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Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 6

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What’s worse than the Week 2 injuries and the Week 5 byes? The Week 6 injuries and byes! It’s been a full-time job just to keep the declared-out fantasy football players, from Michael Pittman Jr. to Cordarrelle Patterson, Derek Carr, Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew II all out of my rankings this week.

But I’ve powered through to bring you a Week 6 start and sit column with my comprehensive weekly fantasy projections that rank players and provide discrete values that you can use to set your lineups no matter your format or depth of fantasy league. Read on for some help with your injury and bye fallout.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end, and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 6

Quarterbacks

6. Dak Prescott, DAL vs. DET: 36.5-272-1.95-0.77 and 2.2-9-0.12 = 18.8
7. Kyler Murray, ARZ at GB: 31.8-219-1.34-0.57 and 4.1-44-0.14 = 18.2

8. Baker Mayfield, TB at NO

32.0-237-1.70-0.58 and 3.1-17-0.16 = 17.8

I suspected that Mayfield’s 289-yard, 4-touchdown opener owed a lot to a Commanders opponent that ranked last in pass defense DVOA in 2023 and remains bottom six through the first five weeks this season. But the veteran journeyman has produced two more three-touchdown games the last two weeks against modestly better DVOA defenses in the Eagles (23rd) and Falcons (22nd). At this point, I think you have to start the quarterback leading the league with 13 total touches.

9. Geno Smith, SEA vs. SF

37.6-276-1.32-0.75 and 2.9-21-0.06 = 17.3

Smith may owe some of his position-leading 199 pass attempts to pass-promoting gamescripts, in particular in a two-touchdown loss to the Lions in Week 4. But the Seahawks have jumped from a last-place average of 58.5 plays per game in 2023 to 64.4 plays per game this season, tied for seventh most in football. New OC Ryan Grubb seems to push pace, and now Smith has the volume to pair with his excellent efficiency.

10. Jordan Love, GB vs. ARZ

33.7-250-1.89-0.91 and 2.1-9-0.09 = 17.2

GREEN BAY, WI - OCTOBER 03: Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) warms up during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lambeau Field on October 3, 2021 in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)
GREEN BAY, WI – OCTOBER 03: Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) warms up during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lambeau Field on October 3, 2021 in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Love’s more-than-halving from 54 pass attempts in Week 4 to just 26 in Week 5 was regression personified. But the talented Packers passer continues to demonstrate the most important thing for his fantasy value in his continued health coming off his Week 1 knee sprain. With at least one of his top receivers Romeo Doubs returning from a team suspension this week, Love is one of the best bets to throw two touchdowns at the position.

11. Brock Purdy, SF at SEA

30.0-263-1.50-0.69 and 3.3-16-0.07 = 17.2

Purdy may be tied for 13th with a modest six passing touchdowns this season. But he’s tied for first with 18 end zone targets. His touchdown luck will improve. Keep starting him in fantasy.

12. Anthony Richardson, IND at TEN

28.8-222-1.07-1.15 and 5.7-38-0.38 = 16.9

On one hand, Richardson has held onto a top-five average of 0.60 fantasy points per play this season. But on the other, he has exited three of his eight professional starts early with an injury. And that latter fact is bleeding into my modest 28.8 projected pass attempts for him in Week 6. Consider your own appetite for risk if he plays and you need to start either him or a C.J. Stroud/Kirk Cousins type.

13. C.J. Stroud, HST at NE

34.3-271-1.34-0.52 and 2.2-10-0.12 = 16.9

You know the drill by this point. Stroud remains one of the most efficient passers in football. But his modest 68 rushing yards remain a outsized penalty for typical fantasy scoring and knock him from his presumed QB1 perch.

14. Justin Fields, PIT at LV

27.6-194-1.16-0.52 and 7.4-29-0.38 = 16.5

Fields has been a roller coaster in my rankings the last few weeks, and it’s because I cannot nail down his run rate. The former top Bears pick ran 10-plus times in Weeks 1 and 4 for 50-plus yards. But he bookended that latter outburst with a pair of six-rush days with 33 total rushing yards in those two games. My attempt to middle those numbers dropped Fields to high-end QB2 status for Week 6. But he may be the most likely quarterback to run for a touchdown every week. His ceiling remains high.

