Bettings
article-picture
article-picture
NFL
Fantasy

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 8

Share
Contents
Close

Week 8 of the fantasy football season offers a temporary bye-week reprieve. But that doesn’t make things easy for the fantasy players grappling with the latest Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injuries and DeAndre Hopkins trade.

My Week 8 start and sit column can help with those fantasy decisions with its leaning on my comprehensive weekly fantasy projections that rank players and provide discrete values to help you set your lineups no matter your format or depth of fantasy league. Read on to see what it shows for Week 8.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end, and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 8

Quarterbacks

5. Jordan Love, GB at JAX: 33.5-250-2.04-1.04 and 2.1-8-0.08 = 17.4
6. Jared Goff, DET vs. TEN: 32.4-275-1.78-0.62 and 1.6-2-0.04 = 17.3
7. Kyler Murray, ARZ at MIA: 30.3-205-1.24-0.55 and 4.5-41-0.14 = 16.9
8. Geno Smith, SEA vs. BUF: 37.9-270-1.36-0.80 and 2.6-17-0.08 = 16.8
9. Dak Prescott, DAL at SF: 36.5-263-1.53-0.88 and 2.0-8-0.11 = 16.3

10. Patrick Mahomes, KC at LV

34.7-255-1.53-0.97 and 3.2-14-0.09 = 16.3

Frustrated Mahomes rosters may be hoping DeAndre Hopkins saves his season. But the All-Pro quarterback may not have needed the help to bounce back. Mahomes is averaging the same 5.5 red zone pass attempts per game this year that he did in 2020 but is suffering the first expected touchdown shortfall of his career. He should see better luck with conversions near the end zone and in capping more drives with passing rather than rushing scores. Continue to start him in fantasy.

11. Drake Maye, NE vs. NYJ

33.4-229-1.40-0.87 and 3.7-23-0.14 = 16.2

FOXBOROUGH, MA - AUGUST 15: New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) drops back during a preseason game between the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles on August 15, 2024, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)
FOXBOROUGH, MA – AUGUST 15: New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) drops back during a preseason game between the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles on August 15, 2024, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

You may have heard on a broadcast that Maye is sneaky athletic, and that is a major driver of his potential QB1 value. The rookie has eight attempts for 54 rushing yards in his two starts, and he ran for 1,147 yards and 16 touchdowns his last two seasons at North Carolina.

12. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. ARZ

33.1-265-1.66-0.89 and 1.3-5-0.03 = 16.1

It may feel like 100 years ago, but Tagovailoa was a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2023. One poor outing in his two weeks on the field shouldn’t sway your opinion of his fantasy prospects. His health on the other hand? Consider your own risk tolerance in deciding whether you want to start Tagovailoa this week.

13. C.J. Stroud, HST vs. IND

33.3-244-1.40-0.53 and 2.5-11-0.10 = 16.0

Stroud has been as impressive in 2024 as he was in his rookie 2023 season. But the former No. 2 pick has declined from 4.5 red zone pass attempts per game last year to 2.9 this year. Joe Mixon has helped the Texans find the balance they need for a deep postseason run. But his 4.8 red zone carries per game cost Stroud a QB1 ranking.

14. Sam Darnold, MIN at LA

28.8-235-1.58-0.81 and 3.6-15-0.05 = 15.9

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - AUGUST 10: Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) runs with the ball while being chased by Las Vegas Raiders linebacker Robert Spillane (41) during the NFL preseason game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Minnesota Vikings on August 10, 2024, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 10: Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) runs with the ball while being chased by Las Vegas Raiders linebacker Robert Spillane (41) during the NFL preseason game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Minnesota Vikings on August 10, 2024, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)

Darnold rebounded from a modest London game for 298 combined passing and rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 7. But the journeyman threw a modest 27 pass attempts last Sunday. And it’s harder to cry regression now that he’s thrown between 24 and 31 passes in all six starts this season. I’m projecting Darnold as one of the most efficient passers in Week 8. But his 28.8 projected pass attempts are more than just the most extreme rushing starters Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson and Marcus Mariota, and that lack of volume sabotages his QB1 chances.

