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The San Francisco 49ers were supposed to be a Super Bowl contender in 2024. Instead, they finished the season with a losing record. Would you be surprised if I told you that they were the most injured team in the NFL according to our adjusted games lost (AGL) numbers?
The biggest issue for San Francisco was a colossal cascade of injuries at running back which had them down to the fifth string by the end of the season. Because the 49ers kept losing the players who were supposed to start, they finished second all-time at the running back position with 32.2 AGL. (Nothing is ever going to quite match the 2021 Ravens, who had an astonishing 53.3 AGL at running back.) The 49ers lost Christian McCaffrey for most of the year when they had already lost his backup Elijah Mitchell, then lost Jordan Mason, and then at the end of the year lost Isaac Guerendo.
But it wasn’t just running back for the 49ers. They were also high in AGL at defensive back, defensive line, linebacker, and wide receiver. The 49ers ranked 31st in offensive AGL and 30th in defensive AGL. It was a huge change from the 2023 season, when the 49ers won the NFC after finishing fourth in fewest AGL.
Other teams that had a ton of AGL last season included Las Vegas, New Orleans, Carolina, and Miami. The top seven teams in AGL missed the playoffs. The highest AGL for a playoff team belonged to Detroit, which ranked second in fewest AGL on offense but 32nd with the worst AGL on defense. The Lions had the sixth-worst total of defensive AGL ever measured, going back to 2001.
On the other side of the docket, the Baltimore Ravens finished first with just 16.3 AGL. This was the lowest total since the 2017 Falcons and less than half of any other team’s AGL in the 2024 season. The Ravens had the fewest number of important injuries on both offense and defense. Only one player we counted for AGL missed more than two games this season: wide receiver Nelson Agholor, who missed three games.
Other teams with very few injuries included the Super Bowl champion Eagles as well as Chicago and Atlanta. Six of the eight best teams in AGL made the playoffs: Ravens, Eagles, Commanders, Broncos, Packers, and Bills.
Just as we did on our old website, I’ve continued to collect data from the NFL’s weekly injury reports (with the help of Zach Binney from Emory University) and transformed it into adjusted games lost. We also have the data going backwards, covering the entire 21st century. Adjusted games lost doesn’t just add up total injuries. It accounts for both absent players and those playing at less than 100%, and it specifically measures injuries to expected starters and important situational players rather than little-used backups. As such, AGL estimates the impact of injuries on teams and provides a comparable total that often succinctly explains why teams improved or declined from one year to the next. (AGL was created by Bill Barnwell.)
Here we go with the numbers. Hopefully this isn’t confusing, but ranks go from best (1, fewest injuries) to worst (32, most injuries). That’s why the 49ers are listed as No. 32 but they’re on top of the table.
| 2024 Adjusted Games Lost | ||||||||
| Team | OFF | RK | DEF | RK | TOT | RK | 2023 | RK |
| SF | 65.0 | 31 | 76.2 | 30 | 141.2 | 32 | 34.5 | 4 |
| LV | 39.7 | 20 | 79.1 | 31 | 118.8 | 31 | 26.8 | 2 |
| CAR | 45.4 | 24 | 69.6 | 28 | 115.0 | 30 | 120.6 | 31 |
| NO | 87.3 | 32 | 27.4 | 10 | 114.6 | 29 | 37.6 | 5 |
| MIA | 52.5 | 29 | 58.5 | 26 | 111.0 | 28 | 75.9 | 21 |
| CLE | 56.5 | 30 | 50.0 | 23 | 106.6 | 27 | 103.8 | 29 |
| ARI | 31.8 | 14 | 72.9 | 29 | 104.7 | 26 | 100.1 | 28 |
| DET | 10.1 | 2 | 86.5 | 32 | 96.6 | 25 | 66.7 | 18 |
| NE | 52.4 | 28 | 40.8 | 16 | 93.2 | 24 | 119.0 | 30 |
