Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 13

With Thanksgiving Thursday and Black Friday stuffed with four NFL games, we’ve pushed my Start and Sit column up a day. But never fear, my Week 13 edition continues its tradition of comprehensive weekly fantasy projections that rank players and provide discrete fantasy values to help you set your lineups with confidence no matter your format or depth of fantasy league. Grab some turkey and enjoy.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher-ranked players over my lower-ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 13

Quarterbacks

6. Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. LV: 34.7-244-2.15-0.94 and 3.6-19-0.08 = 18.8
7. Brock Purdy, SF at BUF: 30.6-261-1.53-0.77 and 3.7-19-0.20 = 18.2

8. Jared Goff, DET vs. CHI

29.2-263-2.12-0.73 and 1.6-3-0.04 = 18.0

Goff has averaged 5.7 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in his Lions tenure, the most extreme split among current starting quarterbacks. You can start him with confidence in fantasy in Detroit this Thanksgiving even after he failed to throw a touchdown in Indianapolis last Sunday.

9. Matthew Stafford, LA at NO

36.6-276-1.98-0.70 and 1.2-1-0.02 = 17.8

Stafford has averaged 2.00 passing touchdowns per game with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp active versus 0.56 touchdowns per game with either Nacua or Kupp out since the start of 2023. Don’t be fooled by the veteran’s full-season averages. Stafford is a top-10 quarterback with the current talent around him.

10. Baker Mayfield, TB at CAR

33.2-248-1.76-0.76 and 2.9-16-0.12 = 17.8

A wonky Falcons shootout with an outlier 50 pass attempts obscured some of Mayfield’s Mike Evans splits. But the former journeyman quarterback has teased the importance of his veteran receiver with his 5.9 yards per attempt with Evans sidelined versus his 8.2 yards per attempt with Evans active. Now that Evans is back, you can trust Mayfield as a top-10 fantasy quarterback again.

11. Sam Darnold, MIN vs. ARZ

29.8-248-1.76-0.89 and 3.6-12-0.08 = 16.9

Darnold may need to start looking over his shoulder after the Vikings signed Daniel Jones Wednesday morning. But at least for Week 13, Darnold is a safe enough fantasy start with his fourth-highest total of 21 passing touchdowns this season.

12. Justin Herbert, LAC at ATL

30.5-234-1.31-0.24 and 4.1-19-0.12 = 16.8

New Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh may be restricting his quarterback’s pass attempts with his preferred run-oriented offense. But finally healthy now, Herbert ranks fourth at his position with 177 rushing yards since Week 8. And that rediscovered versatility helps Herbert hold his back-end QB1 value even without any bye teams in Week 13.

13. Kyler Murray, ARZ at MIN

28.9-217-1.13-0.43 and 4.1-33-0.17 = 16.6

Murray’s modest totals of seven rushing attempts and 36 rushing yards his last three games could be a blip. But this wouldn’t be the first time that veteran quarterback has run less in the second half of the season. Since 2020, Murray has slipped from 6.6 rushing attempts and 41 rushing yards per game in the first half to 5.9 attempts and 34 yards per game in the second half of seasons. And with a projected dip in his rushing volume in Week 13, Murray drops below his traditional QB1 standard.

14. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at GB

34.0-259-1.73-0.68 and 1.5-5-0.03 = 16.6

The Dolphins have looked like their 2023 selves with their full complement of offensive players the last two weeks, and Tagovailoa has looked like a locked-in fantasy starter with 605 yards and seven touchdowns. The veteran will always have that potential when healthy. But Tagovailoa owes some of that outsized production to an inflated 76 pass attempts the last two weeks. And he will likely have a harder time racking up those attempts with sub-freezing temperatures and a chance of snow in Green Bay this Thursday night. In traditional fantasy formats, I would leave Tagovailoa on benches this week.

15. Jordan Love, GB vs. MIA

31.2-250-1.81-1.03 and 2.2-6-0.13 = 16.6

Love may not carry the same cold-weather baggage as his Thanksgiving opponent Tua Tagovailoa. But the Packers haven’t needed cold weather to lean on the run in recent weeks. Love has averaged a modest 25.3 attempts, 223 yards, and 0.75 touchdowns per game his last four outings. And his Love’s likely reduced volume this week renders him a fantasy QB2.