15. Anthony Richardson, IND at HST: 27.7-206-0.97-1.03 and 6.4-36-0.36 = 15.8
16. Trevor Lawrence, JAX vs. GB: 32.8-236-1.41-0.62 and 1.9-11-0.09 = 15.4
17. Kirk Cousins, ATL at TB: 35.8-270-1.54-0.90 and 0.7-0-0.03 = 15.4
18. Marcus Mariota, WAS vs. CHI: 27.1-199-1.19-0.62 and 5.0-26-0.21 = 15.3
19. Baker Mayfield, TB vs. ATL: 33.0-220-1.35-0.83 and 3.1-19-0.14 = 15.3
20. Caleb Williams, CHI at WAS: 31.9-212-1.40-0.80 and 3.1-21-0.09 = 15.1
21. Justin Herbert, LAC vs. NO: 33.2-232-1.43-0.43 and 2.6-4-0.07 = 15.0
22. Russell Wilson, PIT vs. NYG: 30.8-222-1.39-0.55 and 1.9-8-0.10 = 14.7
23. Daniel Jones, NYG at PIT: 34.7-209-1.04-0.66 and 5.7-21-0.19 = 14.5
24. Bo Nix, DEN vs. CAR: 31.9-179-0.93-0.73 and 5.9-32-0.28 = 14.3
25. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ at NE: 36.4-237-1.53-0.95 and 1.0-4-0.02 = 14.2
26. Brock Purdy, SF vs. DAL: 30.2-216-1.15-0.82 and 3.1-14-0.14 = 13.9
27. Matthew Stafford, LA vs. MIN: 34.0-243-1.22-0.71 and 0.9-2-0.02 = 13.5

Running Backs

18. Nick Chubb, CLV vs. BLT: 16.9-78-0.61 and 1.9-1.4-10-0.04 = 13.3
19. Tony Pollard, TEN at DET: 15.4-66-0.46 and 4.0-3.0-18-0.09 = 13.2
20. David Montgomery, DET vs. TEN: 14.0-63-0.73 and 2.0-1.7-14-0.04 = 13.1
21. Josh Jacobs, GB at JAX: 14.7-66-0.38 and 3.2-2.5-19-0.10 = 12.6
22. Tank Bigsby, JAX vs. GB: 13.9-75-0.57 and 1.2-0.9-7-0.03 = 12.2
23. Alexander Mattison, LV vs. KC: 13.9-53-0.43 and 3.5-2.7-22-0.11 = 12.1
24. Kareem Hunt, KC at LV: 15.1-56-0.65 and 2.4-1.9-12-0.06 = 12.0
25. James Cook, BUF at SEA: 13.8-60-0.39 and 2.6-2.1-19-0.10 = 11.9
26. Rico Dowdle, DAL at SF: 12.8-53-0.31 and 3.0-2.4-18-0.10 = 10.7
27. Najee Harris, PIT vs. NYG: 15.1-62-0.41 and 1.9-1.4-11-0.04 = 10.6
28. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. NYJ: 11.8-52-0.33 and 3.4-2.6-14-0.08 = 10.3
29. Javonte Williams, DEN vs. CAR: 10.6-42-0.31 and 4.0-3.2-21-0.09 = 10.2
30. Chase Brown, CIN vs. PHI: 11.1-52-0.29 and 2.8-2.3-15-0.09 = 10.2
31. Rachaad White, TB vs. ATL: 8.9-34-0.21 and 3.7-3.3-27-0.15 = 9.8
32. Brian Robinson Jr., WAS vs. CHI: 11.5-51-0.48 and 1.4-1.1-10-0.04 = 9.8

33. Jaylen Warren, PIT vs. NYG

9.5-43-0.23 and 3.3-2.8-18-0.07 = 9.2

Warren was dealing with a knee injury in the first few weeks this season even before he missed Week 4 and 5 entirely. But the versatile back jumped from between 31-37% snap shares in three of his first four starts this season to a 51% share in Week 7. He may finally be healthy. And with a likely target boost from a relatively pass-forward Russell Wilson at quarterback, you can return Warren to your fantasy lineups.

34. Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG at PIT

9.9-43-0.24 and 3.0-2.4-18-0.07 = 9.1

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the veteran Devin Singletary ramp up from his 21% snap share in Week 7 another week removed from his groin injury. But the rookie Tracy more than tripled Singletary with his 67% snap share. You should be safe to continue to start him in fantasy.

35. Raheem Mostert, MIA vs. ARZ

9.8-44-0.38 and 2.1-1.6-11-0.06 = 9.0

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - NOVEMBER 13: Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) looks toward the stands after scoring a touchdown during the game between the Cleveland Browns and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, November 13, 2022 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)
MIAMI GARDENS, FL – NOVEMBER 13: Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) looks toward the stands after scoring a touchdown during the game between the Cleveland Browns and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, November 13, 2022 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

It’s crossed my mind that there is a curse that hits the backs who lead the league in rushing touchdowns in the following seasons. But with Tua Tagovailoa poised to return in Week 8, I’m willing to give Mostert more time to hopefully return to his former fantasy starter status.

36. Zack Moss, CIN vs. PHI

7.6-29-0.28 and 3.2-2.6-20-0.09 = 8.4

Moss has been the victim of Chase Brown’s Year 2 breakout, declining from better than 60% snap shares in each of the first five weeks to 45% and 49% shares the last two weeks. But the Bengals continue to prefer Moss as a blocker on obvious pass plays. And his resulting top 20 running back target share helps him cling to flex value.

37. Bucky Irving, TB vs. ATL

7.8-39-0.34 and 2.0-1.7-14-0.05 = 8.4

Todd Bowles’ riding of the hot hand at running back in Week 7 looked suspiciously similar to the team’s preseason backfield hierarchy with Rachaad White, Irving and Sean Tucker playing 48%, 35%, and 20% of snaps. Fantasy players shouldn’t count on an Irving RB1 promotion. And with the injuries the Bucs have suffered at wide receiver, Irving may fall below the flex starter benchmark in the next few weeks.

38. Tyjae Spears, TEN at DET

6.0-24-0.14 and 3.4-2.8-20-0.08 = 7.1

Spears missed Week 7 with a hamstring injury, but he returned to a limited practice Wednesday. He played a clear No. 2 backfield role behind Tony Pollard even before the injury. But if he can play this Sunday, then you can play the talented sophomore in your deeper fantasy leagues.

39. Zach Charbonnet, SEA vs. BUF: 5.8-23-0.17 and 3.1-2.6-17-0.07 = 6.7
40. Austin Ekeler, WAS vs. CHI: 4.6-21-0.14 and 2.8-2.3-20-0.08 = 6.5
41. Jerome Ford, CLV vs. BLT: 7.3-33-0.15 and 2.2-1.8-10-0.05 = 6.4
42. Tyler Allgeier, ATL at TB: 7.7-36-0.22 and 1.2-1.0-8-0.03 = 6.4
43. Devin Singletary, NYG at PIT: 7.9-33-0.22 and 1.6-1.3-9-0.03 = 6.3
44. Justice Hill, BLT at CLV: 3.0-13-0.08 and 3.3-2.7-24-0.11 = 6.2
45. Antonio Gibson, NE vs. NYJ: 6.1-26-0.12 and 2.1-1.7-14-0.05 = 5.9
46. D’Ernest Johnson, JAX vs. GB: 5.3-20-0.13 and 2.4-1.8-14-0.05 = 5.3
47. Roschon Johnson, CHI at WAS: 6.4-25-0.25 and 1.2-1.0-7-0.03 = 5.3
48. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN vs. CAR: 5.2-23-0.14 and 2.0-1.7-8-0.06 = 5.1
49. Miles Sanders, CAR at DEN: 4.7-19-0.13 and 2.7-1.9-12-0.04 = 5.0
50. Ray Davis, BUF at SEA: 6.3-26-0.18 and 1.1-0.9-7-0.03 = 5.0
51. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at SF: 6.3-22-0.17 and 1.6-1.2-8-0.04 = 4.8
52. Ty Chandler, MIN at LA: 6.2-25-0.14 and 1.2-1.0-7-0.03 = 4.6

