Week 10 Fantasy Football Game By Game Breakdown

We have reached the double-digits, as Week 10 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday. Bye weeks and injuries to key players continue to play a huge factor in fantasy lineup decisions so hopefully this article can help with your thought process. And oh, by the way, it feels great to no longer be constantly nauseous.

You know, in case you were wondering.

Week 10 byes: Baltimore, Cincinnati, New England, New York Jets

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Total: 43.5, ATL -3
Pace: CAR: 26.1 sec/snap (4th), ATL: 29.8 sec/snap (28th)

What to watch for: Chuba Hubbard has missed the last two games with an ankle injury.

Panthers

Quarterback

After consecutive solid outings, PJ Walker completed just 3-of-10 passes for nine yards and two interceptions against the Bengals Sunday. He will remain Carolina’s starting signal caller in a good matchup against the Falcons, but it is obviously difficult to recommend Walker as a viable fantasy football option. We saw Baker Mayfield start the second half last week and while that obviously isn’t a lock to happen again, if Walker struggles again Thursday, Carolina — still very much in the mix in the NFC South — could certainly make a change at quarterback again.

Running Back

With Chuba Hubbard (ankle) ruled out, it paved the way for D’Onta Foreman to become a top-15 fantasy running back once again. However, the gamescript was the worst you could possibly imagine for Foreman, as Carolina trailed 35-0 at halftime, limiting him to just 43% of the snaps and only nine touches for 21 total yards. With this being a short week for the Panthers, it is entirely possible that Hubbard misses his third straight game, which would keep Foreman in the RB2 discussion, especially against a weak Atlanta defense that is surrendering the fourth-most points per drive (2.43), second-most yards per drive (39.8) and the most plays (6.7) per drive in the NFL. We saw Raheem Blackshear get nine touches and score a touchdown last week, but that was due to the blowout, so if Hubbard remains sidelined, I’d expect similar usage from Foreman that we saw in Week 8. In that game against these same Falcons, Foreman rushed for 118 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries, while logging 68% of the snaps, handling 26-of-34 running back touches and seeing three carries from inside the 5-yard line. Foreman hasn’t been used much on passing downs, which will likely be Hubbard’s role once he’s back, but a home game against Atlanta should lead to a more favorable gamescript.

Wide Receiver

Just as we thought we could trust DJ Moore as a high-end WR3/low-end WR2, he posted a stat line of two catches for 24 yards. Of course, this was almost entirely due to the fact that Carolina completely laid an egg in this game — Moore is still seeing tremendous usage as of late. His 34% usage rate since Week 6 is the third-highest rate among all wide receivers, and no player in football has seen a higher percentage of his team’s air yards during that span than Moore (52.9%). Now he gets a struggling, banged-up Atlanta secondary that Moore recorded 152 yards and a touchdown against just two weeks ago, while wide receivers continue to absolutely torch this defense. The Falcons are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the season, as well as six different wideouts to reach 100-plus yards, including four over the last four games. Moore will see primary coverage from Darren Hall, who is allowing a 131.0 passer rating, a 73% catch rate and 0.25 fantasy points per coverage route on the year. Moore is a high-end WR3 play this week.

In deeper leagues, we need to start considering Terrace Marshall. He found the end zone last week, hauling in three passes for 53 yards and has clearly established himself as the WR2 in Carolina. Sure, his touchdown came in garbage time, but Marshall’s usage has been trending upwards since the Robbie Anderson trade. Over the last two weeks, Marshall has played 93% and 92% of the snaps, while running a route on 67 of 70 dropbacks (96%). And during this two-week span, Marshall leads the entire NFL in end zone targets with five and while he won’t lead the league in this department the rest of the year, I also don’t think it is a fluke. In Week 8 against the Falcons, Carolina drew up three end zone fades to Marshall, who came dangerously close to converting at least two of them. Between his uptick in involvement and a dream matchup against the Falcons, Marshall has entered the WR3 discussion in deep leagues, especially with a handful of teams on bye. 

WRs vs. Atlanta since Week 6

Tight End

Tommy Tremble found the end zone for the second time this season, his second of the last three weeks. Of course, you still aren’t starting him in most fantasy leagues, despite how weak the tight end position is.

Falcons

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota had a quiet game last week, as Atlanta’s ground attack did most of the work. Mariota completed just 12-of-23 passes for 129 yards and zero scores, adding 24 rushing yards. Against an awful Chargers run defense, Atlanta dominated with their loved rushing game, which once again limited Mariota’s passing volume, and he wasn’t able to keep up his insane fantasy point per dropback efficiency. It is always risky streaming Mariota, because he is averaging just 22.3 pass attempts per game on the year, and the Falcons are sporting the league’s lowest passing rate in neutral gamescripts (42.48%) and only passing on 45% of plays when trailing by eight or more points, the third-lowest rate in the league. Mariota had a great game against Carolina two weeks ago, throwing for a season-high 253 yards and three scores, but a lot of that game off some unsustainable YAC plays. The veteran signal caller continues to provide a floor with his rushing, as he’s posted at least 30 rushing yards in five games on the year. 

Running Back

After a four-week IR stint, Cordarrelle Patterson returned Sunday and looked great, rushing for 44 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 13 carries. His second touchdown came from a few yards out where Patterson lowered his shoulder and trucked Drue Tranquil on his way to the end zone. In his first game back, Patterson logged 37% of the snaps, the same number as Tyler Allgeier, Patterson did play four of Atlanta’s five snaps at the goal line, which is great to see, especially in an Atlanta offense that is running the football 68.4% of the time in the red zone, the second-highest rate in football. You’d expect Patterson to play a bit more in his second week back, though it being a short week means it’s possible he still cedes some work to Allgeier, who ran well last week to the tone of for 99 yards on 10 carries. Still, Patterson is a borderline must-start running back, especially against a reeling Carolina run defense that just allowed Joe Mixon to score five total touchdowns last week on 153 yards. Allowing that type of production to a Cincinnati ground attack that ranks bottom-five in yards before contact per attempt (1.65) is incredibly troubling. The Panthers have now allowed nine rushing touchdowns to opposing backfields, the fourth-most in football, as well as the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

Wide Receiver

Drake London has now accumulated 17 catches for 155 yards and zero touchdowns on 31 targets since Week 4. The rookie hasn’t eclipsed 40 receiving yards in a game since Week 3 and with Kyle Pitts becoming more involved as of late, there simply isn’t enough volume in this passing game for both London and Pitts to post good fantasy numbers. And now London has a tough matchup against Jaycee Horn, who is one of the best defensive backs in football that not enough people seem to be talking about. Horn is currently coughing up just a 37.9 passer rating in coverage this season, the second-lowest rate among qualified defensive backs behind only Darius Slay. He is also allowing a reception every 20.5 coverage snaps, the second-best mark in football and just 6.3 yards per reception (fourth lowest), so London might not even be able to make up for the lack of passing volume with splash plays. I wouldn’t drop him or anything, but you can’t start him right now.

Tight End

After posting his best game of the season in Week 8, Kyle Pitts came back down to earth in Week 9, hauling in two passes for 27 yards. However, this is the most enthusiastic I’ve been after a down Pitts game all year long, as he saw seven targets and about 200 air yards. He also should have had a 50-plus-yard touchdown, but Mariota overthrew him. Over the last two weeks, Pitts has posted a 31.3% target share, the highest rate among all tight ends, while running a route on a healthy 83% of dropbacks. In this offense, Pitts is certainly going to have some underwhelming games, but his upside is too high to bench in most leagues, despite the up-and-down nature.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Germany)

Total: 44.5, TB -2.5
Pace: TB: 25.6 sec/snap (1st), SEA: 27.45 sec/snap (11th)

What to watch for: Cameron Brate continues to deal with a neck injury. 

Buccaneers

Quarterback

Tom Brady was on his way to failing to score a touchdown last week, but he connected on a touchdown pass with nine seconds left to win the game. He completed 36-of-58 passes for just 280 yards, as his 2.23 average seconds to throw is still pretty comfortably the fastest mark in the league. It continues to limit what Brady can do down the field, and the Hall of Fame quarterback remains someone you can start in favorable matchups, but even then you are tempering expectations. This week’s matchup against Seattle is fine, as the Seahawks are coughing up the sixth-most plays (6.3), 11th-most points (2.13) and seventh-most yards (34) per drive this season. We’ll see if Tampa Bay continues to struggle to run the football, as Brady has attempted at least 40 passes in each of his last seven contests, but even added volume hasn’t led to strong fantasy numbers. 

Running Back

If it weren’t for Leonard Fournette’s presence in the passing game, his total numbers would be unbelievably bad. Fournette rushed for just 19 yards on nine carries last week, giving him three straight games with less than 30 rushing yards. He hasn’t averaged more than 3.0 yards per carry since Week 5, as Tampa Bay continues to struggle to create running lanes, ranking 32nd in yards before contact per attempt. Rookie Rachaad White continues to handle about 30% of the snaps and seven or eight touches per game, though last week he saw a season-high 11 touches. It appears the gap is closing between Fournette and White, which continues to push the veteran down the ranks in fantasy. He is saving you by averaging 4.6 receptions and 5.4 receptions per game, but he has now plummeted to low-end RB2 status. 

Wide Receiver

In a game where Brady threw the ball nearly 60 times, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were both extremely disappointing. Evans hauled in just five of the 11 passes thrown his way for 40 scoreless yards, while Godwin caught seven passes but only recorded 36 yards. Godwin continues to see very little work down the field, as he’s mostly being used in the screen game. In fact, his 14 targets off screens trail only Cooper Kupp (despite Godwin missing a few games) and his 13 receptions off screens are also second. 23% of his targets are coming off screens, one of the highest rates, and while it does give him easy-to-convert looks and a strong floor for receptions, it continues to limit his upside, while he’s failed to find the end zone. I’m still chasing the volume and touchdown regression and a matchup with Seattle is strong, as the Seahawks have actually done a pretty good job of limiting perimeter wide receivers for most of the season, while they are more vulnerable to the slot. Consider Godwin a low-end WR2, while Evans is a mid-range WR2. The upside is still massive, and he’ll continue to dominate red zone usage.

Tight End

With Cameron Brate still sidelined, rookie Cade Otton drew yet another start at tight end Sunday. He remained very busy, hauling in 5-of-6 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. He has seen at least five targets in every game he’s started this season and in those four games, Otton is averaging a snap share of 88%, while running a route on 185 of Tampa Bay’s 212 dropbacks (87%). If Brate can’t return to the lineup this week, Brate would be a borderline top-12 tight end, especially against a Seattle defense that is coughing up the second-most fantasy points (20.0), fourth-most targets (8.0) and most receiving yards (77.4) per game to opposing tight ends.

Cade Otton in four starts in 2022

*Scored a TD in Week 9

Seahawks

Quarterback

At what point do we start talking about Geno Smith as an MVP candidate?

