Week 4 Fantasy Football Game By Game Breakdown

Week 3 was one of the lowest-scoring NFL fantasy football slates I’ve seen in quite some time, with injuries playing a huge factor in the relative disappointments around the league.

There is a crazy amount to keep track of entering Week 4, so let’s not waste any time. This is my game-by-game look at everything you need to know for fantasy football this weekend.

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Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 47.5, CIN -3
Pace: CIN: 25.8 sec/snap (6th), MIA: 29.56 sec/snap (27th)

What to watch for: Joe Mixon didn’t play much of the fourth quarter last week with a sore ankle. Samaje Perine finished the game.

Bengals

Quarterback

That’s more like it, Joe Burrow.

After a rough first two weeks, Burrow and the Cincinnati passing game got it going in Week 3. Burrow passed for 275 yards and three touchdowns against the Jets. The only concern was that against a Jets team that had ranked bottom-five in pressure rate and sacks entering the week, Burrow was still under pressure on 33.3% of his dropbacks and sacked multiple times. After we started to see opposing defenses run more Cover-2 looks against the Bengals offense in an effort to limit the explosive plays, it was possible the Jets would follow suit, considering that this is a copycat league. However, after Burrow faced Cover-2 defense over 30% of the time during the first two weeks, the Jets ran it just one time against him this past weekend. Entering a Week 3 matchup with the Dolphins, it is unlikely he sees Cover-2 a whole lot, as Miami continues to play a ton of Cover-0, blitzing at a massive rate. The Dolphins just blitzed Josh Allen on nearly 39% of his dropbacks last week and on the season, Through three weeks, the Dolphins have blitzed Mac Jones on 30% of his dropbacks, Lamar Jackson on 55% and Josh Allen on over 38%. Burrow could take advantage of this matchup, as Burrow has dissected the blitz so far in his career. Back in 2021, Burrow ranked fifth in completion percentage (70%), first in yards per attempt (10.8) and seventh in passing touchdowns (11) against the blitz. And so far in 2022, Burrow is completing 68% of his passes against the blitz, while throwing three touchdowns to zero interceptions and averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. The Dolphins have allowed consecutive signal callers to eclipse 300 passing yards. Burrow could easily make it three in a row Thursday. 

Running Back

Joe Mixon has gotten off to a bit of a slow start this season, rushing for just 163 yards on 58 attempts, while failing to find the end zone. Mixon is averaging just 2.1 yards before contact per rush so far this season, a bottom-10 mark in the league. Sunday, Mixon was dealing with some ankle soreness and actually missed a large part of the fourth quarter, though the Bengals led comfortably. Samaje Perine played most of the final quarter and even scored a receiving touchdown. With this being a short week for Cincinnati, we need to keep an eye on Mixon’s status but as long as he is active, you are starting him. He is still averaging a healthy 26 opportunities and 23.6 touches per game, though his third-down usage still isn’t elite. Still, with teams playing more Cover-2 against Cincinnati, we are seeing more checkdowns to Mixon, as he was top-five among running backs in first-read targets entering Week 3. With Miami sending so many blitzes, we could see an uptick in targets to the running backs, as Burrow will have to get the ball out fast. That happened with Buffalo last week, as Josh Allen had 29 pass attempts where he held the ball for less than 2.5 seconds, the second most of the week. As a result, Devin Singletary caught a career-high nine passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. Mixon is a top-10 running back who is going to get it going in no time.

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase found the end zone Sunday and was targeted 10 times. You’re starting him every single week, especially against a man-heavy Miami defense. Chase currently ranks fourth in receptions (7), third in targets (11) and second in touchdowns (2) among wideouts against man coverage this season. 

However, I want to talk about one of the league’s most underrated wide receivers, Tee Higgins.

Because Higgins plays alongside Chase, he doesn’t always get a lot of attention. That needs to change. Higgins was outstanding in Week 3, hauling in 5-of-7 targets for 93 yards, and he should have had a miraculous touchdown where it appeared he got both feet in the end zone. Higgins took a hard hit earlier in the game but was able to return. While Chase is still the WR1 in Cincinnati, the gap isn’t as large as many might believe. Over the last 16 games where Chase and Higgins played together in full, Chase is averaging 17.9 PPR points and 8.0 targets per game, while Higgins is averaging 15.8 PPR points and 7.6 targets per game during that same stretch. And despite playing in 14 games to Chase’s 17 a season ago, Higgins only saw one fewer end zone target. So far this season, Chase has six end zone targets to Higgins’ three, though Higgins barely played in Week 1 and missed some time in Week 3. Don’t overlook how great Higgins is when he’s on the field. He’s a must-start wide receiver.

Finally, Tyler Boyd is coming off a great game, catching four passes for 105 yards and a touchdown. He did most of his damage on a 56-yard catch-and-run score, but Boyd has now found the end zone in two of three games to open the season. His ceiling and floor aren’t as high as Chase or Higgins, and he is averaging less than six targets per game when all three players have been on the field since the start of last year. However, the Bengals are playing faster this season, ranking sixth in pace of play, compared to 29th a season ago, which will only help Boyd. He’s (usually) a lower-ceiling WR3.

Tight End

Entering the week, Hayden Hurst was dealing with a groin injury. While he ultimately played, Hurst only played about 38% of the snaps, as his snaps were limited, especially in the second half of the game. Despite the limited role, Hurst is still third among all tight ends in routes run so far this season (110) and if he can get back to full strength before Thursday, he’ll remain a viable streaming tight end. 

Dolphins

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa completed just 13-of-18 passes for 186 yards and a touchdown in Miami’s win over Buffalo last week, but most numbers from the Dolphins’ offense should be taken with a grain of salt. Miami ran just 39 offensive plays in the game, which is obviously going to limit things. Tagovailoa took a huge hit at the end of the first half, and while it looked like a potential head injury, he was ultimately cleared — it was later announced as a back injury. Tagovailoa returned to the game, and barring any setbacks, should be good to go for this week’s contest. As we discussed last week, Tagovailoa is obviously a more appealing fantasy quarterback due to the pass-catchers, scheme and situation around him. Only 8.9% of his pass attempts have been into tight windows, one of the lowest rates in the NFL and down from his 19.3% rate from 2021, which led the league. The Dolphins are also using pre-snap motion over 70% of the time with Mike McDaniel running the offense, the highest rate in football. The Dolphins are also calling pass 63.3% of the time in neutral game scripts, the seventh-highest rate in the league. The Bengals are allowing the lowest passing touchdown rate in football right now (1.7%) but they haven’t been tested yet, facing Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco. Consider Tua an extremely high-end QB2 this week.

Running Back

I don’t know. You tell me.

Seriously. This Miami backfield has been impossible to predict on a weekly basis. In Week 3, Chase Edmonds converted two goal-line carries into touchdowns, but he still played just 44% of the offensive snaps and touched the ball seven times. Again, Miami ran fewer than 40 offensive plays, but it feels like the usage and playing time in this backfield can change any given week because, well, it has. Take a look.

Chase Edmonds

Raheem Mostert

After last week, Edmonds now leads the team with two carries from inside the 5-yard line, while fullback Alec Ingold has one and Mostert has zero. Edmonds has also run 53 pass routes to Mostert’s 48, so as of this moment, it appears that Edmonds is the running back to start in Miami. Of course, that doesn’t mean you have to start anyone from this backfield, especially when you consider how pass-happy the Dolphins have been through three weeks. Edmonds faces a Bengals defense that just allowed six catches for 53 yards on 11 targets out of the backfield to Breece Hall. And in 2021, the Bengals coughed up the fourth-most receptions (6.4) and targets (7.9) per game to opposing backfields. Edmonds is a flex play who does carry some risk ahead of Thursday night’s game.

Wide Receiver

Jaylen Waddle only ran 16 pass routes Sunday but still caught four passes for 102 yards. Again, Miami’s offense was hardly on the field, but Waddle still made a huge impact despite that. With Waddle lining up on the right side of the formation around 60% of the time so far this season, he should see plenty of coverage from Eli Apple, who is allowing over 11 yards per reception so far this season. Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill is coming off a quiet game, but he is obviously a must-start wide receiver, especially with 13% of Tagovailoa’s pass attempts this season going for 20 yards or more, a top-10 rate in the NFL. Cincinnati had Chidobe Awuzie shadow very often in 2021, but he has yet to follow opposing receivers so far this season. He is also allowing an average depth of target of 14.6 yards. 

Tight End

Sure, Miami’s offense was hardly on the field last week. But when they were, Durham Smythe outsnapped Mike Gesicki 32-17, while running 10 routes to Gesicki’s seven. Gesicki was targeted one time — his role is just not conducive to a consistent season for fantasy football. 

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (London)

Total: 44, MIN -2.5
Pace: NO: 27.12 sec/snap (11th), MIN: 24.09 sec/snap (2nd)

What to watch for: Dalvin Cook is dealing with a shoulder injury. He is listed as day-to-day but is expected to play in this game. For the Saints, Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry left Sunday’s game with injuries. 

Saints

Quarterback

Jameis Winston continues to fight through multiple fractures in his back and over his last two games, the veteran signal caller has thrown two touchdowns and five interceptions. In the 2021 season, the Saints weren’t throwing the football very often, as Winston averaged just over 20 pass attempts per game and 8.3 intended air yards per pass attempt. However, so far in 2022, Winston is averaging 38.3 pass attempts per game, while no quarterback in the NFL is averaging more intended air yards per pass attempt (11.3). His 5.5 completed air yards per pass attempt also lead the league and over the last two weeks, Winston has over 1,000 air yards. 16.5% of Winston’s pass attempts have traveled at least 20 yards down the field and as long as his wide receivers are healthy, Winston makes for a solid QB2 against a vulnerable Minnesota secondary that is coughing up the third-most yards per pass attempt so far this season (7.8).

(Note: Winston also missed practice Thursday. His situation is definitely one to watch heading into Sunday’s early start.)

Running Back

After a one-game absence, Alvin Kamara returned to the Saints lineup Sunday. He logged nearly 70% of the snaps, seeing 21 opportunities and 17 touches, though it was Mark Ingram who scored the short-yardage touchdown. Interestingly enough, Ingram actually out-snapped Kamara 10-4 on third downs. Kamara ran a route on about 62% of New Orleans’ dropbacks, which is certainly improved from his 43% route participation from back in Week 3, but I’d still like to see more routes from Kamara. It has been a slow start to the season, but Kamara should still be in line for 15-18 touches each week and faces a Vikings defense that has already allowed five running back touchdowns this season. Their 1.7 rushing scores allowed per game are the second-most in football. Kamara remains a low-end RB1.

Wide Receiver

Chris Olave has officially entered the discussion as a high-upside WR3 in fantasy. In Week 2, Olave was targeted 13 times and had the infamous 300-plus air yards. He followed it up in Week 3 with nine receptions for 147 yards and 13 more targets, giving him 26 targets over the last two weeks. Olave saw nearly 200 air yards in this game and for the season, he now leads all wideouts with 536 air yards, while his 4.5 air yards per route run are the third-most among all players with at least 20 routes this season. Olave is currently 15th in the league in yards per route run (2.39), while his 10 targets of 20 yards or more currently lead the NFL. He is in a terrific spot to find continued success, facing a Vikings secondary that can be had, especially if Harrison Smith (concussion) is unable to return to the lineup. Olave will see coverage from both Patrick Peterson and Cameron Dantzler, both of which are matchups he can win. Peterson is allowing 14.5 yards per reception so far this season, as well as an aDOT of 14.7 yards. Dantzler, meanwhile, is coughing up the second-most receptions (17) and fourth-most yards (204) in coverage this season, while allowing a reception every 6.6 coverage snaps. There is a lot to like about Olave in Week 3 and beyond.

Source: NFL Next Gen Stats

Michael Thomas is coming off a modest game, hauling in all five of his targets for 49 yards. It was his first game of the season without finding the end zone, and he apparently picked up a toe injury, which kept him from finishing out the game. The injury is not considered serious, but we have to keep an eye on his status, as well as that of Jarvis Landry, who left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury and did not return. If Thomas and/or Landry is unable to play on Sunday morning, Olave would become a must-start. Landry had a huge game in Week 1, seeing way more usage down the field, sporting a 15.0-yard aDOT. However, that has dropped to just 9.7 yards over the last two weeks. Thomas, meanwhile, is a mid-range WR2 as long as he suits up, as he gets the same favorable matchup as Olave. 