Wide Receivers

10. George Pickens, PIT vs. NYG: 8.4-4.9-77-0.38 = 12.4
11. Jayden Reed, GB at JAX: 6.2-4.5-63-0.35 = 12.2
12. Stefon Diggs, HST vs. IND: 8.4-6.1-65-0.39 = 12.1
13. Brian Thomas Jr., JAX vs. GB: 7.0-4.6-71-0.40 = 12.0
14. Davante Adams, NYJ at NE: 9.3-5.4-65-0.45 = 11.9
15. Chris Olave, NO at LAC: 8.6-5.6-71-0.30 = 11.7
16. Cooper Kupp, LA vs. MIN: 8.7-5.7-61-0.43 = 11.7
17. DJ Moore, CHI at WAS: 7.7-5.1-62-0.41 = 11.4
18. Jauan Jennings, SF vs. DAL: 6.7-4.5-65-0.37 = 11.0
19. Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. BUF: 7.8-5.1-62-0.36 = 11.0
20. Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. CHI: 7.0-4.7-62-0.36 = 10.8
21. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. BUF: 8.4-5.6-55-0.36 = 10.5
22. Garrett Wilson, NYJ at NE: 8.4-5.2-55-0.37 = 10.3
23. Darnell Mooney, ATL at TB: 7.7-4.6-59-0.33 = 10.3
24. Zay Flowers, BLT at CLV: 7.0-4.9-59-0.28 = 10.2
25. DeVonta Smith, PHI at CIN: 6.5-4.6-59-0.31 = 10.1
26. Tank Dell, HST vs. IND: 7.1-4.3-52-0.35 = 9.9
27. Diontae Johnson, CAR at DEN: 7.8-4.2-51-0.40 = 9.8
28. Marvin Harrison Jr., ARZ at MIA: 7.5-3.8-52-0.38 = 9.3
29. Ladd McConkey, LAC vs. NO: 7.2-4.5-51-0.32 = 9.3
30. Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. ARZ: 6.1-4.2-57-0.22 = 9.2
31. Romeo Doubs, GB at JAX: 6.0-3.9-51-0.35 = 9.2
32. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG at PIT: 8.6-5.6-45-0.28 = 9.2

33. Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. KC

6.5-4.4-51-0.31 = 9.2

INGLEWOOD, CA - OCTOBER 1: Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (16) walks off of the field during the NFL regular season game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers on October 1, 2023, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire)
INGLEWOOD, CA – OCTOBER 1: Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (16) walks off of the field during the NFL regular season game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers on October 1, 2023, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire)

After missing the last two weeks with an ankle injury, Meyers returned to a limited practice Wednesday. And after the Davante Adams trade, Meyers will be the No. 1 Raiders wide receiver by default. The team has an extremely inexperienced receiver depth chart behind him with Tre Tucker, DJ Turner, Alex Bachman and Kristian Wilkerson.

34. Keenan Allen, CHI at WAS

6.3-4.3-47-0.32 = 8.8

Allen finally saw his fantasy breakout with two touchdowns in Week 6 before the Bears’ Week 7 bye. But the veteran enjoyed that success against a Jaguars opponent that ranks 32nd in pass defense and 32nd in overall defensive DVOA. I’m a bit worried about everyone in the Bears passing game as the team flips from the easiest schedule so far to the hardest over the rest of the season. But I’m worried the most about Allen who has yet to hit 50 yards in a game with his new team and faces increasing No. 2 receiver competition from talented rookie Rome Odunze.

