Week 7 Fantasy Football Game By Game Breakdown

Fantasy football rosters will truly be put to the test in Week 7.

Four teams on bye, and those four teams have some of the top players in all of fantasy. That means players like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs and more are off this week. On top of that, there are also more injuries that we will have to continue to keep track of. That also means this week’s game-by-game fantasy breakdown might be the most important one of the season, so strap in.

Good luck.

Week 7 byes: Buffalo, Minnesota, Philadelphia, LA Rams

New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals

Total: 45, ARI -1.5
Pace: ARI: 26.18 sec/snap (2nd), NO: 27.23 sec/snap (7th)

What to watch for: So many injuries. Saints will once again be without Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Marshon Lattimore. Arizona, meanwhile, will be without WR Marquise Brown. DeAndre Hopkins will make his season debut, and the team traded for Robbie Anderson.

Cardinals

Quarterback

In a game featuring two of the worst defenses in the NFL last week, I certainly thought Kyler Murray would, I don’t know, at least score one touchdown. However, that wasn’t the case, as Arizona’s offense continued to struggle despite facing the Seahawks. Murray completed 23-of-37 passes for 222 yards and an interception, though he did make up for it a little bit by adding 100 rushing yards on 10 carries. Murray and the Arizona passing game continue to struggle getting anything going deep down the field, as he is sporting the league’s fifth-lowest intended air yards per pass attempt through six weeks (6.5), while his 2.7 completed air yards per pass attempt is the second-lowest mark among all qualified quarterbacks, ahead of only Baker Mayfield. He has completed just 8-of-30 passes of 20-plus yards, but perhaps the return of an All-Pro wide receiver can turn things around. DeAndre Hopkins is set to make his 2022 debut, which certainly can only help Murray. Since the start of the 2020 season, Murray is averaging nearly 24 more passing yards and eight more fantasy points per game with Hopkins in the lineup. Losing Marquise Brown hurts, though, but you have to think more productive days are ahead for Murray. This week, he faces a Saints secondary that has struggled as of late, coughing up 268 passing yards and three scores to Geno Smith, followed by 300 yards and three touchdowns to Joe Burrow last week. New Orleans is also coughing up the league’s fourth-highest aDOT (8.8 yards), as well as the eighth-most adjusted yards per pass attempt. 

Running Back

With both James Conner and Darrel Williams sidelined last week, Eno Benjamin got the start at running back and saw an elite workload. Benjamin logged an impressive 87% of the offensive snaps Sunday, also running a route on 87% of Arizona’s dropbacks. He handled 18-of-21 running back touches, though he finished the day with just 65 scoreless yards. The production definitely isn’t what you were looking for, but the usage and involvement were both elite, and with Conner and Williams highly unlikely to return to the lineup in Week 7, Benjamin should play the same role Thursday. That alone puts him in the top-24 discussion at the running back position, especially with four more teams on bye. The Saints certainly aren’t the easiest run defense to face but they have taken a bit of a step back in 2022, allowing two 100-yard rushing performances, something they only did three times from 2019 to 2021.

Wide Receiver

He’s back.

After serving his six-game suspension, DeAndre Hopkins will return to the Arizona lineup Thursday night. Hopkins is coming off a strange 2021 season. For the first time in his career, he didn’t exactly see elite volume — his 6.1 targets per game were the lowest of his entire career. Touchdowns were really the story. Hopkins played in 10 games last season but found the end zone eight times, and his 12 end zone targets in 10 contests tied for sixth in all of football. But with Marquise Brown sidelined, Hopkins will have to play a large role. Arizona’s passing game was going through Brown, who was averaging 10.6 targets per game on the season and sporting a target share north of 26%. His 39.4% air yards share is the fifth-highest rate among wideouts, so if Hopkins can step into anything close to this role, he’ll post back-end WR1 numbers at the least. Of course, in Kliff Kingsbury’s vanilla offense, Hopkins will primarily stay on the left side of the formation, which he did over 80% of the time a season ago. Hollywood has lined up on the left side 74% of the time this year. With Marshon Lattimore out for the Saints, this becomes a strong matchup for Hopkins. I’d trust him as a solid WR2 in his first week back.

Rondale Moore remained heavily involved last week, hauling in 6-of-10 targets for 49 yards. He once again primarily played out of the slot, lining up inside 85% of the time, sporting an aDOT of just 3.3 yards. Going forward, his role likely won’t change, especially with Hollywood set to miss some time. In this horizontal raid offense, Moore has been targeted seven times off screens since making his season debut in Week 4, the second most in football, as Arizona continues to scheme touches for Moore. The Cardinals continue to have to throw the football all over the yard (Murray is averaging a career-high 42 pass attempts per game). Moore is a low-end WR3 for the time being and should provide a serviceable floor.

The Cardinals traded for Robbie Anderson, who could easily take A.J. Green’s spot as the WR3 in this offense. He seems unlikely to make his Arizona debut this week, but in an offense that operates out of three-wide sets as much as any team in football, this is definitely a boost to Anderson’s value going forward. 

Tight End

Zach Ertz continues to provide such a safe weekly floor. The veteran tight end hauled in seven passes for 70 yards Sunday, seeing 10 targets. It was Ertz’s fourth game with double-digit targets this season, and keep in mind his snaps were limited back in Week 1. There were some concerns about what his volume might look like with Hopkins and Brown in the lineup, but Ertz should continue to see 7-10 targets each week, especially if this team has to keep throwing the ball so much. He is also seeing high-value looks, as Ertz currently ranks fourth in all of football with seven targets from inside the 10-yard line. He is an obvious must-start tight end, regardless of opponent.

