Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 17

This Christmas should be a fun one for football fans with four playoff teams in the Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens and Texans playing on the holiday. It’s a bit less fun for the fantasy football writers who have to finish their projections and write their start and sit columns by Tuesday ahead of the unusual Wednesday games.

But for readers hoping for some lineup help in their fantasy championship matchups, never fear. I burned the midnight oil to bring you my Week 17 start and sit column with its traditional leaning on my comprehensive weekly fantasy projections that rank players and provide discrete fantasy values. It can help you set your lineups with confidence no matter your format or depth of fantasy league. So read on, and enjoy your holiday.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher-ranked players over my lower-ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 17

Quarterbacks

6. Baker Mayfield, TB vs. CAR: 33.3-258-2.03-1.00 and 2.7-17-0.11 = 18.7
7. Sam Darnold, MIN vs. GB: 30.6-251-1.99-0.73 and 3.5-12-0.09 = 18.2
8. Jared Goff, DET at SF: 31.5-273-1.92-0.66 and 1.6-3-0.05 = 17.9
9. Patrick Mahomes, KC at PIT: 36.3-241-1.85-0.73 and 2.9-15-0.08 = 17.5
10. Matthew Stafford, LA vs. ARZ: 32.6-248-1.97-0.55 and 1.5-2-0.03 = 17.0
11. Brock Purdy, SF vs. DET: 31.2-259-1.44-0.75 and 2.8-14-0.14 = 16.8

12. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at CLV

37.1-267-1.74-0.71 and 1.3-4-0.02 = 16.7

You may be tempted to bench Tagovailoa for fear of the December weather on the road in Cleveland. But Cleveland has a forecast high of 56 degrees Sunday. And Tagovailoa has averaged an effectively identical 1.54 versus 1.57 passing touchdowns and 16.1 versus 16.2 fantasy points at home and on the road in his career. Last season’s playoff loss in Kansas City remains front of mind. But I wouldn’t put too much weight on a few poor performances in cold when some of the bigger-sample trends suggest that Tagovailoa is fine outside of Miami.

13. Drake Maye, NE vs. LAC

33.8-231-1.49-1.05 and 3.8-31-0.08 = 16.7

Maye has run for 377 yards in 10 starts this season. That has him on a full-season pace of 641 rushing yards, a total that would have ranked third among quarterbacks, just between Justin Fields (657) and Jalen Hurts (605) last year. He may not have much help around him on the Patriots. But Maye plays a fantasy-friendly style of quarterback.

14. Russell Wilson, PIT vs. KC

30.1-239-1.60-0.51 and 3.2-8-0.13 = 16.5

Wilson has averaged more than 100 more passing yards per game with George Pickens playing than when Pickens has been inactive this season. Is that a real trend or just a small sample quirk for quarterback that only has nine starts to split statistically? I don’t know, but I would certainly feel better starting Wilson in a two-quarterback league or DFS with Pickens expected to return this Christmas.

15. Kyler Murray, ARZ at LA: 31.1-223-1.18-0.62 and 4.4-32-0.15 = 16.5
16. Caleb Williams, CHI vs. SEA: 33.3-216-1.33-0.33 and 4.5-27-0.06 = 16.4
17. Jordan Love, GB at MIN: 29.7-243-1.75-0.80 and 1.7-6-0.09 = 16.2
18. C.J. Stroud, HST vs. BLT: 33.6-237-1.58-0.74 and 2.6-12-0.05 = 15.8
19. Bo Nix, DEN at CIN: 34.0-217-1.46-0.75 and 3.8-17-0.16 = 15.7
20. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ at BUF: 35.5-235-1.63-0.53 and 1.2-6-0.01 = 15.5
21. Justin Herbert, LAC at NE: 29.5-222-1.24-0.24 and 3.7-15-0.08 = 15.4
22. Anthony Richardson, IND at NYG: 26.8-184-0.88-1.07 and 6.5-39-0.38 = 14.9
23. Geno Smith, SEA at CHI: 35.1-262-1.19-0.98 and 1.6-8-0.06 = 14.5
24. Mason Rudolph, TEN at JAX: 33.7-231-1.35-1.15 and 2.3-9-0.06 = 13.6
25. Michael Penix Jr., ATL at WAS: 33.8-239-1.22-0.91 and 2.1-6-0.06 = 13.6

