Week 5 Fantasy Football Game By Game Breakdown

Week 5 of the fantasy football is already upon us, and injuries continue to take a toll.

We are also one week before the start of the byes, which means fantasy players are going to have to start looking toward their bench in the coming weeks. Let’s not look too far ahead, however, as we have a massive Week 5 slate that, for the second consecutive week, features a London game.

Let’s break it all down.

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos

Total: 44, DEN -3
Pace: DEN: 28.63 sec/snap (24th), IND: 27.98 sec/snap (17th)

What to watch for: RB injuries. Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams will both miss this game, with Williams out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL.

Broncos

Quarterback

Russell Wilson is coming off his best game of the young season, throwing for 237 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Raiders and adding 29 yards and an additional score on the ground. We saw an uptick in downfield passing from Wilson in Week 4, as he attempted four passes 20 yards or more down the field, which is notable considering he attempted just eight such passes in the first three weeks. Wilson has also added 10 rushing attempts over the last two games. He now faces a Colts defense that has been a pass funnel for a while now, as 70% of the touchdowns scored against Indianapolis this season have been through the air, and 69.8% of the yardage against this defense has come via the pass—both are the 10^th-highest rates in the league. The Colts are also allowing the league’s eighth-highest passing touchdown rate at 5.6% and have been below average at defending the play-action pass. We just saw Ryan Tannehill complete 7-of-9 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown off play-action against the Colts, and Trevor Lawrence went 7-for-8 for 90 yards and a touchdown off the play type in Week 2. I’m still fine with starting Wilson as a back-end QB1 Thursday.

Running Back

The Broncos suffered a massive loss in Week 3, as emerging star running back Javonte Williams tore his ACL, ending his season. Williams was on his way to becoming a star and was potentially finally taking over this Denver backfield. He played over 90% of the first half snaps against the Raiders Sunday before the injury. In his absence, Melvin Gordon did not see the work many might have expected. He was limited in practice with a neck injury, lost a fumble in the first half and was seen in the medical tent at one point. After Williams left the game, Mike Boone actually saw 65% of the snaps, playing all but one of the passing-down situations. Of course, Denver was chasing points, so that may have played a factor. Gordon did see the short-yardage snaps, but it is entirely possible that Gordon gets the early-down and goal-line work while Boone sees some carries and plays most of the passing downs. Gordon hasn’t been as good as last year, already losing four fumbles, but he likely starts at running back for the Broncos for the foreseeable future. That pushes him into the low-end RB2 range in a matchup against the Colts, who will once again be without Shaquille Leonard after a concussion last week. Boone is worth an add off waivers in most leagues, especially since we know Nathaniel Hackett wants to use multiple running backs.

Wide Receiver

It was a good day for both Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy last Sunday. Sutton caught 5-of-7 targets for 52 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders, his first of the season. He has led Denver in targets in each of the last three games, handling over 33% of the team’s targets from inside the 10-yard line so far this season. Sutton has had at least 50 yards and seven targets in every game this season, and it is awesome to see him continue to produce with Jeudy in the lineup, as his splits with Jeudy active last year were not great at all — he averaged just 3.8 targets and 19.1 receiving yards in 10 games alongside Jeudy last season. Sutton gets a great Week 5 matchup against Brandon Facyson and the Colts, who are allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 80% of red zone trips so far this season, the second-worst rate in all of football. That bodes well for Sutton, who ranks 11th in the league and seventh among all wide receivers in red zone targets.

Jeudy was fully healthy last week, in his second game since his rib injury, playing 89% of the snaps and running a route on 97% of dropbacks in Week 4. He caught four passes for 53 yards and a touchdown and should continue to see 6-8 targets each week. 

Tight End

Albert Okwuegbunam played one offensive snap Sunday, with Eric Tomlinson and Eric Saubert playing 24 and 41 snaps, respectively. With rookie tight end Greg Dulcich expected to return to action very shortly, Okwuegbunam can absolutely be dropped in fantasy leagues and should not be started in most formats.

Colts

Quarterback

Matt Ryan did not look great Sunday, but the final stat line was solid, as he threw for 356 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. The volume could be solid if the Colts struggle/abandon running the football with Jonathan Taylor out, but the matchup is so, so brutal. Denver’s defense has been outstanding this season, coughing up the fourth-fewest points (1.41), sixth-fewest plays (5.5) and fourth-fewest yards (26.0) per drive so far this season. Opposing offenses are scoring points 31.8% of the time against the Broncos, the eighth-lowest rate in football. The Broncos have been aggressive on defense, blitzing 30.6% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Ryan has been underwhelming against the blitz this year, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt with one touchdown and one interception. I am not starting Ryan this week.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out with an ankle injury, paving the way for Nyheim Hines to see a relatively large role in the Colts offense. Hines has not been an every-down running back during his NFL career, but once Taylor left Sunday’s game with his ankle injury, Hines played every single snap for the Colts, though the team was chasing points. Still, Hines is a player the Colts would likely be comfortable giving 12-15 carries and a ton of passing work to.

Very quietly, Taylor ranks second among all running backs in routes run (110), and he’s been playing more on third down this season. During a preseason game where the starters played but Taylor sat, Hines played every single snap with the first team. Taylor missed one game in 2020 on the Reserve/COVID-19 List, and Hines had 10 carries and 10 targets in that game, which the Colts lost by 19. The Colts also have Deon Jackson, and the team could call up Phillip Lindsay from the practice squad and give him some work, but Hines should see enough touches to warrant RB2 consideration in PPR leagues, making him at worst a high-end flex play.

Wide Receiver

Look, I am not sitting Michael Pittman unless I am so unbelievably loaded at wide receiver — but I’m definitely nervous.

Not everyone puts much stock into cornerback matchups, but when the player is as good as Pat Surtain, yeah, I take notice. Through four weeks, Surtain is allowing just a 57.7% catch rate and a 67.1 passer rating in coverage, and he’s coming off a game where he followed arguably the league’s best wide receiver in Davante Adams. In that game, Surtain followed Adams on 71% of his route last week, limiting the All-Pro to just four receptions for 46 yards on eight targets. And according to NFL Next Gen Stats, five of those eight targets were in tight windows. Surtain is already one of the game’s best and through four weeks, is allowing just a 58% catch rate. Pittman’s volume is going to remain strong — his quiet Week 4 outing could have been much better, but he couldn’t get both feet into the end zone on back-to-back plays. I had been ranking Pittman as a back-end WR1 all season, but this week, he’ll be closer to WR20.

Tight End

The Colts really want me to start writing up how you should start their tight ends in fantasy, but I’m not falling for it. After Jelani Woods scored two touchdowns in Week 3, Mo Alie-Cox took his turn Sunday, hauling in all six of his targets for 86 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Despite the recent production from the Colts tight ends, I still can’t get on board. The Colts have used three tight ends all season long and Alie-Cox still ranks just 21st among all tight ends in routes run. 

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (London)

Total: 41.5, GB -8
Pace: GB: 31.64 sec/snap (32nd), NYG: 27.69 sec/snap (14th)

What to watch for: Daniel Jones (ankle) and Tyrod Taylor (concussion) left Sunday’s game. We also have to see who is playing WR for the Giants this week. Could Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson return?

Packers

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers is coming off a middling fantasy performance in Week 4, but it should have been a much better day. He threw an absolute dime to Romeo Doubs in the end zone, but the rookie couldn’t complete the catch. Rodgers ultimately finished the day with 251 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against the Patriots. Green Bay continues to let Rodgers make a ton of decisions out of RPO, as his 129 passing yards off the play type are the fifth-most in the league. As a result, Rodgers is averaging 2.32 seconds to throw, the third-fastest mark in all of football so far this season. With Green Bay’s pass-catchers starting to get into a rhythm and make plays, Rodgers could sneak back into the QB1 range for fantasy, though his upside is still a bit limited due to the Packers league-worst pace and 11th-highest neutral-script rush rate (46.7%). He’ll gave a solid Giants defense that unsurprisingly blitzes at a high rate with Don Martindale as the defensive coordinator. The Giants are blitzing 32.8% of the time so far this season, the third-highest rate in the league. Rodgers, meanwhile, is completing 77.4% of his passes (fifth), while averaging 8.7 yards per attempt (sixth) against the blitz this year,

Running Back

Green Bay continues to heavily utilize both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Sunday, Dillon played three more snaps and outcarried Jones 17-16. However, six of those carries came on the team’s final drive of overtime, as Green Bay was getting into field goal range for Mason Crosby to win the game. Jones remains the more efficient back, as he ranks second in the league in rushes of 10 or more yards (12). Against the Patriots Sunday, Jones actually ran 17 routes to Dillon’s 20, but I’d still view him as the 1A in this backfield. Jones is a top-12 running back against a Giants defense that is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing backfields (119.0), while coughing up 5.1 yards per rush attempt, tied for the third-highest mark in football.

Dillon has not found the end zone since Week 1, but the opportunities remain there. Through four weeks, Dillon is averaging a healthy 16.5 touches and 16.2 routes run per game. Dillon has been Green Bay’s goal-line running back, as he’s seen 100% of the team’s carries from inside the 5-yard line so far this season. With Green Bay as favorites once again, Dillon should be able to see 15 carries and some receptions. The Giants are a favorable matchup, especially when you consider we saw them play a Cowboys team that uses multiple running backs in Week 3. In that game, Tony Pollard rushed for 100 yards, while Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 72 and a touchdown. 

Aaron Jones

AJ Dillon

Wide Receiver

For the second consecutive week, Romeo Doubs made plenty of plays for Green Bay. Even with Christian Watson back in the lineup, Doubs still logged 95% of the snaps, while running a route on over 94% of dropbacks. He was targeted eight times, hauling in five passes for 47 yards and a touchdown. It could have been a huge day for Doubs if he maintained possession of a touchdown catch of 40-plus yards, but the fact remains that Doubs is sporting a 24% target share over the last two weeks, which puts him on the WR3 radar, especially when those targets are coming from Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay has been manufacturing touches for the rookie wideout, as his eight targets and seven receptions off screens so far this season rank second and third in all of football. 

Allen Lazard has also been very productive since returning to the lineup in Week 2. He’s found the end zone twice during that span, while coming off a 100-yard game against the Patriots. Lazard is playing just about every snap for Green Bay and while a matchup against Adoree’ Jackson is not an easy one, the touchdown upside is extremely high for Lazard. Like Doubs, he pencils in as a viable WR3.

Tight End

While he still isn’t a full-time player, Robert Tonyan found the end zone in Week 4, though he was only targeted twice. His 44% snap share was his second-highest mark of the season, but it feels like it is unlikely he becomes a full-time player this season, especially given how much Green Bay values veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis when it comes to run-blocking. In a matchup against a Giants team that is allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (6.35), you can probably find better options at tight end this week.

Giants

Quarterback

We will have to keep an eye on the starting quarterback situation for the Giants this week. Sunday, Daniel Jones suffered an ankle injury and had to exit the game. Tyrod Taylor came in and then suffered a concussion, ending his day. The Giants had to run some wildcat with Saquon Barkley toward the end of the game. If Jones is active, he’s a viable superflex quarterback, especially for teams that need a replacement for Tua Tagovailoa or (possibly) Dak Prescott. Jones has rushed for 79 and 68 yards over the last two games, scoring two rushing touchdowns last week. 42% of Jones’ rushing attempts have been designed this season, as Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka are implementing quarterback runs into the offense. If Jones and Taylor both are unable to play this week, it will likely be Davis Webb against Aaron Rodgers in London.

Running Back

Saquon Barkley is really good at football and gets the ball a lot. Hashtag analysis.

