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Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 9

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Welcome to the Halloween edition of my fantasy football start and sit column. Whether you’re spooked by Jordan Love’s groin injury, curious if Jonathon Brooks will raise from the dead, or scared of the Frankenstein’s monster that is Taysom Hill, this column can help with all of your fantasy decisions. With its leaning on my comprehensive weekly fantasy projections that rank players and provide discrete values, you can set your lineups with confidence no matter your format or depth of fantasy league. Read on to see which fantasy players will trick or treat in fantasy in Week 9.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 9

Quarterbacks

5. Joe Burrow, CIN vs. LV: 34.7-263-1.80-0.49 and 2.3-10-0.10 = 18.4
6. Joe Flacco, IND at MIN: 40.3-279-2.06-0.89 and 1.3-4-0.03 = 18.2
7. Jared Goff, DET at GB: 31.1-263-1.85-0.59 and 1.5-2-0.04 = 17.1
8. Kyler Murray, ARZ vs. CHI: 30.4-214-1.28-0.49 and 4.4-37-0.11 = 17.0

9. Jordan Love, GB vs. DET

32.8-249-1.97-1.05 and 1.4-5-0.05 = 16.6

CINCINNATI, OH - AUGUST 11: Green Bay Packers Quarterback Jordan Love (10) warms up for the NFL pre-season football game between the Green Bay Packers and the Cincinnati Bengals on August 11, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)
CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 11: Green Bay Packers Quarterback Jordan Love (10) warms up for the NFL pre-season football game between the Green Bay Packers and the Cincinnati Bengals on August 11, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)

Love has locked up his routine QB1 value with a position-leading 37 passing touchdowns since the start of 2023. But the relatively new Packers starter is dealing with a groin injury. Make sure he’s playing before you put him in your fantasy lineups this weekend.

10. Kirk Cousins, ATL vs. DAL

35.3-274-1.66-0.85 and 1.4-1-0.06 = 16.4

Cousins has racked up a ridiculous 785 yards and eight touchdowns in two starts against the Bucs this season. Maybe he’s taken to his new NFC South rooting interests? But I think it’s more likely that Cousins will produce at the average between his Bucs outbursts and his more modest performances in his other six starts this season, and that’s plenty good for QB1 value.

11. Sam Darnold, MIN vs. IND

28.8-241-1.64-0.75 and 3.5-14-0.04 = 16.4

Sam Darnold has still failed to throw 32 or more passes in a game this season. And after seven starts, I have to think that’s more feature than bug. I’m projecting the former journeyman for 28.8 pass attempts that are second fewest among Week 9 starters. His tremendous efficiencies make him a QB1. But he’s closer to QB2 status than you might expect with his standout first-half numbers.

12. Matthew Stafford, LA at SEA

35.4-271-1.63-0.74 and 1.3-1-0.03 = 16.2

Stafford may not look like a QB1 candidate based on his full-season numbers. But the veteran passer has produced dramatic splits, averaging 2.00 passing touchdowns and 17.7 fantasy points per game with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua playing versus 0.56 passing touchdowns and 11.6 fantasy points per game with at least one of Kupp or Nacua out since the start of 2023. With his top receivers healthy in Week 9, you can return Stafford to your fantasy lineups.

13. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at BUF

33.6-261-1.58-0.84 and 2.1-8-0.05 = 16.2

If you are concerned that Tagovailoa’s speedy 2.0-second average time to throw from his return in Week 8 is some indication that the Dolphins are coaching him to avoid hits to a fantasy-damaging extreme, you don’t need to be. Tagovailoa led the position with a 2.2-second average time to throw in 2023. Injuries aside, you can trust him to bounce back from a slow fantasy start.

14. Trevor Lawrence, JAX at PHI

32.8-247-1.44-0.66 and 2.2-12-0.11 = 16.2

CINCINNATI, OH - SEPTEMBER 30: Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) warms up before the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 30, 2021, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 30: Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) warms up before the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 30, 2021, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

I think everyone has written the Jaguars and head coach Doug Pederson off after the team’s 2-6 start. But don’t assume the same with their quarterback Lawrence in fantasy. The former No. 1 pick has recovered from a quiet September to average 2.0 total touchdowns over his last five starts. And leading the position with 30 end zone targets, Lawrence is likely to continue to rack up touchdowns.

15. Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. TB

34.5-253-1.52-1.00 and 3.5-14-0.09 = 16.1

Mahomes likely owes a lot of the blame for his slow fantasy start to 2024 to bad touchdown luck. He’s throwing a similar total of red zone pass attempts per game this year as he did in 2020 when he racked up 38 passing touchdowns. But Mahomes still likely owes some of his decline to his lesser weapons. And until DeAndre Hopkins is up to full speed, that makes the league’s best passer a surprising QB2 in fantasy.

16. Geno Smith, SEA vs. LA

36.3-259-1.23-0.80 and 2.8-17-0.12 = 16.1

Smith made his fantasy bones in the first third of the season on his position-leading 41.8 pass attempts per game. But his regression to 28 and 29 passes the last two weeks suggests that former high total was more a result of some wonky early-season game scripts than of new OC Ryan Grubb’s pace-pushing. I’m projecting Smith for 36.2 pass attempts in Week 9 that’s third highest but not the positive outlier that it was a few weeks ago. And that drops him to high-end QB2 value.

17. Justin Herbert, LAC at CLV: 33.2-240-1.46-0.40 and 2.7-9-0.06 = 15.9
18. C.J. Stroud, HST at NYJ: 33.8-247-1.35-0.47 and 2.3-8-0.10 = 15.8
19. Baker Mayfield, TB at KC: 34.3-229-1.48-0.93 and 3.0-18-0.13 = 15.7
20. Dak Prescott, DAL at ATL: 36.7-258-1.54-0.95 and 1.6-6-0.08 = 15.7
21. Bo Nix, DEN at BLT: 32.8-192-1.12-0.69 and 5.5-27-0.33 = 15.5
22. Jameis Winston, CLV vs. LAC: 35.7-257-1.61-0.86 and 2.2-1-0.05 = 15.4
23. Derek Carr, NO at CAR: 32.0-235-1.50-0.74 and 1.2-3-0.09 = 14.8
24. Caleb Williams, CHI at ARZ: 30.8-201-1.32-0.71 and 3.6-22-0.10 = 14.7
25. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ vs. HST: 35.6-238-1.57-0.85 and 1.0-4-0.02 = 14.6
26. Daniel Jones, NYG vs. WAS: 35.4-217-0.99-0.71 and 5.7-20-0.18 = 14.3

Running Backs

15. J.K. Dobbins, LAC at CLV: 17.2-82-0.41 and 3.3-2.6-15-0.07 = 13.9
16. James Conner, ARZ vs. CHI: 16.5-72-0.51 and 3.0-2.3-18-0.07 = 13.6
17. Kareem Hunt, KC vs. TB: 17.6-63-0.79 and 2.1-1.7-10-0.05 = 13.3
18. David Montgomery, DET at GB: 13.6-61-0.75 and 2.0-1.7-14-0.04 = 13.0
19. James Cook, BUF vs. MIA: 14.5-67-0.45 and 2.6-2.1-19-0.10 = 13.0
20. Nick Chubb, CLV vs. LAC: 17.5-76-0.58 and 2.0-1.3-10-0.04 = 12.9
21. Tony Pollard, TEN vs. NE: 15.0-65-0.42 and 3.9-2.9-17-0.08 = 12.7
22. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at TEN: 16.2-67-0.52 and 2.8-2.2-11-0.07 = 12.4
23. Devin Singletary, NYG vs. WAS: 15.2-63-0.43 and 3.1-2.5-17-0.06 = 12.2
24. Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. NO: 14.1-68-0.40 and 2.7-2.4-13-0.07 = 12.1
25. Alexander Mattison, LV at CIN: 14.1-49-0.51 and 3.3-2.6-21-0.11 = 12.0
26. Brian Robinson Jr., WAS at NYG: 14.3-63-0.59 and 1.6-1.3-11-0.05 = 11.9
27. Javonte Williams, DEN at BLT: 12.3-47-0.37 and 4.1-3.3-20-0.09 = 11.1
28. Chase Brown, CIN vs. LV: 12.1-55-0.34 and 2.9-2.3-14-0.09 = 10.6
29. Rachaad White, TB at KC: 8.3-32-0.19 and 4.2-3.7-30-0.19 = 10.3
30. Bucky Irving, TB at KC: 8.7-44-0.36 and 2.8-2.4-19-0.06 = 10.0
31. Tank Bigsby, JAX at PHI: 10.9-58-0.43 and 1.5-1.1-9-0.04 = 10.0