Tight End

Juwan Johnson once again played around 70% of the snaps for the Saints Sunday, but his route participation dropped from over 70% in Week 2 to 57% in Week 3. Adam Trautman played just three fewer snaps than Johnson last week, though Johnson doubled him in routes run. If one of New Orleans’ wideouts ends up missing this game, I’d have more confidence in Johnson as a potential streaming candidate.

Vikings

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins played at home and in the afternoon Sunday, which meant he put up a quality fantasy outing, throwing for 260 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Lions. Now, he’ll face a Saints defense that has struggled to get to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. Through three weeks, New Orleans is sporting the league’s third-lowest pressure rate at 9.0%, The Saints are also sporting the second-lowest knockdown rate (2.2%), which could bode well for Cousins, who is sporting the league’s ninth-highest adjusted completion percentage from a clean pocket this season (81.6%). And in 2021, Cousins finished eighth in the league in touchdown passes from a clean pocket. With Minnesota playing at the second-fastest pace in the NFL, Cousins remains in the low-end QB1 range for this week’s matchup across the pond.

Running Back

Dalvin Cook is dealing with a shoulder injury and is listed as day-to-day. There is still a very good chance he suits up and if he does, you are obviously starting him. The Saints run defense remains a tough matchup, but it hasn’t been quite as daunting this season, as New Orleans has already allowed two running backs to rush for 100 yards, something they did just once in three seasons entering the 2022 campaign. If Cook ends up missing this game, you know to start Alexander Mattison as a top-12 running back. When Cook left the game last week, Mattison came in and, like he always does in those situations, produced. He found the end zone against the Lions and since the 2020 campaign, Mattison has been a borderline elite fantasy running back when he sees more work. In fact, in six games without Cook since 2020, Mattison is averaging 19.5 carries, 4.5 targets, 3.8 receptions, over 100 total yards and 20.05 PPR points per game. Again, the Saints run defense is still tough, but Mattison would be in line for 20 touches pretty easily. 

Wide Receiver

It was shocking to see Justin Jefferson catch just three passes for 14 yards against the Lions, but give Detroit credit: Jeff Okudah once again did a tremendous job in coverage, and Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said Jefferson was double-covered on all but seven or eight plays against the Lions. It could be something that Jefferson has to deal with at times over the course of the season, but you obviously aren’t benching him in any fantasy leagues. He’ll see coverage from Marshon Lattimore, who could very well shadow him for this game. We saw Lattimore shadow Mike Evans on 63% of his routes in Week 2, which isn’t shocking, so I’d guess Lattimore follows Jefferson for around half of his routes this week. In Week 2, Minnesota faced Darius Slay and the Eagles and the Vikings tried to get Jefferson more advantageous matchups by moving him into the slot for 34 snaps. However, in Week 3, Jefferson was only in the slot 15 times. Look for an uptick this week, especially after a quiet Week 3 outing.

Meanwhile, Adam Thielen is coming his best game of the season, hauling in 6-of-8 targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. Thielen benefited from Jefferson seeing all of the attention from Detroit’s defense, something that can happen very often this season. If Lattimore shadows Jefferson in this game, Thielen will see coverage from Paulson Adebo, who allowed a 95.5 passer rating and four touchdowns in coverage a season ago. Thielen remains a high-end WR3 who is still likely more touchdown dependent than we’d like.

K.J. Osborn also had a strong Week 3, hauling in 5-of-8 targets for 73 yards and the game-winning touchdown. There won’t be many times where Thielen and Osborn combine for 18 targets while Jefferson sees just six, but Osborn is seeing plenty of playing time, as Minnesota runs way more three-wide sets this season. Osborn logged over 76% of the snaps on Sunday, while running a route on about 79% of Minnesota’s dropbacks. 

Tight End

As much as I love him, Irv Smith is likely going to have a roller coaster season. His snap share hovered around the 50% mark Sunday, running a route on about 60% of dropbacks. That usage just isn’t good enough, especially when there are tight ends on waivers that are full-time, every-down players. The Saints, meanwhile, are coughing up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends so far this season (4.27).

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

Total: 52.5, BUF -3.5
Pace: BAL: 29.34 sec/snap (26th), BUF: 28.94 sec/snap (24th)

What to watch for: Buffalo’s injuries. Micah Hyde is on IR, while Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, Dane Jackson and Mitch Morse all missed Week 3. There also could be a lot of wind in this game, which is something to keep an eye on.

Ravens

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson is putting together an MVP caliber season… again. He threw for 218 yards and four touchdowns against the Patriots Sunday, adding 107 rushing yards and a score on the ground. It was Jackson’s second consecutive game with at least 100 rushing yards, giving Jackson 14 career games with at least 100 passing and rushing yards. 22% of his total games have resulted in 100 passing and 100 rushing yards, giving him the obvious elite floor/ceiling combination we have seen over the last few seasons. Through three games, Jackson has 749 passing yards, 243 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns — through the first three games of his 2019 MVP season, Jackson recorded 863 passing yards, 172 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns. Once again dominating the NFL, Jackson now faces a banged-up Buffalo defense that plays as much zone coverage as any team in football, which could lead to less rushing yardage but plenty of efficiency in the passing game, as Jackson posted the 11th-best passer rating against zone coverage in 2021. 

Running Back

J.K. Dobbins made his long-awaited return in Week 3, sharing the backfield with Justice Hill. In his season debut, Dobbins played 44% of the snaps, while recording seven carries and two receptions. Hill, meanwhile, played just over 47% of the snaps and touched the ball six times, though he got the edge in both goal-line and third-down snaps. It was fully expected that Dobbins would be limited in his first game back, and that likely continues in Week 4, making him difficult to trust as anything more than a low-end flex play, especially against a terrific Buffalo defense that could have their top-two interior defensive linemen back. So far this season, just 27% of the yardage surrendered by the Bills defense has come via the run, the sixth-lowest rate in the league. And while he isn’t going to warrant a lot of attention during the week, don’t overlook adding Hill in deep leagues at running back. Gus Edwards is still out, while Kenyan Drake was a healthy scratch with Dobbins back this past weekend. 

Wide Receiver

After consecutive strong showings, Rashod Bateman caught just two passes for 59 yards Sunday, losing a fumble. Bateman is still the top wideout in Baltimore, but through three weeks, the sophomore is just 64th among all receivers in routes run, logging an underwhelming 62% of the offensive snaps. His 18% target share is nothing to write home about — through three weeks, Bateman has been pretty reliant on huge plays. Of course, the Ravens continue to take those shots, as Jackson currently ranks fourth in the league with 18 deep pass attempts, while 20.5% of his attempts have traveled 20 yards or more down the field, the third-highest rate in football. Bateman has seen six of those deep targets (sixth most), ranking fourth among all qualified wideouts in yards per route run (3.05). Buffalo’s secondary is banged up, and Poyer remaining sidelined would help Bateman, as the Bills will be more susceptible to the deep ball. Still, the Bills allowed the fewest deep passing plays last year and currently rank top-10 in yards per attempt allowed. Bateman is a WR3 with upside.

Devin Duvernay has three touchdowns on eight targets so far this season. He’s still seeing plenty of playing time, but you really, really have to hope he continues this unsustainable touchdown efficiency if you are looking to start him. 

Tight End

Mark Andrews is a cheat code. He caught eight passes for 89 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Patriots Sunday, seeing 13 targets. Andrews has seen double-digit targets in two straight games and now leads the entire NFL with a whopping 37% target share through three weeks of play. Andrews has been targeted on 36% of his routes and appears to be the clear TE1 in fantasy. If he is on your team, you have a massive advantage over your opponent just about every single week. 

Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen is coming off a huge volume game against the Dolphins, attempting 63 passes. He threw for 400 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while adding 47 rushing yards on eight carries. Buffalo once again completely abandoned the run, sporting a 74.4% pass rate. Per usual, the Dolphins blitzed Allen a lot, doing so on almost 39% of his dropbacks, which forced Allen to get the ball out fast. 29 of his passing attempts came when he held the ball for less than 2.5 seconds, a top-three mark in the league for Week 3. Although Wink Martindale is no longer with the Ravens, Baltimore is still blitzing at the league’s seventh-highest rate (22.2%), but Allen won’t see it nearly as much as he did last week. Buffalo’s offensive line is currently dealing with some injuries, but Allen obviously remains an elite play this week, especially against a Baltimore secondary that has not looked great through three weeks. The Ravens have allowed the third-most air yards (419), fourth-most yards per pass attempt (7.8) and ninth-highest passing touchdown rate (5.0%). Baltimore also just allowed 31 rushing yards and a touchdown to Mac Jones in Week 3.

Running Back

Week 3 was very odd, especially considering Devin Singletary caught seven passes for 78 yards and a touchdown. He was targeted 11 times, and while I obviously love Singletary more than just about anyone, this game is pretty clearly a mirage. Like I mentioned earlier, 46% of Allen’s pass attempts came when he held the ball for 2.5 seconds or less and with Miami blitzing so much, he got the ball out quick and threw the football where the blitz was coming from. It was nice, however, to see Singletary dominate the playing time, as he logged 74% of the snaps and ran 45 pass routes to Zack Moss and James Cook’s combined 15. Assuming the passing-game usage comes way down, Singletary isn’t likely to see more than 10-12 touches against a tough Baltimore run defense. Yes, both Patriots running backs found the end zone against the Ravens last week but for the season, just 22.8% of the yards allowed by this defense has come on the ground, the second-lowest rate in football. 

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs is coming off more of a floor game in Week 3, but if your floor game is seven catches for 74 yards, you are obviously one of the top players in fantasy. Diggs saw 11 targets — for the season, he is now sporting an impressive 27.5% target share and should have a huge day against a vulnerable Baltimore secondary that has already coughed up three different 100-yard games to opposing wide receivers, including DeVante Parker just last week. Gabe Davis, meanwhile, returned from a one-game absence and was once again a full-time player, logging over 95% of the offensive snaps and running a route on 96% of dropbacks. He caught just three passes for 37 yards, but his day would have been strong if he held onto a touchdown pass in the back of the end zone. Targets in the end zone will continue to come Davis’ way, and he should continue to be trusted as a low-end WR2 ahead of a matchup with a Baltimore defense that is coughing up the most points per game to opposing wide receivers so far this season.

We saw Isaiah McKenzie have a solid game Sunday, hauling in 7-of-9 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. McKenzie’s usage was interesting, as Davis returned but Jake Kumerow left with an injury. Diggs also was on and off the field dealing with cramps throughout the game, which led to some more snaps from McKenzie, especially in two-wide sets. When Buffalo has been at full strength on offense, McKenzie has been essentially splitting slot snaps with Jamison Crowder. 

Tight End

Dawson Knox’s slow start continued Sunday, as he caught just four passes for 25 yards. He also left the game at times due to cramping but was able to play the majority of the snaps. Through three weeks, Knox has 24 pass-blocking snaps, the second-most among all tight ends, which is a bit of an issue considering that through three games in the 2021 season, Knox only recorded four pass-blocking snaps. And when his floor is already pretty low as it is, that is an issue. Knox still has as much multi-touchdown upside as most tight ends in the league and the Ravens have allowed touchdown receptions to Mike Gesicki and Tyler Conklin already this season. 

Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons

Total: 48, CLE -2.5
Pace: ATL: 29.18 sec/snap (25th), CLE: 28.9 sec/snap (23rd)

What to watch for: Cleveland’s defense has already struggled this season, making it paramount that Myles Garrett (recovering from a car accident) and Jadeveon Clowney (ankle) play.

Falcons

Quarterback

Don’t look now, but Marcus Mariota is playing pretty well right now. His 7.8 completed air yards per completion is actually the third-highest mark in the NFL, and he’s sixth in yards per pass attempt (8.0). He has now scored multiple touchdowns in two of three games, and he’s added two rushing touchdowns. Mariota is averaging 8.3 rushing attempts per game, while 15 of his 25 total rushes have been designed. His 40 plays off RPO are tied for the most in football, as Atlanta continues to utilize his mobility. Because of that, Mariota remains on the streaming radar, especially against a Cleveland defense that has already allowed two rushing touchdowns to opposing signal callers this season. Play-action remains a huge part of Arthur Smith’s offense, as 47.4% of Mariota’s dropbacks lead to play-action, the highest rate in the NFL. The Browns, meanwhile, just allowed Mitchell Trubisky to post a perfect completion percentage off play-action in Week 3. Cleveland is also allowing the most air yards in the NFL through three weeks (444).

