Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 17 fantasy football start/sit column, where I have detailed which players you should start and sit this week based on their recent trends, matchups and other game contexts.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Week 17 Start/Sit: Quarterbacks
Jared Goff, Lions vs. Bears (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 7th, +1 vs. consensus (8th)
+ Venue: Jared Goff has averaged 1.1 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last three seasons.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Vikings (34 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 9th, +2 vs. consensus (11th)
+ Venue: Aaron Rodgers has averaged 1.9 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last three seasons.
Tom Brady, Bucs vs. Panthers (70 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 12th, +2 vs. consensus (14th)
+ Efficiency: Tom Brady has thrown just 21 touchdowns but has 30.27 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 9.27-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.11 per game in 2022, tied for eighth most in football.
Brock Purdy, 49ers at Raiders (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 13th, +2 vs. consensus (15th)
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
– Efficiency: Brock Purdy has thrown 8 touchdowns but has just 3.76 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that sixth highest 4.24-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Mike White, Jets at Seahawks (41 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 15th, +1 vs. consensus (16th)
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.15 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Russell Wilson, Broncos at Chiefs (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 17th, +1 vs. consensus (18th)
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Mac Jones, Patriots vs. Dolphins (52 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 20th, +1 vs. consensus (21st)
+ Venue: Mac Jones has averaged 3.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two seasons.
Colt McCoy, Cardinals at Falcons (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 24th, +1 vs. consensus (25th)
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Davis Mills, Texans vs. Jaguars (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 25th, +1 vs. consensus (26th)
+ Venue: Davis Mills has averaged 6.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two seasons.
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings at Packers (34 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 10th, -1 vs. consensus (11th)
– Venue: Kirk Cousins has averaged 1.7 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last three seasons.
+ Efficiency: Cousins has thrown just 27 touchdowns but has 29.52 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.52-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Daniel Jones, Giants vs. Colts (52 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 11th, -1 vs. consensus (10th)
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Gardner Minshew, Eagles vs. Saints (52 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 14th, -2 vs. consensus (12th)
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.16 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Geno Smith, Seahawks vs. Jets (41 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 16th, -3 vs. consensus (13th)
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.37 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Deshaun Watson, Browns at Commanders (53 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 18th, -1 vs. consensus (17th)
– Opponent: The Commanders have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.09 per game in 2022, tied for 10th most in football.
+ Efficiency: Deshaun Watson has thrown just 2 touchdowns but has 6.63 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that seventh biggest 4.63-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Week 17 Start/Sit: Running Backs
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons vs. Cardinals (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 20th, +3 vs. consensus (23rd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tyler Allgeier for 16.8 carries + targets this week, 19th at his position (he has averaged 13.3 carries + targets since Cordarrelle Patterson came off injured reserve in Week 9 but seemed to see a workload bump in Week 16 after the Falcons were eliminated from playoff contention).
+ Efficiency: Allgeier has just 3 touchdowns but has 5.18 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.18-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, tied for sixth most in football.
Leonard Fournette, Bucs vs. Panthers (70 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 21st, +1 vs. consensus (22nd)
+ Efficiency: Leonard Fournette has just 6 touchdowns but has 8.79 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.79-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
AJ Dillon, Packers vs. Vikings (34 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 26th, +1 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Opponent: The Vikings have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Zonovan Knight, Jets at Seahawks (41 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 28th, +1 vs. consensus (29th)
+ Efficiency: Zonovan Knight has just 1 touchdown but has 2.13 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.13-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Jamaal Williams, Lions vs. Bears (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 30th, +4 vs. consensus (34th)
+ Opponent: The Bears have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.59 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Hassan Haskins, Titans vs. Cowboys (56 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 34th, +13 vs. consensus (47th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Hassan Haskins for 18.5 carries + targets this week, tied for 12th at his position (he has out-snapped teammate Julius Chestnut 27 to 1 the last two weeks and seems poised to inherit Derrick Henry’s starting role with the Titans having nothing to play for this week).
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.31 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Khalil Herbert, Bears at Lions (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 45th, +3 vs. consensus (48th)
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.56 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs vs. Broncos (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -3 vs. consensus (19th)
– Volume: I am projecting Jerick McKinnon for 11.7 carries + targets this week, 40th at his position (he has averaged 10.5 carries + targets since Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw a reduced role in Week 9).
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
J.K. Dobbins, Ravens vs. Steelers (42 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 25th, -1 vs. consensus (24th)
– Volume: I am projecting J.K. Dobbins for 13.2 carries + targets this week, tied for 32nd at his position (he has averaged 12.7 carries + targets in six healthy games in 2022).
