Week 11 Fantasy Football Game By Game Breakdown

Week 10 was pretty rough in the fantasy football world.

We saw multiple key injuries that will keep players on the sidelines for a few weeks, potentially longer. And it was an especially rough week for me considering I made the trip to Buffalo just to have my hopes and dreams shattered. And to add illness to insult, I am now dealing with a pretty nasty cold.

Fun.

Anyway, let’s be a little more upbeat, shall we? Week 11 is upon us and while plenty of players will be missing from our fantasy lineups, we also have some breakout players that are gaining some momentum.

Week 11 byes: Jacksonville, Miami, Seattle, Tampa Bay

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers

Total: 41, GB -3
Pace: GB: 29.65 sec/snap (27th), TEN: 30.07 sec/snap (31st)

What to watch for: Aaron Jones and Christian Watson will be limited in practice but are fully expected to play Thursday.

Packers

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers is coming off his best performance of the season Sunday, passing for 224 yards and three touchdowns against a tough Dallas defense. He put up those numbers on just 20 pass attempts (even more impressive) and Rodgers has now scored multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games. He finally got a breakout performance from rookie Christian Watson (more on that later) and now faces a Tennessee pass funnel defense on a short week. Through 10 weeks this season, 76.2% of the yardage and 84.2% of the touchdowns scored against the Titans this season have come through the air, both the highest rates in football. Meanwhile, only the Atlanta Falcons have surrendered more total air yards than the Titans this season, and they’re coughing up a healthy 6.3 air yards per completion. If Green Bay struggles to establish the run this week, Rodgers will be forced to win this game for the Packers. Regardless, he’s definitely eclipsing his 20 pass attempts from last week and is a high-end QB2 for me this week.

Running Back

After missing most of the second half of Week 9 with an ankle issue, Aaron Jones was full go last week, rushing for 138 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. It was Jones’ second 20-carry game of the season, as he continues to distance himself from AJ Dillon. Jones has been as efficient as ever, ranking sixth in runs of 10 or more yards (20), seventh in runs of 15-plus yards (9) and fourth in missed tackles forced (42). If you take away Week 9 against Detroit where he left early, Jones has now logged at least 67% of the offensive snaps in each of his last three games, while Dillon has been hovering around the 35-40% range. This is a very tough matchup, as the Titans have surrendered a league-low one rushing touchdown so far this season, as just 10% of the touchdowns against this defense have come on the ground, easily the lowest rate in football. Meanwhile, opposing offenses are only running the football 32.9% of the time against Tennessee this season, the lowest rate in football. However, Jones is still a must-start fantasy running back who appears to be closer to the 18- to 20-touch range, rather than the 12-14 we saw earlier in the year.

Dillon, meanwhile, is an extremely risky flex play. He did see 13 carries last week but no work in the passing game, and given how inefficient he’s been, it is tough to envision a scenario where he thrives on limited volume against one of the league’s top run defenses.

Wide Receiver

Well hello there, Christian Watson.

After showing flashes but struggling with drops and injuries for most of his rookie season, Watson exploded onto the scene last week, hauling in four balls for 107 yards and three touchdowns. He was targeted eight times and finally made it through an entire game, which led to a career-high 84% snap share, with the rookie running a route on about 88% of dropbacks. Watson hauled in touchdown passes of 58 and 39 yards in this game, seeing four total targets 20 yards or more down the field, tied for the most among any player in Week 10. Coming out of college, we knew Watson was going to make splash plays for this offense, and those splash plays could continue against the Titans, who are coughing up the second-most air yards in football this year and have allowed five touchdown passes of 20-plus yards, tied for the third most in the league. Watson obviously needs to be added in all formats and can be deployed as an upside WR3, but just understand that he still doesn’t present the highest floor in the world, especially since he’s unlikely to see a 42% target share again.

Allen Lazard had his worst game of the season last week, hauling in three passes for 45 yards. Of course, when your team only throws 20 passes, it is difficult to post strong numbers, especially with Watson dominating like he did. Lazard still has at least 50 yards or a touchdown in all but one game this season, and even after Watson’s breakout campaign, I’d still expect Lazard to lead Green Bay in targets most weeks. With the Titans coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season, Lazard remains a high-end WR3, while actually pushing WR2 status given how many wide receivers are unavailable this weekend.

Tight End

Robert Tonyan continues to play about 60% of the snaps and run most of the routes, but it hasn’t led to much fantasy production. He caught just one pass for eight yards last week and has eclipsed 40 yards just once all year long, which is the same as the number of touchdowns he’s scored. Tennessee is allowing 13.6 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, the ninth most in football, making this a favorable spot for Tonyan. However, the floor/ceiling combination is pretty low.

Titans

Quarterback

After a two-game absence, Ryan Tannehill returned last week against the Broncos. The veteran signal caller completed 19-of-36 passes for 255 yards and a pair of touchdowns, with the 36 passes a season-high. Tannehill is still averaging just over 13 fantasy points per game on the year and remains an uninspiring fantasy option on the road in Lambeau Field, where he’ll face a Green Bay defense that is allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (13.2). 

Running Back

Derrick Henry is coming off his worst game of the season, rushing for just 53 yards on 19 carries. Things should be a lot better this time around, as Henry faces a vulnerable Green Bay run defense that is stuffing just 12% of carries at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, good for the second-lowest rate in the league. The Packers are coughing up the seventh-most rushing yards per game on the season (140.6), while 43.9% of the yardage against Green Bay has come via the run, the third-lowest rate in the league. The best avenue for success against Green Bay is to run the football, which is an avenue the Titans find themselves on seemingly at all times, so they’ll be happy to oblige. 

Wide Receiver

In his first game back since Week 4, Treylon Burks caught three passes for 24 yards last week. He was targeted six times, logging 56% of the snaps and running a route on 76% of dropbacks. Robert Woods, meanwhile, continued to struggle, hauling in 2-of-7 targets for just 10 yards, giving him fewer than 40 receiving yards in all but one game this season. If you are starting any pass-catchers from the Titans, it would be Burks, simply because he can actually do more with limited volume due to his ability to make plays after the catch. However, you still aren’t likely starting him, especially ahead of a matchup with Jaire Alexander. (We are not banking on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine repeating his multi-score performance.)

Tight End

Austin Hooper caught 5-of-7 targets for 41 yards Sunday. It was his best game of the season, which simply shows how little fantasy relevance the veteran tight end has, especially in this offense. Hooper is still sharing snaps with not only Geoff Swaim, but also Chigoziem Okonkwo. Look elsewhere for a tight end streaming option. 

Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans

Total: 40.5, WAS -3.5
Pace: HOU: 28.8 sec/snap (25th), WAS: 28.45 sec/snap (24th)

What to watch for: Chase Young is expected to make his 2022 debut for Washington.

Texans

Quarterback

We’re 10 weeks into the season, and Davis Mills has posted just one fantasy finish above QB16, posting five games outside the top-20 signal callers. You shouldn’t be relying on him in most fantasy formats, especially with Washington expected to get Chase Young back on an already-loaded defensive line. 

Running Back

Dameon Pierce continues to be the heartbeat of this entire Houston offense. The rookie continued his stellar inaugural NFL campaign in Week 10, rushing for 94 yards on 17 carries and adding two catches for 28 yards. Pierce has rushed for at least 90 yards in five of his last six games, continuing to demonstrate tremendous elusiveness with 0.32 avoided tackles per attempt, tied for the fourth-best mark in the league. He has forced 53 missed tackles this season, second to only Nick Chubb, and his 3.60 yards after contact per attempt ranks 10th among qualified running backs. Pierce has handled 80% of Houston’s running back carries this season, and this team will continue to feed him the football, regardless of game script. Averaging a healthy 20.7 touches per game, Pierce will remain a rock-solid RB2 against a good Washington run defense that is allowing less than 2.0 yards before first contact per rush this season.

Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins both returned to Houston’s lineup last week. Cooks hauled in 4-of-7 targets for 37 yards and had a 19-yard touchdown called back. Collins, meanwhile, did find the end zone, finishing the game with five catches for 49 yards on a team-high 10 targets. Cooks has been extremely disappointing this season, scoring just one touchdown and failing to see double-digit targets in a game since Week 2. He is sitting at around 7-8 targets each week, but last year, Cooks saw at least 25% of Houston targets in about half of their games. The veteran does have the more favorable matchup here, as he’ll predominantly see coverage from Kendall Fuller, who is allowing 0.26 fantasy points per coverage route this season, while also allowing the fifth-most receiving yards in coverage (462). Cooks is a WR3 with a middling ceiling, while Collins is a flex play. Plenty of talented wide receivers are either on bye or injured this week, making Collins a viable replacement. Benjamin St-Juste has been Washington’s top defensive back this season, allowing a 52% catch rate, though he has allowed 469 receiving yards in coverage, the fourth most in football. When he allows receptions, wideouts make them count, as St-Juste is allowing 15.6 yards per reception (11th). That bodes well for Collins, who is averaging 15.3 yards per reception (20th), and his 11.6 yards before the catch per reception ranks eighth.

Tight End

Brevin Jordan was a healthy scratch last week, but the Texans still went with a committee approach at tight end, with Jordan Akins, O.J. Howard and Teagan Quitoriano all logging at least 40% of the snaps. I am officially admitting defeat on my Brevin Jordan hype during the offseason.

Commanders

Quarterback

Taylor Heinicke wasn’t asked to do much last week, but he did enough to help Washington upset the then-undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. He completed just 17-of-29 passes for 211 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception. He had scored multiple touchdowns in all three starts prior to this game, and with Washington having won three of four with him under center, Heinicke will remain the starting quarterback in Washington for at least one more week, even with Carson Wentz healthy. That means Heinicke will once again find himself on the streaming radar against a Houston defense that is coughing up the fourth-most yards (36.1) and sixth-most plays (6.3) per drive in the league. 