Barkley is clearly the focal point of this Giants offense, as he’s averaging a gaudy 24.7 touches per game through four weeks, while his 84 rushing attempts lead the NFL. He has handled over 88% of the Giants running back touches, while his 106 routes run rank fourth among all running backs. Barkley will once again be New York’s entire offense in London against a Green Bay defense you can run on. According to Football Outsiders, just 14% of the runs against the Packers this season have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, the fifth-lowest rate in the league. They are also allowing the second-most second level yards (1.62) so don’t be surprised if Barkley, who leads the NFL in runs of 15-plus yards (8), gets to the second level again this weekend.

Wide Receiver

We’ll see if Kadarius Toney and/or Wan’Dale Robinson can return to action this week, but even if they do, it’ll be difficult to consider starting either receiver. The playing time is very uncertain, especially with Toney, while the quarterback situation in New York is suddenly shaky. Both players absolutely need to be added, especially given the fact that Sterling Shepard is out for the season and Kenny Golladay is dealing with an injury. 

Tight End

Daniel Bellinger is someone to keep an eye on as the season progresses, though I would not rely on him this week. He played 60% of the snaps last weekend, however, he only ran a route on 40% of dropbacks. Through four weeks, Green Bay is coughing up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (4.47).

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

Total: 47, BUF -14.5
Pace: BUF: 27.87 sec/snap (15th), PIT: 27.16 sec/snap (12th)

What to watch for: Kenny Pickett will make his first career start this weekend. For Buffalo, Jamison Crowder will miss time with an ankle injury, while Isaiah McKenzie is in the concussion protocol.

Bills

Quarterback

It got off to a rough start Sunday, but at the end of the day, Josh Allen is inevitable. He only threw for 213 yards and one touchdown but added 70 yards and a score on the ground, giving him over 24 fantasy points. Allen has scored at least 24 fantasy points in 13 of his last 19 games, as Buffalo continues to rely on the passing game. The Bills are sporting the league’s highest pass rate in neutral gamescripts this season (68.1%), while Allen is averaging a gaudy 42 pass attempts per game. You are obviously starting Allen every week, especially against a Steelers defense that is reeling right now. Already without T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh is now dealing with multiple injuries on defense, as Cameron Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Terrell Edmunds all suffered injuries against the Jets Sunday, and starting defensive back Ahkello Witherspoon didn’t play with a hamstring injury. The Steelers have dropped to a 20.8% pressure rate this season, the eighth-lowest rate in the league. Watt’s absence cannot be overstated, as the Steelers defense is allowing 25 points per game over their last six games with Watt sidelined, while averaging just 1.5 sacks per game. With Watt, the Steelers are allowing around 20 points per game, recording nearly four sacks per contest. Allen should once again score 25-30 fantasy points in this contest.

Running Back

If Devin Singletary is emerging as a pass-catching running back, he’ll become an RB2 in fantasy before we know it. After an outlier nine-catch game in Week 3, Singletary still saw five targets Sunday against the Ravens, catching four passes for 47 yards. He touched the ball 15 times and despite losing an early fumble, the Bills went right back to him, as Singletary played a whopping 88% of the snaps. Through four weeks, Singletary actually leads all running backs with 118 routes run, a rather shocking development. Averaging 16.5 touches per game over the last two weeks, Singletary is gaining momentum as an RB2 ahead of a matchup with a Steelers team that is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season (22.03).

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs has had consecutive floor games, but he is set to go off in Week 4 against this inept Pittsburgh secondary. The Steelers pass defense has been brutal this season, as wide receivers have done whatever they want against them. Through four weeks, the Steelers have allowed at least 95 receiving yards or a touchdown to six different wide receivers, while three different wideouts have eclipsed the 100-yard mark against them. And even if Witherspoon is back for the Steelers, it does not matter, as he’s struggled this season. In three games, he has allowed 14 catches on 19 targets for 185 yards and a pair of touchdowns in coverage, as well as a 117.2 passer rating. If Witherspoon is out, Diggs will draw coverage from Cameron Sutton, who is more of a slot defensive back, and has also allowed two touchdowns in coverage so far this season. With the Steelers allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, I’m expecting 100 yards and a touchdown from Diggs in Week 4. 

It has been a frustrating last two weeks for Gabe Davis, who has caught just 4-of-9 targets for 50 yards during that span. He had a touchdown drop in Week 3 and then was hardly involved in Week 4. Davis has run a route on an insane 97% of Allen’s dropbacks so far this season but is only being targeted on 9% of his routes, an extremely low number. This was the concern for anyone who faded Davis this offseason, but I still have hope. When you are playing almost every snap and running every route in a Buffalo offense led by Josh Allen, you are going to walk into production. Davis has a great chance of breaking out of his slump this week against a Steelers defense that is coughing up 1.3 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers, the eighth most in football. Davis remains a high-upside WR3.

Finally, we need to keep an eye on the status of Isaiah McKenzie. He’s found the end zone in two straight games and three of four to open the year, but he is currently dealing with a concussion. With Jamison Crowder (ankle) out for the foreseeable future, McKenzie will have the slot role all to himself going forward, as long as he can play. If he’s unable to get cleared in time, rookie Khalil Shakir, who played 25% of the snaps Sunday and converted two targets for 23 yards, would be in line for a huge bump in playing time. And in a favorable matchup, Shakir would become an elite DFS value play, as well as someone you could consider in deeper leagues. If McKenzie is out, Buffalo can use Shakir in similar ways, whether it be out of the slot, in the backfield, off jet sweeps, touch passes, etc.

WRs vs. the Steelers in 2022

Tight End

Dawson Knox has yet to find the end zone, as he continues to pass block a lot. He did run 29 pass routes on Sunday, running a route on nearly 70% of Buffalo’s dropbacks, which is progress. Knox still remains very touchdown dependent and through four weeks, he has seen just one target from inside the 10-yard line. The Steelers are a middle-of-the-road matchup for opposing tight ends and given his underwhelming usage, Knox will remain in the TE15 range for me until he starts producing. But perhaps more targets will head his way if McKenzie is ruled out.

Steelers

Quarterback

The Kenny Pickett era began last week, and while the production wasn’t great, there are reasons to be excited. For starters, Pickett threw the ball down the field, sporting an aDOT of 13.2 yards with four of his 13 passing attempts going 20 or more yards downfield. He also scored two rushing touchdowns, both of which came off designed plays. While there is definitely some excitement and he provides this offense with more upside than Mitch Trubisky, I would not recommend starting him against the Bills, regardless of how banged up this defense is. Buffalo just held Lamar Jackson to 144 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions last week, and Jackson only threw for 36 yards and two interceptions in the second half. 

Running Back

Najee Harris rushed for 74 scoreless yards on 18 carries last week, failing to see a target. It was the first game of his career where he wasn’t targeted in the passing game, which is really hurting his upside in fantasy. Harris’ target share is under 9% to start the season, down from his 14.3% target share from a season ago, which was among the league’s best among running backs. It is still difficult to get away from Harris, but once again, I am tempering expectations against a Buffalo run defense that is stuffing 27% of runs against them at or behind the line of scrimmage this year, the second-highest rate in football. The Bills are also allowing just 1.49 points and 24.1 yards per drive so far this season, the seventh- and second-best marks in the league.

Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson is coming off a down game, but he probably should have had a 20-yard touchdown. It was initially called incomplete, the Steelers challenged it, but the call stood despite it looking like Johnson got both feet in. Anyway, Johnson saw just four targets, his fewest in a game since Week 5 of the 2021 season. It’ll be interesting to see how much the target distribution changes with Pickett under center. 33% of Trubisky’s pass attempts have been to the intermediate left part of the field, a top-five rate in the league. In a limited sample, 75% of Pickett’s passes went to that area of the field, which is notable considering Johnson lines up on the left side of the formation nearly 60% of the time. Johnson still projects as the WR1 in Pittsburgh but a change in quarterback and a tough matchup has him in the low-end WR2 range for me in Week 4. 

If he was dropped in your leagues, go add George Pickens. Stop reading this article, go to your league and pick him up. Pickens has obviously shown flashes so far this season, but he is coming off a career game against the Jets, catching 6-of-8 targets for 102 yards. Five of his eight targets came with Pickett under center, and he was targeted on over 30% of his routes once Pickett entered the game. Pickens currently ranks second in the league with 11 targets of 20 yards or more, four of which came last week alongside Pickett. However, we did see him run a larger variety of routes last week, rather than simply running vertical routes, which could lead to a higher floor, especially if he simply just passes Chase Claypool in this offense. The matchup this week isn’t easy, but if your wide receivers are uninspiring, Pickens could be worth a look, especially since he appears to be on the rise.

Source: NFL Next Gen Stats

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth continues to see a healthy number of targets. He is coming off a strong game, catching seven passes for 85 yards, while seeing nine targets. His 24% target share ranks top five among all tight ends so far this season, making it difficult to bench him regardless of the matchup or who is under center for the Steelers. Buffalo has been great against tight ends since last year and just held Mark Andrews to two catches for 15 yards, but tight end is too shallow to consider sitting Freiermuth. He’s a back-end TE1 once again.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 44.5, JAC -7
Pace: JAC: 28.17 sec/snap (18th), HOU: 26.49 sec/snap (5th)

What to watch for: Zay Jones (ankle) missed Sunday’s game. We’ll see if he returns to the lineup this week.

Jaguars

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence is coming off a tough game in Week 4, as the combination of the weather and a tough Eagles defense gave him trouble. He threw for 174 yards and two scores but added an interception and four lost fumbles. He struggled with the snap multiple times in the rain but now gets to return home to sunny Jacksonville, where the Jaguars host a Houston defense that is allowing opposing offenses to score points on 40.4% of drives so far this season, the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. I’m still a fan of what Doug Pederson is doing with this offense and in a strong matchup, Lawrence can be viewed as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 this weekend.

Running Back

James Robinson was held to just 29 rushing yards on eight carries against the Eagles, logging a season-low 47% of the snaps, as the Jaguars were playing from behind in the second half of the game. It was a tough spot, but now Robinson gets a dream matchup against the Texans run defense that has been laughably bad so far this season, coughing up 27.3 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, the second most in football. Houston is also still leading the league in missed tackles (36) and allowing 172 rushing yards per game. They just allowed three touchdowns to Austin Ekeler last week and are coughing up more yards before first contact than any team in the NFL through four weeks. That bodes well for Robinson, who ranks 13th in yards before contact per attempt (2.8). In a game where the Jaguars are touchdown favorites at home, Robinson sets up to finish as a top-12 running back once again this week.

Meanwhile, Travis Etienne tied his season-high 51% snap share last week, as Jacksonville was chasing points for the first time in a few weeks. Still, he only touched the ball eight times for 32 yards, and he still projects better in games where the Jaguars are playing from behind. That seems unlikely this week, but if Etienne sees 10-12 touches, that could be all it takes to warrant flex consideration in this stellar matchup. 

Wide Receiver

Zay Jones being sidelined last week had a direct impact on Christian Kirk. The former Arizona wideout has played out of the slot 72% of the time so far this season, but with Jones inactive Sunday, Jamal Agnew moved into the slot, lining up there over 62% of the time, while Kirk only played out of the slot 48.1% of the time. We want Kirk playing in the slot more, getting those advantageous matchups where he sees coverage from linebackers or safeties, while seeing plenty of free releases. So I actually would feel more confident in Kirk if Jones returns to the lineup this week. He was still targeted nine times last week, giving him a healthy 28% target share through four weeks. Kirk remains a viable WR2 in a matchup against the Texans.

