Fantasy Baseball 2025: The Changing Player Pool (Part 1)

Fantasy managers have different approaches as to when they start drafting teams. Some, like me, cannot wait to jump in a draft room as soon as the baseball season ends (or sooner), while others prefer to wait until the calendar turns (and football season winds down) before they begin drafting. My early drafting consists exclusively of NFBC Draft Championship (DC) leagues.

Still, other contests are available, such as the NFBC’s Gladiator contest for which Vlad Sedler recently published a Strategy Guide. As I completed my first few DC drafts this offseason, I was struck by how different the player pool felt to me, at least as compared to the final few weeks in March, when I was deeply enmeshed in drafting higher-stakes leagues in multiple formats.

This two-part article will provide an overview of the changing player pool – or at least my perceptions of it – from position to position. Part 1 covers catcher, first base, second base, third base and shortstop; Part 2 will cover outfield, utility only, starting pitcher and relief pitcher. While hopefully beneficial to all FTN subscribers, this article is intended to guide managers just starting to dip their toes back into drafts since last March.

Catcher

Quick Take: Last season’s disappointing middle tier has created further separation between the top choices and the rest of the field.

Last year, in Main Events, Adley Rutschman was the top choice at catcher (ADP: 66), with J.T. Realmuto (ADP: 77), William Contreras (ADP: 87) and Will Smith (ADP: 92) forming a clear, not-too-distant, second tier. For 2025, William Contreras is the king of the position, and managers should expect to pay a stiff price – potentially as high as a second-round pick – to roster him. The next tier, starting several rounds later, is occupied by Yainer Diaz and Rutschman.

My key takeaway from early 2025 drafts: the catcher position feels considerably less deep now than last March. During Main Events, there was an extended – and popular – middle tier of catchers, most of whom ultimately disappointed their managers. 

Cal Raleigh (ADP: 151, 73 R – 34 HR – 100 RBI – 6 SB – .220) turned out to be a bargain on the Round 10/11 turn (ADP: 151), unlike the many other catchers drafted around him: 

It’s not a pretty collection of stats. The elder Contreras played well when healthy but logged only 84 games. O’Hoppe got off to an excellent start and, while his season-ending stats were solid, he was putrid in the second half, hitting .196 with only 14 RBI. The rest of these catchers, with ADPs in Rounds 10-13, failed to meet expectations. Many were not even worth rostering for sizable portions of the season.

What does this mean for 2025? Except for Contreras, O’Hoppe and Alvarez, the above catchers are being selected much later in drafts. There are very few options who have moved up to replace them, and the risers are limited to just Shea Langeliers and Tyler Stephenson In March 2024 Main Events, 18 catchers were drafted in the first 200 picks. In early DC drafts, only 12.

The gap between the high-end options and the middle tier is growing, and reflects, in part, the increased playing time being accumulated by today’s top catchers. For instance, five of the top six catchers by ADP for 2025 accumulated over 600 plate appearances last season: William Contreras (679), Salvador Perez (652), Rutschman (638), Raleigh (628) and Diaz (619).  The lone exception – Smith – had the next-most plate appearances (544) and hits in the middle of a stacked Dodgers lineup. Additionally, to the extent Willson Contreras will be the Cardinals’ regular first baseman in 2025, he also has a chance to accumulate over 600 plate appearances (which is why his ADP has been rising recently). Note that Contreras’ career-high in PA is 544 (in 2018), but he’s only ever been a catcher. Drafters will need to decide whether rostering one of the top catchers is worth the cost, but for 2025, it appears that the next tier or two is much more limited following a season where the aggregate performance from mid-ranked options was highly disappointing.

Finally, in DC leagues, managers also are being introduced to the next crop of catchers – Rushing, Endy Rodriguez, Edgar Quero, Agustin Ramirez, Kyle Teel, Samuel Basallo, Moises Ballesteros and Drake Baldwin. It is possible – if not likely – that several of these options will be relevant in 30-round FAAB leagues.

First Base

Quick Take: Contrary to most prior years, first base now feels like the shallowest position in fantasy other than catcher.