35. Calvin Ridley, TEN at DET

8.0-3.7-49-0.29 = 8.7

After the DeAndre Hopkins trade, I’m projecting Ridley for a 27.5% target share that is tied for ninth highest among wide receivers in Week 8. But will those targets be catchable?

36. Xavier Worthy, KC at LV

5.9-3.3-43-0.28 = 8.3

Worthy has barely cracked the top 50 wide receivers with his 14.6% target share this season. And while he had trended up in recent weeks with Rashee Rice and JuJu Smith-Schuster suffering injuries, he will likely yield some of those gains to his new teammate DeAndre Hopkins. I’m projected Worthy for a 20.5% target share in Week 8 that is tied for 36th among wide receivers. You’re betting on a touchdown if you start him in fantasy.

37. Khalil Shakir, BUF at SEA

4.6-4.0-50-0.22 = 8.3

Shakir has encored his position-leading 55.0% DVOA rate from 2023 with a 40.3% rate in 2024 that is top five at his position. He’s one of the most underrated receivers in football. But Shakir seems likely to take a small fantasy hit with his new teammate Amari Cooper poised to more than double his 35% snap share from Week 7 with another week to prepare with his new team. Shakir will likely be a better real than fantasy player for the rest of this season.

38. Quentin Johnston, LAC vs. NO

5.8-3.5-42-0.31 = 8.0

INGLEWOOD, CA - OCTOBER 1: Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston (1) guarded by Las Vegas Raiders safety Marcus Epps (1) during the NFL game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers on October 01, 2023, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)
INGLEWOOD, CA – OCTOBER 1: Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston (1) guarded by Las Vegas Raiders safety Marcus Epps (1) during the NFL game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers on October 01, 2023, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

Johnston has supported his three touchdowns in 2024 with eight targets thrown into the red zone, the most among Chargers receivers even after he missed Week 7 with an ankle injury. But maybe predictably with Jim Harbaugh at head coach, the team isn’t throwing enough to support a second fantasy receiver. Include Johnston — if he plays this week — in any Justin Herbert DFS stacks you want to make. But bench him in your traditional fantasy formats.

39. Josh Downs, IND at HST

5.9-4.2-43-0.26 = 8.0

Downs was a slam-dunk fantasy starter with a top-10 wide receiver target share (25.0%) in the month from Week 3 to Week 6. But the sophomore receiver suffered a toe injury at the end of that run. And even while he played his typical 61% snap share in Week 7, he saw a definitive season low of just three targets. I would bench him until he demonstrates better health.