15. Kirk Cousins, ATL at CAR

36.9-280-1.66-0.85 and 0.8-1-0.04 = 16.5

ATLANTA, GA Ð SEPTEMBER 29:  Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) throws a pass during the NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons on September 29th, 2024 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.  (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)
ATLANTA, GA Ð SEPTEMBER 29: Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) throws a pass during the NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons on September 29th, 2024 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

Cousins’ 38.9 pass attempts per game in 2023 had him on pace for a position-leading 661 pass attempts before his Achilles injury. But I believed much of that inflated total was a product of Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell’s pass-promoting offensive scheme. At least until last Thursday. That 58-pass outburst bumped Cousins up to fifth in pass attempts in 2024. He may not run like an increasing number of fantasy QB1s. But Cousins’ passing volume and efficiency have him at least close to the QB1 benchmark.

16. Trevor Lawrence, JAX at CHI: 33.6-237-1.34-0.67 and 2.0-11-0.11 = 15.2
17. Daniel Jones, NYG vs. CIN: 33.9-217-1.19-0.68 and 5.0-16-0.22 = 15.0
18. Andy Dalton, CAR vs. ATL: 36.1-241-1.52-0.72 and 1.8-4-0.03 = 14.8
19. Jared Goff, DET at DAL: 34.0-263-1.25-0.71 and 1.6-2-0.05 = 14.6
20. Justin Herbert, LAC at DEN: 31.2-209-1.44-0.50 and 2.7-7-0.09 = 14.4
21. Drake Maye, NE vs. HST: 31.6-204-1.17-0.79 and 3.5-19-0.15 = 14.0
22. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ vs. BUF: 35.8-220-1.47-0.79 and 1.6-6-0.04 = 13.9
23. Caleb Williams, CHI vs. JAX: 32.5-212-1.20-0.78 and 3.0-16-0.09 = 13.9

Running Backs

13. Joe Mixon, HST at NE: 13.8-58-0.55 and 3.3-2.6-19-0.11 = 13.0
14. Brian Robinson Jr., WAS at BLT: 14.6-63-0.60 and 2.4-1.9-16-0.07 = 12.8
15. Tony Pollard, TEN vs. IND: 13.7-57-0.45 and 4.1-3.3-21-0.10 = 12.8
16. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. HST: 14.4-64-0.42 and 4.1-3.1-17-0.09 = 12.7
17. D’Andre Swift, CHI vs. JAX: 14.6-56-0.48 and 3.4-2.7-22-0.07 = 12.5
18. Josh Jacobs, GB vs. ARZ: 14.4-65-0.42 and 2.8-2.1-16-0.06 = 12.0
19. David Montgomery, DET at DAL: 13.7-60-0.67 and 1.5-1.2-10-0.03 = 11.9
20. Najee Harris, PIT at LV: 16.7-61-0.40 and 3.2-2.4-18-0.06 = 11.9
21. Zack Moss, CIN at NYG: 10.8-44-0.42 and 3.9-3.0-23-0.12 = 11.4
22. Rico Dowdle, DAL vs. DET: 14.1-58-0.34 and 2.7-2.1-16-0.09 = 11.0
23. Javonte Williams, DEN vs. LAC: 11.9-44-0.31 and 4.3-3.5-23-0.10 = 10.9

24. Travis Etienne Jr., JAX at CHI

10.4-44-0.35 and 3.9-3.0-21-0.08 = 10.6

Etienne may owe his lingering shoulder injury to his drop from 69-72% snap shares the first three weeks to 52% and 38% shares the last two weeks and to his sophomore teammate Tank Bigsby’s first ever team-leading share in Week 5 (40%). But Bigsby also leads regular running backs with his 8.0 yards per attempt, 6.5 yards after contact per attempt, 47.1% avoided tackle rate, and 17.6% explosive run rate (15-plus yards). And if he continues to play like the best back in football, Bigsby will eat into Etienne’s traditional RB1 workload whether the veteran is healthy or not.

25. Alexander Mattison, LV vs. PIT

12.0-47-0.36 and 2.6-1.9-15-0.08 = 9.8

Mattison may owe his jump from a 36% snap share in Week 4 to a 57% share in Week 5 to his teammate Zamir White’s absence for a hamstring injury. But Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce also told reporters that Mattison deserved more work as White produced the worst rushing DVOA rate at the position over the first month. Even assuming White returns in Week 6, I believe Mattison is the fantasy starter.