16. Bo Nix, DEN vs. CLV

33.6-215-1.34-0.54 and 4.6-22-0.24 = 16.5

The broader public may be ready to declare Nix the best quarterback in his rookie class and a definitive fantasy starter. But Nix has enjoyed his recent run of success against Falcons and Raiders defenses ranked in the bottom seven in pass defense DVOA. And over the full season, the rookie has shown marked splits with a 72% completion rate, 7.7 yards per attempt, and an 11-0 touchdown-interception ratio against bottom seven pass defenses versus a 61% completion rate, 5.7 yards per attempt and a 5-6 touchdown-interception ratio against better defenses. His Browns Week 13 defensive opponent isn’t the same scary unit it was in 2023. But I recommend some healthy Nix skepticism until he does this against some strong opponents.

17. Drake Maye, NE vs. IND: 35.1-226-1.40-1.02 and 3.8-33-0.10 = 16.5
18. Jameis Winston, CLV at DEN: 38.1-277-1.52-0.99 and 2.1-6-0.07 = 16.2
19. Caleb Williams, CHI at DET: 33.6-213-1.18-0.50 and 5.2-32-0.08 = 15.9
20. Anthony Richardson, IND at NE: 27.0-197-0.86-0.86 and 7.2-41-0.35 = 15.8
21. Trevor Lawrence, JAX vs. HST: 32.2-235-1.39-0.71 and 2.4-11-0.17 = 15.6
22. Derek Carr, NO vs. LA: 29.9-240-1.47-0.57 and 1.5-5-0.10 = 15.4
23. Geno Smith, SEA at NYJ: 35.2-264-1.16-0.99 and 2.7-14-0.11 = 15.3
24. C.J. Stroud, HST at JAX: 33.8-245-1.28-0.71 and 2.6-13-0.07 = 15.3
25. Russell Wilson, PIT at CIN: 29.6-225-1.51-0.50 and 2.4-5-0.10 = 15.2
26. Kirk Cousins, ATL vs. LAC: 33.4-261-1.44-0.80 and 1.2-0-0.04 = 14.8

Running Backs

19. Tony Pollard, TEN at WAS: 16.9-74-0.39 and 4.3-3.2-18-0.07 = 13.5
20. David Montgomery, DET vs. CHI: 13.1-57-0.73 and 2.5-2.2-20-0.04 = 13.4
21. James Cook, BUF vs. SF: 13.7-60-0.51 and 3.3-2.6-21-0.11 = 13.1
22. Bucky Irving, TB at CAR: 10.6-56-0.42 and 3.4-3.1-24-0.08 = 12.6
23. D’Andre Swift, CHI at DET: 14.7-58-0.43 and 2.8-2.4-19-0.05 = 11.8
24. Najee Harris, PIT at CIN: 15.5-61-0.40 and 2.8-2.1-16-0.05 = 11.5
25. Rico Dowdle, DAL vs. NYG: 14.2-62-0.28 and 3.0-2.4-16-0.11 = 11.3
26. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. IND: 13.6-50-0.48 and 3.2-2.5-13-0.10 = 11.0
27. Isiah Pacheco, KC vs. LV: 11.9-52-0.43 and 2.4-2.1-14-0.07 = 10.6
28. Nick Chubb, CLV at DEN: 15.8-59-0.60 and 1.2-0.8-5-0.02 = 10.6
29. Rachaad White, TB at CAR: 8.5-32-0.22 and 3.9-3.5-28-0.18 = 10.1

30. Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG at DAL

11.6-58-0.27 and 2.2-1.8-12-0.05 = 9.8

Giants coach Brian Daboll benched Tracy after a Week 12 fumble. The rookie will presumably return to his previous 70%-plus snap share Thursday. But Tracy has fumbled three times in his last two games and four times on just 138 touches this season. It will be a real fantasy risk until he strings together several clean games in a row.

31. Jaylen Warren, PIT at CIN

9.8-43-0.23 and 3.5-2.9-19-0.07 = 9.5

If Warren hadn’t already proven he was over the early-season ankle injury that cost him Weeks 4 and 5 with his between 11 and 16 touches from Weeks 7 to 11, then he proved it with a season-high 57% snap share in Week 12. You can flex the 1B Steelers back with confidence.

