Week 13 Fantasy Football Game By Game Breakdown

Week 13 is arguably the best slate of the season.

Unlike last week, we have multiple fantastic games on tap, including a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game between the Bengals and Chiefs. This is also the final push to make the fantasy football playoffs and there is a lot to break down.

Let’s get after it. Here are the key things to know for the Week 13 fantasy football slate.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Total: 43.5, BUF -4.5
Pace: NE: 29.23 sec/snap (27th), BUF: 26.67 sec/snap (7th)

What to watch for: Damien Harris (thigh) is unlikely to play for the Patriots. Jakobi Meyers is dealing with a shoulder injury. For Buffalo, Von Miller will miss this game, though Tremaine Edmunds and Gregory Rosseau should be back.

Patriots

Quarterback

Mac Jones is coming off easily his best game of the season, completing 28-of-39 passes for 382 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Minnesota. It was a relatively favorable matchup against the Vikings. The Bills will be without Von Miller, but even then this is still a much more difficult matchup against a Buffalo defense that is surrendering the ninth-lowest passing touchdown rate in the league (3.6%), as well as the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (14.0). The Bills are also allowing the ninth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.8), making this an underwhelming spot for Jones, especially with some of the New England wide receivers dealing with injuries. Despite his stellar Week 12 outing, Jones remains a middling QB2 for fantasy purposes.

Running Back

He was already a must-start running back, but with Damien Harris likely out, Rhamondre Stevenson projects as a top-seven running back this week. The work in the passing game has been unbelievable, as Stevenson is coming off a game where he caught nine passes for 76 yards. Stevenson played 82% of the snaps on Thanksgiving and once Harris left the game in the third quarter, Stevenson played every single snap. The usage in the passing game isn’t going anywhere, as Stevenson has seen at least five targets in eight of his last nine games. And since Week 3, Stevenson has been as busy as any running back in football in the passing game, ranking fourth among running backs in targets (55), third in receptions (47) and second in target share (22%) during that span. And in that stretch, Stevenson has had at least a 20% target share in seven different contests. The Bills are about league average in terms of receptions per game allowed to opposing backfields on the season, but Stevenson is in line for an every-down role Thursday night and is gamescript-proof. Make sure to start Stevenson this week.

Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers played just 29% of the snaps last week, as he was limited with a shoulder injury that he suffered early in the game. He tried to fight through the injury but ultimately couldn’t stay on the field. Meyers has been limited in practice to start the week — after downplaying the injury, it seems like he is on track to play this week. He caught three passes for 62 yards on just 16 offensive snaps last week; as long as he is active this week, Meyers will remain on the WR3 borderline against the Bills. It isn’t a fantastic matchup, but Meyers will primarily see coverage from Taron Johnson, who I believe is a good player, but he is giving up production so far this season, allowing the third-most receptions (38), second-most receiving yards (429) and most touchdowns (4) in slot coverage. Per usual, Meyers is the only New England wide receiver I’d even consider starting in fantasy, especially if Tre’Davious White, who made his season debut last week, plays more than 23% of the snaps in his second game back in action.

Tight End

Every few weeks, Hunter Henry has a huge fantasy game. That was the case Thanksgiving night, as the veteran tight end exploded for 63 yards and a touchdown on three receptions. He probably should have had a second touchdown. but the NFL still has zero clue what a catch is. Henry’s five targets were his second most in a game this season, while Jonnu Smith actually logged a season-low 29% of the snaps. Henry, meanwhile, ran a route on 32-of-42 dropbacks (76%), so the usage is solid, but the matchup is brutal. The Bills are coughing up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (9.7), while they have yet to allow a tight end to score a touchdown against them, despite facing Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, etc. Like many tight ends, Henry is a touchdown-or-bust TE2 this week.

Bills

Quarterback

While there were definitely some struggles, Josh Allen put together a tremendous fantasy outing last week against the Lions, throwing for 253 yards and a pair of touchdowns and rushing for 78 yards and an additional score on 10 carries. Despite some serious up-and-down play over the last month or so, Allen is still the QB1 in fantasy, averaging 0.62 points per dropback, the fourth most in the league. Buffalo’s offense is still going through some growing pains at the moment, and a matchup with New England is interesting. They were just destroyed by Kirk Cousins to the tune of 299 yards and three touchdowns. Their overall passing defense looks good on paper, but they have also faced the Jets twice, the Colts with Sam Ehlinger, the Bears, the Lions without Amon-Ra St. Brown and the Browns since Week 5. New England is also allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (24.5), which bodes well for Allen, who is still averaging 7.3 rushing attempts and over 50 rushing yards per game this season. You are starting him, especially since he’s been more efficient against man coverage over the last few years.

Running Back

Devin Singletary’s two-game touchdown streak ended on Thanksgiving, but he still rushed for 72 yards on 14 carries. James Cook wasn’t nearly as involved as he was back in Week 11 when he carried the ball 11 times on 16 snaps. Singletary remains the clear lead back for Buffalo, logging at least 72% of the snaps in every game since Week 6. During that span, Singletary is also averaging a solid 16.1 touches per game, while Buffalo has been a bit more run-centric in the red zone. Since Week 6, Singletary ranks fourth in all of football in red zone carries with 21, while ranking sixth in carries from inside the five-yard line with six. And since Week 7, the Bills are 15th in the league in rushing rate in the red zone at 53.2%. I’m tempering expectations for Singletary in this matchup, as the Patriots have not allowed much production to running backs. They just held Dalvin Cook to 56 scoreless scrimmage yards on 26 touches and have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the season (15.6). Only the Titans are allowing fewer rushing touchdowns per game (0.4), making Singletary a solid flex play this week but not a player I am forcing into lineups.

Wide Receiver

Given how elite the matchup was (especially without Jeff Okudah), 79 yards and a touchdown actually felt like a bit of a disappointment for Stefon Diggs last week. I guess Diggs is just so good that the expectations are so lofty, but he still saw 15 targets, giving him double-digit targets in seven of 11 games this season. Diggs is one touchdown shy of hitting his career high already, as the All-Pro wide receiver is tied for the league-lead with 15 end zone targets this season. He has also accounted for 34.5% of the Bills red zone targets, the fourth-highest rate in all of football. Diggs faces a man-heavy Patriots defense that he has excelled against in games that don’t feature 40 mph winds. Among qualified receivers this season, Diggs ranks fourth in targets (35) and third in receptions (22) against man coverage. He’s obviously an every-week top-five wide receiver.

Gabe Davis disappointed last week, catching just four passes for 38 yards. He took a backseat to Isaiah McKenzie in this game, but Davis’ overall target share has been up over the last few games, which is really all you can ask for. We know the huge games will be huge and the disappointing games will be pretty rough, but he’s still an every-down player in one of the league’s most explosive offenses. His 11 yards per target ranks 11th among wide receivers, while his 19.7 yards per reception ranks fourth. The Patriots, meanwhile, are allowing the second-highest aDOT in the league (8.9 yards), giving Davis an opportunity to connect on some splash plays here. Not much has changed, however, and Davis should still be considered a high-ceiling WR3. 

McKenzie, meanwhile, is really interesting here. He is coming off his best game of the season, hauling in six passes for 96 yards and a touchdown. McKenzie was targeted 10 times, his most looks in a game this season and considering the matchup, it isn’t too shocking to see him produce against the Lions, who run more man coverage than essentially any team in football. If you look at some of the top games throughout McKenzie’s career, most of them have come against man-heavy defense, including his massive Week 16 performance against this very Patriots defense last year where he caught 11-of-12 targets for 125 yards and a touchdown. Per usual, the Patriots also play a ton of man coverage so we could very well see a second consecutive strong game from McKenzie. He played a season-high 73% of the snaps last week and if he gets that role again Thursday, he could be a solid WR3 in deep leagues, especially if you need to replace the Arizona wideouts or DJ Moore this week.

Tight End

The Dawson Knox experience, y’all.

After leading the Bills in receptions (7) and yards (70) in Week 11, Knox was held to just two receptions for 17 yards on two targets last week. It is obviously insanely difficult to trust Knox, who has seen a really inconsistent role in this Bills offense that runs through Allen and Diggs. This is a strong matchup, however, as the Patriots are surrendering the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (13.5), while only the Cardinals have allowed more touchdowns to the position (8). 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

Total: 43
Pace: ATL: 29.2 sec/snap (26th), PIT: 27.6 sec/snap (15th)

What to watch for: Najee Harris left Monday’s game with an abdomen injury and did not return.

Falcons

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota continues to provide a solid weekly floor but a limited ceiling in fantasy. The veteran signal caller has scored at least 15 fantasy points in nine games this season but has only scored 20-plus points three times. This is an interesting matchup for Mariota, as the Steelers are actually allowing the lowest play-action completion percentage in football at 52%, though they are also coughing up 13.8 yards per completion off the play type (6th-worst). Mariota, meanwhile, leads the NFL in play-action dropback rate (45%), while his 108 pass attempts off the play type are the third most in the league. He is also seventh in deep passing rate (14.9%), while the Steelers have allowed seven deep passing touchdowns, the most in football. Of course, Pittsburgh’s defense is obviously much improved with T.J. Watt active, but Mariota remains a high-floor streaming option thanks to his 6.8 rushing attempts and 35.1 rushing yards per game.

Running Back

Cordarrelle Patterson’s usage was a little better last week, as he logged 58% of the snaps and handled 14 touches for 71 total yards. Tyler Allgeier, meanwhile, played 39% of the snaps and touched the football 11 times. It is at least a little notable that in Atlanta’s first game without Kyle Pitts, Patterson tied a season-high in targets with five, his most in a game since Week 1. The Steelers have been a lot more vulnerable against the pass than the run, as 28.2% of the yards surrendered by this defense have come on the ground, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Hopefully Patterson continues to see involvement in the passing game, while also lining up out wide and in the slot. He should see 15 touches, which keeps him in the high-end flex radar, while Allgeier is a desperation play at best. 

Wide Receiver

Atlanta’s first game without tight end Kyle Pitts didn’t translate to more usage for Drake London, who caught just 2-of-4 targets for 29 yards against Washington. Instead, it was Olamide Zaccheaus who benefited from Pitts’ absence, hauling in five passes for 91 yards on a team-high eight targets. The matchup is obviously as favorable as it gets, as the Steelers are coughing up the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season, while 12 different wideouts have recorded at least 95 yards or scored a touchdown against this defense. Of course, most of those receivers were actually seeing meaningful targets. If London were in any other offense, he’d be a weekly low-end WR2 but there are too many games where he fails to even see five targets, which makes him a risky WR3. 