Running Back

Cordarrelle Patterson was outstanding Sunday, rushing for 141 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. His usage is still all over the place, as rookie Tyler Allgeier still played 37% of the snaps and touched the ball seven times. Patterson also only played two third-down snaps — through three weeks, he’s only caught four passes. Suddenly, it looks like Patterson is more appealing in standard or half PPR leagues but Atlanta’s running game looks good right now. There is more movement, pre-snap motion and the presence of Mariota is actually opening up running lanes for Patterson. In 2021, Patterson averaged 2.1 yards before contact per rush but so far this season, the veteran is averaging 3.8 yards before contact per carry, good for the fifth-highest rate among all running backs. Patterson is a low-end RB2 against a Browns defense that is stuffing just 13% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the third-lowest rate in football. And if Jadeveon Clowney doesn’t return, the matchup is even more favorable.

Wide Receiver

Drake London has now found the end zone in consecutive games, as he continues to see a ton of targets in Atlanta. London is sporting a 33% target share through three weeks, one of the highest rates in all of football. The rookie has looked great, averaging 2.74 yards per route run, the eighth-highest mark among wideouts. London has been targeted on 33% of his routes so far this season, an elite rate that makes him a borderline must-start player right now. Cleveland’s secondary has really struggled so far this season, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Denzel Ward typically does not shadow, though he did follow Diontae Johnson for most of Week 3’s contest, so we’ll see if he does the same with London. 

Tight End

After a week of discussing why the Falcons aren’t using Kyle Pitts more, Atlanta attempted to quiet that noise early in Week 3. Pitts was targeted on four of Atlanta’s first five pass attempts, ultimately finishing the game with five catches for 87 yards on eight targets. With Mariota attempting plenty of passes down the field, that is good for Pitts, who leads all tight ends with an aDOT of 14.3 yards, and his six targets of 20-plus yards also lead the league. The uptick in usage was obviously encouraging, but I’d also like to see Atlanta scheme Pitts in ways where he’ll see more coverage from safeties and linebackers. Still, he’s an obvious top-six tight end.

Browns

Quarterback

Jacoby Brissett has played really well over the last two weeks. During that span, the veteran signal caller has passed for 449 yards and three touchdowns, while completing over 74% of his passes. The volume obviously still isn’t great for Brissett, who is barely averaging 30 pass attempts per game in Cleveland’s run first offense that is sporting the league’s third-highest rush rate in neutral gamescripts (52.9%). Brissett will face a Falcons defense that is coughing up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (20.8), making him a viable second quarterback in superflex formats.

Running Back

Through three weeks of play, Nick Chubb is the RB2 in PPR leagues. After not finding the end zone in Week 1, Chubb has scored four touchdowns over the last two weeks, as he continues to play like the best running back in the NFL. Chubb’s 26 forced missed tackles lead the league, while his six runs of 15 yards or more are tied for the most in football. He is breaking a tackle every 7.8 rushing attempts and should continue to shine against an Atlanta defense that is allowing the second-most points (2.70), fifth-most yards (38.1) and sixth-most plays (6.5) per drive. Opposing offenses are also scoring points on 50% of drives against the Falcons, the third-highest rate in the NFL. With the Browns as 2.5-point favorites, this should be another game where Chubb sees 20-plus carries. He’s a rock-solid RB1.

Kareem Hunt, meanwhile, is still plenty involved to warrant low-end RB2/high-end flex consideration. He touched the ball 15 times last Thursday against the Steelers, while logging 44% of the snaps. The Browns also gave Hunt three consecutive chances to find the end zone from inside the 5-yard line, but he couldn’t score. He has two carries from inside the 5-yard line on the season and is averaging a strong 15 touches per game through three weeks.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper has now recorded consecutive 100-yard outings, his first time doing so since 2016. As expected, Cooper is the clear WR1 in this Cleveland offense, averaging nine targets per game, while sporting an awesome 30.6% target share. He should continue to see 27-35% of Cleveland’s targets on a weekly basis and faces an Atlanta defense that is struggling right now. Even star defensive back A.J. Terrell is off to a slow start, already allowing five touchdowns in coverage through three weeks. The Falcons are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and with Cooper heading to the dome in Atlanta, I like him even more. Since the 2018 campaign, Cooper is averaging 17.7 PPR points, 79.7 receiving yards, 5.45 receptions and 0.58 receiving touchdowns per game in 29 contests indoors, compared to 13.7 PPR points per game outdoors. Consider Cooper a low-end WR2 ahead of this contest.

Tight End

It took a few weeks, but we finally saw the huge game from David Njoku. The talented tight end was amazing Thursday, hauling in 9-of-10 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers. He played about 88% of the snaps and ran a route on 82% of dropbacks. Njoku is now sporting a solid 18% target share, a top-eight rate among tight ends. Look for him to keep it going against an Atlanta defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points (17.2), fourth-most receptions (6.3) and fifth-most receiving yards (73.7) per game to opposing tight ends so far this season.

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

Total: 50, DET -4.5
Pace: DET: 27.14 sec/snap (12th), SEA: 27.92 sec/snap (17th)

What to watch for: D’Andre Swift is dealing with a shoulder injury and will likely miss a few games. Amon-Ra St. Brown is also dealing with an ankle injury that is considered minor, though it could potentially force him to miss this game.

Lions

Quarterback

If you are looking for a quarterback to potentially stream this week, you should once again consider Jared Goff. We are seeing Goff take more shots down the field in his second season with the Lions, as his intended air yards per pass attempt has climbed from a league-worst 6.4 in 2021 to 8.5 so far in 2022, the eighth-highest mark among qualified quarterbacks. He is averaging a respectable 19 fantasy points per game and now faces a bad Seattle secondary that is surrendering a league-worst 8.8 yards per pass attempt so far this season. The Seahawks are also allowing teams to score points on 51.9% of drives, the second-highest rate in the NFL, while Seattle is also coughing up 7.3 plays per drive, the most in the league. Meanwhile, nearly 29% of Goff’s pass attempts have come off play-action, which bodes well for this matchup. Seattle has allowed the following production to quarterbacks off play-action so far this season:

• Week 1: Russell Wilson: 9-of-13, 102 yards
• Week 2: Jimmy Garoppolo: 4-of-4, 63 yards, 1 TD, 15.8 YPA
• Week 3: Marcus Mariota: 9-of-13, 160 yards, 12.3 YPA

Running Back

For the second straight week, D’Andre Swift was limited for the Lions, apparently picking up a shoulder injury. Between that and his ankle issue, it seems likely that Swift not only misses this game but is held out until after Detroit’s Week 6 bye. Assuming that is the case, Jamaal Williams becomes a guaranteed top-24 running back. He was great last week, rushing for 87 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 20 carries. Williams’ five rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line are the second most in football; he’s seen 100% of Detroit’s carries from that part of the field. With Swift sidelined, Williams will once again see 17-20 touches against a Seattle run defense that is allowing 157 rushing yards per game, 4.9 yards per attempt and five touchdowns on the ground. They just allowed Cordarrelle Patterson to record four different runs of 15 yards or more last week, and we know the Lions are elite in terms of generating yards before contact, which tells me Williams should be able to get to the second level with relative ease in this spot. 

Wide Receiver

We need to keep an eye on the status of Amon-Ra St. Brown this week. He suffered an ankle injury last week — he did return to the game, but his status for Week 4 is up in the air. The Lions may want to play it safe with their star wide receiver. Somehow, St. Brown didn’t see double-digit targets Sunday, but his floor remains very high, as he caught six passes for 73 yards. If he’s active, you are obviously starting St. Brown, especially against a bad Seattle secondary that is starting multiple rookies, including Coby Bryant, who has allowed a reception every 5.8 coverage snaps from the slot, one of the eight worst rates in the league. He is also allowing a perfect passer rating (158.3) in slot coverage, which is great for St. Brown, who is lining up from the slot 66% of the time so far this season.

If St. Brown is unable to play, both D.J. Chark and Josh Reynolds would see a bump. Reynolds was productive last week, catching 6-of-10 targets for 96 yards and if St. Brown and his 30.5% target share are unavailable, Reynolds should soak up six or seven targets pretty easily. Seattle is also second in the league in missed tackles (21), which gives Reynolds and Chark chances to make plays once the ball is in their hands.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson found the end zone last week, though he only saw four targets and posted 18 receiving yards. It is difficult to bench Hockenson given the state of the tight end position, while he’ll obviously see a massive boost in targets if St. Brown is sidelined. He’d more than likely lead the Lions in targets if St. Brown is inactive and should be in line for a strong game against a bad Seahawks defense that is coughing up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends so far this season (12.07).

Seahawks

Quarterback

Are the Seahawks no longer establishing the run? Prior to Week 3, head coach Pete Carroll stated that Seattle would open up the offense more. That happened, as Geno Smith attempted 44 passes. He completed 32 passes for 325 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an interception. Seattle appears to be passing the football more on early downs this season (an attempt to troll Russell Wilson?). But Smith is a legitimate streaming candidate against the Lions this weekend. Detroit is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season (23.9), allowing multiple touchdowns to all three quarterbacks they have faced. The Lions are also coughing up the fifth-most points per drive in the league (2.35).

Running Back

Can we finally trust Rashaad Penny? I’d like to, as this is a favorable matchup. Penny logged 69% of the snaps in Week 3, carrying the ball 14 times for 66 yards. Penny was one again efficient, and it was interesting to see Kenneth Walker play just nine offensive snaps. The Lions have allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs so far this season (6), and no team is allowing more fantasy points per game to the position. Detroit has also been the league’s worst red zone defense to this point, allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 10-of-11 red zone trips. There is still some uncertainty in this backfield, while Penny is not going to play much at all on passing downs, but he has upside as a flex play in this stellar matchup.

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf is coming off a solid game, catching five passes for 64 yards and a touchdown. He was targeted 12 times, giving him a solid 25 targets on the season, sporting a solid 25% target share through three weeks. Metcalf’s aDOT is down from 13.1 yards in 2021 to 10.1 so far in 2022, and he’s only seen three targets of 20-plus yards down the field. The Lions continue to play more man coverage than essentially any team in football, which means Metcalf will see plenty of single coverage in this game. Per PlayerProfiler, Metcalf ranked third in target rate (33.9%) and fifth in fantasy points per target (2.45) against man coverage last season. Detroit defensive back Jeff Okudah has been outstanding so far this season, limiting Justin Jefferson, DeVonta Smith and Terry McLaurin to very minimal production in coverage. Metcalf remains a high-end WR3 for this week.

Tyler Lockett is also a high-end WR3. He’s now seen double-digit targets in back-to-back games, as he and Metcalf have combined to see just over 50% of Seattle’s total targets through three weeks. Lockett is playing out of the slot around 47% of the time so far this season, while the Lions have given it up from the slot in the early going. They just allowed three catches for 41 yards and a touchdown to K.J. Osborn out of the slot last week and if Seattle continues to throw the ball over expectation, Lockett should continue to see 7-10 targets on a weekly basis.

Tight End

The Seahawks continue to use three tight ends, with Will Dissly slightly in the lead. Dissly found the end zone last week but was only targeted three times and hasn’t seen more than three targets in a game this season. Both Dissly and Noah Fant ran 22 pass routes last week, sporting route participation rates of under 50%. Thanks, but no thanks.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

Total: 42.5, DAL -3
Pace: DAL: 26.79 sec/snap (10th), WAS: 28.05 sec/snap (19th)

What to watch for: Michael Gallup came close to making his 2022 debut last week. If he plays in Week 4, he’ll surely be limited.

Cowboys

Quarterback

Cooper Rush has been solid in place of Dak Prescott over the last two weeks, but not good enough to warrant consideration in fantasy leagues. He’s thrown for 215 and 235 passing yards and has done a great job of limiting turnovers. Interestingly enough, Dallas has run a lot of play-action lately, as Rush is sporting a 33.8% dropback rate off play-action over the last two weeks, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL during that span. Washington’s pass defense is really, really bad, allowing the third-highest passing touchdown rate (7.2%), while also allowing the third-most yards per attempt (7.8), so it wouldn’t shock me to see Rush have a third solid game in a row.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott still led the Dallas backfield in snaps Monday, but the discrepancy in touches is starting to shrink. Elliott carried the ball 15 times for 73 yards and a touchdown against the Giants, while Tony Pollard rushed for 105 yards on 13 carries. It was the second consecutive game where Pollard saw at least 12 touches, which is starting to put him in the Kareem Hunt/AJ Dillon territory for fantasy, RB3/flex range. It is entirely possible that both Dallas running backs can get to the second level against the Commanders, who are allowing 5.4 yards per rush attempt so far this season, while around 20% of the runs against Washington have gone for at least 10 yards. We’re still seeing Pollard and Elliott on the field together for around 10 snaps per game, but Pollard is actually starting to cut into Elliott’s short-yardage work. Both players have three red zone carries this year, while Elliott has three carries inside of the 10-yard line to Pollard’s two. I’d consider Elliott a low-end RB2 and Pollard a viable flex option here.