32. Ameer Abdullah, LV at KC

8.8-38-0.26 and 3.2-2.6-16-0.11 = 8.9

Abdullah played a dominant 90% of snaps in Week 12 with normal top Raiders backs Alexander Mattison and Zamir White sidelined by injuries. The Raiders face a quick turnaround before a Black Friday matchup with the Chiefs. And neither Mattison nor White practiced Tuesday. Even in a difficult matchup, Abdullah should have flex value if he faces little competition for backfield touches this week.

33. Travis Etienne Jr., JAX vs. HST

9.0-37-0.29 and 3.3-2.5-16-0.06 = 8.6

Between the former’s hamstring injury and the latter’s ankle injury, Jaguars teammates Etienne and Tank Bigsby haven’t played a full game together since Week 5. My somewhat educated guess that Bigsby will lead with a 44.0 versus a 38.5% carry share and Etienne will lead with a 10.5 versus a 3.5% target share makes for a neat hedge of a back-to-back ranking at 34th and 35th at the position this week. I would bench both in fantasy until we see one of them assert some sort of preferred role.

34. Tank Bigsby, JAX vs. HST

10.3-53-0.38 and 0.9-0.7-5-0.02 = 8.6

Bigsby’s relative lack of a receiving role would normally kill his fantasy prospects. But the sophomore has shown top-tier efficiencies with his 31.6% avoided tackle rate and 4.1 yards after contact per attempt that rank second and first among backs with 75 or more carries this season. I suspect that will earn him a preferred early-down and red zone role over Etienne and boost his fantasy prospects.

35. Javonte Williams, DEN vs. CLV

8.8-33-0.27 and 3.5-2.7-18-0.06 = 8.4

Since rookie Audric Estime’s 14-carry presumed breakout in Week 10, the veteran Williams has bounced back to 13 and 10 touches and played 50%-plus snap shares the last two weeks. Sean Payton seems to be orchestrating a fantasy nightmare in his Broncos backfield, so it’s probably for the best that Williams misses the flex starter benchmark. But at least this week, he looks much closer to it than Estime does.

36. Gus Edwards, LAC at ATL

11.6-44-0.45 and 1.1-0.8-7-0.02 = 8.3

Edwards will likely be the biggest beneficiary of his teammate J.K. Dobbins’ absence in Week 13. But I suspect the former player’s 9-1 carry advantage over Hassan Haskins in Week 12 overstates his likely lead back role this Sunday. With Dobbins inactive, the Chargers will be able to activate rookie Kimani Vidal. And I am projecting a moderate timeshare with Dobbins, Vidal and Haskins with 42.5, 22.0 and 13.5% carry shares. Edwards will pop if he scores a touchdown. But with a history of meager receiving contributions, Edwards will have to score to justify a fantasy start.

37. Kareem Hunt, KC vs. LV

9.7-36-0.44 and 1.5-1.2-8-0.05 = 7.9

Traditional lead Chiefs back Isiah Pacheco is poised to return from his fractured fibula on Friday, but his offensive coordinator Matt Nagy told reporters that he would determine backfield workloads based on in-game situations. That sounds like an at least temporary potential committee to me, and I am projecting Pacheco and Hunt to 42.5 to 34.5% this Friday. That latter rate drops Hunt below the flex starter benchmark. But it’s close enough that I wouldn’t drop him until I saw how the split played out this week.