Running Backs

12. Bucky Irving, TB vs. CAR: 14.0-77-0.56 and 2.9-2.7-21-0.07 = 14.9
13. Kyren Williams, LA vs. ARZ: 19.1-78-0.78 and 2.1-1.7-10-0.09 = 14.9
14. Aaron Jones Sr., MIN vs. GB: 16.2-73-0.55 and 3.2-2.6-22-0.14 = 14.9
15. Kenneth Walker III, SEA at CHI: 13.5-51-0.55 and 4.2-3.7-24-0.10 = 13.2
16. James Cook, BUF vs. NYJ: 11.7-60-0.47 and 3.2-2.7-22-0.13 = 13.1
17. Brian Robinson Jr., WAS vs. ATL: 14.5-63-0.61 and 2.1-1.7-14-0.06 = 12.5
18. Rico Dowdle, DAL at PHI: 16.2-77-0.26 and 2.7-2.2-14-0.10 = 12.4
19. Breece Hall, NYJ at BUF: 13.2-55-0.34 and 4.0-3.0-26-0.12 = 12.4
20. Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG vs. IND: 12.3-56-0.32 and 4.1-2.9-22-0.10 = 11.8
21. J.K. Dobbins, LAC at NE: 13.0-63-0.39 and 2.9-2.4-12-0.06 = 11.4
22. Jerome Ford, CLV vs. MIA: 11.2-57-0.24 and 3.5-3.0-19-0.08 = 10.9
23. Alexander Mattison, LV at NO: 12.1-40-0.45 and 3.3-2.5-21-0.09 = 10.7
24. D’Andre Swift, CHI vs. SEA: 14.2-54-0.38 and 2.3-1.9-17-0.04 = 10.6
25. Jaylen Warren, PIT vs. KC: 10.5-45-0.23 and 4.0-3.2-25-0.08 = 10.4
26. Tony Pollard, TEN at JAX: 12.7-54-0.27 and 3.7-2.7-16-0.06 = 10.3
27. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. LAC: 13.0-51-0.44 and 2.3-1.9-10-0.07 = 10.1
28. Rachaad White, TB vs. CAR: 7.7-32-0.21 and 3.8-3.4-26-0.21 = 10.1
29. Najee Harris, PIT vs. KC: 13.6-53-0.38 and 1.8-1.4-11-0.03 = 9.6
30. Tyjae Spears, TEN at JAX: 8.1-31-0.27 and 4.0-3.3-26-0.10 = 9.5
31. Travis Etienne Jr., JAX vs. TEN: 9.4-37-0.26 and 3.5-2.7-17-0.06 = 8.8

32. Isiah Pacheco, KC at PIT

10.9-45-0.34 and 1.9-1.6-10-0.05 = 8.7

Pacheco’s snap share increase from 37% in his first game back to 46% in his second game back from his early-season broken fibula seemed to point to a return to his former featured workload. But the traditional Chiefs starter regressed to 37% and 35% snap shares the last two weeks. And in full in the last four weeks, Pacheco has split work nearly evenly with 48 touches versus 42 for his veteran teammate Kareem Hunt. That small advantage puts Pacheco on the right side of the flex starter baseline in Week 16. But he barely clears it. You might have better options with some recent workload increasers like Jerome Ford, Alexander Mattison and Tyjae Spears.

33. Tank Bigsby, JAX vs. TEN

10.3-50-0.40 and 1.2-0.8-7-0.03 = 8.6

After alternating injuries for much of the season, Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr. have finally overlapped the last four weeks. And Etienne has bested Bigsby in snap share in three of the four. The exception? The lone Jaguars win in that stretch, coincidentally over their Titans division rival that they play again this week. I’m more inclined to start the sophomore back against one of the just six opponents they could face with a worse DVOA than they have. But it’s still difficult to trust Bigsby in fantasy with his lack of involvement in the passing game and with Mac Jones as his quarterback.