26. Rachaad White, TB at NO

10.2-39-0.24 and 3.4-2.9-23-0.11 = 9.6

TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 06: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Back Rachaad White (29) carries the ball during the regular season game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on November 06, 2022 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)
TAMPA, FL – NOVEMBER 06: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Back Rachaad White (29) carries the ball during the regular season game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on November 06, 2022 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Fantasy players may crave a full-blown Bucky Irving promotion. But the latter’s recent workload bump has not made him the No. 1 Bucs back. White has outsnapped his rookie teammate 58% and 64% to 42% and 43% the last two weeks. And White’s top seven running back total of 17 catches keeps him in the RB2/3 range for fantasy.

27. Jerome Ford, CLV at PHI

10.3-46-0.22 and 3.7-3.0-17-0.09 = 9.6

At least until Nick Chubb returns, Ford’s workloads seem likely to ebb and flow with the Browns’ score differential. He’s averaged 72% snap shares in the four Browns losses versus just a 44% snap share in their lone victory. Fortunately for Ford in fantasy, his offense is historically terrible! Count on another multi-score Browns deficit in Philadelphia this Sunday and another 12-plus touches for the sophomore back.

28. Chase Brown, CIN at NYG

8.2-40-0.23 and 2.5-2.0-14-0.09 = 8.3

Brown has more than doubled his early-season standard of between three and seven carries with 15 and 12 carries the last two weeks. But the talented sophomore has not seen a corresponding jump in his snap share, which has landed between 20-40% every week this season. You can start Brown in fantasy in a presumed plus matchup in New York. But he remains the No. 2 Bengals back behind Zack Moss.

29. Devin Singletary, NYG vs. CIN

9.7-40-0.27 and 2.2-1.8-12-0.04 = 8.1

After an impressive 130-yard debut as an injury-promoted starter in Week 5, rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. is up to 3.0 yards before contact per attempt this season. That is third highest among regular running backs and more than three times Singletary’s 0.9 average yards before contact. Is there some matchup small sample noise in that split. Probably! But I still wouldn’t expect Singletary to return to his previous 68-79% snap share standard. You can flex him in Week 6. But Singletary’s fantasy starter status is tenuous.

30. Bucky Irving, TB at NO

8.0-41-0.26 and 2.1-1.7-12-0.05 = 8.0

Rachaad White’s 59-yard Week 5 scamper narrowed the chasm between the bulk of his and Irving’s efficiency metrics. And on the other side, we’re left with what looks like a commonplace 60/40 backfield split in the veteran’s favor. You can start Irving in a bye-week pinch. But the rookie may be a bit further from a No. 1 backfield role than fantasy players would prefer.

31. Antonio Gibson, NE vs. HST

7.7-37-0.17 and 2.6-2.1-18-0.07 = 7.9

Gibson played a season-high 47% snap share in Week 5 after his head coach Jerod Mayo told reporters he would bench normal starter Rhamondre Stevenson for his four fumbles the first four weeks. But Stevenson was back in after the opening series and continued to pace his backfield in snaps and touches. Expect the status quo to continue in Week 6, and leave Gibson on your fantasy benches except in your deeper leagues.

32. Trey Sermon, IND at TEN

9.8-39-0.39 and 1.7-1.3-8-0.03 = 7.9

Colts head coach Shane Steichen was true to his word that he would use a running back committee with Jonathan Taylor out in Week 5. Sermon dominated his backfield with 15.3 fantasy points, buoyed by a touchdown and six catches. But the veteran saw a much narrower 59% versus 41% snap share advantage over Tyler Goodson. Even if Taylor misses another week, you may have better fantasy options than Sermon.