38. Justice Hill, BLT vs. PHI: 3.2-15-0.09 and 2.9-2.4-21-0.09 = 5.8
39. Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. LAC: 6.5-30-0.22 and 0.8-0.7-5-0.02 = 5.3
40. Zach Charbonnet, SEA at NYJ: 4.6-17-0.18 and 2.2-1.8-12-0.05 = 5.1
41. Jerome Ford, CLV at DEN: 4.1-18-0.08 and 2.8-2.3-13-0.06 = 5.1
42. Roschon Johnson, CHI at DET: 4.6-16-0.24 and 1.3-1.0-7-0.03 = 4.5
43. Cam Akers, MIN vs. ARZ: 6.6-25-0.15 and 1.0-0.8-5-0.03 = 4.5
44. Jeremy McNichols, WAS vs. TEN: 5.4-24-0.19 and 0.9-0.7-4-0.02 = 4.4
45. Antonio Gibson, NE vs. IND: 4.7-20-0.09 and 1.3-1.1-9-0.03 = 4.2
46. Kimani Vidal, LAC at ATL: 4.9-18-0.13 and 1.2-1.0-8-0.04 = 4.0
47. Devin Singletary, NYG at DAL: 4.3-18-0.13 and 1.2-1.0-7-0.02 = 3.8
48. Jaylen Wright, MIA at GB: 5.7-24-0.12 and 0.6-0.4-3-0.02 = 3.8
49. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI at BLT: 3.5-16-0.12 and 1.5-1.1-8-0.03 = 3.8
50. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN vs. CLV: 4.9-22-0.11 and 0.8-0.7-3-0.03 = 3.7
51. Audric Estime, DEN vs. CLV: 4.1-18-0.10 and 1.1-0.9-6-0.03 = 3.7
52. Sincere McCormick, LV at KC: 5.5-23-0.14 and 0.5-0.4-2-0.01 = 3.7
53. Braelon Allen, NYJ vs. SEA: 5.1-20-0.14 and 0.8-0.6-4-0.02 = 3.6
54. Trey Benson, ARZ at MIN: 5.0-22-0.13 and 0.5-0.4-3-0.01 = 3.6
55. Ray Davis, BUF vs. SF: 4.6-19-0.13 and 0.6-0.5-5-0.02 = 3.5
56. Emanuel Wilson, GB vs. MIA: 4.4-20-0.10 and 0.7-0.5-3-0.02 = 3.3
57. Raheem Mostert, MIA at GB: 3.1-13-0.14 and 0.8-0.6-5-0.02 = 3.1
58. Jordan Mason, SF at BUF: 3.4-17-0.11 and 0.4-0.3-2-0.01 = 2.8
59. Jonathon Brooks, CAR vs. TB: 2.6-11-0.08 and 1.0-0.8-6-0.03 = 2.8
60. Hassan Haskins, LAC at ATL: 3.1-11-0.12 and 0.6-0.5-3-0.01 = 2.4
61. Chris Brooks, GB vs. MIA: 2.2-9-0.06 and 1.1-0.9-6-0.02 = 2.4
62. Sean Tucker, TB at CAR: 2.2-11-0.07 and 0.6-0.5-4-0.02 = 2.3
63. Samaje Perine, KC vs. LV: 0.4-2-0.01 and 1.6-1.3-11-0.05 = 2.3
64. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. NYG: 2.7-9-0.08 and 0.8-0.6-4-0.02 = 2.2

Wide Receivers

9. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA at NYJ: 9.0-6.4-74-0.44 = 13.3
10. Drake London, ATL vs. LAC: 8.5-5.8-69-0.46 = 12.5
11. Brian Thomas Jr., JAX vs. HST: 7.2-4.8-74-0.41 = 12.5
12. CeeDee Lamb, DAL vs. NYG: 9.1-5.9-65-0.38 = 12.4
13. Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. TEN: 6.4-4.6-68-0.53 = 12.4
14. Davante Adams, NYJ vs. SEA: 9.6-5.8-67-0.46 = 12.3
15. Jayden Reed, GB vs. MIA: 6.1-4.6-69-0.35 = 12.2
16. George Pickens, PIT at CIN: 7.9-4.9-74-0.37 = 12.2
17. Jauan Jennings, SF at BUF: 7.3-5.2-69-0.41 = 12.0
18. DK Metcalf, SEA at NYJ: 7.9-4.8-72-0.38 = 12.0
19. Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. CLV: 8.5-5.1-67-0.45 = 11.9
20. Mike Evans, TB at CAR: 7.5-4.5-64-0.55 = 11.9
21. Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. SEA: 9.2-5.9-63-0.42 = 11.8
22. Jakobi Meyers, LV at KC: 8.3-5.9-65-0.36 = 11.8
23. Malik Nabers, NYG at DAL: 9.3-6.1-61-0.36 = 11.5
24. Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. SF: 7.1-6.0-67-0.26 = 11.4
25. Jerry Jeudy, CLV at DEN: 8.4-4.9-69-0.32 = 11.2
26. Ladd McConkey, LAC at ATL: 6.8-4.8-67-0.32 = 11.1
27. Zay Flowers, BLT vs. PHI: 7.3-4.8-65-0.33 = 11.0
28. Tyreek Hill, MIA at GB: 7.0-4.7-60-0.37 = 10.7
29. DJ Moore, CHI at DET: 7.1-4.8-54-0.36 = 10.4
30. Calvin Ridley, TEN at WAS: 8.1-4.2-60-0.34 = 10.3
31. Jordan Addison, MIN vs. ARZ: 5.8-3.7-55-0.37 = 9.8
32. Darnell Mooney, ATL vs. LAC: 7.0-4.1-59-0.30 = 9.7
33. DeAndre Hopkins, KC vs. LV: 5.7-4.0-48-0.47 = 9.6
34. Keenan Allen, CHI at DET: 8.5-4.8-50-0.35 = 9.5
35. Marvin Harrison Jr., ARZ at MIN: 6.8-3.7-54-0.37 = 9.5
36. Jameson Williams, DET vs. CHI: 5.4-3.3-57-0.25 = 9.4
37. Tank Dell, HST at JAX: 6.4-4.0-51-0.30 = 9.1