Tight End

With Pitts sidelined last week, the Falcons went with a committee approach at tight end. Parker Hesse, MyCole Pruitt and Anthony Firkser all played at least 23 snaps, while the latter led the position in routes run with 13. If you are relying on an Atlanta tight end to score points for your fantasy team, you are probably in some trouble.

Steelers

Quarterback

If you are looking for a streaming quarterback in a deep league, you could do worse than Kenny Pickett. Sure, he’s scored one or fewer touchdowns in every full start this season, but he’s also provided some floor thanks to the rushing presence, averaging 4.4 rushing attempts and nearly 25 rushing yards per game. We know Atlanta’s defense is one we can attack, as the Falcons are surrendering the fourth-most points (2.41), second-most yards (37.6) and most plays (6.7) per drive in football this season. Opposing offenses are also scoring points on 44.3% of drives against the Falcons, the highest rate in the league. 

Running Back

This is a situation we are going to have to keep an eye on throughout the week. Najee Harris left last week’s game with an abdomen injury and did not return, and Jaylen Warren was out with a hamstring injury. Entering Week 13, Harris has yet to practice, while Warren is practicing in full, potentially paving the way for Warren to start at running back in a dream matchup against an Atlanta defense that has allowed three 100-yard rushing performances since Week 8. We know Warren has been efficient when given opportunities this season, averaging a healthy 6.1 yards per touch, ranking second among qualified running backs in avoided tackles per attempt (0.32). Benny Snell would likely have a role but Warren was already starting to see 8-10 touches per game and most of the third-down work before suffering a hamstring injury so he should see most of the touches out of this backfield, especially when you consider that this Steelers team has featured one running back for years now. If Harris is ruled out and Warren is good to go, he would immediately settle in as a viable RB2.

Wide Receiver

94 targets, still zero touchdowns for Diontae Johnson. He had a chance last week but couldn’t corral the pass. Johnson remains nothing more than a low-ceiling WR3, despite the stellar matchup with the Falcons. He is sporting the 11th-fewest yards per target (5.38) and the ninth-fewest yards per reception (8.84) in football. Johnson has always been rather inefficient, but he made up for it by seeing elite volume. However, that has changed this season, as he hasn’t seen double-digit targets in a game since Week 7. He’ll see coverage from A.J. Terrell, who has been up-and-down this season, surrendering 0.35 fantasy points per coverage route and a league-leading seven touchdowns.

George Pickens remains the top wide receiver in Pittsburgh, however. He didn’t have a huge game Monday, catching three balls for 57 yards, but Pickens seemingly makes a jaw-dropping play every week and actually presents some upside. Since Pickett took over at quarterback, 26% of Pickens’ targets have come 20-plus yards down the field, one of the higher rates in the league during that span. Picket gives him opportunities to make plays down the field in one-on-one coverage and he’s set to face a Falcons team that ranks bottom-five against wide receivers this season, while also allowing the most air yards in the league (1,828). 

Tight End

He didn’t have a huge game, but Pat Freiermuth continues to see strong usage since the Chase Claypool trade. During those three games, Freiermuth ranks third among all tight ends in target share (25.2%) and receptions (15). He’s seen at least seven targets in four of his last five games and continues to see top-five usage at the tight end position. Freiermuth is a must-start player in all formats.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Total: 44, GB -3.5
Pace: CHI: 28.38 sec/snap (23rd), GB: 29.72 sec/snap (29th)

What to watch for: Bears safety Eddie Jackson will miss the remainder of the season. QB Justin Fields was full in practice Thursday.

Bears

Quarterback

After missing last week with a shoulder injury, Justin Fields was a full participant in practice Thursday, which puts him on track to play Sunday. As long as he is active, Fields returns to must-start status, especially after watching the Packers struggle to slow down Jalen Hurts last week, who set a franchise record 157 rushing yards last Sunday night. Fields is averaging a gaudy 11.1 rushing attempts and 75.8 rushing yards per game and Chicago will likely continue to rely on him to carry the offense, especially with Darnell Mooney out for the rest of the season. 

Running Back

Green Bay’s run defense is really, really bad. They just allowed over 300 rushing yards to the Eagles last week, with Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell combining for three touchdowns. Sanders rushed for 143 yards and a pair of scores and on the season, the Packers are now stuffing just 11% of all runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, the lowest rate in football. They are also allowing a healthy 2.60 yards after contact per rush this season, the worst rate in the league, and we know David Montgomery can break tackles. In the last two games with Khalil Herbert sidelined, Montgomery’s snap share hasn’t skyrocketed or anything, but he is averaging a healthy 18.5 touches per game. The return of Fields could lead to more efficiency from Montgomery out of the backfield and when he faced a healthier version of this Green Bay defense back in Week 2, he rushed for 122 yards on 15 carries, forcing eight missed tackles. Montgomery projects as a rock-solid RB2 in this divisional showdown.

Wide Receiver

Chase Claypool’s playing time was already on the rise, and now with Mooney out for the season, the veteran wideout should be a full-time player this week. Of course, that doesn’t mean you have to start him, as the Bears are still going to establish the hell out of the run and Mooney’s absence doesn’t exactly translate to a massive uptick in targets for Claypool. It was good to see him run a route on 21-of-28 dropbacks last week (75%) but he remains a low-floor flex play this weekend.

Tight End

We know that if Cole Kmet doesn’t find the end zone, he is going to disappoint, but perhaps his floor is slightly higher without Mooney in the lineup. He saw six targets last week and the potential return of Justin Fields will certainly help his chances of success. Kmet is still tied for seventh among all tight ends with five end zone targets, while he’s seen 33.3% of Chicago’s targets from inside the 10-yard line, the 11th-highest rate in all of football. 

Packers

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers left Sunday night’s game with a rib injury. He’s been limited in practice, he said he plans on playing this week. He clearly isn’t 100% healthy, as Rodgers is also dealing with a broken thumb, but he’s passed for multiple touchdowns in three straight games and four of his last five. This week’s matchup is elite, as the Bears just got torched by Mike White to the tune of 315 yards and three touchdowns. Opponents are completing nearly 73% of passes against the Bears over the last five weeks, as their defense is now depleted after trades and injuries. We know Rodgers has an insane track record against the Bears and this current iteration of the Chicago defense is arguably the worst he’s faced in years. Rodgers is a borderline QB1 in this stellar matchup, and Jordan Love would enter the streaming conversation if he happens to start this week.

Running Back

Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon produced last week. Jones caught three passes for 56 yards and a score, while Dillon rushed for 64 yards and a score on eight carries. Jones remains a must-start running back, especially in an outstanding matchup against a Bears defense that is coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the season. Jones dismantled this defense back in Week 2 to the tune of 132 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Chicago is also allowing the eighth-most yards after contact per rush attempt (2.5), while their red zone defense has struggled, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 66% of red zone trips this season, the sixth-worst rate in the league. Jones is a top-12 running back for Week 13, while Dillon is a desperation flex play, though 8-10 touches might be enough against this Bears defense right now.

Wide Receiver

Touchdowns are impossible to predict… Unless you are talking about Christian Watson.

The rookie continued his ascension last week, catching four passes for 110 yards and another touchdown. Watson has now scored in three consecutive games, finding the end zone a total of six times during that span. He is now eighth among all qualified wide receivers in yards per route run (2.45) and second in yards after the catch per reception (7.6). While his seven deep targets are the most in the league over the last three weeks. Between his ability to take the top off the defense or make plays after the catch, Watson’s ceiling is massive right now and he doesn’t necessarily need 8-10 targets, especially against a Bears defense that is coughing up the second-highest completion rate off deep passes (55.1%). It is almost impossible to get away from Watson right now, especially in this matchup. He’s a low-end WR2 for me.

Allen Lazard has taken a backseat during Watson’s breakout, catching 10 passes for 126 scoreless yards over the last three weeks. He’s obviously slowed down as of late but I’m still willing to give him a look as a solid WR3 here against this reeling Bears defense that just allowed Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore to combine for 159 yards and three touchdowns last week. Lazard will draw coverage from Kindle Vildor, who is allowing 0.27 fantasy points per coverage route this season. And since Week 8, opposing wide receivers have found plenty of success against Chicago.

WRs vs. Chicago since Week 8

Tight End

Robert Tonyan simply just hasn’t been getting it done. He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 4, while only reaching the 40-yard mark once all year long. When you are in the range of streaming tight ends, you are simply looking for matchups and Green Bay should be able to score points in this game, giving Tonyan some appeal. However, he’s also failed in ideal spots before and the Bears are actually allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (9.1).

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

Total: 51, DET -1
Pace: DET: 27.3 sec/snap (11th), JAC: 26.38 sec/snap (4th)

What to watch for: Travis Etienne remains limited with a foot injury but was cleared to return last week. CB Jeff Okudah will be back for the Lions.

Lions

Quarterback

Jared Goff is coming off a solid game against the Bills on Thanksgiving, throwing for 240 yards and a pair of scores. The ceiling has mostly been limited with Goff this season, but he does set up as a very strong streaming option in a game at home against the Jaguars with a high total. Over the last three games, the Jaguars are allowing 2.3 passing touchdowns per game, as well as 8.1 yards per pass attempt (third worst). And during that same span, only the Vikings are surrendering more yards per play than Jacksonville (6.5). The Jaguars are now allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers on the year (18.8), putting Goff on the map as a strong QB2/bye week replacement option.

Running Back

The bad news? D’Andre Swift only played 34% of the snaps last week. The good news, however, is that it was his highest snap share since Week 8. Swift played on 7-of-10 third downs against the Bills and 6-of-9 snaps in the two-minute drill, which is a step in the right direction, as Justin Jackson’s playing time decreased. Swift still only touched the ball nine times but was tackled at the goal line twice last week. Hopefully the playing time and touches continue to climb but until we can guarantee it, Swift remains a volatile flex play, though this week’s matchup is very intriguing. The Jaguars are coughing up the fourth-most receptions (6.2), second-most targets (8.0) and fifth-most receiving yards per game (45.9) per game to opposing backfields on the year, which bodes well for Swift if he remains the primary pass-catching back.

Of course, Jamaal Williams remains the lead back in Detroit. He carried the ball 18 times last week, handling 67% of Detroit’s running back carries. Williams scored his weekly touchdown, though also losing a fumble. Touchdowns are tough to project, but Williams hasn’t received the memo, as he’s found the end zone 13 times this season and ranks first in all of football with 22 rushing attempts from inside the five-yard line. He has been lacking in the receiving department, as Williams has gone four straight games without a catch, which makes him a touchdown-or-bust RB2 most weeks.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown was almost the entire Lions offense last week, catching 9-of-10 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown. It was his sixth game with double-digit targets, as St. Brown is now being targeted on 32% of his routes this season, the second-highest rate in all of football. He obviously remains a must-start, top-15 wide receiver and should continue to see elite volume against a vulnerable Jacksonville defense.