The Seattle Seahawks are the surprise team of the season, are sitting atop the NFC West with a 6-3 record, and Smith is the reason why. Smith has completed 73% of his passes for 2,199 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions so far this season and according to PFF, Smith’s big time throw rate of 5.8% ranks top-five among qualified passers. He’s also top five in highlight throws, per FTN Fantasy. From a fantasy perspective, Smith has recorded multiple touchdown games in seven-of-nine weeks this season, while ranking as the QB8 in all of fantasy. Seattle’s been more pass-happy this season, especially on early downs, while they have also picked up the pace, making for a pretty fantasy-friendly offense. Continue to start Geno as a high-end QB2 in fantasy.

Running Back

Kenneth Walker scored two more touchdowns Sunday, giving him a touchdown in each of his last five games, finding the end zone a total of seven times during that span. Since Week 6, Walker is the RB2 in fantasy, averaging 22 fantasy points per game. During that span, he is also averaging 23.5 touches per game. He’s been a tackle-avoiding machine, ranking third in avoided tackles over the last four games (21) and remains a must-start running back, regardless of matchup.

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett each found the end zone last week. On the other hand, Arizona once again did a good job of limiting the long passing plays, as Metcalf’s longest reception went for just nine yards. Still, he has now scored in three consecutive games and continues to dominate the red zone usage, seeing 42% of Seattle’s targets from inside the 20-yard line this season, the highest rate in all of football, while his 38.5% target share from inside the 10-yard line ranks seventh. Seattle’s offense is so concentrated, with Metcalf and Lockett accounting for 49% of the Seahawks’ targets, 45% of their receptions and 50.3% of the receiving yards. Continue to start both players as mid-range WR2 options.

Tight End

Noah Fant is coming off a great game against the Cardinals struggling tight end defense, hauling in five passes for 96 yards. Of course, he once again essentially split snaps with Will Dissly, playing 44 snaps to Dissly’s 43. He did run 24 pass routes to Dissly’s 14, while out-targeting him 6-4. If Fant was the lone tight end in this offense, he’d be a back-end TE1, especially given how well Smith is playing. This week’s matchup against Tampa Bay is favorable, too, as the Bucs are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this year (14.0), but Fant remains a risky TE2.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Total: 48.5, CHI -2.5
Pace: CHI: 27.76 sec/snap (19th), DET: 27.6 sec/snap (14th)

What to watch for: Will D’Andre Swift’s workload climb? Or will he remain in this limited role?

Bears

Quarterback

Justin Fields has arrived, and I couldn’t be happier. I have been incredibly high on Fields for years, and after a bit of a turbulent start, the sophomore signal caller is putting it together. It continued Sunday, as he carried the Bears to a near victory against the Dolphins, rushing for 178 yards and a touchdown and throwing for 123 and three more scores. His 178 rushing yards were the most by a quarterback in a regular-season game in NFL history, as Fields’ athleticism remains a key part of this Chicago offense. After a Thursday night game against Washington in Week 6, head coach Matt Eberflus began finding more ways for Fields to make plays in the rushing game. It has been very evident that has been their approach, as Fields has 37 rushing attempts since Week 7. However, 24 of those 37 rushes (65%) have been designed, as Fields has now rushed for at least 47 yards in all but one game this season, averaging 10.1 rushing attempts and 67 rushing yards per game through nine contests.

Since Week 6, Fields is the fantasy QB1, averaging a gaudy 27.6 fantasy points per game and 0.81 fantasy points per dropback. Fields should continue to post top-10 numbers against a Lions defense that played well last week but is still not a good unit, surrendering the most points (2.59) and yards (40.2) per drive this year, while opposing offenses are scoring on 44.6% of drives against Detroit, the highest rate in football. The Lions also play man coverage 70-80% of the time, which is terrifying against Fields, who can take off and run with defenders’ backs turned in man coverage. The Lions are allowing 28.1 rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers, the second-most in the league, allowing 90 rushing yards and a touchdown to Jalen Hurts and 49 rushing yards and a score to Geno Smith in Weeks 1 and 4. Start Fields with confidence as a top-seven fantasy quarterback.

Source: NFL Next Gen Stats

Running Back

Khalil Herbert continues to be much more efficient than David Montgomery, but it hasn’t led to a shift in this backfield. A few weeks ago, Eberflus said the Bears would use a hot hand approach, but it hasn’t completely happened. In Weeks 7-8, Herbert carried the ball 12 and 16 times, averaging 5.2 and 6.2 yards per carry. Montgomery, meanwhile, averaged 4.1 and 3.5 yards per carry on 30 attempts during that span. Chicago continues to play Montgomery for two drives, followed by Herbert for one. Over the last two weeks, the snap shares have been identical, as Montgomery has played 70% of the snaps in both games, while Herbert has played 28% in both contests. Sunday, Montgomery touched the ball 15 times, giving him at least 15 touches in each of his last four games. That obviously isn’t the volume you were expecting to start the season, but Chicago is running the ball so much that Montgomery can still get 15-18 touches in this offense, even if he eventually does split work with Herbert. A matchup with the Lions is obviously elite, as Detroit is coughing up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (24.9), as well as 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position, the second-most in football. Montgomery can be trusted as a solid RB2 in this matchup, while Herbert has flex appeal. He’s still fifth among qualified running backs in yards after contact per attempt (3.97) and sixth in runs of 10-plus yards (17).

Wide Receiver

While he isn’t posting huge numbers in this offense, Darnell Mooney caught seven passes for 43 yards and a touchdown last week. It broke a streak of five consecutive games with 50-plus receiving yards, but you’ll obviously take the touchdown. Mooney is the WR24 in fantasy since Week 4, ranking sixth among all wide receivers in target share (31.3%) and air yards share (41.7%) during that span. In his first game alongside recently acquired Chase Claypool, Mooney saw eight targets and still played plenty of snaps from the slot, lining up on the inside 62.5% of the time. That is great to see and should help Mooney continue to see favorable matchups most weeks. He’ll remain a solid WR3 against the Lions, who are allowing the fourth-most deep passing touchdowns (4), as well as the sixth-highest completion rate against passes 20-yards or more down the field (48.6%). 

Chase Claypool made his Chicago debut last week. He only played 35% of the snaps but still saw six targets on just 16 pass routes, adding a rushing attempt. I was very interested to see if Claypool would continue to play in the slot, where he played about 80% of the time in Pittsburgh to start the year. However, Claypool lined up inside just 11.8% of the time in his Bears debut, so at the moment, it doesn’t appear that Chicago is planning on using him as a huge slot receiver like he was in Pittsburgh, though having Diontae Johnson and George Pickens on the outside naturally moved Claypool inside. The playing time should skyrocket in his second game with the team, but the passing volume is still a concern. A matchup with Detroit is favorable, as the Lions are coughing up a league-worst 9.4-yard aDOT, but Claypool remains a risky flex play in Week 10.

Tight End

Cole Kmet scored two more touchdowns Sunday, giving him three over the last two weeks after not finding the end zone at all in 2021. It is obviously encouraging to see and a matchup with Detroit is favorable if you are really desperate for a tight end to stream. However, Kmet still has a ceiling of five or six targets on a weekly basis, giving him a very, very low floor. 

Lions

Quarterback

Jared Goff had a middling day last week, throwing for just 137 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Detroit relied on their running game against a weak Green Bay run defense and could very well do the same this week against the Bears, who have been a massive run funnel this season. Through nine weeks of play, 42.3% of the yardage against Chicago has come on the ground, the fifth-highest rate in football, while 55.5% of the touchdowns scored against the Bears have been via the run, the third-highest rate. This game should feature plenty of rushing attempts, which will limit possessions for Goff and the offense. The veteran signal caller is a low-upside QB2 this week and if possible, I’d look for other options.

Running Back

After Week 8, Lions head coach Dan Campbell said they probably gave D’Andre Swift one carry too many, which was incredibly alarming in a game where he had five total carries. Swift clearly isn’t 100% healthy and the Lions continued to limit him last week, as he logged just 10-of-62 snaps, touching the ball five times for 50 yards. Even with Craig Reynolds leaving the game, it didn’t result in more opportunities for Swift, as Justin Jackson came in and played 21% of the snaps and recorded four carries. Monday, Campbell said the team is “hopeful” they can give Swift a little bit more this week, but that really doesn’t sound too encouraging. His upside for touches right now seems like 10-12 and because Swift has been so efficient, that is enough to play him as an extremely risky RB2/flex play, especially against a bad Chicago run defense that is stuffing just 15% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the sixth-lowest rate in football. 

Jamaal Williams, however, remains the preferred Lions running back, as he played 61% of the snaps on Sunday, his highest snap share of the season. Williams carried the ball 24 times for 81 yards, while adding a two-point conversion. The total of 24 carries is unlikely to repeat but the veteran should remain in the 15- to 18-touch range, while dominating the short-yardage work. Williams still ranks second in the NFL in carries from inside the five-yard line this season (14), handling 100% of Detroit’s carries from that part of the field this season. This is a good matchup for Williams to remain a high-end flex play, facing a Bears defense that allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (26.6), as well as the fifth-most rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position (1.11). No team in football has allowed more rushing touchdowns than Chicago (15), while they are also coughing up 147.2 rushing yards per game (third most).

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn’t had a huge game since Week 2, though he’s obviously dealt with some injuries as of late. He still continues to dominate targets for Detroit, seeing 19 looks over the last two weeks, resulting in target shares of 37.5% and 27.0% during that span. St. Brown has the best individual matchup here, facing rookie defensive back Kyler Gordon, who is allowing a reception every 6.0 coverage snaps from the slot this year, the fifth-worst rate among qualified defensive backs. He’s also allowed two touchdowns in slot coverage, as well as the second-most receiving yards (374). Gordon is also coughing up nearly 0.40 fantasy points per coverage route and an 80% catch rate, two of the worst rates in the league. St. Brown remains a must-start wide receiver and remains a strong WR2.

Tight End

In Detroit’s first game since trading T.J. Hockenson, Brock Wright — who had been the No. 2 tight end behind Hockenson — dominated the snaps, logging 50-of-62 snaps (80%), running a route on 58% of dropbacks. Shane Zylstra and James Mitchell each found the end zone, but they ran a combined 12 pass routes, while Wright wasn’t even targeted in the passing game. Feel free to look elsewhere at tight end.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 50.5, KC -9.5
Pace: JAC: 26.42 sec/snap (5th), KC: 26.83 sec/snap (7th)

What to watch for: What will Kadarius Toney’s playing time look like going forward?

Chiefs

Quarterback

The Chiefs are coming off an ugly win Sunday night where the offense struggled to get things going. Still, Patrick Mahomes threw for over 400 yards for the second consecutive week, though it took him a whopping 68 pass attempts to get there last week. He also rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown and continues to be amazing. This week he faces a Jacksonville defense that has allowed six touchdown passes of 20-plus yards this season, the second most in the NFL through nine weeks of play. Mahomes has scored multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season and is an obvious top-three quarterback. 