Wide receiver

CeeDee Lamb has now seen target totals of 11, 11 and 12 through three weeks, sporting a massive 34% target share, one of the highest rates in the league. He caught eight passes for 87 yards and a touchdown against the Giants on Monday, despite seeing shadow coverage from Adoree’ Jackson for much of the game. Despite the panic over Lamb once Dak Prescott got hurt, the third-year wideout has been just fine alongside Cooper Rush and now gets a great matchup with a bad Washington secondary. The Commanders are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Lamb will see coverage from Kendall Fuller in this game, who is struggling to start the season. Fuller is allowing the seventh-most receptions (22), eighth-most receptions (14) and second-most receiving yards (260) in coverage this year, while also allowing two touchdowns and a 134.7 passer rating. Continue to start Lamb with plenty of confidence this week.

If Michael Gallup is once again ruled out, Noah Brown once again becomes a viable WR3 in deep leagues. In two games with Rush under center, Brown has hauled in 10-of-12 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown. He has been a full-time player and could continue to produce against a very vulnerable Washington secondary. 

Tight End

Dalton Schultz missed Monday’s game with a PCL injury. In his absence, both Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot split time at tight end, though you should not consider either player if Schultz is once again ruled out. If Schultz returns to the lineup, you are most likely starting him as a mid-range TE1. 

Commanders

Quarterback

After two huge fantasy outings to start the season, Carson Wentz turned back into a pumpkin against the Eagles in Week 3. Philadelphia’s pass rush set the tone for this game, as Wentz was under pressure on 42% of his dropbacks, getting sacked nine (!) times. Now he has to face a Cowboys pass rush that just sacked Daniel Jones five times, pressuring him on over 55% of his dropbacks in Week 3. Volume should remain on Wentz’s side, however, as the Commanders are dropping back to pass 65% of the time on early downs so far this season, one of the highest rates in the NFL. Still, Dallas’ pass rush is very tough, while the Cowboys’ 2.0% passing touchdown rate allowed is the third-lowest rate in football. I’d look elsewhere at quarterback this week.

Quarterbacks I’d start over Wentz: Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff

Running Back

Antonio Gibson salvaged his day with a late touchdown last week, giving him a rushing touchdown in two straight games. After seeing 27 pass routes and eight targets in Week 1, Gibson has run just 35 pass routes and seen five targets over the last two weeks combined, as J.D. McKissic is back to running more routes and dominating snaps on third downs. In a game where the Commanders were behind early and often, McKissic outsnapped Gibson last week. Brian Robinson Jr. is eligible to return in Week 5, potentially making this the final week where Gibson will see 12-15 touches. This is a solid matchup for Gibson, as 43.5% of the yardage surrendered by the Cowboys so far this season have come via the run, the third-highest rate in the NFL. Gibson also currently leads the league with six carries from inside the 5-yard line, so there is still some touchdown equity to be had. He’s a low-end RB2.

Wide Receiver

In a game where the Commanders offense seemingly couldn’t do anything, it was nice to see Terry McLaurin still record 102 receiving yards on nine targets. McLaurin continues to see a ton of usage down the field — his 15.3-yard aDOT is the ninth-highest mark among qualified wide receivers, and just over 26% of his targets have come 20 yards or more down the field. It’ll be interesting to see if Trevon Diggs follows McLaurin in this game, as he shadowed him on 96% and 78% of his routes in two meetings during the 2021 season. Of course, we know that Diggs is going to take risks in coverage, which was a huge reason why he allowed the most receiving yards in coverage a season ago. In Washington’s pass-happy offense, McLaurin remains a low-end WR2 against the Cowboys.

Curtis Samuel once again led Washington in targets last week with 10. Through three games, he is averaging 10 targets per game, while sporting a healthy 24% target share. Washington continues to use Samuel all over the formation, as he’s lining up out of the slot 68.3% of the time so far this season, while lining up out of the backfield 15 times. Samuel remains among the league-leaders in pre-snap motion, which tends to lead to targets more often than not and while he has zero downfield usage in this offense (3.3-yard aDOT), his floor looks to be pretty high right now. He’s a solid WR3.

Finally, Jahan Dotson is likely going to have the most variance on a weekly basis among the three Washington wideouts. Like McLaurin, Dotson is seeing a lot of work down the field, sporting a 14.9-yard aDOT, while 31.3% of his targets have come 20 yards or more down the field. This isn’t a great matchup, however, as if Wentz is under pressure a lot, he won’t have time to target Dotson deep down the field. The Cowboys are also allowing the fourth-lowest yards per attempt in football (6.1), and no team in the NFL is allowing fewer total air yards than Dallas’ 216.

Tight End

Logan Thomas had a quiet game against the Eagles last week, but the overall involvement is encouraging. Thomas played 65% of the snaps and ran a pass route on nearly 66% of Washington’s dropbacks. He only caught two passes for five yards, as the Commanders offense couldn’t sustain drives. I’m still willing to chase his usage and involvement in a pass-first offense.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans

Total: 44, LAC -5
Pace: HOU: 25.92 sec/snap (7th), LAC: 27.91 sec/snap (16th)

What to watch for: Injuries are piling up for the Chargers. OT Rashawn Slater will miss the remainder of the season with a biceps injury, while Joey Bosa will miss time with a groin injury. We also have to see if Keenan Allen (hamstring) returns to the lineup.

Texans

Quarterback

Davis Mills was really solid down the stretch of last season, but he hasn’t been too great so far during his sophomore campaign. The Chargers defense is dealing with injuries right now, as Joey Bosa will miss some time on IR, while J.C. Jackson is questionable to play. We did just see Trevor Lawrence throw for 262 yards and three scores against the Chargers last week, but Mills simply isn’t a quarterback that should be on your radar in fantasy right now.

Running Back

For the second consecutive week, Dameon Pierce operated as the lead back for the Texans. Pierce played just under 60% of the snaps, carrying the football 20 times for 80 yards and a touchdown. Rex Burkhead still played most of the third down and two-minute snaps, which will be an issue when the Texans fall behind in games. However, through three weeks, Houston has been competitive, sporting an average scoring margin of -3.3. At home, against a banged-up Chargers team, I once again think the Texans can keep this game close, which is good for Pierce. The Chargers run defense is struggling for the second consecutive season, allowing 4.6 yards per carry. They also just allowed 100 yards and a touchdown to James Robinson last week. Pierce is a viable RB2 once again this weekend.

Wide Receiver

I expected a great game from Brandin Cooks last week, but it didn’t happen. The veteran wideout caught just two passes for 22 yards, though he was targeted seven times. Through three weeks, Cooks’ volume hasn’t gone anywhere, as he’s been targeted 29 times, averaging 9.6 looks per game, while sporting an overall target share of 28%. This matchup against the Chargers is not easy, as Los Angeles could have J.C. Jackson back and already have a talented secondary with Asante Samuel and Derwin James. However, Cooks is as likely as almost any wide receiver in football to see double-digit targets, which keeps him firmly in the high-end WR3 range. According to the FTN Fantasy Expected Fantasy Points tool, Cooks has the highest difference among all wide receivers in fantasy points and expected fantasy points, which means that as long as he continues to see the volume he’s seeing, the fantasy points are going to follow.

Tight End

I will not be starting any tight ends from the Houston Texans in fantasy football for the foreseeable future.

Chargers

Quarterback

Despite dealing with a rib injury, Justin Herbert was active Sunday against the Jaguars. He completed just 25-of-45 passes for 297 yards and a touchdown, while losing a fumble and throwing an interception. The good news? Herbert didn’t suffer any setbacks in the game. The bad news? His offensive line did. Star offensive tackle Rashawn Slater will likely miss the remainder of the season, which is a huge blow to this offensive line. Hopefully the Chargers get Keenan Allen back in the lineup but regardless, it is unlikely that you are benching Herbert. The Texans pass defense has been improved so far this season, but they have also faced the 11th-fewest passing attempts per game so far (32.7). Herbert was under pressure on nearly 43% of his dropbacks last week, so let’s hope the offensive line can hold up this week.

Running Back

It has been a rough start to the season for Austin Ekeler, who has yet to find the end zone. And for the second consecutive week, Ekeler was saved by a handful of targets late in the game. The 17 targets and 18 receptions over the last two weeks look good on the surface but seven of those targets have come on the team’s final two drives of the game in catch-up mode. Ekeler continues to run more routes than any Chargers running back but Sony Michel and Joshua Kelley continue to eat into his short-yardage work. Ekeler has yet to record a carry from inside the 5-yard line this season — in fact, he hasn’t seen one inside the 10. Ekeler scored 20 touchdowns last season, and while we knew the regression was going to hit, I didn’t think it would be due to lack of opportunity. The Los Angeles’ ground attack has struggled to get going so far, as Ekeler’s longest run has gone for eight yards. This should be the get-right spot, facing a Houston Texans defense that leads the league in missed tackles (31), while allowing over 200 rushing yards per game. They have already allowed two running backs to rush for 100 yards. If Ekeler doesn’t break out in this game, I’ll officially be worried.

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury but is expected to practice this week. If he is active, Allen is starting on your fantasy team, especially in a matchup against the Texans. Slot defensive back Desmond King is allowing 0.28 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season, to go along with a 68% catch rate. Mike Williams, meanwhile, had a quiet Week 3 outing but he did find the end zone. Williams will see plenty of coverage from Steven Nelson in this game, who is 5-foot-10 and 197 pounds (Williams stands at 6-4, 220). If Allen can’t return to the lineup, Williams is a top-15 wide receiver, but even if he is active, Williams remains a top-20 wideout.

Finally, keep an eye on Joshua Palmer. He caught 6-of-9 targets for 99 yards Sunday — over his last four games with either Allen or Williams out of the Chargers lineup, Palmer is averaging 7.5 targets, 5.0 receptions, 60 receiving yards and 15.5 PPR points per game. Over the last two weeks, Palmer has played over 90% of the snaps and has run a route on over 90% of Los Angeles’ dropbacks. If Allen remains sidelined, Palmer would be a viable WR3 in fantasy.

Joshua Palmer’s last four games without Keenan Allen or Mike Williams

Tight End

Gerald Everett had a quiet game Sunday but still saw a respectable six targets. Even if Allen returns this week, Everett should remain in the TE12-TE15 range, especially since a small dip in targets isn’t the end of the world for Everett, who currently ranks third among tight ends with at least 10 receptions in yards after catch per reception (7.5). That bodes well against a Texans defense that leads the NFL in missed tackles.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Total: 42.5, IND -3.5
Pace: IND: 27.68 sec/snap (14th), TEN: 30.7 sec/snap (31st)

What to watch for: Will Shaquille Leonard finally make his 2022 debut?

Colts

Quarterback

It wasn’t pretty, but Matt Ryan did just enough for the Colts to upset the Chiefs last week, throwing for 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while losing a pair of fumbles. Ryan certainly hasn’t been anything special so far, but he’s 100% on the streaming radar against a weak Tennessee secondary that can be had. So far this season, the Titans are coughing up the highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL at 7.5%, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (22.57). Tennessee is tied with the Commanders for the most passing scores allowed so far this season (8), while 80% of the touchdowns scored against this defense have come through the air, one of the highest rates in the league. If you missed out on Trevor Lawrence this week, Ryan is still a solid streaming option in a plus matchup.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor has put together consecutive underwhelming games, but it was good to see the Colts get back to feeding him the ball last week. Taylor touched the ball 24 times and despite only seeing 10 touches in Week 2, he is now averaging a strong 23 touches per game through three weeks. It has been nice to see Taylor see more work on third downs so far this season and he should see 20-plus touches once again against a Tennessee defense that is surrendering a whopping 5.8 yards per carry, while also allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (145.0). You are obviously keeping Taylor in your starting lineup. (He did miss practice Wednesday — his first missed practice ever — but unless more damning news comes out about his status, we aren’t concerned.)

Meanwhile, Nyheim Hines has seen consistent targets so far this season. Through three weeks, Hines has seen target totals of 6, 5 and 6, as his 15.6% target share currently ranks ninth among all running backs in the league. Hines has 15 receptions through three games, which is enough work to keep him on the flex radar in deep PPR leagues.

