Week 17 Fantasy Football Game By Game Breakdown

This is it.

After weeks of research, over-analyzing, stress, excitement and tilting, we have reached the fantasy football championship. Week 17 could be one of the most bizarre title weeks ever due to so many key players potentially being inactive, which means we will have to continue to keep tabs on news throughout the week.

With so much that can still change, as well as the holidays causing madness, half of this article will be up Thursday afternoon, with the rest coming Friday as we await more news. 

Let’s go bring home the trophy.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tennessee Titans

Total: 40.5, DAL -10
Pace: TEN: 29.29 sec/snap (28th), DAL: 26.63 sec/snap (7th)

Key news: The Titans have nothing to play for this week, which has Derrick Henry, among others, sitting out.

Titans

Quarterback

With Ryan Tannehill sidelined with an ankle injury, the Titans have turned to rookie quarterback Malik Willis. He has started three games this season and has not been asked to do much at all, averaging just 16.3 pass attempts and 78 passing yards per game in those three outings. But now Tennessee will start Joshua Dobbs. We’ll see how much more he throws than Willis has, though gamescript could force him to throw 30-plus passes here. Dobbs is not on the fantasy radar.

Running Back

No matter what happens this week, Week 18’s matchup between the Titans and Jaguars will decide who wins the AFC South, which means Tennessee will rest some players, especially with this being a short week. Derrick Henry is dealing with a hip injury that kept him out of practice and is not going to play in this game. The Cowboys are allowing the 11th-most rushing yards per game in the league this season (130.0), while around 14% of the runs against this defense have gained 10 or more yards, one of the highest rates in football. This makes rookie Hassan Haskins fantasy relevant, especially with pass-catching running back Dontrell Hilliard on injured reserve. Haskins has already taken on the passing role over the last two weeks and will likely see 15-18 touches, especially with how run-oriented the Titans are. Given the state of the offense, Haskins still wouldn’t reach RB2 range for me, but he’d become an extremely viable flex play.

Wide Receiver

In his first game back from a concussion last week, Treylon Burks posted a career-high 82% snap share, logging 14-of-18 snaps when Tennessee was in 12 personnel, which is a huge step forward for him. The bad news? Burks was only targeted twice and failed to haul in either target against the Texans. The good news, however, is that the Cowboys secondary is really banged up and struggling right now. With multiple defensive backs injured as of late, Dallas has now allowed four wide receivers to reach the 100-yard mark against them over the last three weeks, while one wideout recorded 92 yards. Since Week 9, the Cowboys are surrendering the most fantasy points per target in all of football (2.14). Burks should see coverage from Trevon Diggs for about 40% of his routes but will also see some time against Kelvin Joseph, who is really struggling right now. In 102 coverage snaps this year, Joseph has allowed 12 receptions on 18 targets for 228 yards, 19 yards per reception and four touchdowns. This should be a higher-volume game for the Titans passing attack but because there is still plenty of uncertainty, Burks projects as nothing more than an upside flex play, despite the matchup being very advantageous.

WRs vs. Cowboys since Week 14

Tight End

Chigoziem Okonkwo had been gaining steam as a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 in fantasy but fell back down to earth last week, catching just one pass for 10 yards. Tennessee’s passing attack just hasn’t had enough volume for any pass-catchers to get there in games where Willis has been under center this season, which will continue to make Okonwko extremely risky. He also ran seven fewer pass routes than Austin Hooper this past week and despite how efficient he is (still leading qualified tight ends in yards per route run (2.51), Okonkwo is likely an avoid, especially against a Cowboys defense that is surrendering the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends on the season (9.1).

Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott is coming off a monster game against the Eagles last week, completing 27-of-35 passes for 347 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for 41 yards. He’ll now head to Tennessee to face the premiere pass funnel defense in the league, as 77.7% of the yardage and 72.2% of the touchdowns scored against the Titans this season have come through the air, the highest and third-highest rates in the league, respectively. Opposing offenses are averaging a league-leading 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Titans this year, while only the Lions are coughing up more air yards this season (2,397). It is unlikely that the Cowboys are pushed to score in this game, which has capped Prescott’s upside at times this season, however, it is possible that Tennessee’s stout run defense slows Dallas’ rushing attack down, forcing them to take to the air. Prescott remains a low-end QB1, especially since so many key players from Tennessee’s defense will be out for this game.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott has regularly made reservations for six. He found the end zone last week and has now scored a touchdown in every game since Week 6, totaling 10 total touchdowns during that span. Since returning to the lineup in Week 11, Elliott leads the NFL in red zone carries (23), rushing touchdowns (7) and carries from inside the five-yard line (11). Touchdowns have carried Elliott’s fantasy value but since Prescott has returned, the Cowboys have been the top offense in the league, giving Zeke ample opportunities to find the end zone. He has a brutal Week 17 matchup, as Tennessee is allowing just 3.5 yards per carry this season, while just 22.2% of the touchdowns scored against the Titans have come on the ground, the fourth-lowest rate in football. This matchup definitely favors running backs that are involved in the passing game. That would mean good things for Tony Pollard … except Pollard has been ruled out. Elliott was a fantasy starter for this game regardless, and this is even better for him, likely leading to an uptick in passing-game usage.

Wide Receiver

Against the Eagles Sunday, CeeDee Lamb caught 10 passes for 120 yards and two touchdowns. Every single catch, receiving yard and touchdown came from the slot, where Lamb has been dominant as of late. Since Week 10, Lamb has operated out of the slot over 64% of the time. And during that span, Lamb ranks third in slot receptions (30), fifth in slot targets (36), first in slot receiving yards (416) and second in slot first downs (19). The Cowboys have been moving Lamb all over the formation as of late, especially before the snap, which has been fantastic. Lamb is an obvious must-start wide receiver against a depleted Tennessee secondary that is coughing up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the season. 

Michael Gallup is also a viable WR3/flex play in deeper leagues. He caught four passes for 36 yards and a touchdown on seven targets last week and gets a Titans defense that is allowing the fourth-most receiving yards, most receiving touchdowns and third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts on the left side of the formation, which is where Gallup operates over half of the time. They also rank bottom-five against receivers on the right side of the field, which is great considering that Gallup plays on the perimeter 93% of the time.

Tight End

With Prescott going off last week, it was definitely disappointing to see Dalton Schultz finish with just three catches for 43 yards. Still, Schultz has been mostly good alongside Prescott this season and since Prescott returned to the lineup in Week 7, Schultz leads all tight ends in end zone targets with six. The Titans, meanwhile, are surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points (14.5), third-most receptions (5.7) and second-most receiving yards (68.4) per game to opposing tight ends this season. 

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons

Total: 41, ATL -3.5
Pace: ATL: 29.25 sec/snap (27th), ARI: 25.8 sec/snap (1st)

Key news: Trace McSorley started for Arizona last week, but Colt McCoy has cleared the concussion protocol and will play.

Falcons

Quarterback

Through two starts, Desmond Ridder has scored 7.6 and 9.5 fantasy points, failing to score a touchdown. He played fine last week against the Ravens and this matchup against the Cardinals is obviously favorable, as Arizona is coughing up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (18.1). However, the philosophy of this Atlanta offense has not changed, as they are still establishing the hell out of the run, setting up play-action off that. Ridder is sporting a 41.1% play-action dropback rate over the last two weeks and faces a Cardinals defense that is surrendering a 74% completion percentage off play-action this season, the highest rate in football. Arizona is also coughing up the most touchdown passes off the play type (10), making this an advantageous spot for Ridder if you are in need of a second signal caller in a superflex format. 

Running Back

Tyler Allgeier continues to emerge as the lead running back in Atlanta. Against a vaunted Baltimore run defense this past weekend, the rookie out of BYU rushed for 74 yards on 18 carries, while adding four receptions for 43 yards. Allgeier logged 59% of the snaps Saturday, while handling 22-of-36 running back touches for the Falcons. He also saw an uptick in usage in the passing game, playing 5-of-9 third downs and playing a team-high eight snaps in the two-minute drill. Cordarrelle Patterson, meanwhile, only played 37% of the snaps, his lowest snap share in a fully healthy game all year long. Allgeier has quietly been very efficient as of late. Since Week 13, he ranks fifth in the league in missed tackles forced (15), fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.4) and third in avoided tackles per attempt (0.33). Now averaging a healthy 19.5 touches per game over the last two weeks, Allgeier faces an awful Arizona defense that has been destroyed by running backs as of late. Since Week 12, the Cardinals have allowed five running backs to finish inside the top-15 against them and since Week 9, are allowing well over three yards before contact per rush to opposing backfields. With Arizona also ranking seventh in missed tackles on the year (73), this could be a potential eruption spot for Allgeier, who is a low-end RB2. Patterson, meanwhile, is a lower end flex play, though with how much the Falcons are running the football, he should see around 10 touches. 

Wide Receiver

After hitting the rookie wall for a bit, Drake London has turned it back on lately. He caught 7-of-9 targets for 96 yards this past weekend, giving him three consecutive games with at least 70 yards and at least nine targets. In two games with Ridder under center, London is sporting a 33% target share and over the last three weeks, the rookie ranks second in targets (32), ninth in receptions (20) and is the WR15 in fantasy during that span. London can be deployed as an upside WR3 for championship weekend, though it is always interesting to see how successful the Cardinals have been against opposing top wide receivers. Still, Arizona’s overall defense has underwhelmed, surrendering the third-most points per drive (2.24), while opposing offenses are scoring points on 40.8% of drives this season, the fourth-highest rate in football.

Tight End

The Cardinals are the best matchup in all of fantasy for opposing tight ends. But it doesn’t matter — Parker Hesse, MyCole Pruitt and Anthony Firkser are not on the fantasy radar.

Cardinals

Quarterback

With Colt McCoy out with a concussion last week, Trace McSorley drew the first start of his career. He struggled, completing 24-of-45 passes for 217 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception, while also losing a pair of fumbles. McCoy has cleared the protocol and will start for the Cardinals, which will help this entire offense. Regardless of who is under center for Arizona, you should not be looking here for a starting fantasy quarterback, despite the favorable matchup with Atlanta. 

Running Back

Despite Arizona’s offense underwhelming for most of the season and then falling apart recently, James Conner simply continues to get it done. He carried the ball 15 times for 79 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay last week, adding seven receptions on eight targets for an additional 41 yards. Conner has now found the end zone in each of his last six games — since Week 10, the veteran is the fantasy RB5, averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game. During that stretch, Conner is also averaging 21.6 touches per game, while absolutely dominating the Arizona backfield, sporting opportunity shares of 96%, 79%, 90%, 91%, 95% and 96%. The volume is elite, and the usage in the passing game isn’t going anywhere. Conner is a top-10 running back play, especially against an Atlanta defense that is allowing the third-most points (2.33), second-most yards (37.3) and most plays (6.6) per drive this season, while the Falcons are also opponents to score points on 44% of drives, the highest rate in the league. 