38. Jaylen Waddle, MIA at GB

5.6-4.0-57-0.23 = 9.1

Waddle eroded a lot of fantasy confidence with his two-catch, minus-4-yard disaster in Week 9. But the speedy receiver’s 144-yard Week 12 renaissance should restore it. It’s been uneven, clearly. But Waddle has doubled up his average of 30 receiving yards per game with normal quarterback Tua Tagovailoa out injured with 61 yards per game with Tagovailoa healthy. You can start him at flex with moderate confidence even in the cold Green Bay weather on Thanksgiving night.

39. Deebo Samuel Sr., SF at BUF

5.7-3.5-50-0.23 = 9.1

Samuel has suffered myriad injuries and illnesses this season. And one has to wonder if his pneumonia and calf, rib, and oblique issues have caught up to him on the field. The traditional dual-threat Samuel has seen decreasing totals of 4, 3, 1 and 0 carries the last four weeks and has not run for more than 15 yards in a game since Week 1. I would still flex him in Week 13 if normal 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy can return to the field. But if it’s Brandon Allen under center for another week, Samuel may belong on fantasy benches.

40. Rome Odunze, CHI at DET

6.9-3.9-50-0.27 = 8.7

It has yet to translate to much fantasy production. But the rookie Odunze has seen silver-medal totals of 10 targets each of the last two weeks since Thomas Brown took over play-calling from fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. And Odunze has a 19.7% target share since Week 8 that is tied for 24th highest at his position and second highest on the Bears ahead of DJ Moore at 16.7%. Odunze is on the precipice of a fantasy breakout, and I would start him as my final flex player in Week 13.

41. Christian Watson, GB vs. MIA

5.3-3.1-50-0.32 = 8.5

Watson may not have inspired much fantasy confidence when he dropped what would have been an explosive touchdown catch in Week 12. But the talented but uneven third-year receiver had flirted with fantasy relevance with 17 targets and 226 yards in his previous three games and will likely see a target bump this Thursday night with his teammate Romeo Doubs likely out with a concussion. I am projecting Watson for a 17.5% target share that ties him for 47th highest among wide receivers in Week 13. He may not be a locked-in flex starter in traditional fantasy formats, but he’s at least a compelling DFS option.

42. Michael Pittman Jr., IND at NE

7.3-4.2-49-0.24 = 8.4

Pittman should see a target share bump with revelatory sophomore slot receiver Josh Downs poised to miss this Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury. I have Pittman projected for a 29.5% target share that is fifth highest at his position. But the run-versatile Anthony Richardson throws so many fewer passes than most other quarterbacks and throws them more inaccurately when he does pass that Pittman misses my flex starter benchmark by about half a projected fantasy point. The veteran receiver is a better DFS stacking play than traditional fantasy start this week.