40. Jerry Jeudy, CLV vs. BLT: 6.2-3.5-47-0.25 = 7.9
41. Tutu Atwell, LA vs. MIN: 5.4-3.5-48-0.19 = 7.9
42. Amari Cooper, BUF at SEA: 6.5-3.3-46-0.27 = 7.8
43. Demarcus Robinson, LA vs. MIN: 5.7-3.3-44-0.29 = 7.8
44. Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. CAR: 6.6-3.4-44-0.28 = 7.8
45. Christian Kirk, JAX vs. GB: 5.7-3.5-45-0.24 = 7.7
46. DeMario Douglas, NE vs. NYJ: 5.6-3.8-42-0.18 = 7.4
47. DeAndre Hopkins, KC at LV: 5.3-3.3-42-0.24 = 7.3
48. Cedric Tillman, CLV vs. BLT: 6.1-3.6-40-0.24 = 7.2
49. Michael Pittman Jr., IND at HST: 5.7-3.6-41-0.22 = 7.2
50. Jordan Addison, MIN at LA: 4.6-2.9-41-0.24 = 7.2
51. Rashod Bateman, BLT at CLV: 4.5-2.9-45-0.20 = 7.2
52. Jalen Tolbert, DAL at SF: 5.0-3.4-40-0.24 = 7.1
53. Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL at TB: 5.4-3.6-40-0.16 = 7.0
54. Gabe Davis, JAX vs. GB: 4.9-2.7-38-0.25 = 6.6
55. Tre Tucker, LV vs. KC: 4.8-2.9-35-0.18 = 6.5
56. Tyler Boyd, TEN at DET: 4.9-3.4-37-0.17 = 6.4
57. Joshua Palmer, LAC vs. NO: 4.4-2.9-38-0.19 = 6.4
58. Xavier Legette, CAR at DEN: 4.6-2.9-33-0.22 = 6.3
59. Rome Odunze, CHI at WAS: 4.7-2.7-36-0.21 = 6.3
60. Jalen McMillan, TB vs. ATL: 5.3-2.9-34-0.21 = 6.1
61. Sterling Shepard, TB vs. ATL: 5.0-3.0-32-0.22 = 6.1
62. Michael Wilson, ARZ at MIA: 4.2-2.8-35-0.20 = 6.0
63. Keon Coleman, BUF at SEA: 3.9-2.4-37-0.20 = 6.0
64. Trey Palmer, TB vs. ATL: 4.7-2.8-33-0.20 = 5.9
65. Allen Lazard, NYJ at NE: 3.9-2.5-33-0.22 = 5.9
66. Dontayvion Wicks, GB at JAX: 5.0-2.3-31-0.23 = 5.6
67. Elijah Moore, CLV vs. BLT: 4.8-3.1-29-0.17 = 5.6
68. Ricky Pearsall, SF vs. DAL: 4.2-2.7-32-0.18 = 5.6
69. Darius Slayton, NYG at PIT: 4.0-2.5-34-0.14 = 5.5
70. Kalif Raymond, DET vs. TEN: 3.3-2.4-32-0.13 = 5.4
71. Christian Watson, GB at JAX: 3.4-2.0-30-0.22 = 5.3
72. Jake Bobo, SEA vs. BUF: 4.0-2.7-28-0.16 = 5.1
73. Alec Pierce, IND at HST: 3.3-1.8-33-0.15 = 5.1

Tight Ends

4. David Njoku, CLV vs. BLT: 8.3-5.7-56-0.40 = 10.9
5. Evan Engram, JAX vs. GB: 7.6-6.0-55-0.31 = 10.3
6. Trey McBride, ARZ at MIA: 7.6-5.6-55-0.24 = 9.8
7. Jake Ferguson, DAL at SF: 6.2-4.5-45-0.30 = 8.6
8. Sam LaPorta, DET vs. TEN: 5.3-4.0-46-0.29 = 8.3
9. Cole Kmet, CHI at WAS: 4.8-4.0-43-0.31 = 8.1
10. Kyle Pitts, ATL at TB: 5.8-3.8-48-0.23 = 8.0

11. Tucker Kraft, GB at JAX

4.9-3.5-40-0.28 = 7.4

GREEN BAY, WI - NOVEMBER 19: Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft (85) leaps towards the end zone during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Chargers at Lambeau Field on November 19, 2023 in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)
GREEN BAY, WI – NOVEMBER 19: Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft (85) leaps towards the end zone during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Chargers at Lambeau Field on November 19, 2023 in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

With three of his four touchdowns from 13, 14 and 66 yards from the end zone, Kraft has racked up a 3.13 expected touchdown surplus that nearly doubles the surplus of the second-luckiest tight end (Cole Kmet, 1.58). Kraft is a comfortable fantasy TE1. But he may not be as highly ranked as you expect.

12. Hunter Henry, NE vs. NYJ

5.3-3.7-41-0.25 = 7.4

I’ve probably had a different answer for who the top Patriots receiver is each of the last four weeks. But as the Drake Maye dust has settled, Henry has netted a 16.4% target share that is sixth highest among tight ends this season. I would start him in fantasy — at least until Ja’Lynn Polk has an out-of-nowhere 10 targets in Week 8.