Saints

Quarterback

Jameis Winston (back) was active last week, but Andy Dalton started his third consecutive game for the Saints. We’ll see who is under center in Week 7, but regardless, Winston or Dalton would be a lower-end QB2 simply due to the situation in New Orleans right now. The Saints will be without two of their top three wideouts, and Taysom Hill is going to continue playing a handful of snaps at quarterback. The matchup is obviously great, as Arizona plays at the second-fastest pace in the NFL and operates out of the no-huddle 41.9% of the time in neutral gamescripts, easily the highest rate in the league. However, I just worry about the lack of pass-catchers in New Orleans, as well as the presence of Hill, who attempted four passes last week and carried the ball five times.

Running Back

He hasn’t found the end zone all season, but Alvin Kamara has been fantastic over the last two weeks. After flirting with 200 scrimmage yards in Week 5, Kamara posted 124 total yards on 25 touches Sunday. Over the last two weeks, Kamara has logged 71% of the snaps, compared to just 27.5% for Mark Ingram. The touchdowns haven’t been there, and Kamara has yet to record a carry from inside the 5-yard line so far this season. That won’t last, but it is fair to question if he’s the unquestioned goal-line running back in this offense, especially considering Hill has handled 43% of the Saints carries from inside the 10. Still, the usage lately has been great, especially in the passing game, as Kamara has hauled in 12-of-15 targets over the last two weeks. He is averaging 7.5 targets per game in two contests with Dalton under center, while averaging nearly 28 more receiving yards per game. Arizona just allowed over 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown to rookie Kenneth Walker last week, while opposing offenses are scoring points on 45% of drives against the Cardinals, the second-highest rate in the league. Kamara is a low-end RB1.

Wide Receiver

Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry all missed last week’s game. This week, it appears that Olave will be the only one of the three wideouts to suit up. This should set Olave up for a hefty target share, but with Thomas and Landry out, the rookie will be the unquestioned WR1 for the Saints, which could actually lead to some struggles in this matchup. The Cardinals have done a tremendous job of shutting down opposing team’s top wideouts — despite how underwhelming the overall defense has been, wide receivers are only averaging 22.3 fantasy points per game against Arizona, the sixth fewest in the league. We continue to see Byron Murphy shadow opposing wide receivers and do a terrific job. Olave still has plenty of upside, while seeing a ton of air yards. Olave’s 744 air yards are good for the most in football, while he’s seen a healthy 41.4% of New Orleans’ air yards on the year, a top-five rate in the league. Olave is a low-end WR2 for me, but don’t be shocked if he underwhelms here, despite the terrific opportunity.

There will be opportunities for Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith this week, especially if Arizona continues to slow down opposing top wide receivers. Callaway ran a route on 89% of dropbacks last week, ranking second on the team in targets with seven. Smith, meanwhile, ran a route on 76% of dropbacks. He only saw three targets, but he did find the end zone. Both players will be on the flex radar with Thomas and Landry sidelined this week, but understand that the floor is very, very low.

WR1 Production vs Arizona Cardinals

Tight End

As long as he remains TE-eligible in your league, Taysom Hill has to be considered a borderline top-12 tight end. Yes, he has only played four actual snaps at the tight end position over the last two weeks and his floor is very low, especially since only played 21% of the snaps last week. He isn’t going to provide much of a floor because he doesn’t catch passes, but he has as much touchdown upside as most tight ends because he is averaging 5.2 rushing attempts per game, handling over 40% of the Saints carries from inside the 10-yard line this season. 

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Total: 46.5, BAL – 6.5
Pace: BAL: 29.85 sec/snap (30th), CLE: 28.08 sec/snap (23rd)

What to watch for: J.K. Dobbins (knee) didn’t play much last week. Gus Edwards could make his 2022 debut for the Ravens.

Ravens

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson is coming off three consecutive games with under 20 fantasy points, and he’s failed to score multiple touchdowns in any contest during that stretch. The floor is still stellar, as Jackson is averaging 75 rushing yards and 9.3 carries per game. Perhaps Jackson, who is averaging the sixth-most intended air yards per pass attempt (9.4), is missing Rashod Bateman, who has been stretching the field for the Ravens this season. 16% of Jackson’s passes have traveled 20-plus yards this year, the sixth-highest rate in football, but Jackson is completing just 11% of deep passes over the last two weeks. Of course, he remains an obvious top-five fantasy signal caller, especially against a vulnerable Cleveland secondary that was without Denzel Ward last week, which led to Bailey Zappe throwing for 309 yards and a pair of touchdowns against them. Cleveland is also coughing up the fourth-highest aDOT in the league (8.8 yards). I am not at all worried about Jackson going forward. Start him with confidence.

Running Back

This backfield could be a mess. J.K. Dobbins apparently felt his knee tighten up against the Giants in Week 6, which limited him to just 16-of-59 snaps (27%). Kenyan Drake, meanwhile, logged 58% of the snaps and rushed for 119 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. We’ll see if Dobbins can play this week, but even if he does, it will be difficult to trust him as a fantasy starter, despite how good the matchup is. If we had a clear RB1, I’d love this spot, as the Browns are coughing up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (26.4), while only the Lions are allowing more rushing touchdowns per game to the position (1.3). They are one of seven teams surrendering at least 5.0 yards per carry, but three running backs could see meaningful playing time for the Ravens this week. Keep an eye on this backfield as the week progresses.

Wide Receiver

Rashod Bateman has missed the last two games with a foot injury. During that span, Devin Duvernay has seen a solid 12 targets, though he did next to nothing on Sunday, catching just one pass for 14 yards. If Bateman remains sidelined, there will be plenty of opportunities for Duvernay to be a viable WR3, especially with so many good wide receivers on bye this weekend. He’s run a route on 57-of-71 dropbacks over the last two weeks (80%) and faces a Cleveland secondary that can be beat, especially deep down the field. 