If Jones does play, I also think he’s a viable flex play. He has seen 24 targets through three games and because the Jaguars are running 11 personnel as much as any team in the league, Jones is on the field a ton. And unlike Marvin Jones, Zay actually moves inside a little bit, playing out of the slot just over 40% of the time.

Tight End

Evan Engram is coming off a quiet game, catching just one pass for 16 yards. He’s still at best the third or fourth option in this offense right now, but at least he’s dominating the playing time at tight end for the Jaguars, playing 74% of the snaps and running a route on 74% of dropbacks. If you are looking to stream the tight end position, you could do a lot worse than Engram, especially against a Houston team that just coughed up 61 yards and a touchdown to Gerald Everett.

Texans

Quarterback

Davis Mills has now thrown four interceptions over the last two weeks but did throw a pair of touchdowns last week. Per usual, I don’t have much interest in starting him in fantasy, especially against a quietly tough Jacksonville defense that currently ranks fourth in the NFL in pressure rate (29.3%). They also just held Jalen Hurts to a season-low 16.9 fantasy points a week ago. 

Running Back

Dameon Pierce has now recorded consecutive games with 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, coming off a career day against the Chargers. Pierce rushed for 131 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, as his 75-yard touchdown run set up his huge day. He still handled every single running back carry for the Texans, while even adding six receptions on six targets. Pierce once again played the majority of the early downs, while Rex Burkhead played all but one third down in the game. The Texans continue to stay in games to allow Pierce to get plenty of carries and while the Jaguars have been tough against the run for most of the season, they were just torched by the Eagles ground attack last week, as Miles Sanders rushed for 134 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The matchup is enhanced if Jaguars’ defensive tackle Folorunso Fatukasi (quadriceps) can’t play, as the Eagles really got it going once he left the game last week. Pierce is an RB2 once again. 

Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks scored his first touchdown of the year last week, hauling in seven passes for 57 yards in the process. Still flirting with a 26% target share for the year, Cooks’ floor remains relatively high each week. Jacksonville ranks 16th against wide receivers so far this season, so while this isn’t an outstanding matchup, it certainly isn’t a poor one either. Cooks can continue to be trusted as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Tight End

The Texans were missing Brevin Jordan and Pharaoh Brown Sunday (and Brown is now on the, ahem, Browns), but the team still used three tight ends. I’ll continue to look elsewhere at tight end for fantasy purposes. 

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Total: 44, MIN -7
Pace: MIN: 25.37 sec/snap (4th), CHI: 28.17 sec/snap (17th)

What to watch for: David Montgomery missed Sunday’s game. If he is back for Week 5, Khalil Herbert would no longer be a must-start running back.

Vikings

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins didn’t play poorly in London last week, but the Vikings struggled to score points in the red zone. Cousins finished the game with 273 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He’s thrown for at least 260 yards in three of four games to start the season, but Minnesota’s red zone struggles have limited him to just two multiple-touchdown games so far. The Vikings are scoring touchdowns on just 46.7% of their red zone trips this season, the eighth-lowest rate in the NFL. Cousins will remain on the QB1/QB2 borderline in a home matchup against the Bears, who are only allowing 15.8 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (21st). However, they are also facing the fewest pass attempts per game (25.3), so it isn’t due to the Bears necessarily being a great pass defense. They are also allowing 11.0 yards per completion, good for the 10th-worst rate in football.

Running Back

Despite dealing with a shoulder injury, Dalvin Cook practiced in full to end the week and was active Sunday. His usage wasn’t limited, as Cook touched the football 22 times, while logging around 63% of the snaps. He did, however, cede third down work to Alexander Mattison, who played 13-of-14 third-down snaps in the game. Cook has underwhelmed a bit to start the season and for whatever reason, Minnesota isn’t giving him the ball very much in the red zone. In fact, Cook has only seen one carry from inside the 5-yard line so far this season, and despite the Vikings ranking ninth in red zone plays (15), Cook ranks just 30th in all of football with five red zone carries. The 18 touches per game are still solid and a matchup with the Bears is incredible. Chicago has allowed two 100-yard games to running backs this season, as well as the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (21.73). 52.1% of the yardage and 62.5% of the touchdowns scored against the Bears this year have come via the run, the highest and second-highest rates in football. 

Wide Receiver

After consecutive poor outings, Justin Jefferson bounced back in a huge way last week. He caught 10 passes for 140 yards, adding a three-yard rushing touchdown. Jefferson was targeted 13 times in the game and is now sporting a 29% target share and 41.2% air yards share on the young season. He is an obvious must-start wideout and if Bears top defensive back Jaylon Johnson (quad) is unable to return to the lineup, I have no clue how the Bears will stop Jefferson. If Johnson is out, Jefferson will see coverage from Jaylon Jones, a 2022 UDFA, as well as Kindle Vildor, who is allowing 0.24 fantasy points per coverage route and a 64% catch rate. 

Adam Thielen has now seen 17 targets over the last two weeks, converting them into 14 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown during that stretch. He’s still a solid WR3 this week but to continue seeing 7-10 targets, Thielen will likely need the Bears to keep this game close and force the Vikings to score points.

Tight End

Irv Smith hasn’t been doing a ton so far, but he once again played more snaps and ran more routes than Johnny Mundt. He played 64% of the snaps last week, a season-high mark, which is where he needs to be to warrant consideration in fantasy leagues. His target total is likely to be middling but he’s a viable streaming option going forward.

Bears

Quarterback

Justin Fields attempted a season-high 22 passes Sunday. 22 passes. Season-high. In the year 2022. 

This Bears offense just doesn’t provide enough passing volume to have any confidence in the passing game. Fields is averaging 8.5 completions per game through four weeks, while Chicago’s gaudy 18.4% adjusted sack rate is pretty easily the highest rate in the league. It is nice to see Fields at least averaging 8.5 rushing attempts per game this season, which provides him with somewhat of a floor but when you are only averaging 16.7 pass attempts per game, the ceiling remains limited, even against a vulnerable Minnesota defense.

Running Back

With David Montgomery sidelined Sunday, Khalil Herbert got the start at running back. He played 77% of the snaps, recording 20 touches for 101 total yards. Herbert didn’t find the end zone, but the usage was great, as he’s averaging right around 21 touches per game over his last six games Montgomery has not played. If Montgomery remains sidelined for Week 5, Herbert will remain a must-start running back, especially against a Vikings defense that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points (23.1) and third-most rushing touchdowns (1.0) per game to opposing backfields. Herbert’s floor might be 17-20 touches when you consider that the Bears are running the football 60.3% of the time in neutral gamescripts, easily the highest rate in the league. And while the Bears’ pass-blocking unit has struggled, they have quietly created plenty of running lanes, as Herbert is averaging 3.7 yards before contact per rush this season, tied for the second-best mark in the league.

Wide Receiver

Darnell Mooney is coming off his best game of the season, catching four passes for 94 yards. He and Fields connected on a 56-yard pass play that made Mooney’s day. The good news? Mooney is sporting a healthy 24.7% target share this season. The bad news? The Bears aren’t throwing the ball much at all. We have seen Chicago move Mooney into the slot more so far this season, lining up there 61% of the time, a number that was around 44% a year ago. This is a solid matchup, too, as Minnesota is allowing the fifth-highest aDOT in the league (8.8 yards). Mooney will see coverage from Chandon Sullivan, who is allowing a healthy 0.30 fantasy points per coverage route this year, as well as a whopping 87% catch rate. If you guaranteed me that the Bears would throw the ball 30-35 times this week, I’d confidently start Mooney as a WR3. However, the risk that Fields attempts 16 passes makes Mooney a risky play once again.

Tight End

Cole Kmet has five catches for 56 yards through four weeks. It isn’t going to happen for him, especially in this 1970s offense. 

Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots

Total: 46.5, NE -3
Pace: NE: 29.57 sec/snap (27th), DET: 26.73 sec/snap (6th)

What to watch for: Will D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown return to the Lions lineup? And for the Patriots, Mac Jones is dealing with an ankle injury, while Brian Hoyer is dealing with a concussion.

Patriots

Quarterback

With Mac Jones ruled out last week, veteran signal caller Brian Hoyer got the start at quarterback. However, he left the game with a head injury, thrusting rookie Bailey Zappe into the lineup. Whether Zappe or Hoyer (or a still-recovering Jones) start at quarterback this week, even against the Lions, I don’t envision a scenario where either quarterback needs to be started on any fantasy rosters. And yes, I understand the matchup is as good as it gets, but the Patriots are simply going to run the ball the entire game like they did last week, calling run 57% of the time in neutral gamescripts.

Running Back

Start both New England running backs in Week 4. Rhamondre Stevenson has outsnapped Damien Harris over the last two weeks, logging 62% and 55% of the snaps, while Harris has been at 38% and 45% during that span. However, Harris is getting the football when he’s on the field — he touched the ball 19 times last week, rushing for 86 yards and a touchdown. A matchup with the Lions is elite, as Detroit just allowed over 100 yards and a pair of scores to Rashaad Penny last week, For the season, the Lions are allowing 28.4 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, the second most in football, and their 2.5 rushing touchdowns allowed per game are easily the most in the league. Harris remains the preferred goal-line running back, which is great in a matchup against a Detroit team that is allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 13-of-15 red zone trips (86.7%) this season, the worst rate in the league. Harris also very quietly has five targets (yes, targets) from inside the 10-yard line this season, tied for sixth in football. He’s handled 62.5% of the Patriots targets from that part of the field, which is the highest rate in all of football. Shocking.

Stevenson also can be started as an RB2 with confidence. Over the last two weeks, he is averaging 17 touches per game, as we have seen him take over the passing downs role in the absence of Ty Montgomery. And during that span, Stevenson is sporting a 20.5% target share, the third-highest rate among all running backs. Against a Lions team that is coughing up 2.78 points (second most) and 38.7 yards per drive (third most), Stevenson and Harris both have a tremendous chance of finishing as top-20 fantasy running backs for Week 5.

Wide Receiver

This is also a good matchup for the Patriots wide receivers, though the quarterback situation is up in the air right now. Jakobi Meyers missed last week’s game, which led to DeVante Parker playing all but two snaps and running a route on 100% of New England’s dropbacks. He found the end zone but was only targeted twice. I guess he’ll be on the radar if Meyers remains sidelined, especially against a Lions defense that plays as much man coverage as anyone. And according to Player Profiler, Parker is averaging 2.01 fantasy points per target against man coverage so far this season, a top-30 rate among all wide receivers.

If Meyers plays, however, I’d pretty easily rank him the highest of the Patriots pass-catchers. However, New England could throw the ball only 20-25 times in this game. The Lions have been vulnerable to slot receivers to start the season, so this matchup is favorable, but we have to see if he is active, while I’d feel a lot more confident in starting him if Mac Jones was under center.

Tight End

Jonnu Smith left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury and did not return. If he is unable to play this week, it makes Hunter Henry a more appealing streaming tight end, especially against a Lions team that just allowed both Noah Fant and Will Dissly to find the end zone against them last week. And for the season, the Lions are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points (13.63) and seventh-most receiving yards (65.0) per game to opposing tight ends so far this season.

Lions

Quarterback

No D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown? No problem for Jared Goff, who threw for 378 yards and four touchdowns against the Seahawks in Week 4. Goff is now the QB5 in all of fantasy right now, averaging just under 23 fantasy points per game. The Lions are truly the gift that keeps on giving, as they lead the NFL in points per game on offense (35.0) and allow the most points per game on defense (35.3), forcing Goff to average just under 38 pass attempts per game. Goff has been more aggressive this season, too, averaging 8.8 intended air yards per pass attempt, the seventh-highest mark in the league and way up from his mark of 6.4 from a season ago, a number that was lower than any qualified signal caller. Hopefully the Lions offense can get healthy this week but against a Patriots defense that is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (21.2), Goff is a high-end QB2 right now.

