Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Major League Baseball is coming off its first somewhat normal offseason in a while. There were no concerns about missing games to a pandemic or a lockout, there was no CBA to be ironed out. There were just player transactions, questions about regional TV coverage and hope.
The season starts in just a few days, so before that gets going, let’s look at the entire league, team-by-team, as we get ready for the 2023 Major League Baseball season. Below, I will touch on each team, with their biggest strengths and weaknesses and key players, and then at the bottom I’ll give my predictions for award winners and the postseason. I’ll also note each team’s top prospect, according to the Prospect Vault by our own Jake Kucheck.
American League today. Check back tomorrow for the National League.
American League East
Baltimore Orioles
2022 Results: 83-79 (4th in AL East)
Biggest additions: Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, Mychal Givens, James McCann, Cole Irvin
Biggest subtractions: Jordan Lyles, Jesús Aguilar, Rougned Odor
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Grayson Rodriguez, SP (5)
Biggest Strength: Youth
The Orioles built on their big surprise in 2022 by … doing disappointingly little this offseason. They signed Adam Frazier, who (a) had what is increasingly clearly a fluke career year in 2021, and (b) is the only likely starter here over 30. I’d have taken Adley Rutschman as my Rookie of the Year last year (and that’s no slight to Julio Rodríguez), while Gunnar Henderson is my ROY pick for this year, and if it isn’t him it might be Grayson Rodriguez. I’m never going to be a fan of a team holding pat like the Orioles kind of did this offseason, but if there is a team that could do that, much better a super-young one whose players could be entering their primes than a normal team where any number of players could pass into their decline.
Biggest Weakness: Complacency
Maybe the Orioles are never going to splurge for a Jacob deGrom or a Carlos Rodón. Silly, but fine. But the fact that they don’t even appear to have been in on the second tier of free agent starters — guys like Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon and Chris Bassitt — is malpractice. Even if this offense can continue to grow, it’s hard to imagine the rotation backing the bats up.
Key Player: Grayson Rodriguez
By all rights, the Orioles should have had Grayson Rodriguez up last year, but that ship has sailed. Now, he’s a 23-year-old rookie who is fifth in AL Rookie of the Year odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, and if the Orioles want to improve on last year’s surprise over-.500 finish, he’ll need to pitch like that and more.
2023 Prediction
78-84 (Fourth in AL East)
Boston Red Sox
2022 Results: 78-84 (5th in AL East)
Biggest additions: Masataka Yoshida, Adalberto Mondesi, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, Adam Duvall, Chris Martin
Biggest subtractions: Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, J.D. Martinez, Rich Hill, Tommy Pham
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Marcelo Mayer, SS (11)
Biggest Strength: Financial Flexibility
Sorry, bit of snark here, but let’s be honest: This Red Sox team doesn’t have a lot of big-time bright spots. It’s not that the team is bad, because it isn’t. But other than Rafael Devers (and we’ll see about Masataka Yoshida), there isn’t much in the way of stars here. It’s a bunch of C+/B- players desperately needing a couple of A or A- teammates, and those guys aren’t around. If the Red Sox are surprise contenders, there’s enough on the books that they can probably go get someone. But … I don’t see “surprise contender” in their range of outcomes this year.
Biggest Weakness: Tissue-Paper Rotation
If every Red Sox starter stays healthy and pitches at his peak, this is a star rotation. Of course, hell will have frozen over, so we’ll have bigger concerns. Chris Sale is 34 on Thursday and hasn’t topped 150 innings since 2018. Corey Kluber turns 37 in a couple weeks and just pitched 164 innings after 116.2 across the previous three seasons. James Paxton has never topped 160.1 innings, has 21.2 the last two years and is already hurt. Tanner Houck was a reliever. They’re going to need a whole herd of reinforcements in 2023.
Key Player: Adalberto Mondesi
When Trevor Story was lost for most or all of the season, the Red Sox made the desperation move for Adalberto Mondesi, who is now in his eighth season and has only reached even 300 plate appearances once and has a career .280 on-base percentage. But he can also be electric when he’s on the field. He’s going to start the year on the IL, but it doesn’t sound like a long stay, and if he can get healthy and get on base enough to not be embarrassing, the new rules could allow him to lead the league in steals. The Red Sox desperately need another offensive weapon, and Mondesi might have to be that.