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman missed Week 2 with a quad injury but returned to his massive role in Week 3. Pittman caught 8-of-9 targets for 72 yards, giving him 22 targets through two games. In his two games, Pittman has posted target shares of 27% and 25% and now he gets one of the best matchups of the week, facing a Tennessee secondary that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points, fourth-most receiving yards (204.7) and most touchdowns (2.0) to opposing wide receivers. Pittman will see primary coverage from Kristian Fulton, who has been getting left on an island in coverage so far this season. Tennessee has allowed two different wide receivers to reach 100-plus yards against them. One was Stefon Diggs, which is understandable. But the second was Mack Hollins, who torched the Titans to the tune of eight catches, 158 yards and a touchdown last week. The Titans are also allowing 10.0 yards per target to opposing wide receivers, making Pittman a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 ahead of this AFC South matchup.

Tight End

Don’t add Jelani Woods, and don’t start any tight ends from the Colts in fantasy. Yes, Woods found the end zone twice against the Chiefs, but he only ran 11 pass routes and continues to play in a committee with Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson, who both played more snaps than Woods.

Titans

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill had a solid bounceback performance last week, putting up 264 yards and a touchdown and adding a rushing score. It was a one-yard sneak into the end zone from Tannehill, and it almost certainly won’t be the last time he scores a rushing touchdown this season. He’s scored seven rushing touchdowns over his last two seasons in Tennessee but even still, I’m not too excited about starting Tannehill in fantasy this week. The Colts just did a good job against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last week, and Tannehill’s upside is ultimately limited by his lack of volume. Through three weeks, he is averaging just 26.6 passing attempts per game.

Running Back

There were a lot of stunning developments last week, but perhaps the most shocking was Derrick Henry’s usage in the passing game. Henry caught 5-of-6 targets for 58 yards, the second-most receptions and targets in a game in his career. It is notable, especially when you consider that Henry was averaging 2.25 receptions per game before suffering his foot injury last year. He was on pace to shatter his career-high in receiving totals and if the Titans are going to get him more involved in the passing game, it could be huge for his fantasy potential. I actually don’t love this matchup for Henry, as the Colts have been a massive pass funnel this season. Through three games, just 24.4% of the yardage and 28.5% of the touchdowns against Indianapolis have come on the ground, the third- and 11th-lowest rates in the NFL. Of course, Henry should still see 20 touches and is an obvious RB1.

Wide Receiver

While the production wasn’t there Sunday, the involvement and opportunities continue to rise for Treylon Burks. He led the Titans with 27 pass routes in Week 3 (on 28 dropbacks). His snap share has increased every week this season, and it feels like only a matter of time before Burks absolutely smashes. It could easily be this week, as Burks will see coverage from Brandon Facyson, who is coughing up 0.34 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season, the second most among all defensive backs on this slate. He is also being targeted on nearly 20% of his coverage routes. With the Colts allowing the eighth-most yards after the catch in the NFL (375), as well as the 10th-highest passing touchdown rate (4.9%), this could be the breakout spot for Burks. I’d start him as a high-upside (but low-floor) WR3.

Robert Woods was strong last week, leading the Titans with four catches for 85 yards on nine targets. He’s still seeing plenty of playing time, but it is difficult to feel excited about starting him, especially in this low-volume passing offense. And if I am expecting a breakout performance from Burks, it is tough for Woods to also have a great game, especially considering how little the Titans throw the football to begin with.

Tight End

Austin Hooper is now playing behind Geoff Swaim, who scored a touchdown last week. Just like the Colts, you should not be starting a tight end from the Titans in fantasy football.

Chicago Bears @ New York Giants

Total: 39, NYG -3
Pace: NYG: 27.56 sec/snap (13th), CHI: 28.8 sec/snap (23rd)

What to watch for: David Montgomery left Week 3’s game with an injury and could miss some time. For the Giants, Sterling Shepard will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.

Giants

Quarterback

Daniel Jones is coming off a battle against the Cowboys. He was under pressure on over half of his dropbacks, as the Dallas pass rush dominated the line of scrimmage. Jones didn’t find the end zone and remains an uninspiring fantasy option, though he does continue to present some upside with his rushing ability. Jones rushed for an impressive 79 yards Monday and while he’s yet to reach the 200-yard passing mark in a game this season, he is at least averaging 41.6 rushing yards and 8.3 rushing attempts per game through three weeks. 

Running Back

The fantasy RB1 through three weeks, Saquon Barkley rushed for 81 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries Monday, while adding four receptions for 44 yards. Barkley is simply not coming off the field so far, logging just under 87% of the snaps, while handling 66-of-74 running backs touches (89%). Look for Barkley to keep it going against a struggling Chicago run defense that is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game so far this season (157), while also coughing up a rushing touchdown per game. Barkley is an easy top-three running back for Week 4 and most likely for the remainder of the season.

Wide Receiver

I don’t think you can start any wide receivers from the Giants right now. Unfortunately, Sterling Shepard suffered a torn ACL that will end his season. Meanwhile, Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson are dealing with injuries of their own, while Kenny Golladay is an absolute nonfactor. Entering Week 4, it is extremely likely that Richie James will be the highest-ranked wide receiver from the Giants. He’s seen at least five targets in all three games and is a very solid value play in DFS this weekend. James will see coverage from rookie defensive back Kyler Gordon, who has allowed 19 receptions on 24 targets for 326 yards and two touchdowns in coverage so far this season.

Tight End

The Giants are really looking for more production in the passing game right now, which means rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger has a chance to become a sleeper tight end in fantasy. He played 60% of the snaps Monday, hauling in 4-of-5 targets for 40 yards. I wouldn’t start him just yet, but he is absolutely a player to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks.

Bears

Quarterback

Through three weeks, the Chicago Bears are sporting the league’s lowest neutral-script passing rate (36.13%), and Justin Fields is averaging an insanely low 15 pass attempts per game. That is simply unheard of nowadays, which limits Fields’ upside as well as that of every pass-catcher in Chicago. Against a Giants defense that is blitzing at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (29.4%), it is difficult to even consider starting Fields in fantasy until the passing volume increases. Fields is averaging a healthy nine rushing attempts per game through three starts but there just isn’t enough upside here, especially in a low-total game. 

Running Back

After leaving Sunday’s game with an injury, David Montgomery is listed as day-to-day by the Bears. We’ll see if he can play Sunday, though it seems unlikely at the moment. If Montgomery is ruled out, Khalil Herbert will start at running back and dominate touches — he should be ranked as a top-18 fantasy running back for as long as Montgomery is sidelined. He essentially won the Bears the game last week, rushing for 157 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. We have seen a small sample size of Herbert operating as the lead back in Chicago, and overall, the results have been pretty strong. Take a look at Herbert’s last five games where he has played the majority of the snaps at running back for the Bears:

In these five games, Herbert averaged 21.8 touches, 111.4 total yards and 16.9 fantasy points per contest. He also averaged 4.6 yards per carry during his four starts a season ago and should be in line for plenty of work against a Giants defense that has now allowed consecutive 100-yard rushing games to Christian McCaffrey and Tony Pollard, while also allowing nearly 5.0 yards per carry to Ezekiel Elliott. If Montgomery is sidelined, start Herbert with confidence as a strong RB2.

Wide Receiver

Through three weeks, Darnell Mooney has four receptions for 27 yards on 11 targets. Chicago’s offense is not good, and they aren’t throwing the ball enough to make up for any lack of efficiency. And to make matters worse, Mooney is going to see coverage from Adoree’ Jackson, who is one of the best defensive backs in football right now. You simply can’t start Mooney right now and it is getting awfully difficult to even keep him on your roster.

Tight End

Well, we know Cole Kmet couldn’t get any worse. After failing to record a catch in Weeks 1 and 2, Kmet caught two passes for 40 yards in Week 3. However, you simply cannot start any pass-catchers from an offense that is calling pass less than 35% of the time so far this season. 

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 41, PIT -3.5
Pace: PIT: 26.37 sec/snap (8th), NYJ: 25.72 sec/snap (4th)

What to watch for: Jets head coach Robert Saleh expects Zach Wilson to make his season debut in Week 4. 

Steelers

Quarterback

While the results certainly weren’t anything to write home about, it was still at least encouraging to see Mitch Trubisky make more passes down the field last Thursday. After attempting 10 passes of 20 yards or more in Weeks 1 and 2, Trubisky attempted nine such passes in Week 3 alone. It still led to just 207 passing yards and zero touchdowns for Trubisky, who should remain nowhere near your fantasy rosters ahead of a Week 4 matchup with the Jets. Sure, the Jets are allowing the highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL at 7.5% but Trubisky just hasn’t been good enough to warrant fantasy consideration.

Running Back

Najee Harris found the end zone last week, but he once again struggled with efficiency. Harris still played 80% of the snaps on Thursday and touched the ball 18 times, but it is pretty evident that Harris is unlikely to live up to his first-round draft spot from the offseason. The Steelers offensive line is unsurprisingly among the worst teams in the league in generating yards before contact, while Harris’ usage in the passing game hasn’t been as high as it was during his rookie season. The Jets just shut down a running back in a similar situation in Joe Mixon last week, limiting him to just 24 rushing yards on 12 carries. You are still starting Harris as a low-end RB1, but expectations need to be held in check. Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren isn’t getting enough work to warrant consideration but in a waiver wire week led by Jamaal Williams and Khalil Herbert, Warren could be a very underrated addition to a fantasy roster, especially the teams with Harris.

Wide Receiver

Oh, look. Diontae Johnson saw double-digit targets. I am totally shocked.

It is 100% not surprising to see Johnson get 10-plus targets again. He’s now seen double-digit targets in each of the first three games of this season, while accomplishing the feat in 15 of his last 19 overall games dating back to last season. Johnson continues to get open as easily as any wide receiver in the NFL, while Trubisky also throws to the left sideline as much as any signal caller in the NFL, which is where Johnson lines up over 50% of the time. 38% of Trubisky’s pass attempts have been to the intermediate left portion of the field, the second-highest rate in football. Johnson actually has a tough matchup with a revamped Jets secondary that has played well this season, though they have allowed touchdowns to Amari Cooper and Ja’Marr Chase in consecutive weeks, including over 100 yards to Cooper. Regardless, Johnson’s volume is too good, and you have to think he’ll find the end zone one of these weeks. Continue to start him as a low-end WR2.

Source: NFL Next Gen Stats

Entering Week 3, there was talk about the Steelers having to get George Pickens more involved. And it came to a fruition, as the rookie saw a career-high seven targets, hauling in three passes for 39 yards, including most likely the best catch anyone will see all year long. Still, Pickens is just too risky to start right now, as he could easily come back down to three or four targets, especially if we think tight end Pat Freiermuth will be more involved than he was this past week. Chase Claypool, meanwhile, seems likely to give you six targets every week because, well, Chase Claypool has literally given you six targets every week. The slot is the best area to attack this Jets secondary, as Michael Carter is allowing 0.26 fantasy points per coverage route, while Claypool is lining up out of the slot 86% of the time, one of the highest rates in the NFL. 

Tight End

After consecutive strong games to open the season, Pat Freiermuth was quiet Thursday against Cleveland, catching just two passes for 41 yards. His four targets were obviously a step back from what we had previously seen but Freiermuth still ranks fifth among all tight ends with a healthy 20.3% target share. The Jets have been good against tight ends so far this season, allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, including a game where they held Mark Andrews to 50 scoreless yards. Still, Freiermuth’s involvement is strong, keeping him in the low-end TE1 range most weeks.

Jets

Quarterback

After three weeks of watching 37-year-old Joe Flacco lead the NFL with 155 pass attempts, it appears the Jets are ready to get Zach Wilson back in the lineup. The Jets have sported a neutral-script pass rate of 68.3%, fourth highest in football. While I am not starting Wilson this week, it will be interesting to see how his return impacts the offense, especially the running backs out of the backfield. The Steelers defense is not what it once was, especially without T.J. Watt, so it’ll be interesting to see how much success the Jets offense can have here.

Running Back

For the first time this season, Breece Hall led the Jets backfield in snaps, logging 54% of the snaps. After Ty Johnson played a large role (mainly on passing downs) in Week 2, he only played one snap in Week 3. Hall once again saw a ton of targets, as the Jets kept throwing and throwing in catchup mode. He was targeted 11 times, catching six passes for 53 yards. Michael Carter, meanwhile, played over 45% of the snaps and led the team with 11 carries, though Hall played more snaps on third downs and in short-yardage situations, which are higher value touches for fantasy. Although Hall is slowly emerging as an RB2 candidate in fantasy, it will be interesting to see if the running backs remain heavily involved in the passing game with Wilson under center. Carter’s targets dropped in games Wilson started last season, as he’s an aggressive passer who takes shots down the field, but he is also 50 times more mobile than Flacco. 