I won’t mince words here: first base appears weak, with only a dozen or so options that managers will feel good about drafting as their first baseman (as opposed to their corner infielder). While in recent years, positional scarcity has not existed outside of catcher, in 2025, managers should at least consider prioritizing the early drafting of a first baseman.

In the 2024 Main Event, there was a clear top five at first base: Freddie Freeman (ADP: 9), Matt Olson (17), Bryce Harper (19), Pete Alonso (30) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (33). While the order has changed (Guerrero is the early top choice), the same five players are atop the early 2025 ADP at the position.

In DC leagues drafting now, and excluding Perez, who should be used at catcher, there are only seven other first basemen being selected in the first 12 rounds. All of them currently have ADPs in Rounds 7-9: Josh Naylor, Spencer Steer, Triston Casas, Christian Walker, Vinnie Pasquantino, Cody Bellinger and Jake Burger. All these players have certain risks and/or weaknesses but, due to the shallowness of the position, they likely will continue to be drafted aggressively.

Two of the reasons why the position seems weaker than normal: 

(1) the sheer number of disappointing seasons posted by first basemen in 2024
(2) several players have lost eligibility at the position for 2025 

Here are some examples:

• Christian Encarnacion-Strand (2 HR, .190 AVG in 29 games)
• Paul Goldschmidt (22 HR, .245 AVG, only 135 R+RBI), 
• Casas (13 HR, .241 AVG in 63 games)
• Spencer Torkelson (10 HR, .219 AVG, only 92 G due to a demotion)
• Alec Bohm (no longer 1B eligible)
• Rhys Hoskins (.214 AVG)
• Isaac Paredes (no longer 1B eligible)
• Jeimer Candelario (.225 AVG, only 112 games)
• Brandon Drury (4 HR, only 43 R+RBI in 97 games, .169 AVG, no longer 1B eligible)
• Anthony Rizzo (8 HR, .228 AVG in only 92 games)
• Ryan Mountcastle (13 HR in 123 games)
• Andrew Vaughn (19 HR, .246 AVG). 

All these players had 2024 Main Event ADPs in the Top 250.

First base will be a challenging position for managers in 2025. Several players in the top tier (Olson and Alonso) contribute only to three roto categories, and the second tier is littered with players who have certain performance risks and/or weaknesses. After that tier, however, there is roughly a four-round gap before other, less attractive options start coming off the board. Managers will need to decide if first base is a position worth investing high draft capital, or if they will wait on the position, hoping to find a late-round bargain.

Finally, despite the apparent relative weakness of the position, it is worth noting that according to Steamer, four of the 10 hitters with the highest projected 2025 batting averages qualify at first base: Luis Arraez (.307), Guerrero (.297), Freeman (.287) and Yandy Diaz (.286).

Second Base

Quick take: Lacking star power at the top, this position is sneakily deep with several decent (or better) options available in the middle and later rounds of drafts.

The following table, depicting how many second basemen were drafted in the first eight rounds of 2024 Main Events compared to the first eight rounds of early DC leagues (through December 5), illustrates how the top of the position appears weaker now:

Interestingly, the only second baseman selected in the first two rounds of DC leagues – Ketel Marte – had an 8th-round ADP in the 2024 Main Event. Some of last season’s top-ranked second basemen – Mookie Betts and Ha-Seong Kim – are no longer eligible at the position. Several others had disappointing seasons and now have lower ADPs (Marcus Semien, Gleyber Torres).

While shallower up top, second base is a deep position and, in my opinion, a great source for stolen bases. For instance, the following second basemen all have early DC ADPs outside of the first eight rounds (listed with their 2024 stolen bases):

• Luis Garcia Jr. – 22
• Brice Turang – 50 
• Nico Hoerner – 31 
• Luis Rengifo – 24
• Bryson Stott – 32 
• Andrés Giménez – 30 
• Maikel Garcia – 37 
• Zack Gelof – 25 
• José Caballero – 44 
• Otto Lopez – 20 
• David Hamilton – 33 
• Dylan Moore – 32 

In 2024, 24 players stole 30 or more bases. Thirty-three percent of them are eligible at second base to start 2025.

