NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/3)
Alex Christenson
NFL snap counts are a critical part of assessing a player’s weekly potential. As we enter Week 14 of the NFL season, here is a look at FTN Fantasy’s NFL snap counts for the key fantasy football players from each Week 13 matchup.
Fantasy Football Snap Counts: Week 13
Lions 23, Bears 20
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) 46%; David Montgomery (DET) 54%; D’Andre Swift (CHI) 69%; Travis Homer (CHI) 28%
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 94%; Tim Patrick (DET) 70%; Jameson Williams (DET) 79%; DJ Moore (CHI) 97%; Keenan Allen (CHI) 96%; Rome Odunze (CHI) 78%
TE: Sam LaPorta (DET) 94%; Brock Wright (DET) 43%; Cole Kmet 99%; Marcedes Lewis (CHI) 22%
Snap counts were affected by Jahmyr Gibbs’ fumble and Roschon Johnson’s concussion. Sam LaPorta and Cole Kmet maintain two of the highest tight ends snap counts in the league.
Cowboys 27, Giants 20
RB: Rico Dowdle (DAL) 70%; Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 12%; Devin Singletary (NYG) 21%; Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) 73%
WR: CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 67%; Jalen Tolbert (DAL) 72%; Jalen Brooks (DAL) 30%; Jonathan Mingo (DAL) 34%; Brandin Cooks (DAL) 39%; Malik Nabers (NYG) 95%; Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) 76%; Darius Slayton (NYG) 68%
TE: Luke Schoonmaker (DAL) 66%; Brevyn Spann-Ford (DAL) 42%; Theo Johnson (NYG) 89%; Chris Manhertz (NYG) 33%
The lingering injury to CeeDee Lamb opened the door for an increase to the snap counts for Jalen Tolbert and Jonathan Mingo. The return of Brandin Cooks was a welcome sight for a Dallas team starved for playmakers. The snaps are there for the Giants receivers, but will the production ever follow? Theo Johnson is now on season-ending IR, opening the door for Manhertz and Daniel Bellinger.
Packers 30, Dolphins 17
RB: Josh Jacobs (GB) 78%; Chris Brooks (GB) 28%; De’Von Achane (MIA) 69%; Raheem Mostert (MIA) 35%; Jaylen Wright (MIA) 1%
WR: Christian Watson (GB) 94%; Jayden Reed (GB) 67%; Dontayvion Wicks (GB) 89%; Bo Melton (GB) 17%; Tyreek Hill (MIA) 80%; Jaylen Waddle (MIA) 92%; Malik Washington (MIA) 38%
TE: Tucker Kraft (GB) 91%; Jonnu Smith (MIA) 72%; Julian Hill (MIA) 34%
Josh Jacobs dominated in the cold weather, but will he be ready on a short week against the Lions? Raheem Mostert’s snap advantage over Jaylen Wright is worth noting, as is the 94% mark for Green Bay wideout Christian Watson. If Romeo Doubs is out again, expect another strong dose of Dontayvion Wicks The production for Jaylen Waddle will come during the fantasy playoffs.
Chiefs 19, Raiders 17
RB: Isiah Pacheco (KC) 37%; Kareem Hunt (KC) 38%; Samaje Perine (KC) 25%; Ameer Abdullah (LV) 62%; Sincere McCormick (LV) 38%
WR: DeAndre Hopkins (KC) 59%; Justin Watson (KC) 45%; JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) 56%; Xavier Worthy (KC) 59%; Jakobi Meyers (LV) 93%; Tre Tucker (LV) 97%; DJ Turner (LV) 22%
TE: Travis Kelce (KC) 90%; Noah Gray (KC) 62%; Brock Bowers (LV) 90%
Noah Gray is a legitimate fantasy option, with eight straight weeks of a 60% or higher snap share. I expect Pacheco’s snap percentage to rise each week, with Hunt’s decreasing. Brock Bowers is the premier tight end fantasy option.
Chargers 17, Falcons 13
RB: Gus Edwards (LAC) 52%; Hassan Haskins (LAC) 15%; Kimani Vidal (LAC) 26%; Bijan Robinson (ATL) 75%; Tyler Allgeier (ATL) 30%
WR: Quentin Johnston (LAC) 67%; Joshua Palmer (LAC) 63%; Ladd McConkey (LAC) 63%; Ray-Ray McCloud (ATL) 95%; Drake London (ATL) 99%; Darnell Mooney (ATL) 94%
TE: Will Dissly (LAC) 63%; Tucker Fisk (LAC) 43%; Charlie Woerner (ATL) 58%; Kyle Pitts (ATL) 41%
The absence of J.K. Dobbins led to a three-way timeshare, led by Gus Edwards. Los Angeles desperately needs Ladd McConkey healthy for Sunday’s massive battle with Kansas City. Kyle Pitts seeing 14 fewer snaps than Charlie Woerner is … interesting as always.