Tight End

Mark Andrews continues to dominate. He caught seven of 11 targets for 106 yards and a score last week, giving him five touchdowns on the season. Andrews has seen a whopping 34.3% of the Ravens targets so far this season, the highest rate among all players in the league. He has also seen 36.7% of the team’s air yards, easily the highest rate at the tight end position. Among qualified tight ends, Andrews ranks first in yards per route run (2.32) and faces a Cleveland team that just allowed 61 yards and a score to Hunter Henry.

Browns

Quarterback

Jacoby Brissett has still yet to reach 18 fantasy points in a game this season. After a solid start, has now tossed just two touchdowns to four interceptions over the last three weeks. Cleveland has been playing from behind over the last three weeks, forcing Brissett to average 38 pass attempts per game during that span. Still, you aren’t starting Brissett unless you are in need of a bye week replacement in superflex formats.

Running Back

For the first time all season, Nick Chubb had a bad game last week, rushing for 56 yards on 12 carries. The Browns were in the worst possible gamescript for Chubb, falling behind by a lot relatively early, which led to the All-Pro running back playing a season-low 44% of the snaps. The Browns are near touchdown underdogs on the road here, but you obviously aren’t sitting Chubb, regardless of the fact that Baltimore’s run defense has been pretty good this season. Just 27.9% of the yardage allowed by the Ravens this year has come on the ground, the sixth-lowest rate in football. Of course, no running back in football has as much explosive-play potential as Chubb, who has run for at least 10 yards on 19% of his carries this season, one of the highest rates in the league.

On the other hand, it was pretty surprising to see Kareem Hunt do next to nothing in a gamescript that you would expect would favor him. He touched the ball a season-low four times for 12 yards, playing just 43% of the snaps (also a season-low). Hunt was only targeted once in the passing game and considering he was averaging nearly 15 touches per game heading into Week 6, it was pretty surprising to see such low usage this week. I’d expect closer to 13-14 touches this week, though it is a tough matchup against a Ravens defense that has been stingy against the run. Hunt is a mid-range flex play this week.

Wide Receiver

It certainly wasn’t the most efficient game from Amari Cooper, who caught just 4-of-12 targets for 44 yards and a touchdown Sunday. However, all I care about is the volume, which hasn’t gone away. Cooper posted a healthy 29% target share, giving him at least a 29% target share in four of six games this season. He has seen double-digit targets in four contests, ranking top-12 in both target share and air yards share through six weeks. We’ll see if Cooper’s home/road splits continue to play a factor, as he is averaging over three fewer fantasy points per game on the road since the start of the 2020 campaign. Baltimore is coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season (33.8) and Cooper’s volume is fantastic right now, keeping him in the low-end WR2 range in this AFC North showdown. 

Meanwhile, if you are desperate for a WR or flex with four teams on bye, you could do worse than Donovan Peoples-Jones. The third-year wideout has now seen a healthy 21 targets over the last three weeks, seeing at least five targets in all three contests. He’s also eclipsed 70 receiving yards in two of his last three games and there will be opportunities for splash plays against a Baltimore defense that can be beat deep down the field, surrendering the fifth-most air yards in the league (799).

Tight End

David Njoku hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3, but the yardage floor has been ideal, posting 89, 73, 88 and 58 receiving yards over his last four games. Njoku currently ranks fourth among all tight ends in yards per route run (1.96), while his 10.2 yards per target ranks top-five. The Browns, for what it’s worth, have been using three tight ends more often since adding Pharaoh Brown to the offense, as Njoku has played his two-lowest percentage of snaps over the last two weeks (85%, 80%). However, Njoku remains a top-10 tight end each week and faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in four-of-six games, allowing the third-most touchdowns per game to the position (0.7).

TE Production vs. Baltimore Ravens

Atlanta Falcons @ Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 47.5, CIN – 6
Pace: CIN: 27.29 sec/snap (11th), ATL: 29.17 sec/snap (26th)

What to watch for: A change in offensive philosophy from the Bengals? And for Atlanta, both A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward left Sunday’s game with injuries.

Bengals

Quarterback

It has been a bit of a roller coaster ride for the Cincinnati offense this year, but Week 6 was one that featured mostly high points. Joe Burrow threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, while adding 25 rushing yards and a fourth score. With constant issues in pass protection, head coach Zac Taylor finally made an adjustment, as the Bengals strictly operated out of the shotgun in this game. All but two of Burrow’s dropbacks came out of shotgun in this game, which was something the Bengals teased against the Ravens in Week 5 and after the game, Burrow said the team needed to build on that. They certainly did and it helped the offense quite a bit, as Burrow is at his best from the shotgun. In 2021, Burrow completed 71.5% of his passes with 28 touchdowns and nearly 9.0 yards per attempt out of the shotgun. And so far in 2022, 10 of Burrow’s 12 touchdown passes have come from the shotgun formation, so this clearly looks like something the Bengals will continue to utilize. Burrow will be a no-doubt top-six quarterback ahead of a home matchup with a Falcons defense that is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (19.6), while also coughing up 2.25 points per drive, the eighth most in football.

Running Back

The Bengals abandoned the run against the Saints, as Joe Mixon carried the ball just eight times, while finishing the game with just 12 total touches. He saved his day with a touchdown reception where the Bengals went empty and Mixon lined up out wide. An uptick in shotgun formation should help Mixon, too, who is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry under center this season, compared to 4.0 yards per rush from out of the shotgun. And if teams continue to play a ton of Cover-2 against the Bengals, Mixon should see plenty of light boxes. I’d be stunned if Mixon didn’t return to seeing 18-23 touches against the Falcons this week and when the Bengals get in close, he is still clearly the top option, as his 10 carries from inside the 5-yard line lead the league. We have also seen a solid receiving floor from Mixon, who has caught at least three passes in every game this season.