Tight End

You should not be relying on any tight end from the Lions for fantasy football purposes.

Jaguars

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence is coming off his “moment” game Sunday, completing 29-of-37 passes for 321 yards, three touchdowns and a two-point conversion. Down the stretch, Lawrence made throw after throw in a come-from-behind victory over the Ravens, completing five different passes of 20-plus yards down the field. Now he gets a great matchup against the Lions, who are coughing up the most points per drive (2.58) in all of football this season, as well as the most yards (40.0) and second-most plays (6.5) per drive. Detroit is also allowing a league-worst 23.9 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season, while surrendering the highest aDOT (9.2 yards), second-highest yards per pass attempt (7.9) and ninth-highest passing touchdown rate (4.7%), making Lawrence a top-12 fantasy signal caller for me. 

Running Back

Travis Etienne suffered a foot injury last week. He was cleared to return, but Doug Pederson and the Jaguars played it safe by holding their star running back out. Etienne has been limited to start the week, and while it seems like he’ll suit up, make sure you are keeping tabs on his status. Of course, if Etienne is starting for the Jaguars, he should be starting for your fantasy rosters, especially against a Lions defense that has been better against running backs lately but are still allowing the most yards before first contact per rush in the NFL this season (3.4). 13.8% of the runs against the Lions this season have gone for 10 or more yards, the sixth-highest rate in the league, which bodes well for Etienne, as 13.5% of his runs have gained 10-plus yards, one of the highest rates in football. Etienne is a top-10 running back as long as he is active this week.

If he doesn’t end up playing, JaMycal Hasty would become a viable flex play. He logged 78% of the snaps in Etienne’s absence last week, touching the ball 17 times for 95 yards and a receiving touchdown. Hasty also saw every goal line and short-yardage snap, while seeing all but one snap on third down. It is possible that Darrell Henderson is active if Etienne can’t play, but I’d expect Hasty to continue to operate as Jacksonville’s lead running back if that is the case.

Wide Receiver

Christian Kirk took a backseat to Zay Jones’ massive game last week but was still targeted nine times. He is now averaging a healthy 9.5 targets per game over his last five outings and continues to primarily play out of the slot, lining up there just over 77% of the time this season. Kirk remains a very strong play against a Lions defense that is coughing up the fourth-most receptions (5.5), the most yards (79.7) and fourth-most fantasy points per game (15.6) to opposing pass-catchers from the slot this season. Defensive back Will Harris is allowing 0.31 fantasy points per route run this season to go along with a 79% catch rate. And because no team plays more man coverage than the Lions, that will be Kirk’s matchup for much of this game. When Kirk has had a strong matchup this season, he has delivered more often than not, so I’d trust him as a high-end WR3 here.

Zay Jones is coming off a career-best game last week, hauling in 11 passes for 145 yards. He was targeted 14 times, giving him a 38% target share, while being targeted on 36% of his routes. Jones has now seen double-digit targets in three of his last five games and still ranks top-10 in all of football with eight end zone targets on the season. Jeff Okudah will be back for the Lions, who has shut down multiple wideouts over the course of the season, but Jones’ volume has been strong for most of the season. He’s a viable WR3/flex play this weekend.

Tight End

Despite Lawrence coming off his best game in the NFL, Evan Engram wasn’t really part of it. He caught his only target for four yards last week but if you are looking for tight ends off the waiver wire, at the end of the day, your best bet is to chase routes and playing time. Engram provides both, as he logged 81% of the snaps last week, while running a route on 35-of-42 dropbacks (83%). For the season, Engram ranks fifth among all tight ends in routes run (338) and has a great matchup against a Lions team that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points (14.3) per game to opposing tight ends.

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans

Total: 46.5, CLE -7
Pace: HOU: 28.85 sec/snap (25th), CLE: 28.23 sec/snap (21st)

What to watch for: Deshaun Watson will make his season debut this week.

Texans

Quarterback

Kyle Allen made his first start of the year last week, completing 26-of-39 passes for 215 yards, one touchdown and a pair of interceptions. The Cleveland defense has been one of the most inviting matchups in all of fantasy football. That’s cool. You aren’t starting Kyle Allen in any format. 

Running Back

It has been a rough stretch for Dameon Pierce all of a sudden. The star rookie running back has scored under 10 fantasy points over the last two weeks but should be in store for a major bounceback performance at home against an atrocious Cleveland run defense. The Browns are surrendering the fourth-most yards before first contact per rush in football this season (2.91), as well as the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. They are also coughing up 1.09 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs, while 14.7% of the runs against the Browns have gained 10 or more yards, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Over the last two weeks, Pierce faced a stout Washington run defense and then fell behind 30-0 early against the Dolphins, limiting him to a 56% snap share, his lowest in a game since Week 7. As long as the Texans can keep this within shouting distance, Pierce should be able to run wild here. Don’t be afraid to go back to him.

Wide Receiver

I really don’t want to start any Houston pass-catchers if I can help it. Brandin Cooks posted another low-ceiling game last week, catching all five targets for 59 yards. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4, hasn’t seen double-digit targets since Week 2 and hasn’t reached 85 receiving yards in a game this year. Cooks, who was a target machine last season, has now been out-targeted by Nico Collins in each of the last three games. Collins is averaging a solid 8.6 targets per game during that span. Both Houston wideouts are low-ceiling WR3 plays going forward but the wide receiver position is deep enough where you can probably find more exciting options.

Tight End

If you were to start a tight end from the Texans, I guess it would be Jordan Akins, who was Houston’s best player last week, catching five passes for 61 yards and a touchdown. However, the Texans still deployed three tight ends, with Akins only running a route on 57% of dropbacks. 

Browns

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson will make his Cleveland debut this week, facing his former team in Houston. Watson is likely to have some rust and while many might immediately slide him into the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks, I have some trepidation. For starters, this should absolutely be a game where the Browns dominate with their ground attack. Secondly, Watson hasn’t played football in a long time so I’m not expecting him to come right in and dominate. The matchup is solid, as the Texans are coughing up the second-most yards per completion on the year (11.6), though they don’t face many pass attempts because teams are always running the ball against them, especially in the second half of games. I have Watson as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 in his first game of the year.

Running Back

If you are facing Nick Chubb in any leagues this season, it might be best to stay away from your laptop Sunday.

Chubb is coming off a 100-yard, one-touchdown game against the Bucs and now gets the best matchup in all of fantasy football. 15.3% of the runs against Houston have gained 10 or more yards, the third-highest rate in the league, while Chubb leads the NFL in runs of 10 or more yards (33). The Texans have also missed the sixth-most tackles in football (62), while Chubb unsurprisingly ranks second in avoided tackles (62) and third in avoided tackles per attempt (0.31). Opposing offenses are running the football a whopping 51.2% of the time against Houston, the second-highest rate in football. Chubb should be able to do whatever he wants against the league’s worst run defense, while this could finally be the game where Kareem Hunt delivers as a flex play. The touches have been way down as of late but if he can get back to 12 or 13 touches, that should be more than enough in this spot.

Wide Receiver

Overtime really helped Amari Cooper last week, who had 62 of his 94 receiving yards on the final drive of the game. Still, Cooper’s final stat line of 7-94-0 is strong and he was targeted 12 times, his second consecutive game with 12 targets. Cooper is sporting a healthy 25.8% target share on the season, while he’s seen 38.3% of the Browns air yards, the eighth-highest rate in the league. He also ranks eighth in first-read targets with 43. We’ll see how much of a transition there will be with Watson under center, but Cooper should remain a solid WR2 in this matchup, even on the road.

Donovan Peoples-Jones had a quiet game last week, catching just two passes for 16 yards. Peoples-Jones has still recorded at least 50 receiving yards in seven of his last eight games, while recording a reception of at least 25 yards in seven contests during that span. The Texans have actually been pretty good against perimeter wide receivers this season and if the Browns do what they should do on the ground here, it could be a low-volume game for DPJ. He’s a fine flex play but you may need him to connect on a splash play here.

Tight End

David Njoku (knee) was ruled out Friday, meaning the team will have Harrison Bryant as its No. 1 tight end Sunday. Njoku missed two games earlier this year – in one, Bryant went without a target. In the other, he caught all 3 of his targets for 15 yards, but he did score a touchdown. It’s not exciting, but with Njoku out, Bryant is a touchdown-or-bust tight end, while Pharaoh Brown will log 35-40% of the snaps.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

Total: 39.5, BAL -8.5
Pace: BAL: 30.02 sec/snap (32nd), DEN: 26.5 sec/snap (6th)

What to watch for: Jerry Jeudy will likely remain sidelined for Denver. 

Ravens

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson scored 23 fantasy points last week, but it should have been more. He ran a bit unlucky, as he was tackled at the 1-yard line, which followed a wide open dropped touchdown pass by Mark Andrews. On the very next play, Gus Edwards scored from a yard out, helping limit Jackson to just one touchdown. He still rushed for 89 yards, but the lack of playmakers at wide receiver continues to hurt Jackson. There were multiple dropped touchdown passes from Baltimore pass-catchers in this game, and now he faces a tough Denver defense that is allowing the league’s lowest passing touchdown rate on the year (2.4%). They are also allowing the second-fewest fantasy points (11.4) and third-fewest rushing yards per game (11.4) to opposing quarterbacks, but their pressure rate has dropped significantly since the trade of Bradley Chubb. Jackson’s ceiling isn’t as high as it once was, especially without consistent field stretching receivers, but you likely aren’t sitting him. He’s too good and the floor is too high.

Running Back

Following a two-week absence, Gus Edwards returned last week and was the clear lead back in Baltimore, rushing 16 times for 52 yards and a touchdown. Edwards played 50% of the snaps and handled 16-of-19 Baltimore running back touches. He played 27-of-49 early down snaps, and with J.K. Dobbins not expected to return this week, Edwards will once again start at running back for a Baltimore team that is 8.5-point home favorites. We just saw D’Onta Foreman eclipse 100 rushing yards against this Denver run defense last week and have now allowed back-to-back running backs to rush for 100 yards. 39.7% of the yardage gained against the Broncos this season have come via the run, the sixth-highest rate in football, which bodes well for this Baltimore offense. Edwards is a fine flex play this weekend.

Wide Receiver

Starting Baltimore wide receivers is a very, very risky move at the moment. Demarcus Robinson came back down to earth last week, catching just one pass for 17 yards, while dropping a touchdown pass. Devin Duvernay led the wideouts in snaps, routes and targets last week but turned the usage into just three catches for 23 yards. Both wideouts will take turns drawing coverage from Pat Surtain, who did just struggle with DJ Moore last week, but Duvernay and Robinson aren’t DJ Moore.