Running Back

With Swift out of the lineup last week, Jamaal Williams actually only played 50% of the snaps. However, he still touched the ball 20 times, rushing for 108 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He is now the RB6 in all of fantasy football, and with Swift likely out through Detroit’s bye, Williams should once again see 17-20 touches and all of the goal-line work. The veteran running back leads the league in carries from inside the 5-yard line with eight, while handling 100% of Detroit’s carries from that area of the field. You can absolutely run on the Patriots, as they are coughing up 135.8 rushing yards per game this year, the seventh-most in the league. Assuming Swift remains sidelined, Williams should be viewed as a top-15 running back once again this weekend.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark were both out of the lineup last week. As a result, Josh Reynolds operated as Detroit’s No. 1 wide receiver, hauling in 7-of-8 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. Reynolds ran a route on about 93% of dropbacks. If St. Brown and Chark can’t return to the lineup, he would remain a viable WR3 play against a New England defense that is coughing up a 6.2% passing touchdown rate, the third-highest rate in the NFL. 

Of course, you are starting St. Brown if he is active. He is sporting a 30.3% target share on the year, while seeing double-digit targets and at least a 30% target share in eight of his last nine games. St. Brown is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game during that stretch and is the obvious focal point of Detroit’s offense.

Tight End

If you played against T.J. Hockenson in Week 4, I’m sorry. Hockenson was dominant against the Seahawks, catching 8-of-12 targets for a whopping 179 yards and two touchdowns. It was the sixth-most fantasy points in a game by a tight end in fantasy history … Hockenson was tackled at the 1-yard line late in the game, meaning it could have been the best game of all time from a tight end. He saw multiple end zone targets and even ripped off an 81-yard catch-and-run. Hockenson is a must-start tight end regardless of whether St. Brown and Chark return to the lineup. And while the Patriots were great against opposing tight ends a season ago, they have struggled so far this season, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points (13.98) per game to the position. No team in football has allowed more touchdown receptions to tight ends (5). 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Cleveland Browns

Total: 48, LAC -3
Pace: CLE: 28.59 sec/snap (23rd), LAC: 28.35 sec/snap (21st)

What to watch for: Keenan Allen hasn’t played since Week 1 with a hamstring injury. He should once again be considered questionable. 

Browns

Quarterback

After playing really well in Weeks 2 and 3, Jacoby Brissett struggled in Week 4 against the Falcons, completing just 21-of-35 passes for 234 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. For the most part, Brissett has played well this season, but it hasn’t translated to much upside in fantasy, as he’s yet to even reach 18 fantasy points in a game. As you’d expect, Cleveland is relying on the ground game. I wouldn’t start Brissett in anything outside of superflex formats.

Running Back

Nick Chubb continues to dominate. He added to his impressive start to the season Sunday, rushing for 118 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. Through four weeks, Chubb ranks seventh in yards per attempt (5.7), first in missed tackles forced (32), first in runs of 10-plus yards (15) and second in runs of 15-plus yards (7). 15% of Chubb’s carries are gaining at least 10 yards, an outstanding rate. Cleveland is running the football 51.2% of the time in neutral gamescripts this season, the fifth-highest rate in the league, while Chubb is averaging 20.2 carries per game. This week, he faces a Chargers defense that was supposed to be improved against the run, but we haven’t seen it. They just allowed 131 yards and a touchdown to Dameon Pierce in Week 4, while only the Lions and Texans are coughing up more fantasy points per game to opposing backfields than the Chargers (26.48). Chubb is an obvious top-five running back this week.

Kareem Hunt has put together consecutive underwhelming outings, but the volume is still solid, averaging 14.25 touches per game on the season. He is averaging a respectable 3.25 targets per game and faces a Chargers defense that is allowing the fourth-most receptions (7.0), ninth-most targets (7.5) and fifth-most receiving yards (45.3) per game to opposing running backs. Hunt remains a viable RB2, though I’d be more comfortable with him as a flex option in most leagues.

Wide Receiver

With Cleveland’s passing game struggling last week, Amari Cooper’s numbers took a hit. He caught just one pass for nine yards, as A.J. Terrell — who has had some struggles to start the year — did a tremendous job in coverage against him. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Terrell shadowed him on 79% of his routes, limiting his production. Cooper’s rates are still very promising — he sports a 26% target share and his 43.7% air yards share is the fifth-highest rate among receivers so far this season. Los Angeles has a tough secondary on paper, but they have struggled a bit this season, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. J.C. Jackson has missed two of four games, and opposing No. 1 wide receivers have scored against the Chargers in three of four weeks. Cooper remains a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Tight End

David Njoku was once again very productive last week, catching 5-of-7 targets for 73 yards. He did lose a fumble, but Njoku played 92% of the snaps and ran a route on 87% of dropbacks. For the season, he is being targeted on 21% of his routes run, one of the highest rates in the league at the position, while his 8.7 yards per target rank sixth among all tight ends. Njoku is flirting with back-end TE1 status right now.

Chargers

Quarterback

Justin Herbert and the Chargers bounced back last week. He threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns, completing just over 69% of his passes. He is averaging 312 passing yards per game through four weeks, and we are starting to see more consistent throws down the field from Herbert, who is tied for sixth among quarterbacks in deep passing attempts (19). That could bode well against a Cleveland pass defense that is struggling right now. The Browns are allowing the highest aDOT in the league (9.7 yards), while also coughing up the third-most yards per completion (12.2). Herbert looks healthy and should once again post top-10 numbers here. 

Running Back

After a few underwhelming weeks, Austin Ekeler went off in Week 4 to the tune of 109 total yards and three touchdowns. He still played less than 60% of the snaps but played every snap for the Chargers in the red zone. We didn’t see the team have any goal-line snaps, as Ekeler’s touchdowns came from 10, 20 and 14 yards out, but the production was great to see. Ekeler has a whopping 25 targets over the last three weeks and gets a second consecutive great matchup. Cleveland was just destroyed by the Falcons rushing attack last week, allowing nearly 6.0 yards per carry and two touchdowns to Atlanta running backs. Four Falcons running backs got carries last week and they combined for six runs of 10 or more yards. Start Ekeler with confidence and expect a strong game once again.

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen hasn’t played since Week 1 — it appeared he could return in Week 4, but he left Thursday’s practice with a trainer, didn’t practice Friday and was ultimately ruled out. It remains to be seen whether Allen suffered a setback or if the Chargers are just being cautious, but head coach Brandon Staley once again said Allen is day-to-day. If he is active, I am most likely starting Allen as a WR2, but we’ll have to keep an eye on his status throughout the week.

With Allen once again sidelined last week, Mike Williams saw a 29.7% target share. He caught 7-of-11 targets for 120 yards, including a 50-yard connection with Herbert. Williams has recorded at least 100 yards or a touchdown in three of four games so far this season and regardless of Allen’s status, he is a borderline must-start wide receiver. Drake London had a quiet game against this Cleveland defense last week, but that was mainly due to the Falcons establishing the run in that game. Denzel Ward has only shadowed once this season and that was Week 3 against Diontae Johnson. Could they shadow Williams if Allen is out? Sure, but I don’t expect it, which would mean Williams would line up against Martin Emerson, a 2022 third-round rookie. 

Finally, Joshua Palmer was disappointing last week, catching just one pass for 25 yards. He only played 56% of the snaps, way below his usual 90% slot rate when Allen or Williams is out of the lineup. Palmer was dealing with a minor ankle injury that may have resulted in his massive drop in playing time. Assuming he returns to his usual role if Allen is out again this week, I’d still be fine going back to Palmer as a WR3/flex play against the Browns.

Tight End

Gerald Everett caught five passes for 61 yards and a score last week, his second touchdown of the season. He has seen at least six targets in each of his last three games and is averaging about 6.0 yards after the catch per reception. I would continue to start Everett as a back-end TE1, regardless of Allen’s status. 

Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints

Total: 46, NO -5.5
Pace: NO: 27.1 sec/snap (17th), SEA: 28.45 sec/snap (19th)

What to watch for: Alvin Kamara (ribs) was a surprise inactive last Sunday. The Saints were also without Jameis Winston (back) and Michael Thomas (foot).

Saints

Quarterback

Jameis Winston missed last week’s game with a back injury. Andy Dalton got the start and basically performed exactly how we’d expect, passing for 236 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions. We’ll see if Winston can get back into the lineup, because if he does, he has top-12 upside against an awful Seattle defense. The Seahawks are allowing a 5.6% passing touchdown rate, the eighth-highest rate in the league. Seattle is also coughing up the most yards (45.1), points (3.03) and plays (6.9) per drive so far this season, while opposing offenses are scoring points on 55.3% of drives against the Seahawks, which is easily the highest rate in the NFL. No team in the league is allowing more yards per completion than Seattle (13.0), which would bode extremely well for Winston, as 16.5% of his pass attempts have traveled 20 yards or more down the field, the sixth-highest rate in the league. With the Seahawks also allowing the fourth-highest aDOT in the league (9.3 yards), Winston could take advantage of this matchup in Week 5. If he’s active, I’d start him as a high-end QB2 with serious upside.

Running Back

Mark Ingram got the start at running back last week with Alvin Kamara ruled out (ribs). He left the game for a little bit with an injury but did return, which limited him to a 48% snap share and 12 touches. Latavius Murray played 48% of the snaps and rushed for 57 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. Murray is now in Denver, so if Kamara can’t play Sunday, it’ll be difficult not to start Ingram, especially given the matchup. The Seahawks have been atrocious against opposing running backs this season, surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per game (25.9) to opposing backfields. Seattle has also allowed four rushing touchdowns to running backs, as well as an additional receiving score to the position. Of course, if Kamara is good to go, you are starting him, while it is possible he sees more targets if Dalton is under center once again. 

Wide Receiver

Michael Thomas missed last week’s game with a foot injury. Hopefully he can get back on the field this week — if he does, he’s a low-end WR2 against an inexperienced, vulnerable Seattle secondary. Thomas will line up against rookie Tariq Woolen, who is a talented player but allows some huge plays, surrendering 15.3 yards per reception and an aDOT over 16 yards in coverage so far this season. 

Chris Olave continues to thrive, as he operated as New Orleans’ clear WR1 last week. He caught four passes for 67 yards and a touchdown and has now seen a whopping 33 targets over the last three weeks. Olave still leads the NFL in air yards (673) and it is by a large margin, while his 2.46 yards per route run ranks 12th best among all qualified wide receivers. No player in football has seen more deep targets than Olave (14) and he could make some more plays down the field against a Seattle defense allowing a league-worst 6.7 yards per play so far this season. Start Olave with confidence as a WR3, while his ceiling is likely higher if Winston is back under center for the Saints.

Finally, Jarvis Landry has fallen off since his outlier Week 1 performance. After recording 114 receiving yards in Week 1, Landry has racked up 54 receiving yards in three games since. Olave has quickly passed him as the WR2 on this team and even against a Seattle defense that ranked bottom-five against slot wide receivers last year, I’d be hesitant to start Landry this week.

Tight End

With Michael Thomas sidelined last week, the Saints ran more multiple-TE sets. Adam Trautman ended up leading the Saints tight ends in snap share (65%), a season-high rate. He also ran 10 routes to Juwan Johnson’s 10. Taysom Hill is also still playing enough snaps to muddy things up, also seeing the occasional goal-line carry. 

Seahawks

Quarterback

Through four weeks, one of the most efficient quarterbacks in all of football? That’s right. Geno Smith.

