Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event (5/12)

Bandits on the Run

2025 MLB Counter: 25.0% of games played

As we reach exactly one quarter of the season, I thought it was time to highlight the thieves among us. They take what they want without remorse and have been celebrated in song for generations. For example, I offer as evidence the famous Paul McCartney/Wings song “Band on the Run.” Most people don’t know this, but it was actually written about base stealers. You see, it was originally titled “Bandits on the Run” but the label didn’t think that would sell. However, the verse about resuming after a rain delay below shows that this was really a conversation between a first baseman and the base runner who had just arrived there: 

“Well, the rain exploded with a mighty crash
As we fell into the sun
And the first one said to the second one there
‘I hope you’re having fun’” 

The song originally had as the next line — “And good luck stealing second,” but it was unfortunately deleted. However, this song is clearly written about an attempted escape from first base, and so it is a good place to start in our review of the stolen base category.

It is widely known that the rule changes going into the 2023 season made it much easier to steal bases. As you can see in the first chart below, there was a significant jump in steals per game as a result — from 0.51 in 2022 to 0.72 in 2023. The success rate of a steal attempt also increased from 75% to 80% in 2023. In 2024, those figures stayed about the same — at 0.74 per game and 79% success rate respectively. So personally, I went into 2025 expecting about the same levels as the previous season. But although the success rate is about the same (79%), steals per game are up sharply to 0.81 per game (about 9% more). It seems that the thieves are running wild! So this begs the question — there are more steals in MLB, but does that mean that Main Event managers are recording more steals as well? 

MLB Stolen Base Rates 2019-2025 YTD

Over the years, the Main Event 80% mark — usually cited as the bar needed to compete in the overall championship — was generally around 120-130 steals per season (see second chart below). Then in 2023 and 2024 it jumped to 187-188. But if you take a look at 2025 (prorated based on the number of games played so far), the 80% mark in the Main Event is — wow — actually tracking toward 222 steals (which means that in order to be hitting this target your fantasy team requires 54 steals currently) — 18% above 2024! So Main Event managers are rostering even a bigger share of steals than they did last season. While we may not end up at 222 for the 80% Main Event mark this season, it certainly seems that more steals are required to compete in 2025. Therefore, for those owners short of the 54-steal mark, speed on the waiver wire should be a key focus in the coming months.

Main Event 80% Steals 2019-2025 YTD

Drafting Speed Burners

This is a chart of the most of the top 20 stolen base producers through Sunday, May 11, along with their ADP in the Main Event in March 2025. The chart shows there are five players — Oneil Cruz, Luis Robert Jr., Elly De La Cruz, Bobby Witt Jr., Pete Crow-Armstrong — who have registered at least 13 steals. All of them were relatively high draft selections, with De La Cruz and Witt representing top four picks. In addition, though, there are 15 more players in the chart below who have accomplished at least 9 thefts — and interestingly, the top 20 only has four total players — Victor Scott II, Maikel Garcia, Geraldo Perdomo and the surprising José Caballero drafted on average after pick 250. So most of the big producers in this category were taken relatively early. These 20 players account for 218 steals through Sunday, May 11th, which is roughly 22% of the MLB total of 974, making it tough for those managers who missed on all 20 to compete in this category.

Top Steal Specialists Drafted in the Main Event by ADP

Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event: Cade in the Shade

Main Event Most Added Players

The top-10 FAAB acquisitions from Sunday, May 11, are in the chart below. Cubs rookie Cade Horton, the former University of Oklahoma phenom who was excelling at Triple-AAA Iowa this season, was the most added player in the Main Event Sunday. You can see that Cade likes being a Cubbie bear and relaxing, as he seemingly has it made with all the FAAB dollars spent on him. Previously unrostered in the Main Event, he was added in all 57 leagues for an average price of $337. Horton is slated to start against the White Sox next week and has an opportunity to carve out a regular slot in the Cubs rotation if he performs well.