Tight End

Mark Andrews has not found the end zone since Week 6, and while I could sit here and talk about how underwhelming he’s been as of late, it really doesn’t matter because you are starting him without hesitation anyway. His 26.9% target share easily leads all tight ends but also ranks ninth in all of football this season. You have to think a vintage Andrews game is on the horizon and this Baltimore offense could surely use it right about now.

Broncos

Quarterback

Russell Wilson’s nightmare 2022 season continued last week, as he completed just 19-of-35 passes for 142 yards and a touchdown. He also lost a fumble. Wilson averaged a comical 4.1 yards per attempt, his ninth game out of 10 with one or fewer touchdown passes. The Broncos legitimately have the worst offense in the NFL, averaging a league-worst 1.23 points per drive, while Denver is only scoring points on 26.6% of drives, the lowest rate in football. Wilson couldn’t get it done against the Raiders two weeks ago, so it is tough to expect any sort of outlier game on the road against Baltimore.

Running Back

With Melvin Gordon released, Latavius Murray saw an elite role last week. The veteran running back drew the start and logged 82% of the snaps, handling 14-of-18 Denver running back touches. He played 23-of-28 snaps in the two-minute drill, while also playing all but one third down snap. Murray was the lone bright spot in Denver’s depressing offense, rushing for 92 yards on 13 carries and although this week’s matchup against the Ravens is tough, he projects a volume-based flex play. The Ravens have stuffed the run this season, surrendering the second-fewest yards per rush attempt (3.9), while just 24.4% of the yardage allowed by this defense has come on the ground, the second-lowest rate in football. Mike Boone could be back for this game, which could potentially cut into Murray’s snaps in passing situations, but he should still dominate touches in this backfield, keeping him fantasy relevant.

Wide Receiver

Despite the Broncos offense doing next to nothing over the last few weeks, Courtland Sutton has still been solid, recording stat lines of 5-80-0 and 6-75-0. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since all the way back in Week 4, but he continues to see most of the targets with Jerry Jeudy sidelined. Over the last three weeks, Sutton has accounted for nearly 27% of Denver’s targets, as he remains a much more reliable fantasy receiver in games where Jeudy doesn’t play. In fact, since last season, Sutton is averaging nearly eight more fantasy points, three more targets, two more receptions and 44 more receiving yards per game in nine games with Jeudy out of the lineup. Sutton will draw plenty of coverage from Brandon Stephens in this game, who is allowing 0.29 fantasy points per coverage route this season. With Jeudy likely out again, Sutton remains a high-end WR3 who has top-15 upside if he can just find the end zone.

Meanwhile, if you are in a deep league, Kendall Hinton is worth a look. He caught 5-of-9 targets for 35 yards last week but with Jeudy sidelined, he has played 96%, 88% and 92% of the snaps for the Broncos, running a route on 115-of-124 dropbacks over the last three weeks (93%). Hinton has operated out of the slot about 66% of the time and while it didn’t come to fruition last week, the Ravens are still allowing the most receptions (5.9), second-most targets (8.3) and fifth-most fantasy points (14.9) per game to opposing slot receivers this season.

Tight End

Greg Dulcich still has a fantasy-friendly role, however, he’s in the furthest thing from a fantasy friendly offense. Over his last three games, the rookie tight end has caught seven passes for just 52 yards. He is third among all tight ends in routes run during that span but in this putrid Denver offense, Dulcich is a risky TE2. 

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants

Total: 40.5, WAS -2
Pace: NYG: 27.96 sec/snap (19th), WAS: 28.83 sec/snap (24th)

What to watch for: Antonio Gibson hasn’t practiced yet this week with a foot injury. 

Giants

Quarterback

Daniel Jones has been a very solid QB2 in superflex formats for most of the season, but in games where the rushing production hasn’t been there, Jones has posted low-ceiling outings. It isn’t too surprising when you consider that the Giants lack a lot of talent at wide receiver right now, while they are also leaning on the run when they can. Jones faces a red-hot Washington defense that has been getting after opposing quarterbacks, and now rank fourth in the league in pressure rate at 25.2%. They are allowing the sixth-highest passing touchdown rate on the year (5.1%) but given how little upside Jones has in the passing game in this offense, you will need him to get back to rushing for 40-plus yards, especially against this Commanders defense that is playing well right now.

Running Back

You aren’t benching him, but this is yet another tough spot for Saquon Barkley. The Commanders’ run defense has been elite this season, stuffing 51.6% of short-yardage runs, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, just 9.7% of the runs against Washington have gained 10 or more yards, the fifth-lowest rate. Only the Patriots, 49ers and Bucs are allowing fewer fantasy points per game to opposing backfields than the Commanders this season (18.7) and Barkley’s efficiency has come down as of late. In fact, since Week 9, Barkley is just 38th in the league in missed tackles forced (4), while his explosive run rate has plummeted. It has been good to see him get 11 targets over the last two games, but his overall opportunity share has come down. Again, you are still starting Barkley, but he shouldn’t be viewed as an easy top-five fantasy running back, especially in this matchup.

Wide Receiver

Darius Slayton remains the only Giants pass-catcher you’re even remotely considering starting this week. Slayton has five straight games with at least 58 receiving yards and during that span, he is the WR22 in fantasy. With Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson out for the season, Slayton has operated as the clear WR1 for the Giants as of late, sporting a solid 22.2% target share over the last five weeks. During that same span, Slayton is also ninth among all wide receivers in yards per target (12.4) and sixth in yards per reception (19.3). That could set him up for some success against a Washington secondary that is allowing the fourth-highest aDOT in football (8.7 yards). Slayton is a viable flex play in PPR formats.

Tight End

Rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger could return to the lineup after suffering an eye injury back in Week 7. If he is active, you still aren’t looking to start a tight end from this Giants team, but Bellinger had been on the rise prior to his injury.

Commanders

Quarterback

While he continues to do enough to help the Commanders continue to win games, Taylor Heinicke is not someone we should be looking to start in fantasy leagues. Over his last four games, he has two games without a touchdown and two games with multiple touchdown passes. The Giants’ defense is banged up at the moment and Heinicke has been strong against the blitz so far this season, sporting the league’s eighth-highest completion rate (67.5%), which is always something to track when facing the Giants, who blitz at the highest rate in football (42.3%). Still, Heinicke is the QB21 in fantasy points per dropback since taking over back in Week 7, showcasing his limited ceiling.

Running Back

Just when it looked like Antonio Gibson was potentially going to take over the Washington backfield, Brian Robinson had his breakout game in Week 12, rushing for 105 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Robinson looked great against the Falcons, forcing four missed tackles and he ultimately out-touched Gibson 20-12 while logging 48% of the snaps. At the moment, Gibson is dealing with a foot injury that has kept him out of practice. With J.D. McKissic on injured reserve, Robinson could see close to an every-down role if Gibson is also unable to play this week, while the matchup is absolutely stellar. The Giants run defense is one of the worst in the league, as they are coughing up the seventh-most rushing yards per game (138.9), second-most yards per rush attempt (5.2) and eighth-most rushing touchdowns per game (0.82). Meanwhile, 16.2% of the runs against the Giants have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the NFL. And since Week 6, we have seen some very strong running back performances against this Giants defense. Robinson is a very solid play regardless of Gibson’s status but if he is ruled out, the rookie propels to RB2 status.

RBs vs. NYG since Week 6

Wide Receiver

Once again, Terry McLaurin led the Commanders in targets last week, something he has done in every game Heinicke has been under center this season. He didn’t have the greatest of games, catching just four passes for 48 yards, but the volume remains strong for McLaurin, who continues to post stronger numbers alongside Heinicke than with Carson Wentz. This matchup against the Giants is much more favorable for McLaurin, as top defensive back Adoree’ Jackson will remain sidelined, and we just saw CeeDee Lamb catch six balls for 106 yards against New York on Thanksgiving.

Curtis Samuel, meanwhile, can be dropped if he hasn’t been already. He had zero targets last game, as he continues to see minimal usage with Heinicke under center. In fact, with Wentz under center this season, Samuel is averaging 8.3 targets, 5.6 receptions, 47.8 receiving yards and 13.3 PPR points per game. However, in games alongside Heinicke, he is averaging just 3.67 targets, 2.3 receptions, 34.3 receiving yards and 9.6 PPR points per game. He has seen four targets or less in all but one game with Heinicke at quarterback and at this point, you are hoping he scores a rushing touchdown on the 3.3 rushing attempts per game he is averaging since Week 7. 

Tight End

Logan Thomas falls into the mid-range TE2 territory. He continues to deal with a minor injury, though he’s played through it over the last two weeks. This is a solid matchup, as the Giants are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (14.1), as well as the fourth-most receiving yards (61.6) and fifth-most receptions per game (5.3) to the position. 

New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings

Total: 44.5, MIN -3
Pace: MIN: 26.98 sec/snap (9th), NYJ: 27.57 sec/snap (14th)

What to watch for: Michael Carter is dealing with an ankle injury and could miss this game.

Vikings

Quarterback

Despite playing in primetime and missing his starting left tackle last week, Kirk Cousins delivered against the Patriots, completing 30-of-37 passes for 299 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. He stays home for a meeting with a tough Jets defense that is generating pressure at the league’s fifth-highest rate (24.7%), while also allowing the third-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.5) and third-lowest passing touchdown rate (2.7%). They are surrendering the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (14.1), though they also haven’t faced the greatest of competition. Still, I have Cousins as more of a high-end QB2 than a slam dunk QB1 in this matchup.

Running Back

Dalvin Cook is coming off a brutal Week 12 outing, rushing for just 42 yards on 22 carries. The 26 touches are all I care about, however, as Cook has seen at least five targets in four of his last five games. The Jets are a middling matchup for opposing running backs, but Cook’s volume remains elite, keeping him in the RB1 discussion, especially since he’s been playing way more on passing downs over the last few weeks.

Wide Receiver

On Thanksgiving, Justin Jefferson did that thing again where he looks like the best wide receiver in football. He caught nine passes for 139 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots, as he builds on his stellar season. Jefferson has now recorded at least 95 receiving yards in eight of 11 games on the year, while eclipsing the century mark in seven different games. While this isn’t the easiest matchup in the world against the Jets impressive defensive back duo, Jefferson obviously will remain in all fantasy lineups. The tougher decision will surround Adam Thielen, who caught 9-of-10 targets for 61 yards and a score last week. It was Thielen’s first touchdown since Week 6, though he has still only reached the 70-yard mark in one game this season. He will likely line up against Sauce Gardner for about 45% of his routes, as Gardner has lined up on the left side of the field 90% of the time this season. He’s been stellar, surrendering just 0.12 fantasy points per coverage route and a 43% catch rate, two of the best rates in the league. Gardner is also allowing a reception every 17.7 coverage snaps, the second-best rate among all qualified defensive backs. Thielen’s strong Week 12 showing doesn’t change anything for me. He remains a low-floor WR3.