Running Back

Hopefully you traded Clyde Edwards-Helaire when you had the chance.

After logging a season-low 27% of the snaps before Kansas City’s bye in Week 7, Edwards-Helaire played just 17% of the snaps against Tennessee last week, as Isiah Pacheco once again got the “start,” though Jerick McKinnon paced the backfield with a 62% snap share and nine touches. McKinnon has quietly logged at least 43% of the snaps in each of the last four games, while averaging a respectable 3.2 receptions and 4.25 targets per game during that span. As expected, the Chiefs didn’t even try running the football against Tennessee’s pass funnel defense last week, but this still doesn’t look like an offense that is going to rely on the run anytime soon, especially with Mahomes under center. In games where the Chiefs are leading by a lot, Pacheco gets the edge and if they ever are forced to play catch up, McKinnon would get the nod, making Edwards-Helaire a must-sit player. McKinnon will be my top-ranked Kansas City running back this week and is an okay flex play if you are desperate, facing a Jacksonville defense that is coughing up the fourth-most receptions (6.7), fourth-most targets (8.1) and third-most receiving yards per game (48.3) to opposing running backs on the year.

Kansas City RBs Week 6, 7, 9

Wide Receiver

JuJu Smith-Schuster stayed hot last week, hauling in 10 passes for 88 yards. He was targeted 12 times, giving him at least eight targets in all but two games this season, as the veteran slot receiver continues to operate as Kansas City’s top wideout. This is a good matchup for Smith-Schuster to keep it going, facing a Jacksonville secondary that is struggling a bit as of late, just allowing a huge game to Davante Adams. They also allowed fellow slot wide receiver Jerry Jeudy to catch 6-of-7 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 and are bottom-10 in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing slot receivers. The Jaguars are also coughing up the fourth-most yards after the catch (1,164 and nearly 6.0 per completion), which bodes well for Smith-Schuster, who ranks second among all wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception (7.9). Jacksonville has also missed the most tackles in the NFL, making this a great spot for Smith-Schuster.

Meanwhile, Mecole Hardman found the end zone again last week, giving him four total touchdowns over the last two weeks. Hardman posted season-highs in receptions (6), yards (79) and targets (9), though his snap share did drop a bit from Week 7. Hardman likely won’t see nine targets in a game again this season unless the Chiefs throw 70 passes again but he’s gaining steam as a potential flex play, especially against a Jacksonville defense that is allowing the fourth-most YAC and second-most deep passing touchdowns in the league. However, if Kadarius Toney, who played just 9% of the snaps in his Kansas City debut, sees more playing time, it would likely come at the expense of Hardman.

Tight End

You know, usually if a tight end goes three straight weeks without a touchdown, they are disappointing in fantasy. And then there is Travis Kelce, who has recorded 106, 98 and 108 receiving yards over his three-game scoreless drought, while seeing 17, 8 and 10 targets during that span. Kelce now has three 100-yard games this season, while having at least 90 yards or a touchdown in all but one game. He’s good at football.

Jaguars

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence played well in a win over the Raiders, completing 25-of-31 passes for 235 yards and a touchdown, while adding 53 rushing yards. Very quietly, Lawrence is ninth among quarterbacks in designed rushing attempts this season (23), with a handful of them being quarterback sneaks at the goal line. He is averaging a solid 1.1 red zone carries per game, 10th among quarterbacks, while his three rushing touchdowns rank fifth. Lawrence, who has had issues in the red zone this season, was much better against a bad Raiders red zone defense last week, and now he faces a Kansas City defense that is also struggling in that area, allowing opposing offenses to score points on 70.4% of red zone trips this season, the third-worst rate in football. That bodes well for Lawrence, who is completing just 47.7% of passes in the red zone, the ninth-worst rate in the league. Lawrence should be throwing a lot here, as opposing offenses are averaging 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs, the third-most in football, making Lawrence a solid QB2.

Running Back

Travis Etienne is out here just winning fantasy leagues. He was awesome once again last week, totaling 126 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on 30 touches. In three games since becoming Jacksonville’s lead running back, Etienne has logged 79.6% of the snaps, has handled 72-of-84 Jacksonville running back touches (86%) and is the RB2 in all of fantasy football. During that same span, Etienne also leads the NFL with seven carries from inside the 5-yard line. He now ranks fifth in the league in missed tackles forced (38), sixth in carries of 10 yards or more (17) and fourth in runs of 15-plus yards (11). His 6.1 yards per touch ranks fifth among all running backs. You would love to see Jacksonville get him a bit more involved in the passing game, especially in this matchup. Just 29% of the yardage allowed by the Chiefs has come via the run, the fourth-lowest rate in the league, but where you can get after them is with running backs in the passing game. Kansas City is allowing the most receptions (7.9), most targets (9.5) and second-most receiving yards (54.5) per game to opposing backfields this season and if Jacksonville falls behind in this game, you hope he gets a lot of work in the passing game. Regardless, he’s an obvious must-start fantasy running back with plenty of upside.

Wide Receiver

Christian Kirk has been a bit up-and-down as of late but had a good game in a good matchup last week, catching 8-of-9 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders. Kirk remains a much more efficient and productive player when both Marvin and Zay Jones are on the field because it keeps him in the slot, where he is now lining up 74.9% of the time this season, the 13th-highest rate in the league. Assuming the Jaguars fall behind in this game, Kirk will be very busy and gets a fine matchup against L’Jarius Sneed in the slot, who is allowing 0.27 fantasy points per coverage route and a 76% catch rate in coverage so far this season. Keep starting Kirk as a high-end WR3.

Meanwhile, Marvin Jones and Zay Jones remain boom/bust flex plays in deeper leagues. Zay is at least still tied for seventh in the league with eight end zone targets and we already discussed how Kansas City has struggled to play defense in the red zone, and he’s had at least five targets in all but two games this season. 

Tight End

Evan Engram was playing his usual role for Jacksonville before suffering a back injury. He ultimately finished the game playing just 55% of the snaps, well below his 80-90% snap share from the previous few weeks. After the game, head coach Doug Pederson said Engram is day-to-day but should be fine for Week 10. If he’s good to go, I’m still starting him as a low-end TE1. His role is too good to ignore, and he should continue to play 80% or more of the snaps and rank top-five at the tight end position in routes run. If he’s out, however, Dan Arnold would enter the streaming conversation. Despite Engram emerging as the lead tight end, Arnold is still a good player who makes plays down the field, ranking top-10 in both yards per route run (1.61) and yards per reception (8.3) among tight ends a season ago.

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins

Total: 48.5, MIA -3.5
Pace: MIA: 28.3 sec/snap (22nd), CLE: 27.68 sec/snap (17th)

What to watch for: David Njoku (ankle) plans on playing in Week 10.

Dolphins

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa is coming off his second consecutive 300-yard, three-touchdown game Sunday and is now averaging 22.7 fantasy points per game in the six full games he’s played in this season. As I often discuss, this Mike McDaniel offense has been spectacular, consistently putting Miami’s best players in positions to succeed, while keeping defenses on their toes with more pre-snap motion than any team in the league. Tagovailoa is certainly benefiting from plenty of open pass-catchers, while he’s still underthrowing receivers down the field, however, his 64.3% completion rate off deep passes is the third-best mark among qualified signal callers this season. Tagovailoa will remain a low-end QB1 against a vulnerable Cleveland pass defense that is allowing the seventh-most yards per pass attempt in the league (7.4), as well as a 48.3% completion rate (8th-worst), 557 yards (bottom-five) and three touchdowns off deep passes this season. 12% of the passes against Cleveland this year have gone for 20-plus yards, one of the highest rates in the NFL.

Running Back

The Dolphins traded for Jeff Wilson at the trade deadline and because of his familiarity with McDaniel’s offense, it was entirely possible he wouldn’t be eased in during his first game with his new team. That was the case, as Wilson logged 28 snaps to Raheem Mostert’s 26, while out-touching him 12-9. Mostert converted his goal-line carry into a touchdown, while Wilson caught a touchdown pass, though Mostert did play every single snap in the two-minute drill in this game. This backfield has the makings of a 50/50 split, which would make both into flex plays most weeks. They do have a solid Week 10 matchup against a Browns run defense that is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season (26.5), along with 1.13 rushing touchdowns per game, the third-most in the league.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill just keeps posting monster games. Hill’s amazing inaugural season in Miami continued last week, hauling in seven passes for 143 yards and a touchdown. Hill now has recorded at least 140 receiving yards in 5-of-9 games this season, while seeing double-digit targets in all but three games. His 21 deep targets lead the NFL, while he also ranks third in targets (13) and fourth in receptions (11) off screens, giving Hill an elite combination of floor and ceiling. He already has 76 receptions for 1,104 yards and three touchdowns on the year and should continue to thrive against a Cleveland secondary that is coughing up plenty of splash plays.

Jaylen Waddle, meanwhile, isn’t seeing the volume as Hill, but he’s been damn good, too. Waddle caught five passes for 85 yards and a touchdown last week, giving him at least 85 yards or a touchdown in each of his last four games. He’s an obvious top-15 wide receiver against Martin Emerson, who has 4.53 speed and is allowing 0.25 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season.

Tight End

Despite Tagovailoa having a huge game last week, Mike Gesicki didn’t do much of anything, catching just one pass for three yards on two targets. He was outsnapped by Durham Smythe 33-27 — with Smythe fully healthy over the last two weeks, Gesicki has been under 50% of the offensive snaps. In five games with Smythe active this season, Gesicki is averaging just two targets, 1.6 receptions, 16.2 receiving yards and 4.42 PPR points per contest, compared to 5.5 targets, 3.5 receptions, 39.2 receiving yards and 11.9 PPR points per game in four games with Smythe out of the lineup. 

Browns

Quarterback

Coming off a bye, Jacoby Brissett finds himself in the streaming consideration against a struggling Miami defense that just allowed 32 points to the Bears offense last week. The Dolphins are now allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (21.8), while allowing the seventh-highest passing touchdown rate (4.8%). Miami is also allowing the fourth-highest completion rate at 68.5% and while Nick Chubb and this Cleveland rushing attack can succeed against anyone, it is worth pointing out that the Dolphins have been a pass funnel this year. There still isn’t a massive ceiling here but Brissett could do just enough in this strong matchup if you need to replace Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson this week.