2023 Projection
77-85 (Fifth in the AL East)
New York Yankees
2022 Results: 99-63 (1st in AL East, lost in ALCS)
Biggest additions: Carlos Rodón, Tommy Kahnle
Biggest subtractions: Andrew Benintendi, Jameson Taillon, Matt Carpenter, Chad Green, Aroldis Chapman, Miguel Castro
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Anthony Volpe, SS (4)
Biggest Strength: Rotation Depth
Jordan Montgomery and Jameson Taillon are out, Carlos Rodón is in. Frankie Montas was supposed to be in, but it looks like he’ll miss the whole year, while Rodón is on the shelf for at least a bit. And yet, this is still an above-average rotation. Gerrit Cole should rebound from his worst season since 2017, while Nestor Cortes and Domingo Germán are good-to-great next men up. I will probably always be the low man on Luis Severino (I just can’t see him ever staying healthy for that long — he’s starting on the IL as it is), but as long as he’s around he’ll be great. Maybe no one here wins the Cy Young (though maybe they do), but this rotation never lets up.
Biggest Weakness: Hitters Not Named Judge
The Yankees scored the second-most runs in baseball in 2022 despite I think running out Shane Spencer and Steve Sax half the year, and the lineup doesn’t look that different this year. Joey Gallo and probably Isiah Kiner-Falefa are out, Oswaldo Cabrera and probably some combination of Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe are in. But assuming Judge hits second, the heart of the order — Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson — is a combined 105 years old and collectively hit .219 with a .315 OBP last year. Counting on a single star to repeat an all-time great season is kind of asking for a problem.
Key Player: Aaron Judge
Did you read the paragraph above this? The Yankees as a team had a .750 OPS last year. The not-Aaron Judge Yankees had a .707 OPS. Maybe they can survive, thrive even, if he is a 10-WAR player again. If he falls off a little, they’re in trouble. If he falls off a lot or, heaven forbid, gets hurt? They’re the Orioles.
2023 Projection
88-74 (Second in the AL East, lose in the ALCS)
Tampa Bay Rays
2022 Results: 86-76 (3rd in AL East, lost in ALWCS)
Biggest additions: Zach Eflin, Trevor Kelley, Kevin Kelly
Biggest subtractions: Corey Kluber, Kevin Kiermaier, Brooks Raley, Ji-Man Choi, David Peralta, Mike Zunino, Ryan Yarbrough
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Taj Bradley, SP (14)
Biggest Strength: The Rays-ness of it All
Like the Orioles, the Rays didn’t do much this offseason — Zach Eflin was the only addition who most fans would really recognize (and speaking from experience, adding a Kelley and a Kelly is just asking for copy editing mistakes all around Tampa). Unlike the Orioles, though, the Rays have more than earned the benefit of the doubt. They haven’t had a losing season since 2017, haven’t had consecutive years under 80 wins since 2006-2007. There probably isn’t a smarter organization out there, so it’s hard to tell them the players they have cultivated aren’t the right ones.
Biggest Weakness: The Rays-ness of it All
Just because I maybe shouldn’t question the Rays doesn’t mean I won’t. It’s one thing to make the most of a meager payroll. It’s another to take pride in it. A rotation fronted by Shane McClanahan is cool. One with Shane Baz and Tyler Glasnow would be cooler, but Baz is probably out for the year, and Glasnow is hurt again and will be on an innings limit when he does return. You know what would be even cooler? Spend just one time, Rays. Bring in a Jacob deGrom or a Carlos Rodón. Don’t go into a season with a catcher tandem of a failed prospect with a .288 career OBP (Francisco Mejía) and a 31-year-old former two-way player with a .264 (Christian Bethancourt). The Rays need to do exactly what they have always done, and then hire some outsider whose only job is to see rosters like the 2023 one and hit the big red “OK Spend Money Now” button.
Key Player: Wander Franco
It’s silly to call a season in which a 21-year-old slashed .288/.328/.417 a “lost year,” but you could argue 2022 that for Wander Franco. He slipped a bit from his electric rookie season, and of course he only played half the season because of injury. He’s the only member of the Rays lineup who is likely to ever flirt with MVP candidacy, and they’ll need him to approach that.
(Honorable mention: McClanahan. The loss of Baz is huge, and he’ll need to be a Cy Young contender.)