I don’t expect the Jets running backs to continue seeing a ton of targets with Wilson under center, though I could easily be wrong. If this playing time continues, and even gradually increases, for Hall, he will be on the RB2 radar before we know it. The Steelers run defense was awful last year and continue to deal with injuries, making this a matchup you don’t have to fear. I’d consider both Hall and Carter flex plays, with Hall being the preferred running back.

Wide Receiver

Garrett Wilson left Sunday’s game with a rib injury but did return. He ultimately finished with six catches for 60 yards on 10 targets, as he has now seen 24 targets over the last two weeks. Flacco has been targeting Wilson at a massive rate over the last two weeks, so it’ll be interesting to see what the target distribution looks like with Wilson under center. But if the Jets continue to throw the football 40-50 times per game, it might not matter. Wilson has been targeted on around 30% of his routes so far this season and faces a struggling Steelers secondary that is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Pittsburgh has also allowed all three opposing top wideouts to post at least 95 receiving yards, making this a very strong spot for Wilson. He remains a WR3 play this week.

I also think this could be a breakout week for Elijah Moore. Despite the underwhelming production, Moore still leads all wide receivers in routes run through three weeks, while playing just over 90% of the offensive snaps. Moore is seeing his targets and routes come further down the field than Wilson, which could be a reason behind his underwhelming target and reception totals. With Wilson under center, it is entirely possible that Moore starts to see more work. 

Tight End

Because the Jets easily lead the NFL in pass attempts and dropbacks, tight end Tyler Conklin leads the position in routes run. He’s been very productive, ranking as a top-five tight end in fantasy through three weeks. Conklin is sporting a target share north of 17% and is dominating playing time over C.J. Uzomah in New York. While some may be concerned about what the Jets offense might look like with Wilson back, I’m not because if you don’t have a top-tier tight end in fantasy, you are essentially looking for pass routes. Conklin’s routes and playing time aren’t going anywhere for the time being and the Steelers defense was just eviscerated by David Njoku to the tune of nine catches for 89 yards and a touchdown.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 48, PHI -6.5
Pace: PHI: 25.67 sec/snap (3rd), JAC: 28.51 sec/snap (21st)

What to watch for: The Eagles’ ground attack against Jacksonville’s thriving run defense.

Eagles

Quarterback

You don’t need me to tell you to start Jalen Hurts, but I’m going to talk about how amazing he’s been anyway. Hurts has now recorded consecutive games of at least 330 passing yards, scoring six total touchdowns during that stretch. Philadelphia’s offense is seemingly doing whatever they want right now, as the Eagles currently rank second in the league in yards per play (6.4) and fifth in points per game (28.7). Hurts is averaging a gaudy 0.71 fantasy points per dropback so far this season, the second most in the league, and he’s also averaging over 12 rushing attempts per game. Hurts also ranks top-10 in deep ball completion rate (45.5%) and is going to continue to post monster numbers over the course of the season. Jacksonville’s defense has been very good to start the season, especially last week against Justin Herbert. That’s cool — Hurts is an easy top-four signal caller for Week 4.

Running Back

I was expecting a great game from Miles Sanders last week, but it didn’t happen, as he rushed for just 46 yards on 15 carries. The overall usage is still solid, as Sanders is averaging a solid 17 touches per game through three weeks. It is going to be tough for Sanders to score touchdowns compared to many other running backs in the league, as he’s only seen 25% of the Eagles’ carries from inside the 5-yard line so far this season (Hurts has four carries from that part of the field). However, it isn’t easy to find running backs that are going to see 15-17 touches on a weekly basis, which keeps Sanders in the low-end RB2 range for me. Keep in mind, however, that I am tempering expectations this week, as the Jaguars run defense has been elite so far this season. Despite facing Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor and Antonio Gibson, just 17.9% of the yardage allowed by the Jaguars has come via the run, easily the lowest rate in the NFL. That doesn’t bode well for Sanders, who relies on huge runs and large rushing yard totals. 

Wide Receiver

DeVonta Smith is coming off a huge game against Washington, hauling in eight passes for 169 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. He consistently made plays down the field, recording receptions of 45, 44 and 31 yards. Smith was among the league leaders in FTN’s created receptions last season, which are catches that require exceptional body control, acrobatics or hands. That was clearly on display last week and Smith has been heavily involved since his quiet Week 1 outing, catching 15-of-19 targets for 249 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. Against a pass funnel Jacksonville defense, Smith is a rock-solid WR3 that clearly has plenty of upside, especially if the Eagles go pass-heavy in this game.

Of course, A.J. Brown is obviously a must-start wide receiver and a low-end WR1. He scored his first touchdown of the season last week, as Brown continues to open up this entire Eagles offense with his presence on crossing routes in the middle of the field. Through three weeks, his 33.3% target share is the fourth-highest mark among all wide receivers. So far this season, 100% of the touchdowns scored against the Jaguars have come via the pass, while 82% of the yardage against Jacksonville have come through the air, the highest rate in the league.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert found the end zone last week and although his 14 targets through three weeks are a little underwhelming, he remains one of the most efficient tight ends in all of football to make up for it. Goedert currently ranks top-three among all tight ends in yards per route run, while his 12.2 yards after the catch per reception not only rank first among all tight ends, but also rank third in the entire NFL. And according to PlayerProfiler, Goedert is averaging 2.41 fantasy points per target, the second-best mark among all tight ends. Continue to start him with confidence.

Jaguars

Quarterback

Over the last two weeks, Trevor Lawrence has been one of the best quarterbacks in football. During that span, Lawrence has completed over 77% of his passes, throwing for 497 yards and five touchdowns. The second-year signal caller has been fantastic alongside new head coach Doug Pederson, who has implemented more of a quick-hitting, West Coast-style offense. Through three weeks, Lawrence is averaging 2.41 seconds to throw, the seventh-fastest rate in the league, down from 2.70 last season. Jacksonville has added way more pre-snap motion this season, which has also benefited Lawrence. As a result of this change of scheme, Lawrence has only been sacked twice, which will be important against a tough Philadelphia defensive line that is sporting the league’s seventh-highest pressure rate (27.8%). Lawrence is clearly ascending and could easily finish as a top-12 signal caller the rest of the season. But in this spot, I still have him as a high-end QB2.

Running Back

I feel like we should be talking more about what James Robinson is doing right now.

After coming back from a torn Achilles, Robinson is currently the fantasy RB3. He has scored a touchdown in all three games to start the season and once again outsnapped Travis Etienne. Robinson saw 17 carries to Etienne’s 13 Sunday, though for the second consecutive week, four or five of Etienne’s attempts came on the final drive of the game in a blowout win. That is the other factor here that favors Robinson. It is early but the Jaguars look like a very solid football team, which will lead to far less negative gamescripts. Through three weeks, Jacksonville currently ranks fourth in the NFL in plays when leading by at least three points (107), which has helped Robinson average 20 carries per game over the last two games. And very, very quietly, the Jaguars are tied for the lead league in red zone scoring attempts per game (4.3), while ranking eighth in plays (6.4), 10th in yards (34.2) and sixth in points (2.55) per drive. The Eagles run defense is tough but they have allowed four touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, the second-most in the league. Robinson is a must-start running back.

Etienne, meanwhile, is difficult to trust because the Jaguars haven’t been trailing in games like many expected entering the season. He’s also yet to see a carry from inside the 5-yard line so far this season. This matchup is interesting, as the way the Eagles defense is constructed, the middle of the field and the flats are where you’ll find more success in the passing game. In 2021, Philadelphia allowed the third-most receptions (6.8) and targets (8.2) per game to opposing backfields. And so far in 2022, running backs are averaging the seventh-most receptions (6.0) and fourth-most targets (8.7) per game against the Eagles. Etienne remains a low-end flex play right now.

Wide Receiver

Christian Kirk just continues to produce. He has caught six passes in all three games to start the season, while scoring three touchdowns. Kirk is averaging a healthy nine targets per game and as I highlighted last week, I love the way the Jaguars are using him. Kirk is lining up in the slot 77% of the time so far this season, while he’s also lined up in the backfield multiple times. Jacksonville has done a tremendous job of putting Kirk in favorable matchups against safeties and linebackers and he clearly has the best matchup among all Jaguars wideouts this week. He’ll primarily line up in the slot against Avonte Maddox, who is allowing 0.23 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season, along with a 75% catch rate. He remains a very solid WR2.

Zay Jones, meanwhile, is coming off a great game, catching 10-of-11 targets for 85 yards and a touchdown. He ran a route on 80% of dropbacks and with the Jaguars running more 11 personnel this season, both he and Marvin Jones are essentially always on the field. Zay Jones does have a tough matchup with Philadelphia’s perimeter defensive backs — it is unlikely he sees 11 targets again this week, but he is seeing enough playing time and usage to warrant flex consideration if you are in a tough spot. Marvin Jones, meanwhile, is in the same spot, though he will likely see more coverage from Darius Slay, who is a top-five defensive back in the NFL.

Tight End

In a game where seemingly everyone from Jacksonville’s offense produced, Evan Engram caught just one pass for nine yards. He had a touchdown called back, as he just couldn’t keep his feet inbounds, but the Chargers are a tough matchup for opposing tight ends. Look for him to be more involved against the Eagles, a team that coughed up the second-most fantasy points (14.29), most receptions (6.3) and third-most targets (8.1) per game to opposing tight ends. Targets tend to funnel toward the middle of the field against Philadelphia and it has been the case this season, as tight ends are averaging a healthy 7.3 targets per game against the Eagles. And while he had a quiet Week 3, Engram is still dominating playing time, as he logged 76% of the snaps and ran a route on 80% of dropbacks.

New England Patriots @ Green Bay Packers

Total: 40.5, GB -9.5
Pace: GB: 32.8 sec/snap (32nd), NE: 28.31 sec/snap (20th)

What to watch for: Mac Jones is dealing with a high ankle sprain and is going to miss time. Meanwhile, we’ll see if Jakobi Meyers can return to the lineup for the Patriots.

Packers

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers is coming off a fairly efficient game against Tampa Bay, completing 27-of-35 passes for 255 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Green Bay’s offense continues to heavily rely on the rushing attack and when they throw the football, the screen game has been a huge part of the passing game. Rodgers’ 20 pass attempts off screens are the second-most in the NFL, while his 19.4% dropback rate is the second-highest rate in football. This feels like a game where Rodgers won’t have to throw the ball more than 30 times, but it was nice to see him develop a strong rapport with rookie wideout Romeo Doubs. New England is allowing a 6.3% passing touchdown rate through three weeks, the fifth-worst rate in football. Rodgers remains a high-end QB2.

Running Back

Against Tampa Bay’s run defense, both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon failed to really get anything going last week. Jones touched the ball 15 times for 47 total yards, while Dillon recorded 38 total yards on 14 touches. Through three weeks, Jones is averaging 13.6 touches per game, while Dillon is averaging 16 touches per contest. Both players have 12 targets so far, sporting a target share of nearly 13%. Expect 15-18 touches from both running backs in Green Bay this week and as nearly 10-point home favorites, you could make the case this is more of a spot for Dillon, who has been getting carries late in games over Jones. You can run on the Patriots, who are allowing 4.8 yards per rush this season, while their 21 missed tackles are the fourth-most in football. 

Wide Receiver

Hopefully you added Romeo Doubs off waivers this week, as he could very easily be the top wideout in Green Bay going forward. He broke out in Week 3, hauling in all eight of his targets for 73 yards and a touchdown. Green Bay clearly had confidence in Doubs, as a lot of the plays they ran were designed for him. It started on the team’s opening drive, where Doubs was targeted three times, including a touchdown off a run-pass option from Rodgers. Through three weeks, Doubs ranks third in the league in screen receptions (5) and second in targets (6), so it isn’t as if Doubs is simply catching passes because Rodgers finds him when plays break down. Green Bay is starting to manufacture touches for the rookie and with Sammy Watkins on injured reserve and Christian Watson banged up, Doubs will continue to see plenty of opportunity. 

Allen Lazard, meanwhile, has now scored a touchdown for the second consecutive week, which really isn’t all that shocking. He’s seen an end zone target in both games he’s played this year, one season after ranking top-12 in end zone targets, despite playing alongside Davante Adams. Lazard played 90% of the snaps on Sunday, while running a route on about 89% of dropbacks. Green Bay loves to run these RPO plays when they get inside the 10-yard line, giving Lazard touchdown upside each and every week. Both Doubs and Lazard are viable WR3 plays this weekend against a vulnerable Patriots secondary that could be without Jalen Mills (hamstring). 

