Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 15

The fantasy football playoffs are here, but does that mean you should ride with the horses that brought you or you should trust in potential league-winners like Isaac Guerendo, Sincere McCormick and Adam Thielen? If you have any doubts, my Week 15 start and sit column can help with its leaning on my comprehensive weekly fantasy projections that rank players and provide discrete fantasy values. Those can help you set your lineups with confidence no matter your format or depth of fantasy league, so read on to help win your fantasy championships.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 15

Quarterbacks

6. Jared Goff, DET vs. BUF: 30.5-261-2.27-0.73 and 1.8-3-0.07 = 18.7
7. Matthew Stafford, LA at SF: 34.7-275-2.08-0.56 and 1.2-1-0.02 = 18.4
8. Sam Darnold, MIN vs. CHI: 29.7-254-1.96-0.77 and 3.5-12-0.09 = 18.2

9. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at HST

36.4-275-1.82-0.58 and 1.5-5-0.02 = 17.8

Tagovailoa’s monthlong absence for a late-September concussion knocked him off of most full-season leaderboards. But since he returned to play in Week 8, the veteran quarterback ranks first in both accuracy percentage and passing success rate and seventh in fantasy points. The Dolphins offense is firing on all cylinders. It just looks a little different than last year with an increased reliance on tight end Jonnu Smith and running back De’Von Achane as a receiver. You can start Tagovailoa in fantasy with confidence.

10. Patrick Mahomes, KC at CLV

35.6-245-1.89-0.82 and 3.2-16-0.07 = 17.7

Mahomes may have missed out on some near-touchdown passes in what became another low-scoring, nail-biting win against the Chargers last Sunday night. But the former MVP’s passing splits remain stark. Mahomes averaged a modest 1.0 passing touchdowns per game in Weeks 1-7 before the Chiefs traded for DeAndre Hopkins. And since the Hopkins trade, Mahomes has doubled that up with 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. He has a strong chance for two or more touchdowns against the Browns this weekend.

11. Jameis Winston, CLV vs. KC

40.1-292-1.81-1.32 and 2.4-9-0.07 = 17.6

Winston may not have played as clean as a real quarterback as his Week 15 counterpart Patrick Mahomes in recent weeks. But the former No. 1 pick has spurred similar fantasy success with a different approach. Huck it, chuck it, football, baby! Winston has averaged a ridiculous 43.2 pass attempts per game in his six starts this season. Even assuming some marked regression, Winston’s 40.1 projected attempts in Week 15 are 2.2 clear of Joe Burrow with the second-highest total at the position. And that volume plays in fantasy.

12. Brock Purdy, SF vs. LA

29.9-260-1.47-0.69 and 3.3-16-0.17 = 17.5

Purdy likely scared some fantasy players with his meager 18 pass attempts and 94 passing yards in Week 13. But that letdown came in some pretty heavy snow in Buffalo. Purdy’s Week 14 bounceback to 25 attempts, 325 yards and two touchdowns should renew your confidence in his QB1 value.

13. Baker Mayfield, TB at LAC

32.9-251-1.81-0.95 and 2.7-15-0.11 = 17.5

Mayfield never collapsed in fantasy. But he teased a potential fantasy reckoning with a modest 5.9 yards per attempt in Weeks 8-10 without Mike Evans. And Evans has clearly restored that order. Mayfield is back up to 9.0 yards per attempt the last three weeks and is a coin-flip QB1 choice with Brock Purdy.

14. Russell Wilson, PIT at PHI

30.8-250-1.63-0.52 and 2.9-5-0.13 = 16.7

Wilson eased concerns for his missing his No. 1 receiver George Pickens with another two touchdown passes in Week 14. The prior week aside, Wilson has not had the passing volume to clear the QB1 benchmark. The Steelers are too talented on defense and too balanced on offense. But there is little doubt that Wilson is experiencing a renaissance season. The veteran quarterback has a 5.2% highlight throw rate this year. That trails just Josh Allen at 5.6%.

