Week 15 Fantasy Football Game By Game Breakdown

If you are reading this, congratulations. You’ve made it to the fantasy playoffs.

And if you haven’t, well, thanks for still reading this. You rock.

That’s why I love writing this article. It can apply to anyone playing fantasy football of any format. If you have been eliminated from a seasonal league, you can use this information for DFS purposes. With zero teams on bye, decisions may not be as tough this week, though now that we have reached the playoffs, the stress is amplified. Let’s do our best to alleviate some of that stress, as we tackle every game of the slate.

Playoffs? Playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Total: 43.5, SF -3
Pace: SEA: 27.29 sec/snap (14th), SF: 29.71 sec/snap (31st)

Key news: Deebo Samuel will miss some time with an MCL sprain and a sprained ankle. 

Seahawks

Quarterback

Geno Smith is coming off an up-and-down game against the Panthers, throwing for 264 yards and three touchdowns, but also a pair of interceptions. Smith was far from perfect, but it was his seventh consecutive game with multiple touchdown passes and his 11th multi-touchdown game on the season. The Seahawks have heavily leaned on the pass over the last two weeks, as their running backs have been dealing with injury. That could easily continue Thursday, which could help make up for a tough matchup against an elite San Francisco defense. When these teams met all the way back in Week 2, Smith struggled, throwing for just 197 yards, zero scores and an interception. I do think Smith will be better this week, especially at home with more passing volume but he’s a QB2, rather than a rock-solid QB1.

Running Back

Kenneth Walker missed last week’s game with an ankle injury but no longer has an injury designation and will play. It is a question whether Walker is 100% healthy, but he should get the bulk of the touches for Seattle this week. Given the uncertainty regarding his health and the worst matchup in fantasy, Walker is suddenly a low-end RB2 to start the fantasy playoffs. San Francisco’s run defense is just too damn good, surrendering the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the year, and just 6.2% of the runs against this unit have gained 10 or more yards, easily the lowest rate in football. Walker, meanwhile, has been great for fantasy but has also been a bit reliant on breaking off explosive runs, which might not be there this week. No running back has even reached 60 rushing yards against the 49ers this season, so I am definitely tempering my expectations for Walker this week.

Wide Receiver

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remain must-start, top-15 wide receivers. Lockett found the end zone last week, giving him a touchdown in each of his last six games. He’s been fantastic and actually has the more favorable matchup between the Seattle wide receivers. Lockett lines up from the slot nearly 42% of the time this season, while San Francisco is surrendering the fourth-most receptions (5.8), second-most receiving yards (81.3) and third-most fantasy points per game (17.0) to opposing pass-catchers from the slot this season. I’d rank Lockett over Metcalf this week, though you are obviously starting both Seattle wideouts. Metcalf also scored last week, as he continues to see many high value targets. Metcalf has seen 42.9% of the Seahawks’ targets from inside the 10-yard line this year, the second-highest rate in the league, while handling 41.5% of the red zone targets, the highest rate in football. Again, I do project a stronger game from Lockett, but both Seattle wideouts are obviously must-start players.

Tight End

Noah Fant and Will Dissly continue to split both snaps and routes, which should keep both tight ends off your radar, especially during the most important week of the fantasy season.

49ers

Quarterback

Brock Purdy is coming off a strong game against Tampa Bay, completing 16-of-21 passes for 185 yards and two touchdowns and also rushing for a score. He picked up an oblique injury during the game — he is listed as questionable, but I expect him to play. Purdy remains on the QB2 radar in superflex leagues in a middling matchup against the Seahawks, though it is clear that San Francisco isn’t going to ask Purdy to do too much.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey gets an elite matchup to start the fantasy playoffs. Coming off a 119-yard rushing day with a receiving touchdown, McCaffrey now gets an awful Seahawks run defense that just allowed rushing touchdowns to Chuba Hubbard and Raheem Blackshear last week. On the season, Seattle is coughing up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, as well as the sixth-most yards before contact per rush (2.59). The Seahawks are also allowing 2.33 yards after contact per attempt, the fourth-most in the league. Seattle is also one of only four teams to allow at least one rushing touchdown per game to opposing backfields this season and McCaffrey should be in line for 22-25 touches, especially with Deebo Samuel sidelined. He is the RB1 in fantasy for Week 15.

Wide Receiver

With Deebo Samuel out, this San Francisco offense should be a lot more concentrated going forward. Brandon Aiyuk found the end zone last week, but only saw three targets in the 35-7 victory. Samuel has been the go-to target for Purdy but now that he is sidelined, more targets will be heading Aiyuk’s way, putting him in the low-end WR2 range going forward. I am pretty interested to see if San Francisco moves Aiyuk around the formation in Samuel’s absence, which can only add to his upside, especially in this offense. 

Tight End

George Kittle caught four passes for 28 yards last week, giving him fewer than 30 receiving yards in each of his last three games. It continues to be frustrating to watch a player as dominant as Kittle see inconsistent usage in this offense, but hopefully he becomes the focal point of the passing game until Samuel is back in the lineup. The matchup is just about as good as it gets for Kittle, as the Seahawks are coughing up the second-most fantasy points (15.9) and fourth-most receiving yards per game (61.4) to opposing tight ends this season. Seattle is also surrendering the seventh-most yards after the catch on the year (1,605), which bodes extremely well for one of the greatest YAC tight ends we have ever seen.

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings (Saturday)

Total: 48.4, MIN -4
Pace: MIN: 26.94 sec/snap (10th), IND: 26.78 sec/snap (6th)

Key news: The Vikings have allowed 400-plus total yards in five straight games.

Vikings

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins is coming off a 425-yard, two-touchdown game in a loss against the Lions last week, pretty easily his best performance of the season. Minnesota’s defense has fallen apart lately, forcing Cousins to attempt 41 passes last week and at least 35 in each of his last three contests. You would like to see the Colts offense push the Vikings to throw a lot once again this week, which is entirely possible when you consider just how bad Minnesota’s defense has played. The Colts are a top-10 team in terms of zone coverage, which could bode well for Cousins. According to Player Profiler, Cousins leads the entire league in completion percentage against zone coverage this season (77.8%), while also ranking 10th in passer rating against the defense (100.8). Indianapolis is coughing up the fourth-highest completion percentage in football right now at 68.2%, though they continue to limit the explosive plays against them. Cousins remains in the QB10-13 range for me ahead of the opening week of the fantasy playoffs.

Running Back

Thank goodness he found the end zone, because Dalvin Cook struggled mightily last week against the Lions. He rushed 15 times for just 23 yards, adding a 13-yard reception. Cook also lost a fumble on a goal line “carry,” though it appeared the play was designed to be a jump pass for Cook. The good news for Cook is that he continued to dominate the usage and playing time in this Minnesota backfield, as Alexander Mattison touched the ball just twice, playing just 15% of the snaps to Cook’s 85% rate. The Colts have mostly been a strong run defense, but they have allowed four running back touchdowns over the last two games and as a result, they are allowing 19 rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs over the last six weeks. Cook should continue to see 20-plus touches and remains a solid RB1.

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson scored 30 fantasy points Sunday and didn’t even score a touchdown.

His stellar season continued against the Lions, as Jefferson caught 11 passes for a whopping 223 yards. Jefferson had over 200 air yards in the game and has now recorded at least 100 receiving yards in eight games on the season. He has now handled nearly 40% of Minnesota’s air yards this season, while seeing about 28% of the team targets. Against zone coverage this season, Jefferson ranks second among qualified wide receivers in yards per route run (2.92), second in receptions (57), second in receiving yards (786) and fourth in touchdowns (3). And according to Player Profiler, Jefferson is averaging 2.26 fantasy points per target against zone coverage, which is a top-tier mark in the league. Arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL, Jefferson is likely the catalyst for many playoff fantasy football squads.

While it didn’t come the way I expected, I did envision a good game from Adam Thielen last week and he delivered. Thielen caught seven passes for 65 yards and a touchdown against the Lions, and although he has still yet to reach 75 yards in a game this season, the veteran has now scored two touchdowns over his last three games. His touchdown last week came from outside of the end zone on a missed tackle and while it all counts the same, I’d really like to see Thielen get back to seeing more end zone looks, especially because the yardage floor isn’t really there. As we discussed last week, Thielen’s target share from inside the 10-yard line has plummeted this season. In 2021, Thielen saw 25% of Minnesota’s targets from inside the 10-yard line and eight end zone targets. But through 14 weeks in 2022, Thielen has just a 15.4% target share from inside the 10-yard line, seeing only five end zone looks. The Colts haven’t been a very good red zone defense this season, allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 63.9% of red zone trips, the fourth-worst rate in football. Thielen’s target rate does climb from 16.9% against man coverage to 22% against zone, making him a solid WR3. 

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson couldn’t get revenge on his former team with a touchdown last week, but he still had a solid game, hauling in six passes for 77 yards. Hockenson has now seen at least six targets in every game since joining the Vikings and during that same span, he ranks second among all tight ends in fantasy points, first in receptions (36), second in targets (46) and second in receiving yards (302). 

Colts

Quarterback

Matt Ryan and the Colts are coming off a much-needed bye week after getting dismantled by the Cowboys back in Week 13. With all of the injuries to the quarterback position all of a sudden, Ryan is absolutely fantasy relevant this week, especially for teams that need to replace Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson. The Vikings defense has been absolutely pathetic, allowing over 400 total yards of offense in each of their last five games, with two of those contests being against the Jets and Patriots. Four of the last five signal callers to face Minnesota have reached the 300-yard passing mark, with Dak Prescott being the only quarterback to not reach that mark. However, he threw for 276 yards on 22 completions in a game where Dallas won by 37. Minnesota is surrendering the most yards per attempt (8.0) and fourth-most yards per completion (11.3) in football, while they are now allowing opposing offenses to score points on 42.1% of drives, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Ryan is an outstanding fill-in option at quarterback this week, while I’d comfortably start him ahead of players like Tom Brady, Jared Goff and Geno Smith.

QBs vs. Vikings since Week 10

Running Back

Now fully recovered from his ankle injury, Jonathan Taylor is seeing elite volume right now. Since Week 10, Taylor is averaging 24 touches per game, while catching at least three passes in all but one game during that span. Taylor is also averaging a very healthy 86% snap share over the last four weeks and should be in line for at least 20 touches. Minnesota’s run defense has been very good this season, as they are stuffing 20% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the sixth-highest rate in the league, while they have yet to allow a running back to rush for 100 yards against them. Hopefully Ryan continues to check the ball down to Taylor, especially in a matchup against a Minnesota team that is allowing the fifth-most receptions (5.8), sixth-most targets (7.2) and sixth-most receiving yards (44.1) per game to opposing backfields. 

