Shane Bieber DVOA, Advanced Stats, & Fantasy Rankings

Cleveland Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber (elbow) will make his first minor-league rehab start on Saturday in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League, according to Guardians Prospective. Bieber is progressing from Tommy John surgery in April of last year and is finally ready to resume pitching in games. It's a big step for the two-time All-Star and former American League Cy Young winner, but he still has a ways to go and isn't expected to make his 2025 debut until after the All-Star break in mid-July. Like all pitchers returning from TJ surgery, Bieber will be a wild card for both the Guardians and fantasy managers when he returns later this season. The former fantasy ace was trending in the wrong direction with both his strikeout and walk rates before his elbow injury, which will make him even more unpredictable when he rejoins Cleveland's starting rotation.

Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber (elbow) threw live batting practice on Friday. According to manager Stephen Vogt, the session went "well," but he still has a "ways to go." Bieber is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Bieber underwent the surgery after logging just 12 innings during the start of the 2024 season. During those 12 innings, Bieber looked sharp as he struck out 20 batters, did not allow a run, and held a 0.92 WHIP. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor his progression, but the 29-year-old will likely not be in the mix to return to the majors until the second half of the campaign. However, seeing that he is already throwing live batting practice, the right-hander could be in line to make his first rehab appearance in June. When he does return, he should hold solid value in standard formats, as he posted a 3.80 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP across 128 innings in 2023.

Cleveland Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber (elbow) is scheduled to start throwing in extended spring training games at the team's spring training complex in Arizona in May. The Arizona Complex League Opening Day is this Saturday, May 3. Bieber still has a ways to go while recovering from Tommy John surgery that he had in mid-April of last year, though, so fantasy managers stashing him need to remain patient. The 29-year-old veteran will eventually need to go on a lengthy minor-league rehab assignment and will not be ready to make his 2025 season debut until around the All-Star break in mid-July. Bieber has been excellent for fantasy managers in the past, but you shouldn't be expecting greatness in the second half this year for a pitcher whose velocity and strikeouts have been heading in the wrong direction.