15. Drake Maye, NE at ARZ: 34.6-228-1.42-1.04 and 3.7-34-0.09 = 16.6
16. Kyler Murray, ARZ vs. NE: 30.9-223-1.24-0.62 and 4.0-31-0.14 = 16.5
17. Jordan Love, GB at SEA: 29.9-248-1.76-0.90 and 2.1-7-0.11 = 16.5
18. Caleb Williams, CHI at MIN: 33.1-210-1.26-0.40 and 4.7-30-0.07 = 16.0
19. Bo Nix, DEN vs. IND: 33.6-220-1.34-0.64 and 4.0-18-0.20 = 15.9
20. Anthony Richardson, IND at DEN: 26.6-187-0.93-0.93 and 7.1-40-0.41 = 15.8
21. Justin Herbert, LAC vs. TB: 29.6-224-1.21-0.18 and 4.0-17-0.10 = 15.7
22. C.J. Stroud, HST vs. MIA: 33.8-245-1.28-0.68 and 2.8-13-0.07 = 15.3
23. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ at JAX: 35.4-229-1.56-0.64 and 0.9-3-0.01 = 14.6
24. Geno Smith, SEA vs. GB: 34.5-257-1.14-0.86 and 1.9-9-0.07 = 14.5
25. Drew Lock, NYG vs. BLT: 34.4-192-0.89-0.89 and 3.9-36-0.10 = 13.7
26. Kirk Cousins, ATL at LV: 33.4-260-1.30-1.10 and 1.1-0-0.04 = 13.6

Running Backs

10. Zach Charbonnet, SEA vs. GB: 15.0-62-0.69 and 4.5-3.8-26-0.09 = 15.3
11. Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. DAL: 16.5-78-0.69 and 3.6-2.8-13-0.08 = 15.1
12. Rachaad White, TB at LAC: 15.1-63-0.42 and 4.1-3.6-29-0.21 = 14.7
13. David Montgomery, DET vs. BUF: 13.6-58-0.79 and 3.0-2.7-25-0.05 = 14.7
14. Jonathan Taylor, IND at DEN: 18.0-78-0.72 and 2.4-1.6-13-0.06 = 14.5
15. James Conner, ARZ vs. NE: 15.7-67-0.50 and 3.6-3.0-26-0.09 = 14.4
16. Aaron Jones Sr., MIN vs. CHI: 15.3-69-0.52 and 3.1-2.6-21-0.14 = 14.3
17. Kyren Williams, LA at SF: 17.8-72-0.77 and 2.2-1.8-11-0.09 = 14.2
18. Rico Dowdle, DAL at CAR: 16.7-80-0.32 and 3.0-2.4-15-0.11 = 13.3
19. Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG vs. BLT: 14.2-67-0.37 and 4.0-2.9-22-0.08 = 13.0
20. Najee Harris, PIT at PHI: 17.0-67-0.49 and 3.0-2.3-19-0.05 = 13.0
21. Isiah Pacheco, KC at CLV: 14.7-65-0.50 and 3.0-2.5-16-0.08 = 12.8
22. Brian Robinson Jr., WAS at NO: 14.0-64-0.60 and 1.9-1.5-13-0.06 = 12.4
23. James Cook, BUF at DET: 12.1-56-0.45 and 3.2-2.6-20-0.11 = 12.2
24. Tony Pollard, TEN vs. CIN: 14.9-66-0.31 and 3.8-2.8-17-0.06 = 11.9
25. D’Andre Swift, CHI at MIN: 14.6-56-0.41 and 2.8-2.3-20-0.05 = 11.5
26. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at ARZ: 14.0-52-0.48 and 3.2-2.6-13-0.10 = 11.3

27. Isaac Guerendo, SF vs. LA

12.6-66-0.45 and 1.4-1.1-9-0.03 = 11.0

Head coach Kyle Shanahan has tended to lean on one running back at a time in his 49ers tenure. And Guerendo demonstrated that he’s the new one with his 56% versus 33% and 5% snap share advantage over Patrick Taylor Jr. and Ke’Shawn Vaughn in Week 14 even with an early fourth quarter exit. Keep an eye on Guerendo’s status for Thursday’s game. But the rookie practiced Wednesday and reportedly feels good and plans to play.