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman had a brutal matchup against Trevon Diggs and the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13, but this week’s matchup is light years better. The Vikings secondary has to lead the league in blown coverages, especially on deep passes, while they are surrendering the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. Pittman lines up on the left side of the formation about 40% of the time, which makes this a stellar spot for him, as the Vikings are surrendering the most targets, most receptions, most receiving yards and most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts on the left side of the formation. We just watched DJ Chark, who operated on the left side 45% of the time, torch this Vikings defense to the tune of six receptions for 94 yards and a 48-yard touchdown, which, you guessed it, came from the left side of the field. And back in Week 13, Garrett Wilson destroyed Minnesota for 8-162-0, as he lined up on the left side of the field on 44-of-78 offensive snaps (56%). I’d love to see more deep targets for Pittman, who has seen just three all year long, especially against this Vikings secondary, but I still have him as a low-end WR2 in this matchup.

Meanwhile, Alec Pierce is a boom-or-bust flex play in deeper PPR formats. He has seen eight targets in two of his last three games and unlike Pittman, Pierce is seeing the downfield usage. Pierce has 13 deep targets, while the rest of the Colts wide receivers have 10 deep targets combined. He has seen about 57% of the deep targets from this Indianapolis receiving corps and now faces a Vikings defense that just allowed two deep passing touchdowns last week, giving them six on the season. Minnesota is also allowing the third-most air yards in the NFL, making Pierce an intriguing Hail Mary flex play if you are looking for one this week. Finally, Parris Campbell has been solid in games with Ryan under center and will provide a much higher floor than Pierce, especially considering that 48.1% of Ryan’s pass attempts have been between 0-9 yards, the seventh-highest rate in football. Against an awful Minnesota pass defense, Campbell is a fine flex play in deeper PPR leagues.

Tight End

With Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods and Kylen Granson all playing snaps and running routes, it is tough to start a tight end from the Colts, especially in the fantasy playoffs. 

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (Saturday)

Total: 37.5, CLE -2.5
Pace: CLE: 28.3 sec/snap (21st), BAL: 29.91 sec/snap (32nd)

Key news: Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley are both dealing with injuries. 

Browns

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson really, really struggled in his season debut back in Week 13. He looked very rusty, and over 20% of his pass attempts were deemed off-target against the Texans. However, he looked much improved against the Bengals Sunday, completing 26-of-42 yards for 276 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Just 5% of his passes were deemed off-target in this game, an obvious step forward from two weeks ago. Watson also rushed six times for 33 yards, giving him 13 rushing attempts for 54 yards through two games. He’s still a high-end QB2 against a Baltimore defense that has been limiting production by opposing signal callers, though they are susceptible to explosive passing plays. They are allowing the highest completion percentage off deep passes in all of football, as well as the fifth-most passing yards off deep passes. 

Running Back

You know, if it weren’t for a lengthy overtime period against the Bucs in Week 12, Nick Chubb would have four consecutive poor outings. He couldn’t get anything going against the Bengals last week, rushing for just 34 yards on 14 carries, adding three receptions for 20 yards. Since Week 11, Chubb is just the RB20 in fantasy, while averaging just 62.2 rushing yards per game during that span. You aren’t benching Chubb, but things certainly don’t get easier for him this week, as he hosts an elite Baltimore run defense that is surrendering the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season. Interestingly enough, the Ravens haven’t allowed a running back to reach 50 rushing yards against them since Chubb did it all the way back in Week 7. Just 24.5% of the yardage surrendered by the Ravens this season have come on the ground, the second-lowest rate in the league, while Baltimore’s run defense has been exceptionally special since adding Roquan Smith a few weeks ago. Ahead of this tough matchup, Chubb is in the RB2 range, rather than a no-doubt RB1.

Wide Receiver

The Browns played on the road last week, which, by rule, means Amari Cooper is not allowed to have a good game. Cooper caught just two passes for 42 yards on seven targets against the Bengals. It is worth mentioning that Cooper was on the injury report during the week as he dealt with a hip injury, but he wasn’t really limited, logging 62-of-72 snaps and running a route on 90% of dropbacks. Cleveland returns home this week where Cooper is averaging 10.6 targets, 6.5 receptions, 91 receiving yards and 20.2 fantasy points per game in six contests this season. I’d feel more comfortable about Cooper if he can fully get over this hip issue, which he apparently aggravated early in last week’s game. Keep an eye on his status throughout the week but with this being a Saturday game, it gives Cooper less time to get back to 100%.

Donovan Peoples-Jones built upon his underrated 2022 campaign Sunday. The Michigan product caught eight passes for 114 yards on a team-high 12 targets against the Bengals. He remained the clear deep target in this Cleveland offense, as he saw all five of the Browns’ targets on passes 20-plus yards down the field on Sunday, while seeing a whopping 60% of the team’s air yards. Peoples-Jones has a catch of at least 25 yards in seven of his last eight games and continues to cement himself as an every-week WR3 in fantasy.

Tight End

David Njoku returned from a one-game absence last weekend and thankfully was not in a limited role. He played 96% of the snaps, while running a route on 48-of-49 dropbacks, resulting in seven receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. As long as he has this role, Njoku is an every-week TE1 and a must-start player, especially with Watson under center, who has heavily targeted the tight end position in the red zone over the last two seasons. 

Ravens

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson missed Sunday’s game with a PCL sprain and is unlikely to play Saturday. Tyler Huntley drew the start against the Steelers Sunday but left early after suffering a concussion. He still has a chance to play, but if Huntley is ruled out, the Ravens would turn to Anthony Brown.

Running Back

One of the top storylines of fantasy football in Week 14 was the return of J.K. Dobbins, who was active for the first time since Week 6. Baltimore still used four running backs, but Dobbins was the 1A, carrying the ball 15 times for 120 yards and a touchdown. He played 46% of the offensive snaps, while Gus Edwards logged 34% of the snaps and carried the ball 13 times. Dobbins got the only goal-line snap from this backfield, converting it into a touchdown, while he saw three short-yardage carries to Edwards’ four. The third-down snaps were all over the place, as Kenyan Drake led the way with four, but all four running backs played multiple snaps on third down. I’d imagine Dobbins and Edwards handle all of the carries going forward, which certainly makes both players fantasy relevant against an awful Cleveland run defense. The Browns are surrendering the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season, while also allowing the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (17). I’d consider Dobbins a low-end RB2 and Edwards a viable flex play in non-PPR formats.

Wide Receiver

This Baltimore passing game isn’t the most appealing in fantasy right now, but Demarcus Robinson has remained relevant. He caught 5-of-6 targets for 52 yards Sunday, giving him 14 targets over the last two games. However, with zero teams on bye entering the first round of the fantasy playoffs, it is difficult to find many scenarios where you’d need to plug Robinson into your starting lineup, especially with Lamar Jackson sidelined. 

Tight End

Mark Andrews continues to struggle, as he caught just two passes for 17 yards this past weekend. Andrews has not failed to reach 65 receiving yards or find the end zone since Week 6 and given his struggles and the current quarterback situation in Baltimore right now, I honestly wouldn’t fault anyone for considering benching Andrews right now. If Huntley can play, I would still struggle to bench Andrews, especially given his splits with Huntley under center last season.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (Saturday)

Total: 42, BUF -7.5
Pace: BUF: 26.81 sec/snap (7th), MIA: 27.65 sec/snap (17th)

Key news: The weather calls for snow in Buffalo in December. I for one am shocked. Buffalo also brought back slot WR Cole Beasley.

Bills

Quarterback

A combination of an elite Jets defense and some ugly weather limited the Bills to 20 points Sunday, and Josh Allen completed just 16-of-27 passes for 147 yards and one touchdown, though he added 47 rushing yards and an additional score on the ground. Allen’s passing numbers haven’t been great lately, but his floor has remained so high due to his rushing production. He’s still finished as a top-10 fantasy signal caller in all but two weeks this season, averaging a healthy 7.6 rushing attempts, 1.5 red zone carries and 48.3 rushing yards per game this year. This week’s matchup against Miami is very interesting, because when these teams last met in Week 3, Allen attempted 63 passes and Buffalo dominated time of possession. Miami, a blitz-heavy team, did just that against Allen, blitzing him on over 385 of his dropbacks. Allen made them pay, completing 17-of-22 passes against the blitz for 202 yards and two touchdowns, while averaging 9.2 yards per attempt. The Dolphins also play a ton of man coverage, which bodes well for quarterbacks who also run. As a result, Miami is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers this year (33.0), allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers (19.7). It’ll be interesting to see if the Dolphins are as aggressive on defense this week, and the weather could be less than ideal again. Still, Allen is an obvious must-start player.

Running Back

With 10 punts on the first 10 possessions of the game, there weren’t many opportunities for the Buffalo running backs last week. In Week 13, James Cook took on a larger role, but Devin Singletary remains, at the very least, the 1A in this offense. It’ll be extremely interesting to see if the Dolphins deploy a blitz-heavy approach again this week because when we last saw these teams play, Allen simply threw the football right where the blitz was coming from. It resulted in heavy usage in the passing game from Singletary, who caught nine passes for 78 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. Obviously, that level of involvement is unlikely to be repeated, especially with Cook seeing more work as of late. The Dolphins do rank bottom-10 in both receptions and targets per game to opposing running backs, which presents an opportunity for Singletary here. Miami has been good at slowing down the run, however, as they are stuffing 21% of runs at the line of scrimmage, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Singletary is a flex play ahead of this divisional matchup.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs is coming off his worst game of the season, catching just three passes for 37 yards. He was not targeted once when lined up against star rookie defensive back Sauce Gardner, but it was Diggs’ only true bad game of the entire season. When these teams met earlier on this season, Diggs caught seven passes for 74 yards, a solid game, but it would have been a lot better if his snaps weren’t limited. Like many players during that extremely hot game in Miami, Diggs dealt with cramps, which limited him to a 70% snap share and a route on 72% of dropbacks. Expect Diggs to bounce back this week against a man-heavy Dolphins team that just allowed a ton of production to both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams last week. And against man coverage this season, Diggs ranks 12th in the league in yards per route run (2.86). 

