(Check out FTN’s full NBA playoff preview!)

The New York Knicks face the Detroit Pistons in what should be a great series in the first round of 2025 NBA playoffs.

One of the teams was expected to be in this spot while the other team wildly exceeded expectations. After making big trades to acquire Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, the New York Knicks were among the favorites to win the championship before the season started. Despite struggling with injuries, they finished as the third seed in the Eastern Conference and are comfortably favored to make the second round.

The Detroit Pistons had the worst record in the league last season and made it all the way up to sixth in the East, just a few games behind the Knicks. The front office surrounded exciting young players with veterans who fit well and can help guide the less experienced guys on the team. This created an environment that has allowed Cade Cunningham to start to realize his potential as a former No. 1 draft pick.

This series will be an interesting dichotomy of a veteran team with big expectations against a younger team that is playing with little to lose after a successful season. In this series preview, we’ll break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses, analyze how they match up, and use FTN’s model, which simulates every series 10,000 times, to project the most likely outcomes and best bets.

New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons Series Odds

Before we dive into the matchup breakdown, here’s a look at the current series odds for Knicks vs. Pistons at DraftKings Sportsbook:

The third-seeded Knicks are the current betting favorites at -425 at DraftKings.

After simulating the series 10,000 times, FTN’s model gives the Knicks a 79.0% chance to win, compared to 21.0% for the Pistons. We agree with the market that Knicks should be big favorites although closer to -375 than -425.

Based on those projections, we don’t want to lay -425 with the Knicks, but there’s also no value in betting the Pistons at only +330. Luckily, there are more markets for us to attack, which I’ll break down later in this preview.

Knicks vs. Pistons: Regular Season Matchup Results

The Knicks faced the Pistons four times this season, with the Pistons winning three of those four.

Key Trends from the Season Series:

• The Pistons Dominated in New York: The Pistons won both games in Madison Square Garden despite the Knicks having their best players on the floor.
• Make Your Threes, Win the Game: The winner of all four matchups shot better from beyond the arc than their opponent.
• The Knicks Kept the Pistons from Shooting Free Throws: The Pistons averaged over 22 free throw attempts per game, but didn’t shoot more than 20 in any game against the Knicks

Major Takeaways:

• The Pistons can win New York. The Knicks have one of the best homecourts in the league and can be a tough place to play. The Pistons have already shown they can win in Madison Square Garden.
• Both are bottom 10 in the league in three-point attempts per game. If either can find a way to shoot more threes and, more importantly, make more threes will have a big advantage.
• Officiating can be different in the playoffs and that often means less foul calls and therefore less free throws. The Pistons have already been able to beat the Knicks without their normal advantage in that area, so the adjustment to postseason officials might not be too jarring.

Knicks vs. Pistons: Matchup Breakdown & Statistical Comparison

Pace & Play Style

The Knicks are one of the slowest teams in the league. Can they slow down the Pistons, or will Detroit get New York to run with them?

Offensive & Defensive Ratings

Edge: New York, the Knicks have been the better team for the whole of the season, but things are much closer if we filter on games after the All-Star break. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues or if New York finds their form with a week of rest and everyone healthy.

Shooting & Efficiency

Edge: Push, the shooting splits are very close in this matchup. The Knicks have slightly better make rates, but the Pistons have an advantage in attempted free throws.

Rebounding, Turnovers & Possession Metrics

Edge: New York, the Knicks turnover rate is significantly lower and will be a big benefit to them as things tighten up in the playoffs.

Knicks vs. Pistons: Key Player Matchups

Basketball is a team sport, but these individual player matchups could decide who moves forward in this matchup. 

Jalen Brunson vs. Cade Cunningham

These are not only the best players on each team, but they are also the ballhandlers responsible for scoring points and creating opportunities for others to score. Whichever player can keep turnovers down while being able to generate points late in games when things are ugly will win their respective team the game.

Jalen Brunson – New York Knicks

• Games Played: 65
• Stats: 26.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 7.3 APG
• Shooting Splits: 48.8% FG, 38.3% 3PT, 82.1% FT
• Advanced: 55.1% eFG, 21.6 PER, 8.3 Win Shares

Jalen Brunson is far and away the best guard on New York’s roster. He is the best ballhandler and the best at creating space and chances for his teammates. Using FTN’s NBA Splits Tool, we see the offensive rating for the Knicks drops by three in games he doesn’t play and by more than seven when he’s off the court in games he does play. Brunson is the most important player to the success of the Knicks.

The key for Jalen Brunson: Staying healthy and saving his very best stuff for the end of games. The Knicks can’t win without Brunson and especially need him in a series that I expect to feature several close scores at the end of games.

Cade Cunningham – Detroit Pistons

• Games Played: 70
• Stats: 26.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 9.1 APG
• Shooting Splits: 44.6% FG, 33.9% 3PT, 84.6% FT
• Advanced: 52.1% eFG, 20.6 PER, 5.9 Win Shares

Cade Cunningham took a big step forward this season, going from struggling former No. 1 pick to becoming one of the best players in the NBA. All his stats, traditional and advanced, got much better and a large part of the Pistons’ success this season. If Cade can keep up that level, and maybe even find a higher one, he could be the best player in this series.

