NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
We’re heading into Week 17 of the fantasy football regular season. Over the offseason, I did an “NFL Splits” series, looking at historical trends to help predict the outlook of the 2022 season. I will be continuing the series during the season by using the FTN Splits Tool and looking at actionable takeaways from the previous weeks.
The Splits Tool allows me to experiment with different situations, such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more, to get a better understanding of the rest of the season. Users can sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription and gain access to all the tools needed to dominate their fantasy leagues.
Music City Mess
After winning the AFC South for a second straight year with a 12-5 record in 2021, the Titans’ season ended sooner than expected. Following a first-round bye in the playoffs, Tennessee lost their first postseason game, defeated 19-16 at home by the Bengals. Rather than running it back another year, the Titans made drastic changes to their roster, centered around the team’s long-term future. They began by trading their two-time Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Brown who was entering the final year of his rookie contract. Brown was shipped to Philadelphia, and the Titans went on to use their additional first-round pick they got in return to select Arkansas wide receiver Treylon Burks, hoping to find Brown’s replacement. They continued adding young pieces to the offense and selected Liberty quarterback Malik Willis in the third round.
Despite entering 2022 with low expectations, the Titans won seven of their first 10 games, firmly in command of the AFC South. However, over the last four weeks, Tennessee has lost four consecutive games sitting outside the playoff picture. They enter Thursday night without their starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill for a second week in a row and will now turn to Joshua Dobbs in Week 17. In this article, I’m going to look at how Tannehill’s absence has impacted the Titans’ offense.
Derrick Henry, RB
After missing the last nine games with a broken foot in 2021, Derrick Henry has picked up right where he left off before the injury, leading the NFL in carries (319). He’s also second in rushing yards (1,429) and rushing touchdowns (13) with two weeks left in the season. Regardless of who is behind center, the Titan’s game plan to feed Henry as much as possible remains the same. With Ryan Tannehill out of the lineup, Henry averages 72.38 more rushing yards per game on 3.42 more attempts. It is worth noting that two of Henry’s games without Tannehill have been against an abysmal Texans run defense, who rank dead last against opposing running backs. Although he has not historically been a pass catcher, Henry was getting involved as a receiver with Tannehill and has set career-highs in targets (40), receptions (32), and receiving yards (379) this season. With Malik Willis, Henry has caught just two passes on three targets for nine yards. With the Titans’ playoff hopes centered around a Week 18 rematch against the Jaguars, Henry has been ruled out in Week 17, leaving fourth-round rookie running back Hassan Haskins as the likely starter.
Treylon Burks, WR
Treylon Burks had a difficult time adjusting to the league, struggling with asthma and poor conditioning throughout much of the offseason. It wasn’t until Week 4 that Burks played on over 45% of offensive snaps, finally being utilized as a near full-time player. The following week, Burks exited the game early, diagnosed with turf toe. He was placed on IR, missing the next four games, and would not return until Week 10. He was quiet in his first game, returning to action, catching three passes for 24 yards, but he began hitting his stride in the back half of the season. In Week 11, Burks had his best game, catching seven passes for 111 yards. Then in Week 12, he had another solid outing hauling four receptions for 70 yards. Week 13 was Burks’s last game with Ryan Tannehill and his first game with a touchdown. Unfortunately, he could not make it through the whole game, suffering a concussion in the opening drive. In 8 games with Ryan Tannehill, Burks averaged 3.13 catches for 44.88 yards but was trending in the right direction. Burks saw two targets and was held without a reception in his lone game without Tannehill. However, he did see a rush attempt which could be something the Tennessee utilizes going forward.
Robert Woods, WR
Less than a year removed from ACL surgery, in 2021, the Titans traded a 2023 sixth-round pick to the Rams in exchange for nine-year veteran wide receiver Robert Woods. Despite concerns regarding Woods’s availability to begin the season, he was immediately thrust into the starting lineup in Week 1. Although he hasn’t made much of an impact this season, Woods has been the most reliant pass catcher leading the team in targets (77), receptions (44), and receiving yards (448). Woods’s production took a significant hit across the board in the three games without Ryan Tannehill due to the lack of passing volume. On the positive side, Woods saw five targets in his most recent game, catching four passes for 30 yards. He also logged a season-high 95% snap share in his only game with Treylon Burks and Malik Willis.