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins was dangerously close to failing to catch a pass for the first time in his career last week. He ended up catching a screen for 10 yards, as Hopkins and the Arizona passing game really struggled to get going with McSorley under center. For whatever reason, McSorley developed a strong rapport with slot receiver Greg Dortch, who caught 10-of-11 targets for 98 yards. A matchup against the Falcons is a lot easier than Tampa Bay but if McSorley starts again, it’ll be difficult to trust Hopkins as anything more than a WR3. With McCoy at quarterback, Hopkins is a mid-range WR2. Marquise Brown, meanwhile, is WR3 regardless. All that said, it was interesting to see Dortch, who played 10 total snaps during Weeks 14-15, log 76% of the snaps this past weekend. We know that whoever has had the slot role in this Arizona offense has been very fantasy relevant, which includes Dortch for multiple weeks. It isn’t a guarantee that his playing time remains the same as it was last week but after such a strong outing, it seems likely. Dortch has re-entered the flex consideration in PPR formats.

Tight End

Trey McBride is not on my radar, especially during the most important week of the fantasy season.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

Total: 52, DET -6
Pace: DET: 27.29 sec/snap (13th), CHI: 29.1 sec/snap (26th)

Key news: Jamaal Williams is dealing with a lower leg injury.

Lions

Quarterback

With the Lions trailing all Saturday, Jared Goff was forced to air it out, attempting a season-high 42 passes. Goff completed 25 of those passes for 355 yards and three touchdowns, which I thought was against the rules considering he was on the road. Goff has now passed for at least 330 yards in three of his last four games and returns home this week, where he is averaging 277 passing yards, 2.5 passing touchdowns and 20.7 fantasy points per game this season. He hosts a struggling Bears defense that is surrendering the third-most yards per pass attempt on the year (7.7), as well as the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (17.6). And since Week 10, Chicago is allowing 0.202 EPA per dropback, the worst mark in the league, as well as the most EPA per play (0.127). Between Goff being lights out at home and the Bears allowing the third-most yards per play on the road this season (6.0), the veteran signal caller is an easy top-12 fantasy option for championship week. Start him with confidence. 

Running Back

Trying to project D’Andre Swift’s workload each week is pretty easily the most difficult part of my research. He could legitimately see anywhere from seven to 18 touches in a given game. Last week, Swift did log 56% of the snaps, his highest snap share in a game since Week 1. He touched the ball just five times, however, as the Lions were chasing points early and often. Jamaal Williams suffered a leg injury late in the third quarter and only played 24% of the snaps, thought that was largely due to gamescript considering Williams hardly plays on passing downs. We’ll see if Williams can play this weekend — if he doesn’t, Swift will go from a flex play to a trustworthy No. 2 running back, especially given the matchup. The Bears just allowed Devin Singletary and James Cook to combine for 205 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week — over the course of the season, no team has allowed more rushing touchdowns than Chicago. If Williams is sidelined, Swift could finally have a short-yardage role, as Williams leads the league with 27 carries from inside the 5-yard line. Swift could get the goal-line usage against a Bears defense that is allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 64.7% of red zone scoring trips this season, the fifth-worst rate in the league. Justin Jackson will likely see 7-10 touches if Williams is unavailable this week, especially since we know the Lions don’t want to give Swift too many touches each week. That will put him on the flex radar, especially in this incredible matchup. And, per usual, Williams will remain a touchdown-or-bust flex play if he suits up this week.

Keep an eye on his status as the week progresses. 

Wide Receiver

You are absolutely starting Amon-Ra St. Brown, who continues to demonstrate an elite floor. He has seven catches for 76 yards in each of his last two games and has hauled in at least six passes in six consecutive games. St. Brown has seen double-digit targets in four of his last five games. Over the course of the season, his 30% targets per route run ranks among the top three wide receivers in the league. He gets a great matchup with the Bears, who are allowing 2.10 fantasy points per target to opposing wide receivers since Week 9, the second-highest mark in football during that span. They are also surrendering a healthy 6.73 yards after the catch per reception to opposing wideouts in that stretch, easily the highest mark in the league. When these teams last met back in Week 10, St. Brown torched the Bears to the tune of 10 receptions and 119 yards.

I also really like DJ Chark, who continues to produce. He caught four passes for 108 yards Saturday, giving him at least 90 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Chark should be able to keep it rolling against a depleted Chicago secondary that could be without top defensive back Jaylon Johnson, who missed the team’s last game. And during that aforementioned eight-week stretch, the Bears are allowing 10.4 yards per target to opposing wideouts, the most in all of football. The Bears are surrendering the third-most yards per completion (11.8) over the course of the season, making this a good spot for Chark to be able to get behind the defense and create some splash plays. Chark is a high-upside WR3 in this divisional showdown. 

Tight End

If you are chasing the Shane Zylstra three-touchdown game, good luck. Yes, he did run 22 routes and saw five targets, while Brock Wright and James Mitchell combined for 23 pass routes and three targets. The Bears did just allow a touchdown to Dawson Knox last week but over the course of the season, Chicago is allowing just 8.3 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, the second fewest in football.

Bears

Quarterback

Justin Fields is coming off his worst game in months, passing for just 119 yards and a touchdown against the Bills. More surprisingly, however, Fields was limited to just 11 rushing yards on seven rushing attempts, as Buffalo made a clear effort to keep him in the pocket this past weekend. Fields is still playing through a shoulder injury and apparently had his foot stepped on last week, but as long as he is starting for the Bears, he is starting for your fantasy roster. He faces a man-heavy Lions defense that is surrendering the most rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers on the season (37.2). Fields rushed for an insane 147 yards and two touchdowns when these teams last met in Week 10, while also throwing for 167 yards and two more scores. Even after last week’s quiet game, Fields is still averaging 10.7 rushing attempts, 1.9 red zone attempts and 72.2 rushing yards per game on the year. With Detroit also coughing up a league-worst 22.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, Fields should bounce back in a massive way this week, especially if the Bears’ wideouts are healthy. 

Running Back

Khalil Herbert returned from injury last week and immediately ate into the workload of David Montgomery. Herbert logged 41% of the snaps and touched the ball eight times, while Montgomery played 67% of the snaps and recorded 20 touches. Herbert played six third downs to Montgomery’s five, while the latter handled all of the short-yardage and goal-line snaps. A matchup against the Lions run defense has been really bad as of late, though the Carolina Panthers just obliterated this unit last week, as both D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard eclipsed the 100-yard mark against them. Still, since Week 9, this has been one of the best run defenses in the entire league, which makes this a somewhat confusing spot for the Chicago backfield. Montgomery remains, at worst, a low-end RB2 simply based on volume, as he should see 15-18 touches, with Herbert seeing 7-10. 

Wide Receiver

Both Chase Claypool and Equanimeous St. Brown missed Chicago’s last game, which vaulted Byron Pringle, Velus Jones and Dante Pettis into larger roles. I’d have to be hurting at wide receiver to consider any wide receivers from the Bears this week, though whoever operates from the slot will certainly have the best matchup here. When Claypool and St. Brown have been healthy since the Darnell Mooney injury, Pettis has been the team’s slot wide receiver.

Tight End

Cole Kmet should continue to be the top target in this passing game. He caught 5-of-6 targets last week, though for just 27 yards. Kmet has now seen at least five targets in each of his last four games, though he’s also been under 30 receiving yards in three of those contests. While he hasn’t found the end zone as of late, Kmet still has seen 29.4% of the Bears’ targets from inside the 10-yard line this season, good for the 14th-highest rate in the league and now he faces a weak Detroit pass defense that is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points (14.1) and most receiving touchdowns (0.67) per game to opposing tight ends on the season.

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders

Total: 40.5, WAS -2
Pace: WAS: 28.79 sec/snap (25th), CLE: 28.1 sec/snap (18th)

Key news: Carson Wentz will start at QB this week. RB Antonio Gibson is dealing with a sprain.

Commanders

Quarterback

After not starting since Week 6, Carson Wentz is back at quarterback for the Commanders this weekend, as he’ll try to help Washington make the playoffs. While there are plenty of championship teams that could use help at the quarterback position, Wentz wouldn’t be in my top-three streaming candidates this week. Cleveland has been a run funnel defense for much of the season and Washington wants to run the football anyway. 60% of the yardage gained against the Browns this season has come through the air, the seventh-lowest rate in football, while they are allowing the 10th-fewest passing touchdowns per game on the year (1.3). If you miss out on Gardner Minshew or Mike White, I think Wentz is fine, especially with his wide receivers at full strength, but I see the Washington ground game doing much of the heavy lifting here.

Running Back

Weirdly enough, the Commanders tried to establish the run against the best run defense in the world last week. Spoiler alert – it didn’t work. Brian Robinson rushed for just 58 yards on a whopping 22 carries against the 49ers, but if they had no issues pounding the rock against San Francisco, they will certainly rely on Robinson against a very vulnerable Cleveland run defense. The Browns are coughing up the third-most rushing touchdowns per game to opposing backfields this season (0.93), as well as the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. Just 15% of the runs against Cleveland have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, one of the lowest rates in the league, while around 15% of the runs against them have gained 10 or more yards, one of the five-highest rates in the league. Antonio Gibson only played 29% of the snaps last week and is apparently dealing with some sort of sprain, which could impact his availability for this game. Robinson should see 18-20 touches in this game and if Gibson is sidelined, perhaps we see an uptick in third down snaps for Robinson, which would then lead to more usage in the passing game. He’s a rock-solid RB2 for me.

Wide Receiver

This is interesting. The Carson Wentz/Taylor Heinicke splits for the Washington wide receivers have been very evident over the course of the season. And, as you’d expect, it starts with Pro Bowl wideout Terry McLaurin, who was much more productive with Heinicke under center. In nine games alongside Heinicke, McLaurin averaged 8.0 targets, 5.5 receptions, 80.5 receiving yards and 15.6 PPR points per game. However, in six games with Wentz under center, he has averaged 6.1 targets, 3.6 receptions, 61.1 receiving yards and just over 11 PPR points per game. With Heinicke at quarterback, McLaurin led the Commanders in targets in all but one game, sporting a 27.8% target share in those contests. However, he only sported a 16.3% target share with Wentz under center, as Wentz leaned more on Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson. McLaurin isn’t suddenly a player you should 100% bench now, but I do believe this could end up being a downgrade for him based on what we’ve seen from Wentz this season. And for how bad the Browns have been against the run, they have done a good job against wide receivers as of late, allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts since Week 9. And with Dotson healthy, McLaurin’s overall target share has taken a hit, regardless of quarterback. Consider him a lower-end WR2 this weekend.

Speaking of Dotson, the rookie has been rolling. He found the end zone last week, giving him a touchdown in each of his last three games. During that span, Dotson is ninth among qualified wide receivers in yards per target (13.9) and fifth in end zone targets (3). Touchdowns have helped him average a gaudy 3.60 fantasy points per touch over the course of the season, though it obviously comes in a limited sample size seeing as he has missed a handful of games. The rookie has 9, 6 and 9 targets over the last three weeks and in four games alongside Wentz before suffering an injury, Dotson scored four touchdowns on four end zone targets. He’ll be relatively touchdown dependent, but Dotson has emerged as a viable WR3. Finally, Curtis Samuel should see 5-7 targets and with Gibson potentially out, we could see Samuel see 3-5 carries and plenty of snaps out of the backfield, which lead to easy-to-convert targets. He’s been more productive with Wentz under center, averaging 3.6 more targets, 2.6 more receptions, 9.3 more receiving yards and nearly four more fantasy points per game this season.

Tight End

Logan Thomas was very involved last week, catching 6-of-8 targets for 35 yards. Even with the busy day, Thomas has still been very underwhelming for fantasy purposes over the course of the season, scoring only one touchdown all year long, which came back in Week 2. The Browns, meanwhile, are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (9.4), as well as the third-fewest receptions per game to the position (3.6). Thomas is barely on the fantasy radar.