Nothing has changed for Gabe Davis, who remains a volatile WR3 that still possesses matchup-altering upside. He still ranks fifth among all qualified wide receivers in yards per reception (18.3) and gets a matchup with defensive back Keion Crossen, who is allowing 15.8 yards per reception in coverage this season, the sixth-highest mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, Xavien Howard is actually allowing 16.3 yards per reception in coverage, the fifth-worst mark among qualified defensive backs. And because the Dolphins play a lot of Cover-0, it leaves them vulnerable to explosive pass plays down the field, which is exactly what you are looking for when it comes to Davis. 

It’ll be interesting to see how much both John Brown and Cole Beasley play this week. Brown logged just three offensive snaps last week but with Buffalo needing more consistency from the slot, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Beasley active and more involved.

Tight End

Dawson Knox is coming off his best game of the season, catching four passes for 41 yards and a touchdown. In an odd game for Buffalo’s passing game, Knox led the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards. The Jets are stout on the boundaries and don’t allow many deep passing plays, which could have led to the uptick in usage in the short passing game from Knox. He’s still a touchdown-or-bust tight end play, though the matchup is strong, as the Dolphins are surrendering the third-most fantasy points (14.8), second-most receptions (6.1), seventh-most receiving yards (55.4) and seventh-most targets per game (7.6) to opposing tight ends this season.

Dolphins

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a performance to forget against the Chargers, completing 10-of-28 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown. Brandon Staley and the Chargers had a perfect game plan for Tagovailoa, as they pressed the Miami wide receivers off the line on early downs. And then on third and long, Los Angeles’ linebackers would drop back into coverage. The Chargers also took away the middle of the field from Tagovailoa, and I’d bet Leslie Frazier and the Bills will have a similar approach this week. When these teams last played in Week 3, the Dolphins offense was hardly on the field, which limited Tagovailoa to just 18 pass attempts, 186 yards and one touchdown. He was very efficient in that game, but it is worth pointing out that Buffalo was without Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Dane Jackson and Matt Milano. The Bills are healthier now and are allowing the sixth-lowest passing touchdown rate at 3.2%, as well as the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (13.4). Tagovailoa is shaping up as more of a QB2 than QB1 this week.

Running Back

Jeff Wilson left Sunday’s game with a hip injury and did not return. If he can’t suit up, Raheem Mostert will return to being the lead running back for the Dolphins, which should lead to 15-plus touches. The matchup isn’t the greatest in the world, but Buffalo did just allow 71 yards and a score to Zonovan Knight last week, and the Bills are definitely more vulnerable against the run than the pass. If Wilson is ruled out, Mostert would become a low-end RB2/high-end flex against the Bills Saturday.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill just continues to make plays in every single way. He recovered a fumble and returned it 57 yards for a touchdown last week, also scoring a 60-yard touchdown through the air. He was seen limping on and off the field over the course of the second half, and while he’ll be limited in practice with the ankle issue, Hill will certainly play this weekend. Hill still leads the NFL in targets per route run (33%), seeing double-digit targets in eight games this season. He also ranks in the league in first-read targets on the season and is obviously a key reason as to why teams are in the fantasy playoffs starting this week.

Jaylen Waddle, meanwhile, did almost nothing last week, catching just two passes for 31 yards. He didn’t record a reception until the fourth quarter. Waddle’s overall numbers are very strong, but he has been far less consistent than Hill, mainly because the Dolphins aren’t using him in pre-snap motion nearly as much. Waddle also only lines up in the slot around 24.5% of the time. Of course, if this offense gets back on track, they can score on anyone and Waddle will present top-15 upside with ease, making him difficult to bench. 

Tight End

Mike Gesicki hasn’t caught a pass since Week 10 and now faces a Bills defense that has yet to allow an opposing tight end to find the end zone against them this season. 

Detroit Lions @ New York Jets

Total: 44.5, DET -1
Pace: NYJ: 27.06 sec/snap (12th), DET: 27.2 sec/snap (13th)

Key news: Corey Davis is in the concussion protocol. DL Quinnen Williams is day-to-day with a calf injury.

Jets

Quarterback

He didn’t score a touchdown, but Mike White had a really impressive performance against the Bills last week. Despite getting knocked out of the game twice, White returned and made some really nice throws in tough conditions. He’s currently day-to-day, but as long as he is good to go, White is a top-tier streaming quarterback and a borderline top-12 option. Despite playing in consecutive games the last two weeks, White has attempted 44 and 57 passes, as the Jets continue to let every quarterback on their roster throw the ball except for Zach Wilson. Over the last three weeks, White ranks third in the league in both dropbacks (136) and pass attempts (129) and now gets a home matchup with the Lions, who are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (23.2). Detroit’s run defense has really improved as of late, which could bode well for White and the Jets passing game. There are also opportunities for explosive passing plays against the Lions, who are allowing the highest aDOT (9.4 yards) and most air yards (2,261) in the league this season, as well as the second-most yards per pass attempt (7.9). White is an ideal replacement if you lost Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson but is also a quarterback I’d comfortably stream this weekend.

Running Back

Entering the week, head coach Robert Saleh said running back Zonovan Knight wasn’t going anywhere, regardless of the return of Michael Carter. He wasn’t lying, as Knight out-touched Carter 19-8, though Carter did play 50% of the snaps to Knight’s 47%. You’d like to see Knight handle more work in the passing game, as Carter played 10-of-12 snaps on third downs, as well as all 12 snaps in the two-minute drill. However, he should be in line for 15-18 touches at home, while the goal line work belongs to him. The matchup against the Lions seems good on the surface but don’t overlook how improved this run defense has been. Over the last six weeks, the Lions are allowing the fifth-fewest yards per carry (3.4), as well as the sixth-fewest rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (7.9). During that stretch, the Lions have allowed Saquon Barkley and Dalvin Cook to combine for 55 rushing yards on 30 carries. Detroit is still allowing the most points per drive in the NFL (2.47), so the Jets should be able to move the football here, which is good for Knight. But don’t mistake this for a great matchup. Knight is a high-end flex play for me this week.

Lions Run Defense Improvements

Wide Receiver

Given the circumstances last week, you will absolutely take six receptions for 78 yards from Garrett Wilson. The star rookie wide receiver continues to shine, especially with Zach Wilson on the bench. Wilson has reached at least 90 receiving yards in four of his last six games and is now averaging 10.3 targets, 6.1 receptions, 91.5 receiving yards and 19.2 PPR points per game in six contests without Zach Wilson under center this season. He’ll remain a rock-solid WR2 to start the fantasy playoffs, as he faces a Lions secondary that is surrendering the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season. Detroit continues to play man coverage at one of the highest rates in football, while Wilson’s target rate against man coverage is about six percent higher than it is against zone coverage. He also ranks sixth among qualified receivers in targets (37), fourth in receptions (25) and sixth in receiving yards (344) against man coverage. 

It only took 14 weeks, but Elijah Moore may finally be fantasy relevant again. With Corey Davis leaving the game early with a concussion, Moore ended up playing 82% of the snaps, his highest snap share since Week 4. He caught six passes for 60 yards on a team-high 10 targets, while lining up out of the slot 64% of the time. If Davis can’t play this week, Moore would become an intriguing WR3, especially if he continues to play out of the slot. The Lions have been destroyed by opposing slot wide receivers this season, allowing the most receptions and receiving yards to players from the slot, as well as the second-most fantasy points per game. We just saw K.J. Osborn catch four passes for 32 yards and a touchdown from the slot against the Lions and have now allowed either 90 receiving yards or a touchdown to each of the last four slot receivers to face them. 

Tight End

Tyler Conklin is an appealing tight end streamer this week. He was targeted eight times last week, giving him 15 over the last two games. The Jets have attempted a ton of passes during that span, which has certainly helped, but Conklin should be in line for 6-8 targets again in a stellar matchup. Detroit is coughing up the fifth-most fantasy points (14.3), ninth-most receiving yards (55.1) and 10th-most receptions (5.1) per game to opposing tight ends on the year.

Lions

Quarterback

Jared Goff’s success at home continued last week, as he torched the Vikings to the tune of 330 yards and three touchdowns. Goff now has 20 touchdowns to just three interceptions at Ford Field, compared to just two touchdowns and four interceptions on the road. As much as I loved Goff last week, I dislike him just as much this week, as he heads on the road to face an elite Jets defense that has limited Josh Allen to one passing touchdown in two meetings this season. The Jets are allowing the third-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.3), fourth-lowest passing touchdown rate (2.8%) and eighth-fewest fantasy points per game (14.3) to opposing signal callers. Between the tough matchup and Goff averaging just 227 passing yards and 9.7 fantasy points per game in five road outings, he is a risky play this weekend. 

Running Back

I just don’t know. Trying to project D’Andre Swift on a weekly basis is maddening. One week after touching the ball 18 times, Swift’s playing time and usage came back down Sunday. He had just nine touches for 39 yards, while his snap share fell to 36%. Swift played 51% of the snaps in Week 13, but Justin Jackson returned to playing on third downs, while Jamaal Williams remained the lead back, carrying the ball 16 times. The Lions clearly don’t want to give Swift too much work, which makes him a risky flex play, especially against a tough Jets defense. This matchup is definitely more favorable if DL Quinnen Williams (calf) can’t play, but Swift should be considered a PPR flex play right now.

Meanwhile, Jamaal Williams, per usual, is a touchdown-or-bust flex play. He should get 13-16 carries and all the goal-line work, as he still leads the entire league with 24 carries from inside the 5-yard line this season. Of course, Williams isn’t going to give you anything in the passing game, as he hasn’t caught a single pass in six weeks. 

Wide Receiver

With the Lions passing game doing whatever they wanted last week, it was a little frustrating to see Amon-Ra St. Brown finish the game with just six receptions for 68 yards. Still, the floor is massive for the star sophomore wide receiver and remains a high-end WR2 here. St. Brown still runs out of the slot over 57% of the time, which is good in this spot, as the Jets have been very tough against perimeter wide receivers, which is why I am worried about DJ Chark, despite the fact that he has over 90 yards in two straight games. Jameson Williams is still being eased in, as his usage did climb last week, but it still ultimately ended up being just 13 snaps and six pass routes. 

Tight End

No thank you.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans

Total: 49.5, KC -14

Pace: HOU: 28.8 sec/snap (23rd), KC: 26.8 sec/snap (9th)

Key news: Dameon Pierce is expected to miss this game with an ankle injury. Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins could miss their second straight game.

