Lucas Giolito DVOA, Advanced Stats, & Fantasy Rankings

Boston Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito (elbow) is a few days behind the rest of the team's starting pitchers in camp, although he's already thrown several bullpen sessions in spring training. The Athletic's Jen McCaffrey reports that Giolito is scheduled to throw live batting practice in the coming days. The 30-year-old veteran is recovering from an internal-brace procedure on his right elbow that caused him to miss the entire 2024 campaign. Barring a setback as he continues to ramp up in spring training, Giolito is expected to be part of Boston's Opening Day starting rotation. Giolito was an All-Star with the Chicago White Sox in 2019 and garnered votes for American League Cy Young in 2020 and 2021 as well, but he fell apart and was traded twice in 2023 before getting hurt last spring. With a likely innings limit in his first season with Boston, Giolito is outside of RotoBaller's top-100 starting pitching rankings.

Boston Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito (elbow) had an internal-brace procedure on his right elbow last March and missed all of the 2024 season. However, he spent all of 2024 rehabbing in Boston and began throwing by September. He has already thrown four bullpen sessions this winter and is ready to be "full-go" by the start of spring training next month, according to The Athletic's Jen McCaffrey. Giolito said he started tweaking some pitch usages and grips prior to his injury last year, and he's looking forward to implementing those changes in 2025. "We shifted the grip on my slider to get the shape and the profile in the right area and add more velocity," Giolito said. "We were working on the changeup and getting that back to the place it needs to be." The 30-year-old was a front-line starter from 2019-21 but he hit a wall in 2023. At best, he's a late-round flier for those hoping for a bounce-back.

Boston Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said on Monday that right-handers Garrett Whitlock (elbow) and Lucas Giolito (elbow) are both currently rehabbing but are expected to pitch most, if not all, of the 2025 season. Giolito had an internal-brace surgery on his arm several months before Whitlock did, so of the two, he has the best shot at being healthy for Opening Day and contributing for fantasy managers. If Whitlock's rehab is dragging, the Red Sox could choose to use him in relief instead, although that would significantly damper his fantasy outlook. Whitlock has had success as both a starter and reliever, and he had an ERA under 2.00 in four starts in 2024 before the injuries set in. Giolito has been throwing for months at this point, and the 30-year-old could force Boston's hand with a six-man starting rotation early in the year if he's fully healthy and ready to go.