Browns

Quarterback

Playing in conditions that were not beneficial for passing games last week, Deshaun Watson completed 15-of-31 passes for 135 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception. He saved his day with 24 rushing yards and a score, giving him at least 20 rushing yards in all four starts this season. Watson has yet to finish higher than QB14, though he’s had some really tough matchups against the Texans, Bengals, Ravens and Saints. This week’s matchup against Washington isn’t exactly a walk in the park, but the Commanders are surrendering a 4.8% passing touchdown rate, the fourth-highest rate in football, and also coughing up 22.1 rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers, the 10th most in the league. However, since Week 10, only San Francisco has been better in terms of EPA per dropback on defense than the Commanders (-0.103), making this a pretty middling matchup for Watson. Cleveland has relied more on the pass since Watson has made his debut and they do face a Washington defense that is stout against the run. As a result, 64.7% of the touchdowns scored against the Commanders have come through the air, the seventh-highest rate in football. Watson remains a mid-range QB2 for fantasy.

Running Back

Since Week 10, Nick Chubb is just the RB18 in fantasy. He only has one touchdown and one 100-yard game during that span, and it only happened because that game went down to the final seconds of overtime, giving Chubb essentially five quarters that week. It has certainly been frustrating. Now he faces a tough Commanders run defense that is surrendering the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season. Since Week 9, running backs are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry against Washington, while averaging less than 10 rushing fantasy points per game during that span. The volume isn’t going anywhere, as Chubb has seen 21 and 25 touches over the last two weeks, which keeps him in the RB2 range. 

Wide Receiver

Somehow, Amari Cooper finished last week’s game with six receptions for 72 yards on 10 targets, despite playing in the freezing cold, snow and wind. It was easily his most targets in a game with Watson under center, as Donovan Peoples-Jones, who gets the targets deep down the field, was phased out, likely due to the weather. Cooper now heads to Washington which means we have a road game on our hands. The veteran wideout is averaging just 6.4 targets, 3.4 receptions, 46.7 receiving yards and 9.8 PPR points per game in seven games away from home this season. Cooper is a high-end WR3, while Peoples-Jones, who was easy to get away from due to the weather last week, is back to being an upside WR3/flex play. The Commanders are allowing an aDOT of 8.2 yards this season, the eighth-highest mark in the league, and surrendering the fifth-most yards off deep passes.

Tight End

David Njoku is also coming off a quiet game last week but when Watson only throws for 135 yards, it is difficult for multiple players from the passing game to get there. The good news, however, is that Njoku’s role and involvement remained elite, as he logged 68-of-70 snaps and ran a route on 30-of-33 dropbacks. The Commanders have been a top-five defense against opposing tight ends this season, but any tight end as talented as Njoku and playing as much as he is remains a must-start fantasy option, regardless of matchup. He’s seen at least five targets in all three games he’s played alongside Watson this season. 

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants

Total: 38.5, NYG -6
Pace: NYG: 27.47 sec/snap (15th), IND: 26.78 sec/snap (9th)

Key news: Nick Foles will continue to start at QB for the Colts.

Giants

Quarterback

Daniel Jones is coming off a very strong game, passing for a season-high 334 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings and adding 34 rushing yards. Jones has now rushed for at least 25 yards in 11 games over the course of the season, averaging 7.3 rushing attempts, 1.5 red zone attempts and 41.1 rushing yards per game on the year. It has helped give Jones a very strong floor, as he has finished as a top-15 fantasy signal caller in eight games this year, while his 0.48 fantasy points per dropback ranks 12th among active quarterbacks. Because the Colts play so much zone defense, they don’t allow a ton of rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, but Jones has been pretty solid against zone defense this season. According to Player Profiler, he ranks 12th in completion percentage (71.4%) and fifth in passer rating (102.8) against zone coverage, while ranking just 25th in passer rating against man coverage (84.6). Jones is a high-end QB2 against the Colts.

Running Back

After a bit of a rough stretch, Saquon Barkley has been fantastic over the last two games, rushing for at least 84 yards and a touchdown in both outings and totaling 13 receptions on 18 targets. Barkley has returned to an every-down role, logging 90% of the snaps over the last two games, while sporting opportunity shares of 89% and 89%. He should be able to keep it going this week against a reeling Colts run defense that has allowed eight running back touchdowns over the last four weeks. Since Week 9, the Colts are allowing 2.13 yards before contact per attempt, up from the 1.73 mark they allowed through Week 8. And during that same stretch of games, they are allowing 18.9 rushing fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, good for the third most in the league. Indianapolis also continues to allow plenty of production to running backs in the passing game, surrendering the seventh-most receptions (5.6) and eighth-most receiving yards per game (42.5) to opposing backfields this season, which bodes well for Barkley and his 25.3% target share over the last two weeks, the highest mark among all running backs.

RBs vs. the Colts since Week 12

*in one quarter

Wide Receiver

Isaiah Hodgins is coming off the game of his life last week, hauling in eight catches for 89 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. He now has at least four receptions in each of his last four games, and during that span, Hodgins has run a route on 152-of-156 Daniel Jones’ dropbacks (97%). Hodgins has a full-time role right now and is worth a look if you are hurting at wide receiver, though this week’s matchup is much more difficult. The Colts are a lot stronger against perimeter wide receivers, especially with how well Stephon Gilmore is playing. Gilmore has also been shadowing for much of the season, having done so five times, including each of the last two weeks, He has faced Justin Jefferson and Mike Williams during that span, who are clearly more talented wide receivers than Hodgins, while also warranting more defensive attention. The matchup I am looking to attack, however, is the slot, which leads to me having interest in Richie James. He caught eight passes for 90 yards on a team-high 12 targets last week and while the Giants aren’t going to have to throw as much this game, I do love the spot for James. Indianapolis’ slot defensive back Kenny Moore has been sidelined and without him, the Colts have struggled to defend the slot. Over the last three weeks, they have allowed five catches for 71 yards and a touchdown to CeeDee Lamb, 10 catches for 157 yards and a touchdown to K.J. Osborn and 11 catches for 104 yards to Keenan Allen. James has a healthy 26 targets over the last three weeks and is operating out of the slot 84% of the time this season, the second-highest rate in the league. James is perhaps my favorite sleeper wideout of Week 17.

Tight End

Daniel Bellinger continues to play 90% of the snaps and run a ton of routes, though it hasn’t led to much fantasy relevance. 

Colts

Quarterback

With the season lost and the Colts losing money if Matt Ryan suffers an injury, the team has turned to Nick Foles to end the year. Foles was awful Monday, completing 17-of-29 passes for 143 yards and three interceptions. The veteran signal caller demonstrated putrid pocket presence (alliteration is fun), and with Foles under center, this entire Indianapolis offense takes a massive hit. Anyone who thought the move from Ryan to Foles wouldn’t make a difference should go back and watch this game against the Chargers. 

Running Back

Despite reports that the Colts would deploy a rotation between Zack Moss and Deon Jackson, it was all Moss Monday. The former Buffalo Bill drew the start at running back, logging 69% of the snaps and handling 77% of the Colts running back touches. He rushed for 65 yards on 12 carries but because the Colts didn’t reach the red zone in this game, we couldn’t see goal line usage from Moss, though he did play 6-of-8 third-down snaps. Jackson, for whatever reason, hardly saw the field, logging just eight offensive snaps, five of which came on the final drive of the game. Moss appears to be the lead back and while this offense is going to underwhelm, he should be in store for 13-18 touches against a vulnerable Giants run defense that is coughing up the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing backfields on the season (119.3). He is a viable flex play here.

Wide Receiver

It is going to be tough to trust any pass-catchers from the Colts with Foles under center. That includes Michael Pittman, who caught four passes for just 39 yards on seven targets last week. He should continue to lead this team in targets, but how valuable are those targets actually going to be? The Giants, meanwhile, have been using Fabian Moreau to shadow opposing top wide receivers over the last four weeks, and while that isn’t exactly a matchup to run away from, Pittman projects as nothing more than a risky WR3 right now.

Tight End

With Kylen Granson out with an ankle injury last week, rookie tight end Jelani Woods caught three passes for 43 yards on five targets. It was the second time Granson has missed a game this season and the second time Woods was productive in his absence, as he caught eight passes for 98 yards when Granson was sidelined back in Week 12. Woods ran a route on 22-of-36 dropbacks Monday (61%), playing all but one snaps in the fourth quarter. If Granson remains sidelined this week, Woods could make for a desperation play at tight end against a Giants defense that was just dismantled by T.J. Hockenson last week. And on the season, the Giants are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (13.9).

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Total: 43.5, JAC -4.5
Pace: HOU: 28.46 sec/snap (22nd), JAC: 26.41 sec/snap (5th)

Key news: The Jaguars will reportedly not rest players for this game.

Texans

Quarterback

Davis Mills has a pretty favorable matchup this week if you are hurting at QB2 in superflex formats. The Jaguars pass defense has been pretty bad this season, surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (18.4) to go along with the 10th-highest passing touchdown rate (4.5%). They are also allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (246.5) and sixth-most passing touchdowns per game (1.60) to opposing passers. 

Running Back

I am not relying on anyone from the Houston backfield in the fantasy championship. They continue to “start” Dare Ogunbowale, only for Royce Freeman to get more carries as the game goes on. Over the last two weeks with Dameon Pierce sidelined, Freeman is averaging 14.5 touches per game, while Rex Burkhead handles most of the passing-game work. Last week, he played 10-of-12 third downs for the Texans but has not registered a single carry. He scored 8.7 fantasy points last week, his most since Week 4, but only got there by recovering a Mills fumble into the end zone for a touchdown. If you have no choice but to start a running back from the Texans, go with Freeman but don’t expect much.

Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks returned to the lineup last week, and with Nico Collins on injured reserve, the veteran wideout was once again the lead target for the Texans. He caught four passes for 34 yards and a touchdown, while seeing a team-high nine targets. Cooks is a viable WR3 play against an exploitable Jaguars secondary that is coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points per target to opposing wide receivers since Week 9 (1.87). And during that same span, six wide receivers have finished as top-24 fantasy wideouts against the Jaguars, making this a very good spot for Cooks.

Tight End

Jordan Akins has been OK lately, but there are other tight ends with higher upside and in a larger role that you can look to if you are desperate. 

Jaguars

Quarterback

Although this game means almost nothing for Jacksonville, head coach Doug Pederson said the starters will not rest if they are healthy, which means we’ll see Trevor Lawrence this week. While he didn’t throw a touchdown last week in the wet and windy Meadowlands, he did rush for 51 yards and a touchdown. Lawrence has been lights out since Week 10, ranking as the QB4 in all of fantasy. During that same span, Lawrence is sixth in adjusted completion percentage (80.2%), eighth in passing yards (1,674), second in 300-yard games (3) and fifth in passing touchdowns (13). He faces a Texans defense that has been good against opposing passers this year, allowing just three quarterbacks to post top-12 performances against them. Lawrence really struggled against Houston back in Week 5, completing just 25-of-47 passes for 286 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions, but that was well before he was playing at an All Pro level. The Texans are allowing the third-lowest passing touchdown rate in the league (2.8%) but it is still tough to get away from Lawrence, especially with how the quarterback position looks at the moment.

