(Check out FTN’s full NBA playoff preview!)

The Denver Nuggets face the Los Angeles Clippers in what should be one of the most interesting first round series of the 2025 NBA Playoffs.

The Nuggets have had a rough ending to their season. Coach Michael Malone was fired with just a week left in the season, and Jamal Murray has been struggling with a hamstring injury that has bothered him his entire career. It feels like much more than two years ago when this team won the title. Nikola Jokić just finished arguably the best season of his career, but he probably needs to find an even higher level if the Nuggets are going to win another championship.

The Clippers have come on strong to finish the season. Kawhi Leonard was slowly worked into the lineup throughout the year and is playing the best basketball he has in years, showing flashes of the guy that carried the Toronto Raptors to a title. James Harden and Norman Powell have carried the offense, while Ivica Zubac anchors one of the best defenses in the league. With Ty Lue at the helm, the Clippers have just about everything a team could want as long as no one gets hurt.

It will be interesting to see how far Jokić can carry the Nuggets or to see if the Clippers can threaten the Oklahoma City Thunder in the next round. In this series preview, we’ll break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses, analyze how they match up, and use FTN’s model, which simulates every series 10,000 times, to project the most likely outcomes and best bets.

Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers Series Odds

Before we dive into the matchup breakdown, here’s a look at the current series odds for Nuggets vs. Clippers at DraftKings Sportsbook:

The fourth-seeded Nuggets are the current betting favorites at -145 at DraftKings. This opened as high as -190 and has been bet all the way down over the last day.

After simulating the series 10,000 times, FTN’s model gives the Nuggets a 47.1% chance to win, compared to 53.2% for the Clippers. We disagree with the market and would actually make the Clippers the favorite in this series at a price of -114 with the Nuggets priced at +114.

Based on those projections and even after all the market movement, there’s still value in betting the Clippers to win the series.

Nuggets vs. Clippers: Regular Season Matchup Results

The Nuggets faced the Clippers four times this season, with each team winning their two home games.

Key Trends from the Season Series:

• Homecourt Matters: Home teams were 3-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in this series.
• It’s Been a While Since They’ve Played: Their last matchup was over three months ago. A lot has changed since then.
• Make Your Shots, Win the Game: In three games, the winner shot markedly better than their opponent. The only exception was when the Clippers shot much better from three, but worse overall in their win.

Major Takeaways:

• Make sure you adjust appropriately for homecourt. These teams might have the two best homecourt advantages. Denver’s altitude and crowd create a rough environment for visitors. Los Angeles’ stadium was specifically designed to enhance the impact of the home fans making the road team uncomfortable.
• Head-to-head matchups are always good to reference, but in this case, they are not as relevant as other series. Both teams have changed greatly since they last faced one another over three months ago.
• Shooting success is dictated by an offense’s ability to create space and execute and the defense’s ability to stay with the ball and challenge shots. Whichever team finds the best matchups on the court will control the series.

Nuggets vs. Clippers: Matchup Breakdown & Statistical Comparison

Pace & Play Style

The Clippers are one of the slowest teams in the league. Can they slow down the Nuggets, or will Denver get Los Angeles to run with them? Pay attention to see which team is dictating pace throughout games in this series.

Offensive & Defensive Ratings

Edge: Los Angeles. The Clippers have a much better defense while the Nuggets have a much better offense, but Los Angeles’ offense is at least league average while Denver’s defense is closer to the bottom. Put everything together and the Clippers have the better net rating. Also, defense tends to be more reliable than offense in the playoffs, which helps the Clippers even more.

Shooting & Efficiency

Edge: Denver. No surprise here, the team with the much better offense shoots the ball much better. We’ll see if the Nuggets can remain so efficient because they’ll need to be to win.

Rebounding, Turnovers & Possession Metrics

Edge: Denver. The Nuggets turnover rate is lower, and their offensive rebounding rate is higher, which means they should benefit from a few extra possessions each game.

