NFL Usage Report for Week 5: Key Takeaways from Route Participation

In this week’s fantasy football Usage Report, we’re looking at routes run as a way to predict future fantasy success. We’ve analyzed a few different data points over the past few weeks, and this time around we’re using the routes data to measure how involved certain players are in their respective passing games. 

I ranked the top 10 players at WR, TE and RB based on route participation (how often a player is running a route when their team is dropping back to pass) and gave a brief take on what the data tells us about each player. I also included a few additional data points to highlight how efficient these routes are from player to player.

WR Leaders

Not many surprises atop the leaders in the wide receiver group. Considering a wide receiver’s primary job is to make an impact as a pass catcher, it makes sense to see some of the game’s best receivers atop this list. We see studs who were drafted in the first and second round of drafts like Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams. We already know how involved these guys are in their respective passing games, and seeing them ranked atop the leaderboards in this category should help maintain your confidence in them moving forward.

Of course, there are also a few less studly names we see on this list. Diontae Johnson and DJ Moore have both underwhelmed this year, but it’s clear that they remain the focal point of the underwhelming passing offenses in Pittsburgh and Carolina, respectively. These are both great talents who have been limited by some poor quarterback play, and if we look at the yards per route run in the last column, we can see that the poor offenses they’re tethered to are severely holding them back. If you think Pittsburgh’s transition to Kenny Pickett is going to provide their passing game with a boost, now could be a good time to buy low on Johnson.

Next up we see a pair of No. 2 receivers in Adam Thielen and DeVonta Smith. It was a bit surprising to see Smith crack this list while A.J. Brown didn’t. It goes to show that Smith is a key cog in the Eagles offense even if Brown is the one getting all the buzz. Buying into the Eagles offense in general feels like it’ll be a wise move this year, and Smith may be one of the cheapest fantasy-relevant targets to acquire from that team. Thielen on the other hand is on this list alongside his team’s No. 1 receiver. He’s quietly been posting solid numbers in his age-32 season, and he appears locked into a consistent role in this Minnesota offense. Acquiring Thielen wouldn’t be the sexiest move of all time, but it appears that he continues to have a safe floor as someone who doesn’t leave the field often in a pass-friendly offense.

Finally we come to arguably the biggest surprise on this list – Christian Kirk. After signing a hefty contract this offseason, we should have seen Kirk’s involvement in the offense coming, but he was largely overlooked during draft season. Now that we have the data to back it up, we can clearly see that Kirk is Trevor Lawrence’s No. 1 option in a much-improved Jacksonville offense. The opportunity to buy Kirk at a reasonable price may have passed, but after a down week in Week 4, there’s a chance he’s still available for a reasonable price. If he is, buy with confidence.

TE Leaders

In my opinion, tight end is the No. 1 position where we can gain insight from routes-run data. Unlike receivers, the role a tight end plays in his team’s passing game can be much more volatile. Due to their ability to either pass block or run a route on any given drop back (or be subbed off the field entirely), being able to measure how often they’re available to score fantasy points on any given pass play is huge. Some players (looking at you, George Kittle) are fantastic real-life tight ends, but their impressive blocking ability ultimately hurts their fantasy ceiling because they’re not always put in a position to score points on passing plays. 

The players who are running routes on passing plays are obviously the most valuable for fantasy football, and it’s no surprise to see both Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce – the first and second tight ends drafted in fantasy leagues this year – crack our top 10. Kelce and Andrews possess everything you’d want from a fantasy tight end. They’re talented, always on the field, and tethered to explosive offenses. Acquiring either of these two will likely cost you an arm and a leg, so maybe the biggest takeaway here is not to overlook them again in your drafts next year.

The next tier of guys we can bunch together is Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz. All of these guys were drafted in the mid-to-late rounds of fantasy drafts this year, and their involvement in their respective passing games thus far is likely a sign of optimism moving forward. Anyone who spent an early pick on Waller is likely fairly disappointed with their return on investment thus far, but it’s likely too early to press the panic button on him as he looks like he’ll continue to be involved in Vegas’ passing game. Meanwhile Hockenson, Goedert and Ertz all rank in the top six in fantasy points at the position, and the only one here you may want to consider moving off of is Ertz. He’s had a high target share through four weeks and has been fortunate enough to find the end zone twice already. The return of DeAndre Hopkins is looming though, and if someone in your league is willing to overlook that part of the equation, swapping Ertz for one of the names in our next tier plus a little something extra could provide value over the latter portion of the season.

To round out the tight end tier, we find a handful of guys who were either drafted very late or left on the waiver wire. We’ve seen the blowup game from David Njoku already, and his routes run data indicates his role in the Browns passing attack is here to stay. If the return of Deshaun Watson provides this passing offense with a boost, Njoku possesses borderline league-winning upside. Tyler Higbee on the other hand appears to be getting all the targets many thought would go to Allen Robinson. Higbee’s not an explosive player, but he’s at least a high-floor option in a Rams offense that wants to pass the football often. Pat Freiermuth is sort of like Higbee-light in the sense that he has a solid role on his offense, but the passing game in Pittsburgh is less exciting, and there are more mouths to feed above him in the pecking order. Finally, we come to Evan Engram, who hasn’t accomplished much this year. He’s currently 22nd in points scored at the position (0.5 PPR), but the arrow appears to be pointing up in Jacksonville. There’s no need to spend much to acquire Engram, but he’s a guy worth monitoring due to his role in Jacksonville’s passing attack. 

RB Leaders

Finally we come to the running back position where we see yet another wide range of players listed. Much like with tight ends, a running back’s role in the passing game is much more variable due to certain teams utilizing committee approaches or asking their backs to block more often. The one thing that is stable though is the same as the other two positions – the guys running routes on passing downs are best equipped to accumulate fantasy points. 

Where this list is more similar to the receiver position is that we find the top 10 rankings littered with players who were drafted high in fantasy drafts. Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey were the first two backs off the board during draft season, and it should come as no surprise to see them ranked Nos. 1 and 2 in this list. Then we see guys like Leonard Fournette, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon and Saquon Barkley who were drafted in the earlier rounds with the hopes of seeing this type of involvement in the passing game. Moving forward, you should feel good about the roles each of these guys possess.

A few of the more surprising names on this list are two backs we thought were destined to be stuck in gross committee situations. Both Devin Singletary and Josh Jacobs were drafted with hesitation this offseason, but they’ve both provided fantasy managers with positive results this year. Both players had major questions about what their roles would be on passing downs (if they would even have one at all) and seeing that they’re both running routes on more than half of their team’s respective snaps indicate their early fantasy success could be here to stay.

Finally, we round out the running back position by looking at two very surprising names – Darrell Henderson and Rex Burkhead. Henderson was largely viewed as the No. 2 back in Los Angeles this year, but he’s been the trusted back on passing downs this year over Cam Akers. It looks like the usage in that backfield is going to ebb and flow this year, but Henderson’s participation numbers may be a bit misleading as he’s been horribly inefficient (just 0.4 yards per route). It feels like his name being on this list is likely fool’s gold. Burkhead on the other hand has been somewhat efficient with his routes, but the Texans offense as a whole hasn’t inspired much hope. Plus, it seems the arrow is pointing up for Dameon Pierce, and as his role continues to grow it’ll come at the expense of Burkhead who’s already hanging onto fantasy relevancy by a thread.