Running Back

The Commanders shockingly dominated time of possession in their win over the Eagles, as they demonstrated a clear game plan to run the football and keep Philadelphia’s offense off the field. It worked, as the Commanders possessed the ball for a whopping 40:24, compared to just 19:36 for the Eagles. Brian Robinson carried the ball 26 times for 86 yards and a touchdown, while Antonio Gibson recorded 14 carries for 44 yards and a score. Both running backs saw three goal-line snaps. Robinson played 6-of-7 snaps in the two-minute drill, it was mostly due to the fact that Gibson briefly left the game with an injury on the first play of their two-minute drill to end the half. With J.D. McKissic sidelined, Gibson still played 11-of-12 third-down snaps in this game, giving him 18-of-19 third downs over the last two weeks. He’s seen at least three targets in each of the last seven games, ranking 11th among running backs in routes run over the last two weeks (36). Both Washington running backs will be on the RB2 borderline against the awful Houston run defense that has allowed five 100-yard rushing games this season, as well as the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. We also just saw Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell combine for 115 yards and two touchdowns against Houston back in Week 9. Gibson is a low-end RB2 in PPR leagues ahead of this matchup, while Robinson is a high-end flex who has RB2 upside.

Washington RBs since Week 9

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin appears to enjoy playing with Taylor Heinicke.

McLaurin caught eight passes for 128 yards on 11 targets Monday night and has now led the Commanders in targets in all four games with Heinicke under center, something he failed to do in any game with Carson Wentz. In the last four games with Heinicke as the starter, McLaurin is sporting a 31.8% target share, handling 55.8% of Washington’s air yards, rates that rank seventh and first, respectively, in the league during that stretch. And in those four contests, McLaurin is averaging 9.0 targets, 6.0 receptions, 92.5 receiving yards and 16.5 PPR points per game, compared to 6.1 targets, 3.7 receptions, 61 yards and 11 PPR points per game with Wentz under center. McLaurin now ranks sixth among all wideouts with 16 deep targets on the season and has eclipsed 100 yards in two of his last three games. Houston’s pass defense has been strong this season but a lot of it has to do with the fact that teams are just running the ball at will against the Texans. McLaurin is a top-12 wide receiver with Heinicke under center again this week.

Curtis Samuel has had exactly four targets in each of his last three games, as his target totals have dropped since Heinicke has taken the reins. Washington is at least continuing to scheme touches for Samuel, who remains among the leaders at the wide receiver position in pre-snap motion, while he’s lined up in the backfield 14 times over the last four weeks. We did see rookie wideout Jahan Dotson return from a hamstring injury last week, logging 41% of the snaps and running a route on 45% of dropbacks. When he was healthy to start the year, Washington was among the league-leaders in 11 personnel usage, but they are also running the football a lot more as of late. Dotson’s playing time should increase going forward, especially if the Commanders get back to playing more three-wide sets.

Tight End

Hey now. Logan Thomas got on the board last week, catching two passes for 12 yards. After posting consecutive goose eggs in Weeks 8 and 9, Thomas saw four targets Monday, logging 73% of the snaps (his highest snap share since Week 4) and running a route on about 79% of dropbacks. In a game where Washington may only have to attempt 26 or 27 passes, Thomas projects as a middling TE2 with an extremely low floor.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts

Total: 45, PHI -6.5
Pace: IND: 27.1 sec/snap (10th), PHI: 27.17 sec/snap (11th)

What to watch for: Matt Ryan returned to QB for the Colts last week. For Philadelphia, Dallas Goedert will miss some time with a shoulder injury, landing on IR this week.

Colts

Quarterback

In his first game as the Colts head coach, Jeff Saturday gave Matt Ryan the start, his first since Week 7. The Indianapolis offense was much improved from Week 9 (when they averaged 2.0 yards per play), and Ryan had a strong outing, completing 21-of-28 passes for 222 yards and a touchdown, adding 38 rushing yards and an additional score on the ground. Relying on a career-long 39-yard run from Ryan seems unwise, but it is pretty clear that the best thing for this offense is Ryan under center, and that should continue going forward. Ryan is going to help all of the players in this offense but isn’t an ideal start against an Eagles defense that is allowing the fourth-lowest passing touchdown rate in the league at 3.1%, while only the Broncos are surrendering fewer yards per pass attempt than Philadelphia (5.7).

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor finally reminded the fantasy community just how good he is Sunday. Taylor rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries last week, adding two receptions for 16 yards. Taylor logged 60-of-64 snaps (94%), handling 24-of-28 running back touches for Indianapolis (86%). Perhaps most importantly, the star running back didn’t aggravate his ankle injury. We’ll see if the playing time and usage are quite as high if Deon Jackson is active this week, but I don’t envision a scenario where Taylor comes off the field very much, especially with Nyheim Hines now in Buffalo. His Week 11 matchup with the Eagles looked bad earlier in the year, but Philadelphia is getting gashed on the ground right now. Just 14% of runs against the Eagles have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the fifth-worst rate in football, as they continue to miss defensive tackle Jordan Davis in the middle of that defensive line. With Davis sidelined over the last two weeks, the Eagles have allowed 139 rushing yards to Dameon Pierce in Week 9, as well as 130 rushing yards and two scores to Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson last week. Taylor is back to being a top-seven fantasy running back.

Notable RB performances vs. PHI since Week 6

Wide Receiver

It was another low-ceiling game from Michael Pittman last week, as he caught seven passes for 53 yards. It was his fourth consecutive game with fewer than 60 receiving yards. Pittman has failed to find the end zone since Week 1. On the other hand, he has seen at least nine targets in six games this season, and the Indianapolis offense looks much more promising with Ryan under center. This is obviously a tough matchup, as Darius Slay and James Bradberry are arguably the top defensive back duo in the NFL. Slay is only allowing 0.12 fantasy points per coverage route this season to go along with a 47% catch rate in coverage. He is also allowing a reception every 15.2 coverage snaps, a top-10 rate among qualified defensive backs, making this a very difficult spot for Pittman, who projects as a high-end WR3.

Ryan’s return also helped Parris Campbell, who hauled in 7-of-9 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown last week. After seeing seven combined targets in the two games with Sam Ehlinger under center, Campbell saw nine targets from Ryan in Week 10, after seeing 11 and 12 targets in Weeks 6 and 7 right before Ryan was benched. Campbell is healthy and enjoying a career season, and while this isn’t the best matchup, it isn’t quite as tough if slot defensive back Avonte Maddox, who missed Week 10, remains sidelined. Targets continue to flow toward the middle of the field against Philadelphia, as they are allowing the most targets per game to the slot this season (10.0). 

Tight End

The Colts have used three tight ends for most of the year, though they mostly played Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson last week, as Jelani Woods missed Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury. Alie-Cox played 62% of the snaps, his highest snap share in a game since Week 4, but split routes right down the middle with Granson. Targets tend to funnel towards the middle of the field against the Eagles but even if Woods remains sidelined this week, this still isn’t a situation to target for fantasy purposes right now.

Eagles

Quarterback

Seemingly the only thing that can stop Jalen Hurts right now? His own defense.

The Eagles defense couldn’t get off the field Monday, limiting the offense to less than 20 minutes of possession. As a result (along with a pair of fumbles), Hurts finished the game with just 175 passing yards and 26 pass attempts, though he still posted terrific fantasy numbers, throwing a pair of touchdowns and rushing for one. His interception was a perfectly thrown ball that went through the hands of A.J. Brown and into those of a Washington safety, and Hurts lost two possessions due to Philadelphia fumbles. He still scored over 20 fantasy points and remains an every-week top-three quarterback. The Eagles offense should be on the field a lot more this week and even with Dallas Goedert sidelined, Hurts will continue to provide an outstanding combination of floor and ceiling.

Running Back

Miles Sanders had just one touch in the first half of Monday’s game against Washington. The Eagles looked to establish the run in the second half, and Sanders ultimately finished the game with 12 carries for 54 yards — per usual, Sanders was efficient when running the football. For the first time all year long, the Eagles were playing from behind, which is a nightmare scenario for Sanders, who doesn’t play on third-and-long and has 11 receptions all year long. A more positive gamescript should lead to Sanders seeing 17 or 18 carries again, but this isn’t the easiest spot, facing a Colts defense that is allowing just 3.8 yards per carry on the year, the second-best mark in the league. The Eagles, however, can run on anyone behind that elite offensive line that generates as many yards before contact as any team in football. But because he doesn’t catch passes, Sanders likely has to find the end zone to have anything close to a ceiling week. He’s a fine RB2 option.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown caught just one pass for seven yards Monday — it was frustrating, but it was likely nothing more than a blip on the radar in a weird game for the Eagles offense. Brown still has a healthy 29.2% target share on the season, and he’s seen 43.1% of the team’s air yards, the third-highest rate in the league. This is an interesting matchup, as Brown has seen this zone-heavy Colts defense plenty during his time with the Titans. He hauled in 10-of-11 targets for 155 yards and a score against the Colts in Week 8 of last season. So far in 2022, Indianapolis is coughing up the sixth-most yards after the catch in football (1,196), which bodes well for Brown, who is averaging 6.3 yards after the catch per reception this season. There will be plenty of YAC potential for Brown here, who remains an easy top-10 wideout.

It won’t be DeVonta Smith’s birthday again Sunday, which likely hurts his fantasy upside. Smith caught six passes for 39 yards and a touchdown on his birthday Monday and saw over 30% of Philadelphia’s targets. He should continue to see plenty of looks, especially with Goedert out, but you’d like to see more yardage from Smith, who has been held under 40 receiving yards in each of his last three games. Of course, he lost 14 yards and a fumble on the final play of the game against Washington, but Smith is a strong WR3 play with WR2 upside here.

Tight End

With Dallas Goedert sidelined for the next few weeks, Jack Stoll will likely operate as the lead tight end for Philadelphia. Goedert has been one of the most efficient tight ends in all of football, ranking top-five at the position in yards per route run (1.99), first in yards per target (10.5), second in yards per reception (12.7) and first in yards after the catch per reception (8.4) but Stoll isn’t going to be nearly as efficient on less volume, making him a player you can likely overlook going forward. The matchup is favorable if you are looking to Stoll as a value play in DFS, as the Colts are allowing 0.50 touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends, the eighth most in the league.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons

Total: 50, ATL -3
Pace: ATL: 29.72 sec/snap (28th), CHI: 27.93 sec/snap (21st)

What to watch for: Khalil Herbert has been placed on IR with a hip injury. 