Steelers 44, Bengals 28
RB: Najee Harris (PIT) 52%; Jaylen Warren (PIT) 36%; Cordarrelle Patterson (PIT) 14%; Chase Brown (CIN) 81%; Khalil Herbert (CIN) 10%
WR: George Pickens (PIT) 91%; Van Jefferson (PIT) 62%; Mike Williams (PIT) 25%; Ben Skowronek (PIT) 33%; Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 97%; Tee Higgins (CIN) 90%; Andrei Iosivas (CIN) 68%
TE: Pat Freiermuth (PIT) 67%; Darnell Washington (PIT) 49%; Drew Sample (CIN) 63%; Mike Gesicki (CIN) 44%
Jaylen Warren mysteriously sat on the bench until the middle of the second quarter, giving way to Cordarrelle Patterson. I doubt that will continue in subsequent weeks. Khalil Herbert saw a moderate increase in touches, which is noteworthy. Darnell Washington remains on radar as a weekly lottery ticket who has explosive ability for Pittsburgh.
Vikings 23, Cardinals 22
RB: Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN) 53%; Cam Akers (MIN) 30%; James Conner (AZ) 59%; Emari Demercado (AZ) 27%
WR: Justin Jefferson (MIN) 96%; Jordan Addison (MIN) 94%; Jalen Nailor (MIN) 58%; Michael Wilson (AZ) 82%; Marvin Harrison Jr. (AZ) 88%; Zay Jones (AZ) 39%
TE: T.J. Hockenson (MIN) 64%; Johnny Mundt (MIN) 42%; Trey McBride (AZ) 94%
Cam Akers continues to cut into Aaron Jones Sr.’ workload, hitting 30% or more for the third time in the past four games. I’m on an island, but Zay Jones is set up for a big performance during the fantasy playoffs. Johnny Mundt caught a touchdown and now Josh Oliver is set to return in Week 14 making the tight end position a complete mess for Minnesota.
Colts 25, Patriots 24
RB: Jonathan Taylor (IND) 89%; Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) 78%; Antonio Gibson (NE) 24%
WR: Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) 92%; Alec Pierce (IND) 71%; Adonai Mitchell (IND) 58%; Kayshon Boutte (NE) 99%; Kendrick Bourne (NE) 64%; DeMario Douglas (NE) 62%
TE: Mo Alie-Cox (IND) 58%; Kylen Granson (IND) 52%; Drew Ogletree (IND) 52%; Hunter Henry (NE) 78%; Austin Hooper (NE) 50%
Antonio Gibson posted 62 rushing yards and a touchdown, but his snap share did not increase from prior weeks. Adonai Mitchell saw his highest snap share since Week 10 due to the absence of Josh Downs Kayshon Boutte is always on the field, but quarterback Drake Maye continues to utilize his two tight ends in the passing game.
Seahawks 26, Jets 21
RB: Kenneth Walker III (SEA) 61%; Zach Charbonnet (SEA) 45%; Breece Hall (NYJ) 62%; Braelon Allen (NYJ) 28%; Isaiah Davis (NYJ) 18%
WR: DK Metcalf (SEA) 75%; Tyler Lockett (SEA) 47%; Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) 77%; Jake Bobo (SEA) 30%; Davante Adams (NUJ) 97%; Garrett Wilson (NYJ) 97%; Malachi Corley (NYJ) 60%; Xavier Gipson (NYJ) 28%
TE: Noah Fant (SEA) 67%; AJ Barner (SEA) 41%; Pharaoh Brown (SEA) 41%; Tyler Conklin (NYJ) 82%; Jeremy Ruckert (NYJ) 25%
Breece Hall was definitely limited because of a lingering knee issue, which led to both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis seeing an increase in snaps. Tyler Lockett’s snap share has decreased in four straight weeks. Tyler Conkin does little with his huge weekly opportunities.
Commanders 42, Titans 19
RB: Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) 47%; Jeremy McNichols (WAS) 25%; Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WAS) 28%; Tony Pollard (TEN) 73%; Tyjae Spears (TEN) 25%
WR: Terry McLaurin (WAS) 80%; Noah Brown (WAS) 46%; Dyami Brown (WAS) 52%; Olamide Zaccheaus (WAS) 35%; Luke McCaffrey (WAS) 29%; Calvin Ridley (TEN) 100%; Tyler Boyd (TEN) 85%; Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) 100%
TE: Zach Ertz (WAS) 66%; John Bates (WAS) 64%; Ben Sinnott (WAS) 29%; Chig Okonkwo (TEN) 65%;
The blowout skewed all snap shares, so it’s difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions. Jeremy McNichols is still ahead of Chris Rodriguez Jr., with Rodriguez gaining most of his snaps when the outcome was decided. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine‘s insane touchdown-to-reception ratio will slow down, but his eight targets give hope for more receiving volume.
