First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
NFL snap counts are a critical part of assessing a player’s weekly potential. As we enter Week 12 of the NFL season, here is a look at FTN Fantasy’s NFL snap counts for the key fantasy football players from each Week 11 matchup.
Fantasy Football Snap Counts: Week 11
Eagles 26, Commanders 18
RB: Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) 53%; Austin Ekeler (WAS) 52%; Saquon Barkley (PHI) 82%
WR: Terry McLaurin (WAS) 71%; Noah Brown (WAS) 77%; Olamide Zaccheaus (WAS) 42%; Luke McCaffrey (WAS) 30%; A.J. Brown (PHI) 97%; DeVonta Smith (PHI) 89%; Jahan Dotson (PHI) 41%
TE: Zach Ertz (WAS) 80%; Ben Sinnott (WAS) 9%; Dallas Goedert (PHI) 89%; Grant Calcaterra (PHI) 52%
Brian Robinson Jr. stepped back into his normal snap share after missing two games with a hamstring injury. Olamide Zaccheaus saw an increase in opportunities, which came at the expense of Noah Brown’s ineffectiveness. Washington continues to rely on veteran Zach Ertz, while rookie Ben Sinnott’s snap share has decreased. For Philadelphia, Saquon Barkley’s usage and production have him as the betting favorite (+105) for Offensive Player of the Year. DeVonta Smith is getting the snaps, but just not producing.
Packers 20, Bears 19
RB: Josh Jacobs (GB) 80%; Chris Brooks (GB) 22%; D’Andre Swift (CHI) 57%; Roschon Johnson (42%)
WR: Romeo Doubs (GB) 78%; Christian Watson (GB) 67%; Jayden Reed (GB) 57%; Dontayvion Wicks (GB) 35%; DJ Moore (CHI) 94%; Keenan Allen (CHI) 92%; Rome Odunze (CHI) 82%
TE: Tucker Kraft (GB) 93%; Cole Kmet (CHI) 97%
The decreasing snap share difference between D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson is noteworthy after Thomas Brown’s first game as new offensive coordinator. Josh Jacobs’ snap share crested 80% for the first time all season. Christopher Brooks has usurped Emanuel Wilson as the current RB2, with MarShawn Lloyd (appendectomy) just activated. Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson remain the clear top Green Bay wideouts, with Dontayvion Wicks a distant fourth. Both Tucker Kraft and Cole Kmet have one of the highest snap shares at the position, so production should follow in future weeks.
Lions 52, Jaguars 6
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) 42%; David Montgomery (DET) 39%; Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX) 75%; D’Ernest Johnson (JAX) 27%
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 80%; Tim Patrick (DET) 71%; Jameson Williams (DET) 65%; Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) 94%; Parker Washington (JAX) 58%; Devin Duvernay (JAX) 29%
TE: Brock Wright (DET) 82%; Evan Engram (JAX) 75%; Brenton Strange (JAX) 50%
Hard to draw any conclusions based on the Lions’ dominant performance. Travis Etienne Jr. should still see the majority of touches (especially in the passing game) even when Tank Bigsby returns. With Gabe Davis now out for the season, look for Parker Washington to see a bump in opportunity. Evan Engram has a chance to make a massive impact during the fantasy football playoffs.
Vikings 23, Titans 13
RB: Aaron Jones (MIN) 53%; Cam Akers (MIN) 37%; Tony Pollard (TEN) 63%; Tyjae Spears (TEN) 44%
WR: Justin Jefferson (MIN) 99%; Jordan Addison (MIN) 60%; Jalen Nailor (MIN) 44%; Calvin Ridley (TEN) 88%; Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) 85%; Tyler Boyd (TEN) 59%
TE: Josh Oliver (MIN) 56%; T.J. Hockenson (MIN) 48%; Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) 71%; Nick Vannett (TEN) 61%
Aaron Jones was clearly held back as he played through a rib injury suffered in Week 10. His health is critical to the Vikings’ playoff push, which resulted in a Cam Akers snap increase. Minnesota is also being careful with tight end T.J. Hockenson, who was under a 50% snap share for the third-straight week since returning from injury. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s production is volatile, but he is the clear WR2 for the Titans.
Dolphins 34, Raiders 19
RB: De’Von Achane (MIA) 62%; Jaylen Wright (MIA) 26%; Raheem Mostert (MIA) 15%; Zamir White (LV) 34%; Ameer Abdullah (LV) 34%; Alexander Mattison (LV) 31%
WR: Jaylen Waddle (MIA) 78%; Tyreek Hill (MIA) 76%; Malik Washington (MIA) 40%; Tre Tucker (LV) 89%; Jakobi Meyers (LV) 88%; DJ Turner (LV) 43%
TE: Jonnu Smith (MIA) 81%; Julian Hill (MIA) 55%; Brock Bowers (LV) 95%
Raheem Mostert has fallen behind Jaylen Wright, seeing fewer snaps for the second consecutive week. Jaylen Waddle’s lack of production is frustrating, but the snaps remain strong. Jonnu Smith’s role in this offense has been secure for the past seven weeks, operating as the overall TE6 in PPR formats during that stretch. The Raiders backfield is a mess for fantasy purposes. Can we really trust Ameer Abdullah with both Zamir White (quad) and Alexander Mattison (ankle) limited?