32. Travis Etienne Jr., JAX at PHI

9.2-38-0.30 and 3.5-2.6-19-0.07 = 9.2

Tank Bigsby has earned his extra playing time from recent weeks with 4.26 yards after contact per attempt, easily the highest rate among regular running backs. But even with his recent rushing outbursts, Bigsby has trailed his teammate D’Ernest Johnson with a 47.2% versus 52.8% route participation rate and ranked 30th among all running backs. Etienne seems likely assert a leading receiving back role when he returns from his hamstring injury this week, and that will insulate him in fantasy even if yields some extra rushing work to Bigsby.

33. Raheem Mostert, MIA at BUF

9.8-43-0.43 and 2.1-1.6-11-0.06 = 9.1

With his teammate De’Von Achane averaging 6.7 catches per game in three Tua Tagovailoa starts this season, Mostert will likely need to score to spur his flex starter status. But the veteran jumped from three red zone carries without Tua in Weeks 5 and 7 combined to five red zone carries with Tua back in Week 8. I wouldn’t count on a renewed 18-touchdown full-season pace. But Mostert could be one of the top touchdown-scorers in the second half of the season.

34. Rico Dowdle, DAL at ATL

11.0-46-0.25 and 2.5-2.0-15-0.08 = 9.1

BALTIMORE, MD - DECEMBER 08: Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle (34) warms up for the Dallas Cowboys game versus the Baltimore Ravens on December 8, 2020 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)
BALTIMORE, MD – DECEMBER 08: Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle (34) warms up for the Dallas Cowboys game versus the Baltimore Ravens on December 8, 2020 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

I’m open-minded to the conspiracy theory that the Cowboys faked Dowdle’s Week 8 illness to try Dalvin Cook in a more prominent role without ruffling too many feathers. But if that conspiracy were true, then Cook didn’t pass the test, running for a meager 12 yards on six carries. With Dowdle back for Week 9, I’m projecting him for a 45.5% versus 24.5% and 15.5% carry share advantage over Ezekiel Elliott and Cook, and that mathematically makes him a back-end flex starter. But I wouldn’t try to talk you out of a lesser-projected wide receiver with upside like Xavier Legette or Diontae Johnson.

35. Zack Moss, CIN vs. LV

6.2-23-0.24 and 3.3-2.7-21-0.09 = 7.7

After yielding 62% versus 45% and 58% versus 49% snap share advantages to Chase Brown in Weeks 6 and 7, Moss clipped his talented teammate with a 52% versus 48% share in Week 8. For me, that seesaw cements the theory that the Bengals prefer Moss in pass protection. That should be good news for the veteran when the Bengals fall behind in future weeks. But don’t count on a pass-friendly gamescript at home against the Raiders in Week 9.

36. Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. DAL: 8.8-41-0.24 and 1.2-1.0-8-0.03 = 7.0
37. Austin Ekeler, WAS at NYG: 4.5-20-0.14 and 3.0-2.4-21-0.08 = 6.7
38. Zach Charbonnet, SEA vs. LA: 5.6-21-0.20 and 3.0-2.5-16-0.07 = 6.6
39. Tyjae Spears, TEN vs. NE: 5.4-22-0.13 and 3.1-2.5-18-0.07 = 6.5
40. Antonio Gibson, NE at TEN: 6.3-26-0.13 and 1.8-1.5-12-0.04 = 5.6
41. Justice Hill, BLT vs. DEN: 2.9-12-0.07 and 2.7-2.2-20-0.09 = 5.3
42. Jerome Ford, CLV vs. LAC: 4.7-21-0.10 and 2.6-2.1-12-0.06 = 5.3
43. Roschon Johnson, CHI at ARZ: 6.7-26-0.29 and 0.9-0.7-5-0.02 = 5.3
44. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN at BLT: 5.1-23-0.13 and 1.9-1.6-8-0.07 = 5.1
45. Ray Davis, BUF vs. MIA: 6.2-26-0.17 and 0.9-0.7-6-0.02 = 4.7
46. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at ATL: 6.3-22-0.19 and 1.3-1.0-6-0.03 = 4.6
47. Jamaal Williams, NO at CAR: 6.3-23-0.21 and 1.1-0.9-5-0.02 = 4.6
48. Jonathon Brooks, CAR vs. NO: 4.4-19-0.13 and 1.6-1.3-10-0.04 = 4.6
49. Braelon Allen, NYJ vs. HST: 5.1-20-0.15 and 1.1-0.8-6-0.03 = 4.1
50. Emanuel Wilson, GB vs. DET: 4.7-20-0.09 and 1.2-0.9-6-0.03 = 3.8
51. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI vs. JAX: 3.1-14-0.11 and 1.5-1.1-8-0.03 = 3.5
52. Sean Tucker, TB at KC: 3.2-16-0.08 and 1.0-0.8-7-0.03 = 3.4
53. Kimani Vidal, LAC at CLV: 4.8-19-0.13 and 0.6-0.5-4-0.02 = 3.4

Wide Receivers

7. Puka Nacua, LA at SEA: 8.4-5.8-81-0.34 = 13.4
8. Tyreek Hill, MIA at BUF: 9.0-5.7-78-0.41 = 13.4
9. Drake London, ATL vs. DAL: 8.9-6.2-71-0.49 = 13.2
10. Brian Thomas Jr., JAX at PHI: 7.1-4.7-75-0.43 = 12.6
11. Josh Downs, IND at MIN: 8.9-6.1-69-0.40 = 12.3
12. Terry McLaurin, WAS at NYG: 7.7-5.2-73-0.39 = 12.3
13. Chris Olave, NO at CAR: 8.4-5.7-73-0.35 = 12.3
14. DK Metcalf, SEA vs. LA: 8.2-4.7-73-0.42 = 12.2
15. Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. HST: 9.4-5.8-66-0.40 = 11.9
16. DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. JAX: 7.4-5.4-69-0.37 = 11.9
17. Cooper Kupp, LA at SEA: 8.7-5.7-60-0.46 = 11.8
18. Tee Higgins, CIN vs. LV: 8.0-5.0-65-0.44 = 11.7
19. Davante Adams, NYJ vs. HST: 8.6-5.1-61-0.42 = 11.2
20. DJ Moore, CHI at ARZ: 7.5-4.9-60-0.41 = 11.1
21. Jayden Reed, GB vs. DET: 5.6-4.0-59-0.31 = 11.0
22. Tank Dell, HST at NYJ: 7.6-4.8-57-0.41 = 10.8
23. Ladd McConkey, LAC at CLV: 7.3-4.8-60-0.40 = 10.7
24. Darnell Mooney, ATL vs. DAL: 7.5-4.6-62-0.34 = 10.6
25. Jakobi Meyers, LV at CIN: 7.3-5.1-57-0.37 = 10.5
26. Marvin Harrison Jr., ARZ vs. CHI: 7.6-4.1-59-0.42 = 10.4
27. Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. MIA: 5.7-5.0-62-0.25 = 10.3
28. Michael Pittman Jr., IND at MIN: 8.5-5.1-57-0.31 = 10.1
29. Romeo Doubs, GB vs. DET: 6.4-4.1-56-0.37 = 9.8
30. Zay Flowers, BLT vs. DEN: 6.7-4.5-57-0.26 = 9.7
31. Calvin Ridley, TEN vs. NE: 8.4-4.0-55-0.34 = 9.7
32. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. LA: 7.3-5.0-50-0.31 = 9.3