Tight End

Robert Tonyan’s playing time continues to rise. After logging 40% of the snaps in Week 2, Tonyan played 55% of the snaps on Sunday, seeing seven targets. He caught six passes for 37 yards and if the playing time continues to increase, Tonyan could easily post top-12 numbers alongside Rodgers. If you missed out on David Njoku, Tyler Conklin or even Evan Engram, Tonyan makes sense as a streaming tight end this week, especially against a Patriots defense that has already allowed four touchdowns to opposing tight ends, the most in the NFL.

Patriots

Quarterback

Mac Jones is dealing with a high ankle sprain and is doubtful for this week, likely out for a few weeks. In his absence, the Patriots will start veteran Brian Hoyer, who obviously shouldn’t be started in any fantasy leagues. Expect the Patriots to continue to rely on both running backs for as long as they can in this game.

Running Back

Rhamondre Stevenson has seen his snap share rise in every game this season and is coming off a game where he outsnapped Damien Harris 41-25. Stevenson was awesome against a tough Ravens run defense, rushing for 73 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, while adding four receptions for 28 yards. He is seventh among all running backs in routes run over the last two weeks, as Stevenson is taking over more of the work in the passing game with Ty Montgomery on injured reserve. Stevenson is playing in all of the two-minute drills and if the Patriots fall behind in this game, it would likely favor Stevenson over Harris. I’m starting Stevenson comfortably as a high-end RB3 in PPR leagues. Harris, meanwhile, should get 12-14 touches but if he doesn’t find the end zone, you are going to be disappointed.

Wide Receiver

It was already difficult to be excited about starting a Patriots wide receiver with Mac Jones under center, so it is unlikely the mood will change much with Brian Hoyer at quarterback. DeVante Parker is coming off an awesome game against the Ravens, hauling in five-of-10 targets for 156 yards. He made multiple plays down the field, recording receptions of 31, 40, 36 and 25 yards. The 10 targets are unlikely to be repeated if Jakobi Meyers returns to the lineup and if that is the case, I wouldn’t really want to start anyone from New England’s passing game. But if Meyers is out, Parker should see 7-10 targets again, while the matchup would be improved if Jaire Alexander (groin) can’t suit up for Green Bay.

Tight End

Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are playing 64.9% and 57.5% of the snaps, respectively, but we are seeing more plays where both tight ends are on the field for the Patriots. Henry’s red zone usage has fallen off compared to last season, though he did almost double Smith’s routes in Week 3. There are a handful of tight ends that have a role all to themselves that I’d feel more comfortable starting in fantasy.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

Total: 43, CAR -1.5
Pace: CAR: 23.92 sec/snap (1st), ARI: 25.84 sec/snap (6th)

What to watch for: The Cardinals are hopeful that Rondale Moore will make his season debut this weekend. A.J. Green, however, is unlikely to play.

Panthers

Quarterback

I seriously may have been wrong about Baker Mayfield this season. He has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL through three weeks, completing just 52% of passes, while his 65.3% off-target rate is the sixth-worst rate in the NFL. Could Week 4 finally be the week where Carolina’s passing game gets going? I mean, it is possible. The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in all of football, but will Mayfield be able to produce against the blitz? Arizona is blitzing 46.8% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. Mayfield, meanwhile, is sporting the league’s fourth-worst completion rate against the blitz (45.7%). He is also averaging just 5.9 yards per pass attempt against the play type. 

Running Back

The good news? Christian McCaffrey has rushed for at least 100 yards in each of his last two games. The bad news? McCaffrey has caught just 10 passes through three weeks, as his usage in the passing game has been way down compared to what we’ve seen over the years. This Carolina offense is broken right now, as the Panthers are averaging just 4.9 plays per drive, the second fewest in football, while no team is averaging less time per drive at 2:13. You are obviously still starting McCaffrey and hopefully this is the huge ceiling game we have been waiting for. Opposing offenses are scoring points on a whopping 57.1% of drives against the Cardinals this season, easily the highest rate in the league. Arizona is also allowing the most points (3.14), third-most yards (41.3) and eighth-most plays (6.4) per drive. 

It’s worth noting that McCaffrey missed practice Wednesday with a thigh injury, so keep a close eye on his status.

Wide Receiver

DJ Moore’s nightmare 2022 campaign continued in Week 3. He caught just one pass for two yards, despite being targeted six times. Under 67% of Moore’s targets have been deemed catchable so far this season, which is down from his 75.3% rate in 2021. Moore has seen exactly six targets in all three games to start the year and while a matchup with the Cardinals seems favorable, Arizona has surprisingly done really well against opposing top receivers dating back to last season. The Cardinals have been using Byron Murphy to shadow opposing receivers so far this year. Murphy shadowed Davante Adams on 79% of his routes in Week 1, holding him to just one catch for four yards, while Cooper Kupp had just four catches for 44 yards last week. Moore is still an incredible player but can’t be trusted as anything more than a WR3 right now.

It is also possible that Robbie Anderson ends up being shadowed by Murphy. When the Panthers played the Giants in Week 2, Anderson was shadowed on over 90% of his routes, as Anderson lines up out wide about 92% of the time. Anderson continues to play an every-down role and run a ton of routes, but this passing game just isn’t getting it done right now.

Tight End

Move along. Nothing to see here.

Cardinals

Quarterback

Speaking of broken offenses, Arizona’s isn’t looking much better. The Cardinals are averaging just 4.8 yards per play so far this season, the fourth-lowest mark in the league, while Kyler Murray has been under 6.0 yards per pass attempt in every game this season. I’m not entirely sure what Kliff Kingsbury is doing right now but it isn’t working, as Arizona has implemented minimal use of play-action and pre-snap motion. Murray ranks bottom-10 among qualified quarterbacks in play-action pass attempts, while Arizona also isn’t even calling designed rushing plays for him. This game should play fast, as it features two teams that rank inside the top-seven in pace and top-10 in no-huddle percentage, but it is difficult to feel great about Murray right now. He’s still a QB1 in fantasy but this offense desperately needs to add more creativity, while the return of DeAndre Hopkins wouldn’t hurt either. 

Running Back

James Conner played Sunday, and while his usage was somewhat limited after dealing with an ankle injury, he still played around 60% of the snaps, touched the ball 16 times and dominated the playing time in short-yardage situations. Per usual, Arizona is running a ton of screens, a few of which went to Conner last week, but he dropped two passes. But with the issues at wide receiver right now, Conner should continue to see 3-5 targets per week. Carolina’s run defense hasn’t been too strong so far this season, allowing 135 rushing yards per game. As long as he’s healthy, consider Conner a high-end RB2, with RB1 upside if Arizona’s offense gets it together.

Wide Receiver

With Murray setting a career-high in pass attempts last week (58), Marquise Brown saw an insane 17 targets, hauling in 14 for 140 yards. He’s seen 28 targets over the last two games — through three weeks, Brown has seen over 25% of Arizona’s targets, as well as an impressive 43% of the team’s air yards, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. It is still absolutely maddening that the Cardinals don’t move their wide receivers around the formation, which means Brown will see plenty of coverage from Jaycee Horn, an emerging defensive back in this league who is allowing just 0.07 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season, a top-five mark in football to this point. Still, Brown’s usage is amazing right now, and this game should be fast-paced. He’s a rock-solid WR2.

Could this be the final week for Greg Dortch? Rondale Moore could make his season debut, but with A.J. Green unlikely to play, perhaps three-wide sets will feature Brown, Moore and Dortch. Unfortunately, this is a tough matchup, as the Panthers were a top-five defense against opposing slot wide receivers last season and so far in 2022, they have been very strong against the position again. 

Tight End

Zach Ertz’s floor remains incredibly high, as he’s caught at least six passes and has seen double-digit targets in each of the last two games. Ertz has been targeted 25 times through three weeks, while his 19% target share ranks sixth among all tight ends so far this season. He should have scored a touchdown last week but couldn’t hang onto a pass in the back of the end zone, however, the opportunities are there, as Ertz has seen five targets from inside the 10-yard line this season, tied for the fifth-most in all of football. The veteran should continue to see 7-10 targets and is an easy top-seven fantasy tight end.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Total: 45.5, LV -2.5
Pace: LV: 26.49 sec/snap (9th), DEN: 28.05 sec/snap (18th)

What to watch for: Hunter Renfrow (concussion) did not play in Week 3 and has yet to clear the protocol.

Raiders

Quarterback

Derek Carr is coming off a strong game against the Titans, throwing for 303 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Raiders continue to throw the football quite a bit, as they still lead the entire league in neutral-script pass rate (74.4%), while also throwing the football about 72% of the time from the red zone, the fifth-highest rate in football. This is a tough matchup, however, as for as many issues their offense has, Denver’s defense has been stellar through three weeks. The Broncos are allowing the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.1), as well as the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (11.61). Teams are only scoring touchdowns on 25% of red zone trips against Denver so far this season, the lowest rate in the NFL. In this matchup, Carr is on the QB1/QB2 borderline for me.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs was questionable to play last week with an illness but made the trip to Tennessee and suited up. He carried the ball 13 times for 66 yards, while adding five receptions for an additional 31 yards on six targets. Jacobs and Brandon Bolden were the only Raiders running backs to see the field on offense in this game, while Jacobs played about 65% of the snaps. He should continue to see 13-17 touches every week, and if he finds the end zone, it’ll be great. There really isn’t anything special about this matchup but it is difficult to get away from Jacobs as a low-upside RB2 right now.

Wide Receiver

After Davante Adams’ huge Week 1 outing, things have slowed down over the last two weeks. During that span, Adams has scored twice, which is great, but he’s caught just 7-of-17 targets for 48 yards. It is early but just 50% of his targets have been deemed catchable, one of the lowest rates in all of football. Adams has at least seen six targets from inside the 10-yard line, the second most in the league, and we already discussed how pass-happy the Raiders have been from inside the red zone this season. I’d expect Pat Surtain to follow Adams for this game, which isn’t the easiest of matchups. However, Adams has seen 32% of the targets, a top rate in the league, and is obviously a must-start every week.

We have to keep an eye on the status of Hunter Renfrow, who missed last week’s game with a concussion. In his absence, Mack Hollins had a huge game, catching 8-of-10 targets for 158 yards and a touchdown. He’s now seen 18 targets over the past two weeks and would make for a viable WR3 if Renfrow can’t return to action in Week 4. If Renfrow is available, however, he’ll remain in the WR3 range. 

Tight End

Darren Waller left a lot of points on the table last week. He had a couple of bad drops that could have potentially led to touchdowns, ultimately finishing the game with just three receptions for 22 yards. This is a good matchup for Waller to get back on track, facing a Denver defense that is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points (12.47), sixth-most receptions (6.0) and seventh-most targets (8.0) per game to opposing tight ends this season. 

Broncos

Quarterback

Denver’s offense is a mess right now. Russell Wilson has just two touchdowns and one interception through three weeks of play, as he is taking some time getting acclimated to the new system. During his time in Seattle, Wilson would hold onto the ball, scramble around the pocket and throw deep passes down the field. The Seahawks would also get him outside of the pocket, which isn’t happening in Denver. Wilson currently ranks outside of the top-25 signal callers in fantasy points per dropback but if he’s going to finally get it going, it has to happen this week against a Raiders defense that is allowing the eighth-most points per drive (2.30). Las Vegas also just served as the band-aid to help fix a struggling Tennessee offense last week. I totally understand getting away from Wilson here, but I’d give him one more week.

Running Back

Once again, Javonte Williams looked great last week but was underutilized. Williams continues to break tackles at an absurd rate, one every 6.2 attempts, the second-best mark in the league. His 13 forced missed tackles are the sixth-most in the league, while six of his 37 rushing attempts have gone for 10 or more yards. The usage in the passing game has been strong, as Williams’ 19.6% target share ranks third among running backs, though a lot of that has to do with his 11-catch outing in Week 1. Despite still splitting work with Melvin Gordon, Williams is still averaging a solid 17.3 touches per game and if he was the true goal-line running back, Williams would be unbelievable. Unfortunately, Gordon has seen three carries from inside the 5-yard line so far this season, while Williams has seen just one such carry. This is a good matchup, as the Raiders are coughing up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (25.4), while also allowing the fourth-most receptions per game to running backs (7.0). 