– Opponent: The Steelers have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs vs. Broncos (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 27th, -1 vs. consensus (26th)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
+ Efficiency: Isiah Pacheco has just 3 touchdowns but has 5.08 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.08-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
D’Onta Foreman, Panthers at Bucs (70 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 31st, -1 vs. consensus (30th)
– Opponent: The Bucs have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Latavius Murray, Broncos at Chiefs (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 36th, -1 vs. consensus (35th)
– Efficiency: Latavius Murray has 5 touchdowns but has just 3.56 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.34-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Chiefs have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.15 per game in 2022, 10th most in football.
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins at Patriots (52 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 38th, -5 vs. consensus (33rd)
– Opponent: The Patriots have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.37 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Chuba Hubbard, Panthers at Bucs (70 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 40th, -2 vs. consensus (38th)
– Opponent: The Bucs have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Jeff Wilson, Dolphins at Patriots (52 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 41st, -2 vs. consensus (39th)
– Opponent: The Patriots have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.37 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Week 17 Start/Sit: Wide Receivers
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos at Chiefs (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 18th, +1 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Mike Evans, Bucs vs. Panthers (70 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 19th, +1 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Efficiency: Mike Evans has caught just 3 touchdowns but has 5.85 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 2.85-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: C.J. Henderson has allowed a 70% catch rate this season, tied for seventh worst among outside cornerbacks with 300 or more coverage snaps, and he will play a de facto No. 1 corner role with Jaycee Horn out with a wrist injury.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers at Raiders (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 22nd, +1 vs. consensus (23rd)
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Amari Cooper, Browns at Commanders (53 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 23rd, +2 vs. consensus (25th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Amari Cooper for 8.7 targets this week, 16th at his position (he has averaged 8.3 targets in 2022 and returned to his typical 89% snap share in Week 16 after a core/hip injury limited him the week before).
– Opponent: The Commanders have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.09 per game in 2022, tied for 10th most in football.
Michael Pittman, Colts at Giants (52 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 24th, +2 vs. consensus (25th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Michael Pittman for 9.0 targets this week, tied for 14th at his position (he has averaged 9.1 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Pittman has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 3.31 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.31-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Drake London, Falcons vs. Cardinals (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 28th, +2 vs. consensus (30th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Drake London for 7.9 targets this week, 21st at his position (he has averaged 6.7 targets in 2022 and 10.0 the last two weeks with Desmond Ridder at quarterback).
Courtland Sutton, Broncos at Chiefs (45 degrees and partly)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 33rd, +3 vs. consensus (36th)
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, the most in football.
+ Efficiency: Courtland Sutton has caught just 1 touchdown but has 5.39 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 4.39-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Brandin Cooks, Texans vs. Jaguars (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 39th, +1 vs. consensus (40th)
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Michael Gallup, Cowboys at Titans (56 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 44th, +1 vs. consensus (45th)
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Chris Moore, Texans vs. Jaguars (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 45th, +5 vs. consensus (50th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Chris Moore for 6.4 targets this week, tied for 36th at his position (he has averaged 7.7 targets the last three weeks with Nico Collins sidelined).
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Demarcus Robinson, Ravens vs. Steelers (42 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 55th, +3 vs. consensus (58th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Demarcus Robinson for 5.7 targets this week, tied for 46th at his position (he has averaged 5.8 targets since Week 8).
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Greg Dortch, Cardinals at Falcons (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 56th, +14 vs. consensus (70th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Greg Dortch for 5.9 targets this week, 43rd at his position (he has averaged 7.8 targets in five healthy games in 2022 with Rondale Moore sidelined).
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Jauan Jennings, 49ers at Raiders (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 66th, +3 vs. consensus (69th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Jauan Jennings for 4.7 targets this week, tied for 65th at his position (he has averaged 4.0 targets the last two weeks with Deebo Samuel injured).
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs vs. Broncos (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 27th, -3 vs. consensus (24th)
– Volume: I am projecting JuJu Smith-Schuster for 6.7 targets this week, tied for 31st at his position (he has averaged 6.9 targets in 2022).
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.34 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Zay Jones, Jaguars at Texans (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 29th, -2 vs. consensus (27th)
– Opponent: The Texans have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.17 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Jahan Dotson, Commanders vs. Browns (53 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 35th, -2 vs. consensus (33rd)
– Volume: I am projecting Jahan Dotson for 6.4 targets this week, tied for 36th at his position (he has averaged 5.4 targets since he returned to a full snap share in Week 11).
– Efficiency: Dotson has caught 7 touchdowns but has just 3.15 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third highest 3.85-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
George Pickens, Steelers at Ravens (42 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 40th, -3 vs. consensus (37th)
– Volume: I am projecting George Pickens for 5.8 targets this week, tied for 44th at his position (he has averaged 4.4 targets since the Steelers traded Chase Claypool in Week 9).
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns at Commanders (53 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 43rd, -2 vs. consensus (41st)
– Opponent: The Commanders have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.09 per game in 2022, tied for 10th most in football.