33. Cedric Tillman, CLV vs. LAC

6.9-4.4-50-0.33 = 9.2

Tillman’s 8-catch, 81-yard and 7-catch, 77-yard and 2-touchdown outburst the last two weeks since the Amari Cooper trade may not destine him for stardom. But the sophomore receiver looked like “baby” Mike Evans with his 6-foot-3 and 213-pound measurements and 4.54-second 40 time at the combine — Evans is 6-foot-5, 230 pounds and ran a 4.53-second 40. Tillman’s ceiling is too high to sit him in fantasy.

34. Courtland Sutton, DEN at BLT

7.3-3.9-50-0.32 = 8.8

Sutton made himself difficult to trust in fantasy with a zero-target Week 7. But the veteran bounced back with 11 targets and 100 yards in Week 8. And even with the zero-burger, Sutton still ranks 13th among wide receivers with a 21.2% target share this year. Continue to start him.

35. Xavier Worthy, KC vs. TB

6.4-3.5-44-0.32 = 8.7

Worthy may be the eventual biggest loser of the DeAndre Hopkins trade. But the veteran receiver played a modest 32% of snaps in his Chiefs debut and may need more time to learn the playbook and ramp up to a full-time role. And Worthy set season highs with eight targets each of the last two weeks even if that didn’t translate into major fantasy success. I would start him at least for another week.

36. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG vs. WAS

8.1-5.4-42-0.27 = 8.6

FOXBOROUGH, MA - AUGUST 11: New York Giants wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson (17) carries the ball in warm up before an NFL preseason game between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants on August 11, 2022, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)
FOXBOROUGH, MA – AUGUST 11: New York Giants wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (17) carries the ball in warm up before an NFL preseason game between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants on August 11, 2022, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Robinson has produced modest totals of 23 and 30 yards since his talented rookie teammate Malik Nabers returned from his concussion in Week 7. But the former’s tremendous target volume hasn’t slowed down. Robinson ranks 10th among wide receivers with his 23.0% target share this season. And he’s a flex starter in any sort of PPR format because of it.

37. Jaylen Waddle, MIA at BUF

5.7-3.9-53-0.20 = 8.6

Waddle has yet to score a touchdown in 2024, and that has sabotaged his fantasy value across the board. But the veteran receiver has shown marked splits of 65 yards per game in Tua Tagovailoa’s three starts versus 30 yards per game with other quarterbacks. The former is a 1,100-yard pace. Continue to start Waddle and hope that Tagovailoa’s return can reignite last year’s No. 2 passing offense.

38. Jerry Jeudy, CLV vs. LAC

6.7-3.8-51-0.25 = 8.5

Tillman has been the most obvious winner of the Browns’ Amari Cooper trade and Jameis Winston switch. But the veteran Jeudy set a new season high with 79 yards last Sunday, too. I see him as a better flex option than some much more prominent wide receivers.

39. Xavier Legette, CAR vs. NO

6.3-4.0-43-0.32 = 8.4

Legette is the logical choice to take over for Diontae Johnson’s No. 1 receiver role in Carolina, and I am projecting the rookie for a 23.5% target share in Week 9 that ties him for 24th at his position. But the Panthers’ switch from Andy Dalton back to Bryce Young at quarterback hurts his receivers even if that’s difficult to see in the team’s broader results. The former owns substantial edges of a 65.3% versus 59.8% completion rate, 6.2 versus 5.1 yards per attempt, and a -16.7% versus -45.4% DVOA rate. It may be prudent to bench Legette until Dalton presumably retakes the starting job.

40. Keenan Allen, CHI at ARZ

6.3-4.0-45-0.31 = 8.4

Allen saw his typical 29% target share in Week 8. But with his quarterback Caleb Williams completing just 10 of a modest 24 pass attempts, that didn’t amount to much in fantasy. Williams has teased a potential turning of the rookie corner with 304 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5 and 226 yards and four touchdowns in Week 6. But he did that against Panthers and Jaguars opponents that rank 31st and 32nd in defensive DVOA. I will trust Allen more if Williams rebounds against better defenses in the next few weeks.

