Shane Baz DVOA, Advanced Stats, & Fantasy Rankings

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz brought swing-and-miss stuff once again in Monday's 16-1 drubbing of the Red Sox. Baz pitched six innings, allowing one run on two hits (including a solo home run) and no walks with 11 strikeouts. The 25-year-old now has double-digit strikeouts in two of his three starts, culminating in a 2-0 record with a 1.42 ERA, a 12.79 K/9 rate, and a 1.89 BB/9 rate in 19 IP. His curveball has been one of his best swing-and-miss pitches, and he has thrown it nearly 15% more often in 2025 compared to 2024. He will be put to the test in his next scheduled start against the Yankees, but he has been so hot that fantasy managers may find the potential reward worth the risk of starting him.

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz was dominant on Tuesday, pitching seven shutout innings while striking out 10 in a 7-0 win over the Pirates. Baz racked up strikeouts against the team that drafted him, throwing his curveball 35 percent of the time with a 50% whiff rate on the pitch. He posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 69 strikeouts in 79 innings in 2024, but 2025 marks the first year that he will have the opportunity to pitch a full season. A huge breakout could be coming for the former top prospect, and he should be universally rostered in fantasy.

Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Shane Baz hasn't put up great numbers in his two Grapefruit League starts, but despite another rough showing on Thursday against the Washington Nationals in which he gave up four earned runs on five hits while walking none and striking out two in 4 1/3 innings, he was encouraged with his outing. "That was the best four-run game I've ever pitched," Baz told manager Kevin Cash. The 25-year-old was able to pitch into the fifth inning and showed improved control and command of his pitches. Overall, Baz has given up 10 earned runs with four walks and five strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings. It hasn't been pretty, but he continues to improve his control and command after missing all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. The arrow is pointing up, but the fact that Baz hasn't thrown more than 108 2/3 frames in a single season keeps his upside low entering 2025 as a back-end fantasy starter, at best.