2023 Projection
85-77 (Third in AL East)
Toronto Blue Jays
2022 Results: 92-70 (2nd in AL East, lost in ALWCS)
Biggest additions: Daulton Varsho, Brandon Belt, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Kiermaier, Chad Green
Biggest subtractions: Teoscar Hernández, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Gabriel Moreno, Ross Stripling
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Ricky Tiedemann, SP (66)
Biggest Strength: Top of the Order
This offense top-to-bottom is strong enough that they can afford to more-or-less punt on the ninth spot to let the defensive wizardry of Kevin Kiermaier hold down a spot, but the 1-2-3 of George Springer–Bo Bichette–Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is as good as it gets.
Biggest Weakness: Back of the Rotation
There’s a scenario where any/every member of this rotation makes the AL All-Star team — in fact, they have all five been all-stars at least once since 2019 — but there are plenty of question marks about everyone, especially the increasingly aged back of the rotation. José Berríos turns 29 in May and was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. Yusei Kikuchi is 31 and has never had a full-season ERA better than 4.41. Chris Bassitt is 34 and had never topped 150 innings in a season before the last two years. Fatal flaw? Not necessarily. But if the Blue Jays do come up short, that will likely be a big reason why.
Key Player: José Berríos
The Toronto offense is so strong that you could remove any single player from the lineup and it wouldn’t hurt that much. And Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman both seem like relatively sure things to be at least above-average starters. But after spending most of his 20s as a decent-to-excellent starting pitcher, José Berríos collapsed in 2022. He pitched 172.0 innings but managed only a 5.39 ERA and a -0.6 bWAR. For this Blue Jays team to win the AL East, Berrios will need to be a good No. 3 starter, not a drag on the roster.
2023 Projection
93-69 (First in the AL East, lose in World Series)
American League Central
Chicago White Sox
2022 Results: 81-81 (2nd in AL Central)
Biggest additions: Andrew Benintendi, Mike Clevinger
Biggest subtractions: José Abreu, Johnny Cueto, AJ Pollock
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Bryan Ramos, 3B (96)
Biggest Strength: High Floor
Maybe Luis Robert finally blossoms into the star we expected a few years ago. Maybe Andrew Vaughn get entrenched at first base and becomes a slugger. Maybe Eloy Jiménez can stay healthy and carry his 140 OPS+ from 2022 over a full season. But maybe none of that happens, and if so, what the White Sox can count on is that the entire starting lineup could (should?) be at least competent. Even second base, filled just a month ago with the re-signing of Elvis Andrus, is good enough. The team needs health (the bench and minor leagues are pretty barren), but there’s no dead spot here.
Biggest Weakness: Rotational Inconsistency?
Dylan Cease was decent in 2021, star-level in 2022. Lance Lynn was elite in 2021, middling in 2022. Lucas Giolito was a Cy Young candidate in 2019 but has gotten worse each season since and was flat-out bad last year. Mike Clevinger has flirted with eliteness, but then only pitched 156 innings over the last three years as he works back from Tommy John. There’s a world where they’re all good-to-great, but if the White Sox roll snake eyes, it could go shockingly poorly.
Key Player: Tim Anderson
The batting average isn’t going anywhere (Tim Anderson just topped .300 for the fourth straight year). And he’s never been and never going to be a true slugger. But Anderson’s slugging percentage fell to .395 last year after .495 over the previous three seasons combined. It doesn’t have to get back over .500, but the team could really use its leadoff man hitting enough doubles and the occasional homer to get it back to .450 or so.
2023 Projection
77-85 (Third in AL Central)
Cleveland Guardians
2022 Results: 92-70 (1st in AL Central, lost in ALDS)
Biggest additions: Josh Bell, Mike Zunino
Biggest subtractions: Austin Hedges, Owen Miller
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Daniel Espino, SP (7)
Biggest Strength: All Those Baserunners
The Guardian offense was something of a unicorn last year, finishing seventh in the league in batting average but 28th in ISO. Only the Tigers had fewer home runs; only the White Sox had more singles. I’m skeptical of that being a long-term approach for an offense (everyone said the Royals had fixed offense in 2015 too, and then they … didn’t), but it’s at least fascinating to see a different approach. Every Guardian regular but Mike Zunino could top a .320 OBP. That’s fun.