Texans

Quarterback

Last week against the Cowboys, Houston used both Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel in their offense. Both players logged 33 offensive snaps, with Mills attempting 21 passes and Driskel attempting six passes, one of which went for a touchdown. He also rushed seven times for 36 yards, with six of those rushing attempts being designed. Houston is expected to use both quarterbacks again this week, and with how banged up the Texans offense is right now, Driskel could be called upon once again. Why is this relevant in the fantasy playoffs? Well, because Houston actually converted Driskel to tight end last year and he is still TE-eligible on Yahoo. We know how bad the tight end position can be, and if Driskel is going to attempt 5-10 passes, while rushing 5-8 times, that could be more than enough for a top-10 finish at the position. 

Running Back

Dameon Pierce is not expected to play this week, as the rookie running back is dealing with an ankle injury. This could be a messy situation, as the Texans could activate Royce Freeman and use three running backs for this game. Of course, a running back in a game as two-touchdown underdogs isn’t ideal for fantasy, so whoever gets the work on passing downs likely projects the best. Last week, it was Dare Ogunbowale, who played all but one third-down snap and every snap in the two-minute drill. We know the Chiefs allow a ton of production in the passing game to running backs, coughing up the most receptions (6.8), second-most targets (8.2) and second-most receiving yards (50.8) per game to opposing backfields. Rex Burkhead got the goal-line work once Pierce left the game in the fourth quarter last week but he and Ogunbowale are desperation flex plays at best, with Dare likely getting the edge in PPR formats.

Wide Receiver

With both Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins sidelined last week, Chris Moore filled the role of top wide receiver for the Texans. He was a huge reason behind Houston’s almost-upset, catching 10-of-11 targets for 124 yards against the Cowboys, sporting a target share of 46%. Moore has now played two games this season with both Cooks and Collins inactive and in those contests, he has finished as the WR18 and WR4 in fantasy. Houston is going to have to throw a lot in this game and if Cooks and Collins remain sidelined, Moore could easily see double-digit targets again, putting him in the WR3 discussion. 

Tight End

I’d rather not start a Houston tight end in the opening round of the fantasy playoffs. But over on Yahoo!, it is likely going to be Driskel, if anyone, with his dual eligibility.

Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes didn’t have his best game of the season last week but still threw for 352 yards and three touchdowns. It was Mahomes’ seventh game with at least 300 passing yards over his last eight games and now faces a Houston pass defense that has limited the damage this season, largely due to the fact that opposing offenses simply don’t have to throw the football very often against them. Only two quarterbacks have finished inside the top-12 against the Texans this season. but I absolutely do not expect Mahomes to finish outside that range this weekend. It may not be a 35-pass-attempt game but Mahomes should keep rolling this week.

Running Back

Isiah Pacheco finds himself in a smash spot this weekend, facing the worst run defense in football. The Texans just allowed three running back touchdowns to the Cowboys last week and are now surrendering the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Pacheco is still getting most of the carries, though he was outsnapped by Jerick McKinnon 39-29 last week. McKinnon definitely plays his fair share of snaps, especially when the Chiefs are in scoring position, but don’t overlook the fact that Pacheco is second in the league in red zone carries since Week 10 (16), while averaging a respectable 17.2 touches per game during that span. 17 touches against the Texans are more than enough to post at least RB2 numbers, as Houston is allowing the second-most yards after contact per attempt this season (2.47). Pacheco, meanwhile, ranks fourth among all running backs in missed tackles forced since Week 10 (16), as well as 10th in avoided tackles per attempt (0.20). 

McKinnon had an awesome game last week, catching seven passes for 112 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He obviously isn’t going to repeat that performance, but McKinnon should see 7-10 touches and most of the usage in the passing game, which makes him a viable flex play in PPR leagues, especially in this matchup.

Wide Receiver

JuJu Smith-Schuster caught nine passes for 74 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos. It was his best game in weeks, as Smith-Schuster was targeted 11 times. Interestingly enough, only one wide receiver has finished as a WR1 against the Texans this season, again, because of the lack of passing volume. But Smith-Schuster, at worst, is a high-end WR3, especially considering that Houston’s top defensive backs Steven Nelson and Derek Stingley are dealing with injuries at the moment.

Tight End

Travis Kelce has now had consecutive underwhelming contests, though it still shows just why he is far and away the top tight end in all of fantasy, as his floor games are 56 and 71 receiving yards. Kelce still ranks 10th in all of football with nine end zone targets this season, while his 38 red zone targets are tied with Justin Jefferson for the most in the league. I would probably leave him in my starting lineup ahead of the fantasy postseason.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Carolina Panthers

Total: 37.5, CAR -2.5
Pace: CAR: 28.25 sec/snap (20th), PIT: 27.89 sec/snap (19th)

Key news: DJ Moore is now practicing in full. For Pittsburgh, Kenny Pickett is in the concussion protocol.

Panthers

Quarterback

In two starts this season, Sam Darnold has attempted 19 and 24 passes. During those weeks, the Panthers are sporting an insane neutral script rush rate of 62.2%, easily the highest rate in the NFL. The Steelers pass defense has been improved since the return of T.J. Watt, which surprises absolutely no one. Darnold is nothing more than a low-ceiling QB2 in superflex formats.

Running Back

Carolina’s ground attack absolutely dominated the Seahawks last week and as we already discussed, the Panthers aren’t getting away from establishing the run. This past weekend, however, the Panthers used three running backs in their offense. Perhaps it was due to D’Onta Foreman being on the injury report during the week, but he only played 47% of the snaps, carrying the ball 21 times for 74 yards. Because Carolina’s offense was on the field a lot and they ran the ball so much, Foreman was still able to reach 20 carries, despite the fact that Chuba Hubbard played 32% of the snaps and handled 17 touches. Of course, Seattle’s run defense is one of the worst in the league, but things get more difficult this week, as the Panthers face the Steelers, who are allowing the fourth-fewest yards before contact per rush attempt on the year (1.86). Meanwhile, just 21.85 of the touchdowns scored against the Steelers have come on the ground, the third-lowest rate in football, making this a difficult matchup for Foreman and Hubbard. The Carolina running backs should see enough volume in this game environment, but I would temper expectations.

Wide Receiver

DJ Moore logged 96% of the snaps Sunday but apparently picked up an injury at some point that now has him listed as day-to-day. With the Panthers playing good defense and running the ball well, it is hurting the overall volume for Moore, who failed to catch any of his three targets last week. A home matchup with the Steelers is good for opposing wide receivers but it also doesn’t seem like a spot where the Panthers are forced to throw the football. If Moore is active, he is a high-end WR3 against a Pittsburgh secondary that is surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. 13 wideouts have either reached at least 95 receiving yards or found the end zone against the Steelers this season. 

Tight End

I have not recommended starting a Carolina tight end all season long and I am not going to start now.

Steelers

Quarterback

Kenny Pickett left last week’s game after taking a hard hit and is now in the concussion protocol. Mitch Trubisky entered the game and proceeded to complete passes to Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen and Marcus Williams, who do not play for the Pittsburgh Steelers. We’ll see if Pickett can clear the concussion protocol, but whoever starts at quarterback for the Steelers should not be in your fantasy lineups, especially against a tough Carolina defense that is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt this season (6.6).

Running Back

Najee Harris saved his day with a touchdown Sunday but otherwise struggled against an elite Ravens run defense. He played 31 snaps to 22 for Jaylen Warren, while running 16 pass routes to Warren’s 14. Per usual, when Warren is active, Harris’ role in the passing game takes a hit, as his snaps on third down and in the two-minute drill plummet. This makes Harris a low-end RB2 unless the matchup is simply too good to ignore, which is not the case here. Sure, you can run on the Panthers, who are allowing the ninth-most rushing yards per game this season (128.8), and Harris should see 18-22 touches. But I still don’t see a massive ceiling here.

Wide Receiver

It was yet another floor game for Diontae Johnson last week, who caught six passes for 82 yards. Per usual, Johnson failed to find the end zone, as his frustrating season continued. He has a tough matchup against perhaps the game’s most underrated defensive back in Jaycee Horn, who is allowing just 0.11 fantasy points per coverage route on the season. Horn is also allowing a reception every 17.9 coverage snaps, the third-best rate among qualified defensive backs. If Trubisky is under center for the Steelers this week, perhaps it helps Johnson, who is averaging about two more fantasy points per game alongside the veteran signal caller this season. Still, Johnson’s efficiency has remained poor, while the touchdown equity isn’t there. He is a low-ceiling WR3.

George Pickens was not happy about his lack of involvement against the Falcons in Week 13, seeing two targets. This past weekend, he only saw three targets. Pickens has now been targeted just 11 times over the last three games and despite how talented he is, I would have a difficult time trusting him in my fantasy lineups.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth found the end zone last week, but his snap share and involvement declined for the second consecutive week. In Week 13, Freiermuth logged just 55% of the snaps, running a route on just 17-of-31 dropbacks (55%). And this past weekend, Freiermuth played 56% of the snaps, running a route on 20-of-35 dropbacks (57%). It was later announced that Freiermuth played through a foot injury against the Ravens last week, which is something we will have to keep an eye on. He may not have an every-down role but when he’s on the field, Freiermuth earns targets. As long as he is active, he is a must-start fantasy tight end.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

Total: 48.5, PHI -9
Pace: CHI: 28.86 sec/snap (25th), PHI: 26.9 sec/snap (11th)

Key news: Dallas Goedert is eligible to come off IR this week.

Bears

Quarterback

Following the bye week, Justin Fields gets to welcome in the hottest team in all of football. With this being the fantasy playoffs, I am already seeing a lot of questions regarding starting Fields in this tough matchup. We just saw Daniel Jones score 19.3 fantasy points against the Eagles last week, thanks to 26 rushing yards and a rushing score. Jones became the first quarterback to finish as a QB1 against the Eagles all year long (QB11), but we know Fields is going to have as much rushing production as any signal caller in the league. He is averaging an insane 10.7 rushing attempts, 1.9 red zone attempts and 75.4 rushing yards per game, all of which rank top-two at the position. Yes, the Eagles are surrendering the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks on the season (12.0) but Fields’ floor is still so high, making him a low-end QB1 for me, despite the tough matchup.

Running Back

Khalil Herbert isn’t able to return yet, which means David Montgomery should continue to see 17-20 touches if the gamescript allows it. Over his last three games, Montgomery is averaging a solid 18.3 touches per game, while catching a solid 10 passes during that span. The Eagles run defense was vulnerable for a bit in the middle of the season but the defensive line is at full strength again, as Jordan Davis has joined Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph. Montgomery is a volume-based RB2 in this tough matchup against the Eagles.

