PGA DFS Hot Takes for the 2025 PGA Championship

From a viewing perspective, it’s fun to experience a course for the first time (or the first time in years) in a Major. But from a data and money-making perspective, having a PGA Championship at a course that we see every year is a gift. The fact that it happens to be one of my favorite Course Fit Models on Tour is icing on the cake.

Course Fit: The 2025 PGA Championship

We’re not simply using the CF Model from Quail Hollow, though. PGA Championships have specific setups, meant to challenge players more than the average week on Tour, even if it’s rarely as difficult as a US Open. This difficulty lowers the effect of iron play and increases the effect of around-the-green play. So the CF Model we’re using is a predictive blend of Quail Hollow and PGA Championships as a whole:

Quail Hollow is awesome because it’s one of the only courses that always tests players as if it’s a Major Championship based on its driving emphasis. Most courses either emphasize distance or accuracy, not both. But in PGA Championships, US Opens and at Quail Hollow, both are more predictive than usual.

Be careful, though! Distance is something the whole field is chasing, so the prudent play may be to find the best GPP Scores by looking at the most accurate drivers in the world (that also are good around the greens).

Hot Takes for the 2025 PGA Championship

1. Jon Rahm reminds us all that he’s one of the best in the world

Jon Rahm was the best driver in the world for a few years before making the switch to LIV. He never had Rory’s prodigious power, but he was Scottie-accurate with more length than Scottie has. We all know he’s struggled to actually win on LIV, but I’m encouraged by his steady play and the fact that he finished 14th at Augusta. I know that’s not what he’s looking for in a Major, but Augusta deemphasizes driving, so this week is a much better opportunity to find himself in contention again.

Rahm has the best GPP Score over $10k at the moment despite the fact that we’re not projecting him as well off the tee as his peers:

Projecting LIV guys is difficult. When making manual edits, I try to be conservative with the adjustments in such a way that makes it easy to make directionally correct decisions. As in, if I bumped his driving to where I think it should be, then his massive GPP Score would be tough to trust. A conservative projection that results in a great GPP Score means we can confidently play him.