28. Jaylen Warren, PIT at PHI

8.7-38-0.20 and 4.0-3.2-24-0.08 = 9.6

Warren saw a season-high five targets in Week 14. Maybe that was a coincidence. But Warren is legitimately one of the Steelers’ best receivers without George Pickens on the field. I’m projecting the versatile back for a 14.0% target share that ties him for fifth highest at his position this week. And I would start him in any fantasy format with points per reception.

29. Nick Chubb, CLV vs. KC

13.0-47-0.44 and 1.3-0.9-6-0.03 = 8.6

Chubb’s snap shares have varied wildly from 30% to 66% in his seven games since he returned from his 2023 knee injury. But the All-Pro back is likely less sensitive to Browns gamescripts than you would expect. Chubb has seen at least 11 carries in six of those seven games. And I would continue to flex him even against the Chiefs in Week 15.

30. Braelon Allen, NYJ at JAX

10.1-38-0.26 and 2.8-2.0-16-0.07 = 8.4

Most of us assumed that Allen would inherit a featured running back role with Breece Hall out in Week 14 similar to his Round 4 rookie counterpart Isaac Guerendo in San Francisco. But instead, Allen split the Jets backfield work almost evenly with a 54 versus a 53% snap share advantage and with 15 versus 13 touches for his fifth-round rookie teammate Isaiah Davis. Allen even yielded a 2-2 red zone carry split despite his massive 6-foot-1, 235-pound frame. However you slice it, Allen appears to be in a committee. And with every team playing after last week’s final byes, Allen misses the flex starter benchmark because of it.

31. Travis Etienne Jr., JAX vs. NYJ

8.8-35-0.26 and 3.0-2.4-16-0.06 = 8.2

I would likely have more optimism for the Jaguars backfield committee than for their Jets opponent’s committee if Trevor Lawrence were in at quarterback. But with mostly Mac Jones playing since Week 10, Jacksonville has averaged an uninspiring 21.5 rushing attempts per game. The team’s 21.7 projected carries in Week 15 is the lowest in football, and it renders both Etienne and his teammate Tank Bigsby sits in typical fantasy formats.

32. Tank Bigsby, JAX vs. NYJ

9.7-48-0.35 and 1.2-0.9-7-0.03 = 8.1

With his traditional lack of receiving contributions, Bigsby may surprise you ranking back-to-back with his teammate Travis Etienne Jr. But after Etienne led the sophomore with a 53 versus 46% snap share in Week 13, Bigsby bounced back with an inverse 53 versus 47% snap share advantage over Etienne in Week 14. I’m not ready to start him, but I wouldn’t throw Bigsby to waivers just yet with the Jaguars slated to play the Jets, Raiders and Titans in the fantasy playoffs.

33. Sincere McCormick, LV vs. ATL

10.7-50-0.28 and 1.5-1.1-7-0.03 = 8.1

If you haven’t been locked into Raiders football in recent weeks, then it may have surprised you to see head coach Antonio Pierce name McCormick his RB1 even with Alexander Mattison poised to return this week. But the former undrafted free agent back has indeed earned his promotion. Among the 75 backs with 30 or more carries this season, McCormick ranks 28th in avoided tackle rate (21.9%), fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.4), third in explosive run rate (18.8%) and first in rushing success rate (56.3%). It’s a small sample size. But the Raiders have every incentive to see what they have in McCormick, similar to what they did with Zamir White last December. The bad Raiders offense bumps him just below my flex starter benchmark in Week 15. But McCormick is worth at least DFS lineup consideration this week.