The second-most added player was Brett Baty, who was recalled last Monday and hit three homers in two days over the weekend. Baty appears to be pushing Mark Vientos for a regular spot in the lineup at third base versus right-handed pitching, and his new fantasy managers are hoping he maintains this level of production. Another third baseman was the third most added player, as Addison Barger of Toronto seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the Andrés Giménez injury. He hasn’t homered yet but certainly has the power to help in that category. Finally, Stephen Kolek of the Padres was the fourth-most added player due to his excellent complete game shutout against Colorado, and the fact that he gets a matchup versus Seattle this week. Nevertheless, Cade Horton was the big prize — he had the highest average winning bid of $119 out of the top ten — as all the other average winning bids were well below $100.

New Feature: Top Additions Based on Total FAAB Dollars Spent This Week

We’ve added a new feature — the top 10 acquisitions in the Main Event based on the total FAAB dollars spent. Obviously, this chart can highlight players that attract a higher average winning bid even though they were picked up in fewer leagues. Unsurprisingly, Cade Horton was far and away the leader here, with $6,797 spent on his services, with Evan Carter a notable second at $2,376. This week Carter and Ryan Gusto were the only two players who made this second list without being added in the most leagues and therefore listed in the first chart as well.

The Wow Bid of the Week: Don’t Fade Cade

So who attracted the highest single bids of Week 7 FAAB? Of course this week it had to be Cade Horton of the Cubs at a $337 figure (which handily beat the runner up bid of $61). Horton’s 57 winning prices ranged from two in the $300-plus range; two between $200-299; 29 between $100-199; and 24 bargains under $100 (the lowest successful bid was $45).

In addition to the players in the charts above, there were eight other players with average winning bids over $100 that were added in one to three leagues: Sandy Alcantara ($203; 2 leagues); Tyler O’Neill ($166; 1); Justin Martinez ($151; 1); Dylan Moore ($125; 1); Ryan McMahon ($108; 2); Landen Roupp ($105; 3); Ryan Jeffers ($101; 1); and Javier Báez ($101; 1).

FAAB Summary: $439 Spent; $561 Remains

In the first eight FAAB weeks, Main Event managers have recorded 12,998 winning bids (virtually identical to the 12,988 in the first eight weeks of last year). This means that the average Main Event team has placed about 15 total winning bids this season and spent about $439 of their $1,000 allocation on those 15 winning bids. Spending is up about 5% over last year’s total of $419 in the first eight weeks and since Cade Horton was the only big target, the average Main Event winning bid was just $25. This mark was almost the same as the average winning bid of $24 in this same period last season. Still, the average Main Event owner spent in total a healthy $48 — and even though this $48 is down from the earlier weeks, this reduced level will inevitably move lower as resources dwindle. As of May 11, the $439 spent represents about $55 per week, and the $561 remaining leaves Main Event managers with approximately $30 per week over the final 19 weeks of the season.

The Colosseum: Two Thumbs Up; Two Thumbs Down

Each week during the season, I’ll review the most common Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up); a bad idea (thumbs down); or simply a push. In 2024, these pickups were rated as 30 thumbs up (38%), a little worse than in 2023 (44% up).

Our fifth set of Colosseum combatants is listed below. This group is from April 20, and the top hitter addition that week — Edgar Quero of the White Sox — did reasonably well but fell a little short of the counting stats needed to really help his managers (12 runs and RBI and no homers). He gets a push. Alex Verdugo of the Braves is in a similar boat — he had a few more runs scored but a poorer batting average to end up as a middle-of-the-road addition. And finally, poor Luke Keaschall of the Twins was looking great but only lasted for seven at bats since his big pickup before sustaining a long-term injury. Unfortunately, he had to be dropped right away and received a thumbs down for his trouble. 

On the pitching side, three starting pitchers were the major additions on April 20, and generally this was a much happier situation. However, the most added pitcher — Joe Boyle — hasn’t seen a big-league mound since prior to this big acquisition date (he last pitched in the majors April 13). That earned him a thumbs down from the emperor — who has no patience for those who don’t show up for work. Chris Paddack of the Twins on the other hand, has been excellent — with pristine ratios and a win to boot — he easily earned a thumbs up (who had Paddack producing a 1.07 WHIP?). Finally, Colin Rea of the Cubs perhaps doesn’t have the gaudy ratios of Mr. Paddack, but they are good enough and he has added two wins for his fantasy managers. That’s another fine pickup for the Main Event crowd. The final tally is two up, two pushes, and two down, and makes the cumulative score 12 up; 5 pushes; and 13 down after four weeks (48% thumbs up).