Biggest Weakness: The Other Side of the Outfield Wall
All those baserunners are great. But in an MLB environment where three of every four guys on the mound throws pitches that would have gotten them burned for being a witch in 1963, it’s hard to rely on getting three, four, five hits in a row. An offense needs a few guys who can be a legit power threat. Joe Sheehan pushed for the Guardians to sign Aaron Judge this offseason, and while that was never going to be more than a pipe dream, he’d have looked amazing in this offense. The Guardians were held to 2 or fewer runs in five of seven playoff games. Sometimes you need a bopper.
Key Player: Triston McKenzie
We know Shane Bieber is a star. We know Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac are just some guys. Suddenly this team’s rotation is shallower than it’s been in a long time. A team can make it work with two big-time starters, but just one? Triston McKenzie put it together last year into a great season, and he’ll need to do it again for the Guardians to win the division for the second straight year.
2023 Projection
85-77 (Second in AL Central)
Detroit Tigers
2022 Results: 66-96 (4th in AL Central)
Biggest additions: Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen
Biggest subtractions: Joe Jiménez, Gregory Soto, Tucker Barnhart, Andrew Chafin, Jeimer Candelario
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Jackson Jobe, SP (91)
Biggest Strength: The Knowledge That Time Is Fleeting
The Tigers aren’t the worst team in baseball. But there’s a good chance they are the least interesting. Javier Báez should rebound, Spencer Torkelson could start to put it together. But the next Tiger who people will buy tickets to see is probably not currently in the organization.
Biggest Weakness: The Whole ‘Hitting’ Thing
The Tigers don’t have a good pitching staff, but their offense last year was impressive in its futility. Among Tigers with at least 150 plate appearances, only Riley Greene topped a .305 on-base percentage; only backup catcher Eric Haase topped a .393 slugging. They hit 17 fewer home runs than any other team. The only new member of the lineup, Nick Maton, certainly isn’t going to fix that.
Key Player: Austin Meadows
Austin Meadows looked like a star in 2019, when he slashed .291/.364/.558 and got MVP votes. In three (partial) seasons since then, he’s at .231/.317/.422, including only 36 games in his Tigers debut in 2022. Him getting back to what he looked like in his best year could actually start to make a very underwhelming roster much more interesting.
2023 Projection
68-94 (Fifth in AL Central)
Kansas City Royals
2022 Results: 65-97 (5th in AL Central)
Biggest additions: Jordan Lyles, Aroldis Chapman, Ryan Yarbrough
Biggest subtractions: Michael Taylor
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Gavin Cross, OF (73)
Biggest Strength: Ascending Offense
It started with Bobby Witt Jr. (Well, I guess technically it started with Salvador Perez more than a decade ago, but that was a Royal generation back now.) Now, MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and others have arrived. The lineup isn’t deep, but if the young guys click — and if Perez has another good year or two in him — the top of this lineup could be pretty strong.
Biggest Weakness: The Guys Throwing the Ball
It’s not really a great sign when the biggest offseason pitching moves for a team that finished 27th in ERA last year are (a) re-signing a 39-year-old in Zack Greinke who averaged 4.8 K/9 last year, (b) signing a 32-year-old in Jordan Lyles who has never had an ERA better than 4.11 and had a 7.02 in 2020 and (c) signing a 35-year-old reliever in Aroldis Chapman who collapsed last year and quit on his team. The Royals really need to hope that (finally) axing Cal Eldred as pitching coach at the end of last season is the actual move that will make the difference.
Key Player: Bobby Witt Jr.
A 22-year-old shortstop going 20/30 in his big-league debut is never (never, ever ever) going to be a failure, but it’s fair to say that more was expected out of Bobby Witt Jr. than a .294 OBP and 0.9 bWAR as a rookie. If the Royals are going to make moves on the rebuilding process, Witt needs to start showing he can be the best player on a good team.
2023 Projection
75-87 (Fourth in AL Central)
Minnesota Twins
2022 Results: 78-84 (3rd in AL Central)
Biggest additions: Pablo López, Joey Gallo, Christian Vázquez, Kyle Farmer, Michael Taylor, Donovan Solano
Biggest subtractions: Luis Arraez, Gio Urshela, Miguel Sanó, Gary Sánchez, Dylan Bundy, Michael Fulmer
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Brooks Lee, SS (36)
Biggest Strength: The Alliteration Squad
For however long they are healthy, the Twins’ lineup will start with Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, and not many teams can boast a 1-2 like that. Buxton is entering his ninth season and qualified for the batting title once, while it took three teams and three contracts this offseason for Correa to find a training staff that would sign off on his physical. So this might be a “here for a good time, not a long time” situation. But on the off chance both can be healthy at the same time, it could be an exciting time in the Twin Cities.