34. Gus Edwards, LAC vs. TB: 11.1-42-0.44 and 0.9-0.7-5-0.02 = 7.9
35. Javonte Williams, DEN vs. IND: 7.8-28-0.27 and 3.2-2.4-16-0.05 = 7.6
36. Jerome Ford, CLV vs. KC: 7.0-30-0.13 and 3.1-2.5-15-0.07 = 7.0
37. Isaiah Davis, NYJ at JAX: 6.6-28-0.19 and 2.3-1.7-14-0.07 = 6.5
38. Justice Hill, BLT at NYG: 3.3-15-0.09 and 3.3-2.7-23-0.10 = 6.2
39. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN vs. IND: 7.0-33-0.17 and 1.8-1.5-7-0.06 = 6.1
40. Sean Tucker, TB at LAC: 5.2-28-0.17 and 1.7-1.3-11-0.05 = 5.8
41. Tyler Allgeier, ATL at LV: 7.0-33-0.23 and 0.8-0.7-5-0.02 = 5.7
42. Kendre Miller, NO vs. WAS: 6.7-28-0.17 and 1.4-1.1-8-0.03 = 5.4
43. Kareem Hunt, KC at CLV: 6.1-22-0.26 and 1.2-0.9-6-0.04 = 5.1
44. Antonio Gibson, NE at ARZ: 5.6-25-0.12 and 1.2-1.0-8-0.03 = 4.7
45. Kimani Vidal, LAC vs. TB: 6.6-25-0.16 and 0.9-0.7-6-0.03 = 4.5
46. Raheem Mostert, MIA at HST: 4.5-19-0.20 and 1.2-0.9-7-0.03 = 4.5
47. Roschon Johnson, CHI at MIN: 4.3-15-0.23 and 1.4-1.1-8-0.03 = 4.4
48. Tyjae Spears, TEN vs. CIN: 3.9-16-0.09 and 2.2-1.8-11-0.05 = 4.4
49. Jeremy McNichols, WAS at NO: 4.9-22-0.17 and 1.2-0.9-6-0.02 = 4.4
50. Cam Akers, MIN vs. CHI: 6.9-28-0.15 and 0.6-0.5-3-0.02 = 4.3
51. Alexander Mattison, LV vs. ATL: 4.8-17-0.17 and 0.6-0.5-4-0.02 = 3.5

Wide Receivers

15. Tyreek Hill, MIA at HST: 8.6-5.8-71-0.46 = 12.9
16. Jerry Jeudy, CLV vs. KC: 8.5-5.2-81-0.34 = 12.7
17. Drake London, ATL at LV: 9.1-5.9-69-0.47 = 12.7
18. Brian Thomas Jr., JAX vs. NYJ: 7.6-4.8-74-0.43 = 12.6
19. Malik Nabers, NYG vs. BLT: 10.5-6.7-68-0.37 = 12.5
20. Tee Higgins, CIN at TEN: 8.4-5.2-69-0.51 = 12.5
21. Ladd McConkey, LAC vs. TB: 7.5-5.4-75-0.33 = 12.2
22. Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. ATL: 8.5-5.9-66-0.32 = 11.6
23. DeAndre Hopkins, KC at CLV: 7.1-4.7-58-0.56 = 11.6
24. DK Metcalf, SEA vs. GB: 7.8-4.7-70-0.37 = 11.5
25. Garrett Wilson, NYJ at JAX: 8.9-5.7-62-0.40 = 11.4
26. DJ Moore, CHI at MIN: 8.4-5.5-59-0.40 = 11.4
27. Khalil Shakir, BUF at DET: 7.1-5.7-65-0.27 = 11.0
28. Zay Flowers, BLT at NYG: 7.4-4.7-66-0.32 = 11.0
29. Jaylen Waddle, MIA at HST: 6.6-4.9-67-0.27 = 10.8
30. Jordan Addison, MIN vs. CHI: 6.0-3.9-59-0.43 = 10.7
31. DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. PIT: 6.1-4.4-56-0.33 = 9.7
32. Jayden Reed, GB at SEA: 4.8-3.5-52-0.31 = 9.7
33. Jameson Williams, DET vs. BUF: 5.6-3.5-58-0.25 = 9.7
34. Calvin Ridley, TEN vs. CIN: 7.8-3.9-56-0.32 = 9.6
35. Marvin Harrison Jr., ARZ vs. NE: 7.2-3.8-53-0.39 = 9.6
36. Darnell Mooney, ATL at LV: 6.5-3.9-59-0.27 = 9.4
37. Keenan Allen, CHI at MIN: 8.2-4.6-49-0.36 = 9.4
38. Deebo Samuel Sr., SF vs. LA: 5.5-3.5-47-0.22 = 9.2
39. Cedric Tillman, CLV vs. KC: 7.3-4.3-50-0.34 = 9.2
40. Tank Dell, HST vs. MIA: 6.3-3.8-49-0.28 = 8.8
41. Christian Watson, GB at SEA: 5.1-3.0-53-0.30 = 8.6