Running Back

The Jaguars featured Travis Etienne last Thursday, as he rushed for 83 yards on 22 carries, adding three receptions for 29 yards. If he sees similar volume this week, I expect terrific numbers against a Texans team that is coughing up the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the season. 44.2% of the yardage and 52.5% of the touchdowns against the Texans this season have come on the ground, the highest and 2nd-highest rates in the NFL. Meanwhile, 15.6% of the runs against the Texans this season have gained 10 or more yards, the second-highest rate in the league, which bodes extremely well for Etienne, who has made a huge impact on explosive runs this season. 12% of his runs have gained 10 or more yards, while his 14 runs of 15 or more yards are the sixth-most in football. Etienne is on the RB1/2 borderline ahead of this dream matchup against his division rival.

Wide Receiver

There wasn’t much opportunity for the Jacksonville wide receivers last week, as Lawrence only completed 20 passes. The Texans have limited the production of opposing passing games this season, mostly due to the fact that rushing attacks have done so much of the work against them. As a result, wide receivers are averaging the third-fewest fantasy points per game against Houston this year. Still, Zay Jones and Christian Kirk project as high-end WR3 plays, especially given how dialed in Lawrence is right now. With Lawrence leading the NFL in end zone passes this season, Jones is quietly sixth in all of football in end zone targets with 12. The targets that he sees are of the highest value, especially for fantasy, as 26.4% of Jones’ overall targets have come either 20 yards down the field or in the end zone. 

Tight End

Evan Engram is on a tear. After a stellar 8-catch, 113-yard performance where he carried the Jacksonville passing attack last week, Engram is now averaging 10 targets, 7.7 receptions and 91.7 receiving yards per game over the last four weeks, while scoring twice during that span. He continues to play almost all of the snaps, while his 474 pass routes trail only T.J. Hockenson and Travis Kelce among all tight ends this season. His 428 yards after the catch rank second at the position, averaging 4.7 yards after the catch per target. Enjoying a renaissance year in Jacksonville, Engram will close out the fantasy season as a no-doubt top-five tight end.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 40.5, TB -3
Pace: TB: 25.9 sec/snap (3rd), CAR: 28.61 sec/snap (23rd)

Key news: Panthers CB Jaycee Horn will be out with a wrist injury.

Buccaneers

Quarterback

You know, I am really sick of watching this Tampa Bay offense. A first down run for one yard, a screen pass to Chris Godwin and a missed deep shot to Mike Evans leads to a punt. Lather, rinse, repeat. Tom Brady struggled again on Christmas, completing 32-of-48 passes for 281 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. It was the seventh time this season Brady averaged fewer than 6.0 yards per pass attempt, as he continues to underwhelm with the immense volume he sees. Brady has attempted at least 43 passes in each of his last five games and eight of his last nine. This offense is just broken, as Brady is worried about getting hit, which is forcing him to get the ball out faster than anyone in football, as he’s averaging 2.28 seconds to throw. And because he’s worried about getting the ball out immediately, he is missing throws he usually makes. Now he faces a Carolina defense that is surrendering the 11th-fewest yards per pass attempt this season (6.9). If Brady couldn’t get it done against a struggling Cardinals defense, I am not expecting much against a Panthers defense that held him to 290 scoreless yards on 5.9 yards per attempt back in Week 7.

Running Back

Despite the Bucs continuing to use a committee at running back, Leonard Fournette out-touched Rachaad White 29-11 Sunday night. A huge reason behind the massive discrepancy in touches is the fact that when Fournette was in the game, Tampa Bay’s offense sustained drives and when White was on the field, they didn’t. The Bucs go with a series-by-series approach with their running backs, as they’ll play an entire drive. White caught a touchdown, which happened to come on Fournette’s drive, but the veteran asked to be taken out of the game. Still, because Brady is getting the ball out so quickly and targeting the running backs at an absurd rate, both Fournette and White present strong floors in PPR formats. Over the last four weeks, Fournette has been targeted 28 times, with White seeing 19 targets during that span. The 133 targets from Tampa Bay running backs are the second-most in the league, as Brady is targeting the position over 20% of the time this season. Fournette should be ranked ahead of White, but both are high-end flex plays in PPR formats.

Wide Receiver

Another game, another five-plus catches from Chris Godwin. He caught eight to be exact, giving him at least five receptions in every game since returning from his hamstring injury all the way back in Week 4. During that same span, Godwin has seen double-digit targets eight times, as this Bucs offense can really only run their passing game through screens right now. As a result, no player in football has seen more targets (28) or caught more passes (26) off screens this season than Godwin. In fact, screens account for 23% of his targets and 29% of his total receptions this season, which gives him so many easy-to-convert targets, but does limit his upside in terms of yards per target, aDOT, etc. Godwin’s six deep targets not only rank 91st in all of football, but they also rank fourth on his own team. Still, Godwin is one of the safest players in all of fantasy right now and is honestly benefiting from how limited this Tampa Bay offense is right now. Continue to start him with confidence.

Mike Evans, meanwhile, is not benefiting from this offense. In fact, it has been the exact opposite. Because Brady is getting the ball out so fast, it isn’t giving Evans, who works more down the field, enough time for his routes to fully develop. He caught just three passes for 29 yards on eight targets last week, as Brady and Evans continue to struggle to connect down the field. Evans ranks third in the NFL with 26 deep targets this season but has only hauled in nine of those looks, which has been brutal. Brady has really struggled with the deep ball this season, ranking 30th in completion rate on passes 20-plus yards down the field (32.3%). The overall volume has remained strong, though, as Evans has seen at least eight targets in four of his last five games. A matchup with the Panthers isn’t easy but the absence of Jaycee Horn in the secondary will be felt, as he’s been one of the best defensive backs in football this season. Horn is allowing a reception every 15.1 coverage snaps this season, a top-15 rate in the league, while allowing less than 0.15 fantasy points per coverage route. Instead, Evans will draw coverage from Keith Taylor, who is allowing 0.29 fantasy points per coverage route and a 124.3 passer rating this season. Evans hasn’t scored since Week 4, but you have to think the touchdown is coming, right?

Tight End

Cameron Brate may be active, but Tampa Bay continues to roll with rookie Cade Otton, who logged 85% of the snaps Sunday night, running a route on 38-of-48 dropbacks (79%). He was targeted seven times, while Brate only played seven offensive snaps. Because Tampa Bay is throwing the ball so much and Otton is operating in the intermediate portions of the field, he could easily continue to see 5-7 targets per week, which puts him on the high-end TE2 radar going forward. 

Panthers

Quarterback

Sam Darnold took over as Carolina’s starting quarterback in Week 12. Since then, the former second overall selection ranks among the league leaders in EPA per play. The Panthers remain a run-first team, as Carolina is sporting the league’s highest rush rate in neutral game scripts since Week 12 (60.6%). That has limited Darnold to just 22 pass attempts per game, which is not enough to really consider him in most fantasy leagues. I will say, however, that Tampa Bay is allowing a 4.8% passing touchdown rate this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league. 

Running Back

After struggling to get anything going against the Steelers in Week 15, D’Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard and the Carolina ground game dominated this past weekend. Despite facing the hottest run defense in football, Foreman rushed for 165 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries against the Lions, while Hubbard chipped in with 125 yards on 12 attempts. With how much the Panthers are running the football, both running backs are solid flex options, with Hubbard getting the edge in PPR formats considering he played all but one third down snap last week and every snap in the two-minute drill. Foreman logged 44% of the snaps and Hubbard played 46% of the snaps, with Foreman getting most of the early down carries. Tampa Bay’s run defense has been a lot more vulnerable this season than in year’s past, especially if defensive tackle Vita Vea is out of the lineup. 

Wide Receiver

DJ Moore continues to enjoy playing alongside Sam Darnold. He caught 5-of-7 targets for 83 yards and a touchdown last week, as the Panthers are using him in a different role as of late. In fact, since Darnold’s debut, Moore ranks sixth in the league in yards per reception (18.5), first in aDOT (17.7 yards) and 10th in yards per route run (2.59). In Weeks 1-10, however, Moore ranked 59th in yards per reception (12.0), 35th in aDOT (12.1 yards) and 63rd in yards per route run (1.43). Moore is seeing more looks down the field and the overall offense has been more efficient with Darnold under center. Dating back to last season, Moore is averaging 8.7 targets, 5.1 receptions, 69.1 receiving yards and 14.5 PPR points per game in 16 contests with Darnold at quarterback. And in 16 games without Darnold, he is averaging 7.9 targets, 4.1 receptions, 50.9 receiving yards and 11.1 PPR points per contest. Consider him a rock-solid WR3 against the Bucs.

Tight End

Nope. No thanks. 

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 44, PHI -6
Pace: PHI: 26.47 sec/snap (6th), NO: 28.7 sec/snap (24th)

Key news: Jalen Hurts (shoulder) has a chance to return this week. The Eagles will be without Lane Johnson and Avonte Maddox.

Eagles

Quarterback

With Jalen Hurts out last week, Gardner Minshew drew the start at quarterback for the Eagles. He completed 24-of-40 passes for 355 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, adding a rushing touchdown off the Eagles’ unstoppable QB sneak. There’s a chance Hurts returns this week. If he does, you are obviously starting him without hesitation. The Eagles have plenty to play for this week, as a win not only clinches the top seed in the NFC, but also makes the Saints’ 2023 first-round draft pick, which belongs to the Eagles, more valuable. New Orleans’ defense has been really strong lately, but since Week 10, they have faced the Steelers, Rams, 49ers, Bucs, Falcons and Browns, which isn’t exactly a list of the most loaded offenses (especially passing games) in the NFL. Hurts has finished as a top-15 fantasy signal caller in every game this season, with 11 games inside the top-five. If Hurts is out again, Minshew not only becomes the top streaming quarterback once again, but a borderline QB1. He is averaging over 18 fantasy points per game over his last three starts for the Eagles, and this remains one of the best offenses in football with talent all over the place. 

Running Back

Miles Sanders disappointed last week, rushing for just 65 yards on 21 carries against a vulnerable Dallas run defense and losing a fumble for the second consecutive game. The volume was strong, but even with Hurts and his 20 carries from inside the 5-yard line unavailable, Sanders still saw a touchdown go to Minshew from a yard out, while Kenneth Gainwell was the running back in the game during that red zone trip for the Eagles. The efficiency of the running game, as well as the entire offense, obviously improves with Hurts under center, so hopefully he is active this week. Sanders has had some huge blow-up games this season, but if he doesn’t score a touchdown, he is going to underwhelm because of his minimal usage in the passing game. In the seven games where Sanders failed to find the end zone, he is only averaging 6.1 PPR fantasy points per game. Whether Hurts or Minshew is under center this week, Sanders will remain a touchdown-or-bust RB2, though the upside is still tremendous. 