Wide Receiver

After a few underwhelming games in a row, Ja’Marr Chase exploded to the tune of seven receptions, 132 yards and two scores against the Saints Sunday. Of course, New Orleans being without Marshon Lattimore definitely helped, but the Bengals did a good job of getting Chase different looks, as Cincinnati finally made some strong adjustments. He’s an obvious must-start wide receiver and I have zero clue how the Falcons are supposed to stop the league’s top wide receiver room without A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward. Even if Terrell plays, he has struggled this season, surrendering a league-leading seven touchdowns in coverage already. We have seen the Bengals get Chase involved in the screen game as of late, which is notable for this matchup since the Falcons really struggled to defend San Francisco’s screen game last week.

There were some concerns whether Tee Higgins (ankle) would be limited in Week 6, especially after playing just 10 snaps last Sunday night. However, Higgins was active and logged 87% of the snaps, while tying Chase for the team-lead in targets (10). As long as he doesn’t suffer any setbacks during the week, Higgins will come in as an easy top-15 wide receiver, especially against a potentially depleted Atlanta secondary. Finally, Tyler Boyd had a solid Week 6 outing, catching six passes for 66 yards against the Saints. His ceiling remains capped when Chase and Higgins are active, but he does rank 11th among all wideouts in routes run (233). 

Source: NFL Next Gen Stats

Tight End

While Hayden Hurst didn’t build off his strong Week 5 outing (3-21-0), he still remains plenty involved. The veteran is fourth among all tight ends in routes, while running a route on a healthy 75% of Cincinnati’s dropbacks this season. This is a good matchup for Hurst, facing an Atlanta team that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (13.72), while also coughing up the second-most receptions (7.0), third-most receiving yards (73.0) and second-most targets (9.3) per game to the position. For the second time this season, Hurst will have a chance at revenge, facing his former team.

Falcons

Quarterback

Despite only attempting 14 passes, Marcus Mariota scored 24 fantasy points Sunday. He threw two touchdowns, adding 50 rushing yards and a score on six attempts. It is tough to expect that type of efficiency going forward, especially when the volume is so low. Mariota hasn’t reached 30 pass attempts in a game since Week 1, while averaging just 22.8 pass attempts per game on the year. The Falcons continue to establish the living hell out of the run, sporting the league’s highest rush rate in neutral gamescripts (57.6%). Atlanta is also running the football 49.3% of the time when trailing by at least eight points, the fourth-highest rate in football. It is still tough to project Mariota as a strong fantasy starter this week, especially since the Bengals are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers on the year.

Running Back

The Falcons continue to use multiple running backs. In the two games without Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta has given plenty of snaps to Tyler Allgeier, Caleb Huntley and Avery Williams. Allgeier has played 59% and 57% of the snaps during that span, while Caleb Huntley has played 24% and 34%. Allgeier has played most of the third-down snaps, but the Falcons don’t target running backs in the passing game, so I’m not entirely sure how valuable that actually is. Running backs have accounted for just 12.1% of Atlanta’s targets on the year, the fourth-lowest rate in football. Huntley, meanwhile, has been the goal line running back and last week, he carried the ball 16 times, compared to 15 carries for Allgeier. If the Bengals get ahead in this game, it would in theory benefit Allgeier, but Avery Williams has been getting plenty of run in two-minute situations. If choosing a running back from Atlanta to start, it would be Allgeier but I really don’t feel great about it.

Wide Receiver

The target share remains massive for Drake London. The issue, however, is the fact that the Falcons simply aren’t throwing the ball enough, resulting in London averaging just six targets per game over his last three games. London is still sporting a 33% target share, which is the third-highest rate in football, and it was encouraging to see him run a route on 100% of dropbacks Sunday, which was up from his 67% route participation from Week 5. It would be fun to see Atlanta fall behind and have to throw 30-35 times because if that happens, London easily sees double-digit targets. But they have been playing well enough and staying in games, limiting Mariota to minimal passing volume. Until that changes, London should be viewed as an upside WR3. 

Tight End

After a one-game absence, Kyle Pitts returned to the lineup Sunday and while he scored a touchdown, there are still reasons to be underwhelmed. Pitts was second among Atlanta’s three tight ends in snaps, while he continues to see limited playing time when the Falcons run three wide receivers. He was also only targeted three times but unless you have a second top-10 tight end on your roster, it is going to be tough to sit Pitts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

Total: 40.5, TB – 11
Pace: CAR: 25.76 sec/snap (1st), TB: 26.8 sec/snap (5th)

What to watch for: Robbie Anderson was traded to Arizona. Jacob Eason could start at QB for the Panthers this week.

Panthers

Quarterback

With Baker Mayfield out with an ankle injury, Carolina turned to PJ Walker last week. Walker threw for just 60 yards on 16 attempts, sporting an unbelievably low 0.5-yard aDOT. That is almost impossible for a quarterback to do, but 10 of Walker’s 16 attempts and eight of his 10 completions came behind the line of scrimmage against the Rams. Walker did leave the game in the second half, forcing Jacob Eason into the game. Even with four teams on bye, you should not be starting any quarterbacks from the Panthers.

Running Back

Probably the only player you can start in fantasy from Carolina, Christian McCaffrey continues to see a ton of work in the passing game. Since Week 4, McCaffrey is averaging an impressive 9.6 targets per game and during that stretch, McCaffrey is sporting a 29.9% target share, which not only easily leads all running backs, but ranks 10th in the NFL during that span. As expected, this entire Carolina offense is running through CMC right now. Continue to start him and we’ll see if he actually gets traded in the coming weeks.

Friday update: With Christian McCaffrey traded to San Francisco, D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard will form an uninspiring committee in Carolina. Foreman is the preferred play but in arguably the worst offense in football, it is difficult to consider him anything more than a desperation flex play.