Smith leads all qualified signal callers in adjusted completion percentage (81.7%), ranking top-five in EPA per play. He has scored 23.0 and 34.7 fantasy points over the last two weeks, with Seattle finally seeing an uptick in both pace and early-down pass rate. The Seahawks are sporting a 19% no-huddle rate so far this season, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, which makes this offense much more appealing for fantasy. It seems unlikely that Smith continues to average the eighth-most fantasy points per dropback (0.55) and while a matchup with the Saints isn’t exactly the greatest, New Orleans is struggling to get after opposing quarterbacks, sporting a pressure rate of just 14.8%, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Smith has shown enough to warrant consideration as a solid QB2.

Running Back

Rashaad Penny destroyed the Lions defense last week, rushing for 151 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 17 carries. With third-down back Travis Homer on IR, it was possible DeeJay Dallas would simply take on that role. However, Penny actually played five third-down snaps, the most from this backfield, while Dallas only played three total snaps on offense. Penny is pretty clearly the RB1 right now, especially since Kenneth Walker has played just 33 snaps over the last two weeks. The Saints run defense is still tough, though they haven’t been as impenetrable as they have been. New Orleans has allowed multiple 100-yard rushing performances already this season and we know Penny has as much home run potential as any running back in the league, as over 49% of his total rushing yardage has come off runs of 15-plus yards, the sixth-highest rate in the league.

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf is coming off his best game of the season, catching seven passes for 149 yards. He was targeted 10 times, giving him double-digit targets in each of the last two games. With Seattle’s offense playing fast and throwing more, Metcalf is a high-upside WR2, even in a potentially tough matchup against Marshon Lattimore and the Saints. For what it is worth, however, Lattimore shadowed Metcalf on 84% of his routes when these teams met last season, but Metcalf beat him for an 84-yard touchdown, and that was when Smith was under center and struggling. Metcalf is also dominating the red zone usage for the Seahawks, seeing 46.2% of the team’s red zone looks, the second-highest rate in all of football.

Tyler Lockett is a strong WR3, as he’s been fantastic over the last three weeks. During that stretch, Lockett is averaging eight receptions, 10 targets and 91.3 receiving yards per game. It’ll be tough to get away from him this week.

Tight End

Seattle continues to use a committee at tight end, making it difficult to depend on Will Dissly or Noah Fant on a weekly basis, despite the fact that both players found the end zone last week. On the year, Dissly has logged 63% of the snaps, while Fant is hovering around the 56% mark, while Fant has run 71 routes to Dissly’s 64.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 48, TB -8.5
Pace: TB: 27.4 sec/snap (13th), ATL: 28.27 sec/snap (20th)

What to watch for: Cordarrelle Patterson has been placed on injured reserve and will miss at least the next four weeks.

Buccaneers

Quarterback

With all his pass-catchers back in action, Tom Brady returned to being a top-five fantasy quarterback last week, though Tampa Bay having to chase points didn’t hurt. Brady attempted 52 passes Sunday night against the Chiefs, passing for 385 yards and three touchdowns. We had seen Tampa Bay transform into a run-first offense for the first three weeks of the season, but I expect more passing going forward. This could be the start of a stellar run from Brady, as he hosts a Falcons defense that is surrendering the third-most points (2.53), third-most plays (6.7) and fourth-most yards (38.6) per drive. Opposing offenses are also scoring points on 47.5% of the drives against Atlanta so far this season, the second-highest rate in the league. And to make this matchup even more favorable, the Falcons are also sporting the league’s third-lowest pressure rate at 14.3%. Brady is a top-seven quarterback for me this week.

Running Back

Despite rushing for negative-3 yards last week, Leonard Fournette still scored 18.4 fantasy points, salvaging his day with seven receptions for 57 yards and a touchdown. Tampa Bay was chasing points for the final three quarters, which is why he only had the three carries. I am still starting Fournette as a top-12 fantasy running back, but there are some reasons to be a little bit concerned. In the week leading up to this game, the Bucs said they wanted to get rookie running back Rachaad White more involved, and that happened in Week 4. Fournette saw a season-low 61% snap share, while White’s 38% was a career-high. The rookie touched the ball eight times, including a touchdown reception, and it was encouraging to see the Bucs not go away from him after he fumbled the opening kickoff. Fournette would play two drives and then White would get a drive, a rotation that could continue over the course of the season. 

Wide Receiver

After a one-game suspension, Mike Evans returned to action in Week 4 and dominated, catching eight passes for 103 yards and two touchdowns. He was targeted 10 times and immediately returned to his role as Brady’s top target, especially in the red zone. Evans saw three end zone targets in that game alone and has as much touchdown upside as any wideout in football right now. He’ll likely see shadow coverage from A.J. Terrell in this game, who followed Amari Cooper on 75% of his routes last week. Because he’s allowed five touchdowns already, Terrell is coughing up 0.53 fantasy points per coverage route, the most in the league, but he is still an elite defensive back. Still, you aren’t benching Evans in any formats.

Chris Godwin also returned to the lineup and was not limited, playing around 83% of the snaps and running a route on 85% of dropbacks. Godwin saw 10 targets in the game and while his final line of 7-59-0 wasn’t great, it was more important to see Godwin finish this game without any setbacks. He has returned to a must-start, top-20 fantasy wide receiver, especially against Dee Alford, who is being targeted every 5.6 coverage snaps when in slot coverage so far this season.

Tight End

Cameron Brate is in the concussion protocol and is questionable to play in Week 5. Brate suffered the concussion in the first half of the game against Kansas City and in his absence, rookie Cade Otton operated as Tampa Bay’s clear top tight end, running a route on nearly 90% of dropbacks after Brate left the game. Kyle Rudolph was inactive for this game, so it is likely he plays next week and eats into Otton’s playing time. But this is a situation to keep tabs on, especially if you need tight end help in deeper leagues.

Falcons

Quarterback

I had interest in Marcus Mariota as a streaming option last week, but apparently Arthur Smith took a page out of the Bears playbook. The Falcons sported a 63% rush rate in neutral gamescripts last week, with Mariota attempting just 19 passes. At one point during the game, the Falcons called 14 consecutive run plays. Mariota has a tough Week 5 matchup against an angry Tampa Bay defense that is blitzing at the league’s seventh-highest rate (30.2%). That isn’t great for Mariota, who ranks 21st in completion percentage (59.4%) and 20th in yards per attempt (6.2) against the blitz this season.

Running Back

Entering last week, Cordarrelle Patterson was dealing with a knee injury. He ultimately played but was clearly limited, as he played just 29% of the snaps. Patterson played just six snaps in the second half before sitting down the rest of the game. In his absence, Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley took over the Atlanta backfield and ran really well against the Browns. Allgeier ultimately ended up playing 44% of the snaps, with Huntley playing 22%. Huntley was the team’s early-down/short-yardage running back, seeing three of four snaps at the goal line and converting a goal-line touchdown. Allgeier, meanwhile, operated as the third-down running back, while carrying the ball 10 times for 84 yards. I’d expect similar usage this week against Tampa Bay, which makes both running backs risky starts. Allgeier would be the preferred running back for me, mainly because the Falcons are road underdogs, which should lead to more snaps and targets from Allgeier, who is also just a great fit in this offense. Both Patterson and Mike Davis combined for 216 rushing attempts out of zone last season, which would have led the entire NFL if you combined both running backs. Over 74% of both players’ carries came out of the scheme. During his time at BYU last year, Allgeier accounted for 213 rushing attempts out of zone schemes, a number that was good for fourth most in all of college football. He’s an RB3 in this tough matchup.

Wide Receiver

The story of last week’s game was the dominance of Atlanta’s rushing attack. And although Drake London finished with just two catches for 17 yards, the target share remained elite, as he saw seven of the team’s 19 targets. The rookie London now ranks second among all wide receivers in the NFL in target share (35.2%), and in games where the Falcons have to throw the football (like this one), London has the potential to see 12-15 targets. A matchup with Tampa Bay isn’t easy, as the Bucs rank top-five in yards per pass attempt allowed. Jamel Dean has been very good in coverage so far this season, allowing just a 56% catch rate, as well as a reception every 16.6 coverage snaps. Still, London’s usage is too good to ignore. He’s a low-end WR2 for me.

Tight End

Simply put, I have no idea what the hell the Falcons are doing. Kyle Pitts is already one of the most talented offensive players in all of football, and it’s like the Falcons don’t even care. Pitts caught just one pass for 25 yards last week and has now been held under 30 receiving yards in three of four games. He only ran a route on 60% of Atlanta’s dropbacks, which is just absurd, with the Falcons continuing to limit his upside in how they utilize him in their offense. The upside is still there, as Pitts is averaging 4.1 air yards per route run, which ranks fourth among all players with at least 20 pass routes so far this season. Meanwhile, his 32% air yards share ranks second among all tight ends. Pitts is still a TE1, but this usage has to change and fast.

Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders

Total: 42.5, TEN -2.5
Pace: WAS: 28.68 sec/snap (25th), TEN: 31.24 sec/snap (31st)

What to watch for: Washington rookie WR Jahan Dotson will miss the next week or two with a hamstring injury. Brian Robinson could also make his NFL debut this weekend.

Commanders

Quarterback

As expected, Carson Wentz has come back down to earth over the last two weeks. During that span, Wentz has passed for 381 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, while completing less than 60% of his passes. Washington’s offensive line isn’t doing him any favors, as Wentz has been under pressure on 36.4% of his dropbacks, the ninth-highest rate in the league. A matchup with the Titans could be exactly what Wentz needs to get back on track, though he’ll have to do it without Jahan Dotson. Tennessee is allowing the second-most yards per pass attempt so far this season (8.2), while their 7.0% passing touchdown rate allowed is the second highest. In this Scott Turner offense, Wentz continues to take shots down the field, as his 21 deep passing attempts are the second most among all quarterbacks, while no quarterback has more air yards through four weeks (1,341). The Titans also remain more of a pass funnel defense, as 69.8% of the yardage surrendered by Tennessee have come through the air, the 10th-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, 83.3% of the touchdowns scored against the Titans have been via the pass, the second-highest rate. 

Running Back

It is difficult to feel great starting Antonio Gibson in fantasy right now. Gibson is the RB19 in fantasy right now, but he is trending in the wrong direction. His passing-game usage has come way down since Week 1, and now his snap share has decreased in each of the last three weeks. Gibson still ranks third in the league in rush attempts from inside the 5-yard line (6), handling 100% of Washington’s carries from that part of the field. However, the Titans rank just 20th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing backfields and just held Jonathan Taylor to just 42 rushing yards on 20 carries. There are a lot of running backs I’d start over Gibson this week, especially if Brian Robinson makes his NFL debut.

RBs I’d start over Gibson: Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Devin Singletary, Raheem Mostert

Antonio Gibson Usage by Week

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin is coming off his worst game of the season, catching just two passes for 15 yards. Washington’s offense as a unit struggled, while McLaurin saw plenty of coverage from Trevon Diggs. Through four weeks, McLaurin has been fine, though it is clear that Washington finally having more talent at wide receiver is hurting his upside a bit. That will change for a few weeks, as Jahan Dotson will miss the next 1-2 weeks with a hamstring injury. Dotson leads this Commanders team with four end zone targets, while seeing 43% of the team’s targets from inside the 10-yard line, one of the higher rates in the league. His absence could lead to more red zone looks for McLaurin, who gets a great matchup against a Tennessee defense that is coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points (35.9) and fourth-most receiving yards (196.5) per game to opposing wide receivers. The Titans are also allowing nearly 10 yards per target to wideouts, which bodes well for McLaurin, who ranks fifth among all wideouts in deep targets this season (8). McLaurin is a very solid WR2 ahead of this strong matchup.