In contrast, most second basemen are lacking in power. As of this writing, Steamer projects 27 players to hit 30 or more home runs in 2025 and none are eligible at second base. The only second basemen currently projected to hit 20 or more home runs: Marte (27), Matt McLain (25), Semien (25), Brandon Lowe (24), Albies (24), Altuve (22) and Gelof (20). Second base also is not a great source for batting average. Steamer currently projects 19 players to hit .280 or above, and Arraez is the only second base eligible player in that group.

While weaker at the top, second base is a relatively deep position, and there are several intriguing options available late in drafts. For instance, here are some of the more interesting second basemen being taken outside of the first 15 rounds in early DC drafts:

• Lowe (lefty power hitter who will hit in the Florida version of Yankee Stadium)
• Brendan Donovan (also OF eligible; contributes to multiple categories including average)
• Jonathan India (new park still hitter friendly and might lead off in front of Bobby Witt Jr.)
• Caballero (triple eligibility and stole 44 bags last season)
• Lopez (stole 20 bases in only 117 games while hitting .270)
• Kristian Campbell (2024 Minor League Player of the Year; slashed .330/.439/.558)
• Hamilton (33 SB in only 98 games; should run wild if he gets the playing time)

Third Base

Quick Take: A pretty deep position in the early, middle, and late rounds of drafts. In addition to being strong in power, there are now multiple speed options at the position.

Third base has felt like one of the weaker fantasy positions over the last few seasons, and it now feels deep in 2025, with many solid options littered throughout the draft. Initially, I had been concerned about third base. Two of the position’s top options in 2024 Main Event drafts – Elly De La Cruz and Gunnar Henderson – are no longer eligible at the position, and several of the higher-ranked players disappointed in 2024, including Royce Lewis, Nolan Arenado, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Josh Jung. Now that I’ve completed several DC drafts, however, my concerns about the depth of the position have dissipated.

Up top, there are five stud third basemen in the first three rounds of early DC drafts. Jose Ramirez cemented his position as the top player and is being taken in the middle of the first round. After him, three players are being taken within five or so picks of each other: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Rafael Devers and Austin Riley. Chisholm is coming off a 24 HR, 40 SB season, and now plays his home games in Yankee Stadium with the “short porch” in right field.  Devers and Riley are coming off disappointing 2024 campaigns but are strong four-category performers. About 10 picks later comes Manny Machado, one of the game’s most consistent players.

The next tier of third basemen, all with Rounds 7-8 ADPs in early DCs, presents managers with many interesting choices. The tier includes Lewis, Mark Vientos, Junior Caminero and Jordan Westburg, each of whom possesses a strong upside and just enough uncertainty to give managers at least a slight pause. If missing on these players, fear not; the next tier of third baseman is a trio of veterans with solid power – Burger, Matt Chapman and Alex Bregman.

The following tier of third basemen, starting in Round 12 of early DCs, includes some intriguing options for managers looking to fulfil specific categorical needs. The tier is comprised of:

• Rengifo (eligible at second base; stole 24 bases in only 78 games while hitting .300)
• Alec Bohm (had 97 RBI each of last two seasons; hit .274 or better from 2022-2024)
• Eugenio Suárez (after horrible start, finished 2024 with strong 90/30/101/2/256 stat line)
• Jung (missed most of 2024 due to HBP and surgery; had 23 HR in 122 games in 2023)
• Maikel Garcia (scored 84 runs and went 37-for-39 in stolen bases despite an unlucky BABIP)
• Max Muncy (had 36 HR and 105 RBI in 2023; went 47/15/48/1/232 in 73 games in 2024)
• Nolan Arenado (seven 30/100 seasons; hit .272 in down year; going to better team & park?)

Third base also has later-round options that can help fill out a roster. Players such as Christopher Morel, Noelvi Marte, Joey Ortiz, Coby Mayo, Matt Shaw and José Tena, for instance, have upside that could make their early draft prices seem like real bargains.

Shortstop

Quick Take: Full of early-round studs, this position thins out quicker than most; managers may want to prioritize drafting at least one shortstop relatively early.