33. Tyjae Spears, TEN vs. IND: 6.5-26-0.16 and 3.5-2.9-20-0.08 = 7.5
34. Tank Bigsby, JAX at CHI: 8.5-47-0.29 and 0.8-0.6-5-0.02 = 7.3
35. Austin Ekeler, WAS at BLT: 5.4-25-0.17 and 3.0-2.4-21-0.08 = 7.3
36. Zach Charbonnet, SEA vs. SF: 5.5-22-0.18 and 3.6-2.9-20-0.08 = 7.2
37. Justice Hill, BLT vs. WAS: 3.3-15-0.09 and 3.8-3.0-26-0.10 = 6.7
38. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN vs. LAC: 6.3-26-0.17 and 2.8-2.4-11-0.09 = 6.5
39. Braelon Allen, NYJ vs. BUF: 7.4-32-0.20 and 1.8-1.4-10-0.05 = 6.4
40. Miles Sanders, CAR vs. ATL: 6.2-25-0.17 and 3.0-2.2-13-0.05 = 6.2
41. Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG vs. CIN: 7.3-34-0.16 and 1.6-1.2-9-0.04 = 6.1
42. Tyler Allgeier, ATL at CAR: 7.5-33-0.18 and 1.4-1.2-9-0.03 = 6.1
43. Roschon Johnson, CHI vs. JAX: 6.9-28-0.28 and 1.2-1.0-7-0.03 = 5.7
44. Zamir White, LV vs. PIT: 8.5-32-0.18 and 1.2-0.9-6-0.02 = 5.4
45. D’Onta Foreman, CLV at PHI: 7.5-29-0.26 and 0.8-0.6-4-0.02 = 5.3
46. Gus Edwards, LAC at DEN: 7.6-29-0.29 and 0.5-0.4-3-0.01 = 5.2
47. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. DET: 5.6-20-0.15 and 1.6-1.2-8-0.04 = 4.5
48. Jamaal Williams, NO vs. TB: 5.7-21-0.19 and 1.2-0.9-5-0.02 = 4.4
49. Emanuel Wilson, GB vs. ARZ: 5.7-25-0.13 and 1.2-0.9-6-0.03 = 4.4
50. Tyler Goodson, IND at TEN: 4.9-21-0.13 and 1.3-1.0-7-0.03 = 4.2
51. Cam Akers, HST at NE: 5.6-21-0.16 and 1.1-0.8-5-0.03 = 4.2
52. Dare Ogunbowale, HST at NE: 1.8-6-0.04 and 2.3-1.9-16-0.06 = 3.8

Wide Receivers

13. Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. BUF: 10.3-6.2-65-0.41 = 12.1
14. Mike Evans, TB at NO: 7.3-4.5-62-0.52 = 11.6
15. DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. CLV: 7.5-5.4-68-0.35 = 11.6
16. Tee Higgins, CIN at NYG: 8.2-4.9-63-0.45 = 11.4
17. Brian Thomas Jr., JAX at CHI: 6.7-4.3-66-0.34 = 11.1
18. Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. PIT: 7.8-5.3-61-0.37 = 11.0
19. Brandon Aiyuk, SF at SEA: 7.1-4.4-68-0.32 = 10.9
20. Terry McLaurin, WAS at BLT: 7.7-4.8-64-0.33 = 10.7
21. Darnell Mooney, ATL at CAR: 7.9-4.7-62-0.34 = 10.6
22. Deebo Samuel Sr., SF at SEA: 5.9-3.8-51-0.25 = 10.6
23. Marvin Harrison Jr., ARZ at GB: 7.7-4.1-58-0.42 = 10.4
24. Zay Flowers, BLT vs. WAS: 7.6-4.9-58-0.31 = 10.3
25. Tank Dell, HST at NE: 6.7-4.2-54-0.31 = 10.2
26. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. SF: 7.7-5.4-55-0.34 = 10.2
27. Chris Olave, NO vs. TB: 7.3-4.7-61-0.26 = 10.1
28. George Pickens, PIT at LV: 6.8-4.2-62-0.27 = 10.0
29. Rashid Shaheed, NO vs. TB: 7.0-3.8-60-0.27 = 9.9
30. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG vs. CIN: 8.2-5.7-48-0.32 = 9.8
31. Khalil Shakir, BUF at NYJ: 5.4-4.5-59-0.27 = 9.8
32. Josh Downs, IND at TEN: 7.2-5.2-54-0.28 = 9.7
33. Amari Cooper, CLV at PHI: 8.2-4.0-56-0.32 = 9.6
34. Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. LAC: 8.1-4.1-54-0.34 = 9.5
35. Ladd McConkey, LAC at DEN: 7.0-4.4-53-0.34 = 9.5
36. Jameson Williams, DET at DAL: 5.9-3.3-52-0.26 = 8.9
37. Keenan Allen, CHI vs. JAX: 6.6-4.3-49-0.29 = 8.8
38. Christian Kirk, JAX at CHI: 6.3-4.0-51-0.26 = 8.6