43. DeMario Douglas, NE vs. IND: 6.4-4.6-47-0.17 = 8.2
44. Elijah Moore, CLV at DEN: 7.2-4.7-43-0.24 = 8.1
45. Amari Cooper, BUF vs. SF: 5.0-3.2-48-0.29 = 8.1
46. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN at WAS: 5.0-2.9-44-0.32 = 7.8
47. Noah Brown, WAS vs. TEN: 5.6-3.4-47-0.20 = 7.6
48. Xavier Legette, CAR vs. TB: 5.4-3.5-38-0.28 = 7.5
49. Xavier Worthy, KC vs. LV: 5.4-2.9-37-0.27 = 7.3
50. Devaughn Vele, DEN vs. CLV: 4.9-3.6-43-0.19 = 7.2
51. Quentin Johnston, LAC at ATL: 5.0-2.7-39-0.28 = 7.1
52. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG at DAL: 6.2-4.3-32-0.19 = 6.6
53. Rashod Bateman, BLT vs. PHI: 4.2-2.6-40-0.21 = 6.6
54. Joshua Palmer, LAC at ATL: 4.5-2.7-40-0.19 = 6.5
55. Alec Pierce, IND at NE: 4.0-2.2-43-0.18 = 6.5
56. Tre Tucker, LV at KC: 4.9-3.1-35-0.17 = 6.4
57. Kayshon Boutte, NE vs. IND: 5.1-3.0-37-0.18 = 6.3
58. Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL vs. LAC: 4.6-3.4-34-0.15 = 6.3
59. David Moore, CAR vs. TB: 4.8-2.9-34-0.21 = 6.1
60. Demarcus Robinson, LA at NO: 4.2-2.3-32-0.28 = 6.0
61. Adam Thielen, CAR vs. TB: 4.2-3.0-34-0.19 = 6.0
62. Adonai Mitchell, IND at NE: 4.4-2.7-33-0.17 = 5.9
63. Michael Wilson, ARZ at MIN: 4.1-2.7-33-0.21 = 5.9
64. Jalen Coker, CAR vs. TB: 4.3-2.7-35-0.17 = 5.9
65. Tyler Lockett, SEA at NYJ: 4.1-2.7-33-0.19 = 5.8
66. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, NO vs. LA: 3.9-2.1-36-0.18 = 5.7
67. Sterling Shepard, TB at CAR: 4.6-2.9-28-0.19 = 5.7
68. Tyler Boyd, TEN at WAS: 4.1-2.9-30-0.15 = 5.5
69. Marvin Mims Jr., DEN vs. CLV: 3.1-1.9-24-0.13 = 5.1
70. Darius Slayton, NYG at DAL: 3.5-2.2-32-0.12 = 5.0
71. Kendrick Bourne, NE vs. IND: 3.5-2.3-27-0.16 = 4.8
72. Brandin Cooks, DAL vs. NYG: 3.6-2.2-26-0.19 = 4.8
73. Dontayvion Wicks, GB vs. MIA: 4.4-1.9-26-0.19 = 4.7

Tight Ends

1. Taysom Hill, NO vs. LA: 5.2-3.9-35-0.22 = 13.8
2. George Kittle, SF at BUF: 6.3-5.2-69-0.56 = 12.9
3. Trey McBride, ARZ at MIN: 8.5-6.5-73-0.26 = 12.1
4. Brock Bowers, LV at KC: 8.7-6.5-65-0.33 = 11.8
5. David Njoku, CLV at DEN: 8.3-5.8-53-0.39 = 10.6
6. Travis Kelce, KC vs. LV: 7.8-6.0-52-0.34 = 10.2
7. Jonnu Smith, MIA at GB: 6.5-5.0-55-0.34 = 10.0
8. Evan Engram, JAX vs. HST: 8.2-6.0-51-0.28 = 9.8
9. Hunter Henry, NE vs. IND: 7.2-5.0-52-0.29 = 9.4
10. Dallas Goedert, PHI at BLT: 5.8-4.7-53-0.26 = 9.2

11. T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. ARZ

6.0-4.5-48-0.24 = 8.5

Hockenson played a consistent 45-48% of snaps in his first three games since his late-2023 ACL tear. But in Week 12, the veteran ramped up to a 68% snap share and saw a season-high nine targets and 114 yards. He may not be fully back to his pre-injury fantasy value, but Hockenson is at least back to his traditional TE1 standard.