42. Rome Odunze, CHI at MIN

6.7-3.7-48-0.31 = 8.6

New Bears playcaller Thomas Brown may not have reordered his wide receiver pecking order. But he’s concentrated his rookie quarterback Caleb Williams’ pass plays to target his top three receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Odunze. Since Week 11, Odunze has a 19.4% target share that ranks 37th among all wide receivers

43. Josh Downs, IND at DEN

6.1-4.1-47-0.28 = 8.5

Downs has fallen from the full-season leaderboard with a few missed games for ankle and shoulder injuries. But the sophomore receiver has a 26.4% target share in the games that he’s played this season, and that rate is tied for 17th among wide receivers with at least three games played with Amon-Ra St. Brown. If Downs can make it back from his shoulder issue this Sunday, then you should consider him in fantasy — even with a run-leaning Anthony Richardson at quarterback.

44. Adam Thielen, CAR vs. DAL

5.6-4.1-47-0.26 = 8.4

The 34-year-old Thielen again proved that he will never die with 8-99-1 and 9-102-0 lines the last two weeks, his second and third weeks back from his hamstring injury. I don’t want to doubt him with the Panthers finally favored for the first time in more than two years against the Cowboys this Sunday. But it’s important to note that Thielen enjoyed that recent success with his undrafted rookie teammate Jalen Coker sidelined. And Coker has dramatically overachieved on his non-draft status this season, played 88% of snaps in his last healthy week, and returned to full practice this week. I would prefer to sit every Panthers wide receiver in week one of the fantasy playoffs until we see how much every Panther plays finally at full strength.

45. Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL at LV

5.6-4.1-46-0.16 = 8.1

They may not have the name brands of their Bears counterparts DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. But the Falcons top three receivers Drake London, Darnell Mooney and McCloud see higher snap shares than any trio when they’re all healthy. Ostensibly the third receiver, McCloud has played 88% or more snaps in 10 of 13 games this year. And he would be a real flex option if Kirk Cousins were playing better.

46. Amari Cooper, BUF at DET

5.1-3.1-46-0.29 = 7.9

Cooper may finally have had his Bills breakout with 14 targets and 95 yards in Week 14. But the former Browns standout enjoyed that success with both Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid sidelined, and both seem poised to return this Sunday to make for a very crowded receiver room. I’m confident that the league’s YAC leader Khalil Shakir is the No. 1. Then I’m less sure, but I’m projecting Cooper for a 17.0% target share that is tied for 51st among receivers in Week 15. I would bench him in fantasy until he excels with his full Bills competition.