Wide Receiver

DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown delivered last week, as both wide receivers eclipsed the 100-yard mark against the Cowboys. Philadelphia’s top wideouts had no issues producing with Minshew under center, while the return of Dallas Goedert didn’t have much of an impact on the volume. The Saints have had a stellar pass defense as of late, ranking top-three in EPA per dropback since Week 10 (-0.064) and sixth in defensive success rate during that span, but again, the competition hasn’t exactly been the greatest. Smith draws the tougher matchup of the two if Marshon Lattimore is once again sidelined, as he’ll see coverage from Alontae Taylor, who is allowing just 0.16 fantasy points per coverage route this season. Brown, meanwhile, will see Paulson Adebo, who is surrendering 0.27 fantasy points per coverage route this season to go along with a 71% catch rate. He remains a must-start WR1, while Smith is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Tight End

After a four-game absence, Dallas Goedert returned to action this past weekend and was not limited. He logged 94% of the snaps and ran a route on 35-of-42 dropbacks (83%), ultimately catching three passes for 67 yards. It seems unlikely that Goedert sees only three targets again, especially if the Eagles continue to throw the football quite a bit. Per usual, Goedert was efficient last week, which has been the theme all year long. Goedert ranks first among tight ends in yards per target (11.1), while also ranking third in yards per route run (2.40), fourth in yards per reception (13.3) and first in yards after the catch per reception (8.2). The Saints have been really good against tight ends this year, allowing the fewest fantasy points (7.6), fourth-fewest receptions (3.7) and second-fewest receiving yards (31.8) per game to the position, but you are still starting Goedert.

Saints

Quarterback

In the awful elements in Cleveland last week, Andy Dalton attempted just 15 passes. He’ll have to throw the ball a lot more this week, especially if/when the Saints fall behind. Unfortunately, the matchup is brutal, as the Eagles have only allowed three signal callers to finish as top-12 fantasy options this season. Philadelphia is also allowing the third-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.4) and fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (13.6). Feel free to sit Dalton this week just like you have been every other week of the season.

Running Back

It happened. For the first time since Week 8, Alvin Kamara found the end zone. He rushed for 76 yards and a score on 20 carries against the Browns last week, while finally seeing usage from in close, as Kamara saw his third carry from inside the 5-yard line all year last week. His snap share finally climbed up to 70%, while he ran 11 pass routes to David Johnson’s 4, which is a step up from Week 15 when Johnson ran 10 routes to Kamara’s 9. Still, the overall snaps on third downs have come down this season, as he’s played just over 60% of the team’s third downs on the year. Kamara hasn’t eclipsed two receptions in each of his last three games but at least the volume has been strong over the last two weeks, averaging 22.5 touches per game. You are still starting him as a mid-range RB2, while the matchup against the Eagles is improved if defensive tackle Jordan Davis can’t play in this game. 

Wide Receiver

The Saints were without both Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry last week, paving the way for Rashid Shaheed to continue to emerge for New Orleans. Landry has since been placed on injured reserve, but Olave returned to practice Wednesday, putting him on track to play. If Olave is active, he’ll slide in as a high-end WR3 for me in a tough matchup against a strong Philadelphia secondary. They are dealing with some injuries at the moment, but Darius Slay and James Bradberry are healthy, which is bad news for Olave, who has lined up on the right side of the formation around 40% of the time this season. That means he’ll see coverage from Slay, but Olave still has plenty of upside, as the rookie is second in the league in air yards per route run (4.0) and 10th in targets per route run (27%). 

Shaheed, meanwhile, is very interesting. He led the Saints in routes run and targets for the second consecutive week and will operate as the number-two receiver for the Saints to end the season. I’d love to see him play more out of the slot, as he’s only lined up there 27% of the time this season. If he moves inside more with Olave back, he could smash here, as the Eagles were just decimated from the slot by CeeDee Lamb last week. And things got really bad when slot defensive back Avonte Maddox left the game. Maddox will be out indefinitely with a toe injury, which means the slot will continue to be the best avenue for success against the Eagles, who are already allowing the most targets (8.3), third-most receptions (5.5), second-most receiving yards (68.4) and second-most fantasy points (16.3) per game to pass-catchers from the slot this year. Still, Shaheed’s uptick in involvement and the absence of Landry puts him on the radar once again this week and an intriguing sleeper wide receiver.

Tight End

There were reports the Saints would feature Taysom Hill more in the brutal winds last week in Cleveland, and that was the case. Hill logged just over 46% of the snaps, playing 13 snaps at quarterback, his second-most in a game this season. Hill carried the ball nine times for 56 yards and a touchdown, giving him a healthy 16 rushing attempts over the last two weeks. He may not be as involved this week, but Hill has seen more carries in the absence of backup running back Mark Ingram and last week, he saw three carries from inside the 10-yard line. With 6-10 carries in his range of outcomes, Hill remains a risky, yet viable, TE2 play. Juwan Johnson is also in play, as he could easily finish first or second on this team in targets. Johnson is 11th among tight ends in fantasy points per snap this season (0.21), while ranking eighth in end zone targets (6) and 10th in red zone targets (15).

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 45, KC -12.5
Pace: KC: 27.1 sec/snap (12th), DEN: 26.85 sec/snap (10th)

Key news: Greg Dulcich is questionable to play with a hamstring injury.

Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes is really good. You should probably start him. He’s scored multiple touchdowns in each of his last four games and has finished as a top-12 fantasy signal caller in all but two games this season. Denver’s pass defense has been good for most of the season, but this team may simply be throwing in the towel, especially after that putrid performance against the Rams on Christmas Day. Mahomes did throw three interceptions when he faced the Broncos in Week 14 but still passed for 352 yards and three scores in that game. 

Running Back

Jerick McKinnon has not heard of regression. He caught another touchdown pass last week, giving him a touchdown in each of his last four games, scoring a total of six touchdowns during that span. He only had eight touches this week but continues to see strong passing game usage, especially when the Chiefs get into scoring position. His 13 red zone targets over the course of the season are the second-most among all running backs, trailing only Austin Ekeler’s 20 red zone looks. Five of McKinnon’s 13 red zone targets have come over the last four weeks. He should continue to see 8-12 touches in one of the league’s top offenses, which keeps him in flex consideration, regardless of matchup. Isaiah Pacheco, meanwhile, carried the ball 14 times for 58 yards last week, adding a 32-yard reception. Because the passing game usage is underwhelming, Pacheco has to find the end zone to have a very good fantasy outing, something he hasn’t done since Week 13. The rookie, despite ceding work to McKinnon, is still averaging a respectable 16.7 touches per game since Week 10. The Chiefs are huge home favorites here, which is the exact gamescript you want for Pacheco.

Wide Receiver

JuJu Smith-Schuster had a quiet game last week, catching just three passes for 27 yards. He’s been a bit up-and-down as of late, but he’s still dominating snaps and routes and when you are the number-one wide receiver in a Mahomes-led offense, the splash games are going to come. This isn’t the greatest of matchups, but Smith-Schuster did catch nine passes for 74 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos back in Week 14. JuJu remains a WR3 against his new division rival.

Tight End

Travis Kelce “only” had 71 yards against Denver a few weeks ago. It just shows how insanely high Kelce’s floor is, as the Hall of Fame tight end has had at least 90 receiving yards or a touchdown in 12-of-15 games this season. The Broncos just struggled to contain Tyler Higbee last week, allowing nine catches for 94 yards and two touchdowns to the dormant tight end. If you have made it to your fantasy title game, Kelce is likely the reason why.

Broncos

Quarterback

I just don’t know what to say about this Broncos offense anymore. Russell Wilson returned from a concussion last week and struggled mightily, completing 15-of-27 passes for 214 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions against the Rams. Wilson has obviously struggled all year long, though he does face a Kansas City team that allowed him to post vintage Russ numbers back in Week 14. During that game, Wilson threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns, and while it is unlikely he has an encore performance this time around, it certainly isn’t out of the equation. Kansas City is allowing the highest passing touchdown rate in the league this season (5.7%), as well as the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (19.3). Opposing offenses are averaging 36.3 pass attempts per game this season, the fifth most in football. We’ll see how much this offense changes with Nathaniel Hackett gone and while he obviously carries tremendous risk, I’m not completely dismissing Wilson as a viable streaming option this week.

Running Back

With the Broncos trailing 31-3 at halftime last week, the gamescript was certainly not in Latavius Murray’s favor. The veteran running back touched the ball just nine times for 37 yards, while logging 46% of the snaps. Of course, we could see a similar gamescript this week, while the Chiefs have been a pass funnel defense on the season. 67.8% of the yardage gained against Kansas City has come through the air, the 10th-highest rate in football, while 79.4% of the touchdowns scored against this defense have been via the pass, the highest rate in the league. Chase Edmonds returned last week and took away some passing downs snaps from Murray. If Denver can stay in this game, Murray can get 15 touches but if not, well, you saw what can happen. He is a low-ceiling flex play at best.

Wide Receiver

It is pretty evident that Jerry Jeudy is the WR1 in Denver right now. Granted, a lot of his production as of late came with Courtland Sutton sidelined, but he was productive last week even with Sutton healthy, catching six passes for 117 yards. He was targeted 10 times, giving him an average of nine targets per game over his last three contests. In Sutton’s absence Weeks 14-15, Jeudy moved to the perimeter, playing out wide 81.6% of the time during those games. And even with Sutton active this past weekend, Jeudy continued to play on the outside, lining up there just over 88% of the time. Freddie Swain, meanwhile, operated the slot role. Jeudy playing on the outside gives him more upside, especially since Wilson has historically targeted the boundaries, as opposed to the middle of the field, which was where Jeudy was mostly operating when he was lining up in the slot. This is a great matchup for Jeudy, as the Chiefs are surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts on the season. Jeudy just torched them for three touchdowns a few weeks ago and will see primary coverage from Joshua Williams, who is allowing a gaudy 0.38 fantasy points per coverage route this season. He has allowed six touchdowns, 15.5 yards per reception and a 130.4 passer rating in coverage this season. Jeudy did find himself on the injury report with an ankle injury but as long as he is active, he is a low-end WR2, especially since the Chiefs are playing man coverage at a top-eight rate in football. That bodes well for Jeudy, who leads the NFL in yards per route run against man coverage this season (4.81).

Sutton, meanwhile, is an upside WR3. In his first game back from injury, Sutton logged 79% of the snaps for the Broncos, while running a route on 37-of-42 dropbacks (88%). He finished the day with five catches for 64 yards on seven targets and has the same fantastic matchup as Jeudy. And given the fact that the Broncos should be throwing all game, there will be enough volume for both Denver wide receivers to see plenty of work. 

Tight End

Greg Dulcich is dealing with a hamstring injury and could miss this game. He was targeted eight times last week, catching four passes for 39 yards and a touchdown. If he is active, Dulcich will be on the TE1/TE2 borderline against a Chiefs defense that is allowing the fifth-most touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends (0.53). If Dulcich is out, Albert Okwuegbunam will be back in our lives again, though he’d likely form a committee with Eric Tomlinson and Eric Saubert.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Total: 41.5, NE -3
Pace: NE: 28.25 sec/snap (20th), MIA: 28.31 sec/snap (21st)

Key news: Tua Tagovailoa is in the concussion protocol and will not play this week.

Patriots

Quarterback

Mac Jones passed for 240 yards and a pair of scores last week, though it was insanely fluky and he should still not be started in most fantasy formats. I guess the matchup is favorable enough to consider him in superflex leagues, as the Dolphins are surrendering the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (20.3). Still, Jones has just two games all season long with multiple touchdown passes and ranks 31st among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback on the year (0.35).