Key Player Matchups

Basketball is a team sport, but these individual player matchups could decide who moves forward in this matchup. 

Nikola Jokić vs. Ivica Zubac

Nikola Jokić is arguably the best player in the world and the key to Denver’s success. His ability to make the right pass and take the right shot is everything for the Nuggets. The man trying to stop him is one of the best defensive centers in the NBA, Ivica Zubac. He’s done as well as anyone against Jokić this season. Zubac can make a huge difference in this series if he can just keep Jokić from doing anything historically great.

Nikola Jokić – Denver Nuggets

• Games Played: 70
• Stats: 29.6 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 7.2 APG
• Shooting Splits: 57.6% FG, 41.7% 3PT, 80.0% FT
• Advanced: 62.7% eFG, 32.0 PER, 16.4 Win Shares

Nikola Jokić is arguably the best player in NBA history with one, or even two, championship titles. For the last few seasons, he has redefined what it means to be excellent on the court. He leads the league in win shares, BPM, and value above replacement. He’s top three in points per game, assists per game, rebounds per game, and steals per game while being one of the best three-point shooters. He might not be the MVP this season, but he has been three times already and is clearly the MVP of the Nuggets.

The key for Nikola Jokić: Keeping enough in the tank to dominate games late. Jokić has already put in a yeoman’s effort to drag Denver this far. If he wants to keep his season going, he’s going to have to find ways to save energy early in games so that he can win close games late.

Ivica Zubac – Los Angeles Clippers

• Games Played: 80
• Stats: 16.8 PPG, 12.6 RPG, 2.7 APG
• Shooting Splits: 62.8% FG, 0.0% 3PT, 66.1% FT
• Advanced: 62.8% eFG, 22.3 PER, 11.7 Win Shares

Ivica Zubac’s ninth season has been his best. He is averaging the most points, rebounds, and assists he ever has while generating more win shares and value above replacement in his career. He’s a great defender who can protect the rim without getting into foul trouble and few players both big enough and quick enough to guard Jokić. Of course, no one can really stop Jokić, but Zubac can at least slow him down so the Clippers can win the game in other ways.

The key for Ivica Zubac: Avoid fouling out of games. He is the only player the Clippers have who has a prayer of defending Nikola Jokić. Zubac has avoided foul trouble all year and he must continue to do that if the Clippers are to win this series.

Jamal Murray vs. James Harden

Both of these guys have had tumultuous postseasons in their careers. Jamal Murray was fantastic in the playoffs two years ago but has either gotten injured or played poorly in every other year. Much has been written about how James Harden impact and metrics fall off a cliff once the calendar turns to April. They are the primary ball handlers for their teams and paramount to their chances of victory. If either can shake the playoff monkey off their back, their teams will have a much better chance of advancing to round two.

Jamal Murray – Denver Nuggets

• Games Played: 67
• Stats: 21.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 6.0 APG
• Shooting Splits: 47.4% FG, 39.3% 3PT, 88.6% FT
• Advanced: 54.3% eFG, 17.8 PER, 6.2 Win Shares

When Murray has been healthy, he’s been pretty good this season. He’s shown flashes of the guy we saw in the NBA Finals two seasons ago. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been healthy often and has missed the last few weeks with the same hamstring injury that has hampered him throughout his career. Murray running the pick and roll with Jokić is still one of the very best plays in the NBA. Denver will go far if they can run it every game.

The key for Jamal Murray: Not getting injured. Murray has to play if the Nuggets are going to win. The postseason offers more rest with at least one, and often more, day off between games. Murray needs to make good use of that time rehabbing and preparing himself for game action.