Wide Receiver

I’ll be honest — I really don’t want to start any wide receivers from the Bears. With Darnell Mooney out for the remainder of the season, Chase Claypool will operate as the WR1 in Chicago, but he hasn’t been very productive since joining the team and gets an incredibly difficult matchup against the Eagles, who are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. A wide receiver in a low-volume passing offense against Darius Slay and James Bradberry doesn’t intrigue me very much.

Tight End

If I am starting anyone from the Bears passing game, it is going to be tight end Cole Kmet. He led the Bears in receiving in Mooney’s absence in Week 13, catching 6-of-7 targets for 72 yards. I’d project Kmet to lead the team in targets again this week, especially against a Philadelphia defense that tends to funnel targets to the middle of the field. Kmet has seen a healthy 33.3% of Chicago’s targets from inside the 10-yard line this season, the 11th-highest rate in all of football, which still gives him some touchdown upside.

Eagles

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts’ MVP season continued against the Giants Sunday, as he threw for 217 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while adding 77 rushing yards and a third touchdown. Now the QB1 in all of fantasy, Hurts is averaging an incredible 0.74 fantasy points per dropback and has finished as a top-10 fantasy signal caller in all but two games over the course of the season. He should keep things rolling against a bad Bears defense that is allowing the third-most yards per pass attempt this season (7.7), as well as the sixth-most yards per completion (11.6). Chicago is also surrendering the sixth-worst completion percentage on deep passes (47%), as well as a league-leading 10 touchdown passes off play-action.

Running Back

Miles Sanders is coming off a stellar game, rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants. With that performance, Sanders became the first Eagles running back to rush for 1,000 yards since 2014 and is now the RB10 in all of fantasy. The matchup this week is just as favorable, as the Bears are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the year. Meanwhile, no team in football has allowed more rushing touchdowns per game this season than the Bears (21), making this a second-straight smash spot for Sanders. He’s an easy top-12 running back for Week 15.

Wide Receiver

Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith got it done last week. Brown caught four passes for 70 yards and a touchdown, while Smith hauled in five passes for 64 yards and a score. In the four weeks with Dallas Goedert out of the lineup, Brown has been the WR6 in fantasy, while Smith has been the WR12. Smith has seen an uptick in targets because the Eagles have not targeted the tight end position in Goedert’s absence. Over the last four weeks, Smith is sporting an awesome 29% target share, good for the ninth-highest mark among all wide receivers. If Goedert returns this week (which he should), that target share is likely to drop, but Smith remains a low-end WR2, especially in this outstanding matchup. Chicago has been giving it up to opposing wide receivers as of late, allowing six wideouts to finish as a WR1 against them since Week 8. 

WRs vs. Bears since Week 8

Tight End

If Dallas Goedert is in Philadelphia’s starting lineup, he is also in your fantasy football team’s starting lineup. He hasn’t played since Week 10, but don’t forget how efficient Goedert is. The talented tight end ranks second at his position in yards per route run (2.45), first in yards per target (10.5), seventh in yards per reception (12.7) and second in yards after the catch per reception (8.4).

Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 47.5, DAL -4
Pace: JAC: 26.3 sec/snap (3rd), DAL: 26.4 sec/snap (4th)

Key news: Dallas LT Tyron Smith could finally return to the lineup this week.

Jaguars

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence is coming off an incredible game against the Titans, completing 30-of-42 passes for 368 yards and three touchdowns, also rushing for a score. Against Tennessee’s pass funnel defense, Lawrence attempted 42 passes and torched a banged-up secondary. Lawrence has been playing the quarterback position at an elite level over the last month or so — since Week 9, he is the QB7 in fantasy. He now ranks second in the NFL in end zone throws with 33, while his 12 touchdown passes from inside the 10-yard line are tied for the fourth-most in the league. Since Week 9, Lawrence has finished as the QB9, QB10, QB5, QB18 and QB1 in fantasy, but now gets a tough matchup with the Cowboys, who are surrendering the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers on the year (12.4). Dallas is also first in the league with a 28% pressure rate, while Lawrence hasn’t been amazing under pressure this year, ranking 17th in completion rate (50.5%) with just two touchdowns and three interceptions. This game does have shootout potential and Lawrence is simply playing great right now, which keeps him on the QB1/QB2 borderline for me.

Running Back

I wasn’t surprised to see Travis Etienne struggle against one of the top run defenses in football last week. He rushed for 32 scoreless yards on 17 carries. However, I was pretty surprised to see him not even targeted in the passing game despite everything else working so well for the Jacksonville passing game. The usage in the passing game has been very underwhelming for Etienne, who has been targeted on just 13% of his routes to this point of the season, the 10th-lowest rate among running backs with at least 50 pass routes. Etienne still logged 75% of the snaps this past weekend and is dominating the touches for Jacksonville, keeping him as a mid-range RB2 against a Cowboys defense that you can run on. Dallas is allowing the 10th-most rushing yards per game this season (128.5), while also coughing up a healthy 2.4 yards before contact per attempt. 

Wide Receiver

Given how much production we saw from Lawrence and the Jaguars passing attack, it was a bit disappointing to see Christian Kirk catch five passes for just 45 yards. His floor for targets is still pretty high, as he’s seen at least eight targets in each of his last seven games. Granted, Kirk has been a bit up-and-down for fantasy, but his volume keeps him in the low-end WR2 range, while he should avoid Trevon Diggs for most of this game considering he lines up out of the slot 76.4% of the time. Zay Jones, meanwhile, bounced back after a dud against the Lions, hauling in eight passes for 77 yards and a touchdown. Jones was targeted 12 times, giving him double-digit targets in three of his last four games. Because Lawrence has thrown so many passes into the end zone this season, Jones quietly ranks eighth in all of football with 10 end zone targets on the year. The usage has been tremendous for Jones, who is a volatile WR3 this week.

Tight End

Well then, Evan Engram. After mostly posting floor games over the course of the entire season, Engram exploded for 11 receptions for 162 yards and two touchdowns in Week 14. Whether Engram had 162 yards or 16 yards this past weekend, he would remain a low-end TE1 simply based on his usage. On the year, Engram ranks third among all tight ends in routes run (406), running a route on over 80% of dropbacks. The Cowboys have been fantastic against tight ends this season, surrendering the fourth-fewest fantasy points (8.7) and sixth-fewest receiving yards per game (36.8) to the position.

Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott struggled against the Texans last week, completing 24-of-39 passes for 284 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. This is a terrific spot for Prescott to get back on track, facing a struggling Jacksonville defense that is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (18.8). The Jaguars are also allowing the fifth-most passing touchdowns off play-action this season (7), while Prescott ranks eighth in football in play-action dropback rate (31.1%). Dallas’ offense could be very efficient when they get into scoring position this week, as the Jaguars are allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 63.6% of red zone trips this season, the fifth-worst rate in the league. Expect Prescott to return to posting top-10 quarterback numbers in Jacksonville this weekend.

Running Back

You are obviously starting Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott, who have been dominant lately. Since Week 11, Pollard is the RB2 in fantasy, while Elliott is the RB7. During that span, the duo has combined for a whopping 11 total touchdowns. Both running backs are running extremely hot in the touchdown department, especially Elliott, who has scored in every game he’s played in since Week 5. Jacksonville is allowing the seventh-most rushing touchdowns per game to opposing backfields (0.85), as well as the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. 

Wide Receiver

Give the Texans credit. They continue to limit the production of opposing wide receivers, and that continued last week with CeeDee Lamb catching just five passes for 33 yards. Lamb has still caught at least five passes in each of his last six games and obviously remains a rock-solid WR1 this week. Jacksonville is surrendering the third-most touchdown receptions per game to opposing wide receivers on the season (1.23), while their overall pass defense has really struggled as of late. Continue to start Lamb with all the confidence in the world.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz continues to produce alongside Dak Prescott. He caught six passes for 87 yards last week and has now finished as the TE6, TE11, TE5, TE3, TE20, TE1, TE20 and TE4 in games with Prescott under center this season. This is an incredible spot for Schultz, facing a Jacksonville defense that just allowed 45 yards and a score to Chigoziem Okonkwo last week. On the season, the Jaguars are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points (13.5) and third-most receiving yards per game (63) to opposing tight ends, as well as a league-high 9.4 yards per target to the position. 

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Total: 43, NO -4
Pace: NO: 28.3 sec/snap (22nd), ATL: 29.43 sec/snap (28th)

Key news: Desmond Ridder will start at QB for Atlanta this week. 

Saints

Quarterback

Andy Dalton will remain the starting quarterback for the Saints this week in what is a pretty favorable matchup. The Falcons are surrendering the second-most points (2.39), second-most yards (37.7) and the most plays (6.7) per drive this season, while opposing offenses are scoring points on 45% of drives against Atlanta, the highest rate in the NFL. Atlanta is also surrendering the fifth-most yards per pass attempt on the year (7.5), as well as the seventh-highest completion percentage (67.4%). Dalton is a viable QB2 play in superflex formats.

Running Back

This has to be the week Alvin Kamara breaks out of this slump, right?

Kamara hasn’t found the end zone since his three-touchdown game against the Raiders back in Week 8. And since Week 9, Kamara is just the RB34 in fantasy, averaging just 9.2 PPR fantasy points per game and 0.24 fantasy points per snap during that span. This certainly feels like a get-right spot for Kamara, but can we get him some high-value touches please? On the season, Kamara ranks just 49th in the entire NFL in carries from inside the 5-yard line (2), while his 15 red zone carries are tied for 37th in the league. Fortunately, running backs have found plenty of success against the Falcons as of late and with Mark Ingram sidelined, we should see at least a 70% snap share for Kamara, as well as at least 15-18 touches. If Kamara doesn’t get back on track this week, I’m not sure it is going to happen.

RBs vs. Falcons since Week 8

Wide Receiver

Chris Olave remains the only Saints wideout who should be started in most fantasy lineups. Olave has recorded at least 60 receiving yards in eight games this season and ranks eighth among all wideouts in targets per route run (27%). There is still plenty of downfield upside with Olave, too, as he is averaging 4.0 air yards per route run, the second-highest rate in the league behind only Tyreek Hill. This is an outstanding matchup, as the Falcons are surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season. Olave will draw coverage from Darren Hall, an inexperienced defensive back who is allowing 0.23 fantasy points per coverage route, as well as a 74% catch rate. And even when he sees coverage from A.J. Terrell, I don’t worry too much. Terrell is a really talented defensive back, but he’s struggled this season, surrendering a whopping 0.31 fantasy points per coverage route, largely influenced by a league-leading seven touchdowns allowed in coverage. Olave is a rock-solid WR2 for me in this NFC South battle. 