41. Diontae Johnson, BLT vs. DEN

6.7-3.6-44-0.34 = 8.2

Johnson will eventually be a no-brainer fantasy start with his new Ravens team. But Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins played reduced 35% and 32% snap shares after mid-week trades the last two weeks. And I expect Johnson will need a similar ramp-up period to return to his typical every-down role. You likely should bench him in the meantime.

42. Amari Cooper, BUF vs. MIA

5.1-3.2-49-0.29 = 8.2

Cooper did improve from his 35% snap share in his Bills debut in Week 7 to a 50% share in Week 8. But that wasn’t back to his Browns standard of 82%-plus snap shares. You could reasonably bet that this will be the week he fully integrates. But he’s a risky flex option until we see it happen.

43. Quentin Johnston, LAC at CLV: 5.6-3.4-41-0.30 = 7.8
44. Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. LA: 5.6-3.6-44-0.26 = 7.7
45. Keon Coleman, BUF vs. MIA: 4.8-3.0-46-0.27 = 7.7
46. Jordan Addison, MIN vs. IND: 4.9-3.1-43-0.28 = 7.7
47. Gabe Davis, JAX at PHI: 5.5-3.0-43-0.29 = 7.5
48. Elijah Moore, CLV vs. LAC: 6.4-4.2-40-0.22 = 7.4
49. DeAndre Hopkins, KC vs. TB: 5.3-3.3-42-0.24 = 7.3
50. Jalen Tolbert, DAL at ATL: 4.8-3.3-40-0.23 = 7.0
51. Alec Pierce, IND at MIN: 4.6-2.5-45-0.20 = 6.9
52. Darius Slayton, NYG vs. WAS: 4.8-3.0-43-0.16 = 6.8
53. Michael Wilson, ARZ vs. CHI: 4.6-3.1-37-0.24 = 6.7
54. Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL vs. DAL: 4.9-3.4-35-0.14 = 6.4
55. Tyler Boyd, TEN vs. NE: 4.9-3.4-35-0.19 = 6.3
56. Rome Odunze, CHI at ARZ: 4.8-2.7-36-0.21 = 6.3
57. Noah Brown, WAS at NYG: 4.1-2.6-39-0.18 = 6.2
58. Christian Watson, GB vs. DET: 4.0-2.4-34-0.26 = 6.2
59. Jalen McMillan, TB at KC: 5.2-2.8-32-0.21 = 6.1
60. Joshua Palmer, LAC at CLV: 4.0-2.6-37-0.17 = 6.0

Tight Ends

6. Sam LaPorta, DET at GB: 5.9-4.6-52-0.37 = 9.7
7. Cade Otton, TB at KC: 7.0-4.9-48-0.40 = 9.6
8. Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. DAL: 6.1-4.1-55-0.28 = 9.3
9. Jake Ferguson, DAL at ATL: 6.5-4.8-44-0.30 = 8.6

10. Taysom Hill, NO at CAR

2.5-1.8-17-0.12 = 8.1

ATLANTA, GA - NOVEMBER 28: New Orleans Saints Quarterback Taysom Hill (7) rushes for a touchdown during the NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons on November 28, 2019, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.(Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire)
ATLANTA, GA – NOVEMBER 28: New Orleans Saints Quarterback Taysom Hill (7) rushes for a touchdown during the NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons on November 28, 2019, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.(Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire)

Hill returned from his broken ribs in Week 8, and he’s healthier now. And that returns the Saints’ Swiss Army knife to his very weird TE1 value that stems from his 0.32 projected rushing touchdowns.

11. Tucker Kraft, GB vs. DET

4.6-3.3-43-0.29 = 7.6

Kraft ranks closer to TE2 status than you likely expect because of his position-leading 3.82 expected touchdown surplus. The talented sophomore has scored three of his five touchdowns from long distances of 13, 14, and 66 yards from the end zone. And that surplus will likely regress with Kraft having modest totals of seven red zone targets and one end zone target.

12. Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. MIA

5.9-3.9-40-0.24 = 7.4

Despite his touchdown in Week 8, Kincaid has his own weird touchdown trend. The sophomore tight end scored on Sunday on a catch-and-run and still has just five end zone targets since the start of 2023. Kincaid has a TE1 target volume, at least while Amari Cooper is playing a limited snap share. But he may not score the touchdowns to support the top five value many expected in the preseason.

13. Cole Kmet, CHI at ARZ

4.3-3.6-39-0.27 = 7.3

Kmet shook off his weird Week 1 snap share deficit to his new teammate Gerald Everett with dominant 77-90% shares each of the last six weeks. His fall to the top of the TE2s says more about Caleb Williams and the Bears passing offense than it does about his role.

14. Dalton Schultz, HST at NYJ

6.1-3.8-39-0.24 = 7.2

The Texans started the season with too many standout receiving options for Schultz to produce as his traditional top 10 tight end standard. But now with Nico Collins down with a hamstring injury and Stefon Diggs out for the year with an ACL tear, Schultz should be C.J. Stroud’s temporary No. 2 option. I have him just below the TE1 benchmark for fantasy this week. But he’s just 0.2 projected fantasy points below that standard. You could reasonably start him this week if you’re optimistic.

15. Mark Andrews, BLT vs. DEN

4.1-3.1-36-0.31 = 7.0

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) celebrates his touchdown with tight end Mark Andrews (89) in the first half of an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, Dec. 1, 2019, in Baltimore, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) celebrates his touchdown with tight end Mark Andrews (89) in the first half of an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, Dec. 1, 2019, in Baltimore, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Andrews has recovered from a disastrous fantasy start to his season to score four touchdowns in the last three weeks, and he now ranks sixth at his position in fantasy points. His modest TE15 ranking reflects the Ravens’ Diontae Johnson addition. With that extra mouth to feed, I dropped Andrews to a 14.5% projected target share that ties him for just 17th among tight ends in Week 9.

16. Zach Ertz, WAS at NYG: 4.9-3.5-36-0.23 = 6.7
17. Hunter Henry, NE at TEN: 4.7-3.3-37-0.21 = 6.6
18. T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. IND: 4.6-3.4-35-0.21 = 6.4
19. Isaiah Likely, BLT vs. DEN: 3.8-2.7-31-0.28 = 6.2
20. Jonnu Smith, MIA at BUF: 4.4-3.2-34-0.17 = 6.0
21. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. HST: 4.3-3.0-29-0.19 = 5.5
22. Will Dissly, LAC at CLV: 4.1-3.2-30-0.14 = 5.4
23. Noah Fant, SEA vs. LA: 3.5-2.8-31-0.11 = 5.1
24. Colby Parkinson, LA at SEA: 3.9-2.6-25-0.16 = 4.8
25. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN vs. NE: 3.6-2.6-24-0.14 = 4.6
26. Mike Gesicki, CIN vs. LV: 3.2-2.5-25-0.14 = 4.6
27. Noah Gray, KC vs. TB: 2.9-2.3-26-0.12 = 4.5
28. Grant Calcaterra, PHI vs. JAX: 2.9-2.3-27-0.12 = 4.5
29. Juwan Johnson, NO at CAR: 3.2-2.3-23-0.15 = 4.4
30. Hayden Hurst, LAC at CLV: 2.9-1.9-19-0.13 = 3.6
31. Theo Johnson, NYG vs. WAS: 2.6-1.8-19-0.12 = 3.5
32. Adam Trautman, DEN at BLT: 2.3-1.5-18-0.13 = 3.4
33. Austin Hooper, NE at TEN: 2.7-1.8-17-0.11 = 3.3
34. Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR vs. NO: 2.4-1.8-17-0.11 = 3.2
35. Erick All Jr., CIN vs. LV: 2.2-1.8-16-0.10 = 3.1

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