Texas 23, Jaguars 20
RB: Joe Mixon (HOU) 75%; Dare Ogunbowale (HOU) 14%; Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX) 53%; Tank Bigsby (JAX) 46%
WR: Nico Collins (HOU) 70%; Tank Dell (HOU) 68%; John Metchie III (HOU) 49%; Robert Woods (HOU) 33%; Parker Washington (JAX) 80%; Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) 87%; Devin Duvernay (JAX) 57%
TE: Dalton Schultz (HOU) 68%; Irv Smith Jr. (HOU) 27%; Evan Engram (JAX) 71%; Brenton Strange (JAX) 41%
Tank Bigsby returned to make the Jaguars backfield a 50-50 split yet again. Parker Washington is a nice waiver addition for the fantasy playoffs. Evan Engram should see a huge opportunity moving forward, even with Mac Jones under center for Jacksonville.
Rams 21, Saints 14
RB: Kyren Williams (LAR) 68%; Blake Corum (LAR) 32%; Alvin Kamara (NO) 86%
WR: Cooper Kupp (LAR) 91%; Puka Nacua (LAR) 79%; Demarcus Robinson (LAR) 61%; Marquez Valdes-Scantling (NO) 76%; Kevin Austin Jr. (NO) 61%; Cedrick Wilson Jr. (NO) 33%
TE: Davis Allen (LAR) 32%; Colby Parkinson (LAR) 36%; Hunter Long (LAR) 34%; Juwan Johnson (NO) 70%; Foster Moreau (NO) 66%
The injury to Taysom Hill opens more snaps for Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau. While the New Orleans coaching staff doesn’t love Kendre Miller, the Saints need somebody besides Alvin Kamara to handle backfield touches.
Buccaneers 26, Panthers 23
RB: Rachaad White (TB) 52%; Bucky Irving (TB) 54%; Chuba Hubbard (CAR) 79%; Jonathon Brooks (CAR) 21%
WR: Mike Evans (TB) 84%; Sterling Shepard (TB) 44%; Jalen McMillan (TB) 76%; Trey Palmer (TB) 19%; David Moore (CAR) 90%; Adam Thielen (CAR) 73%; Xavier Legette (CAR) 96%
TE: Cade Otton (TB) 94%; Payne Durham (TB) 39%; Tommy Tremble (CAR) 100%
That’s a massive snap share for Carolina tight end Tommy Tremble. I expect Jonathon Brooks’ opportunities to grow quickly, and Adam Thielen is in a great position to help best ball teams in the fantasy playoffs.
Eagles 24, Ravens 19
RB: Saquon Barkley (PHI) 88%; Kenneth Gainwell (PHI) 12%; Derrick Henry (BAL) 51%; Justice Hill (BAL) 50%
WR: A.J. Brown (PHI) 96%; Jahan Dotson (PHI) 64%; Parris Campbell (PHI) 50%; Zay Flowers (BAL) 94%; Tyson Wallace (BAL) 56%; Nelson Agholor (BAL) 56%; Rashod Bateman (BAL) 40%
TE: Dallas Goedert (PHI) 71%; Grant Calcaterra (PHI) 48%; Mark Andrews (BAL) 74%; Isaiah Likely (BAL) 50%
When Baltimore is trailing, Derrick Henry’s snaps will suffer. Rashod Bateman’s injury isn’t a “long-term thing” per head coach John Harbaugh, but Dallas Goedert’s knee injury could force placement on IR.
Bills 35, 49ers 10
RB: James Cook (BUF) 45%; Ty Johnson (BUF) 28%; Ray Davis (BUF) 33%; Isaac Guerendo (SF) 23%; Kyle Juszczyk (SF) 44%
WR: Mack Hollins (BUF) 66%; Khalil Shakir (BUF) 50%; Amari Cooper (BUF) 47%; Curtis Samuel (BUF) 38%; Deebo Samuel Sr. (SF) 75%; Jauan Jennings (SF) 96%; Ricky Pearsall (SF) 73%
TE: Quintin Morris (BUF) 41%; Dawson Knox (BUF) 48%; George Kittle (SF) 100%
The biggest change is in the San Francisco backfield, where Isaac Guerendo gets a huge opportunity during the fantasy playoffs. Buffalo’s dominance limits conclusions for the listed snap shares, but I still maintain Mack Hollins should see an overwhelming majority of snaps each week.
Broncos 41, Browns 32
RB: Jerome Ford (CLE) 66%; Nick Chubb (CLE) 34%; Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) 36%; Javonte Williams (DEN) 45%; Mike Burton (DEN) 20%; Audric Estime (DEN) 12%
WR: Jerry Jeudy (CLE) 91%; Elijah Moore (CLE) 74%; Michael Woods II (CLE) 77%; Courtland Sutton (DEN) 94%; Devaughn Vele (DEN) 47%; Troy Franklin (DEN) 41%; Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) 35%
TE: David Njoku (CLE) 92%; Jordan Akins (CLE) 23%; Adam Trautman (DEN) 56%; Nate Adkins (DEN) 39%
Jameis Winston lit up the skies in Denver, leading to season-best performances from Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore. After Courtland Sutton, the Broncos’ target share is a muddled mess. Don’t be misled by Jaleel McLaughlin’s big game. Javonte Williams still posted the highest snap share of all Broncos running backs.
