Pick 6 Core Plays & Strategy for the 2025 Masters

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If you haven’t tried Pick 6 yet, I highly recommend it. It’s fun and there’s a strong edge, what more can you ask for? In fact, the edge is probably larger this week than any other. 

The game is fully peer to peer, like traditional DraftKings. So the influx of casual players for the Masters is great for those of us who know the game that we’re playing. And on Pick 6, that game is aiming for high payouts. We get high payouts when we go 6/6 and the field struggles to get 6/6. Which means we want to first identify what the field is going to do, then leverage the field with picks we like.

Fortunately for us, the PGA market is one of the easiest to do this in, as people routinely take the wrong side of picks. Here are the first four guys listed in the finish position category:

Now, let’s look at our simulations to see where we have each of these guys.

• Scottie Scheffler: 37.3% chance for a top five
• Rory McIlroy: 39.8% chance for a top 10
• Collin Morikawa: 43.8% chance for a Top 10, 64.0% chance for a top 20
• Jon Rahm: 30.8% chance for a Top 10, 48.8% chance for a top 20

Other than Collin Morikawa, we have a strong lean toward the “Worse” side on all of these guys, but we know the field, which only wants to root for players, will have a severe lean toward the “Better” sides. So if we stack the “Worse” side and go 6/6, we’re doing so in a way that causes the field to lose at a high clip, leading to potentially great payouts.

But if you’re hesitant to root against this group of guys, that’s fair. I love Rory’s chances to win and hope he wins, so it’s hard to root for him to finish outside of the top seven. Consequently, let’s see if we can find some higher probability “Worse” picks.

Pick 6 Core Plays for the Masters

Ludvig Aberg finish position worse than 18.5

We have Ludvig Aberg with a 24.1% chance for a top 20. As good as he was in his debut last year, he just hasn’t been great this year (especially since his win). Plus, Augusta diminishes the importance of driving while accentuating short game play. The only thing Aberg has done well this year is drive the ball and his Achilles heel in Majors, like last year’s U.S. Open, has been his subpar short game. We’ve been using this pick pretty much every time he tees it up and it’s only backfired once so far this year.

Matt Fitzpatrick finish position worse than 39.5

We have Matt Fitzpatrick with a 25.3% chance of a top-40 finish. He’s just…. Not that good? His irons are atrocious right now and his once-dependable short game has also failed him this year. Even his TGL team benched him! He’s finished in the top 40 only twice this year, once at The Sentry and once in the API. In both cases, he rode a hot putter to a top 30 but still couldn’t crack the top 20. He’s just not the same guy that won a U.S. Open, but he’s still somewhat being priced as such. 

Final Thoughts

I recognize that rooting against players isn’t as fun as rooting for them. But I have two counter-arguments. First, it’s a lot of fun when the money hits your account afterwards! And second of all, it’s not like selecting a “Lower” on a player’s receiving yards in the NFL where nothing good can ever happen. There are still outcomes you can root for, instead of just outcomes you have to root against. For example, Puka Nacua will never catch a pass for -30 yards. But Matt Fitzpatrick can hit it into the creek on 12 and make a triple bogey. So toss that bias out the window, take the “Worse” sides, and let’s make some money on Pick 6 this week.

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