Running Back

Two weeks removed from an ankle injury, Rhamondre Stevenson remained the clear every-down running back for the Patriots last week, logging 91% of the snaps. He touched the ball 15 times for just 33 yards, while losing a fumble, so it was obviously a rough performance. The usage in the passing game has come down as of late, as Stevenson has just six total receptions over his last three games. You would like this to be the spot where Stevenson’s passing game usage increases again, as the Dolphins have been really good against the run but vulnerable to pass-catching running backs. Miami is coughing up the seventh-most receptions per game to opposing backfields on the year (5.6), as well as the seventh-most targets per game to the position (7.1). Damien Harris (thigh) could play this week, but after missing four consecutive games, he is likely to be limited in some capacity. Stevenson should see 15-18 touches regardless and is still a top-20 fantasy running back.

Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers caught 6-of-7 targets for 83 yards and a touchdown last week, though the score was incredibly fluky on a fourth-and-30 Hail Mary where Kendrick Bourne swatted the ball down to Meyers in the end zone. Bourne got the assist on that play but also scored a touchdown on his six receptions for 100 yards. He was targeted nine times. Regardless, if I can help it, I still don’t want to start any New England pass-catchers in the fantasy championship. 

Tight End

The New England tight ends are banged up right now. Hunter Henry left last week’s game with a knee injury, limiting him to just three offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Jonnu Smith, who was operating as an every-down tight end in Henry’s absence, suffered a concussion. If one of Henry or Smith are sidelined this week, the active tight end would see a huge workload and would become a really viable tight end play, especially against a Miami defense that is allowing the third-most fantasy points (15.8), second-most receptions (6.0), fifth-most targets (7.5) and sixth-most receiving yards per game (58.7) per game to opposing tight ends. Keep an eye on this situation over the course of the week.

Dolphins

Quarterback

With Tua Tagovailoa unfortunately back in the concussion protocol, Teddy Bridgewater will start at quarterback for the Dolphins this week. He’s played meaningful snaps in two games this season and has done more than enough to keep this offense afloat, even scoring over 20 fantasy points in a home start against the Vikings in Week 6. While I do believe this Miami offense can still thrive and the Patriots pass defense is slightly overrated, I still don’t think you have to consider Bridgewater as a fantasy starter this weekend. 

Running Back

Jeff Wilson missed Week 15 against the Bills with a hip injury, which led to Raheem Mostert handling 18 touches and logging 76% of the snaps. However, Wilson returned this weekend, logging 30 snaps to Mostert’s 26. Mostert started the game and was efficient, rushing for 45 yards on eight carries. He did lose a fumble, however, which led to Wilson scoring a short-yardage touchdown. Wilson also played more third downs and every snap in the two-minute drill, but a 50/50 split is already frustrating, especially ahead of a matchup with an elite Patriots run defense. Just 8.7% of the runs against the Patriots this season have gained 10 or more yards, the third-lowest rate in the league, while no team has allowed fewer rushing touchdowns per game to opposing backfields (0.20). Both Miami running backs are mid-range flex plays.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both eclipsed 100 yards last week, though their numbers fell off in the second half as Miami’s passing game couldn’t keep it going. Waddle has now recorded consecutive 100-yard, one-touchdown games, while Hill has been as good as it gets all season long. Bridgewater starting at quarterback does nothing to change how I view the Miami wideouts for fantasy purposes and we saw Teddy willing to take plenty of deep shots in the two games he’s played this season. In Weeks 4 and 6, Bridgewater attempted six deep passes on 64 dropbacks and we know that the Dolphins offense will continue to run through Hill and Waddle. Hill still leads the league in targets per route run (34%), while Waddle’s yards per reception mark has doubled from his rookie season. Start both wide receivers with plenty of confidence in the finals.

Tight End

Technically, yes, Mike Gesicki does play for the Miami Dolphins. But since Week 12, the athletic tight end has caught a grand total of two passes for 29 yards on seven targets. Yikes.

New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks

Total: 42.5, SEA -1.5
Pace: SEA: 27.31 sec/snap (14th), NYJ: 26.98 sec/snap (11th)

Key news: Mike White will once again start at QB for the Jets. For Seattle, Tyler Lockett could return this week.

Seahawks

Quarterback

A pair of tough spots have led to Geno Smith posting consecutive one-touchdown games. It is new for Smith, who has scored multiple touchdowns in 11 of 15 games on the season. Of course, a matchup with San Francisco and then a road game in Arrowhead without Tyler Lockett aren’t easy, and hopefully Lockett will be back for Seattle this weekend. Unfortunately, the matchups don’t get easier for Smith, who hosts a stout Jets defense that is surrendering the lowest passing touchdown rate (2.6%), fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.4) and fifth-fewest yards per completion (10.3) on the season. The Jets are also surrendering the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (14.5), while only the 49ers are coughing up fewer points per drive this season (1.57). If Lockett is active, I’d still trust Smith as a high-end QB2, but I wouldn’t rank him as a QB1 this weekend.

Running Back

Kenneth Walker got all of the work for Seattle last week, recording a whopping 28 touches for 105 total yards. He didn’t practice all last week with an ankle injury but still played Saturday, logging 53% of the snaps, his lowest snap share in a full game since Week 4. With Travis Homer leaving the game, Walker didn’t see an uptick in passing game usage. Instead, DeeJay Dallas took over that role, playing 19-of-24 snaps in the two-minute drill and 7-of-10 third downs. Walker will miss some practice time again this week, but I fully expect him to play and as long as he does, he’ll be a solid number-two running back, despite a tough matchup with a very good Jets defense.

Wide Receiver

With Tyler Lockett out last week, DK Metcalf caught seven passes for 81 yards on nine targets, sporting a 24% target share. He was also insanely close to scoring a touchdown, but he couldn’t quite get his second foot in bounds in time. Touchdown opportunities aren’t anything new for Metcalf, who ranks fourth in the league in percentage of team targets from inside the 10-yard line (36%) and first in target share from inside the red zone (39.7%). He does have a very tough matchup this week, facing a Jets team that has shut down perimeter wide receivers this season, as Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed have been arguably the best defensive back duo in football. Reed is only allowing 0.17 fantasy points per coverage route, while Gardner is allowing just 0.11 points per coverage route. This does downgrade Metcalf for me, but he’s still a low-end WR2. 

Lockett has a chance to play this week, but considering head coach Pete Carroll always displays optimism regarding injuries, we have to wait and see. If he is active, he is also a low-end WR2 that will be tough to get away from. He’s found the end zone in six of his last seven games and because he plays from the slot 42% of the time this season, he should avoid Gardner and Reed for nearly half of the game since both defensive backs don’t move around the formation.

Tight End

Noah Fant found the end zone last week, though he only saw three targets. There would be an opportunity for more usage this week, especially if Lockett remains sidelined. Will Dissly has been placed on injured reserve, which could lead to a full-time role for the first time all season for Fant. The Jets were good against tight ends for much of the season but have struggled as of late, surrendering strong games to each of the last three tight ends they have faced:

• Evan Engram: 7-113-0
• Brock Wright: 1-51-1
• Dawson Knox: 4-41-1

Jets

Quarterback

Now cleared from his rib injury, Mike White will return as the Jets starting quarterback this week. He is back on the streaming radar, especially since the Jets really trust him to air it out, as White is averaging 43 pass attempts per game in his three starts. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are surrendering the fourth-highest passing touchdown rate in the league this season (4.8%), while also coughing up 7.4 yards per pass attempt (seventh worst).

Running Back

If the Jets are finally going to find success running the football, it will be this week. Seattle has one of the worst run defenses in football, surrendering the second-most rushing yards per game (155.5). The Seahawks are also allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields to go along with the third-most rushing touchdowns per game to the running back position (0.93). Seattle is surrendering the ninth-most yards before contact per attempt (2.68), making this a great spot for Zonovan Knight to improve from his six-carry, -2-yard performance from last Thursday. He should see 14-18 touches against an atrocious run defense, making him a lot easier to trust this week. Since Week 9, Seattle is allowing 20.9 rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, easily the most in the league during that stretch.

Wide Receiver

With Mike White back at quarterback for the Jets, Garrett Wilson returns to must-start WR2 status. As we often discuss here, Wilson’s splits in games where Zach Wilson is not the starting quarterback for the Jets are pretty glaring. In nine games with Wilson under center, Garrett Wilson is averaging 6.3 targets, 3.7 receptions, 49.6 receiving yards and 8.8 PPR points per game. But in six games with any other quarterback for the Jets, Wilson is averaging 10.3 targets, 6.1 receptions, 91.5 receiving yards and 19.2 PPR points per game. Seattle has been good against wide receivers this season, especially on the perimeter, though Wilson does move around the formation, playing in the slot around 40% of the time. The Seahawks are allowing the fewest targets, fewest receptions and third-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts on the left side of the formation, which is where Wilson lines up plenty, as well. So this isn’t a slam dunk spot for Wilson but the talent is immense and the situation is much better for him this week. 

Tight End

Tyler Conklin is a high-end TE2 this week, mainly due to the matchup. Seattle is surrendering the second-most fantasy points (17.0) and most receiving yards per game (69.3) to opposing tight ends this season. The Jets offense should be more efficient and sustain more drives with White under center this week and if you are strictly chasing matchups at the tight end position this week, Conklin may be your best bet.

San Francisco 49ers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Total: 41.5, SF -9.5
Pace: LV: 27.91 sec/snap (17th), SF: 29.76 sec/snap (30th)

Key news: Derek Carr will not play for the remainder of the season. Jarrett Stidham will start at QB for the Raiders.

Raiders

Quarterback

With the Raiders season over and Derek Carr seemingly not part of their future plans, the team has benched the veteran quarterback for the final two weeks. Enjoy your first career start, Jarrett Stidham. It only comes against the best defense in all of football. Stidham obviously should not be started in any fantasy leagues, and it’ll be interesting to see how he impacts Las Vegas’ skill position players.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs had his worst game in a long time Saturday against the Steelers, rushing for 44 scoreless yards on 15 carries. There are some reports that the Raiders could also rest more veteran players but with the team having declined Jacobs’ fifth-year option before the season started, it seems likely they just let him finish the season out. Jacobs might be the only player from the Raiders that I am still starting, though I am absolutely tempering expectations. San Francisco has the best run defense in the world, as just 6.2% of the runs against the 49ers have gained 10 or more yards, easily the lowest rate in the league. No running back has even reached 60 rushing yards against this team this season, including Brian Robinson last week, who couldn’t even reach that mark on 22 carries. If Jacobs is active, I’d imagine he’ll be even more of a focal point of the offense than he has been all year, and he already leads the league in opportunity share (84%). Jacobs projects as more of a high-end RB2 this week.

Wide Receiver

It has been a rough stretch for Davante Adams. The All-Pro wideout has caught just 9-of-25 targets for 114 yards over the last three weeks and now will be catching passes from Jarrett Stidham. We’ll see if Adams rests or not, but even if he is active, you have to downgrade him quite a bit. San Francisco has been hurt by wide receivers as of late, as both Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson found the end zone against them last week. And the 49ers are now surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers over the course of the season. They have been more vulnerable to opposing slot wideouts, coughing up the seventh-most receptions (4.9), third-most receiving yards (67.5) and third-most fantasy points per game (14.5) to opposing slot receivers, which makes this an advantageous spot for Hunter Renfrow. Still, I’m not sure how much confidence you can have in any Raiders pass-catcher right now.