Rams 28, Patriots 22
RB: Kyren Williams (LAR) 81%; Blake Corum (LAR) 19%; Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) 76%
WR: Puka Nacua (LAR) 75%; Demarcus Robinson (LAR) 75%; Cooper Kupp (LAR) 71%; Kayshon Boutte (NE) 96%; DeMario Douglas (NE) 57%; Kendrick Bourne (NE) 47%; Ja’Lynn Polk (NE) 41%
TE: Davis Allen (LAR) 65%, Colby Parkinson (LAR) 37%; Hunter Henry (NE) 88%
It’s worth noting the increase in Blake Corum’s usage as we enter the final third of the season. Kayshon Boutte continues to hold the highest snap share among New England wideouts, but Kendrick Bourne should return to his normal 70% snap share range after a productive Week 11. Last year’s fifth-round pick, Davis Allen, has been the TE1 for the Rams the past three weeks.
Saints 35, Browns 14
RB: Alvin Kamara (NO) 73%; Jerome Ford (CLE) 56%; Nick Chubb (CLE) 30%
WR: Kevin Austin Jr. (NO) 68%; Marquez Valdes-Scantling (NO) 65%; Cedrick Wilson Jr. (NO) 17%; Cedric Tillman (CLE) 96%; Jerry Jeudy (CLE) 85%; Elijah Moore (CLE) 73%
TE: Foster Moreau (NO) 85%; Juwan Johnson (NO) 57%; Taysom Hill (NO) 55%; David Njoku (CLE) 86%
If Cleveland continues to operate in negative gamescripts, Nick Chubb’s production will be limited. He has seen a 36% or lower snap share in three of his four games since returning from injury. Jerry Jeudy was the Browns most productive receiver, but still trailed Cedric Tillman in snap share. Taysom Hill’s performance was even more spectacular when you consider his 55% snap share, which was still a four-week high. Kevin Austin Jr. is a 2022 UDFA from Notre Dame who was elevated from the practice squad for Week 11. His high snap share was a result of gamescript.
Colts 28, Jets, 27
RB: Jonathan Taylor (IND) 90%; Breece Hall (NYJ) 84%; Braelon Allen (NYJ) 18%
WR: Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) 87%; Alec Pierce (IND) 80%; Josh Downs (IND) 69%; Adonai Mitchell (IND) 17%; Davante Adams (NYJ) 94%; Garrett Wilson (NYJ) 100%; Xavier Gipson (NYJ) 53%
TE: Kylan Granson (IND) 46%; Mo Alie-Cox (IND) 40%; Drew Ogletree (IND) 36%; Tyler Conklin (NYJ) 92%; Jeremy Ruckert (NYJ) 29%
Jonathan Taylor has a stranglehold on the Colts’ backfield snaps. Michael Pittman Jr.’s snap share is encouraging, despite his production struggles with Anthony Richardson as quarterback. One of the best-kept secrets in fantasy football is that Alec Pierce has seen a 76% or higher snap share in every game this season. Josh Downs has never seen a higher snap share than Pierce in any game. Pittman’s return decimated Adonai Mitchell’s opportunities. For the Jets, Braelon Allen has seen a weekly decrease in snaps over the last four games.
Steelers 18, Ravens 16
RB: Najee Harris (PIT) 58%; Jaylen Warren (PIT) 33%; Derrick Henry (BAL) 49%; Justice Hill (BAL) 49%; Keaton Mitchell (BAL) 3%
WR: George Pickens (PIT) 88%; Van Jefferson (PIT) 55%; Calvin Austin III (PIT) 33%; Mike Williams (PIT) 32%; Zay Flowers (BAL) 84%; Rashod Bateman (BAL) 80%; Nelson Agholor (BAL) 39%; Diontae Johnson (BAL) 18%
TE: Pat Freiermuth (PIT) 58%; Darnell Washington (PIT) 58%
I still see fantasy value in Jaylen Warren once he is fully healthy. He brings an element to this offense that Najee Harris doesn’t. If you can stop the run, Derrick Henry sees a huge reduction in opportunities, giving way to Justice Hill. Keaton Mitchell is not a factor at this time. Mike Williams will remain feast or famine for the Steelers, failing to exceed Calvin Austin III’s WR3 snap share. Hopefully, Diontae Johnson can pass Nelson Agholor for the WR3 opportunities. Darnell Washington is becoming a bigger part of the Steelers offense, as Pat Freiermuth’s snap share has decreased four straight weeks.