Wide Receiver

Three catches for seven yards. DJ Moore’s nightmare season continued Sunday — if Moore is going to get anything going here in 2022, his best chances might come via trade. He hasn’t reached 60 yards in a game yet this season and with Robbie Anderson now in Arizona, the target share should remain solidified but just how valuable are the targets he is seeing right now? Just 65.9% of his targets this year have been deemed catchable, the 10th-lowest rate among qualified wide receivers. He is a WR4 at best at the moment.

Tight End

Hard pass.

Buccaneers

Quarterback

How Tampa Bay lost to a depleted Pittsburgh team, I don’t know. I was expecting a huge game from Tom Brady and this passing attack, and it just didn’t happen, as Brady completed just 25-of-40 passes for 243 yards and one touchdown. The overall passing volume has been strong for Brady over the last three weeks, as he’s averaging 48 pass attempts per game, however, the Bucs reverted back to a run-first mindset last week. Brady has been a tad unlucky as of late, as Chris Godwin was tackled at the 1-yard line twice over the last two weeks, but this offense simply needs to be better, as they rank 20th in red zone conversion rate (50%). It is difficult to be overly confident in Brady right now, while a matchup against Carolina isn’t anything special, as they rank 12th against quarterbacks. The Panthers are sporting the ninth-lowest pressure rate (17.8%) on the year, which is good for Brady, who is having to get rid of the ball incredibly fast, while Carolina’s offense seems unlikely to sustain drives. Brady is a low-end QB1 here.

Running Back

Leonard Fournette logged 82% of the snaps Sunday, the highest mark he’s seen since Week 3. The volume remains great, as Fournette touched the ball 27 times for about 100 total yards and a touchdown. Fournette has scored every Tampa Bay touchdown over the last two weeks, as Brady continues to target the running backs a ton out of the backfield. Fournette has seen at least six targets in each of his last four games, as running backs have accounted for about 23% of the team’s targets this season. The Panthers are coughing up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this year (23.0) so look for Fournette to remain productive Sunday.

And while you aren’t starting him, please make sure Rachaad White isn’t available in any leagues. Despite playing around 30-40% of the snaps over the past three weeks, White has seen 13 targets, while averaging nearly eight touches per game during that span. 

Wide Receiver

With Tampa Bay comfortably ahead most of Week 5, the Bucs limited Chris Godwin’s playing time, as he logged just 52% of snaps and ran a route on 51% of dropbacks. However, his involvement skyrocketed this past weekend, as Godwin played 88% of the snaps against Pittsburgh, while running a route on 93% of dropbacks. He led the team with 12 targets, converting six of them for 95 yards. It was great to see, and Godwin can safely be ranked as a top-15 wide receiver moving forward, especially if Tampa Bay gets back to their pass-happy ways. Carolina’s secondary is a little banged up at the moment, as Jaycee Horn didn’t play on Sunday, while Donte Jackson left with an ankle injury. Against a zone-heavy Panthers defense, Godwin should find the soft spots, just as he always does.

Mike Evans had a quiet game, catching all four of his targets for just 42 yards. It just felt like a weird game from Tampa Bay and while you don’t love the fact that Evans was only targeted four times, better days are obviously ahead, especially if Horn remains sidelined for the Panthers, as he’s been very good this season, surrendering just a 39% catch rate, 23.8 passer rating and zero touchdowns in coverage through six weeks.

Tight End

Cameron Brate left last week’s game with a neck injury and did not return. If he is unable to play this week, rookie tight end Cade Otton would become an outstanding streaming option. When Brate missed Week 5, Otton drew the start and saw very healthy usage, seeing seven targets, logging 94% of the snaps and running a route on 87% of dropbacks. I’ll be streaming Otton in multiple leagues this weekend if he starts for Tampa Bay.

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

Total: 48, DAL – 7
Pace: DAL: 27.57 sec/snap (16th), DET: 27.7 sec/snap (18th)

What to watch for: Dak Prescott is expected to return to the lineup for the Cowboys. D’Andre Swift should be back for the Lions.

Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott is expected to make his return, and what a great week to get back in both the Cowboys’ (and fantasy managers’) lineups. Dallas hosts one of the league’s worst defenses in Detroit, who are coughing up 22.9 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers, the second most in the league, while also allowing the most points (2.73), ninth-most plays (6.2) and second-most yards (38.9) per drive. Opposing offenses are scoring points on 47.3% of drives against the Lions so far this season, easily the highest rate in the NFL. When we last saw Prescott in Week 1, he definitely didn’t look great, but I have zero hesitation starting Prescott this week, especially with Michael Gallup and (hopefully) Dalton Schultz back in the lineup.

Running Back

Despite facing a stout Eagles defensive front last week, Ezekiel Elliott ran well, rushing for 81 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. He would have flirted with 20 carries if Cooper Rush didn’t throw three interceptions, taking drives away from Elliott. Elliott logged 60% of the snaps and now gets one of the best matchups in all of fantasy, facing a Lions team that is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (26.7), while only the Chargers and Giants are allowing more yards per carry than Detroit (5.5). And according to Football Outsiders, the Lions are allowing the second-most 2nd level yards, which are yards where a running back earns 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage. You would love to see more usage in the passing game, as Elliott has just six receptions and eight targets on the year, but he can be trusted as an RB2 as a home favorite in an elite matchup.

Tony Pollard, meanwhile, remains a viable flex play that is likely reliant on an explosive play. The 13 touches he saw last week were his most in a game since Week 3, and even if he drops to 10-12 touches, given his efficiency and the Lions issues stopping the run, that is enough to warrant flex consideration here. Detroit is allowing 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing backfields, the most in football, while multiple running backs have found the end zone in two games against the Lions this season. You are often relying on the huge play from Pollard, but it could easily come in this game, as 16.3% of the runs against the Lions this season have gained at least 10 yards, the highest rate in the league. 