Tight End

In the two weeks since returning from injury, Darren Waller has made a few splash plays, posting receptions of 34 and 25 yards. His playing time has been pretty limited, however, logging 40% and 49% of the snaps during that span. With all the time he has missed this season, it would not at all surprise me to see Waller sit this game, especially given how limited he has been as of late. Even if he is active, Waller would be a very risky tight end start this week.

49ers

Quarterback

Despite seeing limited volume, Brock Purdy just keeps getting it done. He passed for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 22 attempts last week, giving him multiple touchdowns in all four games this season. Purdy is now averaging 0.57 fantasy points per dropback on the year, which would rank seventh in the league if he had enough dropbacks to qualify. The scheme has obviously been extremely helpful, as Purdy is getting the ball to his playmakers and letting them, well, make plays. 439 of Purdy’s 912 passing yards have come after the catch (48%), which isn’t much of a surprise given the offense he plays in. But it just shows how fantasy and quarterback friendly this San Francisco scheme is. With a matchup against the Raiders on tap, Purdy is a high-end QB2. Las Vegas is coughing up the seventh-most points (2.11), fifth-most yards (34.4) and third-most plays (6.3) per drive this season.

Running Back

It was a quiet game for Christian McCaffrey last week, as Washington’s stout run defense made things tough. Still, he found the end zone late in the game and remains an obvious top-three fantasy running back against a Raiders team that is allowing the second-most receptions (6.1), fourth-most targets (7.7) and most receiving yards (48.8) per game to opposing running backs on the season. Las Vegas has also been a pretty poor red zone defense this year, allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 62.8% of red zone trips, the sixth-worst rate in football. It is possible that McCaffrey’s touches are slightly limited if this game gets out of hand, but even if he sees 18-20 touches rather than 22-26, he should still be able to find a ton of success in this tremendous matchup.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Aiyuk’s usage has definitely been underwhelming in Deebo Samuel’s absence. Over the last two weeks, Aiyuk has been targeted just 11 times, catching seven passes for 100 yards. Assuming Samuel doesn’t return this week, Aiyuk will remain a high-end WR3, and it was good to see him get back on track last week, hauling in 5-of-7 targets for 81 yards. He has a solid matchup with Amik Robertson, who is surrendering a healthy 0.25 fantasy points per coverage route over the course of the season. 

Tight End

Clearly, George Kittle has benefited the most from the absence of Deebo Samuel. Over the last two weeks, Kittle has reminded everyone that when he’s involved in the offense, he’s as good as any tight end in the league, posting stat lines of 4-93-2 and 6-120-2. His YAC ability remains the best in the league, and it has been showcased quite a bit over the last two games. Kittle should be able to keep it going this week, facing a Raiders defense that is coughing up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (13.2), as well as the eighth-most receptions (5.2) and ninth-most targets (7.3) per game to the position. With the Raiders also allowing the seventh-most yards after the catch in football (1,846), Kittle is in a prime spot once again this week.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Total: 48, GB -3.5
Pace: GB: 29.82 sec/snap (31st), MIN: 26.4 sec/snap (4th)

Key news: Aaron Jones has been dealing with multiple injuries, while Christian Watson is questionable to play with a hip injury.

Packers

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers certainly wasn’t perfect last week but did enough to help Green Bay win a huge game in Miami. He passed for 238 yards, one touchdown and one interception, making it Rodgers’ third consecutive game with just one touchdown. Rodgers has also yet to reach the 300-yard mark in a game this season but a home matchup with the Vikings could be just what it takes for the Hall of Fame passer to have a rare ceiling game in 2022. Since Week 10, the Vikings have allowed six quarterbacks to finish as top-12 fantasy options against them, while 5-of-7 quarterbacks during that span have passed for at least 300 yards, including Daniel Jones last week, who hadn’t reached the 300-yard mark all year. Rodgers has certainly failed in strong matchups this season, but Minnesota games have consistently resulted in high-scoring affairs, as opponents are scoring points on 41.9% of drives against the Vikings this season, the third-highest rate in the league. Rodgers is a high-end QB2 for me this week.

Running Back

Aaron Jones clearly isn’t 100% healthy right now. He continues to deal with multiple injuries, which has limited him to 38%, 56% and 38% of the offensive snaps over the last three games. It does have me a bit worried about Jones going forward, even if he is active Sunday. Green Bay has a very capable running back to give more work to if Jones isn’t fully healthy in AJ Dillon, who has found the end zone in each of his last four games, scoring a total of five times during that span. And in those last four games, Dillon is averaging a healthy 14.7 touches per game, while catching at least three passes in all but one game. The Green Bay running backs are in a very similar spot here as they were last week, facing a Minnesota run defense that has been good against the run but vulnerable to running backs catching passes out of the backfield. On the season, the Vikings are coughing up the sixth-most receptions per game to opposing running backs (5.7), as well as the ninth-most receiving yards (42.4) and seventh-most targets (7.1) per game to the position. If active, Jones is a lower-end number-two running back that still has plenty of pass-catching upside, while Dillon is a relatively reliable flex play, though he’ll likely need a touchdown.

Wide Receiver

We’ll have to see if Christian Watson plays this week, as he left Sunday’s game with a hip injury. He was on his way to a very good game and could have a monster performance if he plays this weekend. Minnesota has arguably the most exploitable pass defense in the league, surrendering the most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers on the season. Since Week 9, the Vikings are allowing 1.79 fantasy points per target to opposing wideouts, the seventh-most in the league during that span. And since Week 10, Watson is second in the league with seven end zone targets, while his 18 red zone targets during that span are the fourth-most in the league. They even lined Watson up in the backfield last week on a play that he should have scored a touchdown on. In this dream matchup, Watson is a top-24 wide receiver if he is active. If not, Allen Lazard becomes a high-end WR3 with top-20 upside. He was targeted 11 times last week, catching just five passes for 61 yards, though he’d likely see 7-10 targets if Watson is out of the lineup. Minnesota just allowed both Isaiah Hodgins and Richie James to eclipse 80 receiving yards against them last week.

Tight End

Robert Tonyan has not eclipsed two targets in each of his last three games, while failing to surpass 20 receiving yards in each of his past six games. Do not start him with your fantasy hopes on the line. 

Vikings

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins is rolling right now, throwing 15 touchdown passes to just three interceptions over his last five games. Minnesota’s ground game hasn’t really delivered as of late, forcing Cousins and the aerial attack to do much of the heavy lifting. Cousins has attempted at least 35 passes in every game since Week 12 and now faces a Green Bay defense that is surrendering the 10th-highest completion rate in football (65.8%), as well as the third-highest passing touchdown rate at 4.9%. With Minnesota’s defense not doing them any favors, look for Cousins to air it out once again. The veteran remains a low-end QB1 in this NFC North showdown.

Running Back

Dalvin Cook is coming off a quiet game against a weak Giants run defense. The good news, however, is that Cook gets a second consecutive strong matchup this week, facing a Green Bay defense that is coughing up the sixth-most rushing yards per game on the season (144.4), as well as the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. 13.3% of the runs against the Packers have gone for 10 or more yards, a top-10 rate in the league, which bodes well for Cook, who hasn’t ripped off many explosive runs this season. Cook is still dominating this Minnesota backfield, averaging a healthy 20.4 touches per game over his last five outings. Keep treating Cook as a low-end RB1 in this favorable matchup.

Wide Receiver

These teams last met all the way back in Week 1 — in that game, Justin Jefferson got the season off to a roaring start. The All-Pro wideout caught nine passes for 184 yards and a pair of touchdowns, as he constantly got open against Green Bay’s zone defense. And half of the time, Jefferson was lined up against safeties and linebackers, which is the largest mismatch in all of football. Green Bay defensive back Jaire Alexander stated how he wanted to cover Jefferson, which could happen this week. Regardless, Jefferson will get his, as he has reached the 100-yard mark in 10-of-15 games on the season. And if Green Bay continues to run a ton of zone defense, which they have done most of the season, Jefferson could feast. According to Player Profiler, Jefferson is averaging a gaudy 2.31 fantasy points per target against zone coverage, while his 2.93 yards per route run against zone coverage is the third-best mark in the league. The likely Offensive Player of the Year, Jefferson should continue to help fantasy rosters in the championship week.

Adam Thielen continues to take a backseat. When the season started, he was the clear number-two option in this Minnesota passing game. But now, the veteran wideout is the clear No. 3, as Thielen’s target share is hovering right around 15% since the Vikings acquired T.J. Hockenson. Thielen caught just one pass for six yards last week and has only reached the 70-yard mark once all season long. He does produce more against zone-heavy defenses, but Thielen is a touchdown-or-bust flex play right now.

Tight End

It is insane how good Hockenson has been since joining the Vikings. No tight end in football has caught more passes (52) since Hockenson was traded to Minnesota, while his 69 targets trail only Travis Kelce at the position. Hockenson also ranks first in red zone targets (17), second in end zone targets (5) and fourth in target share (22.4%) during that span. He remains a top-three tight end against a Green Bay defense that has allowed seven touchdown receptions to the position on the year, the seventh most in football.

Los Angeles Rams @ Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 42.5, LAC -6.5
Pace: LAC: 25.98 sec/snap (2nd), LAR: 29.39 sec/snap (29th)

Key news: Joey Bosa has been designated for return for the Chargers. It’s not yet clear if he’ll play this week.

Chargers

Quarterback

Justin Herbert had an awful fantasy game last week, throwing for 235 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception. He also lost a fumble. Herbert has been pretty unlucky in the touchdown department lately, as he hasn’t scored a touchdown in two weeks. The Chargers have converted all of their goal-line plays into rushing touchdowns lately, which has limited Herbert’s upside. Over the last two weeks, the Chargers are sporting a 73.9% rush rate in the red zone, the sixth-highest rate in the league during that span. The season-long touchdown rate has been a step backward for Herbert, but it is still difficult to get away from him as at least a low-end QB1. 

Running Back

With Herbert not finding the end zone, Austin Ekeler has been. He scored two more touchdowns Monday, giving him 16 on the year and four over his last three games. Granted, the overall yardage hasn’t been great, as Ekeler has failed to eclipse 67 rushing yards since Week 11, but he continues to make up for it by finding the end zone and making his usual impact in the passing game. Ekeler is sporting a healthy 19.6% target share on the season, the highest rate among all running backs. The Rams have been very good against the run this season, but Ekeler obviously belongs in your starting lineup.

Wide Receiver

Against the zone-heavy Colts defense last week, it wasn’t a surprise to see Keenan Allen thrive. The veteran slot wideout hauled in 11-of-14 targets for 104 yards and continues to see an absurd amount of volume. Since returning to action in Week 11, Allen is averaging 11 targets per game, while seeing 14 targets in three of those outings. During that span, Allen’s 27.8% target share is the ninth-highest rate in football. The Rams are also a team that plays a lot of zone coverage, though a lot of it is with Jalen Ramsey, making this clearly a much more difficult matchup for Allen than last week. Still, with 85-plus receiving yards in each of his last four games, Allen projects as a high-end, high floor WR2.

Mike Williams, meanwhile, is usually more productive against man coverage, though he still delivered with a solid performance last week, catching all four of his targets for 76 yards. His targets have unsurprisingly taken a hit with Allen back, but Williams continues to do the most with the looks he does get. This is an interesting spot for Williams, as the Rams are surrendering the second-most targets (8.0), second-most receptions (5.8), third-most receiving yards (71.0) and third-most fantasy points (14.5) per game to opposing wide receivers on the left side of the formation, which is where Williams lines up over half of the time. There is still so much upside for Williams, who can be started as a lower-end WR2.