I’ll also add that in really deep leagues or in DFS tournaments, Rashid Shaheed is worth a look. He caught all four of his targets for 75 yards in Week 13, as the Saints continue to manufacture touches for him. Shaheed logged a season-high 61% of the snaps last game, while running a route on 24-of-32 dropbacks (75%).

Tight End

The Saints were without Juwan Johnson last game, which led to a 46% snap share for Taysom Hill. He rushed three times for 10 yards, while adding a 30-yard touchdown reception. If Johnson remains sidelined, we could see Hill play more receiver, as he set season-highs in both snaps from the slot (8) and out wide (8) last game. Not to mention, the absence of Mark Ingram could lead to more carries for Hill, who faces a vulnerable Atlanta run defense. The Falcons are also coughing up the seventh-most fantasy points (13.6) and fifth-most receiving yards per game (58.2) to opposing tight ends, which also bodes well for Johnson if he can get back in the lineup here. 

Falcons

Quarterback

Rookie Desmond Ridder will make his first career start on Sunday. I don’t think the approach of the Falcons offense changes much with Ridder under center, if at all. Atlanta is still going to be a run-first offense that utilizes a ton of play-action, while also utilizing the quarterback’s mobility on designed runs and bootleg passes. Like Marcus Mariota, Ridder can make things happen in the rushing department, as he averaged nearly 44 rushing yards per game over the course of his collegiate career at Cincinnati. The rookie has some QB2 appeal in superflex formats, though this is a tough spot. New Orleans is playing terrific defense right now — on the season, the Saints are surrendering the 11th-lowest completion percentage against play-action (63.2%), as well as the third-fewest touchdown passes (2) and seventh-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.64) off the play type. 

Running Back

Still splitting work with Tyler Allgeier, Cordarrelle Patterson remains a flex play for the fantasy playoffs. Since returning in Week 9, Patterson is averaging 16 touches per game, though his usage in the passing game has been all over the place. These teams last met in Week 1 and Patterson rushed for 100 yards, something that doesn’t happen very often against the Saints, but he also touched the ball 25 times during that game, something that isn’t going to happen this time around. Allgeier is in line for 10-12 touches, which is enough to cap Patterson’s ceiling in this underwhelming matchup.

Wide Receiver

When we last saw Drake London, he had his best game in a long time, catching six passes for 95 yards against the Steelers. He was targeted 12 times and could have had an even more productive day if Mariota connected with London on a few deep shots. We’ll see how London performs with Ridder under center this week, but I still don’t feel great starting him as a WR3 in the opening round of the fantasy playoffs, especially if Marshon Lattimore returns for the Saints. 

Tight End

No thank you.

Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos

Total: 36.5, DEN -3
Pace: DEN: 26.81 sec/snap (8th), ARI: 26.4 sec/snap (5th)

Key news: Kyler Murray will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. For Denver, Russell Wilson is in the concussion protocol.

Broncos

Quarterback

Russell Wilson is coming off arguably his best game of the season against the Chiefs but is now in the concussion protocol after taking a brutal hit. He is not practicing and seems highly questionable to play this weekend. Brett Rypien would start if Wilson can’t clear the concussion protocol — you obviously aren’t starting him in fantasy, but I do think he can be serviceable enough to keep the Broncos skill position players afloat.

Running Back

Latavius Murray still appears to be the 1A in this backfield, but because the Broncos fell behind 27-0 early last week, he was limited to eight carries for 32 yards. Murray logged 53% of the snaps, as his snap share has now dropped in each of the last two weeks. Mike Boone was playing a lot more this past weekend before leaving with an ankle injury. Once he left the game, veteran Marlon Mack took over the playing time on passing downs. Mack played all seven snaps in the two-minute drill, while also mixing in on some early downs. Murray’s ceiling for touches right now appears to be 15 or so, putting him in the low-upside flex range against an Arizona run defense that really struggled last week, surrendering rushing touchdowns to both New England backup running backs. The Cardinals are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season, while 15.4% of the runs against this defense have gained 10 or more yards, the second-highest rate in the NFL. 

Wide Receiver

With Courtland Sutton sidelined last week, Jerry Jeudy unsurprisingly operated as the WR1 for Denver. And in his second game back from injury, Jeudy wasn’t really limited, logging 83% of the snaps, while running a route on 83% of dropbacks. Jeudy was fantastic, catching eight passes for 73 yards and three touchdowns. Entering the week, I was very interested to see if Jeudy would move to the perimeter in Sutton’s absence and that was clearly the case, as he lined up out wide just over 80% of the time, while playing in the slot just 19.6% of the time. Because the Broncos are lacking size at wide receiver, I’d fully expect Jeudy to remain on the perimeter if Sutton is out once again this week. Arizona tends to play a lot of man coverage, which bodes well for Jeudy, as he leads all qualified wide receivers in yards per route run against man coverage this season (4.67). Even with Rypien under center Jeudy is a WR2 if Sutton remains out this weekend.

Tight End

The production wasn’t there but Greg Dulcich tied the team-lead in targets last week with eight. And although Albert Okwuegbunam was active for the first time since Week 5 last week, Dulcich still logged 75% of the snaps, while running a route on 74% of dropbacks. Dulcich was in the slot over 58% of the time last week and any tight end that is seeing eight targets against the Cardinals should probably be started in fantasy. Arizona is still allowing the most fantasy points, receptions and targets per game to opposing tight ends this season, while no team has allowed more touchdown catches to the position (9). Dulcich is a back-end TE1 for me.

Cardinals

Quarterback

With Kyler Murray out for the rest of the season, Colt McCoy will start at quarterback for the Cardinals. We’ve seen McCoy start a fair share of games over the last year and while he hasn’t been a great option to stream, he has been more than good enough for the Arizona offense. Last week, however, he struggled against the Patriots’ pass rush, as McCoy was under pressure on 36% of his dropbacks. Now he faces a tough Denver pass defense that is allowing the lowest passing touchdown rate (2.6%) and fewest yards per pass attempt (6.1) in the league.

Running Back

James Conner’s usage is as good as any running back in fantasy right now. He is coming off a very good game against a tough New England defense, rushing for 85 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries, while catching 6-of-7 targets for an additional 29 yards. Since Week 10, Conner is averaging a healthy 22.2 touches per game, while logging just over 91% of the offensive snaps during that span. With this usage, Conner should be considered a top-12 running back each and every week, regardless of matchup. Conner has posted opportunity shares of 95%, 79%, 90% and 91%, while the floor in the receiving game appears to be pretty high going forward.

Wide Receiver

Arizona’s wide receivers struggled to do much last game. DeAndre Hopkins caught seven passes for 79 yards, while seeing 11 targets. Marquise Brown, meanwhile, caught just 4-of-8 targets for 34 yards. We have seen Hopkins play three games with McCoy under center this season, averaging 12.3 targets, 8.6 receptions, 89.3 receiving yards and 17.6 PPR fantasy points per game. Of course, Hollywood Brown only played in one of those contests, which was last week. You are still starting Hopkins as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2, while Brown remains a volatile WR3 play, especially against a really good Denver pass defense. In the two games since returning from injury, Brown has lined up in the slot 66% of the time and with Rondale Moore now on injured reserve, that slot usage should continue, especially considering Greg Dortch played just four offensive snaps Monday.

Tight End

Trey McBride continues to play around 75% of the snaps in place of Zach Ertz, but it hasn’t led to any fantasy production. And with Murray sidelined, the overall efficiency of this entire offense is going to take a hit, which obviously doesn’t bode well for McBride. 

New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders

Total: 44.5, NE -1
Pace: LV: 27.74 sec/snap (18th), NE: 28.95 sec/snap (26th)

Key news: Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) missed practice Wednesday, while Damien Harris (thigh) did practice. For the Raiders, both Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow are eligible to return this week.

Raiders

Quarterback

Derek Carr had a rough game last Thursday, completing just 11 passes for 137 yards and a pair of interceptions in a stunning loss against the Rams. I have zero idea why the Raiders treated it as a preseason game, as they had zero desire to, I don’t know, score points, which ultimately led to their demise. Reinforcements could be on the way for Carr this week, as Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow are eligible to return. The Patriots pass defense is solid, though they have really gotten after really bad passing games. However, they are still allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers on the year (15.1), while ranking second in the NFL in pressure rate at 25.8%. Carr is shaping up as more of a high-end QB2 for me this week and a player you can certainly get away from if you are a bit nervous.

Running Back

This Raiders offense remains super-concentrated, and the approach is simple – Give the ball to Josh Jacobs and then throw it to Davante Adams. Jacobs’ usage is absurd, as he carried the ball 27 times for 99 yards and a touchdown last week, while adding two receptions. Jacobs has eclipsed 25 touches in each of his last five games, averaging an insane 30 touches per game during that span. It is even more insane when you consider that Jacobs has not been 100% healthy for weeks, as he is dealing with quad and hand injuries. Jacobs will be limited in practice this week but will once again most likely play and see 25-plus touches. The matchup is tough, as the Patriots have allowed just six rushing touchdowns all year, tied for the fewest in football. New England is also surrendering the third-fewest yards before contact per rush (1.74), as well as the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (17.6). However, Jacobs is going to continue seeing all of the work, especially since the Raiders declined his player option before the season started. He remains a must-start top-seven running back.

Wide Receiver

With the Raiders only attempting 20 passes, I was almost relieved to see Davante Adams catch three passes for 71 yards, because it could have been a lot worse. Last week broke a five-game stretch of Adams seeing double-digit targets but the All-Pro wideout still ranks second among all wide receivers in targets per route run (31%), while his 33.3% target share is the second-highest mark in the league. You are obviously starting him and even if Hunter Renfrow is back, it isn’t going to impact Adams’ target share at all. Renfrow, meanwhile, should not be started because, well, he’s done nothing when he was healthy to warrant even being on fantasy rosters, let alone in starting lineups. 