Remember the table above showing that five second basemen are being drafted in the first eight rounds of early DC leagues? Well, there currently are six shortstops with DC ADPs in the first two rounds, and at least four of them are likely to be taken in the first round of all drafts. Additionally, three shortstops have Round 3 ADPs. Thus, whereas some positions lack star power at the top, shortstop is not one of them.

At the very top is Bobby Witt Jr., who has been drafted in the first three picks of all completed DC leagues. Not far behind him are Elly De La Cruz and Gunnar Henderson, both of whom are being drafted in the first half of Round 1. Closing out the first-round shortstops is Mookie Betts. Then it’s Francisco Lindor and Trea Turner, both of whom have Round 2 ADPs. Managers’ thirst for elite shortstops persists in Round 3, with the selections of Corey Seager, Oneil Cruz and CJ Abrams. The early Steamer projections illustrate why this group of nine shortstops is so coveted:

Following the selection of nine shortstops in the first three rounds of drafts, there are only two others with ADPs in the next 75 or so picks: Willy Adames and Zach Neto. Thereafter, there are 10 shortstops drafted in the next four or so rounds of DC leagues, each of whom possesses some strengths and weaknesses:

• Ezequiel Tovar
  • Strengths: 26 HR in 2024; .269 AVG; home games at Coors Field
  • Weaknesses: Terrible plate approach; .235 xBA; 6-for-11 in SB
• Matt McLain
  • Strengths: 65/16/50/14/290 in 89 games in 2023; Great American Ball Park
  • Weaknesses: Missed all of 2024 due to injury; 28.5% K% in 2023
• Anthony Volpe
  • Strengths: 28 SB in 2024; cut 2023 K% by over 5%; 90 runs scored
  • Weaknesses: Career .228 AVG; traded power for contact?  Only 12 HR in 2024
• Bo Bichette
  • Strengths: Career .290 AVG; hit .290+ from 2019-2023; three 20-HR seasons
  • Weaknesses: Terrible 2024 (hit .225 with 4 HR in 81 games); disappearing speed
• Xander Bogaerts
  • Strengths: Career .289 AVG; dual eligibility; 11+ HR since 2016; running more
  • Weaknesses: Only average power and speed; missed substantial portion of 2024
• Ceddanne Rafaela
  • Strengths: Posted 15 HR/19 SB in first full season; glove secures playing time
  • Weaknesses: Terrible plate approach (2.6% BB%, 26.4% K%); mediocre AVG
• Xavier Edwards
  • Strengths: 31 SB in only 70 games; hit .328; should have everyday playing time
  • Weaknesses: 1 HR in 387 MLB PA; hurts in HR & RBI; .398 BABIP helped AVG
• Jeremy Peña
  • Strengths: Ran more in 2024; solid 15/20 season with .266 AVG; strong team
  • Weaknesses: Low BB% and OBP; 118 games hitting 5^th through 8^th in lineup
• Masyn Winn
  • Strengths: Solid 85/15/57/11/267 slash line in first full season; playing time safe
  • Weaknesses: Unlikely to excel in HR or SB; rebuilding team; tough home park
• Dansby Swanson
  • Strengths: Durable; career-high 19 SB in 2024; reliable source of runs
  • Weaknesses: Power declined (16 HR) in 2024; two straight seasons under .245

One can expect several of these shortstops, currently being drafted in Rounds 8-13, to outperform their ADP and solidify themselves as higher targets in future seasons.

As noted in articles and podcasts, teams tend to platoon less frequently at shortstop than at other positions. Thus, because most teams employ full-time shortstops, the position tends to thin materially as you move later into drafts. Consequently, after the first 21 options mentioned above, there is roughly a 40-pick gap before players like Trevor Story and Tyler Fitzgerald come off the board. Two of the interesting later options are Carlos Correa, who hit 14 HR with a .310 AVG in only 86 games while battling plantar fasciitis, and Ha-Seong Kim, who is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the beginning of the season.

I find shortstop to be one of the weakest positions after Round 18 or so. Thus, while managers know how challenging it is to be strong at all positions in 15-team leagues, shortstop is one position where managers are advised not to wait too long before drafting at least one of the better options.

Part 2 of my series will cover the outfield, utility only, starting pitcher and relief pitcher positions.