39. Tre Tucker, LV vs. PIT

5.7-3.8-47-0.23 = 8.6

Tucker couldn’t continue his Week 3 and 4 breakout of 137 yards and a touchdown with a modest 18 yards in Week 5. But the sophomore receiver has played a tremendous 80%-plus snap share all three weeks since Davante Adams suffered his maybe-phantom hamstring injury slash asked for a trade. I am projecting Tucker for a 19.5% target share that is tied for 43rd among wide receivers in Week 6. And that volume makes him a flex play even in a difficult Steelers matchup.

40. Alec Pierce, IND at TEN

4.9-3.0-55-0.24 = 8.4

CINCINNATI, OH - AUGUST 22: Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (14) walks off the field during halftime in the game against the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals on August 22, 2024, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 22: Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (14) walks off the field during halftime in the game against the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals on August 22, 2024, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Pierce played 90% of snaps the first two weeks with Josh Downs out versus just 78% of snaps the last three weeks with Downs in. I’m assuming a similar pattern will hold with Michael Pittman poised to miss several weeks with a back injury, and that workload bump makes Pierce a comfortable flex starter.

41. Jerry Jeudy, CLV at PHI

6.2-3.8-48-0.25 = 8.2

Jeudy has not enjoyed the offensive improvements he hoped to find when he moved from the Broncos to the Browns this season. But he’s cracked the top 50 at the position in fantasy nevertheless. You can start him at flex in what will likely be another pass-promoting Browns gamescript in Philadelphia this week.

42. Allen Lazard, NYJ vs. BUF

6.2-3.6-45-0.31 = 8.1

Lazard has played between 82% and 100% of snaps all five weeks this season. Mike Williams’ improving health hasn’t stopped Aaron Rodgers from throwing to his former Packers teammate. Promoted interim coach Jeff Ulbrich surely won’t. So feel free to continue to flex Lazard unless the team trades for Davante Adams.

43. Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL at CAR

6.0-4.0-46-0.19 = 8.1

Drake London may be the biggest fantasy beneficiary of OC Zac Robinson’s and Kirk Cousins’ new Falcons offense. But all three of McCloud, London and Darnell Mooney have played 93% or more snaps in at least four of the team’s five games this season. Other teams don’t lean on their starting receivers to near that same extent, and that’s why McCloud is the rare No. 3 receiver that you can play at flex in Week 6.

44. Romeo Doubs, GB vs. ARZ

5.5-3.4-45-0.29 = 7.9

Doubs may have earned his one-game team suspension for complaining about his lack of targets. But even while he saw fewer targets, Doubs lapped his teammate Dontayvion Wicks with 73-87% versus 46-76% snap shares the first four weeks. My best guess is the two will revert to that pre-suspension split in Week 6. But my uncertainty may mean you should bench both receivers in fantasy until we see their roles this week.

45. DeMario Douglas, NE vs. HST

6.2-4.2-45-0.19 = 7.9

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - OCTOBER 29: New England Patriots wide receiver Demario Douglas (81) looks toward the ball after missing a would-be touchdown catch as mis4 defends during the game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, October 29, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)
MIAMI GARDENS, FL – OCTOBER 29: New England Patriots wide receiver Demario Douglas (81) looks toward the ball after missing a would-be touchdown catch as mis4 defends during the game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, October 29, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

The newly promoted Drake Maye almost has to be better news for his receivers in fantasy than Jacoby Brissett was. But Douglas could counterbalance that rising tide with his decline in snap share from 83% to 59% and 67% over the last two weeks as his rookie teammate Ja’Lynn Polk has shot up from 50% to 83% and 100%. I’m not sure Douglas will see Maye’s top target share in Week 6, and I would bench him in fantasy.

46. Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. SF: 5.7-3.8-46-0.23 = 7.9
47. Jalen Tolbert, DAL vs. DET: 5.6-3.7-44-0.27 = 7.8
48. Jauan Jennings, SF at SEA: 4.6-3.1-46-0.26 = 7.7
49. Quentin Johnston, LAC at DEN: 5.6-3.3-41-0.30 = 7.7
50. Calvin Ridley, TEN vs. IND: 5.8-3.2-43-0.25 = 7.6
51. Xavier Legette, CAR vs. ATL: 5.4-3.4-40-0.23 = 7.3
52. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN vs. IND: 5.2-3.2-41-0.25 = 7.2
53. Dontayvion Wicks, GB vs. ARZ: 6.1-3.0-39-0.27 = 7.0
54. Michael Wilson, ARZ at GB: 4.5-3.1-39-0.20 = 6.6
55. Joshua Palmer, LAC at DEN: 4.7-3.0-39-0.20 = 6.6
56. Gabe Davis, JAX at CHI: 4.9-2.6-39-0.20 = 6.5
57. Rome Odunze, CHI vs. JAX: 5.0-2.8-36-0.22 = 6.4
58. Rashod Bateman, BLT vs. WAS: 4.4-2.6-35-0.18 = 5.8
59. Darius Slayton, NYG vs. CIN: 3.9-2.6-36-0.15 = 5.8
60. Greg Dortch, ARZ at GB: 4.2-2.9-30-0.15 = 5.5
61. Ja’Lynn Polk, NE vs. HST: 4.7-2.6-29-0.18 = 5.3
62. Tyler Boyd, TEN vs. IND: 4.1-2.7-31-0.15 = 5.3
63. Keon Coleman, BUF at NYJ: 3.6-2.2-30-0.18 = 5.2
64. Mike Williams, NYJ vs. BUF: 3.3-2.3-31-0.16 = 5.2
65. Josh Reynolds, DEN vs. LAC: 3.5-2.2-32-0.14 = 5.1
66. Jonathan Mingo, CAR vs. ATL: 4.7-2.5-28-0.12 = 4.9
67. Elijah Moore, CLV at PHI: 4.3-2.6-26-0.15 = 4.9
68. Curtis Samuel, BUF at NYJ: 3.1-2.1-21-0.14 = 4.7
69. Noah Brown, WAS at BLT: 3.0-2.0-28-0.13 = 4.5
70. Andrei Iosivas, CIN at NYG: 3.4-2.0-23-0.19 = 4.5
71. KaVontae Turpin, DAL vs. DET: 2.7-1.7-20-0.13 = 4.0
72. Van Jefferson, PIT at LV: 3.5-2.0-22-0.12 = 3.8
73. Adonai Mitchell, IND at TEN: 3.4-1.6-19-0.11 = 3.8

Tight Ends

6. Trey McBride, ARZ at GB: 7.3-5.2-50-0.26 = 9.1
7. Evan Engram, JAX at CHI: 6.5-4.9-44-0.28 = 8.5

8. Tucker Kraft, GB vs. ARZ

5.3-3.8-45-0.30 = 8.2

Kraft’s 88-yard catch-and-run touchdown in Week 5 helped earn the talented sophomore a 2.21 expected touchdown surplus that is the biggest at his position this season. Expect fewer touchdowns the rest of this season. But don’t let that likely regression keep Kraft out of your fantasy lineups. The new No. 1 Packers tight end is lapping the field at his position with 11.3 average yards after the catch — and it isn’t just that one touchdown run. He’s a top 10 tight end talent in an excellent fantasy situation.

9. Dalton Kincaid, BUF at NYJ

6.2-4.4-45-0.26 = 8.2

Kincaid hasn’t made the Year 2 leap that many expected in a Bills offense without a clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver. He hasn’t even cracked 50 yards in any of his first five games. But with the slump the position is in the first month and a half, Kincaid still ties for fifth with his 17.1% target share. Continue to start him.

10. David Njoku, CLV at PHI

5.9-4.0-43-0.27 = 7.9

BALTIMORE, MD - NOVEMBER 28: Browns tight end David Njoku (85) leaps and spikes the football after a touchdown catch during the Cleveland Browns versus Baltimore Ravens NFL game at M&T Bank Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)
BALTIMORE, MD – NOVEMBER 28: Browns tight end David Njoku (85) leaps and spikes the football after a touchdown catch during the Cleveland Browns versus Baltimore Ravens NFL game at M&T Bank Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire)

Njoku missed Weeks 2-4 with an ankle injury and then left Week 5 early with a knee injury. But improbably, he practiced Wednesday and does not have an injury designation for Week 6. I was scared enough to cut his normally dominant projected tight end target share. But with the dearth of other options at the position, you will likely want to return Njoku to your fantasy lineups.