Tight End

We’ll see if Darren Waller returns this week, but with the Raiders essentially being eliminated from playoff contention, it is at least possible that Waller doesn’t play. Hopefully he isn’t limited if he is active but as long as he isn’t, Waller slides right back into the TE 6-8 range for me. New England has not been very good against opposing tight ends this season, coughing up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position (12.1), as well as the second-most touchdown catches (8).

Patriots

Quarterback

After an awesome Week 12 game against the Vikings, Mac Jones has now scored around 20 total fantasy points over the last two weeks. He does get a favorable matchup against the Raiders, who are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers on the year (19.2). The Raiders are also allowing the sixth-most points (2.24), fifth-most yards (35.1) and second-most plays per drive (6.4) this season. There still isn’t a huge ceiling for Jones in New England’s screen-heavy offense, as Jones ranks third in dropback percentage off screens (16.7%), while his 58 passes off screens are the eighth most in the league, despite only playing 10 games. 

Running Back

This backfield is very tough to break down right now, but it is extremely important for fantasy. Rhamondre Stevenson left Monday’s game with an ankle injury and did not return. And because Damien Harris was already inactive, the Patriots had no choice but to turn to their rookies Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong. Both players found the end zone, but Strong clearly looked like the more explosive running back, which isn’t a shock considering he ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at the combine. Damien Harris did practice Wednesday, and considering he made the road trip, I actually expect him to play. Stevenson, however, missed practice Wednesday, and his status is up in the air. If Harris is the starting running back for the Patriots this week, he is a low-end RB2. I’d expect him to see 15-18 carries and all of the goal line work against a Raiders defense that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. They are also allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 63.4% of red zone trips this season, the seventh-worst rate in football. 

However, if both Harris and Stevenson both sit out, I’d lean toward Strong as a flex play over Kevin Harris. We know the Patriots want to run the football, but we’ll see what this backfield looks like by the end of the week.

Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers looks like he should be back this week after missing last week’s game with a concussion. If he clears the protocol, Meyers will return to his WR3 status, especially in a favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that is coughing up the seventh-most receptions (5.3), third-most receiving yards (74.5) and fourth-most fantasy points (16.2) per game to opposing pass-catchers from the slot this season. That bodes well for Meyers, who is lining up from the slot 70.6% of the time on the year. 

Tight End

Hunter Henry caught just three passes last week but made them count, recording 70 yards. He draws a second consecutive favorable matchup on Sunday, facing the Raiders, who are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points (13.4) per game to opposing tight ends. Henry remains a touchdown-or-bust TE2, though at least he is running most of the routes over Jonnu Smith right now.

Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 47.5, LAC -3
Pace: LAC: 25.95 sec/snap (2nd), TEN: 29.69 sec/snap (30th)

Key news: Treylon Burks remains in the concussion protocol for the Titans. For the Chargers, we’ll see if Derwin James returns this week.

Chargers

Quarterback

After a bit of a rough patch, Justin Herbert is rolling right now. He has finished as the QB12, QB3, QB14 and QB10 over the last four weeks and is coming off a masterpiece against the Dolphins, completing 39-of-51 passes for 367 yards and a touchdown. There is still very little downfield presence in this passing game right now, but Herbert finally has all of his pass-catchers healthy, and hopefully the offensive line can get back to full strength too. He now hosts a reeling Tennessee secondary that has been destroyed as of late, surrendering 380 yards and three touchdowns to Jalen Hurts and 368 yards and three touchdowns to Trevor Lawrence over the last two weeks. The best path to success against this defense is throwing the football, which especially holds true with how depleted Tennessee is. On the season, 77.7% of the yardage against the Titans has come through the air, the highest rate in the league, while 78.1% of the touchdowns scored against this defense have been via the pass, also the highest rate in football. This is a perfect matchup for what Herbert and the Chargers want to do on offense.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler is unlikely to have an efficient game on the ground against the Titans this week. Tennessee is stuffing 25% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the second-highest rate in the league. They are also surrendering the fifth-fewest yards before contact per rush (1.99), as well as the second-fewest yards after contact per rush (1.66). However, it means nothing when you consider that Ekeler has caught 93 passes this season, sporting a target share of around 23%. He has five games with double-digit targets on the year and whatever Ekeler fails to do between the tackles, he’ll make up for in the passing game. Tennessee is coughing up the most targets per game to opposing running backs this season (8.3), as well as the second-most receptions (6.3) per game to opposing backfields. 

Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both borderline top-15 wide receivers this week. Williams returned from an ankle sprain last week, catching all six of his targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. He logged 65% of the snaps, while running a route on 41-of-56 dropbacks (73%), so he was slightly limited in his first game back. Williams gets a stellar matchup with a Titans secondary that is allowing the most passing touchdowns on passes 20-plus yards down the field (11), as well as the most passing yards off deep passes (1,065). Tennessee allowed six pass plays of 20-plus yards just last week alone and now Williams will draw coverage from Terrance Mitchell, who is allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage route on the year. Finally, the Titans are allowing the sixth-most receptions (4.7), fourth-most receiving yards (72.3) and third-most fantasy points per game (15.9) to opposing wideouts on the left side of the formation, which is where Williams lines up 51% of the time. Start Williams with confidence this week.

Of course, Allen should also be in your lineup. He caught 12-of-14 targets for 92 yards last week and has now seen 14 targets in each of his last two games. Because the Chargers aren’t taking many shots down the field, while Herbert has been under plenty of duress, Allen has seen plenty of targets in the short/intermediate area of the field, which will continue going forward. The matchup is obviously ideal, as Tennessee is coughing up the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.

Tight End

Gerald Everett saw eight targets last week, despite Williams returning to the lineup. Of course, it helps when the Chargers throw the ball 50 times, but they should be throwing the ball quite a bit again this Sunday. Tennessee is surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (14.8), putting Everett on the TE1/TE2 borderline this week.

Titans

Quarterback

It wasn’t pretty but Ryan Tannehill got there last week, scoring just under 20 fantasy points against the Jaguars. He’s still a middling QB2 this week, especially if Treylon Burks remains sidelined. The Chargers defense played outstanding last week but over the course of the season, opposing offenses are scoring points on 41.7% of drives against them, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Tannehill’s path to a ceiling in this game is if the Chargers offense gets hot and the Titans are chasing points and while this game is enticing, I can find 15 or 16 quarterbacks I’d rather start this week.

Running Back

You are obviously starting Derrick Henry every week, but especially this week against one of the worst run defenses in football. Henry was in store for a monster game, rushing for over 90 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter last week. He ultimately finished the day with 121 yards and a score on 17 carries, while adding three receptions for 34 yards. Henry was targeted five times and with third-down running back Dontrell Hilliard sidelined, it’ll be interesting to see if he gets more playing time on third downs and in the two-minute drill. Regardless, Henry should be able to find plenty of success against a Chargers defense that is surrendering the third-most yards before contact per rush attempt on the year (2.93), as well as the second-most yards after contact per attempt (2.47). Los Angeles is also surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, as well as the most yards per rush (5.4).

Wide Receiver

With Treylon Burks sidelined last week, Robert Woods caught five passes for 49 yards. He was targeted seven times and whether Burks plays or not, Woods has seemingly zero upside for fantasy. Woods has one touchdown on the season and has eclipsed 45 yards three times all year long. Unless you are pretty desperate at wide receiver right now, I would not look to start Woods in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.

Tight End

I was high on Chigoziem Okonkwo last week and he delivered, catching all six of his targets for 45 yards and a touchdown, while adding a two-point conversion. It was fantastic to see, as Okonkwo continues to make plays and earn more opportunities for the Titans. He still leads all qualified tight ends in yards per route run on the year (2.58), while ranking fifth in yards after the catch per reception (8.2). Despite Tennessee talking about using him more prior to Sunday, Okonkwo still only ran a route on 52% of dropbacks, while logging 49% of the snaps, compared to Austin Hooper’s 54% snap share. Okonkwo should continue to see more opportunities if Burks is sidelined, but I can’t help but think about the potential ceiling he would have if he was a full-time player. The matchup is a lot more difficult if safety Derwin James is active, but Okonkwo will stay on the TE1/TE2 borderline if Burks can’t play this weekend.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 44, CIN -3.5
Pace: TB: 25.82 sec/snap (1st), CIN: 27.49 sec/snap (15th)

Key news: Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd will be questionable to play in this game.

Buccaneers

Quarterback

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense once again struggled last week. Brady completed just 34-of-55 passes for 253 yards, one touchdown and a pair of interceptions. Brady has now attempted 50-plus passes in three of his last five games, though that massive volume hasn’t led to any terrific fantasy production. Now he gets a tough matchup with an impressive Cincinnati pass defense that has still yet to allow a quarterback to throw for 300 yards against them this season, while also surrendering the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (13.8). The Bengals are also allowing the third-lowest passing touchdown rate (2.7%) so Brady will remain a middling QB2 to start the fantasy postseason.

Running Back

Tampa Bay is going to continue using both running backs, which keeps both Rachaad White and Leonard Fournette in the flex range. Over the last two weeks, Fournette has logged 53.5% of the snaps, while White has played 47% of the snaps. During that same span, Fournette has 26 touches to the rookie’s 33. In PPR leagues, Fournette and White are still pretty appealing because Brady is targeting the running back position at such a high rate because no quarterback is averaging less time to throw (2.30). Over the last three weeks, White has caught 20-of-22 targets and even with Fournette active, those targets aren’t going anywhere. The ceiling is capped for both players now that they are splitting work, but they are still extremely viable flex plays in PPR formats.

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin hasn’t found the end zone in two consecutive games, though he probably should have. In Week 13, Godwin had a touchdown called back due to a holding penalty and this past weekend, he dropped a touchdown. Still, the volume and floor have been amazing, as Godwin has caught at least five passes in every game since returning from injury in Week 4, while averaging 10.5 targets per game during that span. The passing game continues to run through Godwin, who leads the league in both targets (22) and receptions (20) off screens this season. Despite how bad the offense has been, Godwin remains a high-floor, high-end WR2.

Mike Evans, meanwhile, continues to struggle. He had a long touchdown called back by a holding penalty last week and has now failed to reach 60 yards or find the end zone since Week 8. Brady and Evans have not been on the same page this season, while it doesn’t help that Evans’ routes take more time to develop and Brady is getting the ball out of his hands almost immediately. A matchup against Eli Apple certainly isn’t something to run away from, as Apple is allowing a 14.1-yard aDOT in coverage this season, the 12th-highest mark among qualified defensive backs. But will Brady have enough time to get Evans the football? Evans is a low-end WR2 right now.