Biggest Weakness: A Bullpen That Can’t Support a Mediocre Rotation, and a Rotation That Can’t Support a Mediocre Bullpen
That’s convoluted, but it’s also kind of true. The addition of Pablo López to go with Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan atop the rotation doesn’t give the Twins a stout group of starters, but it’s good enough that a strong bullpen would patch over most of the deficiencies. The bullpen is Jhoan Duran and a bunch of question marks, but I wouldn’t be scared of it if there were a Mets-esque starting rotation that kept the relievers’ innings in check. Unfortunately, the Twins have a B- rotation and a C+ bullpen, and neither will paper over the deficiencies of the other.
Key Player: Byron Buxton
What, you were expecting Donovan Solano? This team goes where Byron Buxton takes them. He’s put up a .558 slugging percentage over the last four years, but he’s played only 51% of the Twins’ games in that time. If he can stay healthy for 130 games, this team wins the division.
2023 Projection
87-75 (First in the AL Central, loses in ALCS)
American League West
Houston Astros
2022 Results: 106-56 (1st in AL West, won World Series)
Biggest additions: José Abreu
Biggest subtractions: Justin Verlander, Christian Vázquez, Aledmys Díaz, Trey Mancini, Will Smith, Yulieski Gurriel
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: None
Biggest Strength: A Never-Ending Parade of Star Players
If you look at a team’s depth chart on FanGraphs, there’s a column for “how acquired.” And of the Astros’ projected nine starting position players and five starting pitchers (plus Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr., both hurt for now), the only ones who originated outside the organization are new first baseman José Abreu, Martín Maldonado (who liked it in Houston so much he left and came back) and Yordan Alvarez, who was technically acquired in a trade with the Dodgers but had never even played a minor-league game before the trade. This is the best player-development team in the game right now, and if they put someone in the lineup, that player will probably be a star.
Biggest Weakness: Increasing Age
With McCullers likely opening on the IL, Hunter Brown should crack the rotation to open the season, and that makes him the only player on the roster likely to see significant time who is under the age of 25. Abreu, Maldonado, Altuve and the also-injured Michael Brantley are firmly in their mid-to-late 30s. And if you’ll note, this team has no one in the top 100 prospects in the Prospect Vault. This is still one of the small handful of candidates for best team in baseball, but at some point the Astros are going to have to turn the page on some of these guys.
Key Player: Jeremy Peña
For at least as long as Altuve is out (and maybe beyond), Jeremy Peña is going to be called on to be the leadoff hitter for this team. And if all you saw of him was the postseason last year, when he won the MVP of the ALCS and the World Series, you’re probably fine with that. But Peña managed only a .289 on-base percentage last year, his first in the bigs. Some age and experience should help that, but it needs to, because it will be real hard for a wannabe contender to be a contender if its leadoff hitter is only reaching base 29% of the time.
2023 Projection
90-72 (First in the AL West, lose in the ALCS)
Los Angeles Angels
2022 Results: 73-89 (3rd in AL West)
Biggest additions: Gio Urshela, Hunter Renfroe, Tyler Anderson, Brandon Drury, Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Brett Phillips
Biggest subtractions: Michael Lorenzen
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Logan O’Hoppe, C (50)
Biggest Strength: A Pair of Unstoppable Baseball Megazords
The Angels have (finally!) gotten some reinforcements for Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout this offseason, and the team is actually pretty interesting. But the strength of this roster is still maybe the best baseball player ever and then also maybe the best baseball player ever. The team never making the postseason with both those guys on the roster is frankly astonishing. Go on, boys. Make Tungsten Arm O’Doyle proud.
Biggest Weakness: Bullpen
Good relievers can come from anywhere, like the happiest version of the Whammy on Press Your Luck, but they’ll kind of have to in Anaheim, because, while the Angels have bolstered the lineup (welcome, Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela) and rotation (hi there, Tyler Anderson), the bullpen is much less exciting. Is there a reliever here who would even be an exciting “bad team’s lone all-star representative”? Ryan Tepera’s MVP vote notwithstanding, I don’t think so. Carlos Estévez is the closer, and he hasn’t had a FIP under 4.03 since 2017.