13. Dalton Kincaid, BUF at SEA

5.6-3.8-40-0.22 = 7.2

Kincaid may not have the playing time concerns that his receiver teammates Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel do from the team’s trade for Amari Cooper. But the sophomore tight end has a modest four red zone targets this year, tied for just 13th most at his position. Any hit to Kincaid’s target volume would threaten his traditional TE1 fantasy value.

14. Cade Otton, TB vs. ATL

5.7-3.8-38-0.26 = 7.2

Otton looked like the major beneficiary of Mike Evans’ and Chris Godwin’s injuries in Week 7, posting a career high eight catches and 100 yards. But the veteran tight end was already leading tight ends with a 96.1% route participation rate in the first six weeks with Evans and Godwin healthy. He may not have the room to improve that you expect. And I would bench him in fantasy unless he follows up his outburst with another featured role in Week 8.

15. T.J. Hockenson, MIN at LA

4.9-3.6-37-0.22 = 6.8

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – NOVEMBER 24: Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) is introduced before a game between the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots on November 24, 2022, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

Hockenson finished second among tight ends with 127 targets in 2023. But Sam Darnold is throwing dramatically fewer pass attempts per game than his predecessors Kirk Cousins, Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens. I would prefer to wait a week to see how involved Hockenson can be in his return from an ACL tear before I threw him back in my fantasy lineups.

16. Mark Andrews, BLT at CLV: 4.0-2.9-35-0.27 = 6.6
17. Will Dissly, LAC vs. NO: 4.7-3.7-36-0.17 = 6.5
18. Isaiah Likely, BLT at CLV: 4.1-2.9-33-0.30 = 6.5
19. Noah Fant, SEA vs. BUF: 4.3-3.5-39-0.14 = 6.4
20. Dalton Schultz, HST vs. IND: 5.2-3.3-33-0.22 = 6.2
21. Pat Freiermuth, PIT vs. NYG: 4.2-3.2-33-0.19 = 6.1
22. Jonnu Smith, MIA vs. ARZ: 4.2-3.1-34-0.17 = 6.0
23. Juwan Johnson, NO at LAC: 4.8-3.1-31-0.20 = 5.9
24. Zach Ertz, WAS vs. CHI: 4.3-3.1-31-0.21 = 5.9
25. Colby Parkinson, LA vs. MIN: 4.6-3.0-29-0.19 = 5.6
26. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at DET: 3.4-2.6-24-0.14 = 4.6
27. Tyler Conklin, NYJ at NE: 3.7-2.5-24-0.14 = 4.5
28. Noah Gray, KC at LV: 2.9-2.3-26-0.12 = 4.5
29. Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR at DEN: 2.8-2.1-20-0.13 = 3.8
30. Austin Hooper, NE vs. NYJ: 3.0-2.0-19-0.12 = 3.7
31. Grant Calcaterra, PHI at CIN: 2.5-1.9-20-0.10 = 3.6
32. Josh Whyle, TEN at DET: 2.5-1.8-17-0.11 = 3.3
33. Foster Moreau, NO at LAC: 1.9-1.5-17-0.11 = 3.1
34. Mike Gesicki, CIN vs. PHI: 2.2-1.6-16-0.10 = 3.0
35. Erick All Jr., CIN vs. PHI: 2.2-1.7-15-0.10 = 3.0
36. Lucas Krull, DEN vs. CAR: 2.4-1.6-15-0.10 = 2.9
37. Theo Johnson, NYG at PIT: 2.0-1.4-15-0.09 = 2.7
38. Tommy Tremble, CAR at DEN: 1.9-1.4-13-0.09 = 2.5
39. Darnell Washington, PIT vs. NYG: 1.8-1.3-12-0.09 = 2.4
40. Dawson Knox, BUF at SEA: 1.8-1.2-12-0.11 = 2.4

Previous FTN Staff Predictions for the World Series