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb continues to see a ton of targets and that isn’t going to change with Prescott under center. He was targeted 10 more times Sunday night, giving him 60 targets on the year, while his 33.3% target share is the second-highest mark in all of football. Lamb has seen double-digit targets in four of six games, while his season-low for targets in a game this season is eight. The Cowboys moved Lamb into the slot 72% of the time last week, likely in an attempt to get him away from Darius Slay on the outside. But Lamb has still been in the slot 62% of the time in the three weeks since Michael Gallup has been back in the lineup and if he continues to play a ton from the slot, he could go crazy here. The Lions have allowed plenty of production to wide receivers out of the slot this season, surrendering slot touchdowns to Jahan Dotson, K.J. Osborn and Jakobi Meyers since Week 3. Lamb will see plenty of coverage from 2021 UDFA, A.J. Parker, who has 4.60 speed. 

With elite wide receivers on bye, Michael Gallup enters the WR3 discussion this week. He played a season-high 76% of the snaps last week, while running a route on 82% of dropbacks. Gallup will see the toughest individual matchup, however, as he’ll see plenty of man coverage from Jeff Okudah, who has played great so far this season. Okudah has shadowed four times this season, while not moving into the slot. But the opportunity will be solid for Gallup and the Cowboys are expected to score plenty of points here.

Tight End

With Dalton Schultz (PCL) sidelined last week, Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot once again split snaps at tight end, however, it was Ferguson who was productive, hauling in 4-of-6 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown. Hendershot ran 23 routes to Ferguson’s 15, while the tight ends combined for 11 targets. With Prescott back, we could see Schultz return to his top-seven status among fantasy tight ends, though it surely isn’t a guarantee. If he remains sidelined, you could take a shot on Ferguson or Hendershot, though there are likely safer streaming options available.

Lions

Quarterback

After a bye week, Jared Goff and the Lions offense are hopefully healthy, which was not the case heading into the bye. Goff has posted strong numbers this season, throwing for 1,355 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions, while ranking as the QB6 in points per game (19.7). Detroit’s awful defense has led to Goff averaging a healthy 37.2 pass attempts per game, something that is unlikely to change going forward. This is definitely a tough matchup for Goff, facing a stout Dallas defense that is generating pressure at the league’s highest rate (31.2%), while coughing up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (13.3). Goff has been about league average when under pressure this season and with the Lions likely to be playing from behind again, the passing volume should be enough to mask a tough matchup, which keeps him in the QB2 discussion.

Running Back

D’Andre Swift hasn’t played since Week 3, but the hope is the bye week gave him the time to get healthy. I expect him to return to the lineup but what will his role look like? In Week 1, Swift saw 18 touches and logged 67% of the snaps but dealt with an ankle injury after the game. In Weeks 2-3, the Lions limited Swift, as he played 51% and 41% of the snaps, averaging just 8.5 touches per game during those two weeks. Assuming Swift is active, I don’t think he sees 7-10 touches but I’m also not sure he gets up to 18, especially given how well Jamaal Williams has been playing. Of course, as we saw in Week 2, Swift is too talented of a player to sit, as he finished the game with 87 total yards and a touchdown on just seven touches. The efficiency has been off the charts for Swift so far — he’s averaging a league-leading 8.8 yards per touch, rushing for 15-plus yards on four of his 27 carries. You are starting Swift if he’s active, but I’ll be ranking him as an RB2.

You can also still start Jamaal Williams, however as a flex, not a borderline RB1. Williams still ranks second in the NFL in carries from inside the five-yard line (9), while handling 100% of the Lions carries from that area of the field. And even in the three games he has played alongside Swift, Williams was averaging a healthy 15.6 touches per game. I’d pencil Williams in for 12-14 touches this week with upside for more if Swift still isn’t quite 100% healthy. 

Wide Receiver

Week 7 will be tough but the best part about it is the fact that Amon-Ra St. Brown is back in our lives. St. Brown missed Week 4 with an ankle injury and then was limited in Week 5 before the bye, playing just 32% of the snaps and running a route on just 16-of-39 dropbacks (41%). I’d expect him to be at full strength this week but keep an eye on practice reports out of Detroit. Assuming he is back, St. Brown is back to being a must-start fantasy wide receiver. He’ll see coverage out of the slot from Jourdan Lewis, who has allowed an 84% catch rate so far this season. The volume should remain elite for St. Brown, who is averaging 11.1 targets per game over his last nine full games.

Josh Reynolds has played great for the Lions this year, especially lately. Since Week 3, Reynolds is averaging an impressive 9.3 targets, 6.3 receptions, 89.7 receiving yards and 17.3 fantasy points per game. Of course, a lot of that production came with St. Brown either out or limited, while Swift and D.J. Chark have also been inactive. These numbers are obviously coming back down but Reynolds could still see a handful of targets in an offense that is constantly chasing points.

Tight End

After an historic Week 4 performance, T.J. Hockenson had a polar opposite game in Week 5 against New England, catching just one pass for six yards. With St. Brown limited and Chark and Swift out, it looked like the Patriots game planned to stop Hockenson and it worked. Hockenson has been very up-and-down since the second half of the 2021 season but there simply aren’t enough good fantasy tight ends out there to consider anything but starting him each week. The matchup is tough, as Dallas is surrendering the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (6.05), but Hockenson remains a back-end TE1 for me.

New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 42.5, JAC -3
Pace: JAC: 26.86 sec/snap (7th), NYG: 27.58 sec/snap (17th)

What to watch for: Marvin Jones (hamstring) did not play Sunday for Jacksonville. The Jags have also been without DT Folorunso Fatukasi since Week 2.