47. DeMario Douglas, NE at ARZ: 6.0-4.5-44-0.16 = 7.7
48. Elijah Moore, CLV vs. KC: 6.6-4.3-41-0.21 = 7.6
49. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG vs. BLT: 7.5-4.9-37-0.22 = 7.6
50. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN vs. CIN: 4.9-2.7-42-0.33 = 7.6
51. Xavier Worthy, KC at CLV: 5.5-3.1-38-0.28 = 7.5
52. Xavier Legette, CAR vs. DAL: 5.9-3.5-39-0.29 = 7.5
53. Quentin Johnston, LAC vs. TB: 5.3-2.9-40-0.31 = 7.5
54. Romeo Doubs, GB at SEA: 4.9-3.1-42-0.26 = 7.4
55. Devaughn Vele, DEN vs. IND: 5.0-3.5-42-0.20 = 7.2
56. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, NO vs. WAS: 4.7-2.5-43-0.23 = 7.0
57. Sterling Shepard, TB at LAC: 5.6-3.5-36-0.24 = 7.0
58. Kayshon Boutte, NE at ARZ: 5.3-3.0-39-0.19 = 6.5
59. Joshua Palmer, LAC vs. TB: 4.4-2.7-40-0.17 = 6.3
60. Michael Pittman Jr., IND at DEN: 5.4-3.1-36-0.17 = 6.2
61. Rashod Bateman, BLT at NYG: 3.9-2.5-37-0.20 = 6.1
62. Michael Wilson, ARZ vs. NE: 3.9-2.6-33-0.20 = 5.8
63. Marvin Mims Jr., DEN vs. IND: 3.4-2.2-30-0.16 = 5.8
64. Parker Washington, JAX vs. NYJ: 4.6-2.7-32-0.19 = 5.7
65. Alec Pierce, IND at DEN: 3.6-1.9-37-0.17 = 5.7
66. Calvin Austin III, PIT at PHI: 4.2-2.4-33-0.19 = 5.6
67. Darius Slayton, NYG vs. BLT: 4.3-2.5-35-0.14 = 5.5
68. Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. GB: 3.8-2.5-30-0.18 = 5.4
69. Jalen Coker, CAR vs. DAL: 3.9-2.5-32-0.16 = 5.3
70. Mike Williams, PIT at PHI: 3.4-2.2-30-0.18 = 5.2
71. Demarcus Robinson, LA at SF: 3.5-1.9-27-0.24 = 5.1
72. Jalen McMillan, TB at LAC: 4.3-2.3-28-0.19 = 5.1
73. Tre Tucker, LV vs. ATL: 3.8-2.3-28-0.14 = 5.0
74. Kendrick Bourne, NE at ARZ: 3.5-2.4-28-0.16 = 4.9
75. Keon Coleman, BUF at DET: 3.0-1.9-29-0.17 = 4.9
76. David Moore, CAR vs. DAL: 4.1-2.4-26-0.17 = 4.8
77. Olamide Zaccheaus, WAS at NO: 3.6-2.5-27-0.13 = 4.7
78. Jalen Tolbert, DAL at CAR: 3.6-2.2-26-0.18 = 4.7
79. Tyler Boyd, TEN vs. CIN: 3.6-2.5-26-0.13 = 4.7
80. Dyami Brown, WAS at NO: 3.3-2.2-25-0.16 = 4.7
81. Allen Lazard, NYJ at JAX: 2.9-1.9-25-0.17 = 4.4
82. Brandin Cooks, DAL at CAR: 3.4-1.9-22-0.21 = 4.4
83. Tim Patrick, DET vs. BUF: 2.7-2.0-24-0.14 = 4.3
84. Troy Franklin, DEN vs. IND: 3.6-2.0-23-0.16 = 4.2
85. Andrei Iosivas, CIN at TEN: 3.1-1.8-22-0.18 = 4.2
86. Tutu Atwell, LA at SF: 2.7-1.8-26-0.09 = 4.0
87. Kevin Austin Jr., NO vs. WAS: 3.1-1.8-21-0.10 = 3.8
88. Ricky Pearsall, SF vs. LA: 2.8-1.7-21-0.12 = 3.7
89. Dontayvion Wicks, GB at SEA: 3.3-1.6-20-0.15 = 3.7

Tight Ends

4. Jonnu Smith, MIA at HST: 7.0-5.5-62-0.38 = 11.2
5. Hunter Henry, NE at ARZ: 7.6-5.3-56-0.30 = 10.1
6. Travis Kelce, KC at CLV: 7.9-5.9-52-0.31 = 10.1
7. David Njoku, CLV vs. KC: 8.6-5.5-43-0.48 = 10.0
8. Mark Andrews, BLT at NYG: 5.2-4.4-50-0.43 = 9.8
9. Zach Ertz, WAS at NO: 6.2-4.3-41-0.35 = 8.4
10. Tucker Kraft, GB at SEA: 4.8-3.5-45-0.34 = 8.3

11. Cade Otton, TB at LAC

6.0-4.1-41-0.33 = 8.1

Otton has lost the featured role he enjoyed when Mike Evans was out in Weeks 8-10 this season. But the veteran tight end still ranks 16th with a 13.9% target share since Week 12. I would continue to start him with some of his major fantasy competitors like Evan Engram, Juwan Johnson and Jake Ferguson dealing with backup quarterbacks.