The key for Cade Cunningham: Staying calm in big moments. This is Cunningham’s first postseason series, and starting in front of the raucous New York crowd could cause him to get nervous and make mistakes. If he can keep his cool, Cunningham will have chances to do big things in big moments.

Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Jalen Duren

No matter how the game of basketball changes, it will always be about what the biggest guys on the floor can do. Towns and Duren start at center for these teams and their ability to score and protect the rim will define the success or failure of their squads.

Karl-Anthony Towns – New York Knicks

• Games Played: 72
• Stats: 24.4 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 3.1 APG
• Shooting Splits: 52.6% FG, 42.0% 3PT, 82.9% FT
• Advanced: 58.4% eFG, 23.4 PER, 10.1 Win Shares

Towns first season in New York has been great for him and the Knicks on the offensive end of the court. Combined with Brunson, Towns is a key part of the engine that drives a Knicks’ offense that is one of the very best in the league. He’s struggled defensively, but we’ve seen him raise his level in big moments and New York has learned how to scheme around him.

The key for Karl-Anthony Towns: Not being a negative on the defensive end of the floor. At times, Towns is arguably the worst defensive starting center in the NBA. He misses rotations and fails to protect the rim. At other times, he can be a good defender, even slowing down Nikola Jokic. Towns needs to make sure he plays his very best defense if the Knicks are going to make a deep playoff run.

Jalen Duren – Detroit Pistons

• Games Played: 78
• Stats: 11.8 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.7 APG
• Shooting Splits: 69.2% FG, 0.0% 3PT, 66.9% FT
• Advanced: 69.2% eFG, 21.4 PER, 9.2 Win Shares

Jalen Duren was drafted to play defense and finish in pick and roll plays with Cade Cunningham, and that’s what he’s been able to do. Duren is a good rim protector and able to guard players out on the perimeter as well. His offensive game is limited, but efficient which combined with defense leads to an impressive amount of win shares.

The key for Jalen Duren: Avoiding fouls and turnovers. He’s been good about this all season and has performed well against the Knicks, but the playoffs are different, especially the first time. If Duren feels the pressure and starts to foul too much or be too risky with the basketball, he’ll hurt Detroit’s chances greatly.

Series Prediction: Knicks vs. Pistons

The sportsbooks agree with FTN and make the Knicks comfortable favorites to win this series. New York winning is in five or six games is the most likely scenario.

FTN Model Prediction: Knicks

According to FTN’s model, the Knicks are strong favorites to win this series and advance.

Noops’ Pick: Knicks in 7

I agree with the model that the Knicks should be favored, but I don’t agree with them being favored by this much. The Pistons have already shown us they can beat Knicks, and beat them in New York. I think Game 1 in New York will be tough for a young Detroit team, but I think they’ll settle down as the game goes on and be ready to play well in Game 2 or Game 5. We also have to consider the chances that some of the Knicks get injured. Tom Thibodeau puts a lot of miles on his players. Of the nine players who played the most minutes, three are Knicks. We saw New York breakdown last year and it could happen again. Even if they are healthy, I think the Pistons will win at least two games in this series and could even win four.

Best Bets for Knicks vs. Pistons

I’m looking for ways to the back the Pistons in this series. Not only with a bet on them to win the series, but also in a few other markets where we can take advantage of understanding the flow of the series.

Best Bet 1: Pistons to Win the Series

(+330, DraftKings Sportsbook)

I’m going against our model a little bit here and taking the underdog, although FTN would price them at +376. My own model has this series priced at Knicks -260, Pistons +260. Detroit won the regular season series, including going 2-0 in New York, and their only loss was back in November. The Pistons have a better net rating than the Knicks since the All-Star break and have been healthier. Maybe Cade Cunningham isn’t ready for this moment in his first ever postseason, but I think there’s value in backing the team that has been better for the last few months and in this matchup.

Best Bet 2: Knicks to Win Game 1, Pistons to Win the Series

(+650, DraftKings Sportsbook)

As I’ve mentioned a few times already, for most of the Pistons this will be their first time in the pressure cooker that is the NBA Playoffs. The Knicks are big favorites in Game 1, and I think the Pistons will struggle under the big lights early. As the series goes on, the Pistons should get more comfortable, the Knicks have more chances of losing a player to injury, and Detroit will find ways to win games. Maybe the Pistons shock us all by winning Game 1, but I don’t see it. This price will be better than what’s available after they lose Game 1 and the Pistons will still be very live to win the series even if they falter at first.

Final Thoughts on Knicks vs. Pistons

Maybe this series is the comfortable win for the Knicks the market and our model expect, but I’m not in agreement with that. We’ve seen Tom Thibodeau teams fail in the postseason before, and not only because of injuries. New York should be fresh with a week off, but that rest will wear away quickly and almost entirely by the time we get to Detroit for Game 3 and Game 4. Cade Cunningham has risen to the occasion in games this regular season and even against the Knicks. Maybe, like the Orlando Magic last year, this is the year the Detroit Pistons learn how the playoffs feel and lose, but the Pistons should be confident against a Knicks team they beat three times this season. A young, talented team with confidence can be a dangerous thing if the ball starts to bounce their way.