Gordon, meanwhile, is averaging a solid 14 touches per game, which is more than enough to warrant flex consideration. And like we just mentioned, Gordon currently has the lead as the goal-line running back, which could bode well against a Las Vegas defense that is allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 8-of-10 red zone scoring trips so far this season, the third-worst rate in the NFL. 

Wide Receiver

Courtland Sutton is the clear WR1 in Denver. He’s been targeted 21 times over the last two weeks, hauling in 15 passes for over 200 yards. Sutton has yet to find the end zone but once Denver’s offense learns how to score touchdowns, a lot of those scores are headed Sutton’s way. Sutton has elite usage right now, sporting a 29% target share to go along with a whopping 46% share of the Broncos’ air yards, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. He’ll see coverage from Nate Hobbs, who has been good so far this season but is 5-foot-11 (Sutton is 6-3). Sutton is a very strong WR2 here.

I also really like this spot for Jerry Jeudy, who played last week but didn’t do much, catching just two passes for 17 yards. Jeudy is lining up out of the slot just over 70% of the time this season, which is great in a matchup against the Raiders, who have struggled to defend slot receivers this year. In Week 1. Las Vegas allowed nearly 50 yards and a touchdown to DeAndre Carter, followed by a touchdown reception and 55 yards from the slot to Greg Dortch in Week 2. Jeudy will see primary coverage from Amik Robertson, who is allowing a healthy 0.25 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season. I like Jeudy as a high-end WR3 in this AFC West showdown. 

Tight End

Albert Okwuegbunam played just 24-of-74 snaps Sunday night, as his usage and playing time have been pretty inconsistent to start the season. This is a really good matchup, as the Raiders have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in two-of-three games this year, while also coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position (13.7). Still, he is an extremely risky play with a pretty low floor.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 45, KC -1
Pace: TB: 28.67 sec/snap (22nd), KC: 27.73 sec/snap (15th)

What to watch for: Mike Evans will be back for Tampa Bay this week. Julio Jones is also expected to return to the lineup. 

Buccaneers

Quarterback

Tom Brady has yet to have a multi-touchdown game so far this season, as the Bucs have been relying on running the football and playing defense. Through three weeks, Tampa Bay is sporting one of the league’s highest rush rates on early downs. Reinforcements are on the way, however, as Mike Evans will be back, while Julio Jones is expected to return from a two-game absence. Chris Godwin is also starting to practice, putting him on track to return very soon. This might be the week where Brady returns to being a top-12 fantasy signal caller, facing a Chiefs defense that is allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 72.7% of red zone scoring trips so far this season, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Kansas City is also allowing the eighth-highest passing touchdown rate at 5.7%, so I expect Brady to have his first multi-touchdown game of the season on Sunday night, especially if most of his pass-catchers are healthy.

Running Back

Leonard Fournette is coming off consecutive tough outings, as the Tampa Bay offense has struggled. His usage is still elite, however, sporting the league’s third-highest opportunity share at 85.2%, while his 79 pass routes are fifth among all running backs. Fournette is averaging a healthy 22 touches per game and is coming off a Week 3 outing where he logged just over 90% of the snaps. His usage is amazing right now and if Tampa Bay’s offense gets back to full strength, there will be more red zone trips, which is great for Fournette, who hasn’t found the end zone yet. You are starting him as a top-10 running back without any hesitation.

Wide Receiver

After serving his one-game suspension, Mike Evans will be back for Week 3. We’ll see who else from this wide receiver room is with him, as Julio Jones is dealing with a partially torn MCL, while Chris Godwin continues to recover from a hamstring injury. Evans is obviously a must-start player, but I also want to once again illustrate just how great his numbers have been with Godwin out of the lineup as of late. Dating back to the 2020 season, Evans has played in nine games with Godwin inactive. During those contests, he is averaging 8.67 targets, six receptions, 84 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown and just over 21 PPR points per game. Evans will see coverage from Rashad Fenton for much of this game, who is allowing an 85% catch rate through three weeks.

Meanwhile, the rest of the wideouts are up in the air. If Godwin and Jones remain sidelined, you can go back to Russell Gage as a viable WR3 in deep leagues. He was great last week, hauling in 12-of-13 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. Of course, he won’t see a target share north of 30% with Evans back in the lineup but there is a path to Gage easily finishing second on this team in targets in Week 4. If Jones plays, however, it would have both players as WR3s if you are in trouble at wide receiver. I just worry about how effective Julio will be, as well as the possibility that he is limited. 

Tight End

Cameron Brate continues to dominate the playing time for Tampa Bay, coming off a game where he played over 89% of the snaps and ran a route on 84% of dropbacks. He was targeted six times, though his targets will vary on a weekly basis. There are still plenty of tight ends I’d prefer over Brate, but if you are desperate at the position, you could certainly do a lot worse this week. Kansas City did just allow a pair of touchdowns to rookie tight end Jelani Woods last week.

Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes is coming off a down game against a solid Colts defense, throwing for 262 yards and one touchdown, while also tossing a late interception. It is pretty clear that Mahomes’ weekly ceiling does not match that of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts, though he’s still a clear QB1. This is a tough matchup this week, facing a great Tampa Bay defense that is coughing up just 5.9 yards per attempt (second lowest), while also sporting the league’s third-highest interception rate (4.3%). Of course, Tampa Bay has been a blitz-heavy defense, doing so 32.6% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in the league, while Mahomes has been the best quarterback in all of football against the blitz over the last few seasons. And we saw what happened when Arizona blitzed him on over half of his dropbacks in Week 1. Mahomes responded by completing 16-of-23 passes for 143 yards and five touchdowns. Of course, Arizona’s defense isn’t close to Tampa Bay’s. Start Mahomes as you normally would, but this is a tough matchup.

Running Back

Clyde Edwards-Helaire did not record a single rushing yard in Week 3. He finished as the RB14 in fantasy.

After struggling to find the end zone for much of his first two seasons, Edwards-Helaire has now scored three touchdowns through the first three weeks of 2022. I recommended trading CEH last week and I still firmly believe that, as he continues to split work with Jerick McKinnon, who outsnapped Edwards-Helaire 33-25 last week. Both running backs carried the ball seven times against the Colts and through three weeks, Edwards-Helaire is averaging just 11.3 touches per game. 10-12 touches against Tampa Bay’s defense likely won’t be enough to get it done, though he has caught 12 passes through three weeks. Still, I’m honestly looking to bench Edwards-Helaire this week if possible.

Running backs I’d start over CEH this week: Kareem Hunt, AJ Dillon, Jeff Wilson, Khalil Herbert

Wide Receiver

JuJu Smith-Schuster had a solid bounceback week, catching five passes for 89 yards. He was targeted eight times, a massive uptick from his Week 2 usage. Smith-Schuster continues to play a ton of snaps and run a ton of routes, which is usually a recipe for success, especially when you are playing with Mahomes. He also draws the best individual matchup among Kansas City receivers, as Smith-Schuster will match up against Antoine Winfield, a safety who has been playing more slot defensive back for Tampa Bay so far this season. Smith-Schuster remains a solid WR3.

Meanwhile, it is pretty risky, but if you are hurting at wide receiver, you could do a lot worse than Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He’s playing a lot and has now seen seven targets in each of the last two games. We are seeing more intermediate usage from MVS, who is averaging just 6.5 yards before the catch per reception through three weeks of play, which ranks 74th in the entire NFL. Last season, for reference, Valdes-Scantling averaged about 11 yards before the catch per reception. MVS will line up against Carlton Davis, who is a solid defensive back, but he’s actually been the most targeted player in football through three weeks (28), while allowing a healthy 0.34 fantasy points per coverage route.

Tight End

Travis Kelce found the end zone last week but should have had two touchdowns. He’s been held under 60 yards in each of the last two games, though he’s still seeing over 22% of Kansas City’s targets, a top-five rate among all tight ends. You are obviously starting him, though it is fair to wonder how far the gap suddenly is between Kelce and Mark Andrews.

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

Total: 42, SF -1
Pace: SF: 30.52 sec/snap (30th), LAR: 29.92 sec/snap (29th)

What to watch for: San Francisco continues to deal with injuries, as All-Pro LT Trent Williams will miss 4-10 weeks with an ankle injury.

49ers

Quarterback

If your fantasy league awards points for head-scratching plays, Jimmy Garoppolo would be an easy QB1, just behind Carson Wentz. Garoppolo was awful during last Sunday’s battle of three-and-outs, completing just 18-of-29 passes for 211 yards, one touchdown, one interception, one fumble and one safety. He now has to face a tough Rams defense, which is already difficult enough, but he’ll be playing them without the presence of the best left tackle in the NFL in Trent Williams. It is safe to say you can find plenty of quarterbacks in better spots for Week 4.

Running Back

Jeff Wilson was one of the few bright spots for San Francisco last week, rushing for 75 yards on 12 carries. With Tyrion Davis-Price sidelined, Wilson handled most of the running back carries and he should continue to see 13-17 carries per game. There is nothing special about this matchup, as the Rams are allowing just 3.8 yards per rush this season, while just over 27% of the yards surrendered by this defense have come via the run, the seventh-highest rate in the league. Still, Wilson’s usage in a run-first offense is enough to warrant low-end RB2 consideration.

Wide Receiver

Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were both targeted eight times last week, with Aiyuk finding the end zone. Samuel saw 13 opportunities in the game (8 targets, 5 carries) and is now averaging 5.6 rushing attempts per game. As I have throughout the entire offseason, I view Samuel as a WR2 and given where he is utilized, it isn’t as if he is going to see an insane amount of attention from Jalen Ramsey. Aiyuk, meanwhile, has now seen eight targets in consecutive games, both of which have been played alongside Garoppolo. Outside of Ramsey, Los Angeles’ secondary is really, really banged up right now, making this matchup not as bad as it looks on the surface.

Tight End

After missing the first two games with a groin injury, George Kittle made his season debut last week. He caught 4-of-5 targets for 28 yards and was essentially a full-time player in his first game back, logging just over 91% of the snaps, while running a route on just under 80% of dropbacks. We know Kittle is asked to block as much as any premiere tight end in the league, something that could actually be a little more evident with Trent Williams out of the lineup. Of course, if you have been waiting to plug Kittle back into your lineup, you are obviously starting him.

Rams

Quarterback

The box score does not tell the entire story with Matthew Stafford last week. He played very well, but things just didn’t go his way. On the opening drive, Allen Robinson dropped an easy three-yard screen pass that would have led to a walk-in touchdown, while Cooper Kupp shockingly dropped an absolute dime thrown by Stafford in the corner of the end zone. As a result, Stafford finished the game with zero touchdown passes, but it was truly a bad beat. He has a tough matchup this week, facing a San Francisco defense that currently ranks second in the NFL in pressure rate (35.4%) and in two meetings against this defense during the regular season, Stafford scored 11.8 and 19.5 fantasy points. So far this season, San Francisco hasn’t played the greatest passing games (CHI, SEA, DEN) but are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (10.26). Stafford is a low-end QB1 for me this week.

Running Back

Here we go again. In the second week with Cam Akers actually part of the game plan, the Rams backfield was split. Akers continues to handle most of the carries and early-down work, while Darrell Henderson is running more routes, playing on third downs and seeing a slight edge in goal-line work. Akers lost a fumble last game, but head coach Sean McVay stated that if the Rams offense had to go back out on the field, the team would have gone right back to him. It was a goal-line fumble, for what it is worth, so it’ll be interesting to see if Henderson goes back to dominating the goal-line work. I’m still not overly excited about starting anyone from this backfield right now but if I had to choose, I would lean Akers. 

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp caught just four passes for 44 yards last week but salvaged his day with a 20-yard touchdown run on an end-around. It was his first time in 15 games where Kupp failed to record at least 90 receiving yards, and his fewest receiving yards in a game since Week 15 of 2020. You are obviously starting him every single week. Allen Robinson, meanwhile, continues to see red zone opportunities, as he’s seen four targets from inside the 10-yard line, and has quietly seen 31% of Los Angeles’ targets from that area of the field. The results, however, have not been pretty, as there have been some ugly drops. Failing to see more than five targets in a game this season, Robinson is likely a touchdown-or-bust WR3.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee put together a second consecutive solid outing last week, catching all four of his targets for 61 yards. The four targets were underwhelming but Stafford also only attempted 25 passes. For the season, Higbee has still accounted for 23.6% of the team’s targets, the third-highest rate among all tight ends so far this season. He is logging nearly 95% of the snaps, while running a route on over 87% of dropbacks this year, which is elite usage. Keep starting Higbee as a back-end TE1 in fantasy, regardless of the matchup. He’s the No. 2 pass-catcher on the Rams right now.