Falcons

Quarterback

Last Thursday was an ugly game, but Marcus Mariota found a way to score 18 fantasy points. The unsustainable efficiency has come down over the last two weeks, though Mariota continues to provide a solid floor, as he’s rushed for at least 30 yards in six games this season. He is averaging 6.3 carries, 1.4 red zone carries and 35 rushing yards per game this season and faces a Chicago defense that is surrendering the sixth-most rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers this season (23.9). The Bears have also allowed four rushing touchdowns to the quarterback position, tied for the most in the league, while also allowing the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.7) and the ninth-highest completion rate (66.7%), making this a very good matchup for Mariota, especially since they struggle to defend play-action passes. Chicago has allowed eight touchdown passes off play-action this season, the most in football. That bodes well for Mariota, who leads the NFL in play-action dropback rate at 45.2%. Mariota is arguably my top streaming signal caller for Week 11.

Running Back

After watching Cordarrelle Patterson rush for two touchdowns in Week 9, the Falcons limited him to just 38% of the snaps and six touches last Thursday. I’m guessing Atlanta was limiting Patterson on the short week after just returning from a stint on injured reserve — as long as he returns to his Week 9 role (at the very least), Patterson will be a borderline must-start running back. The Bears have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, the second-most in the league, while also coughing up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Of course, there is still some risk that the Falcons continue to deploy a committee approach at running back, but Patterson is obviously the most efficient player from this backfield. 

Wide Receiver

Drake London found the end zone last week, his first touchdown since Week 3. He caught 5-of-6 targets for 38 yards, as he continues to post a low yardage floor, failing to eclipse 40 yards in a game since Week 3. London’s 27% target share is a top-10 mark among wideouts, which sounds good on the surface, but a 27% target share in an offense that attempts just 23.1 passes per game isn’t all that exciting. A matchup with the Bears is strong, especially since London should avoid Jaylon Johnson for much of this game. However, he remains a low-floor flex play in this offense.

Tight End

The good news? Kyle Pitts is being targeted.

The bad news? Most of the targets aren’t catchable.

Over the last two weeks, Pitts has a healthy 15 targets, though he’s only hauled in four passes for 55 scoreless yards. During that two-week stretch, Pitts ranks second among all pass-catchers with 343 air yards, handling a whopping 49.2% of Atlanta’s air yards during that span. Just 54.7% of his targets this season have been catchable, the second-lowest rate among all wide receivers and tight ends with at least 20 targets on the season. There is still a massive ceiling on the horizon, especially with this type of usage and if he starts to connect on these deep targets, we could be looking at a 100-yard, one-touchdown game. Of course, when those looks aren’t converted, well, you get the stat lines he’s been providing as of late.

Bears

Quarterback

It’s Justin Fields’ world, and we’re all just living in it.

After finishing as the QB1 in fantasy in Week 9, Fields did it again in Week 10, rushing for 147 yards and two scores and adding 167 passing yards and two more touchdowns. Since Week 7, he is the clear QB1 in all of fantasy, averaging 93.4 rushing yards, 8.5 designed rushing attempts and 32.8 fantasy points per game during that span. He is averaging an unheard-of 1.01 fantasy points per dropback during that stretch, as the Chicago offense is (finally) running through Fields. Fields is now sixth in the entire NFL in rushing yards with 749 and appears to be the ultimate fantasy football cheat code at the moment. Don’t expect him to slow down against a poor Atlanta defense that is allowing opponents to score points on 44.7% of drives this season, the second-worst rate in football. The Falcons are also generating pressure at the lowest rate in the league (10.8%), while allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (18.4). 

Running Back

David Montgomery was in jeopardy of losing touches to Khalil Herbert, who has simply been far more efficient this season. And that was the case again Sunday before Herbert left with a hip injury and did not return. Herbert has been placed on injured reserve, paving the way for Montgomery to dominate this Chicago backfield going forward. It also helps that Chicago’s offense is moving the ball well and scoring plenty of points as of late and Montgomery should be in line for 17-20 touches per game, with Trestan Ebner checking in on some passing downs. The Falcons have been destroyed by running backs as of late, surrendering two huge games to D’Onta Foreman, a pair of touchdowns to Austin Ekeler and nearly 100 scrimmage yards and a score to Joe Mixon since Week 7. Consider Montgomery a volume-based RB2 with Herbert sidelined.

Wide Receiver

Darnell Mooney caught all four of his targets for 57 yards last week, giving him at least 50 receiving yards in six of his last seven games. Mooney took a backseat to Cole Kmet last week but is still a high-upside WR3 ahead of a stellar matchup with an Atlanta defense that is coughing up the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the season. A.J. Terrell could be back this week, but he’s struggled for much of the season, surrendering a league-leading seven touchdowns in coverage on the year, which has resulted in 0.41 fantasy points per coverage route. Mooney has also been in the slot 65.2% of the time in the two weeks since the Bears added Chase Claypool, so he’d likely avoid Terrell for most of this game anyway. 

Claypool, meanwhile, only logged 31% of the snaps in his second game with the Bears, running a route on just 27% of dropbacks. Once his playing time increases, it could push Mooney to the perimeter more, but we’ve seen him able to win down the field from the outside to start his career. The matchup is obviously stellar for Claypool, as the Falcons are allowing the third-most fantasy points (15.3) per game to opposing wide receivers on the left side of the formation, but Claypool is obviously a massive boom-or-bust play.

Tight End

After failing to score a single touchdown in 2021, Cole Kmet has now scored five touchdowns over the last three weeks, including consecutive two-touchdown games. He’s taken advantage of some fantastic matchups against the Lions and Dolphins, but a matchup with the Falcons doesn’t worry me at all. Since Week 8, Kmet ranks seventh in all of football with three end zone targets and on the season, he has seen 36.4% of Chicago’s targets from inside the 10-yard line, the 10th-highest rate in all of football. The Falcons, meanwhile, are allowing the third-most receptions (6.0), sixth-most receiving yards (59.0), second-most targets (8.4) and eighth-most fantasy points (13.7) per game to opposing tight ends this season. Kmet should be viewed as a back-end TE1, but just remember that he could really underwhelm if the touchdown streak ends here.

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills

Total: 43, BUF -8
Pace: BUF: 27.35 sec/snap (14th), CLE: 27.82 sec/snap (18th)

What to watch for: This game could feature upward of two feet of snow.

Bills

Quarterback

Despite dealing with an elbow injury, Josh Allen played Sunday but continued to struggle with turnovers, throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble. Allen still had a good fantasy outing behind 330 passing yards, a touchdown and 84 rushing yards, but he’s now thrown six interceptions over the last three games, as Buffalo’s offense has fallen asleep in the second half of games. In fact, the Bills haven’t scored a second-half touchdown since Week 6. It is weird to see Allen struggling so much in the red zone, an area where he had been elite coming into the season. Weather is likely to play a role in this game, but if Allen is starting, I am starting him, especially considering he is averaging 7.6 rushing attempts, 1.7 red zone carries and 53 rushing yards per game. Cleveland is a favorable matchup, too, surrendering the seventh-highest passing touchdown rate (4.7%) and fifth-most yards per pass attempt (7.6).

Running Back

Buffalo started the game running the football effectively with Devin Singletary, who scored two first-quarter rushing touchdowns. However, despite leading by 17 points in the second half, Buffalo abandoned the run, as Singletary only saw five touches in the second half and two in the fourth quarter. He logged 72% of the snaps on Sunday, giving him four consecutive games with at least 72% of the snaps. It is weird that Nyheim Hines hasn’t seen a larger role after Buffalo traded for him, but at the moment, Singletary is the clear RB1 in Buffalo. The ground attack could be more of a focal point in these elements and if that is the case, Singletary could flourish against a bad Cleveland run defense that just allowed Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert to combine for 184 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Only the Texans are allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, while the Browns have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns (second most). Singletary is a low-end RB2 this week.

Wide Receiver

Sure, weather could make things more difficult, but your team isn’t good enough to even consider benching Stefon Diggs. He caught 12-of-16 targets for 128 yards last week and is now sporting an impressive 31.7% target share on the year, the sixth-highest rate in football. Diggs has had at least 100 yards in six-of-nine contests this season, while also seeing double-digit targets in six games. Starting Gabe Davis, meanwhile, is a tougher call, as we have seen how low the floor can be. However, he is coming off a season-high in receptions (6) and targets (9), totaling 93 yards and a touchdown. Davis’ downfield presence might be minimal in snowy Buffalo this weekend and he has been more efficient against man coverage than zone this season, which makes this a less appealing spot, as Cleveland is one of the zone-heavier teams in the league. The potential weather concern adds to it, but Davis remains a boom-or-bust WR3.

Tight End

Dawson Knox caught four passes for a season-high 57 yards Sunday. However, two catches and 20 of those yards came against prevent defense on the final drive of regulation. Cleveland has been strong against tight ends this season, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points (8.2) per game to opposing tight ends, while only allowing one touchdown to the position through 10 weeks of play. Nothing has changed for Knox after Week 10. He remains a touchdown-or-bust TE2.

Browns

Quarterback

Even with multiple key injuries to their secondary, the Bills have limited the upside of opposing signal callers. Jacoby Brissett just struggled against a much weaker Miami pass defense a week ago and now faces a Buffalo defense that is allowing a 2.9% passing touchdown rate on the year, the second-lowest rate in football. If there is a ton of snow in this game, Brissett might throw the ball 15 or 16 times, and I don’t expect him to have the greatest efficiency in this game. The veteran signal caller is a low-end QB2 here.

Running Back

Cleveland fell behind early last week, which limited Nick Chubb to a season-low 11 carries. Of course, he still made the most of his workload, rushing for 63 yards and a touchdown, actually catching a season-high three passes. Expect Chubb to be busy this weekend, especially if the playing conditions aren’t very suitable for passing. The Bills, meanwhile, have struggled to stop the run as of late, allowing 176.3 rushing yards (fifth most), 5.9 yards per rush (most) and 10.3 rushing first downs (fifth most) per game over the last three weeks. They have allowed two 100-yard rushers over the last three weeks, and if they continue to run a ton of defensive packages with five-plus defensive backs, Cleveland will make them pay. If the Browns can stay in this game, Chubb could go crazy here, especially if the Bills are without the captain of their defense in Tremaine Edmunds, who missed the second half of last week with a groin injury.