It is also difficult to get away from Curtis Samuel, who has led the Commanders in targets in every game this season. He is averaging 9.25 targets per game so far, while sporting a healthy 22% target share. Samuel continues to get manufactured touches in this offense, ranking second in the league in receptions off screens (8), while he lines up in the slot and out of the backfield. Samuel is only posting an aDOT of 4.0, the second-lowest mark among qualified wideouts, which caps his ceiling, but guarantees plenty of receptions. He has three games with at least seven receptions and now gets a matchup with Roger McCreary, who is allowing an 81% catch rate. Continue to start Samuel as a high-end WR3 in PPR leagues.

Tight End

Logan Thomas has only posted 24 receiving yards over the last two weeks, but he at least saw six targets last week. His 74% snap share from Week 4 was his highest mark of the season, while running a route on 71% of dropbacks. There may be even more targets heading his way with Dotson sidelined and this matchup is solid, as Tennessee is coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (14.73). The Titans are also allowing the fifth-most receptions (5.8) per game to the position, while surrendering the third-most touchdowns (3).

Titans

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill only attempted 21 passes last week but was once again efficient, completing 17 passes for 137 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Tannehill has now completed over 70% of passes in consecutive games and now faces a Washington defense that is allowing opposing teams to complete 68% of passes, the ninth-highest rate in the league. The Commanders are also allowing the league’s highest passing touchdown rate at 7.2%, while also surrendering three touchdown passes off play-action. That bodes well for Tannehill, as 38.4% of his dropbacks this season have come off play-action passes, the fourth-highest rate in the league, while two of his five passing scores have come off the play type. Tannehill is a high-end QB2 against Washington’s lowly secondary.

Running Back

It’s happening. Over the last two weeks, Derrick Henry has seen 11 targets, sporting a 24% target share during that span, the highest rate among all running backs. With Tennessee struggling to run block, it appears that the Titans are also starting to use Henry in the passing game as an extension of the running game, as it gives him more opportunities to get out in space and run downhill. If Henry can consistently see 4-6 targets each week, it is going to give him a chance of being the RB1 in fantasy, despite some concerns about his efficiency falling in his age-28 season. Washington just did a tremendous job against the Cowboys running backs last week, but you are obviously starting Henry, who suddenly has more of a floor with this recent uptick in passing game usage. Let’s hope it continues.

Wide Receiver

Treylon Burks suffered a turf toe injury Sunday, which will keep him out of the lineup for some time. It is an awful injury for the Titans and obviously Burks, who was ascending as Tennessee’s lead wide receiver. Going forward, Robert Woods is the only Titans pass-catcher you can even remotely consider in fantasy. He found the end zone last week and has caught four passes in each of the last three games. Woods should be able to flirt with a 25% target share going forward and gets a great Week 5 matchup against a Washington secondary that is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. No team is coughing up more receiving scores per game to opposing wideouts (1.8)

Tight End

The Titans continue to play four tight ends, while Geoff Swaim has essentially doubled Austin Hooper’s playing time over the last two weeks. Despite the favorable matchup, I’d look elsewhere at tight end for the time being.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Total: 44.5, MIA -3
Pace: NYJ: 25.29 sec/snap (3rd), MIA: 29.08 sec/snap (26th)

What to watch for: Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) has been ruled out for this game. Teddy Bridgewater will start at quarterback.

Jets 

Quarterback

Zach Wilson made his 2022 debut last week, and to Jets’ fans delight, the team didn’t have to throw the ball 60 times. Wilson completed just 18-of-36 passes for 252 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions and added adding a touchdown reception, something Kyle Pitts is extremely jealous of. Wilson posted an 8.8-yard aDOT in his first start, while the Jets made more of an effort to get the run game going. I still wouldn’t recommend starting Wilson, even against a Miami defense that is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (24.73). Wilson was awful against the blitz last season, sporting the league’s third-worst completion rate (44.7%), while his 4.8 yards per attempt against the blitz was the second-lowest mark in the league. 

Running Back

In Week 3, Breece Hall played more snaps than Michael Carter for the first time this season. In Week 4, that usage continued to climb, as Hall played 66% of the snaps and out-touched Carter 19-11. He recorded 78 total yards and a touchdown, playing every goal-line snap but also playing nearly 70% of the Jets’ third-down snaps. Now that he appears to have emerged as the top running back on the team, Hall can be started as an RB2, despite a tough matchup with the Dolphins, who are stuffing 30% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the highest rate in the NFL. Just 25.7% of the yards surrendered by Miami have come via the run, the third-lowest rate in the league, so this definitely isn’t a great matchup. However, Hall should be in line for 15-17 touches, which puts him on the RB2 radar.

Michael Carter, meanwhile, shouldn’t be trusted as anything more than a flex, as his snap share has now declined in each of the last two weeks. He’ll probably see 9-12 touches, but with Hall emerging as the goal-line back and still playing plenty of passing downs, I’m not sure how valuable those touches will be.

Wide Receiver

A lot was being made of what to expect from the Jets wide receivers in Wilson’s first start. Would he lean on Elijah Moore or Garrett Wilson? Apparently, the answer was Corey Davis, who led the Jets in targets (7), receptions (5) and receiving yards (74), while finding the end zone. Davis is the forgotten wideout in this offense, but if we remember last preseason, Wilson was targeting Davis at a ridiculous rate, which carried over into the regular season before he got hurt. In eight games alongside Wilson since last season, Davis is averaging nearly seven targets and just over 13 PPR points per game. He’s a viable flex play this week.

Elijah Moore posted a season-high 53 receiving yards last week but was still only targeted four times. It still feels like only a matter of time before Moore — who leads the NFL in routes run at 189 — breaks out, and he’ll have a better chance of doing so against Miami if Xavien Howard (groin) can’t play. Moore is being used a lot down the field, sporting an aDOT of 14.1 yards that ranks 15th among qualified wide receivers and averaging nearly 10 yards before the catch per reception. Unlike last season where Moore was the clear top option in this passing game, the Jets are spreading the ball around. He’s a low-end WR3.

Finally, Garrett Wilson also underwhelmed in his first game alongside Zach Wilson, catching two passes for 41 yards. He did see six targets and continues to play out of the slot around 60% of the time. The rookie Wilson faces a Miami defense that plays man coverage as much as any team in the league, and he ranks ninth in the league with 12 receptions against man coverage this season with one touchdown. Garrett Wilson is also a WR3 but on the higher end.

Tight End

Tyler Conklin is coming off his worst game of the season but still recorded 52 receiving yards on five targets, a good fantasy day for most tight ends. He still leads all tight ends in routes run with 163, dominates the snaps and remains a high-end TE2 against a Miami defense that is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points (13.8), second-most receptions (7.0), fourth-most targets (8.8) and fifth-most receiving yards (73.0) per game to opposing tight ends.

Dolphins

Quarterback

With Tua Tagovailoa sidelined, Teddy Bridgewater will start for the Dolphins this week. He played the second half of last Thursday’s game and was serviceable, completing 14-of-23 passes for 193 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Bridgewater is unlikely to post QB1 numbers, but this scheme and situation is very favorable, especially compared to the offenses he played on in Denver and Carolina. Miami leads the NFL in pre-snap motion rate at over 70%, which helps scheme players open. As a result, just 9.6% of Tagovailoa’s pass attempts this year have been in tight windows, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. We did see Bridgewater attempt two deep passes last week and he faces a Jets pass defense that is allowing the third-highest aDOT (9.5 yards) and eighth-highest yards per attempt (7.7). He’s a viable second quarterback in superflex formats until Tagovailoa is back.

Running Back

Last week, I discussed how difficult it has been to predict this Miami backfield. It is possible it will be easier going forward, but who really knows. In Week 4, Raheem Mostert got the start and recorded 15 carries for 69 yards, adding two receptions. He logged a season-high 72% of the snaps compared to just 28% for Chase Edmonds, who touched the ball just seven times. He did score a touchdown before the half on a shovel pass but also dropped an end zone target earlier in the game. Edmonds has actually been one of the least efficient backs in the league so far this season, averaging just 4.3 yards per touch, which ranks outside the top-35 running backs. He also has just one run of 10 or more yards. Mostert appears to be the running back to target in Miami, though Edmonds has seen more scoring chances, totaling four opportunities from inside the 10-yard line to Mostert’s two.

Wide Receiver

You’re obviously starting Tyreek Hill, who has been amazing to start the season. After a 10-catch, 160-yard outing against the Bengals, Hill is now the WR3 in fantasy, sporting a healthy 31% target share. He’s seen double-digit targets in three-of-four games and although the Jets secondary has done a very good job against opposing wide receivers this season with Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, Hill is still going to thrive. 

Jaylen Waddle struggled last week, catching just two passes for 39 yards. He was limited with a groin injury during the week, and I question how healthy he was. With extra time to get to 100%, I expect more production this week, even though he’ll be matched up with Gardner, who is allowing just a 47.4% catch rate in coverage this season. Waddle and Hill have combined to see 57% of Miami’s targets so far this year.

Tight End

I’ve talked a lot about my concerns with Mike Gesicki, and that isn’t changing. He just isn’t a good fit for Mike McDaniel’s offense, which has led to him playing less than 50% of the snaps in three of four games. Gesicki is running a route on just 51% of Miami’s dropbacks and has been targeted just 10 times through four weeks of play. 

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers

Total: 39, SF -6
Pace: CAR: 24.29 sec/snap (1st), SF: 30.49 sec/snap (29th)

What to watch for: Will the Panthers score a single point against the 49ers defense? Will they even reach the red zone?

Panthers

Quarterback

I don’t even know what else to say about Baker Mayfield at this point. He has more passes batted down at the line of scrimmage than touchdowns. He ranks 31st in adjusted completion percentage (65.7%). He’s passed for under 200 yards in three of four games, and just 64.8% of his passes have been deemed on target, the fourth-worst rate in football. As a result, Carolina’s offense is a trainwreck, ranking 28th in points (1.47), 32nd in time (2:09), 32nd in plays (4.9) and 32nd in yards (23.9) per drive. So what does the league’s worst offense need to get on track? How about a matchup with the league’s top defense? The 49ers are allowing 3.8 yards per play, easily the lowest mark in the league, while they have surrendered just 47 total points through four weeks. 

Yikes.

Running Back

Ben McAdoo and Joe Judge have been awful through four weeks, but even though the Panthers lost last week, I did see at least a little progress in the offense. The Panthers were scheming more targets for Christian McCaffrey in the passing game. He ended the game with nine targets, hauling in every pass for 81 yards and a touchdown. Because the scoring chances don’t appear to be too high in this offense, McCaffrey needs to continue seeing usage in the passing game. I expect it to continue this week against San Francisco’s vaunted pass rush. You are obviously starting McCaffrey, but I have him closer to RB5 or RB6 this week.

Wide Receiver

DJ Moore has clearly been frustrated, but there appeared to be a bit of a squeaky wheel narrative last week, as he was targeted 11 times, with a handful of his targets coming off screens and designed plays, something that had been missing during the first three weeks. But despite seeing 11 targets, Moore only caught six passes for 50 yards, as he continues to struggle with Mayfield. Just 65.5% of Moore’s targets have been deemed catchable this season, the 15th-lowest rate among wide receivers with at least 10 targets. Per the FTN Fantasy Expected Fantasy Points tool, Moore has almost a 13-point difference between expected fantasy points and actual fantasy points, the 12th-highest mark among all wide receivers. Moore has a tough matchup this week against one of the league’s most underrated defensive backs in Emmanuel Moseley, who is allowing just 0.16 fantasy points per coverage route, one of the lower marks in the league. It’ll be tough for me to get Moore into my lineup, despite last week’s uptick in involvement.