James Harden – Los Angeles Clippers

• Games Played: 79
• Stats: 22.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 8.7 APG
• Shooting Splits: 41.0% FG, 35.2% 3PT, 87.4% FT
• Advanced: 50.1% eFG, 20.0 PER, 8.3 Win Shares

James Harden has found a good home in Los Angeles. He has free reign to lead the offense and soak up as much usage as he wants, and it’s led a fairly uninspiring group to score enough points to win a lot of games. The Clippers are a defensive team, but they still need to score, and Harden’s talents allow that to happen despite a dearth of offensive talent for the most part.

The key for James Harden: Maintain the high level of effort we’ve seen from all year. We’ve seen Harden struggle in the playoffs throughout his career. Harden set records for usage and minutes played during the regular season which got him to the postseason but sapped his energy for those games. He’s a much lighter load to lift this season and should be as fresh as he’s been in years for the playoffs. He needs to use that energy and fight hard throughout every game.

Series Prediction: Nuggets vs. Clippers

Our model at FTN disagrees with the sportsbooks. We make the Clippers small favorites instead of small underdogs like we see in the market.

FTN Model Prediction: Clippers

According to FTN’s model, the Clippers are short favorites to win this series and advance.

Noops’ Pick: Clippers in 6

In general, the best player wins the playoff series, and there is almost no player better than Nikola Jokić Unfortunately for him, if Jamal Murray can’t get close to 100%, the Clippers might have the second, third and probably fourth best players in this series. Denver has asked a lot of their star throughout the season, and we saw Jokić look tired and struggle in a similar situation last season. The recent firing of the coach also presents a whole set of problems in terms of planning and executing strategy. Ty Lue is arguably the best coach in the league, and that becomes even more important in the postseason. Of course, the Clippers have their own concerns in Kawhi Leonard, who has a history of getting injured late in the season and James Harden, who has a history of playing poorly late in the season. I don’t expect either to be a big problem in the first round. Perhaps in later rounds, these issues will manifest, but I think they’ll be steady in the short term. It’s going to be a close series with several close games, but Jokić can only do so much, and the Clippers have more options and are in better form. Los Angeles closes it out at home in Game 6.

Best Bets for Nuggets vs. Clippers

I’m betting on the Clippers in this series and I think there are two good options for us to do that.

Best Bet 1: Clippers to Win the Series

(+120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Our model at FTN and I are in lockstep here — the market is wrong in making the Denver Nuggets favorites. The Clippers are healthier, have a big edge in coaching and have been playing better over the last two months. Again, maybe Nikola Jokić has more left in the tank than I think and drags the Nuggets to the next round. That could certainly happen, but I think it’s a more than optimistic view of Denver’s chances even if Jamal Murray is close to his best for the entire series. The Clippers might be the second-best team in the Western Conference, and only the Oklahoma City Thunder are clearly better than them. Give me Los Angeles at plus money to win this series.

Best Bet 2: Clippers -1.5 Games Series Spread

(+180, DraftKings Sportsbook)

One of my favorite angles every postseason is to bet teams that host Game 6 (aka the road team in the series) to win the series by more than 1.5 games. This is a bet that the Clippers win the series in Game 6 or sooner. Not that the Clippers can’t beat the Nuggets in Denver in Game 7, but it will be difficult, and Los Angeles will the underdog barring injury issues. Teams tend to close out series at home and I don’t think books make the proper adjustments for that in this market. Give me the Clippers to win the series at home in Game 6 or sooner.

Final Thoughts on Nuggets vs. Clippers

This series should be competitive, but I see a wide range of outcomes ranging from “depressing blowout of one team because of a devastating injury” to “wow, how is any other series going to be as good as this one?” Jamal Murray’s status is Denver’s biggest concern. I can’t see how the win four games in this series without him to run pick and roll with Jokić and score off the ball. Everything seems to be in place for the Clippers, but we’ve seen this movie before, and it has generally had a bad ending. If Murray can’t play or Kawhi somehow gets hurt, we lose a lot of juice in this series, but if everyone can be available to play, we might see six or seven games decided by just a few baskets. Hopefully that’s what we get, and the Clippers survive victorious.