Tight End

Gerald Everett is tough to trust in the fantasy title week. With both Allen and Williams healthy, Everett’s involvement in this Chargers offense has faded a bit. He is coming off a game where he wasn’t even targeted and with Donald Parham Jr. active, Everett’s playing time is also coming down a bit. 

Rams

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield and the Rams are coming off a game where they did whatever they wanted to a really tough Denver defense. Mayfield completed an impressive 24-of-28 passes for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns and while he obviously isn’t putting up insane numbers, he is making this Rams offense much more viable. I don’t envision many scenarios where you are starting Mayfield in fantasy unless you are really hurting at your QB2 spot in a superflex league. Especially considering the Chargers defense is playing really well lately, ranking seventh in the league in EPA per play since Week 10.

Running Back

What a crazy year it has been for Cam Akers. The second-year running back was a mid-round fantasy selection, was deemed a bust, requested a trade, didn’t get traded and then was out of the rotation. And now? Akers is legitimately winning fantasy championships, especially with his Week 16 performance of 118 yards and three touchdowns on 23 carries. Akers was the clear lead back last week, logging 76% of the snaps, running a route on 20-of-20 dropbacks (69%) and handling 25-of-35 running back touches. He has now scored six touchdowns over his last four games, while ranking sixth among all running backs in missed tackles forced during that stretch (15). His four runs of 15-plus yards are also tied for the fifth-most in the league during that span. Akers remains a solid RB2 against a vulnerable Chargers run defense that is allowing 2.9 yards before contact per attempt on the year, the fourth-most in football. The Chargers are also coughing up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, making this a great spot for Akers to find continued success.

Wide Receiver

Look, it’s the fantasy championship. I am not starting any of the Rams wide receivers. 

Tight End

Where the hell has this been, Tyler Higbee? After showing almost no upside all year long, Higbee exploded for nine receptions for 94 yards and two touchdowns against the Broncos last week. His usage has been tough to trust as of late, as some games he’ll be running routes, and others he’ll be blocking. But last week, Higbee ran a route on 24-of-29 dropbacks (83%) and over the past two weeks, he has run a route on 39-of-56 dropbacks (70%). With Ben Skowronek out, the Rams are running more 12 personnel, which is good for Higbee, who has developed a nice rapport with Mayfield, scoring three touchdowns over the last two weeks. Between the momentum he is gaining and the state of the tight end position, Higbee has re-entered the TE1 conversation. 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Total: 35, BAL -2.5
Pace: BAL: 30.02 sec/snap (32nd), PIT: 28.23 sec/snap (19th)

Key news: Lamar Jackson (PCL) could miss his fourth consecutive game.

Ravens

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson continues to recover from a PCL sprain. after not practicing Thursday, it seems likely he will miss his fourth consecutive game. If that is the case, Tyler Huntley will once again start at quarterback for the Ravens, though he remains a low-ceiling QB2 in superflex formats. Huntley hasn’t reached 17 fantasy points in a start this season and attempted just 17 passes last game. The Steelers are a pass funnel defense, but I don’t see Baltimore getting away from the run regardless, while Pittsburgh’s pass defense has obviously been much improved with T.J. Watt back in the lineup. 

Running Back

Baltimore continues to establish the run with both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, who are in close to a 50/50 split. Last week, Dobbins carried the ball 12 times for 59 yards, while Edwards rushed for 99 yards on 11 carries. Dobbins logged 22 snaps while Edwards played 11, which puts both players as flex options, though this is a really tough matchup. The Steelers have one of the best run defenses in the NFL and just held Josh Jacobs to 44 yards on 15 carries. Just 8.9% of the runs against this Steelers defense have gained 10 or more yards this season, the fourth-lowest rate in the league, while they are surrendering the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

Wide Receiver

Fifteen wide receivers have reached 95 receiving yards or scored a touchdown against the Steelers this season. However, I still don’t want to start any wide receivers from the Ravens with my fantasy hopes and dreams on the line.

Tight End

Mark Andrews hasn’t reached 60 yards or found the end zone since Week 6. I still think he is dealing with some sort of injury and although things have been rough, I’m not sure how many scenarios there are out there where teams have a better option at tight end available. Unless you added Evan Engram off waivers, you most likely have to continue to roll Andrews out there and hope he breaks out of this slump. 

Steelers

Quarterback

Kenny Pickett appears to get better every week, and that continued on Christmas Eve when the rookie completed 26-of-39 passes for 244 yards and the game-winning touchdown pass against the Raiders. Still, Pickett is hardly on the fantasy radar, especially in a game with a total of just 35 points. 

Running Back

After seeing a drop in passing game usage, it was great to see Najee Harris targeted nine times Saturday night. He caught six passes for 42 yards against the Raiders, on top of rushing for 53 yards on 16 carries. Harris continues to lose plenty of third down snaps to Jaylen Warren, who recorded seven touches in the game, but Harris should continue to see (at worst) 15-18 touches per game, which keeps him in the low-end RB2 range. This is an absolutely awful matchup for opposing running backs, as the Ravens are surrendering the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Since Week 9, Baltimore is coughing up just 1.4 yards before contact per rush, easily the lowest mark in the league during that span, while only allowing 7.3 rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs in that stretch, the fewest in football. It is tough to see Harris, who normally isn’t very efficient, shine in this incredibly difficult matchup.

Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson continues to have a relatively strong floor and limited ceiling. He caught five passes for 64 yards last week and, as you might have guessed, did not find the end zone. Johnson has had at least 60 receiving yards in four of his last five games, while catching at least five passes five consecutive games. When he last faced this Baltimore defense, Johnson caught six passes for 82 yards, which you’ll take from him at this point, just don’t expect him to find the end zone. He is a mid-range WR3, while rookie George Pickens is a boom-or-bust flex play, although he has seen five targets in each of the last two games. Pickens sees multiple deep targets per game when Pickett is under center and will have opportunities to connect on splash plays against a Baltimore secondary that is allowing the highest completion rate on passes 20-plus yards down the field on the season (57.7%). Pickens hauled in a 42-yard pass against the Ravens in Week 14, finishing the day with 78 receiving yards.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth’s usage was trending downward as of late, possibly due to injury. However, last weekend, he got back on track, running a route on 36-of-40 snaps and logging about 81% of the offensive snaps. He finished the day with seven receptions on eight targets for 66 yards and not that you were benching him anyway, you certainly feel a lot more confident in Freiermuth heading into the fantasy championship.

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 49.5, BUF -1
Pace: CIN: 27.65 sec/snap (16th), BUF: 26.6 sec/snap (8th)

Key news: Bengals RT La’el Collins will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL.

Bengals

Quarterback

Joe Burrow just torched the Patriots defense to the tune of 375 yards, three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions last week. He’s now tossed multiple touchdowns in each of his last four games and will look to keep it going against a Buffalo defense that is allowing the seventh-lowest passing touchdown rate on the year (3.4%). Buffalo is also surrendering the sixth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.6) and eighth-fewest yards per completion (10.4), while ranking top-12 in pressure rate (23.1%). Losing RT La’el Collins is definitely a concern but not enough to even remotely consider sitting Burrow in a game that could feature plenty of points. 

Running Back

Joe Mixon returned from a concussion three weeks ago, but he hasn’t reached the 65% snap share in a game since. Mixon logged 59% of the snaps last week, carrying the ball 16 times for 65 yards, while adding seven receptions for 43 yards. The overall volume was great, and while Samaje Perine did play over 40% of the snaps, he only recorded seven touches, largely due to the fact that the Bengals were dominating the game in the first half. A matchup with the Bills is interesting, as they can certainly be vulnerable against the run, which has been the case as of late. Since Week 9, Buffalo is surrendering 2.59 yards before contact per rush to opposing running backs, the sixth-most in the league during that span, while also allowing 4.7 yards per carry. All of a sudden, the Bills have missed 76 tackles this season, the sixth-most in football. Mixon is on the RB1/RB2 borderline for Monday’s matchup.

Wide Receiver

You are obviously starting Ja’Marr Chase, who is seeing absurd volume at the moment. Chase has seen double-digit targets in each of his last three games, averaging an insane 13.3 targets per game during that span. He’s scored two touchdowns during that stretch of games and should continue to post top-five numbers this week. Tee Higgins is also a start. He is coming off a great game against the Patriots, catching 8-of-9 targets for 128 yards and a touchdown. Since returning from his hamstring injury that sidelined him in Week 14, Higgins has seen 17 targets, catching two touchdowns, and has now found the end zone in each of his last four full games.

Tight End

Hayden Hurst hasn’t played since Week 13 with a calf injury but practiced in full Thursday, putting him on track to return on Monday. With the Bengals at full strength at wide receiver, Hurst is a very risky tight end streamer, especially against a Buffalo defense that has yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end this season, the only team in the league that can say that.

Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen’s passing numbers haven’t been the greatest, but it hasn’t stopped him from scoring a ton of fantasy points. In Chicago last week, he only threw for 172 yards but threw two touchdown passes, while adding 41 yards and an additional score on the ground. The Bengals definitely present a tough matchup, as only one signal caller has reached the 300-yard mark against Cincinnati this season. Still, you are obviously starting Allen in every single format imaginable. 

Running Back

If I can help it, I’d avoid the Buffalo backfield this week. Granted, the Bills have been running the ball really well lately, but with James Cook’s emergence, Devin Singletary’s usage has taken a bit of a hit. Both running backs shined against a bad Chicago defense last week, as Singletary rushed for 106 yards and a score on 12 carries and Cook rushed for 99 and a touchdown on 11 attempts. Singletary ended up playing 58% of the snaps while Cook logged 41%, but the rookie continues to warrant more touches. Among qualified running backs this season, Cook leads the league in yards per attempt (5.8), while 13.7% of his rushing attempts have gained 10 or more yards this season. This is a tough spot, however, as the Bengals are a tough run defense whenever DJ Reader is active. And on the year, Cincinnati is allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Singletary and Cook are middling flex plays.

Wide Receiver

It has been a rough stretch for Stefon Diggs, as the Pro Bowl wideout has caught just 10 passes for 123 scoreless yards on 16 targets over the last three weeks. Josh Allen stated that he has to get Diggs more involved, so perhaps this is the week where Diggs returns to seeing 10-plus targets. Regardless of his recent struggles, you aren’t benching Diggs, especially in a matchup against rookie defensive back Cam Taylor-Britt, who is allowing 0.27 fantasy points per coverage route over the course of the season. Meanwhile, Gabe Davis found the end zone last week and has seen at least six targets in three of his last four games. Of course, he remains a volatile WR3 for the championship and a matchup against Eli Apple makes for a boom-or-bust spot. Apple is allowing 14.3 yards per reception in coverage this season, as well as a 13.7-yard aDOT, the 13th-highest rate among qualified defensive backs.

Tight End

Dawson Knox is a borderline must-start tight end. He is rolling right now, scoring a touchdown in each of his last three games, seeing a healthy 20 targets during that span. Allen has done a better job of taking the short passes when teams are playing two-high against the Bills, and it has led to more involvement for Knox. The Bengals have been a middle-of-the-road matchup for opposing tight ends on the year.