WRs I’d start over Moore: Robert Woods, Darnell Mooney, George Pickens

If starting Moore is questionable, Robbie Anderson probably shouldn’t be started in most leagues. He isn’t coming off the field, which is great, and he’s actually just ahead of Moore in difference between expected and actual fantasy points this season. 

Tight End

I’m not considering starting Tommy Tremble in any formats, but it is at least a little bit interesting that he played more than Ian Thomas for the first time all season, seeing six targets. Just something to keep an eye on in deeper formats. 

49ers

Quarterback

As good as San Francisco’s defense has been, the offense has been underwhelming. Jimmy Garoppolo lacks a ton of upside in fantasy, especially in a run-first offense that ranks seventh in the league in neutral script rush rate (49.4%). He has yet to reach 30 pass attempts this season. There just isn’t a ton of appeal here, especially against a Carolina defense that is allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. The Panthers are also allowing the third-fewest yards after the catch in the league (291), which is obviously what this San Francisco offense is predicated on.

Running Back

Jeff Wilson continues to operate as the lead back for San Francisco. He played great Monday night, rushing for 74 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Over the last three weeks, Wilson is averaging a healthy 17.6 touches per game, which makes him a solid RB2 that sees a bump in non-PPR leagues. Carolina is coughing up 134 rushing yards per game so far this season, eighth most, while 39% of the yards surrendered by the Panthers have come on the ground, the ninth-highest rate in the league. 

Wide Receiver

In Week 4, Deebo Samuel reminded anyone who forgot that he is one of the 10 best football players on the planet. Samuel caught six passes for 115 yards and a score on an incredible 57-yard catch-and-run where he made multiple defenders look silly. Samuel leads the league in both targets and receptions off screens, while still also averaging just under five rushing attempts per game. The Panthers have been great at limiting yards after the catch so far this season, but you are obviously still starting Samuel as a low-end WR1. 

Brandon Aiyuk, meanwhile, had a quiet game, catching just four passes for 37 yards. He’s likely going to be inconsistent with minimal upside in this run-first offense, but Aiyuk is also top-10 in both targets and receptions off screens, so San Francisco is still looking to get the ball in his hands, too. He remains a mid-range WR3.

Tight End

George Kittle has been back for two weeks. During that span, he ranks just 15th among tight ends in routes run, with 52. Kittle is so good on a per-target basis, but his value as a blocker limits his upside. He’ll continue to be asked to block more than fantasy players like, especially considering San Francisco is now on its third-string left tackle. It is unlikely that you will be able to bench Kittle unless you also happen to have someone like Tyler Higbee on your fantasy team and there is still plenty of upside.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals

Total: 49, PHI -5
Pace: ARI: 27.94 sec/snap (16th), PHI: 26.77 sec/snap (7th)

What to watch for: Both Darius Slay (forearm) and Jordan Mailata (shoulder) left Sunday’s game and did not return.

Cardinals

Quarterback

It was a slow start last week, but Kyler Murray finished with a strong game, throwing for 207 yards and a pair of touchdowns and adding 26 yards and a score on the ground. The 12 rushing attempts were a season-high for Murray, as the Cardinals finally called more designed runs. In Weeks 1-3, Murray had just seven designed runs but in Week 4, 10 of his 12 runs were designed, which is great to see. Now all we need is Kliff Kingsbury to finally start to implement some pre-snap motion and play-action in this offense. Murray is still averaging just 5.6 yards per pass attempt, the second-lowest mark in the league, as Arizona is struggling to stretch the field. The Eagles present a tough matchup this week, allowing just 5.5 yards per pass attempt, tied for the lowest rate in football, but Murray is not a player I am getting away from, especially at home.

Running Back

In Week 1, James Conner played essentially every offensive snap before the game got out of hand, ultimately logging 72% of the snaps. He suffered an injury in Week 2 — he’s played over the last two weeks, he hasn’t quite been the same full-time player, logging 60% and 66% of the snaps. Conner has touched the ball 18 and 16 times over the last two games and while the efficiency hasn’t been there, the opportunity has. That touch total is most likely his floor going forward. Philadelphia’s run defense remains very tough, and Conner has struggled with efficiency for over a year now. I’m still starting him, but I have him ranked as a mid-range RB2 this weekend.

Wide Receiver

Marquise Brown is playing phenomenal lately. He caught 6-of-11 targets for 88 yards and a touchdown last week, giving him a whopping 28 targets over the last three weeks. Hollywood has seen double-digit targets in each of his last three games, and his target share is flirting with 28%. Brown is also responsible for 44% of Arizona’s air yards so far this season, the fourth-highest rate in football. With DeAndre Hopkins still suspended, Brown will continue to operate as the clear top wideout in Arizona. This week’s matchup is brutal if Darius Slay plays, as he’ll likely shadow Brown, especially since Kingsbury doesn’t understand the concept of moving wide receivers around the formation. Hollywood is lining up as the left wide receiver 75% of the time, so it won’t be too difficult for Slay to follow him. Slay is arguably the league’s best defensive back right now, allowing just a 35% catch rate. Still, the volume will be there for Brown, who is a strong WR2.

After missing the first three weeks of the season, Rondale Moore made his 2022 debut last week. He played 86% of the snaps in his first game back, which was pretty surprising. Moore lined up in the slot just 34.2% of the time, while Greg Dortch remained the slot receiver, lining up inside 76% of the time. However, the Cardinals were also without A.J. Green for this game, so if he returns to the lineup, Moore could move back to the slot, while Dortch operates as the WR4. In 2021, Moore’s usage was downright terrible, as he averaged a comical -0.1 yards before the catch per reception, easily the lowest mark among all wide receivers and his 1.3-yard aDOT was the lowest in football. But in Week 4, his aDOT jumped to 10.4 yards, which likely had to do with him playing out wide more. Moore also saw a pair of screen targets because, well, that’s what the Cardinals do. It was encouraging to see him play so much in his first game back, and he needs to be added in most leagues.

Tight End

Zach Ertz has been a model of consistency to start the season, finishing as a top-12 tight end in every game. His six targets from inside the 10-yard line are tied for the fourth-most in all of football, while only Davante Adams has seen more red zone targets than Ertz (10). The usage is fantastic. Ertz remains a must-start tight end against his former team, an Eagles defense that tends to funnel a lot of passing game production toward the middle of the field.

Eagles

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts is coming off a floor game, though he still flirted with 17 fantasy points. The Eagles rushing attack was dominating the Jaguars, as the running backs combined for three touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line. He finished the game with 16 rushing attempts, now averaging a gaudy 13.25 per game on the season. Hurts is obviously a top-five fantasy signal caller in a potential high-scoring game against an Arizona defense that is allowing the fourth-most points per drive this season (2.51), while opposing offenses are scoring points on 46.2% of drives against the Cardinals, the third-highest rate in the league. 

Running Back

I was completely wrong about Miles Sanders last week. Facing a tough Jacksonville run defense, I thought he would struggle, but the Philadelphia offensive line continued to generate massive running lanes for Sanders, who rushed for a career-high 134 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries. Sanders is now averaging 20 touches per game on the season and per usual, has been very efficient, averaging just under 5.0 yards per carry. Eleven of his carries have gone for at least 10 yards, fourth most in the league, while the Eagles offensive line remains elite, as Sanders is averaging 3.0 yards before contact per rush, good for fourth among all backs. He can be trusted as a strong RB2 against the Cardinals, who are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown has been awesome this season and is coming off a strong 5-catch, 95-yard game. He’s only scored once, but the touchdowns are coming. Brown has at least five catches for 69 yards in every game this season and leads the NFL in air yards share at 50.5%, also ranking top-five in target share (32.2%). The Cardinals are an interesting matchup because overall, their secondary is not good, but they have been very good against opposing top wide receivers for over a year now. So far this season, Byron Murphy has been shadowing wide receivers. He followed Davante Adams on 79% of his routes in Week 2 and Cooper Kupp on 54% in Week 3. Murphy allowed a combined one catch for one yard and a touchdown. Still, Brown is obviously a must-start player, especially against an Arizona defense that is allowing a league-high 624 yards after the catch. 

I really like this spot for DeVonta Smith. The matchup is already favorable, but if Murphy does shadow Brown and does a good job, Smith could go off against the rest of this secondary. The Cardinals are allowing a 5.8% passing touchdown rate, the sixth-highest rate in football, while opponents are scoring touchdowns on 71.4% of their red zone trips against Arizona this season, the eighth-highest rate. Smith is an extremely high-upside WR3 this week.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert isn’t seeing a massive target share in this offense, but he’s been hyper-efficient, recording at least 60 receiving yards in three of four games. No tight end is averaging more yards per target than Goedert (12.0), and he also ranks fourth among tight ends with 20 routes in yards per route run (2.1). No player in all of football — tight end or wide receiver — is averaging more yards after the catch per reception than Goedert’s 12.8, and now he faces an Arizona defense that allows more yards after the catch than any team in the NFL. The Cardinals are also coughing up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (16.52), as well as the most targets per game to the position (9.5). Goedert is one of my favorite players in Week 5, regardless of position.

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams

Total: 43.5, LAR -5.5
Pace: LAR: 29.58 sec/snap (28th), DAL: 26.98 sec/snap (10th)

What to watch for: Noah Brown is expected to practice this week for the Cowboys.

Rams

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford has had a rough season so far. He is currently the QB28 in fantasy and has failed to throw a touchdown in consecutive games (though Week 3 wasn’t his fault). The Rams offense is entirely too predictable right now, while they have zero downfield aerial attack. Of course, the offensive line is a huge concern, too, as Stafford has been under pressure on around 33% of his dropbacks so far this season. Stafford’s 6.3 intended air yards per pass attempt ranks 31st in the league right now, while less than nine percent of his pass attempts have traveled 20-plus yards down the field. After facing San Francisco, the Rams now have to face a tough Cowboys pass rush that ranks second in the league in pressure rate at 32.7%. I’d look to bench Stafford if you can.

QBs I’d start over Stafford: Trevor Lawrence, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz

Running Back

Hopefully you don’t have to start a Rams running back. Cam Akers once again got the start last week and played on early downs, while Darrell Henderson played on third downs and in the red zone. Akers simply has no burst right now, while the Rams are struggling to run the ball as a unit. Having said that, if I were to play a running back from this team, it would be Henderson, simply because he has a better chance of finding the end zone and catching a handful of passes. 

Wide Receiver

Start Cooper Kupp. He’s averaging 13.5 targets per game and is sporting a target share north of 35% through four weeks. Kupp is the best player in fantasy. Enjoy your 20-plus fantasy points.

Allen Robinson, meanwhile, can be dropped from fantasy rosters. He’s literally just running go routes and the only time he’s really being targeted is when the Rams are inside the 10-yard line. Robinson is being targeted on just 11% of his routes run, a bottom-25 rate among wide receivers, while he continues to struggle to create much separation. 

Tight End

Tyler Higbee remains a must-start tight end. He was targeted a whopping 14 times last week, catching 10 passes for 73 yards. A touchdown should have been added to his stat line, but Stafford missed him for a walk-in score. Higbee’s 25% target share is the second-highest rate among all tight ends, as he and Kupp are soaking up all of the targets. And because Stafford is under so much pressure, Higbee has been his safety valve, as his 3.9-yard aDOT suggests. Dallas’ pass rush could lead to plenty of quick targets to Higbee, similar to last week. All he needs to do is find the end zone but given his awesome usage, the touchdowns are coming.

Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott is getting close to returning, but it will once again be Cooper Rush under center for the Cowboys in Week 5. Rush has been very solid in his three starts and is coming off his best stat line of the year, throwing for 223 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Still, I wouldn’t consider him in anything outside of superflex formats.