34. Kareem Hunt, KC at PIT: 10.5-39-0.44 and 1.9-1.4-10-0.06 = 8.6
35. Ameer Abdullah, LV at NO: 6.0-26-0.19 and 3.9-3.3-21-0.16 = 8.4
36. Javonte Williams, DEN at CIN: 7.2-26-0.25 and 4.6-3.4-21-0.07 = 8.3
37. Kendre Miller, NO vs. LV: 9.3-38-0.22 and 2.1-1.6-12-0.05 = 7.4
38. Antonio Gibson, NE vs. LAC: 7.5-33-0.18 and 2.3-1.9-16-0.05 = 7.3
39. Patrick Taylor Jr., SF vs. DET: 10.0-39-0.31 and 1.9-1.2-8-0.03 = 7.3
40. Raheem Mostert, MIA at CLV: 6.7-27-0.28 and 2.4-1.9-15-0.07 = 7.2
41. Zach Charbonnet, SEA at CHI: 5.9-25-0.28 and 2.7-2.2-15-0.05 = 7.1
42. Justice Hill, BLT at HST: 2.9-14-0.08 and 3.4-2.8-25-0.12 = 6.4
43. Audric Estime, DEN at CIN: 8.1-36-0.21 and 0.9-0.7-5-0.02 = 5.9
44. Tyler Allgeier, ATL at WAS: 7.2-33-0.22 and 1.0-0.9-7-0.02 = 5.8
45. Gus Edwards, LAC at NE: 7.7-29-0.32 and 0.6-0.5-3-0.01 = 5.5
46. Ty Johnson, BUF vs. NYJ: 3.0-14-0.08 and 2.1-1.5-18-0.09 = 5.0
47. Devin Singletary, NYG vs. IND: 5.8-23-0.17 and 1.4-1.2-8-0.03 = 4.9
48. Ray Davis, BUF vs. NYJ: 5.0-20-0.14 and 0.7-0.6-6-0.03 = 3.9
49. Cam Akers, MIN vs. GB: 6.3-24-0.16 and 0.3-0.2-2-0.01 = 3.7
50. Jeremy McNichols, WAS vs. ATL: 3.0-13-0.10 and 1.8-1.4-8-0.04 = 3.6
51. Jamaal Williams, NO vs. LV: 3.8-14-0.12 and 1.5-1.2-7-0.03 = 3.6
52. Roschon Johnson, CHI vs. SEA: 3.4-12-0.18 and 0.9-0.7-5-0.02 = 3.3
53. Michael Carter, ARZ at LA: 3.9-17-0.10 and 0.8-0.6-4-0.02 = 3.2
54. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI vs. DAL: 2.8-12-0.09 and 1.2-0.9-7-0.02 = 3.1
55. Braelon Allen, NYJ at BUF: 3.8-14-0.10 and 1.0-0.7-6-0.02 = 3.1

Wide Receivers

16. DJ Moore, CHI vs. SEA: 9.2-6.3-62-0.43 = 13.1
17. Tyreek Hill, MIA at CLV: 9.1-5.8-70-0.49 = 12.9
18. Deebo Samuel Sr., SF vs. DET: 6.8-4.3-57-0.26 = 12.9
19. Jauan Jennings, SF vs. DET: 7.9-5.4-72-0.44 = 12.5
20. Courtland Sutton, DEN at CIN: 8.6-5.1-67-0.49 = 12.2
21. Zay Flowers, BLT at HST: 8.0-5.2-74-0.32 = 12.1
22. Ladd McConkey, LAC at NE: 7.2-5.3-74-0.33 = 12.0
23. Jordan Addison, MIN vs. GB: 6.9-4.6-64-0.50 = 11.9
24. Jerry Jeudy, CLV vs. MIA: 7.8-4.9-73-0.30 = 11.6
25. George Pickens, PIT vs. KC: 7.4-4.5-70-0.36 = 11.4
26. Jakobi Meyers, LV at NO: 8.3-5.5-64-0.31 = 11.1
27. DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. DAL: 6.8-5.1-61-0.38 = 11.0
28. Adam Thielen, CAR at TB: 7.3-5.4-62-0.35 = 11.0
29. Garrett Wilson, NYJ at BUF: 8.3-5.3-59-0.38 = 10.8
30. Jameson Williams, DET at SF: 5.8-3.6-65-0.29 = 10.7
31. DK Metcalf, SEA at CHI: 7.1-4.3-63-0.34 = 10.5
32. Keenan Allen, CHI vs. SEA: 8.6-4.9-55-0.42 = 10.4
33. Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. NYJ: 6.8-5.3-58-0.28 = 10.1
34. Xavier Worthy, KC at PIT: 7.1-4.1-46-0.37 = 10.0
35. Jayden Reed, GB at MIN: 4.7-3.5-52-0.30 = 9.8
36. Darnell Mooney, ATL at WAS: 6.6-4.0-61-0.27 = 9.7
37. Calvin Ridley, TEN at JAX: 7.2-3.7-55-0.31 = 9.5
38. Cooper Kupp, LA vs. ARZ: 6.8-4.6-48-0.37 = 9.4
39. Marvin Harrison Jr., ARZ at LA: 7.2-3.7-51-0.39 = 9.3

40. Josh Downs, IND at NYG

6.6-4.3-51-0.30 = 9.0

Downs has a 26.3% target share in the games he’s played this season. That’s the 16^th-highest rate among wide receivers with 10 or more games played. With his passing inaccuracy and rushing preference, Anthony Richardson is the worst quarterback for a wide receiver in fantasy. But Downs is just enough of a featured target to clear the flex starter benchmark anyway.