11. Kyle Pitts, ATL at CAR

5.1-3.2-39-0.21 = 6.8

I’m tempted to fully credit Pitts’ season-high eight targets and 88 yards in Week 5 to Kirk Cousins’ unsustainable 58 pass attempts. But Pitts did see his snap share spike from between 68-74% in Weeks 2-4 to 85% in Week 5 after the team told reporters they wanted to get him more involved in the offense after a quiet first month. Start Pitts in fantasy this week. Just don’t count on another seven catches.

12. Cole Kmet, CHI vs. JAX

4.2-3.4-35-0.23 = 6.6

Kmet has erased the doubt of his Week 1 snap share deficit to his new teammate Gerald Everett with dominant 77%, 81%, 90% and 84% shares the last four weeks. He may not be the definitive top 10 tight end option he was in 2023 before the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze But Kmet remains a fantasy TE1.

13. Cade Otton, TB at NO

5.0-3.4-33-0.22 = 6.3

Otton has ramped up from 5 and 0 yards in the first two weeks to 47, 52 and 44 yards the last three weeks. But the veteran has enjoyed that success while facing the Broncos, Eagles and Falcons defenses, the former two of which allowed top-five DVOA rates to tight ends and the latter of which allowed the third most targets to tight ends in 2023. I’m worried Otton could slip in Week 6, and I would bench him in fantasy.

14. Pat Freiermuth, PIT at LV

4.4-3.4-33-0.22 = 6.3

There is drama with the Steelers wide receivers, but the tight end Freiermuth has been remarkably consistent with between three and five catches and between 22 and 57 yards every week and with two touchdowns this season. That doesn’t quite clear the TE1 benchmark with a hopeful influx of returning options in Sam LaPorta, Dallas Goedert, Trey McBride, Evan Engram and David Njoku this week. But it comes close.

15. Isaiah Likely, BLT vs. WAS

3.8-2.8-32-0.27 = 6.2

BALTIMORE, MD - DECEMBER 04: Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80) makes a reception during the Denver Broncos game versus the Baltimore Ravens on December 4, 2022 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)
BALTIMORE, MD – DECEMBER 04: Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80) makes a reception during the Denver Broncos game versus the Baltimore Ravens on December 4, 2022 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

Even losing a touchdown thanks to a toe on the line in Week 1, Likely is tied for the tight end lead with three touchdowns this season. But stuck in a run-oriented Ravens offense, Likely ranks just 14th at his position with a 13.5% target share. You could start him in season-long fantasy as a bet on a touchdown. But Likely looks like a better DFS than traditional fantasy option.

16. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. BUF: 5.0-3.3-34-0.18 = 6.2
17. Dalton Schultz, HST at NE: 4.6-3.0-30-0.21 = 5.8
18. Hunter Henry, NE vs. HST: 4.2-2.8-30-0.20 = 5.6
19. Zach Ertz, WAS at BLT: 4.2-2.9-26-0.19 = 5.2
20. Mike Gesicki, CIN at NYG: 3.7-2.7-27-0.17 = 5.1
21. Mark Andrews, BLT vs. WAS: 3.3-2.3-27-0.17 = 4.9
22. Noah Fant, SEA vs. SF: 3.1-2.3-25-0.11 = 4.3
23. Juwan Johnson, NO vs. TB: 3.5-2.3-23-0.14 = 4.3
24. Will Dissly, LAC at DEN: 2.9-2.3-23-0.12 = 4.2
25. Hayden Hurst, LAC at DEN: 3.2-2.1-21-0.14 = 4.0
26. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN vs. IND: 3.0-2.2-21-0.13 = 4.0
27. Erick All Jr., CIN at NYG: 2.8-2.3-20-0.14 = 4.0
28. Tommy Tremble, CAR vs. ATL: 3.0-2.2-20-0.15 = 3.9
29. Austin Hooper, NE vs. HST: 2.9-1.9-20-0.12 = 3.6
30. Foster Moreau, NO vs. TB: 2.0-1.5-15-0.12 = 3.0
31. Josh Whyle, TEN vs. IND: 1.9-1.3-13-0.09 = 2.5
32. Theo Johnson, NYG vs. CIN: 1.8-1.2-13-0.09 = 2.4

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