Tight End

Cameron Brate was active last week, though Cade Otton played 45 snaps to Brate’s 28, while running a route on 31-of-56 dropbacks (55%). So it appears the Bucs are trending toward making Otton their full-time tight end, though as long as Brate is active, he is difficult to fully trust. 

Bengals

Quarterback

Despite missing his second and third wide receivers last week, Joe Burrow still threw for 239 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. If Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins can’t play this weekend, it definitely hurts Burrow, especially against a solid Tampa Bay defense, though I wouldn’t sit Burrow unless I am loaded at the quarterback position. And as I discussed last week, I love the fact that the Bengals are calling designed runs for Burrow, which only adds to both his floor and ceiling. Since Week 9, Burrow ranks fifth among all quarterbacks in designed rushing attempts with 23, averaging 4.6 per game during that stretch. This is a middling matchup, though Tampa Bay did just allow a good fantasy game to Brock Purdy last week. If Higgins and/or Boyd can play, Burrow would remain a mid-range QB1. If not, he’d drop to the low-end QB1 range.

Running Back

Joe Mixon returned from a two-game absence with a concussion and like we’ve seen from many players in their first game back, he was limited a bit. Mixon played 58% of the snaps on Sunday, his lowest rate in a full game this season, touching the ball 16 times for 106 yards. Samaje Perine logged 43% of the snaps and touched the ball just five times and while he did score a short-yardage touchdown, it came during the two-minute drill. I’d expect Mixon to see more work this weekend, though Perine will continue to play on plenty of third downs. Tampa Bay’s run defense has been elite for years but if defensive tackle Vita Vea can’t play in this game, it changes everything. 

Wide Receiver

With Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd playing a combined three snaps on Sunday, Ja’Marr Chase absolutely dominated the targets. Chase set career-highs in targets (15), target share (47%) and targets per route run (40%) on Sunday, catching 10 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown. You are obviously starting Chase as a top-five receiver every week but if Boyd and/or Higgins are out, Chase should once again see 10-plus targets, presenting him with massive upside. I’d like to see Higgins get a full session of practice this week because we have seen him deal with an injury during the week multiple times this season, while hardly playing that Sunday twice, including last week. As long as Higgins can get a full practice in before Friday, I will comfortably start him as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver.

We’ll have to track the Bengals pass-catchers throughout the week.

Tight End

Hayden Hurst continues to deal with a calf injury and is doubtful to play this week. Again, with Hurst out and Higgins and Boyd questionable, all of the targets are going to funnel to Chase.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

Total: 40.5, WAS -4.5
Pace: WAS: 28.8 sec/snap (24th), NYG: 27.6 sec/snap (16th)

Key news: The Giants defense could remain without Leonard Williams, which is great for an already bad run defense.

Commanders

Quarterback

With a bye week sandwiched in between, the Commanders will somehow play consecutive games against the Giants. When we last saw this matchup in Week 13, Taylor Heinicke was solid, throwing for 275 yards and a pair of touchdowns, his second straight game with multiple touchdown passes. Heinicke is still in the QB2 range in superflex formats, but this Giants defense is really banged up right now, making this an okay spot, especially with the Commanders at home. 

Running Back

The Giants run defense is absolutely terrible and they could once again be without Leonard Williams on the defensive line. Enter Brian Robinson, who carried the ball 21 times for 96 yards against this unit in Week 13, while adding two receptions. Over his last two games, Robinson has recorded 20 and 23 touches, as he starts to distance himself from Antonio Gibson. Robinson is a solid RB2 as a home favorite against one of the worst run defenses in football. 17.3% of the runs against the Giants this season have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in football, while they are also surrendering the second-most yards before contact per rush attempt (3.19). They have allowed five running backs to rush for at least 100 yards against them this season, while also coughing up the fifth-most rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs (0.92). With 20 touches on the horizon, Robinson sets up really well Sunday night. 

Gibson, meanwhile, is a middling flex play. He is still playing more snaps on passing downs and should see 8-12 touches, which is enough to at least consider starting him against a run defense that is this bad.

RBs vs. Giants since Week 7

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin continues to thrive with Heinicke under center, as he is averaging 2.5 more targets, 2.04 more receptions, 21.4 more receiving yards and 4.59 more fantasy points per game in seven games alongside Heinicke. He torched this depleted Giants secondary to the tune of 105 yards and a touchdown two weeks ago, as he continues to enjoy playing his division rival. Over his last six games against the Giants, McLaurin is averaging 10.1 targets, 7.3 receptions, 96.6 receiving yards, 0.5 touchdowns and 20.5 PPR points per game. With Adoree’ Jackson still sidelined, McLaurin will draw coverage from Fabian Moreau, who is allowing a healthy 0.25 fantasy points per coverage route this season. McLaurin is the WR12 in fantasy since Week 7 and is an easy top-15 play this week.

Curtis Samuel was more involved than he has been since the quarterback change last game, catching six passes for 63 yards. His seven targets were the most he’s seen with Heinicke under center, while he also added three more carries, giving him 13 over his last four games. With so many targets heading McLaurin’s way right now, Samuel and Jahan Dotson are obviously extremely risky plays this week.

Tight End

Logan Thomas remains in the TE15 range. He just hasn’t been productive, and his snap share dropped from 71% in Week 12 to 56% in Week 13. The Giants are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (13.0), as well as the sixth-most receiving yards per game to the position (57.1).

Giants

Quarterback

Daniel Jones is coming off a strong fantasy performance, becoming the first quarterback to finish as a top-12 signal caller against the Eagles this season. Per usual, the rushing production lifted Jones’ floor and ceiling, as he is now averaging 7.3 rushing attempts, 1.7 red zone carries and 42.2 rushing yards per game this season, which rank sixth, fourth and fifth among quarterbacks on the year. Jones rushed 12 times for 71 yards against Washington in Week 13 and the Commanders are now surrendering the 10th-most rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers (22.4). Jones is a high-end QB2 for me this week, especially if the Giants struggle to run the football with Saquon Barkley.

Running Back

It is really tough to be excited about Saquon Barkley right now. For starters, his efficiency has fallen off a cliff over the last month and now he faces a tough Washington run defense. Yes, Barkley found the end zone against them in Week 13 but only averaged 3.5 yards per carry, his fifth game over his last six under 4.0 yards per carry. Barkley was dealing with a neck injury last week and between that and the game getting out of hand, he only played 31% of the snaps, including just three snaps in the first quarter. He was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, which should lead to his usual workload on Sunday. The matchup isn’t easy, as just 25% of the touchdowns scored against Washington have come on the ground, the fifth-lowest rate in football. Barkley is closer to the RB2 range than RB1 for me in this NFC East battle.

Wide Receiver

Darius Slayton struggled last week but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt against Philadelphia’s elite secondary. Slayton is still the WR24 since Week 7, while sporting a solid 21% target share during that span. He is still running a ton of routes and in a more favorable matchup this week, I’d expect Slayton to return to leading the Giants in targets. And while it isn’t massive, the floor might be higher than you realize, as Slayton has recorded at least 58 receiving yards in six of his last seven games. He is a viable WR3 against the Commanders.

Tight End

Rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger has been back for two games. During that span, he has played 97% and 61% of the offensive snaps. He left last week’s game early with a rib injury, which is something to keep an eye on but if he is healthy, Bellinger likely plays 90% of the snaps and runs most of the routes, which puts him on the streaming radar, especially given how rough the tight end position is.

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers

Total: 39.5, GB -7
Pace: GB: 29.62 sec/snap (29th), LAR: 29.2 sec/snap (27th)

Key news: Baker Mayfield will start at QB for the Rams. Romeo Doubs could return for Green Bay.

Packers

Quarterback

This matchup isn’t as difficult as it once was. Three of the last four signal callers to face the Rams have finished as top-12 quarterbacks, though Rodgers has shown very little upside over the course of the season. This game also features two of the slowest teams in football in a cold weather game, which certainly isn’t the most appealing environment for fantasy football purposes. Despite the fact that Green Bay’s wide receivers could be at full strength this week, I have very little interest in starting Rodgers Monday.

Running Back

When we last saw Green Bay before the bye in Week 13, AJ Dillon took over, rushing for 93 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Aaron Jones left the game twice with a shin injury, ultimately logging just 38% of the snaps, his lowest rate of the season. Jones barely played in the fourth quarter, which led to the uptick in work for Dillon. Entering this week, Jones will be ready to roll and remains a mid-range RB2, though it is possible Dillon sees more work than he had been prior to last game. The Rams defense has still been pretty good against the run, despite losing Aaron Donald, limiting Josh Jacobs to less than 100 rushing yards on 27 carries last week. Los Angeles is also allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, making this a tough matchup for Jones and Dillon.

Wide Receiver

I expect the touchdowns to finally come to a halt for Christian Watson, but that doesn’t mean I am going to bench him. Over his last four games, Watson has found the end zone eight times, and he’s been doing it in multiple ways. Watson has scored on deep targets, end zone targets, after the catch and in the run game and while I love finding stats to make cases for players in certain matchups, sometimes you just have to understand that players that are running this hot have to be in your lineup. The Rams are surrendering the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the season and you don’t really have to worry about Jalen Ramsey here, as he doesn’t usually follow many wide receivers around the formation. 

Tight End

Robert Tonyan has failed to reach 30 receiving yards in each of his last five games, while he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4, his only touchdown of the season. 

Rams

Quarterback

Does Baker Mayfield have more magic left? He led an improbable come-from-behind victory last week and on that final drive, Mayfield looked good, making some tough throws. Of course, you aren’t starting him in fantasy, especially on the road against a Green Bay pass defense that has the sixth-highest interception rate in football (2.8%). 

Running Back

The only player from the Rams that I am even remotely considering starting this week is Cam Akers. He fumbled last week but still led the team in carries with 12, while converting a goal line carry into a touchdown. The weakness of this Green Bay defense is against the run, as the Packers are allowing the most yards after contact per rush in all of football this season (2.54), while over 13% of the runs against this unit have gained 10 or more yards, the ninth-highest rate in football. If the Rams can keep this game close, Akers should see 15-17 carries, which puts him in the mid-range flex territory. 

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Both Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek made key plays for the Rams last week. Skowronek caught 7-of-8 targets for 89 yards against the Raiders, developing a strong rapport with Mayfield. With this being the fantasy playoffs and zero teams being on bye, it is tough to make an argument for any Los Angeles pass-catcher outside of deep leagues.