Running Back

Nick Chubb rushed for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns before the bye, as he continues to have a stellar season. He’s rushed for at least 100 yards in five games this season, finding the end zone 10 times. Chubb remains arguably the best running back in all of football and is obviously being started in every fantasy league in the world. Kareem Hunt, meanwhile, was not traded at the deadline and got back to his usual 15 touches last game. After seeing a combined 10 touches from Weeks 6-7, Hunt recorded 15 touches for 72 total yards against the Bengals in Week 8. Perhaps Cleveland was limiting him ahead of the deadline to potentially keep him healthy, but it was great to see him get back to his normal workload, which puts him back on the high-end flex radar. Miami, meanwhile, is surrendering the seventh-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs this season (41.8).

Wide Receiver

When we last saw Cleveland play, Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones were crushing Cincinnati’s defense. Cooper caught five passes for 131 yards and a touchdown, giving him three scores over his last four contests. His 27.6% target share ranks 10th among all wide receivers, while his 39.9% percentage of Cleveland’s air yards is the seventh-best mark in football. Cooper has been more productive at home this season, which isn’t really new for him. In five home games, Cooper is averaging 10.4 targets, 6.4 receptions, 90.6 receiving yards, one touchdown and 21 PPR points per game, but on the road, those numbers drop to 4.67 targets, 2.3 receptions, 33.3 receiving yards and 5.6 PPR points per game. The Browns are on the road here, but it is difficult to sit Cooper given his role, while a matchup with Xavien Howard actually isn’t the worst, as he’s allowing 0.36 fantasy points per coverage route.

Peoples-Jones is a viable WR3, too. Very quietly, DPJ is averaging 69.4 receiving yards, 4.6 receptions and 6.2 targets per game. He’s recorded at least 70 receiving yards in four of his last five games, while recording a catch of 35-plus yards in four of his last five, too. Peoples-Jones is averaging 11.3 yards before the catch per reception on the year, tied for the seventh-highest rate among qualified wideouts, giving him splash play potential. He’ll have plenty of opportunities this week against Keion Crossen, who is allowing 19.9 yards per reception in coverage this season, the second-highest mark among qualified defensive backs.

Tight End

The bye week appeared to have helped David Njoku, as the tight end is now planning on playing this week, despite originally being expected to miss 2-5 weeks. We’ll keep an eye on practice reports throughout the week but if Njoku is active, he returns to top-12 status among fantasy tight ends. In Njoku’s absence in Week 8, Harrison Bryant got the start and logged 74% of the snaps but was not targeted. Miami, meanwhile, just allowed Cole Kmet to score two touchdowns against them last week.

Houston Texans @ New York Giants

Total: 40.5, NYG -6.5
Pace: NYG: 28.3 sec/snap (23rd), HOU: 29.06 sec/snap (25th)

What to watch for: Brandin Cooks should be back for Week 10, while Nico Collins (groin) remains questionable. For the Giants, safety Xavier McKinney will miss time with a hand injury.

Giants

Quarterback

Through eight games, Daniel Jones has thrown just six touchdown passes, adding 363 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. There isn’t much of a fantasy ceiling unless Jones has a huge rushing performance … which is possible, given how often Brian Daboll is using Jones’ mobility in this offense. Jones’ 33 designed rushing attempts are tied for sixth among all quarterbacks this season, and he’s averaging 8.0 carries (fourth), 1.6 red zone carries (fifth) and 45.4 rushing yards per game (fourth). He’s failed to reach 200 passing yards in six of eight games this season, and this should be a game where Jones doesn’t throw the ball around again, facing a Houston team that cannot stop the run. As a result, opposing offenses are averaging just 31.0 pass attempts per game (fifth fewest), sporting the third-lowest passing play percentage (50.1%). The Texans have run just 18 total plays when leading by eight or more points this season, allowing opposing offenses to take their foot off the gas pedal in the second half of games. Jones is a serviceable QB2 in superflex leagues but lacks the ceiling here.

Running Back

Start Saquon Barkley.

He’s one of the best running backs in the league and faces the worst run defense in the league. I really don’t think anything more needs to be said but in case you want to feel even better about Barkley, consider that the Texans have allowed 1.50 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing backfields, the most in the NFL. They just allowed both Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell to find the end zone against them last week, while 60% of the touchdowns scored against Houston have come on the ground, the highest rate in football. The Texans also allow plenty of explosive runs, which is great for Barkley, who ranks fifth in runs of 10-plus yards (19) and second in runs of 15-plus yards (12). 

Wide Receiver

After clearly emerging as the Giants’ WR1 in Week 6, Wan’Dale Robinson disappointed in Week 8, catching just two passes for 15 yards. He’s played 69% of the snaps in each of his last two games but this passing game isn’t good enough to consider Robinson as anything more than a low-ceiling WR4. Over his last two games, Robinson is sporting an ugly 2.6-yard aDOT, the second-lowest rate among wide receivers during that span, while he’s yet to see a deep target. Meanwhile, Kenny Golladay could actually return to the lineup this week, which could lead to a few less targets for Robinson.

Tight End

I will not be starting Tanner Hudson or Chris Myarick in fantasy football leagues this weekend.

Texans

Quarterback

Davis Mills got off to a good start against Philadelphia last Thursday, tossing a pair of touchdowns in the first half. However, things fell apart in the second half, as Mills threw two interceptions and was sacked a handful of times. Mills passed for just 154 yards, making it his fourth game of the year with fewer than 200 passing yards. While you likely aren’t starting Mills in most fantasy leagues, it is pretty interesting that he ranks 11th in completion rate (65.8%), while throwing five touchdowns to zero interceptions against the blitz this season. The Giants, meanwhile, are blitzing a league-high 39.1% of the time this season. Does it really mean anything? Maybe, maybe not. But it’s at least a little interesting.

Running Back

Once again, Dameon Pierce was the clear focal point of Houston’s offense last week, rushing for 139 yards on 27 carries. He wasn’t targeted in the passing game, ending a nice streak of at least three receptions in four straight games. Pierce is now averaging 23.3 touches per game since taking over this backfield back in Week 3 and now ranks fourth in the league in avoided tackles per attempt (0.34) on the season, while only Nick Chubb and Josh Jacobs have forced more missed tackles than Pierce (50). The talented rookie remains a borderline top-12 option against a weak Giants run defense that is stuffing just 12% of carries at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, tied for the second-lowest rate in the league. They are also allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game (137.3), making this a strong matchup for Pierce.

Wide Receiver

I definitely don’t feel great about starting anyone from this passing game right now. Brandin Cooks was inactive last week but should be back Sunday. He’s underwhelmed a bit this season, scoring just one touchdown and failing to reach 100 yards in a game yet. He saw double-digit targets in Weeks 1 and 2 to start the season but hasn’t since, as Houston has something they didn’t have at all a season ago– a competent running game. Cooks has a tough matchup this week, facing a Giants defense that has done well against perimeter wide receivers, as Adoree’ Jackson is allowing just a 56% catch rate in coverage on the year. I don’t envision a shadow situation here, as Jackson hasn’t shadowed since Week 3 with CeeDee Lamb, but it is still a tough matchup nonetheless. Cooks should dominate targets, especially if Nico Collins remains sidelined, but he’s merely a WR3 at the moment. 

Tight End

The Houston tight ends weren’t even involved with both Cooks and Collins out last week. No thanks.

New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 40.5, NO -2.5
Pace: PIT: 27.02 sec/snap (10th), NO: 27.9 sec/snap (21st)

What to watch for: It sounds like T.J. Watt will make his return this week, while Jaylen Warren could get more work in the backfield. 

Steelers

Quarterback

Kenny Pickett has been struggling as of late so hopefully the bye week has helped. Over his last four games, Pickett has thrown just two touchdowns to five interceptions, scoring fewer than 15 fantasy points in every game during that span. New Orleans’ defense has taken a step back this season, but Pickett simply should not be started in fantasy leagues right now.

Running Back

Najee Harris has hovered around the high-end RB3 range for me as of late and that won’t change this week, especially after recent reports out of Pittsburgh hinting toward Jaylen Warren potentially seeing more work going forward. Harris’ usage in the passing game has climbed as of late, which is huge for his fantasy potential giving how inefficient he is. Since Week 5, Harris is averaging a healthy 4.25 targets and 3.2 receptions per game. But it sounds like Warren could get more work going forward — in all honesty, he deserves it. Despite seeing 29 carries to Harris’ 108, Warren has just two fewer runs of 10-plus yards (7), while averaging more yards after contact per carry (3.31). His 5.9 yards per touch is far ahead of Harris’ mark of 3.6. While I still project Harris to lead this Pittsburgh backfield in touches, Warren could flirt with 10-12 this week, which is enough to keep Harris from RB2 status. A matchup with the Saints isn’t nearly as frightening as it once was, as they have allowed four running back touchdowns over the last four weeks. I’m very interested to see what Warren’s usage looks like after this weekend.

Wide Receiver

It has been a rough stretch for Diontae Johnson as of late, who has failed to reach 50 receiving yards in four of his last five games. His 76 targets without scoring a touchdown are the most in all of football, while he continues to struggle with efficiency. Johnson is currently averaging just 5.03 yards per target, the eighth-lowest mark among qualified wide receivers, while his 8.65 yards per reception is the sixth-lowest mark. The volume has remained strong, however, as Johnson is averaging a strong 9.5 targets per game on the year. A matchup with the Saints is favorable, as Marshon Lattimore remains sidelined, which has led to the Saints allowing three wide receivers to reach the 100-yard mark against them since Week 5. Johnson’s safe volume keeps him in the WR3 range for me and you have to think he finds the end zone eventually, right?

With Chase Claypool traded to Chicago, rookie George Pickens is now the unquestioned WR2 in Pittsburgh, though most had him as the number-two in the first place. When we last saw him play, Pickens failed to catch a pass against the Eagles elite perimeter defense but there is still some upside here, as he ranks sixth in deep targets on the season (16) and faces a Saints pass defense that has allowed five passing touchdowns of 20-plus yards on the year, good for the third-most in the NFL. It’ll be interesting to see if offensive coordinator Matt Canada moves Johnson or Pickens into the slot more with Claypool gone or if the team simply deploys Steven Sims as the full-time slot wideout. Regardless, Pickens is a boom/bust WR3 this weekend.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth is expected to see an increased role with the departure of Claypool, which is exciting considering he was already plenty involved, ranking 10th among tight ends with a 16.5% target share. Freiermuth has seen at least seven targets in all but two of his fully healthy games this season, while his 1.82 yards per route run rank seventh-best among qualified tight ends. 

Saints

Quarterback

Andy Dalton didn’t do a whole lot against a tough Baltimore defense last week, passing for 210 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Dalton has been a bit up-and-down as of late but has likely still done enough to remain New Orleans’ starting signal caller. He faces a weak Pittsburgh secondary that is allowing a 5.7% passing touchdown rate, tied for the worst rate in the league, while also coughing up the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.8). The Steelers are also coughing up nearly 13 yards per completion, the most in football. That is the good news. The bad news? It looks like edge rusher J.J. Watt could return this week, which will boost this pass rush. 