41. Rome Odunze, CHI vs. SEA

6.4-3.4-47-0.31 = 8.3

Caleb Williams had a productive fantasy Week 16 with 334 yards and two touchdowns. But that success did not cure his talented rookie Odunze’s issue with uncatchable targets. The top-10 draft pick had suffered the lowest uncatchable air yard rate among regular wide receivers prior to last Sunday’s Lions loss. And he saw that rate increase to 66.1% with Week 16 included. Odunze remains a fantasy sit until his circumstances improve.

42. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG vs. IND: 8.4-5.3-40-0.25 = 8.2
43. Jalen Coker, CAR at TB: 5.6-3.4-48-0.25 = 8.0
44. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, NO vs. LV: 5.5-2.8-50-0.25 = 8.0
45. Christian Watson, GB at MIN: 4.7-2.7-48-0.27 = 7.8
46. DeAndre Hopkins, KC at PIT: 4.6-3.3-38-0.36 = 7.6
47. Quentin Johnston, LAC at NE: 5.7-3.1-40-0.33 = 7.6
48. Romeo Doubs, GB at MIN: 4.9-3.1-42-0.29 = 7.5
49. Marquise Brown, KC at PIT: 6.4-3.6-41-0.25 = 7.4
50. Jalen McMillan, TB vs. CAR: 5.5-3.2-39-0.29 = 7.3
51. Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL at WAS: 5.3-3.8-41-0.15 = 7.2
52. Kayshon Boutte, NE vs. LAC: 5.7-3.3-43-0.21 = 7.2
53. Parker Washington, JAX vs. TEN: 5.4-3.4-40-0.21 = 6.9
54. DeMario Douglas, NE vs. LAC: 5.2-4.0-37-0.17 = 6.9
55. Marvin Mims Jr., DEN at CIN: 3.9-2.6-35-0.19 = 6.6
56. Joshua Palmer, LAC at NE: 4.7-2.8-41-0.18 = 6.6
57. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN at JAX: 4.2-2.3-35-0.29 = 6.4
58. Michael Pittman Jr., IND at NYG: 5.4-3.2-36-0.17 = 6.2
59. Rashod Bateman, BLT at HST: 3.8-2.3-37-0.23 = 6.2
60. Elijah Moore, CLV vs. MIA: 5.7-3.5-33-0.17 = 6.1
61. Michael Wilson, ARZ at LA: 4.1-2.7-34-0.20 = 6.0
62. Devaughn Vele, DEN at CIN: 4.1-2.9-34-0.19 = 5.9
63. Brandin Cooks, DAL at PHI: 4.5-2.6-30-0.26 = 5.9
64. Malik Washington, MIA at CLV: 4.3-2.8-29-0.18 = 5.5
65. David Moore, CAR at TB: 4.5-2.6-30-0.20 = 5.5
66. Amari Cooper, BUF vs. NYJ: 3.5-2.2-31-0.20 = 5.4
67. Allen Lazard, NYJ at BUF: 3.8-2.3-30-0.20 = 5.4

Tight Ends

4. Jonnu Smith, MIA at CLV: 7.7-6.2-65-0.42 = 12.1
5. Mark Andrews, BLT at HST: 5.5-4.6-51-0.50 = 10.4
6. Hunter Henry, NE vs. LAC: 7.4-5.1-52-0.34 = 9.8
7. Sam LaPorta, DET at SF: 6.0-4.2-52-0.41 = 9.7
8. David Njoku, CLV vs. MIA: 7.7-5.1-40-0.42 = 9.1
9. Travis Kelce, KC at PIT: 7.1-5.2-45-0.26 = 8.6
10. Tucker Kraft, GB at MIN: 4.3-3.2-43-0.30 = 7.7
11. T.J. Hockenson, MIN vs. GB: 5.5-3.9-42-0.20 = 7.3

12. Cade Otton, TB vs. CAR

5.4-3.7-37-0.30 = 7.3

Otton missed last Sunday night’s game with a knee injury. But as recently as Saturday, the Bucs had listed him as a game-time decision. Head coach Todd Bowles told reporters Monday that it was too soon to assess Otton’s chances for this Sunday. But hopefully his proximity to a return last week bodes well. Check the news closer to the weekend to see if you can return the breakout tight end to your fantasy lineups.