Jaguars

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence had a really strange game Sunday. He only attempted 22 passes but completed 20 of them for 165 yards and a score, adding two rushing touchdowns. The Jaguars leaned on the run during this game, but Lawrence was very efficient and did not turn the football over for the first time in two weeks. Lawrence has no doubt been better than he was during his rookie season, but his fantasy numbers have been a bit all over the place. He faces the Giants surging defense this week, a unit that has held Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson to just 18.0 and 16.8 fantasy points over the last two weeks. Against the blitz this season, Lawrence ranks 12th in completion rate (65.3%) but 20th in yards per attempt (6.3), though he does rank fourth in adjusted completion rate against the blitz (82.2%). And as we know, Wink Martindale, like coach Bill Yoast from Remember the Titans, will “blitz all night long.” No team in the NFL is blitzing more often than the Giants this season (36%), while sporting the seventh-lowest yards per attempt against (6.6). Lawrence is a mid-range QB2.

Running Back

It feels like Travis Etienne is making multiple plays every single week. That continued in Week 6, as Etienne posted two runs of 15-plus yards against the Colts, ultimately finishing the day with 86 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards on 12 touches. Etienne’s efficiency has been stellar, averaging 5.6 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per touch, the second-best mark in football. He started the game for Jacksonville Sunday and played 46% of the snaps, now outsnapping James Robinson in each of the last three weeks. Etienne is also eluding defenders, as he’s forced a missed tackle on 24% of his rushes so far this season, a top-13 rate in the league. Over the last two weeks, Etienne is averaging 12.5 touches per game, which makes him a strong flex play but if the usage continues to climb, Etienne will push for top-15 status among running backs. He’s a really strong play this week against a vulnerable Giants run defense that just allowed 119 yards and a touchdown on just 10 carries to Kenyan Drake. And on the season, the Giants are coughing up 5.6 yards per rush (2nd-worst), while just 11% of the runs against this team have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, tied for the lowest rate in football. Etienne is a top-20 running back for Week 7.

James Robinson has been boom-or-bust this season. He either rips off a long run or struggles to get past the line of scrimmage, while it is clear he lacks the same burst that Etienne has. Robinson has been out-snapped by Etienne in each of the last three weeks and we actually saw an uptick in goal-line work for Etienne last week, including a wildcat carry from inside the 5-yard line. Robinson still leads the team with five carries from inside the five-yard line (10th in NFL) but if Etienne gets more and more work from in close, Robinson will fall from RB2 to flex status. This is a very good matchup for both Jacksonville running backs but because it looks like a split right now, Robinson is a solid flex play.

Jaguars RB Usage Since Week 4

Travis Etienne

James Robinson

Wide Receiver

Christian Kirk’s usage remains very interesting on a weekly basis. After the Jaguars talked about having to get Kirk more targets, he only saw five targets, though the team did attempt just 22 passes. Kirk saved his day with a touchdown, but we continue to see him play more on the perimeter any time one of the Jaguars outside wide receivers is out. Back in Week 4, Zay Jones was inactive and as a result, Kirk’s slot rate dropped to 48.1%. But with Jones back in Week 5, it climbed back up to 84%, only to fall back down to 66% with Marvin Jones inactive this past weekend. Kirk has been highly efficient from the slot this season, ranking 14th in yards after the catch per reception (6.9) and 12th in yards per catch (16.6) from the slot. He’s also more productive against zone coverage, ranking 22nd in yards per route run against zone (2.07) but just 66th against man coverage (1.09). The Giants play more man than zone and if Marvin Jones can’t play, I think it actually makes this matchup even worse for Kirk, as he’ll play on the perimeter more against a New York team that has done well against outside receivers this season. 

Through six weeks, Zay Jones leads the Jaguars in receptions (27), despite missing a game. Over his last three games, Jones is averaging a healthy eight targets per game, while seeing at least targets in all but one game this season. Like I said, the Giants have done a great job against perimeter wide receivers, but Jones does move into the slot a little bit, lining up inside 33% of the time. 

Tight End

The production hasn’t been unbelievable but Evan Engram has seen 16 targets over the last two weeks, hauling in 11 passes during that span. He’s yet to find the end zone but continues to dominate the playing time for the Jaguars, while ranking ninth among all tight ends in routes run (179). Engram will face his former team this week, a Giants defense that is coughing up the 12th-most fantasy points (11.1), third-most receptions (6.0) and fifth-most yards per game (61.8) to opposing tight ends. Engram is a borderline TE1.

Giants

Quarterback

Daniel Jones is coming off his first multiple passing touchdown game since Week 1, though he only threw for 173 yards. It was his fourth game with less than 200 passing yards this season, as the Giants continue to rely on the rushing attack. The rushing production came down this past weekend, though Jones is still averaging 7.8 rush attempts and 39.3 rushing yards per game on the year, both of which rank top-five among quarterbacks so far this season. The rushing has helped Jones average a healthy 0.47 fantasy points per dropback, which ranks 13th in the league, so the potential is there, but the ceiling won’t be realized in a run-first offense that also features arguably the worst group of wideouts in the league. Jacksonville was just destroyed through the air by Matt Ryan last week, though Jones isn’t going to attempt nearly as many passes.

Running Back

Saquon Barkley is one of the best players in the NFL and he scores a lot of fantasy points. You should start him. Barkley rushed for 83 yards on 22 carries last week, though he did score a touchdown and added three receptions. He’s the heartbeat of this Giants offense, averaging just over 23 touches per game. Jacksonville’s run defense started the season red hot but since losing defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi, the Jaguars have struggled to stop the run. In fact, over the last three weeks, Jacksonville is coughing up 124 rushing yards per game, as well as allowing 2.0 rushing touchdowns per game, the third-most in football. Jacksonville is now coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the year (23.0), making this a potential smash spot for Barkley.