12. Sam LaPorta, DET vs. BUF

5.0-3.5-41-0.35 = 7.9

The Lions have accumulated too much talent for any of their receivers to see the target shares their skill sets demand. But fortunately for fantasy players, LaPorta has continued to score touchdowns. The sophomore tight end has 15 red zone and six end zone targets this season, tied for fifth and sixth at his position. And with an elevated chance to score in Week 15, LaPorta clings to his TE1 value even with a lesser target share than he saw in his rookie season.

13. Evan Engram, JAX vs. NYJ

6.7-4.9-39-0.21 = 7.6

Engram led tight ends with 114 catches in 2023, and it looked like 2024 would be more of the same when he caught 10 passes in Week 6, his first game back after his Week 1 hamstring injury. But since that outburst, Engram has ranked a modest eighth among tight ends with 5.1 catches per game. Engram hasn’t caught more than four touchdowns in a year since his rookie 2017 season, so he needs those catches to excel in fantasy. And with Mac Jones unlikely to reverse his trends at quarterback, Engram falls below my TE1 benchmark in Week 15.

14. T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. CHI

5.4-4.0-43-0.21 = 7.5

Hockenson made the jump from 45-48% snap shares in Weeks 9-11 to 62-68% snap shares in Weeks 12-14. I’m confident that he’s fully recovered from his December 2023 ACL injury. But with Sam Darnold at quarterback and with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison looking like the best receiver duo in football, Hockenson hasn’t quite been the same focal point of the Vikings offense as he was before his injury. I’m projecting him for a 19.5% target share that ties him for ninth at his position in Week 15. And with every tight end back from byes this week, I would leave Hockenson on your fantasy benches.

15. Juwan Johnson, NO vs. WAS: 4.9-3.7-40-0.27 = 7.4
16. Jake Ferguson, DAL at CAR: 6.0-4.3-38-0.21 = 7.2
17. Pat Freiermuth, PIT at PHI: 4.0-3.5-38-0.25 = 7.0
18. Kyle Pitts, ATL at LV: 4.8-2.9-39-0.22 = 6.7
19. Dalton Kincaid, BUF at DET: 5.6-3.2-33-0.21 = 6.2
20. Noah Gray, KC at CLV: 3.5-2.9-33-0.22 = 6.0
21. Dalton Schultz, HST vs. MIA: 5.0-3.2-33-0.18 = 6.0
22. Mike Gesicki, CIN at TEN: 3.8-2.9-31-0.19 = 5.7
23. Isaiah Likely, BLT at NYG: 3.5-2.5-29-0.25 = 5.6
24. Austin Hooper, NE at ARZ: 3.8-2.8-30-0.19 = 5.5
25. Noah Fant, SEA vs. GB: 3.8-3.1-32-0.12 = 5.4
26. Will Dissly, LAC vs. TB: 4.0-3.1-31-0.14 = 5.4
27. Cole Kmet, CHI at MIN: 3.1-2.6-28-0.17 = 5.1
28. Foster Moreau, NO vs. WAS: 3.1-2.2-27-0.19 = 4.9
29. Chig Okonkwo, TEN vs. CIN: 3.5-2.5-25-0.14 = 4.6
30. Grant Calcaterra, PHI vs. PIT: 3.0-2.4-26-0.13 = 4.6
31. Tyler Conklin, NYJ at JAX: 3.8-2.5-23-0.15 = 4.5
32. Michael Mayer, LV vs. ATL: 3.2-2.1-20-0.15 = 4.0
33. Daniel Bellinger, NYG vs. BLT: 2.8-2.2-22-0.11 = 4.0
34. Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR vs. DAL: 2.6-2.0-21-0.13 = 4.0
35. Josh Oliver, MIN vs. CHI: 2.1-1.7-19-0.14 = 3.5
36. Tanner Hudson, CIN at TEN: 2.5-1.9-17-0.11 = 3.3
37. AJ Barner, SEA vs. GB: 2.2-1.7-16-0.12 = 3.1
38. Darnell Washington, PIT at PHI: 2.1-1.5-15-0.09 = 2.8
39. Tommy Tremble, CAR vs. DAL: 2.1-1.4-14-0.10 = 2.7
40. Luke Schoonmaker, DAL at CAR: 1.8-1.3-12-0.09 = 2.4