Running Back

After a huge Week 8 outing, Alvin Kamara had a quiet Week 9 game, rushing for just 30 yards on nine carries, while adding three receptions for 32 yards. It was a tough matchup against Baltimore, but Kamara obviously remains a must-start player, especially after logging a season-high 88% of the snaps. Kamara continues to provide tremendous upside as a pass-catcher alongside Dalton, as he’s averaging 7.6 targets, 6.2 receptions and 60 receiving yards per game in five contests with Dalton under center, while averaging just 2.5 receptions, 5.5 targets and 9.5 receiving yards per game without Dalton. The Steelers are right around the middle of the road in terms of fantasy points per game allowed to running backs, but they have allowed a running back to find the end zone against them in every game since Week 2.

Wide Receiver

Continue to start Chris Olave as a borderline top-15 fantasy wide receiver. The rookie is putting together an impressive first year and is the unquestioned WR1 for the Saints, especially with Michael Thomas now out for the season. Olave has provided a tremendous combination of volume and high-upside targets, as his 1,045 air yards rank second among all wide receivers, while also sporting a healthy 24.2% target share. Only Tyreek Hill has seen more deep targets than Olave’s 18, while his 37.7% air yards share is the 10th-highest mark in the league. This is a stellar matchup for Olave, as the Steelers have been destroyed by wide receivers all season long, especially on deep passes. When we last saw Pittsburgh play, they allowed A.J. Brown to catch six passes for 156 yards and three touchdowns, with all three scores coming from at least 25 yards out. The Steelers have now allowed a league-high seven touchdown passes of 20-plus yards this season, while also coughing up the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.8) and the fourth-most air yards (1,315). Pittsburgh did add William Jackson to their secondary, but he hasn’t been all that great this season, allowing 0.39 fantasy points per coverage route. I don’t think his presence turns this struggling secondary around and Olave is an elite play this week.

WRs vs. Pittsburgh in 2022

Tight End

Over the last two weeks, Taysom Hill has played 36% and 33% of the offensive snaps, his two highest snap shares of the season. Unfortunately, he wasn’t utilized very much last week, carrying the ball just once, while completing his only pass. It didn’t help that the Saints ran just 49 plays on offense, but these are the types of games you will get with Hill from time to time. I still think he should remain on the TE1 borderline, especially given how banged up New Orleans’ offense is right now. Meanwhile, Juwan Johnson saved his day with a late 41-yard touchdown that was pretty fluky. He’s still a risky TE2 play.

Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans

Total: 39, TEN -3
Pace: TEN: 30.51 sec/snap (32nd), DEN: 26.9 sec/snap (9th)

What to watch for: Ryan Tannehill has missed the last two games with an ankle injury. 

Titans

Quarterback

Over the last two weeks, the Titans, an already run-first offense, have taken it to another level. With Ryan Tannehill sidelined, the Titans are sporting a whopping 63.4% neutral script rush rate, easily the highest mark in the league during that span. Malik Willis has attempted just 26 passes over the last two games, scoring a total of 9.6 fantasy points. Even if Tannehill is back in the lineup this week, you shouldn’t be too excited about starting any quarterback from this offense right now, especially against a tough Denver defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (9.1), as well as the fewest points (1.35) and yards (24.9) per drive.

Running Back

“Hand Derrick Henry the football and let him go to work.” That is Tennessee’s offensive philosophy right now, which really isn’t all too different from what we’ve seen over the years. After rushing for 115 yards and two scores against the Chiefs last week, Henry has now rushed for 100-plus yards in each of his last five games. During that span, Henry has scored seven touchdowns, while averaging 25.4 fantasy points per game. He has also seen at least 25 carries in three of those five contests and while his usage in the passing game has come down a bit as of late, Henry is still going to see 25 touches most weeks, which is almost his floor. Denver’s defense is good, but they are certainly more vulnerable against the run, as 42.5% of the yardage allowed by the Broncos has come via the run, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, while 50% of the touchdowns against them have come on the ground, the fifth-highest rate. That sounds good to the Titans, who have zero interest in dropping back to pass right now. And over their last three games, Denver has allowed all three lead backs to score against them, including 156 yards and a score to Travis Etienne in London in Week 8.

Wide Receiver

I have zero interest in starting any pass-catchers from the Titans in good matchups, let alone one of the worst matchups in all of fantasy football. Robert Woods has been held under 40 yards in all but one game this season, just failed to record a catch last week and now will run 50% of his routes against Pat Surtain, who is allowing just 0.12 fantasy points per coverage route and a 56% catch rate so far this season. 

Tight End

No thank you.

Broncos

Quarterback

When we last saw the Broncos in Week 8, Russell Wilson got off to a slow start but ultimately finished the game with 252 yards, one touchdown and one interception. There still doesn’t seem to be much of a ceiling here but this is a pretty favorable matchup for Wilson, facing one of the largest pass funnel defenses in all of football. Tennessee has absolutely shut down the run so much that opposing offenses aren’t even trying to run the ball against them. In fact, teams are sporting the lowest run play percentage in all of football against the Titans this season at just 32.8%. Just 24.1% of the yards against Tennessee have come on the ground, the lowest rate in the league. Of course, you can throw on them, as they are allowing 1.9 passing touchdowns per game, the fourth-most in the league. I like the matchup for Denver’s pass-catchers here and Wilson is a strong streamer this week.

Running Back

I’d like to avoid this backfield if I can. For starters, while Melvin Gordon may still be the starter, the Broncos are going to continue to use Latavius Murray, while Chase Edmonds could also fill the Mike Boone role of playing on passing downs. It is difficult enough for running backs to succeed against Tennessee, who are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season (19.8), but to ask to do it in a committee is even more difficult. Gordon logged 56% of the snaps back in Week 8, recording 12 touches for 52 yards and a touchdown. Murray, meanwhile, played 44% of the snaps but out-touched Gordon 15-12, while also finding the end zone. Don’t bank on touchdowns this week, as no team in football has allowed fewer rushing scores than the Titans this year (2). Gordon and Murray are very low-end flex plays for Week 10.

Wide Receiver

This has to be the week Courtland Sutton gets back on track, right?

Sutton has hauled in a total of six passes for 50 scoreless yards over the last three weeks, while Jerry Jeudy has caught 16 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown during that same span. With Sutton primarily playing on the perimeter, a lot of his targets are coming down the sideline and in traffic, as no player in football has seen more contested targets than Sutton (24), though he’s only hauled in nine of those looks. It would be nice to see Denver scheme targets for their top wide receiver but expecting anything logical from this offense right now is a bold move. Sutton still presents upside on a weekly basis given his 10.5 yards before the catch per reception (14th) and 12 deep targets (15th), especially against a Tennessee pass defense that ranks bottom-five in yards per target allowed to opposing wide receivers this season. The Titans are also allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts, as well as the third-most touchdowns per game to the position (1.25). Jeudy, meanwhile, remains a high-end WR3. He is clearly building momentum entering this favorable matchup, facing a Tennessee secondary that just allowed 10 catches for 88 yards to JuJu Smith-Schuster out of the slot a week ago. 

Tight End

Greg Dulcich is quickly emerging as a top-12 fantasy tight end. Since making his season debut in Week 6, the rookie has logged 71%, 59% and 80% of the snaps, seeing 17 targets during that stretch. Through just three games, he already has seen five deep targets, which is good for sixth-most among all tight ends, as Dulcich has shown the ability to stretch the field, averaging nearly 11 yards per target so far. This week, he’ll face a Tennessee defense that is coughing up the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends on the year (67.8). 

Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills

Total: 44, BUF -4
Pace: BUF: 27.6 sec/snap (13th), MIN: 26.63 sec/snap (6th)

What to watch for: Josh Allen is day-to-day with an elbow injury and could miss this game. Jordan Poyer and Matt Milano missed last week’s game for Buffalo but could return this week.

Bills

Quarterback

Deep breaths… Deep breaths…

After suffering an elbow injury last week, Josh Allen is being listed as day-to-day. He is legitimately questionable for Week 10 — if I had to guess, I’d say he sits, but you know he is going to want to play. It appears to be an injury that he can manage and play through but perhaps Buffalo will be smart with their star quarterback. If Allen is active, I am starting him without hesitation. Granted, he’s going through the worst stretch of play since maybe his rookie season right now, but even in a game last week where he failed to throw a touchdown pass and threw two interceptions, he still scored 26 fantasy points behind his 86 rushing yards and two scores. Is it possible Allen won’t be 100% healthy if he plays? Of course. But 75-80% healthy Josh Allen is still better than most players in the league. 

If Allen is unable to play, it’ll be an instant revenge game for Case Keenum, who played pretty poorly during the preseason. He’d be a viable QB2 in superflex leagues, especially if you have to replace Allen and/or have Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson on bye.

Running Back

I still believe that Devin Singletary is a very underrated running back and he did play over 70% of the snaps last week. However, James Cook is starting to get more involved each week, as the rookie has six touches in consecutive weeks, while Nyheim Hines is going to play more than the four offensive snaps we saw a week ago. The good news for Singletary is that he played 80% of the snaps in the two-minute drill and over 60% of the third down snaps on Sunday and still projects as the lead back in Buffalo. This offense would obviously take a massive hit if Allen is out of the lineup but if the Bills can still move the ball with Keenum under center, Singletary could see an uptick in scoring opportunities, as the Bills aren’t going to use Keenum in the run game like Allen, who has handled 77.8% of Buffalo’s rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line this season, the seventh-highest rate in all of football. This isn’t an easy matchup, however, as Minnesota is allowing the fourth-fewest yards before contact per rush in the league at 1.82, while 19% of the runs against them have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage (8th). There are so many moving parts with Singletary right now, as Allen’s presence plays a huge factor, as well as the potential of more snaps from Hines. Consider him a flex play for the time being.

Wide Receiver

Regardless of who is under center for the Bills, you are starting Stefon Diggs. Yes, his upside isn’t as high if he is catching passes from Case Keenum, but this is still one of the best wide receivers in all of football who has seen double-digit targets in five games this season, while reaching the century mark five times, too. I don’t think the volume goes anywhere if Keenum starts because this Buffalo offense is extremely reliant on Diggs right now, which is actually an issue for the offense, but I won’t go down that rabbit hole. His 41 first-read targets are the fourth-most in football and he should remain the focal point of this offense no matter who is under center. The matchup is fine, too, as Minnesota has been a pass funnel. 69.75 of the yards against the Vikings have come through the air, the sixth-highest rate in the league. The Vikings play a ton of zone coverage, which bodes well for Diggs, who ranks third in the league in yards per route run against zone (2.93). And Diggs may or may not have revenge on his mind. If Allen is out, Diggs drops to a lower-end WR1, but a WR1 nonetheless. 