Key Player: Mike Ohtani, or Shohei Trout
Look, even with an improved supporting cast, this team needs Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani to be their super selves. Lose one for any length of time and they’re a .500 team at best. But let’s just root for health from these guys in maybe their last season together and bask in the ridiculousness.
2023 Projection
86-76 (Third in AL West, lose in ALDS)
Oakland Athletics
2022 Results: 60-102 (5th in AL West)
Biggest additions: Esteury Ruiz, Kyle Muller, Shintaro Fujinami, Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Trevor May, Jesús Aguilar, Chad Smith, JJ Bleday, Manny Piña
Biggest subtractions: Sean Murphy, A.J. Puk
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Tyler Soderstrom, C/1B (47)
Biggest Strength: Uh, Moneyball Is Entertaining?
It feels like the A’s have been rebuilding for a long time, but they actually made the playoffs three straight years 2018-2020 and added a winning season in 2021. I know, feels crazy to me too. But in its quest to extort a new stadium from Oakland, the team bottomed out so hard last year that it feels like it’s been longer. And 2023 doesn’t feel like it will get better. If stretched, you could say that a heart of the order of (in some order) Ramón Laureano, Seth Brown and Jesús Aguilar could at least be interesting, but then if they are, they won’t be on Oakland all season. Just watch the movie and remember the good times, guys.
Biggest Weakness: An Empty (Probably Velcro) Wallet
When will the A’s be good again? You never want to doubt this front office I guess, and they were successful only, like, 18 months ago. But it’s really hard to guess when this team will be good again. Even their farm system is only ranked 27th by The Athletic’s Keith Law. Until we get a resolution on the stadium/location thing (and that doesn’t seem to be in the offing), this team seems likely to pinch pennies and deal good players, and in a division where the other four teams appear to really be trying, that’s a recipe for some futility.
Key Player: Esteury Ruiz
“No we damn well will get Esteury Ruiz in the Sean Murphy trade” is a weird line in the sand, but it appears to be the one Oakland drew, passing up on William Contreras to loop the Brewers into the deal and get Ruiz. And with more stolen bases likely this season because of the new rules, Ruiz could be a fun player in a “Billy Hamilton but he can actually hit a little” sort of way. He’s been good this spring so far. If it turns out he can’t hit at the big-league level, though, the A’s will have gotten basically nothing for one of the best catchers in baseball.
2023 Projection
69-93 (Fifth in the AL West)
Seattle Mariners
2022 Results: 90-72 (2nd in AL West, lost in ALDS)
Biggest additions: Teoscar Hernández, Kolten Wong, AJ Pollock, Tommy La Stella, Cooper Hummel, Trevor Gott, Kole Calhoun
Biggest subtractions: Mitch Haniger, Matthew Boyd, Adam Frazier, Kyle Lewis, Erik Swanson, Jesse Winker, Abraham Toro, Carlos Santana, Curt Casali
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Emerson Hancock, SP (86)
Biggest Strength: The Trademaster General
Not every deal Jerry Dipoto has struck as the Mariners’ general manager has been a winner, but in the aggregate, I doubt anyone is complaining. He addressed the team’s two biggest needs this offseason (the departure of Mitch Haniger and the they-still-haven’t-fixed-it hole at second base that has been there since Robinson Canó left) in trades before the calendar even turned to 2023, grabbing Teoscar Hernández and Kolten Wong. The rotation has two trade acquisitions and is one of the league’s best. The starting nine has six trade acquisitions, and it could be eight on the days Tom Murphy and/or Cooper Hummel play. The Mariners are that annoying team in your fantasy league that makes two trades a week and ends the season with only two players it initially drafted. But it works for them.
Biggest Weakness: The Injury Sliders Aren’t Set to Zero
I don’t hate Tommy La Stella as a bench bat, except he played all of 12 games in the field last year and hasn’t played anything but second base with anything approaching regularity in half a decade. And after him … Cooper Hummel and Sam Haggerty are versatile in the sense that they can play multiple positions about equally poorly. This lineup could be great, but if a player or two goes down, the depth is a real question.