Kareem Hunt, despite being in a gamescript that would favor him, went back down to just seven touches last week, totaling 19 scrimmage yards. He could see more work if the Browns simply only run the football in bad weather, but Hunt is an uninspiring flex play right now.

RBs vs. Buffalo since Week 8

Wide Receiver

The home/road splits for Amari Cooper are real. Cooper continued to struggle when away from Cleveland last week, catching just three passes for 32 yards. He is now averaging just 4.2 targets, 2.5 receptions, 33 receiving yards and 5.8 PPR points per game in four road games this season. On top of having to play on the road again this week, Cooper will have to do it in potentially two feet of snow, which makes it easier to potentially sit him. If the weather isn’t too bad, I’d struggle to sit Cooper unless you have solid options at wide receiver, especially since Buffalo’s secondary is so shorthanded right now. The veteran wideout is a high-end WR3 for me ahead of Week 10.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, meanwhile, benefited from Xavien Howard following Cooper Sunday. Peoples-Jones caught five passes for 99 yards against Miami, giving him at least 70 receiving yards in five of his last six games. He’s yet to find the end zone on the year but DPJ has emerged as a viable WR3 play with strong upside. He’s recorded one catch of at least 35 yards in each of his last four games, and if Cooper continues to struggle on the road, Peoples-Jones will benefit, as he is averaging around 13 fantasy points in four games away from home this season.

Tight End

With David Njoku sidelined Sunday, Harrison Bryant logged 76% of the snaps, running a route on 76% of dropbacks. He caught all three of his targets for just 15 yards but did find the end zone. If Njoku is back in action this week, he’d settle in as a low-end TE1 against a Bills defense that has yet to allow a tight end to find the end zone against them all year long, while Bryant would still be an avoid for me if he starts at tight end again. 

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants

Total: 46, NYG -3
Pace: NYG: 28.16 sec/snap (22nd), DET: 27.9 sec/snap (20th)

What to watch for: D’Andre Swift’s workload continues to underwhelm. Will it ever increase?

Giants

Quarterback

Despite attempting just 17 passes Sunday, Daniel Jones still threw for 197 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Jones isn’t going to attempt 30-plus passes very often. In fact, he’s only done it four times this season. But the Lions are a welcoming matchup for efficiency, as they are allowing 11.8 yards per completion (second most) and 8.1 yards per pass attempt (most). Detroit is also allowing a 5.1% passing touchdown rate, the fifth-worst mark in the league. The Lions are also coughing up the most rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers (41.3), as well as a league-high 6.3 rush attempts per game to the position, which bodes well for Jones, who is averaging 7.7 carries (fifth among quarterbacks), 1.6 red zone carries (sixth) and 43 rushing yards per game (fourth). His 35 designed rushing attempts are the sixth-most among signal callers this season, so Jones makes for a fine streaming option against a Lions defense that is allowing the most points per drive in all of football (2.65).

Running Back

Saquon Barkley dominated coming off the bye week, rushing for 152 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 35 carries last week. Barkley is now averaging a gaudy 25.2 touches per game on the year, leading the NFL in opportunity share at 85%. After getting an elite matchup against the Texans last week, Barkley now faces a Lions defense that is surrendering the fourth-most rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs (1.11) and allowing opposing offenses to score points on 45.2% of drives this season, the highest rate in football. Expect Barkley to post a second consecutive strong game Sunday.

Wide Receiver

Darius Slayton made the most of his limited volume last week, hauling in 3-of-4 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown. Quietly, Slayton has found the end zone twice over the last three weeks, eclipsing 55 receiving yards in four of his last five games. Slayton has recorded at least one reception of 20-plus yards in three of his last four games and now faces a Lions defense that coughs up plenty of deep passing plays. In fact, Detroit is allowing the highest aDOT in the NFL at 9.4 yards and the fourth-most air yards (1,376). Since Week 5, Slayton ranks ninth among qualified wideouts in yards per target (12.15), 14th in yards per reception (17.56) and 16th in fantasy points per snap (0.28). Slayton’s floor isn’t very high, but on a week with so many wide receivers out of our lives, he is an upside WR3 in this stellar spot.

Wan’Dale Robinson, meanwhile, logged 75% of the snaps last week, his highest rate of the season. He continues to run the most routes on this team, but it only led to two catches for 20 yards in Week 10. Unlike Slayton, Robinson isn’t seeing much usage down the field, as he is sporting the league’s third-lowest aDOT among wideouts with at least 15 targets (4.5 yards), failing to see a deep target. The Lions are obviously a favorable matchup and have struggled to defend the slot this season, where Robinson is running 81% of his routes this season. However, the lack of passing volume makes Robinson a low-ceiling flex play at best.

Tight End

Lawrence Cager emerged as the lead tight end last week, logging a season-high 65% of the snaps, while scoring a touchdown. However, he only ran a route on 8-of-23 dropbacks and saw two targets. Do not chase this situation entering Week 11.

Lions

Quarterback

Once again last week, Jared Goff had an OK game for the Lions, but not one we covet for fantasy purposes, completing 19-of-26 passes for 236 yards and one touchdown. Since Week 5, Goff has finished as the QB27, QB26, QB18, QB20 and QB22 in fantasy and he remains a middling QB2 against the blitz-heavy Giants who are blitzing at the highest rate in football (39.7%). Goff, meanwhile, has six touchdown passes against the blitz this season (5th-most), but also has 4-of-7 interceptions when being blitzed.

Running Back

Tracking D’Andre Swift’s usage continues to be a weekly trend. In Week 10, Swift climbed to a 31% snap share, touching the ball just seven times for 12 yards, though he saved his day with a touchdown. Jamaal Williams remains Detroit’s clear leading rusher, and Justin Jackson ended up logging 17 snaps to Swift’s 19, running one more pass route and seeing one fewer touch. This week’s matchup against the Giants is fantastic, but Swift remains an extremely risky flex play considering the Lions are being so cautious with him. He’s been under 10 touches in every game since Week 1. 

Williams, meanwhile, is on the RB2 radar. He carried the ball 16 times last week, accumulating 59 rushing yards and a touchdown. The veteran now has nine touchdowns on the season and leads all running backs in carries inside the 5-yard line this season with 16. Swift did see a carry from inside the 5-yard line last week, which has pushed Williams to a 92.9% share of the Lions’ carries from that area of the field over the course of the season, the fourth-highest rate in the league. He has a great chance of scoring again this week, facing a Giants defense that is allowing a league-worst 5.5 yards per carry on the season, while just 13% of carries against this unit have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the third-lowest rate in football. 

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown has played in two games since the Lions traded T.J. Hockenson. In those games, he’s seen target shares of 37.5% and 44%, seeing 20 total targets. He is coming off a game where he caught 10-of-11 targets for 119 yards, as the Lions moved him all over the formation. St. Brown should continue to see a boatload of targets, especially against the blitz-heavy Giants. If you look at the game where Goff was blitzed a lot this season, St. Brown has seen terrific volume. In Week 9, Goff was blitzed on 65% of his dropbacks, leading to nine targets for St. Brown. In Week 8, Goff was blitzed around 40% of the time and St. Brown saw 10 targets. Because he is essentially always the first read for the Lions, Goff should be looking his way early and often this week, assuming he is blitzed at a high rate. The Giants have been tough against perimeter wide receivers, but they are allowing the fourth-most targets (8.5) per game to opposing slot wideouts this season. St. Brown is obviously a must-start wide receiver.

Tight End

Interestingly enough, every passing touchdown from the Lions since T.J. Hockenson has been traded has gone to a tight end. I’m not sure if it means anything, but it is funny. Brock Wright, James Mitchell and Shane Zylstra have each found the end zone over the last two weeks, but all three players are seeing notable playing time.

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens

Total: 43.5, BAL -12
Pace: BAL: 30.51 sec/snap (32nd), CAR: 26.76 sec/snap (7th)

What to watch for: It sounds like both Mark Andrews and Gus Edwards could return this week for the Ravens. Baker Mayfield will start at quarterback for the Panthers.

Ravens

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson has been pretty underwhelming as of late, finishing as the QB11, QB10, QB23, QB10, QB15 and QB18 over his last six games. The lack of pass-catchers in Baltimore has been an issue, so hopefully Mark Andrews is back in the lineup this week. Jackson is still averaging 9.6 rushing attempts and 70.6 rushing yards per game on the season but only has one game with multiple passing touchdowns since Week 3, which has been the main reason behind his good-not-great fantasy totals. You are still starting Jackson, and the Panthers have struggled as of late, surrendering QB13 and QB7 performances to Marcus Mariota in Weeks 10 and 8, with Joe Burrow finishing as the QB8 against Carolina in Week 9.

Running Back

Kenyan Drake has put together consecutive strong games, putting up 16.7 and 24.9 fantasy points over the last two weeks and scoring three touchdowns during that span. With J.K. Dobbins sidelined and Gus Edwards out with a hamstring injury, Drake has emerged as the lead running back in Baltimore, averaging 18.5 touches per game over the last two contests. He recorded 26 touches before the bye in Week 9, but if Edwards is back in the lineup this week, things could get messy. Edwards likely gets 10-12 touches, but I also don’t think the Ravens completely get away from Drake. If Edwards is active, I’d expect him to get the goal-line work, which is obviously valuable, especially in an offense that likes to run the football when in close. However, the Ravens limited him back in Week 8, and I’d expect that to continue this week. If Edwards is out, however, Drake would pencil in as a low-end RB2 against a vulnerable Carolina run defense that is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (26.2).

Wide Receiver

Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson are uninspiring WR4 options, regardless of the status of Mark Andrews. Baltimore’s wide receivers just aren’t involved enough in the offense right now and the matchup isn’t even all that favorable. It might take a long touchdown catch or jet sweep for Duvernay to get there.

Tight End

Mark Andrews has missed the last six quarters of Ravens football. During that span, Isaiah Likely has caught a total of seven passes for 101 yards and two touchdowns. In Andrews’ absence in Week 9, Likely actually led the Ravens with five targets. If Andrews remains sidelined, I’d expect him to lead the team in targets again. Of course, if Andrews is active, he returns to your starting lineup and should once again be heavily involved.