Gabe Davis, however, is a player I’d absolutely bench if Allen is out. He’s already a boom-or-bust player to start with, ranking second among wideouts in yards per target (12.1) and first in yards per reception (25.06) but those splash plays will be far less frequent with Keenum under center and Davis doesn’t operate in the intermediate areas of the field. Minnesota is coughing up an aDOT of 8.5 yards, the seventh-highest mark in football, so there is an opportunity for Davis here, but if Allen doesn’t play, he is far less likely to connect on a splash play. He remains a boom-or-bust WR3.

Tight End

Dawson Knox hasn’t eclipsed 40 receiving yards in a game this season and if he doesn’t find the end zone, you are looking at 5-7 fantasy points. 

Vikings

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins only completed 55% of his passes last week, his lowest mark of the year, but still finished with 265 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s now scored multiple touchdowns in each of his last three games, all in positive matchups against Washington, Arizona and Miami. Now he heads to Buffalo to face a Bills secondary that is coughing up the league’s fourth-lowest passing touchdown rate (3.1%), as well as the third-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.3). The matchup isn’t quite as daunting if Matt Milano and Jordan Poyer remain sidelined, but Cousins is best viewed as a high-end QB2 here.

Running Back

Against a strong Washington run defense last week, Dalvin Cook didn’t get much going on the ground, rushing for just 47 yards on 17 carries, but salvaged his day with an impressive 12-yard touchdown grab in the corner of the end zone. It was Cook’s fourth consecutive game with a touchdown and over the last three games, Alexander Mattison hasn’t been taking as many snaps from Cook, who has logged 87%, 76% and 86% of the offensive snaps during that span. He’s handled at least 83% of Minnesota’s running back touches in that stretch and faces a Buffalo run defense that has struggled over the last two weeks, allowing the Jets and Packers to run all over them. Because Buffalo deploys so much nickel defense, opposing running games often have mismatches, which does make this defense vulnerable to the run at times. Cook is clearly a top-seven fantasy running back.

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson caught four passes for 48 yards and a touchdown on Minnesota’s opening drive last week. He ultimately finished the game with seven receptions for 115 yards and a score, his first touchdown grab since Week 1. Jefferson has now reached the 100-yard mark in four of his last five games and in the one game he didn’t quite get there, he still finished with 98 yards. He ranks sixth among wideouts in target share (31%) and fourth in air yards share (41.7%) and while this matchup doesn’t look great on paper, there is simply no one in Buffalo’s secondary that can cover Jefferson, especially with Tre’Davious White still sidelined. Garrett Wilson just had a strong game against the Bills with eight catches for 92 yards. You are obviously starting Jefferson.

Adam Thielen has not found the end zone in each of the last two games but has still posted 67 yards in both contests. It was his seventh straight game with at least seven targets, but the addition of tight end T.J. Hockenson could certainly lead to less consistent targets going forward, which wouldn’t be good for someone who has been more touchdown dependent over the last year or so. 

Tight End

I’ll admit I was expecting some limitations for Hockenson in his first game with the Vikings. However, that was not at all the case, as Hockenson logged over 90% of the snaps, caught nine passes for 70 yards and ran a route on 86% of dropbacks. Hockenson settles in as a mid-range TE1, though this matchup is tough. Buffalo has yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end this season and if Matt Milano is back, the odds of that happening certainly decline. 

Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders

Total: 42.5, LV -6
Pace: LV: 27.67 sec/snap (15th), IND: 26.9 sec/snap (8th)

What to watch for: Jonathan Taylor missed last week’s game with an ankle injury. For the Raiders, Darren Waller hasn’t played with a hamstring injury since Week 5.

Raiders

Quarterback

Derek Carr completed 21-of-36 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns last week but it should have been a huge game, as the Raiders offense disappeared in the second half of the game. Carr completed just five passes for 36 yards in the second half against Jacksonville and now gets a middling matchup with the Colts, who are allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (14.7), as they continue to deploy a zone-heavy defense. According to Player Profiler, Carr is 24th in completion percentage against zone coverage this season (65.6%) and 20th in passer rating (92.2). He remains a QB2 with a limited ceiling given the inconsistencies with this Raiders offense right now.

Running Back

After an insane stretch in Weeks 4-7, Josh Jacobs has slowed down over the last two weeks, totaling 110 rushing yards and zero touchdowns on 27 carries. Las Vegas’ issues on offense have had a massive impact on Jacobs’ underwhelming numbers as of late, while the Raiders are starting to use Ameer Abdullah a lot more on third downs over the past few weeks. Jacobs’ 83% opportunity share is still the second-highest mark in the league and the volume is unlikely to go anywhere anytime soon, keeping him in the low-end RB1 discussion. It isn’t easy to run on the Colts, who are allowing just 1.83 yards before contact per rush this season, the fifth-best rate in the league, while just 8.5% of the runs against Indianapolis have gained 10 or more yards, the third-lowest rate in football. 

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams is coming off a huge game, hauling in 10-of-17 targets for 146 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Of course, with Carr struggling in the second half, so did Adams, who caught one pass for zero yards in the final two quarters. Adams posted a whopping 47% target share Sunday, giving him a 31.2% target share on the season, the fifth-highest rate in the league. His nine end zone targets are tied for the fourth-most in the league, as he remains the focal point of this Las Vegas passing attack. He’ll remain a WR1 ahead of a matchup with a Colts defense that has only allowed one wide receiver (Terry McLaurin) to reach 100 yards against them this season. Defensive back Stephon Gilmore has only shadowed three times this season; Week 1 against Brandin Cooks, Week 5 against Courtland Sutton and Week 8 against McLaurin. We’ll see if he follows Adams, but it is unlikely to be exclusively considering the Colts play so much zone defense.

Hunter Renfrow shouldn’t really be started in most leagues if you can help it. Even with Darren Waller sidelined, it hasn’t led to much production from Renfrow, who has caught four passes for 32 scoreless yards over the last two weeks. 

Tight End

We’ll see if Darren Waller can return to the lineup, but if he doesn’t, I have zero issue going back to Foster Moreau as a streaming candidate. Yes, he’s only caught 11 passes for 101 yards and zero scores over the last three weeks with Waller sidelined, however, the opportunity is all I care about. During that span, Moreau has logged 96%, 100% and 97% of the offensive snaps, while running a route on 86% of dropbacks. Moreau’s 94 routes run over the last three weeks are the fourth-most among all tight ends and if the Raiders offense hasn’t been putrid for most of that stretch, he’d be posting better numbers. 

Colts

Quarterback

The Colts offense was absolutely pathetic last week, and it resulted in the team making a handful of personnel changes. I understand they were missing Jonathan Taylor and starting an unproven quarterback, but the Colts averaged an ugly 2.0 yards per play last week. Sam Ehlinger simply hasn’t been getting it done and while this is one of the best matchups you can draw up for a quarterback, it is obviously incredibly difficult to feel comfortable starting him in any format. 

Running Back

We’ll see if Jonathan Taylor can return to the lineup this week, as he aggravated his ankle in Week 8 and ultimately sat out last week. Things are spiraling out of control for this year’s consensus 1.01 in fantasy, as he’s dealt with injury and an awful Indianapolis offense but if he’s active, he’s still a low-end RB1. Nyheim Hines is in Buffalo, giving Taylor more upside in the passing game, while Deon Jackson hasn’t practiced to start the week. Hopefully the Colts can move the ball this week because they play a weak Raiders defense that specifically struggles in the red zone, allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 74.1% of trips this season, the second-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, only the Lions are allowing more points per drive than the Raiders this season (2.47), while opponents are scoring points on 41.8% of drives against Las Vegas, the fifth-worst rate in the league. 

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1, while failing to reach 60 yards in each of his last three games. The offense is struggling right now, and it is really limiting Pittman’s upside. He only has one target 20 yards or more down the field this season, though he does draw a solid matchup this week, facing Anthony Averett, who is allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season, as well as an 86% catch rate. However, given the state of this offense right now, Pittman should be considered a high-end WR3/low-end WR2.

Parris Campbell has one of the best matchups in all of fantasy football but it is tough to trust him, too. Sure, six teams are on bye and there are plenty of injuries but after seeing 12 and 11 targets in Matt Ryan’s last two starts, Campbell has only been targeted seven total times in two games alongside Ehlinger. It’s a shame, too, because slot receivers have absolutely destroyed the Raiders over the course of the season, and it continued last week with Christian Kirk posting nearly 80 yards and a touchdown. Finally, Alec Pierce continues to show flashes, as he’s recorded a catch of 20-plus yards in each of his last four games, but the Colts just aren’t throwing as much as they were with Ryan under center. Pierce also ranks fourth in the league in FTN Fantasy’s created receptions stat (17), which are receptions that require tremendous hands, body control, footwork, etc. He and Pierce are extremely risky WR4 plays but the matchup is definitely favorable.

Slot WRs vs. Raiders in 2022

Tight End

The Colts continue to use three tight ends in a bad offense. Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson and Jelani Woods should not be on your radar going forward.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers

Total: 43, DAL -5
Pace: GB: 29.1 sec/snap (26th), DAL: 27.8 sec/snap (20th)

What to watch for: Ezekiel Elliott is still dealing with an MCL sprain and is questionable to play. Aaron Jones left last week’s game with an ankle injury but is expected to play for the Packers.

Packers

Quarterback

If Aaron Rodgers couldn’t get it done against the Lions…

Sunday was yet another ugly performance from Green Bay, who dropped their fifth straight game, scoring just nine points against the worst defense in the league. Rodgers finished the day completing just 53.5% of his passes for 291 yards and three interceptions, two of which came inside the red zone, while the third came just outside of the 20-yard line. He now ranks just 20th among all signal callers in fantasy points per dropback on the year (0.41) and has to face a tough Dallas defense that is sporting the league’s highest pressure rate at 30.5%. The Cowboys are allowing a passing touchdown rate of just 3.1%, tied for the fourth-lowest mark in the league, while also allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (12.5). And to make matters worse, his pass-catchers are once again banged up, as Romeo Doubs will miss the next 4-6 weeks with an ankle sprain, while Christian Watson has been dealing with multiple injuries. If you streamed Rodgers last week, feel free to send him back to the waiver wire.

Running Back

Aaron Jones was building plenty of momentum entering last week’s game, as his snaps, touches and work in the passing game were all climbing. However, Green Bay went back to forgetting that he is their best player last week, as Jones touched the ball just 11 times before exiting the game in the middle of the third quarter with an ankle injury. There was one comical red zone trip where Green Bay had the ball 1st and goal from inside the five. They proceeded to give AJ Dillon multiple tries at scoring, only for him to fail. And then on fourth down, Rodgers attempted a quick slant, but the pass hit a Detroit defender in the face, leading to an interception. As long as Jones suits up this week, he’ll be a mid-range RB2 against a good Cowboys defense, but hopefully he returns to seeing 5-7 targets out of the backfield.