The Most Added Free Agents from 3 Weeks Ago: Hitters

The Most Added Free Agents from 3 Weeks Ago: Pitchers

Overall Leaderboard: Hopping to First

Todd Hoppe took a few big hops and zoomed from 21st to first place this week, as he drew inspiration from his spirit animal from down under. He was a little upset that he missed leading the Main Event on his traditional hopping holiday of Easter, but he’s more than made up for it. In second overall, Kyle Brinkmann apparently has designs on taking control of the Main Event, despite teetering on the cliff’s edge, as he now has three teams in the top 34 (second, 17th and 19th). But there are other contenders who aren’t giving up — Ross (the iceberg) Berg is in third place, the same as last week, and our previous leader — the Kid Ben Tidd — is chilling in fourth. In fifth place is the well-known hashtag of @thefanaddict (a tag team of Brian Ambos and Adam Ronis), who were in second place last week.

The top 34 Main Event entrants will earn a prize from the overall pool this year in addition to any league prizes awarded, and other notables include John Lymberis is in sixth, the dangerous Jason Santeiu sits in seventh, and a couple of mysterious mittens are in eighth. Also worth mentioning is the ever-consistent Ned Donohue in 11th, former overall champion (gulp) John Pausma in 14th, Rotowire bullpen expert Ryan Rufe in 24th, and FTN football expert Nelson Sousa in 32nd.

Even though it’s still early, making the top 34 is a significant accomplishment — and we’ll follow the chase for the Main Event overall crown all season to see who can come out on top.

NFBC Main Event Overall Standings 

2025 Final Table CLQ & Qualifier Standings

The first chart below shows the first annual CLQ Championship League Standings — these are the 15 fantasy managers who qualified last season by finishing with the best combined score in an across-the-board competition and therefore were invited to compete in an auction league in March. If you’re unaware, the CLQ requires fantasy managers to enter one specified team in the Online Championship, the Draft Champions, and the Main Event. These top 15 in the 2024 CLQ qualified for this first-ever auction league with significant prize money at stake built from entry fees from all CLQ entrants (201 fantasy managers entered this competition in 2024). It’s the best of the best in a no-holds-barred 15-team league, so we’ll track it to see who can become the initial Champions League Champ (the Champs Champ?) — and this week Chris Uram is still leading — he now has 111.5 points — but his margin has shrunk over second-place fantasy manager Michael Brophy at 108.0. Matt Leahy and Neil Petersen are firmly in the hunt at 102.0 and 101.5 points respectively, and fan favorite Toby Guevin along with Tim Sansome are right in the thick of things in fifth and sixth places with 96.0 and 92.0 points respectively.

Below that I’m showing here the race for the NFBC CLQ — the Champions League Qualifier for next March. The top 14 in the CLQ qualify for the 2026 Champions auction league (the champion of the 2025 Champions Auction league automatically is invited back to defend their title). You can see the current 14 leading contenders to make the auction table in 2026 out of the 155 intrepid souls who entered this year. Kyle Pantalone is shirtless but leading (he was second last week), while Matt Poole drops to second after doing a great deal of swimming. Michael Armstrong moves up to third from fifth, while Aaron Jones, who plays for the Minnesota Vikings in his spare time, drops to fourth from third. Spencer Farmery is tending effectively to his crops and edges up to fifth from sixth, and Jason Wanic didn’t Panic and jumped all the way to sixth from thirteenth place. But all 14 of these fantasy managers have done an excellent job and have a leg up to be at the final table next March.

Good luck to all the fantasy managers in May — there’s still a long way to go!

2025 Final Table CLQ 

Champions League Qualifier Standings