Tight End

It is safe to say that T.J. Hockenson has enjoyed his time in Minnesota, and the good times continued last week, as the veteran tight end caught 5-of-6 targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. Hockenson has been heavily involved in this Minnesota offense since joining the team, ranking third among tight ends in fantasy points, second in targets (33) and first in receptions (26). During that span, Hockenson is averaging 6.5 receptions and 8.5 targets per game and remains a top-seven tight end going forward, regardless of matchup. Look for him to keep it going here, however, as the Jets are allowing the fifth-most receptions (5.3) and eighth-most targets (7.5) per game to opposing tight ends.

Jets

Quarterback

With Zach Wilson benched, Mike White stepped in and shined last week, completing 22-of-28 passes for 315 yards and three touchdowns against the Bears. It was an impressive performance, for sure, and now the question is how seriously should we consider him as a QB2 in superflex formats, or even a streaming candidate in deep leagues? The matchup with the Vikings is solid, as they just allowed Mac Jones to throw for 382 yards and a pair of touchdowns. No team in football is allowing more yards per pass attempt this season than the Vikings (8.3), while also coughing up the second-highest completion rate in football (69.3%). I certainly would not expect a repeat performance from last week but White should be able to post solid numbers in this matchup, especially if the Jets fall behind.

Running Back

Suddenly, the Jets backfield becomes one of the more interesting units in fantasy.

With James Robinson a healthy scratch last week, I expected a huge workload and tremendous game from Michael Carter. However, he didn’t really see an uptick in playing time or usage before he left the game with an ankle injury, one that has kept him out of practice this week. Instead of Carter seeing more work, Zonovan Knight took Robinson’s role and ultimately was the team’s early-down running back once Carter left. Knight ran well, rushing for 69 yards on 14 carries. After the game, head coach Robert Saleh spoke highly of Knight, who could get the bulk of the carries if Carter can’t play. However, there are some interesting aspects to this situation. For starters, Robinson could be active in this game, especially if Carter is out. However, the Jets, who traded a conditional 2023 sixth-round draft pick to Jacksonville for Robinson, have some incentive to not play Robinson. If he rushed for 600 yards this year, that sixth rounder becomes a fifth-round selection, which is perhaps why Robinson was a healthy scratch last week. The matchup is also tough, as Minnesota is stuffing 20% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage this season. The Vikings have been a pass funnel offense this season, while Ty Johnson still operated as the third-down running back last week, playing 10-of-11 third downs. Knight is an okay flex play if Carter is inactive, but I definitely wouldn’t project a huge game or anything.

Wide Receiver

Garrett Wilson is coming off an outstanding game, catching five passes for 95 yards and a pair of scores. He had 29% of the Jets targets in this game, as Wilson continued to produce in games where Zach Wilson is not under center for the Jets. In fact, in the four games where Wilson has not played quarterback, the Ohio State product is averaging 10 targets, 5.75 receptions, 77.2 receiving yards and 19.4 fantasy points per game. In the seven games with Wilson under center, however, he is averaging just 8.37 PPR points per contest. The star rookie wideout gets a great matchup with a Vikings defense that allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. 

While it was exciting to see him finally get the football, Elijah Moore is still not someone you can comfortably start in fantasy. Yes, he caught two passes for 64 yards and his first touchdown of the season, but Moore still only played 35% of the snaps and ran a route on just 13-of-30 dropbacks (43%). 

Tight End

Tyler Conklin gets a revenge game this weekend, facing his former team in Minnesota. Conklin caught three passes for 50 yards last week and while he continues to share playing time with C.J. Uzomah, the Jets are running plenty of two tight end sets with Conklin running routes and Uzomah blocking. There is nothing to fear with this matchup, as the Vikings are allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game (49.3) to opposing tight ends on the season. 

Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 44.5, PHI -4.5
Pace: PHI: 26.93 sec/snap (8th), TEN: 29.57 sec/snap (28th)

What to watch for: Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson will miss time with a kidney injury. For the Titans, Jeffery Simmons continues to deal with an ankle injury.

Eagles

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts is coming off an insane Sunday night game against Green Bay, rushing for over 100 yards in the first quarter alone. He ultimately finished the game with 153 passing yards and two scores, as well as a franchise-record 157 rushing yards on 17 rushing attempts. Not that we should expect him to have 150 more rushing yards this week, but Hurts and the Eagles face the premiere pass funnel defense in football in Tennessee. 75.9% of the yardage gained against the Titans this season has come through the air, the highest rate in the NFL, while 82.6% of the touchdowns against this defense has been via the pass, also the highest rate in the league. Tennessee’s overall pass defense has been much improved over the last few weeks, while teams have essentially abandoned the run against the Titans, sporting the league’s highest passing play percentage (66.2%). Hurts has finished as a top-five fantasy signal caller in seven games this season, with his worst finish being QB14. 

Running Back

After a bit of a rough stretch in some tougher matchups, Miles Sanders erupted for 143 yards and two touchdowns against a bad Green Bay run defense last week. It was great to see but now he gets one of the worst matchups for running backs, facing a Tennessee defense that is allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season. Sanders actually caught three passes last week but that feels like the outlier and because of the lack of pass-catching usage, he has been a bit touchdown reliant this season. That isn’t exactly a recipe for success against a Titans defense that is allowing 0.18 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs this year, the second fewest in football. They have allowed two rushing touchdowns all year to running backs so if Sanders doesn’t find the end zone, he’ll likely disappoint. You don’t have to get away from him here, but I’d definitely temper expectations.

Wide Receiver

It is pretty evident that A.J. Brown and the Titans didn’t exactly have the smoothest farewell. As a result, we have a highly coveted revenge game for Brown against a vulnerable Tennessee defense that allows the third-most air yards in the league (1,790). He is going through a little bit of a slump right now, finishing as the WR93, WR36 and WR27 over the last three weeks but now that he is over his illness, Brown should get back on track against a Titans team that allows the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Opposing wideouts are averaging a healthy 21.2 targets per game against the Titans (4th-most), making this a potential smash spot for Brown against his former team.

I also really like DeVonta Smith, who has seen massive target shares in the absence of tight end Dallas Goedert. Smith has led the Eagles in targets over the last three weeks, seeing 8, 9 and 9 looks. During that span, Smith is sporting an impressive 35.6% target share, which not only easily leads the Eagles since Week 10 but leads the entire NFL. Smith has also seen 43.6% of Philadelphia’s air yards during that stretch, giving him legitimately elite rates since Goedert has been out of the lineup. Given the volume, the production has been a bit lacking for Smith but he still projects as a back-end WR2 against the Titans, who are allowing the third-most receptions (4.5), most receiving yards (65.6) and second-most fantasy points per game (13.7) to opposing wide receivers on the right side of the formation. That bodes well for Smith, who lines up on the right side of the field 45% of the time. 

Finally, if you are in a deep league or looking for some value in DFS contests, consider Quez Watkins. Since Goedert has been out, he’s also seen an uptick in playing time and opportunities, lining up out of the slot 66.7% of the time over the last two weeks. And in Week 12, Watkins played a season-high 83% of the snaps, catching three-of-five targets for 35 yards and a touchdown. He’s now scored in every game since Goedert has been on injured reserve.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert will be back in Week 15. That is the next time you should consider starting a Philadelphia tight end in fantasy.

Titans

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill is coming off a scoreless game last week and now heads to Philadelphia to take on a tough Eagles pass defense. The Eagles are allowing the sixth-lowest passing touchdown rate on the year (3.4%), as well as the fewest yards per pass attempt (6.0). They have also yet to allow a quarterback to finish inside the top-12 against them all year long, though they have at least been a bit vulnerable against play-action, allowing five touchdown passes and 8.3 yards per attempt off the play type this season. Still, it is hard to project Tannehill as anything more than a low ceiling QB2 most weeks, but especially here.

Running Back

Derrick Henry rushed for just 38 yards on 17 carries last week, adding three catches for 79 yards. Unfortunately, Henry didn’t find the end zone, as he was on his way before losing the football right before crossing the goal line. The Eagles have obviously made an effort to improve their struggling run defense by adding both Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh, but the Green Bay running backs just got after them last week. On the season, 39.6% of the yardage against the Eagles has come on the ground, the seventh-highest rate in football, while also coughing up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Consistently seeing three or four targets can’t hurt either, as Henry has already set a career-high in receptions on the season with 21.

Wide Receiver

While it didn’t come the way he expected it to, Treylon Burks scored his first career touchdown last week, recovering a fumble in the end zone. Of course, he made plays in the passing game, catching four passes for 70 yards, including an impressive 51-yard contested catch. Burks now has a 51-yard reception in consecutive games, while the involvement is on the rise. The Titans are starting to run more 11 personnel, which led to Burks logging 67% of the snaps last week, while running a route on 81% of dropbacks. This is a tough spot for all of the Titans wide receivers but especially Burks, who primarily plays out wide, which is where the Eagles really are tough to beat. They are allowing a catch rate below 55% to perimeter wide receivers this season, one of the best rates in the league. Burks is a volatile flex play this week, while Robert Woods simply doesn’t have the ceiling to consider in most matchups, let alone this one.

Tight End

Tennessee continues to use three tight ends in their offense. Austin Hooper is in front and, for what it is worth, has reached 30 receiving yards in four consecutive games, which isn’t nothing when it comes to the tight end position. Still, there are tight ends on waivers that have a higher ceiling and more route/target potential than Hooper.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

Total: 40.5, SEA -7
Pace: LAR: 29.96 sec/snap (31st), SEA: 27.37 sec/snap (12th)

What to watch for: Matthew Stafford will remain sidelined for the Rams, while Aaron Donald has been ruled out with an ankle injury.

Rams

Quarterback

With Matthew Stafford likely out for the rest of the season, the Rams started Bryce Perkins last week. It was a tough spot for his first career start, on the road in Kansas City without Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. Perkins threw for just 100 yards on 23 attempts, while leading the Rams in rushing yards with 44. Perkins is not on the fantasy radar.

Running Back

With Darrell Henderson now in Jacksonville, Cam Akers and Kyren Williams took over the Los Angeles backfield last week. Williams led the team with 11 carries but also dominated the work in the passing game, playing 10-of-11 third downs and every snap in the two-minute drill. He also played all four short-yardage snaps, while logging 70% of the overall offensive snaps. Akers, meanwhile, carried the ball eight times, playing just under 30% of the snaps and now he is dealing with an illness. Williams is on the flex radar if you are hurting this week, as the Rams are likely going to continue trying to run the football given the current state of their offense. The matchup is strong, too, as Seattle is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season, as well as the fifth-most receptions (5.9) and second-most receiving yards per game (48.6) to running backs.