Broncos 38, Falcons 6
RB: Javonte Williams (DEN) 52%; Audric Estime (DEN) 23%; Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) 15%; Bijan Robinson (ATL) 71%; Tyler Allgeier (ATL) 7%
WR: Courtland Sutton (DEN) 84%; Devaughn Vele (DEN) 68%; Lil’Jordan Humphrey (DEN) 44%; Troy Franklin (DEN) 44%; Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) 23%; Ray-Ray McCloud (ATL) 98%; Drake London (ATL) 76%; Darnell Mooney (ATL) 58%; KhaDarel Hodge (44%)
TE: Adam Trautman (DEN) 60%; Nate Adkins (DEN) 48%; Kyle Pitts (ATL) 75%
The score discrepancy limits relevant conclusions, with Tyler Allgeier seeing a season-low snap share as a result. For Denver, Marvin Mims Jr. should see more opportunities moving forward, after a season-high in receiving yards and a touchdown.
Seahawks 20, 49ers 17
RB: Kenneth Walker III (SEA) 73%; Zach Charbonnet (SEA) 32%; Christian McCaffrey (SF) 94%
WR: DK Metcalf (SEA) 90%; Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) 83%; Tyler Lockett (SEA) 78%; Jauan Jennings (SF) 95%; Deebo Samuel Sr. (SF) 87%; Ricky Pearsall (SF) 59%
TE: AJ Barner (SEA) 85%; Eric Saubert (97%)
San Francisco running back Jordan Mason (3%) is gone but not forgotten in the hearts of fantasy players. Ricky Pearsall’s story is inspiring, but he’s still the fifth option in this offense when George Kittle is healthy. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is ascending as a premier slot receiver before our eyes. Seattle tight end AJ Barner has done little with his opportunity during Noah Fant’s absence (6 receptions, 42 total yards in two games).
Bills 30, Chiefs 21
RB: Ty Johnson (BUF) 45%; James Cook (BUF) 37%; Ray Davis (BUF) 21%; Kareem Hunt (KC) 69%; Samaje Perine (KC) 20%; Carson Steele (KC) 15%
WR: Khalil Shakir (BUF) 71%; Curtis Samuel (BUF) 60%; Mack Hollins (BUF) 56%; Amari Cooper (BUF) 51%; Xavier Worthy (KC) 58%; Justin Watson (KC) 56%; DeAndre Hopkins (KC) 47%; JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) 36%; Mecole Hardman (KC) 24%
TE: Dawson Knox (BUF) 84%; Quintin Morris (BUF) 38%; Travis Kelce (KC) 80%; Noah Gray (KC) 76%
Buffalo’s Ty Johnson saw the most backfield snaps but failed to produce against the tough Kansas City defense. Curtis Samuel had a chance to produce with Keon Coleman out and Amari Cooper limited (hand), but it was Mack Hollins who was the preferred choice at wide receiver. Xavier Worthy was much more efficient for the Chiefs, despite a drop in snap share. Noah Gray now has seen his second 72% or higher snap share in the past four games. Hopkins low snap share was likely a result of offensive strategy by Kansas City, and a lingering knee injury during the week.
Chargers 34, Bengals 27
RB: Chase Brown (CIN) 83%; Khalil Herbert (CIN) 5%; J.K. Dobbins (LAC) 73%; Gus Edwards (LAC) 11%
WR: Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 99%; Tee Higgins (CIN) 84%; Andrei Iosivas (CIN) 68%; Jermaine Burton (CIN) 22%; Quentin Johnston (LAC) 82%; Joshua Palmer (LAC) 76%; Ladd McConkey (LAC) 73%
TE: Mike Gesicki (CIN) 62%; Drew Sample (CIN) 60%; Will Dissly (LAC) 57%
Chase Brown continues to have one of the safest snap shares at the running back position. J.K. Dobbins is still the clear RB1 — don’t panic on Gus Edwards Drew Sample stayed involved, registering his third-straight week of 46 or more snaps.
Texans 34, Cowboys 10
RB: Joe Mixon (HOU) 81%; Rico Dowdle (DAL) 49%; Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) 31%
WR: Tank Dell (HOU) 64%; John Metchie III (HOU) 61%; Nico Collins (HOU) 47%; CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 80%; Jalen Tolbert (DAL) 80%; Ryan Flournoy (DAL) 65%; Jalen Brooks (DAL); KaVontae Turpin (DAL) 28%
TE: Dalton Schultz (HOU) 75%; Luke Schoonmaker (DAL) 53%; Brevyn Spann-Ford (DAL) 49%
Nico Collins missed out on a long opening-play touchdown due to a penalty, so his snap share is irrelevant in his first game back from injury. KaVontae Turpin’s 64-yard touchdown could lead to increased snaps. Jake Ferguson’s first-quarter concussion triggered Luke Schoonmaker’s snap spike, which led to 10 targets and six receptions. John Metchie III is a wide receiver sleeper with Stefon Diggs out for the year.