If for whatever reason Jones can’t play, Dillon would become a viable RB2. He has not been very efficient this season, averaging just 4.3 yards per touch, while his seven runs of 10-plus yards rank 33rd in the league. However, Green Bay continues to give him most of the short-yardage work, as Dillon has handled 80% of the team’s carries from inside the 5-yard line this season, the sixth-highest rate in the league. Dillon would see 20-plus touches if Jones’ ankle injury keeps him sidelined, which is all you can ask for, especially at this point of the season.

Wide Receiver

Despite how bad this Green Bay team has been, I’m not sure we’re talking enough about how solid Allen Lazard has been. After catching four passes for 87 yards and a touchdown Sunday, Lazard now has 50-plus yards or a touchdown in every game so far this season. And in his worst game of the season (6-55-0), Lazard only played 59% of the snaps, as he left early with a shoulder injury. He is consistently seeing at least 20% of the team’s targets and is making plays down the field, averaging 2.9 air yards per route run, which ranks 10th among all wide receivers with at least 30 targets this season. There is nothing special about this matchup with the Cowboys, but Lazard has solidified himself as a low-end WR2 until further notice.

Tight End

Robert Tonyan falls into a group of touchdown-or-bust tight ends in fantasy and he’s only scored one time all year long. This isn’t the greatest matchup to chase touchdowns, as the Cowboys have allowed just one tight end touchdown on the year, while also coughing up the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to the position (39.9). Tonyan remains a low-floor TE2.

Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott has played in two games since returning from injury, attempting 25 and 27 passes. Prescott was great in Week 8 against the Bears, scoring over 26 fantasy points, but Dallas’ defense and rushing attack could limit his fantasy ceiling. It was good to see him run last game, rushing for 34 yards and a touchdown, while Prescott has simply played really well as of late. This isn’t the easiest of matchups, as Green Bay’s pass defense has been pretty good, surrendering the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing passers (12.4), while just 55.1% of the yardage allowed by this defense have come through the air, the second-lowest rate in football. Only one quarterback has finished inside the top-12 against them this season, while they held Josh Allen to his worst game of the season, scoring around 17 fantasy points. It would be nice if Green Bay could push Dallas to score in this game, though that seems unlikely. Prescott is still a back-end QB1 and not someone I am looking to bench for a streaming candidate. 

Running Back

The entire fantasy football community got what they have been waiting for in Week 8 — a Tony Pollard start. With Ezekiel Elliott sidelined with an MCL sprain, Pollard drew the start against the Bears and dominated, rushing for 131 yards and three touchdowns on 14 carries. He still wasn’t an every-down back or anything, logging 53% of the snaps but given how efficient of a player he is, 15 touches and 50-60% of the snaps is more than enough. Elliott could return this week but even if he does, Pollard is a high-end flex play considering he was already starting to get more and more work before Elliott’s injury. And, of course, if Elliott sits, Pollard is a must-start running back. Pollard has started two games for the Cowboys since entering the league in 2019. In those games, he is averaging 16.5 touches, 139.5 total yards and 32 fantasy points per game. Green Bay has a vulnerable run defense, especially without Rashan Gary, who is out for the year with a torn ACL. Just 13% of the runs against the Packers have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, the fourth-lowest rate in the league, while 13% of the runs have gained 10 or more yards (10th). That bodes well for Pollard, who leads the league in rushing touchdowns of 15-plus yards (3), while 54% of his total rushing yards have come off explosive runs, the highest rate in the league among running backs with at least 30 attempts. 

If Elliott is active, he is a touchdown dependent flex. He’d normally be a back-end RB2, but I worry about his usage, especially since he is already offering nothing in the passing game, hauling in 6-of-8 targets for 32 yards on the year. 

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb hasn’t reached double-digit targets in a game since Week 6 but has reached 70 yards in both contests since Prescott has been back, while finding the end zone in Week 8. Lamb still ranks second among all qualified wideouts in targets per route run (31%), while also ranking top-five in both target share (31.6%) and air yards share (40.1%). Lamb is still a low-end WR1 and if Dallas starts throwing the ball more or are pushed to do so, he could have some absolutely huge games. Michael Gallup, meanwhile, is tough to start given the lack of volume in this offense, especially with Lamb dominating the usage.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz is healthy. Dak Prescott is healthy. This combination means that Schultz is back to being a top-10 fantasy tight end. In three games alongside Prescott this season, Schultz is averaging six receptions, seven targets and 62 receiving yards per game, finishing as the TE6, TE12 and TE5 in fantasy during those weeks. His 22.8% target share alongside Prescott towers over his target share with Cooper Rush under center (9.4%). This week’s matchup against Green Bay isn’t the easiest but they did just allow both Detroit backup tight ends to find the end zone against them last week and with Schultz healthy and in this role alongside Prescott, he is essentially a must-start tight end anyway.

Dalton Schultz with Dak Prescott in 2022

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

Total: 41.5, LAR -1.5
Pace: LAR: 30.3 sec/snap (30th), ARI: 25.7 sec/snap (2nd)

What to watch for: Matthew Stafford has been placed in the concussion protocol.

Rams

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford is reportedly in the concussion protocol — if he can’t get cleared in time for Sunday, it’ll be John Wolford under center for the Rams. Stafford posted his seventh game with one or fewer touchdown passes Sunday, while also only passing for 165 yards against Tampa Bay. If he is good to go this week, he’s an intriguing QB2 in a friendly matchup and although he failed to score a touchdown against this Arizona defense back in Week 3, he was insanely unlucky. Allen Robinson dropped a walk-in touchdown pass from five yards out, while Cooper Kupp dropped a 30-yard touchdown pass in the corner of the end zone. The Cardinals are allowing opposing offenses to score points on 44.3% of drives so far this season, the second-worst rate in the league, while also coughing up the third-most points per drive on the year (2.44). Despite Stafford seeing a ton of pressure this season, he’s actually fared pretty well against the blitz, ranking fourth in completion rate (70.8%) and sixth in yards per pass attempt (8.2). That is notable considering Vance Joseph and his blitz-heavy defense come to town, as the Cardinals are blitzing 37% of the time this season, the second-highest rate in football. Keep tabs on Stafford’s status throughout the week.

Running Back

I don’t know. I really don’t. The Los Angeles backfield continues to provide zero answers. After being away from the team and part of trade discussions, Cam Akers was active last week, logging 19% of the snaps. Darrell Henderson was the “lead back,” logging 49% of the snaps and handling 12 carries for 56 yards. Malcolm Brown also played 28% of the snaps and touched the ball three times. I’ll have Henderson ranked the highest entering Week 10, but I’d be lying if I told you I had any sort of confidence in anyone from this backfield, even against an Arizona run defense that has allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their last two games.

Wide Receiver

In a game where Stafford threw for just 165 yards, Cooper Kupp still managed to catch eight passes for 127 yards and a touchdown. He accounted for nearly 80% of the Rams passing yards and 35% of the targets. If Stafford is unable to play, Kupp definitely doesn’t project as well, though he’d still be a no-doubt top-five fantasy wide receiver. Kupp posted just four catches for 44 yards against Arizona earlier this season, as they have done a tremendous job of limiting opposing top wideouts. He was also shadowed by Byron Murphy on 54% of his routes. Of course, you are still starting Kupp but Murphy has been good this season, holding Kupp, Davante Adams, DK Metcalf (twice) and Justin Jefferson to a combined 10 receptions for 92 yards and one touchdown in shadow coverage. Perhaps this isn’t a week to spend up for Kupp in DFS.

Allen Robinson still ranks third in all of football with 10 end zone targets this season, though he’s only scored twice and has yet to reach 70 yards in a game this season. The Cardinals are allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 67.6% of red zone trips this season, the sixth-worst rate in football, so that certainly helps. However, he remains a WR4 that needs a touchdown to provide any sort of value.

Tight End

Yikes. Once an elite fantasy tight end in terms of volume and usage, Tyler Higbee has now caught just three passes for 22 yards over his last three games. He was held without a catch last week and continues to play less than 80% of the snaps after logging 90-plus percent of the snaps in each of the first five weeks of the season. Over his last three games, Higbee ranks just 23rd among all tight ends in routes run with 54, while ranking fifth at the position in blocking snaps during that span. I really wish he could return to his early-season usage, as this is a dream matchup, facing an Arizona defense that is allowing the most fantasy points (20.0), receptions (7.3) and second-most receiving yards per game (77.1) to opposing tight ends this season. Noah Fant just recorded 96 yards against them in a limited role but that mostly came after the catch, something Higbee isn’t providing right now. The matchup is elite but there is a lot of risk with Higbee right now.

Cardinals

Quarterback

Again, I advise you not to watch the Cardinals if Kyler Murray is on your fantasy team. It always starts off slow and Murray ultimately gets there, which was the case last week, as Murray finished with 175 yards and two scores, while adding 60 rushing yards. Murray has rushed for at least 25 yards in all but one game this season and remains a back-end QB1 ahead of a divisional matchup with the Rams, who are coughing up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (13.8). They are also allowing just 10.5 rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers, the second fewest in football. 

Thursday update: Kyler Murray is dealing with a hamstring injury that isn’t considered serious but also isn’t nothing. If he can’t play, it would be a downgrade for DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz.

Running Back

After missing a handful of games with a rib injury, James Conner returned last week, rushing for 45 yards on seven carries, while adding five receptions for 19 yards. He out-touched Eno Benjamin 12-5, while logging 71% of the snaps to Benjamin’s 27%. Conner is now back on the RB2 radar, though this is a tough spot, facing a Rams defense that is allowing the seventh-fewest yards before contact per rush attempt this season (1.94). Hopefully the volume continues to climb for Conner in his second game back because I don’t expect him to be overly efficient in this spot. 

Wide Receiver

It wasn’t a huge game, but DeAndre Hopkins found the end zone for the second consecutive game, giving him 100 yards or a touchdown in all three games since making his debut in Week 7. The five targets were definitely underwhelming but Seattle has done a good job against perimeter wide receivers. Hopkins is still sporting a healthy 25% target share so far this season and remains a back-end WR1 ahead of a matchup with Jalen Ramsey and the Rams. Hopkins is still lining up on the left side of the formation about 67% of the time, making it easier for Ramsey to follow him here, if that is what the Rams elect to do.

Rondale Moore continues to produce, coming off a solid game. Moore hauled in eight of a team-high 10 targets for 69 yards Sunday, giving him 18 targets over the last two games. With Robbie Anderson operating as the clear WR3 and Greg Dortch only logging five offensive snaps, it allowed Moore to play in the slot 73.2% of the time, his highest rate in a game since Week 6. He has seen eight or more targets in four of his last five games and is gaining steam as a reliable WR3 in this offense, while he’s also seeing more targets from 0-9 yards down the field, as opposed to strictly being targeted at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Tight End

Zach Ertz scored a touchdown for the second consecutive game, while also seeing eight targets, three more than Hopkins. That is unlikely to continue but Ertz has been a reliable red zone target for Murray all year long, as the veteran tight end ranks 15th in all of football with 17 red zone targets (third among tight ends). In games where Hopkins gets back to seeing 120-plus targets, Ertz is going to fall back to four or five looks but he is still a top-10 tight end the rest of the way.