Wide Receiver

With Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson out last week, Van Jefferson operated as the Rams leading receiver, catching three passes for 29 yards and a touchdown. Jefferson played 87% of the snaps and ran a route on 28-of-29 dropbacks against the Chiefs and has now found the end zone twice over the last three weeks. He is worth a look in deep, three-receiver leagues, but that’s about it.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee’s usage was frightening last week. He was questionable coming into the game but the Rams pretty much asked Higbee to block in this game, as he ran a route on just 10-of-29 dropbacks. Perhaps it was simply due to him being on the injury report during the week, but it is a development that makes Higbee extremely risky, especially after failing to see a target in a limited role in a bad offense. It is unfortunate, too, because the matchup against Seattle is elite. The Seahawks are surrendering the second-most fantasy points (18.2), fifth-most targets (7.6) and second-most receiving yards per game (70.3) to opposing tight ends but it might be time to look elsewhere at tight end.

Seahawks

Quarterback

Geno Smith is coming off a 328-yard, two-touchdown game against the Raiders. It was his fifth straight game with multiple touchdown passes, his ninth over the course of the season. Smith has provided a strong floor most weeks this season and while it is unlikely that the Rams push Seattle to score points in this game, the veteran signal caller remains a high-end QB2, especially considering Los Angeles’ defense is completely falling apart at the moment.

Running Back

Two touchdowns saved Kenneth Walker’s day last week, as he rushed for just 26 yards on 14 carries. He’s now rushed for 43 yards over the last two games, as Walker has been pretty boom-or-bust on the ground this season. Among running backs with at least 30 carries this season, Walker ranks fourth in the league in breakaway run rate (49%), though he is also among the league leaders in percentage of runs to go for zero yards. Still, Walker continues to dominate the running back usage in Seattle, especially from in close, as he has handled 100% of the Seahawks carries from inside the 5-yard line this season. The Rams run defense has been mostly strong this season but this overall defense is on the decline, especially without Aaron Donald in the middle. You are starting Walker as a high-end RB2.

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are strong WR2 options every single week. Metcalf has seen more volume as of late, seeing 15 targets last week and nine in the game before. He’s also been the main target when the Seahawks get in the red zone, as Metcalf has seen a healthy 50% of the team’s targets from inside the 10-yard line, as well as 45% of the targets from inside the red zone. Both of those rates are the highest in all of football, giving Metcalf plenty of touchdown equity most weeks. Granted, the matchup does favor Lockett, who will see less Jalen Ramsey based on alignments. Instead, he’ll see coverage from David Long, who is allowing 0.31 fantasy points per coverage route and a 72% catch rate this season. 

Tight End

Per usual, the Seattle tight end usage was essentially an even split last week. Will Dissly played 48 snaps, ran 28 routes and saw three targets, while Noah Fant played 40 snaps, ran 23 routes and also saw three targets. With the Seahawks unlikely to be pushed to score much in this game, Fant and Dissly project as even riskier options than usual.

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

Total: 46.5, SF -4
Pace: SF: 29.73 sec/snap (30th), MIA: 28.2 sec/snap (20th)

What to watch for: Miami LT Terron Armstead could miss this game. For San Francisco, Christian McCaffrey is dealing with a knee issue but expects to fully play on Sunday.

49ers

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo had a quiet game last week, passing for 222 yards and a score, one week after scoring four touchdowns. It was a bit surprising to see Garoppolo attempt 37 passes in a game where the 49ers posted a shutout, but he’s still tossed multiple touchdowns in five of his last seven games. He could have a very strong game here, especially if Miami’s potent offense pushes San Francisco to score. The Dolphins defense is nothing to fear, allowing the seventh-worst completion rate (67.8%), as well as the ninth-worst completion rate off play-action (71.8%). They have also coughed up six touchdowns off the play type, the fifth-most in football. Given how well he’s played as of late and how loaded this San Francisco offense is, Garoppolo will project as a high-end QB2 anytime he has a favorable matchup.

Running Back

This Christian McCaffrey situation needs to be monitored. Last week, he was dealing with some irritation in his knee, which limited him to just 15 touches last week. He fully expects to play and with Elijah Mitchell now out for the next 6-8 weeks, McCaffrey should see most of the work as long as he is healthy. You are obviously still starting CMC as long as he is good to go, which it appears he will be. Miami’s run defense has been pretty strong this season, as 21% of the runs against the Dolphins have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, the fifth-highest rate in football. McCaffrey hasn’t done much on the ground but has been heavily involved in the passing game, seeing nearly 22% of targets since Week 8. It is possible McCaffrey is somewhat limited, which makes him more of a low-end RB1/high-end RB2, though you are still starting him.

Wide Receiver

With San Francisco scoring just 13 points last week, the pass-catchers disappointed. Brandon Aiyuk still led the team with eight targets, catching five passes for 65 yards. He’s now had at least 65 receiving yards in five of his last six games and has straight up been a better fantasy wide receiver than Deebo Samuel over the last month. Aiyuk remains a low-end WR2 against a Dolphins team that is among the league leaders in man coverage, which could bode well for Aiyuk, who is 10th in passer rating when targeted against man coverage this season (134.3). And according to Player Profiler, Aiyuk is averaging 2.31 fantasy points per target against man coverage on the year, the 10th-highest mark in the league. His target rate is also about five percent higher against man coverage than zone coverage. Continue to start him with confidence, while Samuel is also a solid WR2. We could see him get four or five carries with McCaffrey banged up and Mitchell sidelined, especially in the red zone. The ceiling is obviously massive for Samuel, but his floor has been pretty low this season. He has failed to reach 60 receiving yards in seven different games this season but could have some explosive plays this week against Keion Crossen, who is allowing the third-most yards per reception among qualified defensive backs this season (18.9). Meanwhile, Xavien Howard has allowed the sixth-most yards per reception (15.8), as well as the fourth-most yards after the catch (284). 

Tight End

Despite how amazing George Kittle is, the floor remains much lower than it should be. That is just something you are going to have to continue to deal with in this San Francisco offense. Of course, the ceiling is still immense, and he has a great Week 13 matchup, facing a Miami defense that is allowing the third-most fantasy points (15.9), second-most receptions (6.3) and sixth-most receiving yards per game (58.5) per game to opposing tight ends. The Dolphins are also surrendering nearly eight yards per target to the position.

Dolphins

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa has obviously been fantastic this season, and if it weren’t for last week being such a blowout, he likely would have flirted with 300 passing yards and three touchdowns yet again. While he’s clearly played at an MVP level this season, Tagovailoa has certainly benefited from facing some weak pass defenses. In fact, since Week 7, Tagovailoa has faced the Steelers, Lions, Bears, Browns and Texans, who are all bottom-10 pass defenses. Now he has to face an elite San Francisco defense that generates pressure at the league’s eighth-highest rate (24%), and he very well might be facing them without starting left tackle Terron Armstead. And once Armstead left the game last week, both Tua and Skylar Thompson were sacked at will. The 49ers are allowing the second-lowest passing touchdown rate this season (2.5%), as well as the seventh-fewest yards per completion (10.3), so this is easily Tagovailoa’s toughest matchup of the year. However, I am a firm believer in this Miami offense, and I’d still play Tagovailoa as a low-end QB1 here.

Running Back

The efficiency wasn’t as high as many expected, but Jeff Wilson still delivered with a rushing touchdown. He briefly left the game with an injury but was able to return. Raheem Mostert could be back this week, which would likely result in Wilson operating as the 1A in this offense. Losing touches is always less than ideal but especially when facing the toughest run defense in football. San Francisco is allowing just 3.3 yards per rush this season, the fewest in football, while just 6.8% of the runs against this defense have gained 10 or more yards, easily the lowest rate in the league. No running back has even reached 60 rushing yards against this defense on the year, despite facing Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Austin Ekeler and James Conner. In the two games Wilson and Mostert have played together in Miami, Wilson has logged 47% and 28% of the snaps, touching the football 12 and 19 times. He’s a middling flex play, though he’d become a viable RB2 if Mostert can’t play, despite the daunting matchup.

Wide Receiver

Even in a game where Miami’s starters essentially didn’t do anything for most of the second half, Tyreek Hill still caught six passes for 85 yards. Hill leads the NFL in targets per route run rate (33%), while also ranking second in air yards per route run (3.9). You are obviously starting Hill, but it is also good to see how often he is moving around the formation in Mike McDaniel’s offense. Hill has lined up out of the slot 40.2% of the time this season, which means he’ll see plenty of opportunities against a San Francisco defense that is quietly surrendering the second-most receptions (5.6), second-most receiving yards (79.5) and most fantasy points per game (16.9) to opposing pass-catchers from the slot. 

Jaylen Waddle, meanwhile, has been slightly more volatile than Hill this year, though both receivers have been about as safe as it gets. He also gets the much more difficult matchup here, as he primarily plays on the outside, where the 49ers are much better in the secondary. Still, Waddle has at least 85 receiving yards in five of his last six games and projects as a high-end WR2.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki should not be started in most leagues. He continues to split snaps with Durham Smythe, who actually scored last week, and Gesicki has just 10 total targets over the last four weeks. And now he faces a 49ers defense that is coughing up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (9.1).

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Total: 50.5, LV -1
Pace: LV: 27.8 sec/snap (17th), LAC: 25.9 sec/snap (1st)

What to watch for: Mike Williams continues to miss time with an ankle sprain. For the Raiders, Josh Jacobs is dealing with a calf injury but should be good to go.

Raiders

Quarterback

Derek Carr is rolling right now, throwing multiple touchdown passes in each of his last four games. He’s attempted at least 36 passes in every game during that span, though playing in consecutive overtime contests doesn’t hurt. Still, Carr is playing well and gets a home matchup with a banged-up Chargers defense that is allowing the seventh-most points per drive (2.28) this year, while opposing offenses are scoring points on 43% of drives against this defense, the fifth-highest rate in the league. You’d still like more options in the passing game, but Carr has produced just the same and in a contest against a struggling defense, the veteran signal caller is a borderline QB1.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs is coming off a legendary performance in Week 12, rushing for 229 yards and two touchdowns on 33 carries, while adding six receptions for 74 yards. Jacobs put the finishing touches on his huge game with an 86-yard touchdown run in overtime to seal the win, and his performance is even more impressive when you consider that he continues to deal with an ongoing calf injury. Jacobs had an insane 39 touches in this game and now leads the league with an 83% opportunity share on the season. He’s had at least 25 touches in each of the last three games and as long as his calf issue doesn’t sideline him, Jacobs should continue to produce against an awful Chargers defense. Los Angeles is surrendering 3.06 yards before contact per rush, the second-worst rate in the league, as well as the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. 