Panthers

Quarterback

With PJ Walker dealing with a high-ankle sprain, Baker Mayfield will return to action for Carolina. He’s been arguably the worst quarterback in all of football this season and is set to face a Baltimore defense that has been outstanding lately. If you have to start Mayfield this week, you are in trouble and could legitimately score fewer than five points.

Running Back

Even with Chuba Hubbard active last Thursday, D’Onta Foreman still dominated the Carolina backfield, rushing for 130 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries. Foreman logged 68% of the snaps and handled 31 of the 42 running back touches for the Panthers. It appears that Foreman has taken over as the lead back in Carolina, but there is some serious risk in this matchup. For starters, the Ravens run defense has been great, surrendering the third-fewest rushing yards per game (92.0), while just 26.2% of the yardage gained against Baltimore has come on the ground, the second-lowest rate in the league. Secondly, the Ravens are 12-point home favorites here, which is an issue for Foreman, who is not being used in the passing game, seeing just seven total targets since Week 7. When we saw Carolina fall behind against Cincinnati a few weeks ago, Foreman ended up touching the ball just nine times, while logging 43% of the snaps. If you plan on continuing to start Foreman, you are hoping the Panthers can keep this game close, while also hoping the offense doesn’t completely fall apart with Mayfield under center.

Wide Receiver

DJ Moore showed signs of life with Walker under center, though he’s been under 30 yards with zero scores over the last two weeks. Moore continues to dominate targets, as he leads the league with a whopping 37.2% target share, while also handling over 50% of Carolina’s air yards. Of course, his numbers with Mayfield at quarterback were unbelievably bad, as Moore has averaged just 3.1 receptions, 37.5 receiving yards and 8.57 PPR points per game in six contests with Mayfield under center, though is still averaging a solid 7.1 targets per game. He remains a WR3 with a decent ceiling but troubling floor in this offense.

Meanwhile, Terrace Marshall continues to operate as the clear WR2 in Carolina. He caught just one pass last week but remains on the field a ton since the Robbie Anderson trade. And since Week 8, only Justin Jefferson has seen more end zone targets than Marshall’s five, while the LSU product has run a route on over 95% of dropbacks during that span. Marshall is an extremely risky flex play for Week 11.

Tight End

Tommy Tremble has two touchdowns over his last four games but also has 10 receptions through 10 games on the year. You should not be starting him in any fantasy format.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Total: 38.5, NE -3
Pace: NE: 29.21 sec/snap (26th), NYJ: 27.53 sec/snap (15th)

What to watch for: Corey Davis missed the last two games with an injury and is still listed as day-to-day. 

Patriots

Quarterback

Mac Jones should not be started unless you have no other options in a two-quarterback league. He has yet to post a multi-touchdown game this season and the last time he faced this tough Jets defense, Jones threw for just 194 yards, one touchdown and one interception. And if it weren’t for a roughing the passer penalty, it would have been two interceptions. On the year, the Jets are allowing the seventh-lowest completion rate (61.3%), while also surrendering the second-lowest passing touchdown rate (2.9%) and 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (15.2).

Running Back

Coming out of the bye, Damien Harris should be back for the Patriots. However, Rhamondre Stevenson remains a top-15 fantasy running back and likely sees 60% of the work. Harris has missed some time due to injuries and illness but when we last saw him in a strong role in Week 8 (41% of the snaps, 13 touches), Stevenson still touched the ball 23 times, including seven receptions. He has seen at least five targets in each of his last four games and since Week 6, Stevenson’s 23.1% target share ranks second among all running backs, trailing only Austin Ekeler. Stevenson should continue to see 15-18 touches and plenty of work in the passing game against a Jets defense that is surrendering the seventh-most targets (7.6) and 10th-most receptions (5.2) per game to opposing backfields this season. Continue to start Harris as (at least) a top-15 running back, while Harris is a touchdown-or-bust flex play.

Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers remains the only New England pass-catcher you should feel even remotely comfortable starting. He is being targeted on nearly 25% of his routes to this point of the season and should continue to be the focal point of the Patriots passing game, especially against a Jets secondary that has shut down opposing perimeter wide receivers. Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed have been an elite defensive back duo but targeting the slot is New England’s best chance of success through the air here. Slot defensive back Michael Carter II is allowing 0.24 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season, while also coughing up a 74% catch rate. Meyers is a solid WR3 play once again ahead of this pivotal AFC East showdown.

Tight End

The Jets have yet to allow a tight end to reach the end zone against them this season and Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are both playing about half of the snaps. If one of Henry or Smith were the lead tight end getting all of the snaps and routes, I’d rank them as a top-12 tight end. However, that isn’t the case and this is a bad matchup. Avoid if possible. 

Jets

Quarterback

When these teams last met, Zach Wilson threw for 355 yards and two touchdowns. However, he also threw three awful interceptions, which put the Jets in a pass-heavy gamescript, resulting in a season-high 41 pass attempts. I don’t envision a similar scenario this time around, especially because we know the Jets want to run the football. Wilson has struggled against the Patriots to start his career, throwing two touchdown passes to seven interceptions and in two full starts against New England, he is averaging just 12.8 fantasy points per game. Both quarterbacks from this game are very low-end QB2 plays.

Running Back

When we last saw the Jets in Week 9, Michael Carter and James Robinson were running all over the Buffalo Bills. Carter rushed for 76 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, while Robinson accumulated 53 total yards and a touchdown on 15 touches. Carter logged 52% of the snaps compared to 40% for Robinson, who saw the only goal-line snap in the game. Ty Johnson is still playing more third-down snaps than we’d like, but both Carter and Robinson are viable flex plays against a vulnerable New England run defense.

Wide Receiver

Garrett Wilson has been fantastic over his last two games, posting stat lines of 6-115-0 and 8-92-0. The 115-yard performance came against this very Patriots defense. Wilson has been the unquestioned WR1 for the Jets, especially with Corey Davis sidelined. Wilson has seen 16 targets over the last two games and if Davis can’t return this week, he should continue to lead this team in targets. This isn’t the easiest matchup in the world, but we did see Wilson find success against New England already. He’s a WR3.

Tight End

In games where the Jets have to throw more, Tyler Conklin is going to be a lot more viable. It seems obvious, but when the Jets can keep games close and succeed with their running game, it leads to more snaps from C.J. Uzomah. However, in games where they have to throw, Conklin distances himself from Uzomah in terms of playing time. Again, the Jets attempted 41 passes the last time these teams met, which led to six catches for 79 yards and two touchdowns on 10 targets for Conklin. This is a good matchup if you want to take a chance on Conklin, as the Patriots are coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game (13.9) to opposing tight ends this season, as well as the most touchdowns per game to the position (0.78). 

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

Total: 39, NO -4
Pace: NO: 27.83 sec/snap (21st), LAR: 29.95 sec/snap (29th)

What to watch for: Cooper Kupp (ankle) has been placed on injured reserve. 

Saints

Quarterback

Andy Dalton has put together back-to-back poor showings, throwing for 384 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions over the last two weeks. He threw a pair of fourth-quarter interceptions last week, leading to speculation that Jameis Winston could take the starting job back sooner rather than later, though head coach Dennis Allen said it would still be Dalton this week. Regardless of who is under center for the Saints, though, this isn’t the matchup to target. The Rams are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (13.7), and only Josh Allen has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback against them on the year.

Running Back

Alvin Kamara scored over 40 fantasy points in his three-touchdown game back in Week 8. In two games since, he’s scored a total of 16.7 PPR points. The Saints offense has been struggling over the last few weeks, but Kamara continues to play around 80% of the offensive snaps. He’s only averaging 11.5 touches per game over his last two games, as the Saints have struggled to sustain drives, while also playing from behind, a pretty bad combination for a running back in fantasy. If Winston ever returns as the starting quarterback, it could potentially hurt Kamara, who is averaging seven targets, 5.67 receptions and 53 receiving yards per game alongside Dalton, compared to 5.5 targets, 2.5 receptions and 9.5 receiving yards per game alongside Winston. I am still starting Kamara as a back-end RB1, but I am tempering expectations.

Wide Receiver

Despite facing the most generous pass defense in all of football last week, Chris Olave finished with just three catches for 40 yards against the Steelers. His five targets were his fewest in a game since Week 1, as he finally had some competition for targets with the return of Jarvis Landry, who caught three passes for 37 yards on six targets. The veteran slot receiver played nearly 80% of the snaps but even with Landry’s return, Olave still projects as a solid WR2, especially if this offense gets back on track. The Rams are allowing the second-most receiving yards (76.9), most receptions (6.1), most targets (9.1) and second-most fantasy points (15.3) per game to opposing wide receivers on the left side of the formation this season. Olave still ranks second among all pass-catchers in air yards, something that will remain solidified no matter who starts at quarterback. Landry, meanwhile, is a low-ceiling WR4, especially against a Rams defense that has been good against slot wide receivers this season.

Tight End

Juwan Johnson has now scored touchdowns in consecutive games, tallying four over the last four weeks. A few of those touchdowns have been fluky, wide-open touchdowns late in games, so while Johnson has been very productive as of late, I also don’t really expect it to last. He saw a team-high seven targets Sunday, something I also don’t expect to repeat going forward, especially with Landry back. Johnson is a risky TE2 play. Meanwhile, it appears that the Taysom Hill experience has come to an end — over the last two weeks, Hill has just five total touches. 

Rams

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford missed last week’s game with a concussion, and even if he is back this weekend, I highly doubt you are starting him. Stafford has just two games with multiple touchdowns all year long, while only throwing multiple touchdown passes once. He ranks 36th in the league in fantasy points per dropback (0.34), ahead of only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco, and now will be without Cooper Kupp for at least the next four weeks. With this Rams offense being so reliant on Kupp, I don’t see how Stafford finds success without him. If he remains sidelined, John Wolford will make his second consecutive start.