Running Back

I was very high on both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard last week, but the Washington defense really shut down Dallas’ ground game. Elliott rushed for just 49 yards on 19 carries, while Pollard had six yards on eight carries. Interestingly enough, Pollard is seeing stacked boxes on 27.7% of his carries this season, one of the highest rates in the league. This is a brutal matchup for both running backs, facing a Rams defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (12.0), despite just allowing over 70 yards and a touchdown to Jeff Wilson a week ago. I’d consider Elliott and Pollard as high-end flex plays this weekend.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb is awesome. Over the last three weeks, he’s proven he can be the top wide receiver in an offense. During that span, Lamb is averaging seven receptions, 10.3 targets and 86.3 receiving yards per game, while finding the end zone twice. Lamb is one of three wide receivers that currently rank top-five in both target share (33.7%) and air yards share (45.5%), and while a matchup with the Rams may sound tough, it really isn’t. The Rams are coughing up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, while every opposing No. 1 receiver to face this defense has had either 100 yards or a touchdown. Lamb is a low-end WR1 for me.

Michael Gallup made his 2022 debut last week, logging a healthy 64% of the snaps. He was targeted just three times but made the most of it, catching two passes for 24 yards and a touchdown. There is a chance his playing time increases this week, and the matchup is clearly favorable, especially given the injuries to the Rams secondary right now. He’s worth a look as a WR3 in deeper formats.

WRs vs. the Rams in 2022

Tight End

Dalton Schultz returned from a one-game absence Sunday but was a nonfactor. Despite playing 90% of the snaps, Schultz failed to haul in any of his three targets. Perhaps Schultz needs Prescott under center to return to his top-10 status at the tight end position. He doesn’t feel like a must-start tight end to me, especially against a Rams defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends on the season (3.95).

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Total: 48.5, BAL -3
Pace: BAL: 30.92 sec/snap (30th), CIN: 26.94 sec/snap (9th)

What to watch for: Rashod Bateman hurt his foot against Buffalo last week. He didn’t practice Wednesday.

Ravens

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson is coming off his worst game of the season, throwing for just 144 yards and one touchdown and throwing a pair of interceptions. The conditions were bad in Baltimore, and Jackson faced a tough Buffalo defense. Jackson remains one of the top quarterbacks in the league and looks to bounce back against a Cincinnati defense that has been very good against the pass so far this season, allowing the second-lowest passing touchdown rate in the league through four weeks (1.9%). Still, Jackson is an obvious must-start quarterback every single week.

Running Back

In his second game of the season, J.K. Dobbins touched the ball 17 times, scoring a pair of short-yardage touchdowns. The efficiency wasn’t great, but Dobbins logged 50% of the snaps, a number that should only climb over the next few weeks. Baltimore is actually struggling to run the football right now, but Dobbins should see 14-17 touches and most of the goal-line work. The Bengals rank top-10 in yards per carry allowed so far this season, while they are allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (17.23). Dobbins is a low-end RB2 going forward but could push top-15 status as the season rolls along. (Gus Edwards has been designated to return from PUP, but it seems unlikely he’ll be active in his first game back and likely wouldn’t play enough to matter even if he is.)

Wide Receiver

Rashod Bateman is dealing with a foot injury and after missing Wednesday’s practice, his status is up in the air for Week 5. He is coming off a rough game against the Bills, catching just three passes for 17 yards, while dropping three passes. Bateman has been pretty reliant on the huge plays, as he is only averaging 2.75 receptions per game. However, he is averaging 2.59 yards per route run, the sixth-highest mark in the league, while his 3.6 air yards per route run ranks seventh among all wideouts with at least 20 routes. If he is active, Bateman is a high-upside, potentially low-floor WR3 against the Bengals.

If Bateman is inactive, Devin Duvernay would become the WR1 in Baltimore. Duvernay actually had 51 yards on five targets last week and for the season, he has seen 37.5% of Baltimore’s targets from inside the 10-yard line. He wouldn’t suddenly become a guaranteed top-36 wide receiver if Bateman is ruled out, but Duvernay would become a lot more viable.

Tight End

Mark Andrews is coming off a quiet game, catching just two passes for 15 yards. He still leads all tight ends with a 32% target share and should remain the focal point of this Baltimore passing game, especially if Bateman is unable to play. You are obviously starting him everywhere.

Bengals

Quarterback

After two consecutive underwhelming starts, Joe Burrow has settled in as of late. Over the last two weeks, Burrow has tossed five touchdown passes to zero interceptions, while throwing for 562 yards. It is still maddening to watch head coach Zac Taylor call first down run after first down run in his conservative offense, but hopefully this is a game where the Bengals have to air it out. Just 25.8% of the yardage surrendered by the Ravens this season has come on the ground, the fourth-lowest rate in football, while opposing offenses are sporting a 32.2% rushing play percentage against Baltimore, the second-lowest rate. Burrow obviously destroyed Baltimore last season, scoring 27.6 and 38.1 fantasy points in two meetings. The Ravens secondary was depleted last year and while they are healthier this season, they aren’t playing well, consistently miscommunicating on the back end, resulting in huge plays. With only the Lions allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (24.9), Burrow sets up as a top-seven quarterback for Week 5.

Running Back

Perhaps no running back is seeing more volume than Joe Mixon, who is averaging 24.7 touches per game. His 82% opportunity share ranks fourth among all running backs so far this season and that volume isn’t going anywhere. The efficiency has been rough, as Mixon is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry, while just two of his 82 rushes have gone for 10-plus yards. Mixon isn’t getting to the second level very much behind this offensive line — this Ravens run defense is good, but the volume isn’t going away anytime soon. Mixon remains a low-end RB1, especially considering the touchdown upside is still massive, as only Jamaal Williams has seen more carries from inside the 5-yard line than Mixon (7).

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins obviously need to be in your starting lineup. Higgins has recorded more receiving yards than Chase in each of the last three games, but both should be able to thrive against this struggling Baltimore secondary that is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. The Ravens have also allowed three different wide receivers to post 100 yards against them, with two coming from the same team back in Week 2 (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle). 

Tight End

Hayden Hurst revenge game? Sign me up. All jokes aside, Hurst is involved enough to warrant consideration as a tight end streaming option, as he is fifth at the position in routes run, while averaging just over five targets per game. And if opposing defenses continue to play a ton of Cover-2 against the Ravens, that will benefit Hurst, who operates in the short areas of the field. 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 51, KC -7
Pace: KC: 25.19 sec/snap (2nd), LV: 26.7 sec/snap (7th)

What to watch for: Hunter Renfrow has missed the last two games with a concussion but could make his return this week.

Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes is so good at football that all you can do when you watch him make a jaw-dropping play is laugh, shake your head and move on. Mahomes just torched Tampa Bay’s defense to the tune of 249 yards and three touchdowns and now gets an awful Raiders defense that ranks bottom-seven in fantasy points allowed per pass attempt. Meanwhile, the signal callers to face the Raiders so far this season have finished as the QB5, QB6, QB8 and QB3. The Raiders are coughing up the sixth-highest yards per pass attempt (7.8), while opposing offenses are scoring touchdowns on 77% of red zone trips against this defense, the fourth-highest rate in football. 

Running Back

I truly don’t know how Clyde Edwards-Helaire keeps doing this. He scored two more touchdowns last week, giving him five touchdowns on 54 total touches. We did see him carry the ball 19 times for 92 yards against a strong Tampa Bay run defense, while adding a reception. His 20 touches were his most in a game since Week 14 of the 2020 season, though the Chiefs are still using multiple running backs. CEH played 56% of the snaps, while Isiah Pacheco played 21% and touched the ball 11 times. Jerick McKinnon, meanwhile, played 23% of the snaps and continues to play snaps in the red zone. While I still think you should try to trade Edwards-Helaire, you obviously have to keep starting him, especially against a Raiders defense that is allowing the seventh-most receptions per game to opposing backfields (5.8).

Wide Receivers

The Raiders cannot defend opposing slot wide receivers, making this a really good spot for JuJu Smith-Schuster. Of course, Smith-Schuster has been a bit underwhelming this season, as Kansas City continues to spread the ball around, though he has seen eight targets in three of four games. He is lining up out of the slot around 47% of the time, which makes this an advantageous matchup. Las Vegas has given up three touchdowns to slot wide receivers already this season (Jerry Jeudy, Greg Dortch and DeAndre Carter). I think JuJu scores his first touchdown of the season Monday night.

Outside of Smith-Schuster, I’m not too excited to start any Kansas City wide receiver. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been fine over the last two weeks, recording 48 and 63 yards, but his ceiling just isn’t as high on a weekly basis if he isn’t seeing downfield targets. We did see Skyy Moore’s role increase in Week 4, as he logged a season-high 28% of the snaps, passing Justin Watson on the depth chart. Mecole Hardman, meanwhile, played less than 50% of the snaps. If Moore was dropped in leagues and you have a roster spot available, I’d add him. 

Tight End

Start Travis Kelce. He’s found the end zone in three of four games to start the season, sporting a target share just under 25%. His floor is incredibly high, and he should continue to produce against a Raiders team that is allowing the sixth-most points per drive so far this season (2.27).

Raiders

Quarterback

Derek Carr didn’t play poorly against Denver last week, but it was Las Vegas’ rushing attack that got the job done for the Raiders. It was Carr’s first game of the year without multiple touchdown passes, but he should have to throw quite a bit to keep up with the Chiefs this week, a defense that opposing offenses are already throwing against 70.1% of the time, the highest rate in the league. Kansas City is also allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 80% of red zone trips on the year, the second-worst rate in the league. That bodes well for Carr, who is only completing 38.2% of his red zone passes through four weeks, a bottom-five rate among qualified signal callers. I like Carr as a back-end QB1 in this AFC West showdown.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs was amazing in Week 4, rushing for 144 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 28 carries and adding five receptions for 31 yards. Jacobs played a career-high 89% of the snaps last week, as it appears the Josh McDaniels’ backfield-by-committee appears to be a thing of the past, at least for now. Jacobs now has five receptions in each of the last two games and on the season, his 84% opportunity share is the third-highest rate in football, behind only Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley. If this uptick in passing game usage is here to stay, this is a great matchup for it, as the Chiefs are coughing up the most receptions (10.0), receiving yards (69.3) and targets (12.0) per game to opposing running backs this season. Jacobs has also handled 100% of the Raiders carries from inside the 5-yard line. Suddenly with an outstanding role, Jacobs is a must-start, top-12 running back for Week 5.

Wide Receiver

Continue to start Davante Adams with plenty of confidence. He didn’t find the end zone last week, the first time that has happened this season, but he still reached the 100-yard mark and saw 13 targets. No player in the NFL has seen more red zone targets (13) or targets from inside the 10-yard line (7) than Adams, who is also averaging a gaudy 11.75 targets per game through four weeks. If Hunter Renfrow returns to the lineup, he’ll return to his WR3 status in PPR leagues, though his floor obviously isn’t anywhere near as high as it was a season ago. But if he remains sidelined, you could do worse than Mack Hollins in deep leagues, who has seen a solid 16 targets over the last two games.

Tight End

Darren Waller hasn’t done much over the last two weeks, posting nearly identical stat lines of 3-22-0 and 3-24-0. He has been targeted five times in both of those games. That said, I do think he’s going to start scoring some touchdowns. Waller has had a few bad drops in the red zone, while his five targets from inside the 10-yard line rank sixth in the league, though he’s only hauled in two of those targets. We did mention how often teams are scoring touchdowns once they reach the red zone against the Chiefs, who are also allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (12.48).