| LAR | 50.7 | 27 | 40.1 | 15 | 90.8 | 23 | 26.4 | 1 |
| IND | 35.1 | 18 | 54.7 | 25 | 89.8 | 22 | 81.8 | 25 |
| HOU | 45.7 | 25 | 43.3 | 19 | 88.9 | 21 | 157.9 | 32 |
| NYJ | 25.9 | 11 | 59.0 | 27 | 84.9 | 20 | 98.8 | 27 |
| DAL | 31.8 | 15 | 52.9 | 24 | 84.7 | 19 | 51.8 | 10 |
| PIT | 44.4 | 23 | 32.4 | 12 | 76.9 | 18 | 61.3 | 16 |
| TB | 32.4 | 16 | 43.3 | 20 | 75.8 | 17 | 51.5 | 9 |
| Team | OFF | RK | DEF | RK | TOT | RK | 2023 | RK |
| SEA | 39.8 | 21 | 32.7 | 13 | 72.4 | 16 | 64.8 | 17 |
| CIN | 34.5 | 17 | 37.2 | 14 | 71.6 | 15 | 28.9 | 3 |
| KC | 42.2 | 22 | 28.2 | 11 | 70.4 | 14 | 37.9 | 6 |
| NYG | 28.8 | 13 | 41.5 | 17 | 70.3 | 13 | 84.4 | 26 |
| TEN | 20.0 | 7 | 49.8 | 22 | 69.8 | 12 | 75.4 | 20 |
| LAC | 22.3 | 9 | 41.9 | 18 | 64.2 | 11 | 76.3 | 22 |
| MIN | 46.8 | 26 | 16.5 | 4 | 63.3 | 10 | 60.4 | 15 |
| JAX | 39.3 | 19 | 17.9 | 5 | 57.3 | 9 | 49.8 | 7 |
| BUF | 12.3 | 3 | 43.8 | 21 | 56.1 | 8 | 57.1 | 14 |
| GB | 19.7 | 6 | 26.4 | 7 | 46.1 | 7 | 80.1 | 24 |
| DEN | 19.1 | 5 | 26.8 | 8 | 45.9 | 6 | 55.5 | 13 |
| WAS | 22.1 | 8 | 23.5 | 6 | 45.5 | 5 | 54.4 | 12 |
| ATL | 28.4 | 12 | 15.8 | 3 | 44.2 | 4 | 53.3 | 11 |
| CHI | 13.0 | 4 | 27.3 | 9 | 40.3 | 3 | 50.5 | 8 |
| PHI | 22.5 | 10 | 11.2 | 2 | 33.7 | 2 | 76.5 | 23 |
| BAL | 7.7 | 1 | 8.6 | 1 | 16.3 | 1 | 71.3 | 19 |
You’ll notice only five playoff teams are in the bottom half of the league in AGL for 2024, and that includes the teams ranked 17th and 18th. It was truly a year where the injuries made a lot of difference in winning and losing.
Here’s a look at the teams with the lowest AGL since 2011. (AGL numbers were generally lower in the first decade of this century, so there are some teams before 2011 that are in the single digits.)
| Lowest Season AGL, 2011-2024 | ||
| Year | Team | AGL |
| 2012 | SF | 13.9 |
| 2017 | ATL | 14.9 |
| 2024 | BAL | 16.3 |
| 2011 | BAL | 18.2 |
| 2011 | PHI | 20.2 |
| 2011 | NO | 23.5 |
| 2019 | MIN | 25.6 |
| 2012 | MIN | 26.4 |
| 2011 | NYJ | 26.9 |
| 2017 | TEN | 27.4 |
And here’s a look at where the Lions, Raiders, and 49ers sit among the teams with the worst defensive AGL totals since 2001. Obviously, going to a 17-game season does somewhat contribute to these high numbers, although no team got as high as the Lions in 2022 or 2023. The 2020-2021 numbers here include COVID absences.
| Worst Defensive AGL, 2001-2024 | ||
| Year | Team | AGL |
| 2021 | NYJ | 101.3 |
| 2018 | TB | 91.4 |
| 2021 | BAL | 88.0 |
| 2020 | SF | 87.9 |
| 2016 | CHI | 87.5 |
| 2024 | DET | 86.5 |
| 2022 | TEN | 85.6 |
| 2015 | NYG | 85.6 |
| 2019 | NYJ | 83.7 |
| 2024 | LV | 79.1 |
| 2020 | NYJ | 77.3 |
| 2024 | SF | 76.2 |
In general, it was the teams with the most injuries that had the biggest increases in AGL from 2023 to 2024, but I also want to point out the Rams (who went from first to 23rd, increasing by 64.4 AGL) and the Bengals (who went from third to 14th, increasing by 42.7 AGL).
On the other side, the biggest drop in AGL belonged not to the Ravens but to last year’s most injured team, the Houston Texans. The Texans ranked 21st in 2024, with a reduction of 69.0 AGL. Also dropping significantly were the Ravens, the Eagles, the Packers, and the Patriots, although New England ranked 24th despite 25.8 less AGL than the year before.
When it comes to comparing offense to defense, nothing stands out quite like the Lions, but the Cardinals and Raiders were two other teams that were much more injured on defense than on offense. The Saints and Vikings stand out among teams that were much more injured on offense than on defense, although this counts J.J. McCarthy as the starting quarterback for the Vikings and thus he is worth 17.0 AGL on his own.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at which teams struggled the most with AGL at each position group in 2024.