Running Back

Darrell Henderson still led this Los Angeles backfield with a 55% snap share and seven touches, but was once again inefficient. We did see Kyren Williams take the field for the first time since hurting his ankle in Week 1, logging 40% of the snaps and recording four touches (three receptions). He played 7-of-11 snaps in the two-minute drill, while Henderson played most of the third-down snaps. Williams played more than Cam Akers and is worth an add off the waiver wire in deeper leagues. Still, this is a situation to completely avoid if possible, especially considering the Rams offensive line is so depleted.

Wide Receiver

Well, someone is going to have to step up.

Cooper Kupp has seen a 31% target share on the season, while handling 34% of Los Angeles’ receptions and 38% of their receiving yards. In his absence, Allen Robinson could finally provide a somewhat decent floor if his targets increase, though he isn’t doing a great job of creating separation, so it isn’t even a guarantee his targets spike. Still, the veteran wideout ranks fourth in the league with 10 end zone targets on the season and likely sees more designed screen passes, as Kupp leads the league in receptions (17) and targets (18) off screens this season. 

Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek will also see a bump in usage. Skowronek saw seven targets from John Wolford last week and played just about every offensive snap. Jefferson has the higher ceiling but the lower floor, especially since he continues to play behind Skowronek.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee was on his way to becoming a drop candidate in fantasy. In Weeks 6-9, Higbee caught just three passes for 22 yards, while ranking 23rd among tight ends in routes run during that stretch of games (54). However, he was finally more involved last week, hauling in all eight of his targets for 73 yards. Higbee projects to see the most consistent volume in Kupp’s absence, especially considering this Rams offense has zero vertical passing game right now. You’d definitely like to see Higbee build off his 60% route participation from last week but that should happen with Kupp sidelined. He’s still yet to find the end zone, but if Higbee can return to his early-season usage, that will move him back into top-10 status among tight ends. 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Total: 41.5, DEN -2.5
Pace: DEN: 26.6 sec/snap (6th), LV: 27.1 sec/snap (12th)

What to watch for: Jerry Jeudy is dealing with a mild ankle sprain, while KJ Hamler is dealing with a hamstring injury.

Broncos

Quarterback

If there is ever a week to trust Russell Wilson as a streaming quarterback, it is absolutely this one.

The Raiders defense has been atrocious this season, especially against opposing passing games. Every single quarterback to face the Raiders except Andy Dalton has finished as a top-12 fantasy signal caller, including Matt Ryan, who was a top-five quarterback last week. Wilson was the QB3 against this Las Vegas defense in the first meeting between these teams, throwing for 237 yards and two touchdowns and adding 29 rushing yards and an additional score on the ground. The Raiders are allowing the second-highest passing touchdown rate (5.5%), while they are also coughing up the second-most points (2.47), second-most plays (6.5) and third-most yards (37.6) per drive this season. Now you’d definitely feel a lot better about Wilson if Jerry Jeudy plays, but the matchup is still outstanding. Wilson is a high-end QB2 for me, although instilling any sort of faith in this Denver offense is rather off-putting. 

QBs vs. Las Vegas this season

Running Back

Denver continues to use multiple running backs, limiting the upside of both Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray. This past weekend, Gordon logged 54% of the snaps, touching the ball 11 times. Murray, meanwhile, played 31% of the snaps and had 12 touches. Gordon ended up playing 100% of the snaps in the two-minute drill Sunday with the two running backs splitting short-yardage work. A matchup against the Raiders is a favorable one, as they are allowing the fourth-most receptions (6.3), fourth-most targets (7.9) and most receiving yards (51.8) per game to opposing backfields this season. That would make this a more favorable matchup for Gordon, who has seen at least four targets in each of his last three games. He is a viable PPR flex option, while Murray is a touchdown-or-bust flex, though he should have a floor of 10-12 touches.

Wide Receiver

With Jerry Jeudy leaving early with an ankle injury last week, Courtland Sutton paced the Broncos with 11 targets, seeing a healthy 28% target share. He caught six passes for 66 yards and in games where Jeudy has either been out or limited, Sutton has seen a ton of targets, which could be the case this weekend. His nine end zone targets are the sixth-most in all of football and now he faces a Raiders defense that has struggled in the red zone, allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 72.4% of red zone trips on the year, the highest rate in the league. If Jeudy is ruled out, Sutton will project as a volume-based WR2. And if Jeudy is active, Sutton would be a low-end WR2.

Speaking of Jeudy, if he’s active, I am starting him. The Raiders have been unbelievably bad against slot wide receivers this season, allowing the sixth-most receptions (5.3), fifth-most receiving yards (73.9), most touchdowns (0.80) and most fantasy points (17.1) per game to the slot. Jeudy is lining up in the slot just over 70% of the time this season, the 16th-highest rate among qualified wide receivers.

Whoever starts at slot wide receiver for the Broncos this week could be in store for a productive day. Las Vegas has simply been that bad at defending the slot this season. We also saw Jeudy haul in four passes for 53 yards against this same Raiders defense back in Week 4. If Denver for whatever reason moved Sutton into the slot, I’d probably rank him as a top-12 wide receiver for the week. Keep an eye on Jeudy’s status throughout the week but if he suits up, he’s a top-25 wide receiver for me. 

They’ve already said KJ Hamler will miss a few weeks — if Jeudy is also out, Kendall Hinton would be the deep sleeper of the week. He played out of the slot nearly 60% of the time last week once Jeudy left the game, hauling in four passes for 62 yards and running a route on around 95% of dropbacks.

Slot WRs vs. Las Vegas this season

Tight End

Greg Dulcich is coming off a down game, catching just one pass for 11 yards. Still, the involvement and opportunity remain fantasy-friendly, as Dulcich logged 89% of the snaps, while running a route on about 82% of dropbacks. Since emerging as Denver’s lead tight end in Week 6, Dulcich has played about 75% of the snaps, while ranking eighth among all tight ends in routes run during that stretch (133). I’m still starting Dulcich as a back-end TE1, especially if Jeudy doesn’t play. The Raiders, meanwhile, are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (14.7), making this a good spot for Dulcich.

Raiders

Quarterback

Derek Carr is coming off a solid game against the Colts, completing 24-of-38 passes for 248 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It was his second consecutive multi-touchdown game. Carr remains a good, but not great, QB2 in fantasy, especially with the pass-catchers being limited after Davante Adams. Carr didn’t do much when these teams last met in Week 4, passing for 188 yards and adding 40 yards on the ground (Josh Jacobs dominated that game). This Denver pass defense is no joke, surrendering a 1.9% passing touchdown rate, the lowest mark in the NFL. No team is allowing fewer yards per pass attempt than the Broncos (5.5), making Carr a tough start for Week 11.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs got back on track last week, rushing for 78 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries against the Colts. Jacobs also saw eight targets, hauling in six passes for an additional 28 yards. He is still second in all of football with an 83% opportunity share, while averaging a healthy 21.1 touches per game through 10 weeks. We saw Jacobs torch this Denver defense to the tune of 144 yards and a pair of touchdowns earlier in the year and while they just did a great job against Derrick Henry last week, the Broncos are allowing 4.7 yards per carry over the course of the season. Continue to start Jacobs as a top-12 fantasy running back.

Wide Receiver

With both Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow on injured reserve, Davante Adams saw 14 targets last week, catching nine passes for 126 yards and a touchdown. He posted a target share north of 37% in this game and has now seen at least 35% of the Raiders targets in three of his last four games. You are obviously starting Adams as a top-five wide receiver and while this is a tough matchup, he did catch nine passes for 101 yards against the Broncos earlier this season, Star defensive back Pat Surtain shadowed Adams on 72% of his routes during that game, limiting him to five receptions on nine targets for 54 yards. 

Tight End

In four games as the starting tight end for the Raiders, Foster Moreau has posted snap shares of 96%, 100%, 97% and 96%, while running a route on 131-of-149 dropbacks during that span (88%). He is third among all tight ends in routes run since Week 7 and is coming off his best game of the season, catching three passes for 43 yards and a touchdown Sunday. There isn’t anything special about this matchup but Moreau’s route involvement and playing time keep him on the TE1 borderline until Waller returns to the lineup.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 41, CIN -4
Pace: PIT: 27.29 sec/snap (13th), CIN: 27.68 sec/snap (17th)

What to watch for: Ja’Marr Chase will likely remain sidelined following Cincinnati’s bye week. For the Steelers, Najee Harris could be limited in practice this week.

Steelers

Quarterback

Kenny Pickett failed to throw a touchdown pass for the second consecutive game, while it was his third start this season without a touchdown pass. He did add 51 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground, giving him at least 20 rushing yards in each of the last three games. He still isn’t a reliable fantasy option unless you are desperate in a two-quarterback format. Cincinnati ranks fifth in yards per pass attempt allowed this season (6.6), while their 3.1% passing touchdown allowed is tied for the fourth-lowest rate in football.

Running Back

Najee Harris is coming off season-highs in carries (20) and rushing yards (99) against the Saints Sunday. Entering the week, there was some talk surrounding Jaylen Warren potentially getting some more work and that was true, as the rookie saw a season-high 12 touches, while logging his second-highest snap share of the season at 43%. Warren also continued to take third down snaps away from Harris, as he out-snapped him 9-12 on third down last week, while also getting two snaps at the goal line, the same amount as Harris. Both running backs are nothing more than flex plays against the Bengals this weekend, who are allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. If Warren continues to take passing down work away from Harris, the latter would be a touchdown-dependent running back in a bad offense. That is not a recipe for fantasy football success.

Wide Receiver

81 targets, zero touchdowns.

No player in football has more targets without finding the end zone than Diontae Johnson this season, and the efficiency has once again been poor. Johnson is averaging a healthy nine targets per game this season, but he is still averaging just 5.38 yards per target, the 13th-lowest rate among qualified wideouts. He is also sporting the 11th-lowest yards per reception mark at 9.04. We’re still relying on volume from Johnson, who remains a middling WR3 against a banged-up Cincinnati secondary that is without top defensive back Chidobe Awuzie. In Pittsburgh’s first game without Chase Claypool, we didn’t really see Johnson or George Pickens move into the slot, as the Steelers operated out of a lot more 12 personnel last week. Pickens caught three passes for 32 yards but saved his day with 23 rushing yards and a score on two carries, which is notable considering the Steelers would give Claypool a few carries per game. His floor isn’t as high as Johnson’s, but he’s dominated the air yards since Pickett took over at quarterback for the Steelers.