12. Cade Otton, TB at CAR

6.2-4.3-41-0.34 = 8.3

Otton’s one-catch, 30-yard letdown in Week 12 may have been random. Even the best fantasy tight ends have dud games from time to time. But Otton has seen dramatic receiving splits with 7.5 catches, 73 yards, and 0.75 touchdowns per game with Mike Evans playing less than 50% of snaps versus 2.9 catches, 28 yards, and 0.14 touchdowns per game with Evans playing more than 50% of snaps this season. Now that Evans is back, Otton’s TE1 value may be more tenuous than you realize.

13. Sam LaPorta, DET vs. CHI

5.1-3.7-45-0.32 = 8.2

LaPorta has alternated scoring and not scoring over his last six games. But unlike last year, he has not mirrored his quarterback Jared Goff’s extreme home/road splits. LaPorta has scored twice on the road this season versus just once at home. And with his reduced target share in his sophomore season, LaPorta isn’t a fantasy TE1 this week despite his tremendous talent.

14. Mark Andrews, BLT vs. PHI

4.4-3.6-41-0.35 = 8.0

Andrews has played modest 61 and 42% snap shares the last two weeks after a temporary 87% spike in Week 10 with Isaiah Likely inactive. The veteran has clung to TE1 value with six touchdowns in the last seven weeks. But he’ll lose that value if he suffers his likely expected touchdown regression this December.

15. Zach Ertz, WAS vs. TEN

5.8-4.1-39-0.31 = 7.8

This may feel like a renaissance season for Ertz. But the veteran tight end saw remarkably similar 17.5 and 17.6% target shares in 2022 and 2023 as his 17.9% target share in 2024 that ranks top five at the position. He just finished those seasons early with season-ending injuries. I have him as a high-end TE2 with every team playing in Week 13. But he’s just half a projected fantasy point below the TE1 benchmark.

16. Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. LAC: 4.9-3.3-45-0.22 = 7.4
17. Tucker Kraft, GB vs. MIA: 4.2-3.0-38-0.29 = 7.0
18. Cole Kmet, CHI at DET: 4.2-3.5-37-0.23 = 6.8
19. Will Dissly, LAC at ATL: 4.8-3.8-37-0.16 = 6.6
20. Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. SF: 5.9-3.4-35-0.22 = 6.5
21. Mike Gesicki, CIN vs. PIT: 4.1-3.0-32-0.21 = 6.0
22. AJ Barner, SEA at NYJ: 3.9-2.9-27-0.19 = 5.3
23. Dalton Schultz, HST at JAX: 4.5-2.8-29-0.15 = 5.3
24. Pat Freiermuth, PIT at CIN: 3.2-2.7-27-0.17 = 5.1
25. Juwan Johnson, NO vs. LA: 3.4-2.5-27-0.18 = 5.0
26. Austin Hooper, NE vs. IND: 3.5-2.5-27-0.15 = 4.8
27. Theo Johnson, NYG at DAL: 3.7-2.4-27-0.15 = 4.8
28. Foster Moreau, NO vs. LA: 2.9-2.1-25-0.19 = 4.7
29. Noah Gray, KC vs. LV: 2.6-2.2-24-0.17 = 4.5
30. Luke Schoonmaker, DAL vs. NYG: 3.4-2.3-23-0.18 = 4.5
31. Isaiah Likely, BLT vs. PHI: 2.6-1.9-23-0.18 = 4.3
32. Chig Okonkwo, TEN at WAS: 3.0-2.2-24-0.13 = 4.2
33. Jordan Akins, CLV at DEN: 2.8-1.9-19-0.11 = 3.6
34. Brenton Strange, JAX vs. HST: 2.6-1.8-18-0.13 = 3.6
35. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. SEA: 2.9-1.9-18-0.12 = 3.5
36. Darnell Washington, PIT at CIN: 2.5-1.8-18-0.12 = 3.4
37. Tommy Tremble, CAR vs. TB: 2.6-1.8-16-0.13 = 3.3