13. Dalton Schultz, HST vs. BLT

6.1-3.9-39-0.23 = 7.2

The Texans’ heavy investment at wide receiver in the offseason has been bad news for Schultz in fantasy. The veteran tight end has played the same 15 games this year that he did in 2023, and his numbers are down across the board — he’s slipped from 59 to 48 catches, 635 to 482 yards and five to two touchdowns. But with Tank Dell poised to miss the rest of the season with another unfortunate knee injury, the Texans are suddenly thin at wide receiver. And Schultz is a likely fantasy beneficiary. I’m projecting him for a boosted 19.0% target share that is tied for 11th highest among tight ends in Week 17. And chances are strong that he’ll end up a TE1 in my rankings by the end of this week with both Otton and David Njoku ranked above him and dealing with injuries. The trick will be deciding if you should start Schultz by 4:30pm tomorrow when the Texans play the Ravens.

14. Jake Ferguson, DAL at PHI: 6.1-4.3-37-0.18 = 6.9
15. Chig Okonkwo, TEN at JAX: 5.3-4.0-37-0.19 = 6.8
16. Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. NYJ: 6.0-3.5-35-0.21 = 6.5
17. Zach Ertz, WAS vs. ATL: 4.7-3.3-32-0.26 = 6.4
18. Austin Hooper, NE vs. LAC: 4.2-3.2-36-0.20 = 6.4
19. Brenton Strange, JAX vs. TEN: 4.5-3.4-33-0.22 = 6.3
20. Juwan Johnson, NO vs. LV: 4.0-3.1-33-0.22 = 6.1
21. Isaiah Likely, BLT at HST: 3.6-2.6-30-0.27 = 6.0
22. Pat Freiermuth, PIT vs. KC: 3.5-3.0-30-0.22 = 5.8
23. Noah Fant, SEA at CHI: 4.4-3.2-33-0.13 = 5.7
24. Kyle Pitts, ATL at WAS: 4.0-2.5-32-0.19 = 5.6
25. Mike Gesicki, CIN vs. DEN: 3.7-2.9-31-0.18 = 5.6
26. Foster Moreau, NO vs. LV: 3.3-2.4-30-0.23 = 5.6
27. Noah Gray, KC at PIT: 2.9-2.3-26-0.19 = 4.9
28. Cole Kmet, CHI vs. SEA: 2.7-2.3-24-0.16 = 4.5
29. Tyler Conklin, NYJ at BUF: 3.6-2.4-23-0.14 = 4.3
30. Tyler Higbee, LA vs. ARZ: 3.3-2.2-22-0.15 = 4.2
31. Grant Calcaterra, PHI vs. DAL: 2.4-1.9-22-0.11 = 3.8
32. Tommy Tremble, CAR at TB: 2.8-2.0-19-0.14 = 3.8
33. Stone Smartt, LAC at NE: 2.4-1.8-20-0.10 = 3.5
34. Daniel Bellinger, NYG vs. IND: 2.4-1.9-19-0.09 = 3.4
35. AJ Barner, SEA at CHI: 2.2-1.6-15-0.13 = 3.1
36. Josh Whyle, TEN at JAX: 2.1-1.6-15-0.10 = 2.9
37. Michael Mayer, LV at NO: 2.3-1.5-14-0.10 = 2.7
38. Jordan Akins, CLV vs. MIA: 2.1-1.4-14-0.08 = 2.6
39. Lucas Krull, DEN at CIN: 1.9-1.4-13-0.07 = 2.4
40. Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR at TB: 1.6-1.2-13-0.08 = 2.4
41. Adam Trautman, DEN at CIN: 1.6-1.1-13-0.09 = 2.4
42. Josh Oliver, MIN vs. GB: 1.4-1.1-12-0.09 = 2.3
43. Dawson Knox, BUF vs. NYJ: 1.5-1.0-13-0.08 = 2.3
44. Hayden Hurst, LAC at NE: 1.8-1.2-11-0.08 = 2.2