Tight End

Since returning from a concussion in Week 7, Pat Freiermuth has seen at least seven targets in all three games. He saw 27% of the Steelers targets last week and has been targeted on 23% of routes run over the course of the season, the sixth-highest rate at the tight end position. Freiermuth’s usage is very strong, and he remains a top-10 fantasy tight end ahead of this AFC North matchup.

Bengals

Quarterback

Joe Burrow and company return from a week off to face a Steelers secondary that played well last week, while the overall defense as a unit is improved with the return of T.J. Watt. When these teams last met in Week 1, Burrow was sacked seven times and turned the ball over five times, but still had a strong fantasy outing due to sheer volume. Of course, he also had Ja’Marr Chase during that game, who gives Burrow such a higher ceiling, especially in the yardage department. Until Chase is back in the lineup, Burrow should be considered a low-end QB1 who likely doesn’t have the same upside. There could still be an opportunity to connect on some deep shots here, however, as the Steelers have allowed a league-high seven passing touchdowns of 20-plus yards this season, while also coughing up the second-highest passing touchdown rate (5.5%) and third-highest aDOT (9.0 yards).

Running Back

When we last saw Joe Mixon on the field, all he did was score five touchdowns and 50 fantasy points. He obviously isn’t going to come anywhere close to those totals this week, especially against a Steelers defense that has been pretty solid against the run this season, as just 9.2% of the runs against this unit have gone for 10 or more yards, the fifth-lowest rate in football. Mixon has struggled with efficiency for most of the year, but the volume is still great, as he’s averaging 21 touches per game, while his 80% opportunity share ranks fourth among all running backs. His 15 carries from inside the 5-yard line are the second-most in all of football, while the usage in the passing game has been consistent, as Mixon has caught at least three passes in every game this season.

Wide Receiver

It was odd to see a wide receiver not go off against the Steelers last week, but this is still a potential smash spot for Tee Higgins this week. Pittsburgh is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season, while 10 different wideouts have recorded either 95 receiving yards or a touchdown against this unit on the year. The Steelers are also allowing the most targets (9.4), most receptions (5.6), second-most receiving yards (70.9) and most fantasy points per game (17.2) to opposing wide receivers lined up on the right side of the formation, which is where Higgins operates about half of the time. He’ll see coverage from Levi Wallace in this game, who is allowing 0.34 fantasy points per coverage route on the year. As long as Chase remains sidelined, Higgins is an easy top-10 fantasy wide receiver.

Tyler Boyd, meanwhile, is a high-end WR3 with WR2 upside. He only has 11 targets over the last two games but in Week 9, the Bengals dominated the game and didn’t have to do much, while their offense couldn’t sustain drives back in Week 8. Pittsburgh has also been vulnerable to the slot, surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per game (15.3) and fourth-most receiving yards (81.4) per game to opposing wide receivers out of the slot. 

Tight End

Hayden Hurst is a viable tight end streamer this week. He’s hauled in at least four passes in four of his last five games, which is something when you consider how rough the tight end position can be, while Hurst is still fifth among all tight ends in routes run (282). Pittsburgh has been above average against opposing tight ends this season, but Hurst should be in line for 5-7 targets, keeping him in play as a solid TE2.

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

Total: 47.5, DAL -1.5
Pace: MIN: 26.34 sec/snap (4th), DAL: 26.79 sec/snap (8th)

What to watch for: Ezekiel Elliott has missed the last two games with an MCL sprain. He’s been limited in practice to start the week.

Vikings

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins is coming off an up-and-down game against Buffalo last week, throwing for a season-high 357 yards and a touchdown, but also threw a pair of ugly interceptions. Cousins was inches shy of a rushing touchdown that would have made his day look a lot better, but he was stuffed on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line. He gets a second straight tough matchup this week, facing a Dallas defense that is generating pressure at the second-highest rate in football (29.6%), while allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (13.1). Cousins has not been great when under duress so far this season, ranking 25th in completion rate (44.8%), 27th in yards per attempt (3.7) and 22nd in aDOT (7.05 yards). This game does feature a strong total, as well as two teams that rank inside the top-eight in pace, so while I’m tempering expectations for Cousins this week, I also don’t think I’d bench him for the top streaming quarterbacks.

Running Back

It was a quiet game for Dalvin Cook last week until he ripped off an 81-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. He ultimately finished the game with 119 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, adding three receptions for 27 yards. Since Week 5, Cook has scored five rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown, while averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game during that span. The Cowboys’ run defense has been susceptible as of late, especially last week when they allowed nearly 130 rushing yards and a touchdown to Aaron Jones. Cook has been taking on more of the volume as of late, especially in the passing game. He’s an obvious top-five running back.

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson singlehandedly ruined my experience in Buffalo last week, as he torched my beloved Bills to the tune of 10 catches for 193 yards and a touchdown, including the most amazing catch I’ve ever seen on fourth-and-19 to keep the Vikings in the game. Jefferson was limited Wednesday with a toe injury, but it isn’t believed to be serious. Arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, Jefferson ranks third in the league with a 32.1% target share, while his 44.1% air yards share is the second-highest rate in football. This is a tough matchup and Jefferson struggled against the Cowboys last week, but you are obviously starting him no matter what.

Adam Thielen, meanwhile, caught five passes for 49 yards last week. His overall target shares have been underwhelming since the addition of T.J. Hockenson but Thielen has seen at least seven targets in each of his last eight games. Thielen’s red zone usage has come down this season, as Jefferson leads the league with 14 targets from inside the 10-yard line on the year, while Thielen has only seen six such targets. His 17.6% target share from inside the 10-yard line ranks outside the top-30 wide receivers and is his lowest rate since the 2019 season. We just watched the Cowboys have Trevon Diggs shadow Allen Lazard for 67% of his routes last week, which led to Christian Watson having a huge game against Anthony Brown. If Dallas has the same approach with Diggs and Jefferson this week, Thielen could see a bump in targets against Anthony Brown, who is allowing 0.31 fantasy points per coverage route this season. He has also seen more targets than any defensive back in football (62), while allowing four touchdowns and a 101.2 passer rating in coverage. I think Thielen finds the end zone this week.

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson has been very busy since joining the Vikings, hauling in 16 passes for 115 yards on 19 targets over the last two games. Hockenson has posted at least a 20% target share in both games, as the move to Minnesota has solidified him as an easy top-seven fantasy tight end. The Cowboys are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (9.2) but Hockenson’s role is fantastic right now. Continue starting him.

Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott completed just 27-of-46 passes for 265 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions against Green Bay last week. It wasn’t the most efficient outing for Prescott, but you’ll take the fantasy points. This week, he faces a Minnesota defense that has been more of a pass funnel this season, as 68.9% of the yardage against the Vikings has come through the air, the 10th-highest rate in football. This should be a game where the Cowboys are pushed to score, which should lead to 35-plus pass attempts for Prescott, especially if Dallas doesn’t find as much success on the ground. Prescott remains a rock-solid low-end QB1 in one of the most appealing games of the week.

Running Back

With Ezekiel Elliott out again last week, Tony Pollard once again operated as the lead back for the Cowboys. And once again, Pollard looked great, rushing for 115 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. He played a whopping 87% of the snaps — as Dallas’ starting running back over the last two games, Pollard has played 70% of the snaps, averaging 20 touches per game and handling 73% of Dallas’ running back touches. If Elliott can’t play again, Pollard would once again slide in as a must-start RB1 but even if Elliott is active, you can still play Pollard as an RB2. Dallas will play on a short week in Week 12, which could lead to a limited role for Elliott. And if he does play, Elliott is nothing more than a touchdown-or-bust flex play. 

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb is coming off a huge game, hauling in 11-of-15 targets for 150 yards and two touchdowns. It was his first 100-yard game of the season, as Lamb continues to absolutely dominate targets for the Cowboys. Only Tyreek Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown have been targeted on a higher percentage of routes than Lamb this season (31%), while his 32.1% target share is the fourth-highest mark in football. Lamb has operated out of the slot nearly 60% of the time this season, which bodes well for his chances of finding success here. Minnesota’s slot defensive back Chandon Sullivan is allowing 0.29 fantasy points per coverage route and an 84% catch rate so far this season, while also coughing up the most yards in slot coverage (497). As a unit, the Vikings are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and have specifically struggled to defend No. 1 wideouts.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz is back to being a top-five fantasy tight end.

Like we discussed last week, Schultz has been fantastic in games alongside Prescott this season, and that continued in Week 10 when he caught 6-of-8 targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. Schultz has now finished as the TE3, TE5, TE12 and TE6 in four games alongside Prescott, while averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game in those contests. He is sporting a 22% target share with Prescott under center this season, while being targeted on over 26% of his routes in games alongside Prescott. For reference, that would be the third-highest target per route run rate among tight ends for the full season. With Dallas Goedert now on injured reserve, you can make a legitimate case that Schultz should be the TE3 in fantasy the rest of the season.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 50, KC -5.5
Pace: LAC: 25.45 sec/snap (1st), KC: 26.82 sec/snap (9th)

What to watch for: Mike Williams and Keenan Allen will practice this week and could return on Sunday night. For Kansas City, JuJu Smith-Schuster is dealing with a concussion, while Mecole Hardman missed practice with an abdomen injury, as well as Marquez Valdes-Scantling (illness).

Chargers

Quarterback

Last Sunday night started off well for Justin Herbert, as he drove down the field and threw a touchdown pass against San Francisco. However, he ultimately finished the game with just 196 yards with that one touchdown and an interception, as he continues to struggle to post ceiling weeks with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams sidelined. It is possible that one or both wideouts are back this week, which would be amazing for Herbert and give him an opportunity to return to top-five status. He should be throwing the ball a lot here, as offenses are averaging 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs this season. They have been a pass funnel this season, as 79.1% of the touchdowns scored against Kansas City have come through the air, the second-highest rate in football. Meanwhile, 71.5% of the yardage against the Chiefs has been via the pass, the third-highest rate in the league. Herbert threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns against the Chiefs back in Week 2 in a game that was without Keenan Allen. Although he has been underwhelming as of late, I am not getting away from Herbert here unless I happen to also have Justin Fields on my roster.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler carried the ball just six times last week but saw a whopping 12 targets, catching seven passes for 39 yards. Ekeler has now seen double-digit targets in three of his last four games and during that four-game stretch, he is averaging a gaudy nine receptions and 12 targets per game. He has 24 first-read targets on the year, easily the most among all running backs, and he should remain heavily involved in the passing game here. The Chiefs are surrendering the most receptions (7.4), second-most targets (9.0) and second-most receiving yards (51.4) per game to opposing backfields this season and if the Chargers are playing from behind in this contest, Ekeler will see 10-12 targets once again, especially if Allen and/or Williams remain sidelined. 