+ Efficiency: Donovan Peoples-Jones has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 4.38 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that sixth biggest 2.38-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Isaiah Hodgins, Giants vs. Colts (52 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 46th, -3 vs. consensus (43rd)
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Richie James, Giants vs. Colts (52 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 47th, -3 vs. consensus (44th)
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Mack Hollins, Raiders vs. 49ers (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 57th, -4 vs. consensus (61st)
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Marquise Goodwin, Seahawks vs. Jets (41 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 70th, -4 vs. consensus (66th)
– Efficiency: Marquise Goodwin has caught 4 touchdowns but has just 2.17 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.83-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.37 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Week 17 Start/Sit: Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee, Rams “at” Chargers (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 8th, +1 vs. consensus (9th)
+ Efficiency: Tyler Higbee has caught just 3 touchdowns but has 4.53 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that sixth-biggest 1.53-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Cole Kmet, Bears at Lions (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 10th, +4 vs. consensus (14th)
+ Opponent: The Lions have allowed 11.7 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.34 per game in 2022, second most in football.
– Efficiency: Cole Kmet has caught 5 touchdowns but has just 2.17 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 2.83-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Greg Dulcich, Broncos at Chiefs (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 11th, +4 vs. consensus (15th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Greg Dulcich for 5.4 targets this week, 11th at his position (he has averaged 5.5 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Gerald Everett, Chargers vs. Rams (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 15th, +1 vs. consensus (16th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Gerald Everett for 5.0 targets this week, tied for 12th at his position (he has averaged 5.6 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Everett has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 4.02 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 2.02-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Tyler Conklin, Jets at Seahawks (41 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 17th, +2 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have allowed 14.7 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, the most in football.
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.15 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Hayden Hurst, Bengals vs. Bills (53 degrees with a 42% chance of light rain)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 21st, +35 vs. consensus (56th – this reflects uncertainty of whether Hurst can play but head coach Zac Taylor told reporters that Hurst was in good shape to play this week)
+ Volume: I am projecting Hayden Hurst for 4.5 targets this week, 19th at his position (he has averaged 5.3 targets in 2022).
– Opponent: The Bills have allowed 6.4 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, second fewest in football.
– Opponent: The Bills have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.09 per game in 2022, tied for 10th most in football.
Cade Otton, Bucs vs. Panthers (70 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 20th, +1 vs. consensus (21st)
+ Volume: I am projecting Cade Otton for 4.9 targets this week, tied for 15th at his position (he has averaged 4.7 targets since Week 5).
+ Efficiency: Otton has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 3.36 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.36-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.11 per game in 2022, tied for eighth most in football.
Logan Thomas, Commanders vs. Browns (53 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 25th, +1 vs. consensus (26th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Logan Thomas for 4.8 targets this week, tied for 16th at his position (he has averaged 4.8 targets since Week 11).
+ Efficiency: Thomas has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.68 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 1.68-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles vs. Saints (52 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 9th, -2 vs. consensus (7th)
– Opponent: The Saints have allowed 5.8 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, the fewest in football.
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.16 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Darren Waller, Raiders vs. 49ers (Dome)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 12th, -2 vs. consensus (10th)
– Volume: I am projecting Darren Waller for 4.8 targets this week, tied for 16th at his position (he has averaged 4.0 targets since he returned from injured reserve in Week 15 and did not play 50% of snaps either week).
– Opponent: The 49ers have allowed 7.2 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, fifth fewest in football.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
David Njoku, Browns at Commanders (53 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 13th, -1 vs. consensus (12th)
– Opponent: The Commanders have allowed 7.5 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for sixth fewest in football.
– Opponent: The Commanders have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.09 per game in 2022, tied for 10th most in football.
+ Efficiency: David Njoku has caught just 3 touchdowns but has 4.57 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 1.57-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Dawson Knox, Bills at Bengals (53 degrees with a 42% chance of light rain)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 14th, -1 vs. consensus (13th)
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.12 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Juwan Johnson, Saints at Eagles (52 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 18th, -1 vs. consensus (17th)
– Efficiency: Juwan Johnson has caught 7 touchdowns but has just 3.50 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 3.50-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Noah Fant, Seahawks vs. Jets (41 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 19th, -1 vs. consensus (18th)
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.37 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Daniel Bellinger, Giants vs. Colts (52 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -3 vs. consensus (26th)
– Volume: I am projecting Daniel Bellinger for 3.4 targets this week, tied for 27th at his position (he has averaged 3.4 targets since Week 3).
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, tied for third most in football.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans vs. Cowboys (56 degrees and cloudy)
Week 17 Positional Ranking: 26th, -4 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have allowed 6.7 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, fourth fewest in football.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.11 per game in 2022, tied for eighth most in football.
