bullpen struggles. The back half of the lineup disappoints, as the Mariners scuffle to a 79-83 record.

Funniest Scenario

The Mariners trade for Will Smith at the deadline for some bullpen help, and when they win the World Series his mythos of being the “World Series champion for hire” only grows.

Actual Prediction

91-71, second in AL West, No. 1 Wild Card, win World Series

Texas Rangers

2023 results: 90-72, second in AL West, No. 2 Wild Card, won the gosh-dang World Series
Biggest additions: Andrew Knizner, Jose Barrero, David Robertson, Kirby Yates, Tyler Mahle
Biggest subtractions: Mitch Garver, Jordan Montgomery, Aroldis Chapman, Martín Pérez, Chris Stratton, Will Smith, Austin Hedges, J.P. Martinez

Best-Case Scenario

The offense carries the team through the first half until Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle all come back healthy in the second half. Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford finish 1-2 (or 2-1!) in Rookie of the Year voting, the Rangers score 1,000 runs and go 94-68, but then the healthy pitching staff carries them through the postseason to a second consecutive World Series title.

Worst-Case Scenario

At least two of those three pitchers don’t make it back at all, so the Rangers have to once again rely on Dane Dunning to carry a significant load. The preseason injuries (Josh Jung, Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager) continue, and the team never gets its ideal lineup on the field at the same time. The Rangers disappoint and slide to an 80-82 record.

Funniest Scenario

Nathan Eovaldi is a so-so pitcher for the year — 4.40 ERA, middling record — but the Rangers nab a wild card and he goes Super Saiyan in the playoffs yet again.

Actual Prediction

88-74, third in AL West, No. 2 Wild Card, lose in ALDS

Los Angeles Angels

2023 results: 73-89, fourth in AL West
Biggest additions: Ehire Adrianza, Aaron Hicks, Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis García, Adam Cimber, José Cisnero
Biggest subtractions: Shohei Ohtani, Randal Grichuk, David Fletcher, Max Stassi, Mike Moustakas, Gio Urshela, Eduardo Escobar, C.J. Cron

Best-Case Scenario

Mike Trout is “healthy superstar Mike Trout” for the first time since 2020. The team is just good enough to be relevant in the season, but not good enough to compete, so they manage to trade a rejuvenated Trout at the deadline and get a whole haul to jump-start a reboot. They finish 77-85.

Worst-Case Scenario

Trout gets hurt yet again, and Anthony Rendon misses significant time as well. The bullpen, which is already dinged up, never comes together. Nolan Schanuel and Zach Neto aren’t ready. The Angels hang out in the Oakland range of the standings for much of the season and ultimately finish 64-98.

Funniest Scenario

Anthony Rendon plays all 162 games. (Most unlikely one of these all day.)

Actual Prediction

73-89, fourth in AL West

Oakland Athletics

2023 results: 50-112, fifth in AL West
Biggest additions: Abraham Toro, Miguel Andujar, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, Trevor Gott, Scott Alexander, Mitch Spence
Biggest subtractions: Trevor May, Tony Kemp, James Kaprielian

Best-Case Scenario

Esteury Ruiz steals 75 bases. Mason Miller establishes himself as a bona fide closer. Brent Rooker plays well enough to command a nice deadline trade return. The A’s are still terrible and go 66-96, but it’s a respectable 66-96.

Worst-Case Scenario

Ruiz can’t hit enough to justify his wheels and they have to bench him. Rooker’s 2023 breakout was a mirage. The starting rotation is even worse than it has been, and guys like Alex Wood and Ross Stripling don’t even garner them anything of note at the trade deadline. The A’s flirt with the 1962 Mets/2003 Tigers futility marks of fewest wins in a 162-game season (40 and 43, respectively) as they finish 44-118.

Funniest Scenario

The A’s-to-Vegas move falls apart completely, and John Fisher has to go back to Oakland with his hat in his hand, and he’s ultimately forced to sell.

Actual Prediction

61-101, fifth in AL West

AL West Standings

American League Award Winners

MVP: Julio Rodríguez

He took a slight detour in the first half of 2023, but this is a star player who will anchor a lineup that wins close to 90 games.

Cy Young: Luis Castillo

The Gerrit Cole injury really throws a wrench into the AL Cy Young race. Castillo is as good as anyone, but he isn’t as flashy, so I worry the back-of-the-baseball-card numbers could cost him. Still, there’s no screaming pick in the AL.

Rookie of the Year: Evan Carter

Wyatt Langford is the buzzy one right now, but we’ve already seen Carter beat up the league in a small sample. Once he starts going, people will remember his playoff run and that will color the votes.

Manager of the Year: Scott Servais

The Mariners will stay in the division race all year and ultimately grab the first wild card. That’s enough.

American League Playoffs

Projected playoff seeds:

1. Baltimore Orioles (AL East winner)
2. Houston Astros (AL West winner)
3. Minnesota Twins (AL Central winner)
4. Seattle Mariners (first AL Wild Card)
5. Texas Rangers (second AL Wild Card)
6. Tampa Ba Rays (third AL Wild Card)

American League Wild Card Series

Mariners over Twins (3 games)

The best pitching staff in baseball, or the worst playoff team, only in because it’s in a terrible division? Hmmm.

Rangers over Rays (2)

If the Rangers make the playoffs, it’ll be because the deGrom/Scherzer group comes back strong. And if they come back strong, they’ll help them to a playoff series win.

American League Division Series

Mariners over Astros (5)

As I write this, Blake Snell isn’t an Astro. This is close enough that that would be enough to sway me. But right now, the Mariners pitching is strong enough to slow down the Astros.

(Update: Well, Snell is a Giant, so I’m sticking with this pick.)

Orioles over Rangers (5)

Sad! But the Orioles are on the rise, and the Rangers aren’t going to shut them down in consecutive years.

American League Championship Series

Mariners over Orioles (6)

If the Orioles start putting down some money on their young guys, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re my 2025 World Series pick. This isn’t a knock at all.

World Series

Mariners over Dodgers (6)

MVP: J.P. Crawford 

It’s the Teoscar Hernández Classic! This one could go either way, and I’m not shy about saying I pick the Mariners just because it’s the more interesting choice.