Wide Receiver

At the moment, it is pretty difficult to break down the Chargers wide receivers. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen could actually play this week but with this game kicking off Sunday night, we may not know until after the early games start. If one of Williams or Allen are out, Joshua Palmer remains a viable WR3 option. He had a quiet game last week but still ran a route on 100% of dropbacks and saw eight targets. Palmer has seen 30 targets over his last three games and with Williams and Allen out over the last two weeks, he has seen a healthy 23% target share. If the Chargers wideouts are close to full strength this week, it likely ends DeAndre Carter’s time as a fantasy relevant wide receiver, though Allen could easily be limited even if he is active. 

As for Williams and Allen, it is tricky. I’d love to see at least one full practice before Friday to feel good about zero limitations and if that is the case, I’d most likely start both wide receivers. We just have to continue to monitor this situation over the course of the week.

Tight End

Gerald Everett appeared to be on his way to a strong performance last week, hauling in two passes for 23 yards on the team’s opening drive. However, he left with a groin injury in the second quarter and did not return. Everett was limited in practice to start the week and if he is good to go, I am starting him as a top-10 tight end, especially if the Chargers are still short-handed at wide receiver. If Everett is unable to play, Tre’ McKitty would operate as the lead tight end, especially with Donald Parham on injured reserve. 

Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes just continues to crush. He is the MVP frontrunner at the moment. Mahomes is coming off a four-touchdown, 331-yard game against Jacksonville, giving him four-straight 300-yard outings. He has finished as the QB2, QB2, QB4, QB6 and QB2 over the last five games, and although the Chargers did a great job against Mahomes back in Week 2, he is obviously still a top-five play. You would like to see Kansas City’s pass-catchers healthy, as this unit is pretty banged-up at the moment. Still, Mahomes will have enough talent around him ahead of a matchup with a Chargers team that is coughing up the sixth-most points per drive (2.24), while teams are scoring points on 42.4% of drives against Los Angeles this season, the fifth-highest rate in football.

Running Back

Isiah Pacheco has fully taken over the Kansas City backfield. We had seen signs of it on the horizon, but it was official last week when the rookie logged a season-high 56% of the snaps on Sunday, carrying the football 16 times for 82 yards. Jerick McKinnon played 38% of the snaps, recording six receptions for 56 yards. Finally, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was the easiest sell-high candidate in recent memory, played just four offensive snaps and failed to see a touch. Pacheco saw most of the early down snaps, while McKinnon played 7-of-8 third downs. Very quietly, McKinnon now has six receptions and eight targets in consecutive weeks and if the Chiefs are missing wide receivers for this game, McKinnon could remain pretty involved in the passing game, making him a viable flex play in deeper PPR formats.

Pacheco, meanwhile, should see 12-15 carries (with upside for more) against a vulnerable run defense. The Chargers are surrendering the third-most yards before contact per rush in football (2.91), as well as the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Even after losing a fumble last week, the Chiefs went right back to Pacheco, who is a high-end flex play ahead of this AFC West matchup.

Wide Receiver

There is a lot to sort out here.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is dealing with a concussion, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman did not practice to start the week. We saw Kadarius Toney remind everyone just how talented he is last week, hauling in 4-of-5 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown, while adding two carries for 33 yards. Toney played 44% of the snaps and was schemed touches, which is very exciting. If Hardman can’t return, Toney would likely benefit the most, as the Chiefs would likely continue to use him in the same way they used Hardman, which involves jet sweeps, touch passes, etc. Valdes-Scantling, meanwhile, is dealing with an illness but if he plays, he likely leads the wide receivers in snaps and routes. He finally found the end zone last week but still hasn’t seen tremendous volume for most of the season. Of course, that could change if Smith-Schuster and/or Hardman are out. 

Tight End

Travis Kelce caught six passes for 81 yards and a touchdown last week. The Hall of Fame tight end has now reached either 90 receiving yards or found the end zone in eight-of-nine games this season. The only game he failed to accomplish the feat? Week 2 against the Chargers, who often have Derwin James try to press Kelce off the line of scrimmage, failing to give him a free release. It’ll be interesting to see if Los Angeles can slow him down again this time around.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals (Mexico City)

Total: 43.5, SF -8
Pace: ARI: 26.2 sec/snap (3rd), SF: 30.0 sec/snap (30th)

What to watch for: Zach Ertz will miss the remainder of the season. Kyler Murray (hamstring) could remain sidelined.

Cardinals

Quarterback

Kyler Murray missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury and could miss Monday’s game as well. In his absence Sunday, Colt McCoy got the start and played well, completing 26-of-37 passes for 238 yards and a touchdown. As a starter last season, McCoy completed 57-of-70 passes for 577 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions, and he was good enough for Arizona’s skill position players to produce. Of course, I am not planning on starting McCoy against one of the league’s elite defenses but if he starts at quarterback again, I don’t believe we have to worry about Arizona’s pass-catchers.

Running Back

After dealing with a rib injury over the last few weeks, James Conner returned to the role we all were hoping to see this season in Week 10. Conner logged a whopping 96% of the snaps against the Rams, carrying the ball 21 times for 69 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He saw 24 touches on the day and even in arguably the worst matchup in football, Conner is a must-start running back with that type of usage. Yes, the 49ers have been stout against the run this season, as just 6.9% of the runs against this defense have gone for 10 or more yards, the second-lowest rate in football. With Eno Benjamin now in Houston, Conner should once again play 85-90% of the snaps, dominate the usage and see all of the goal-line carries.

Wide Receiver

Despite McCoy starting at quarterback last week, DeAndre Hopkins still got there, catching 10-of-14 targets for 98 yards. Hopkins has seen double-digit targets in three-of-four games since making his season debut in Week 7, sporting a healthy 33% target share during that span, the fourth-highest mark in the league. He’s a must-start wide receiver.

Meanwhile, Rondale Moore is also a borderline must-start. He caught nine passes for 94 yards last week, seeing 13 targets. Moore has now seen at least eight targets in five of his last six games, while averaging nearly nine targets per game since Week 5. The Cardinals are actually moving Moore all over the formation, though he’s still lined up in the slot 56% of the time over the last three weeks. That is the best path to success against this 49ers pass defense, as they are allowing a league-high 90.5 receiving yards per game to opposing pass-catchers out of the slot, while also allowing the fourth-most receptions (5.9) and second-most fantasy points (19.4) to the slot. As long as Marquise Brown doesn’t return to action this week, Moore will remain a must-start wide receiver.

Tight End

I’m taking a wait-and-see approach with Trey McBride this week, who will become the starting tight end for Arizona with Zach Ertz out for the remainder of the season. If McBride can receive the role that Ertz had, there is plenty of potential here, as Ertz was especially featured in the red zone. However, this is an awful matchup, as San Francisco is coughing up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (9.6).

49ers

Quarterback

I was pretty high on Jimmy Garoppolo last week, but he didn’t do much against the Chargers, throwing for 240 scoreless yards, while somewhat saving his day with a one-yard touchdown run. It was Garoppolo’s first game without multiple touchdown passes since Week 4, and I don’t fault anyone for going back to him as a streaming option this week. Opposing offenses are scoring points on 42.6% of drives against the Cardinals this season, the fourth-highest rate in football, while also allowing 2.35 points per drive, the fifth-most in the league. Arizona is also surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers on the year (19.1).

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey found the end zone last week, but many people are suddenly worried about his potential the rest of the season. In his first game back from injury, Elijah Mitchell ended up carrying the ball 18 times for 89 yards, logging 35% of the snaps. McCaffrey, meanwhile, played 65% of the snaps and recorded 18 touches. The good news, however, is that McCaffrey still saw every third-down snap, while seeing most of the goal line work. McCaffrey is still a must-start player, but his upside certainly takes a bit of a hit if Mitchell is going to continue to get plenty of work. Of course, McCaffrey is still seeing the more valuable touches (targets and goal line work) and should remain in your lineup. Mitchell is an OK flex play if you are hurting this week. 

Wide Receiver

Deebo Samuel has posted three consecutive underwhelming outings and caught just two passes last week. Samuel has seen at least seven targets in all but two games this season, but he hasn’t been posting many WR1 games. San Francisco now legitimately has six players that warrant touches in this offense, which means you will have to rely on Samuel to be hyper-efficient most weeks. This, however, could be one of those efficient weeks, as Samuel faces an Arizona defense that allows a league-leading 1,535 yards after the catch (6.2 yards per completion), which bodes extremely well for Samuel, who is averaging 9.2 yards after the catch per reception this season, the highest mark among wide receivers with at least 20 targets this season. This could easily be a spike week for Samuel, who is a WR2 with upside in this matchup.

Brandon Aiyuk did it again last week, catching six passes for 84 yards. He has now recorded at least 80 receiving yards in each of his last four games, scoring three touchdowns during that span. He continues to see more targets on a consistent basis than Samuel and remains an extremely strong WR3 play.

Tight End

George Kittle went back to run-blocking last week, as he paced all tight ends with 41 run-blocking snaps. He finished the game with just one catch for 21 yards and these games are going to happen with Kittle. While it is frustrating that Kittle doesn’t have the role of Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, we have to push forward and continue starting him without hesitation, especially this week in one of the best matchups in fantasy. The Cardinals are allowing the most fantasy points (19.8), most receiving yards (77.8), most receptions (7.5) and most targets (9.0) per game to opposing tight ends this season. And as we discussed, Arizona is allowing the most yards after the catch in football, which is terrific for Kittle, giving him a chance to make the most of potential limited volume.