Key Player: Jarred Kelenic
The Mariners have five starters who could all be at least league-average pitchers (and potentially much more) in 2023, plus Chris Flexen to sub in as needed. The rotation is one of the game’s best — if Marco Gonzales is your fifth starter (and … Logan Gilbert is your fourth?!), you’ve definitely been doing something right. Meanwhile, we more or less know what we’ll get from eight of the nine lineup slots. But Jarred Kelenic has had some real failure to launch so far in his career. If his absolutely electric spring training is an indication he’s figuring it out, this lineup starts to get amazing. If it was just “It’s spring, chill,” though, the Mariners no longer have the outfield depth to paper over his failures.
2023 Projection
89-73 (Second in AL West, Lose in ALDS)
Texas Rangers
2022 Results: 68-94 (4th in AL West)
Biggest additions: Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Robbie Grossman, Jake Odorizzi, Will Smith
Biggest subtractions: Nick Solak, Matt Moore, Kolby Allard, Kole Calhoun
Top-ranked player in the Prospect Vault: Jack Leiter, SP (28)
Biggest Strength: Up the Middle
This works better on the days Adolis García plays center field, which might not actually happen that much anymore. But on those days, the Rangers will have García in center, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien at short and second, and Jonah Heim or Mitch Garver catching, and that’s an up-the-middle group that could represent a World Series team, especially when Jacob deGrom is on the mound.
Biggest Weakness: Do They Know Outfielders Matter?
I confess that I don’t understand why you would re-sign Martín Pérez and add deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Jake Odorizzi to rebuild the pitching staff, and then just … ignore the outfield. The Rangers were never that seriously linked to guys like Brandon Nimmo or Mitch Haniger or Michael Conforto who could have really fleshed out this lineup. Even poke around at a Jurickson Profar reunion. Instead, it’s Garcia and then some huge wild cards in Bubba Thompson, Robbie Grossman and Leody Taveras, and that’s a bit of a letdown after all the pitcher spending.
Key Player: Jacob deGrom
Obligatory. If deGrom can stay healthy and pitch like we know he can, he’s the best pitcher in baseball and the rest of the guys are a really nice SP2-SP6 or so. If he misses significant time, there’s just no ace here, and the overall lineup probably isn’t good enough to paper over it. It was a big swing to sign deGrom, and sometimes big swings lead to home runs, but sometimes they lead to a sad walk back to the dugout.
2023 Projection
78-84 (Fourth in AL West)
American League Award Winners
MVP: Mike Trout
I’m weak, I can’t help it. Best player ever. Give him one more award.
Cy Young: Jacob deGrom
If he’s healthy, he wins it. If he’s not, he doesn’t. Simple as that.
Rookie of the Year: Gunnar Henderson
Cool name, clear lineup spot, full season. No complaints here.
Manager of the Year: Phil Nevin
First full year on the job, he takes two great players to the postseason. That’s enough.
American League Playoffs
Projecting outcomes over 162 games is a fool’s errand. Projecting them over a 3-, 5- or 7-game series is quintuply so. But that’s part of the gig, so here we go.
Here are my projected playoff seeds in the American League:
- Toronto Blue Jays (AL East winner)
- Houston Astros (AL West winner)
- Minnesota Twins (AL Central winner)
- Seattle Mariners (first Wild Card)
- New York Yankees (second Wild Card)
- Los Angeles Angels (third Wild Card)
American League Wild Card Series
Angels over Twins (3)
The Twins’ postseason woes continue, while the world gets to see Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani actually celebrate a victory together.
Mariners over Yankees (3)
The Yankees just need more than one hitter they can count on, and Aaron Judge isn’t enough for a postseason series.
American League Division Series
Blue Jays over Angels (5)
There’s more than a small part of me that wants to say the World Baseball Classic narrative that had Ohtani and Trout match up to end it becomes the story of the season, and the Angels roll through the playoffs, but narratives aren’t enough. The Blue Jays’ strength carries it.
Astros over Mariners (4)
The Mariners breaking their postseason drought only to fall to the Astros in the playoffs … and then doing it again the next year would be really frustrating, but the Astros should have another year to be the big brother in the American League before age starts catching up with them.
American League Championship Series
Blue Jays over Astros (7)
This could go either way, really, but the ridiculous strength of the Blue Jays’ lineup is enough for me to pick them. The Astros’ pitching staff could shut anyone down, though, so this is the series I feel the least confident in.