Los Angeles Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers

Total: 45.5, SF -7
Pace: SF: 30.03 sec/snap (29th), LAC: 25.8 sec/snap (3rd)

What to watch for: Keenan Allen (hamstring) remains day-to-day for the Chargers.

49ers

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo is probably my top streaming quarterback for Week 10. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of his last four games, and since Week 5, Garoppolo is quietly the QB11 in fantasy points per game (18.0). Garoppolo faces a struggling Chargers defense that is coughing up the fifth-most points per drive (2.26), while teams are scoring points on 42% of drives against Los Angeles, the fourth-highest rate in the league. The Chargers are also allowing the fourth-most yards per completion (14.3), second-most yards per attempt (9.5) and fifth-highest aDOT (9.9 yards) off play-action this season, which bodes well for Garoppolo in this San Francisco offense. 

Running Back

When we last saw Christian McCaffrey play, all he did was post a hat trick, with a rushing, receiving and passing touchdown against the Rams. He also touched the ball 26 times, including eight receptions on nine targets. McCaffrey logged 81% of the snaps and while he won’t throw for a touchdown again, he should have a second consecutive great game, facing an awful Chargers run defense that just allowed two rushing scores to Cordarrelle Patterson last week and 90 yards on 10 carries to Tyler Allgeier. Los Angeles is coughing up the most yards before contact per rush attempt (3.16), as well as the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (30.1). McCaffrey’s ceiling is much higher than it was with Carolina, which is a frightening thought.

RBs vs. Chargers since Week 4

Wide Receiver

Deebo Samuel (hamstring) sat out prior to San Francisco’s Week 8 bye but he is practicing in full and will be back out there on Sunday. We haven’t fully seen Samuel and McCaffrey together yet, as McCaffrey’s snaps were limited in his debut back in Week 7. Samuel’s rushing production has come down a bit this season, which is what we want for fantasy because targets are more valuable. Samuel has seen at least seven targets in all but one game so far this season, while once again leading all wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception (9.0). As long as he is back in the lineup this week, Samuel will be a high-end WR2 for fantasy. Brandon Aiyuk, meanwhile, has now reached the 80-yard mark in each of his last three games, while finding the end zone three times during that span. He is quietly on pace for a career-best season and even with Samuel back, Aiyuk remains a rock solid WR3.

Tight End

George Kittle has now found the end zone in each of his last two games and over his last five outings, the All-Pro tight end is averaging nearly six receptions and 67 receiving yards per game. There is nothing wrong with this matchup, as the Chargers are allowing the seventh-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (59.9). Kittle is the TE4 for me each week behind Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert.

Chargers

Quarterback

Justin Herbert is still a really, really good quarterback but he can’t be considered a QB1 right now. This passing game is already limited due to the fact that Herbert isn’t attacking vertically, and it is even more limited without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who are both most likely out again this weekend. Herbert could only manage 245 passing yards and one touchdown against the lowly Atlanta defense last week, averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt, He’s now been under 6.0 yards per attempt in each of his last three games and has to face an elite San Francisco defense that is sporting the league’s fifth-highest pressure rate (25.5%). They are also allowing just a 3.1% passing touchdown rate, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. I’d look to avoid Herbert if possible this week.

QBs I’d start over Herbert this week: Trevor Lawrence, Jimmy Garoppolo

Running Back

Austin Ekeler now has 10 touchdowns on the season, but believe it or not, he saw his first carry from inside the 5-yard line all year last week, which he converted into a score. He’s now scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five games and although this is a brutal matchup, Ekeler is going to continue to dominate touches, especially in the passing game. Ekeler now has 60 receptions and 70 targets on the season, third and 13^th, respectively, in all of football. His 60 receptions aren’t third among running backs but among all players in the league. Over the last three weeks, Ekeler has hauled in an insane 29 passes. He may not find much success against a 49ers front that is allowing just 6.4% of runs against them to gain 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in football. But he could legitimately catch 10-12 passes, especially with Allen and Williams sidelined.

Wide Receiver

With Allen and Williams sidelined last week, Joshua Palmer operated as the clear WR1 for the Chargers. He caught eight passes for a career-high 106 yards against the Falcons, while seeing just over 23% of the targets. This is obviously a much more difficult matchup than last week, but Palmer should see 7-10 targets for the time being, which puts him in the WR3 discussion.

Tight End

Gerald Everett was targeted eight times last week, hauling in five passes for 36 yards. He’s now seen at least seven targets in each of the last three games, while also catching five passes in all three contests during that span. Despite the underwhelming yardage, Everett is still a borderline must-start tight end for as long as Allen and/or Williams are out of the lineup.

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 44, PHI -11
Pace: PHI: 27.72 sec/snap (18th), WAS: 28.3 sec/snap (24th)

What to watch for: J.D. McKissic missed last week’s game with a neck injury and could miss a few more. 

Eagles

Quarterback

Can someone please push this Philadelphia offense to score points in the second half of games? Because if it finally happens, Jalen Hurts could legitimately score 40 fantasy points, especially in this matchup. 76.1% of the touchdowns scored against Washington this season have come through the air, the third-highest rate in the league. Hurts has crushed Washington as of late, averaging 1.3 passing touchdowns, 283.3 passing yards, 34 rushing yards and 23.4 fantasy points per game in his last three meetings with his division rival. He threw for a season-high 340 yards and three touchdowns against this Washington defense back in Week 3 of this season and has finished as a top-15 quarterback in every game this season. 

Running Back

I was told Miles Sanders can’t score touchdowns. After finding the end zone in consecutive games, Sanders has now scored six touchdowns this season, as he remains one of the more efficient running backs in the NFL. It is a good thing he’s been so efficient, too, as Sanders has not been a factor in the passing game. Still, Sanders is fourth in runs of 10 or more yards (21), while his 3.2 yards before contact per attempt ranks sixth among all running backs. And per FTN Fantasy, Sanders leads all running backs in rushes in which he has not been contacted by a defender with 24 so even in a matchup against a tough Washington defense that has been good against the run this season. And while Hurts is always a candidate to score touchdowns from in close, Sanders is still sixth in the league in carries from inside the five-yard line (8). Averaging a healthy 17.7 touches per game on the year, Sanders can continue to be deployed as a solid RB2.

Wide Receiver

After scoring just one touchdown through the first five weeks of the year, A.J. Brown has now exploded for four touchdowns over the last two weeks. Brown has now handled a whopping 44.5% of Philadelphia’s air yards this season, the second-highest rate in the league, while his 30.7% target share also ranks top-seven among wide receivers. He also ranks seventh among wideouts with at least 30 targets in air yards per route run (3.0) and now faces a Washington secondary that is allowing the second-most yards on deep passes (602), as well as the seventh-most passing scores of 20 or more yards (3). 

With Brown dominating as of late, DeVonta Smith has been quiet, hauling in just seven passes for 55 yards over the last two weeks. There is still a ceiling to be had here as a WR3, especially against a Washington secondary that he torched to the tune of eight catches, 169 yards and a touchdown back in Week 3. Smith will see coverage from Kendall Fuller, who is allowing 0.26 fantasy points per coverage route this season, while also allowing the fourth-most receiving yards in coverage (451). He is also coughing up 16.1 yards per reception (7th-most), making this a potential get-right spot for Smith.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert remains the TE3 for me each and every week. He was fantastic last Thursday, catching eight passes for 100 yards and a touchdown, his first since Week 3 against (you guessed it) the Washington Commanders. Goedert presents a yardage floor that we just don’t see from many tight ends, as he’s had at least 60 receiving yards in all but two games this season. All of his underlying metrics are fantastic, as Goedert ranks second among tight ends in yards per route run (2.12), first in yards per target (10.6) and second in yards per reception (13.0). Meanwhile, no tight end is averaging more yards after the catch per reception than Goedert (8.7). 

Commanders

Quarterback

Taylor Heinicke has been fine for fantasy over the last three weeks, averaging a respectable 17.7 fantasy points per game. A road meeting with the Eagles is pretty scary, however, as Philadelphia is allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt this season (5.5), as well as the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (10.6). Washington has been utilizing a ton of play-action since Heinicke has taken over at quarterback, as 36.4% of his dropbacks have come off the play type, the sixth-highest rate in the league. However, opposing offenses are using play-action just 14% of the time against the Eagles, the fourth-lowest rate in football. It is very possible that Heinicke’s strong stretch of play ends this weekend.

Running Back

With J.D. McKissic sidelined last week, Antonio Gibson operated as the clear pass-catching running back for the Commanders. Gibson logged 58% of the snaps, his highest snap share in a game since Week 1, while he played every single snap in both the two-minute drill and on third downs. He ultimately finished the game with 13 touches for just 47 yards but if he continues to see the work in the passing game, he could post low-end RB2 numbers. Targets tend to funnel to running backs and tight ends in the middle of the field against this Philadelphia defense because of how good this perimeter defense is and as 11-point underdogs, Gibson could play a lot more snaps than Brian Robinson, who played 63% of the early-down snaps last week. It is also worth pointing out that the Eagles run defense has been vulnerable as of late, just allowing 139 rushing yards to Dameon Pierce. Missing Jordan Davis in the middle of that defense has made an impact, as their run defense has been significantly worse when he’s off the field. Gibson is a low-end RB2 in PPR formats, while Robinson is a low-ceiling flex play.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin has seen at least eight targets in each of the three games alongside Heinicke, leading the Commanders in targets in all three games, something he didn’t do once with Carson Wentz under center. McLaurin has a really tough matchup this week, facing a Philadelphia pass defense that has shut down opposing perimeter wide receivers. It’ll be interesting to see if Darius Slay shadows McLaurin again, which he did on 63% of his routes back in Week 3. And during the 2021 campaign, Slay shadowed McLaurin on 76% and 77% of his routes, holding him to a grand total of five receptions for 78 yards and zero touchdowns on nine targets over the last two years. McLaurin is a low-end WR2 for me in this tough NFC East matchup, while Curtis Samuel is a low-ceiling WR3 play. The slot is the area you want to target against this Eagles secondary and while his 49-yard touchdown from last week was incredibly fluky, Samuel caught 7-of-10 targets against the Eagles earlier in the year, while he’s seen 10 rushing attempts over the last three weeks.

Tight End

Logan Thomas has been back in the lineup for two games and despite playing 72% of the snaps last week, the veteran tight end failed to catch a single pass for the second consecutive week. Opposing tight ends are averaging a healthy 7.6 targets per game against the Eagles this season (seventh most), so there will be opportunities here, but Thomas probably shouldn’t be relied on for fantasy purposes right now.