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams had a bit of a disappointing game Sunday, catching seven passes for 74 yards. Still, Adams was targeted 11 times, giving him four straight games with double-digit targets. During that span, Adams is averaging a gaudy 13.7 targets per game and over the course of the season, he is being targeted on 30% of his routes. His 32.2% target share leads the league, as Adams remains the clear focal point of this passing game. You are obviously starting him, while Mack Hollins is on the flex radar. He caught four passes for 63 yards and a score last week and with Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller sidelined, Hollins should continue to see 5-7 targets each week. 

Tight End

Foster Moreau found the end zone last week, his second touchdown over the last three weeks. His seven targets were his most since Week 8, as Moreau continues to play nearly every snap in Waller’s absence. Since taking over as the Raiders starting tight end, Moreau has posted snap shares of 96%, 100%, 97%, 96%, 100% and 100%, while ranking second among all tight ends in routes run during that span (189). He is also tied for the most end zone targets among all tight ends since Week 7 and against a Chargers defense that is allowing the most yards per reception to opposing tight ends, Moreau sets up as a borderline TE1.

Chargers

Quarterback

Justin Herbert is coming off his best game of the season, passing for 274 yards and three touchdowns, while adding a game-winning two-point conversion. It was Herbert’s first three-touchdown game since Week 2 — Mike Williams is still sidelined, but having more capable pass-catchers has done wonders for Herbert. You’d still like to see this Joe Lombardi offense attack vertically more often, as Herbert is sporting the league’s second-fewest air yards per completion (4.4), as well as the fourth-fewest completed air yards per pass attempt (3.0). Just 9.9% of his pass attempts have traveled 20 yards or more down the field but perhaps this is a spot where Herbert can take some shots down the field. The Raiders are allowing the third-highest completion percentage on deep passes this season (51.3%), as well as three deep passing scores. Las Vegas is also surrendering the fourth-most yards per pass attempt (7.7) and have allowed 10-of-12 signal callers to finish as top-12 quarterbacks against them this season. 

Running Back

Austin Ekeler had 11 receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets last week. I’m not sure what else I need to say. Ekeler has two games with fewer than seven carries over his last three games, yet it hasn’t mattered, as he is on pace to set the single season reception record for a running back. His 22.3% target share leads all running backs and is a top-20 rate in all of football. With an absurd role in the passing game, Ekeler now faces a Raiders defense that is allowing the third-most receptions (6.5), fourth-most targets (7.8) and most receiving yards per game (54.5) to opposing running backs on the year. They have also allowed four receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs, tied for the third-most in football.

Wide Receiver

In his second game back from his hamstring injury, Keenan Allen found the end zone, catching five passes for 49 yards. The veteran wideout ran a route on 49-of-52 dropbacks (94%) and lined up out of the slot 67.3% of the time. Looking like he has finally fully recovered from his hamstring injury, Allen is a top-12 wide receiver for me against a Raiders defense that is coughing up the seventh-most receptions (5.2), third-most receiving yards (76.5) and second-most fantasy points (16.6) per game to opposing wide receivers from the slot this season. When these teams last met back in Week 1, Allen was on pace for a huge game before leaving with an injury, catching four passes for 66 yards on just 13 pass routes. DeAndre Carter, who took over the slot role in Allen’s absence, finished the game with 64 yards and a touchdown.

Joshua Palmer will remain a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 as long as Mike Williams remains sidelined. Since Week 6, Palmer is averaging a healthy 9.4 targets per game, while posting two 100-yard games during that span. Palmer will see plenty of coverage from Sam Webb in this game, who is allowing an insane 0.35 fantasy points per coverage route and 78% catch rate so far this season. 

Tight End

Despite having an elite matchup, Gerald Everett disappointed last week, catching four passes for only 18 yards. It was certainly a letdown, but I’m willing to go back to Everett here, especially if Williams is out. The Raiders defense is awful, especially in the red zone, allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 69.4% of red zone trips this year, the second-highest rate in football. Las Vegas is also coughing up the seventh-most fantasy points (13.9) and fifth-most touchdowns per game (0.55) to opposing tight ends this season, while also allowing the eighth-highest catch rate to the position. Consider Everett a back-end TE1 this week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 53, KC -2
Pace: CIN: 27.67 sec/snap (15th), KC: 26.39 sec/snap (5th)

What to watch for: Ja’Marr Chase should make his return this week, and Joe Mixon is working his way through concussion protocol as well. 

Bengals

Quarterback

Last week, the Bengals leaned on the pass against Tennessee’s elite run defense, which I was actually surprised to see considering Zac Taylor’s track record as a play-caller has been questionable. We could see a similar offensive philosophy this week, especially if Ja’Marr Chase is back, as opposing offenses are sporting the third-highest passing percentage against Kansas City (62.8%). Teams are also averaging 36.5 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs, the third-most in the league. Meanwhile, 69.5% of the yardage against this defense has come through the air, the seventh-highest rate, while 78.5% of the touchdowns scored against the Chiefs have been via the pass, the second-highest rate. Burrow is coming off a solid game, but we know his ceiling is obviously much higher with Chase in the lineup. Still, Burrow is averaging 0.55 fantasy points per dropbacks (eighth), while ranking as the QB4 in fantasy on the season. In a game that should feature plenty of points and passing volume, Burrow pencils in as a top-five signal caller.

Running Back

The expectation is that Joe Mixon returns to the lineup this week, though it isn’t guaranteed. In his absence last week, Samaje Perine drew the start at running back, logging 80% of the snaps, handling 21-of-24 Cincinnati running back touches and running a route on 69% of dropbacks. He unsurprisingly wasn’t very efficient on the ground against Tennessee’s tough run defense, but he found the end zone and added four receptions for 35 yards on seven targets. We know running backs have been very involved in the passing game against Kansas City this season, averaging the second-most receptions (6.7), second-most targets (8.0) and third-most receiving yards per game (46.9), though Perine’s targets likely drop with Chase back. If Mixon is active, he’s a top-12 running back, while Perine would project as a borderline top-15 play if he draws a second consecutive start at running back.

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase hasn’t played since Week 7, as he continues to recover from a hip injury. Chase has been limited in practice over the last two weeks and while he’s expected to return this week, I’d certainly like to see him log a full practice. Still, if Chase is active for the Bengals, he immediately returns to top-10 wide receiver status in fantasy, especially against a Kansas City defense he has crushed lately. He went crazy in Week 17 of last season against the Chiefs, catching 11-of-12 targets for 266 yards and three touchdowns. His upside is unmatched. Tee Higgins, meanwhile, has been huge in Chase’s absence, especially over the last two weeks. During that span, Higgins has posted consecutive 100-yard games, seeing 22 targets. If Chase is back in the lineup, Higgins will remain a high-end WR2 with immense upside. 

Chase’s return makes it easier to get away from Tyler Boyd, who has disappointed in Chase’s absence. Over his last four games, Boyd has failed to reach 50 receiving yards, while scoring just one touchdown. He’ll still be on the WR3/WR4 borderline in this matchup, as he’ll draw coverage from L’Jarius Snead, who is allowing 0.28 fantasy points per coverage route to go along with a 71% catch rate. Snead has also allowed the sixth-most receptions (34), 10th-most receiving yards (273), fourth-most touchdowns (2) and seventh-most yards after the catch (178) in slot coverage. 

Tight End

Hayden Hurst was solid last week, catching 6-of-9 targets for 57 yards. The volume is likely to come down with Chase back but per usual, you are chasing routes in a great offense with Hurst. The veteran tight end ranks fifth at the position in routes run this season (349) and he gets a solid matchup with the Chiefs, who have allowed five touchdown receptions to opposing tight ends, tied for the eighth most in football.

Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes is pretty good. The MVP favorite has now passed for at least 300 yards in six straight games, while reaching the 400-yard mark twice during that span. Mahomes has finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in six games this season, while finishing as a QB1 in nine contests. Cincinnati’s pass defense is not as tough without top defensive back Chidobe Awuzie. I’d probably start Mahomes.

Running Back

With Clyde Edwards-Helaire on injured reserve, Isiah Pacheco held onto his early-down role for the Chiefs, rushing for 69 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. He even caught a pass for 17 yards, though that isn’t something you should bank on, as Pacheco is being targeted on just 5% of his routes, the lowest rate among all running backs. Pacheco played just over half of the snaps on Sunday, logging 28-of-44 early down snaps, while seeing five goal line snaps to Jerick McKinnon’s four. McKinnon is now dealing with a hamstring injury and if he can’t play, it is entirely possible we saw an uptick in third down/two-minute drill usage, which would be amazing. Of course, the Chiefs did add Melvin Gordon to the practice squad, which is something to keep an eye on. Still, Pacheco is averaging a solid 18 touches per game over the last three weeks, keeping him on the high-end flex radar in non-PPR leagues. Cincinnati’s run defense is solid, especially with defensive tackle D.J. Reader healthy. However, Pacheco is the lead back in an elite offense and should see 14-18 carries.

Wide Receiver

In his first game back from a concussion last week, JuJu Smith-Schuster played a limited role, logging just 38% of the snaps. Perhaps the Chiefs were easing him back from a concussion in a game that was not in question at any point but hopefully Smith-Schuster can return to his usual role this weekend. Assuming he does, he’ll be a WR2, especially with Kansas City’s wide receivers still so banged up, as Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney will remain sidelined. Prior to leaving early in Week 10 and being limited last week, Smith-Schuster had seen at least eight targets in all but two games this season.

Meanwhile, Skyy Moore would be really interesting if, you know, the Chiefs actually let him run routes. Because when he does run routes, he draws targets, as the rookie has been targeted on 37% and 40% of his routes over the last two weeks. The problem, however, is that Moore has run a route on just 31-of-84 dropbacks (37%) during that span, while logging 42% and 46% of the snaps. 

Tight End

Just play Travis Kelce. The all-world tight end has 90 receiving yards or a touchdown in all but one game this season. He cannot be stopped. He is inevitable. He ranks eighth in the league in end zone targets (9). He has four 100-yard games. He ranks second in the entire NFL with 56 first-read targets. I’ll stop talking now. Continue to enjoy the best positional advantage in all of fantasy football.

Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys

Total: 44.5, DAL -10.5
Pace: DAL: 27.4 sec/snap (13th), IND: 26.76 sec/snap (7th)

What to watch for: TE Kylen Granson missed last week’s game with an illness but will be back this week. Jelani Woods, meanwhile, is dealing with a shoulder injury.

Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott tossed a pair of interceptions but was otherwise efficient once again on Thanksgiving, completing 21-of-30 passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Prescott has completed at least 70% of his passes in all but one game since returning to the lineup in Week 7. And during that span, Prescott ranks sixth in adjusted completion percentage (79.6%), seventh in passing touchdowns (10), fourth in fantasy points per dropback (0.60) and 10th in yards per pass attempt (8.2). Against a Colts defense that allows the fourth-highest completion percentage in football (68.3%), Prescott should continue to impress, making him a solid QB1 once again.

Running Back

When we last saw Ezekiel Elliott on Thanksgiving, he looked great, rushing for 92 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. His snap share jumped from 29% in Week 11 to 51% in Week 12, while playing 28 snaps on early downs to 24 for Tony Pollard. The two split goal line snaps, with both running backs seeing two carries from inside the 5-yard line since Elliott’s return in Week 11. Pollard still played more snaps and out-carried Elliott 18-16 but didn’t have the same production. The Colts run defense is tough, as they are allowing the second-fewest yards per carry (3.9), while stuffing 22% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the third-highest rate in the league. Just 8.5% of the runs against the Colts have gained 10 or more yards, the third-lowest rate in the league, which isn’t great for Pollard, who ranks sixth in the league in runs of 10-plus yards (23). Both Dallas running backs are RB2 options, with Elliott needing a touchdown, especially considering he has almost zero usage in the passing game right now.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb caught six passes for 106 yards last week and was a shoelace away from an amazing touchdown catch. He was targeted 11 times — on the season, Lamb has dominated the targets in Dallas, sporting the league’s fifth-highest target share (31.2%), third-highest air yards share (41%) and second-highest targets per route run rate (32%). You hope the Colts can push Dallas to score in this game for Lamb to see double-digit targets again, though Indianapolis has been a pass funnel defense this season. Lamb remains an easy top-12 wide receiver, especially with Prescott playing as well as he is.

Don’t look now but Michael Gallup is pushing WR3 status. Last week, he ran a route on 29-of-31 dropbacks (94%), his highest route participation of the season. Gallup caught five passes for 63 yards on a healthy eight targets and while this isn’t the best matchup to roll with him against a zone-heavy Colts defense, make sure he is on a fantasy roster. The usage is on the rise and if the Cowboys don’t add Odell Beckham, Gallup will have top-35 upside the rest of the season.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz scored two touchdowns last week, as he continues to thrive with Prescott under center. He was only targeted four times last game, but you’ll take it if he’s scoring multiple touchdowns. In games alongside Prescott this season, Schultz has finished as the TE6, TE11, TE5, TE3, TE20 and TE1 in fantasy. The Colts are allowing the third-highest catch rate to opposing tight ends this season and Schultz could be back in the 7- to 10-target range against this zone defense. Start him with confidence.

Colts

Quarterback

Matt Ryan didn’t complete his first pass last week until the second quarter, and he failed to reach 200 passing yards, while turning the ball over twice. Ryan already has virtually no upside but especially against a Cowboys team that has allowed the fewest 20-plus-yard passing plays in the NFL, while generating pressure at the highest rate in the league (30.2%). Ryan, meanwhile, has been dreadful when under pressure this season, completing just over 50% of his passes, averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt and throwing a league-leading eight interceptions in the split.

Running Back

If the Colts are going to pull off the upset here, it’ll have to be because of Jonathan Taylor. He rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries last week and now that he is fully recovered from his ankle injury, Taylor is seeing elite volume, averaging 24 touches per game over his last three games. During that span, he has played over 90% of the snaps twice, while the receiving work should remain solid with Ryan checking down as often as he is. 49.1% of Ryan’s pass attempts have come within 0-9 yards, the sixth-highest rate in the league. As for the matchup, you can certainly run on Dallas, who are allowing the eighth-most yards per carry (4.7) and ninth-most rushing yards per game this season (131.9). They also allow plenty of explosive runs, as 14.85 of the runs against the Cowboys have gone for 10-plus yards, the fourth-highest rate in football.

Wide Receiver

This is a really tough matchup for Michael Pittman, but volume keeps him in the low-end WR2 discussion. He caught 7-of-11 targets for 61 yards and a touchdown last week and in games alongside Ryan this season, Pittman is averaging just under 10 targets and 15.8 PPR points per game, compared to 7.5 targets and 8.7 PPR points per game without Ryan. Pittman will see plenty of coverage from Trevon Diggs in this game, who has shadowed three times this season (A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Allen Lazard). In those three instances, Diggs allowed just four total receptions for 39 yards and zero touchdowns, though he hasn’t exclusively shadowed this season. You’d love to see more than two deep targets but that just isn’t a strength of this Colts passing game right now. I’m still starting Pittman as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 but am certainly tempering expectations. 

Tight End

With Kylen Granson out last week, rookie tight end Jelani Woods came out of nowhere to catch eight passes for 98 yards. However, Granson will be back this week, while Woods himself is dealing with a shoulder injury. If all three Colts tight ends are active, it will remain a committee. And if only two Colts tight ends are active, it will remain a committee. Thanks, but no thanks. 

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 40.5, TB -3.5
Pace: TB: 25.9 sec/snap (2nd), NO: 28.3 sec/snap (22nd)

What to watch for: TB OT Tristan Wirfs will miss the next few weeks with an injury, while Leonard Fournette will return to the lineup. For the Saints, we’ll see if Marshon Lattimore is back in the lineup.

Buccaneers

Quarterback

If possible, I’d look to avoid Tom Brady this week. The ceiling has already been limited, as Brady ranks 26th in fantasy points per dropback (0.36) and 29th in passing touchdown rate (3.0%). But things really don’t look good for him here. For starters, the Tampa Bay offensive line took yet another huge hit last week, as Tristan Wirfs will miss time. Brady, who already leads the league in average time to throw this season at 2.26 seconds, might have to get the ball out even faster going forward, which means fewer attempts deep down the field. Meanwhile, the Saints defense is getting healthier, which is bad news for Brady, who has struggled against New Orleans since joining the NFC South. In fact, in three seasons with the Bucs, Brady is averaging just 22.5 completions, 1.5 touchdowns, 1.3 interceptions, 237.6 passing yards and 16 fantasy points per game in six meetings against the Saints. That is nearly a six-point drop in fantasy scoring, as well as a 63-yard drop in passing yards. The saints are sporting the league’s fifth-lowest pressure rate at 17.8% but I do think they could cause some problems here. Brady is a QB2.

QBs I’d start over Brady: Trevor Lawrence, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers

Running Back

With Leonard Fournette sidelined last week, rookie Rachaad White drew the start at running back. And despite not scoring a touchdown, he smashed, scoring nearly 20 PPR points. His role was amazing, as he played 90% of the snaps, handled 23-of-27 Tampa Bay running back touches and ran a route on 76% of dropbacks. White caught all nine of his targets for 45 yards but with Fournette practicing in full, it appears he will be back in the lineup. Of course, White was already emerging as the 1A in this backfield, as Tampa Bay beat reporters talked about him still starting at running back last week whether Fournette played or not. Still, Fournette isn’t suddenly going to ride the bench going forward, which makes both Bucs running backs risky RB2 options here. 

Wide Receiver

You are obviously starting Chris Godwin, who dominated last week, catching 12-of-13 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown. After a scoreless streak, Godwin has now found the end zone in consecutive games, while providing one of the safest floors in all of fantasy as of late. Since returning from his hamstring injury all the way back in Week 4, Godwin ranks fourth in receptions (57), sixth in targets (78), first in screen targets (17) and first in screen receptions (16). He has caught at least six passes in every single game since Week 4.

The most interesting matchup of the week lies with Mike Evans, who is always an intriguing player ahead of a meeting with the Saints. His history with Marshon Lattimore is well-documented, and if the Saints defensive back is active, Evans legitimately carries some risk in this game. Over his last eight games against the Saints, Evans is averaging just 4.1 targets, 2.0 receptions, 32.6 receiving yards and 7.5 PPR points per game. Evans struggled last week, catching just two passes for 31 yards. The chances were there, however, as Evans saw a healthy 130 air yards. He just couldn’t convert those opportunities, as he failed to catch any of his three deep targets against the Browns. If Lattimore is active, Evans is a volatile WR2.

Tight End

Don’t start Cameron Brate this week. Sure, he’s the TE1 in this offense but has just 23 yards over his last two games and now faces a Saints defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points (7.5), fourth-fewest receptions (3.7) and third-fewest receiving yards (33.6) per game to opposing tight ends. Meanwhile, only one tight end has found the end zone against the Saints this year.

Saints

Quarterback

Andy Dalton and the Saints offense were a trainwreck last week. Dalton completed 18-of-29 passes for 204 yards and zero touchdowns, one week after having a stellar performance against the Rams. The Bucs are allowing the third-fewest yards per pass attempt this season (6.5), as well as the sixth-fewest yards per completion (10.2). Look elsewhere for a potential streaming quarterback.

Running Back

It has been a rough stretch for Alvin Kamara lately. After scoring three touchdowns back in Week 8, Kamara has scored just 38.6 total fantasy points over his last four games, while failing to find the end zone. The usage in the passing game remains solid, as Kamara has seen at least four targets in every game this season. It is also salvaging his fantasy performances, as he’s rushed for fewer than 4.0 yards per carry in five straight games. He is coming off a brutal game where he lost two fumbles, one of which came at the goal line. The Saints offense is struggling, while Kamara’s touchdown upside isn’t there, especially considering he ranks 33rd among all running backs in red zone carries (15) and 47th in carries from inside the five-yard line (2). Consider Kamara a solid RB2 this week, though he isn’t a must-start player if you somehow have tremendous depth at running back.

Wide Receiver

Chris Olave remains the lead wideout for the Saints, sporting a 37% air yardage share (seventh), 28% target rate (eighth) and 4.1 air yards per route run (first). There is still so much upside with Olave, who also trails only Tyreek Hill in deep targets on the year with 23. He does draw a tough matchup against Jamel Dean, who is allowing just 0.13 fantasy points per coverage route and a 48% catch rate this season. Still, Olave saw nine targets last week, is the WR14 on the season and should be viewed as, at worst, a low-end WR2 ahead of this NFC South showdown.

Tight End

Juwan Johnson was so close to finding the end zone for the fourth consecutive game last week, but he couldn’t hold onto an end zone target in double coverage. The zero fantasy points definitely hurt but if Johnson is active, he remains a viable streaming option. Of course, we do need to keep an eye on his status, as he didn’t practice Thursday with an ankle injury. It is also worth noting that Johnson played a season-low 47% of the snaps last week, while Taysom Hill played a season-high 49% of the snaps. Hill played a season-high eight snaps as an inline tight end, while lining up out wide or in the slot 11 times. Tampa Bay is a friendly matchup for opposing tight ends, surrendering the fourth-most receptions per game to the position this season (5.4). Keep an eye on Johnson’s status over the weekend.