RBs vs. Jacksonville Since Week 4

Wide Receiver

I am still not comfortable starting a receiver from the Giants but that could change very soon. Rookie wideout Wan’Dale Robinson finally returned to the lineup last week, his first appearance since Week 1. Robinson caught three-of-four targets for 37 yards and a touchdown, which is even more impressive when you consider that he only played 15 snaps and ran just 11 routes. The playing time is obviously going to rise and with Kadarius Toney injured/on the trade block, Robinson is likely going to be this team’s WR1 for the rest of the season. Make sure Robinson isn’t available in any of your leagues.

Tight End

Rookie tight ends hardly do anything but apparently Daniel Bellinger didn’t get the memo. Not that he is dominating or anything, but Bellinger caught five passes for 38 yards and a touchdown last week, while his playing time has climbed every single week this season: 48%, 58%, 60%, 60%, 74%, 94%. He ran a route on almost 82% of dropbacks and is now firmly on the streaming radar, with upside for more going forward. Bellinger, as a first-year tight end, is arguably the top target in this Giants passing game right now. That simply cannot be ignored.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Total: 42.5, TEN – 2.5
Pace: TEN: 30.5 sec/snap (30th), IND: 26.1 sec/snap (3rd)

What to watch for: Jonathan Taylor has missed the last two games but could return this week. Deon Jackson, who was terrific last week, left the game late with a quad injury.

Titans

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill remains a low-ceiling streaming quarterback for fantasy, who will rarely crush your lineups, but won’t be the reason you win either. In Tennessee’s run-first offense, Tannehill is averaging just 25.2 pass attempts per game, while he’s failed to reach the 200-yard mark in three of five games this season. When these teams last met in Week 4, Tannehill was efficient, completing 17-of-21 passes for 137 yards and a pair of touchdowns and on the season, the Colts are allowing a 68.1% completion rate, the seventh-highest mark in the league. They have also been an uninspiring red zone defense, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 64.7% of red zone trips this season, the eighth-worst rate in football. If you have to replace Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Kirk Cousins this week, Tannehill is fine, just don’t expect a massive ceiling.

Running Back

You are starting Derrick Henry. The Colts run defense has been mostly strong this season, but they did just allow multiple long runs to the Jaguars last week. Henry faced this Colts defense back in Week 5 and rushed for 114 yards and a score on 22 carries. The usage in the passing game has been solid for Henry, who is averaging 4.3 targets and 3.3 receptions per game over his last three outings. And while Henry isn’t suddenly Austin Ekeler or Christian McCaffrey in the passing game, adding three receptions per game to his totals will make a huge difference. The Colts, meanwhile, rank bottom five in receptions, receiving yards and targets per game to opposing running backs.

Wide Receiver

Robert Woods will continue to lead the Titans in targets, especially with Treylon Burks sidelined. Woods has exactly four receptions in each of his last four games, though he has been held under 40 receiving yards in three of those contests. Like Tannehill, there isn’t much of a ceiling to be had here, especially against Stephon Gilmore, who has been playing well this season. Woods is a high-end WR4.

Tight End

Stay away.

Colts

Quarterback

Well then, Matt Ryan. Where the hell did that come from?

The veteran signal caller, who really struggled in Week 5, torched the Jaguars in Week 6 to the tune of 389 yards and three touchdowns. Indianapolis’ offensive philosophy really changed this past week, as the Colts went extremely pass-heavy, throwing the football a whopping 78.6% of the time in neutral situations. They also picked up the pace, averaging a league-high 20.7 seconds per snap in Week 6, while operating out of the no-huddle an insane 49% of the time. For reference, the Cardinals currently lead the league in no-huddle rate at 41.9%. Considering the Colts won and Ryan played well, it’ll be interesting if they continue to play fast and throw more, though if Jonathan Taylor is back, I’d expect they get back to at least trying to run the football. Regardless, Ryan is a borderline top-12 quarterback this week, facing a weak Tennessee secondary that allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (21.8). They have also been a pass funnel, as 73.5% of the yardage against the Titans this season has come through the air, the second-highest rate in football, while 85.7% of the touchdowns scored against this defense have been via the pass, the highest rate in the league.

Running Back

With both Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines out last week, Deon Jackson got the start at running back and was fantastic. He rushed for 42 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, while adding 10 receptions for 79 yards, finishing as the RB1 on the week. He played 66% of the snaps and handled 22-of-28 running back touches, all while leaving the game in the fourth quarter with a quad injury. We’ll see if Taylor or Hines can return to the lineup this week, as well as Jackson. If Jackson is somehow the starting running back for the Colts again, he’s a top-24 running back. Meanwhile, if Taylor is back, you are obviously starting him.

Wide Receiver

What a game from Michael Pittman last week, who caught 13-of-16 targets for 134 yards against the Jaguars. He was busy all game, consistently picking up first downs over the middle of the field. One of the reasons I was so high on Pittman entering the season with a potential change in usage. In 2021 alongside Carson Wentz, Pittman saw 29 contested targets, the eighth most in football. Nearly 23% of his total targets were contested, as Wentz threw a lot of 50-50 balls and often missed the open player in the middle of the field. Meanwhile, Wentz’s 27 interception-worthy passes from last year were tied for the seventh-most in football. So far this season, however, Pittman’s 6.0 yards before the catch per reception ranks 77th in all of football, down from his mark of 8.3 from a season ago. His aDOT is also down from 10.3 yards in 2021 to 6.7 so far this season. Pittman remains a must-start wideout, especially against a Tennessee defense that allows the most yards per target to opposing wide receivers this season, as well as the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. He’ll draw coverage from Kristian Fulton, who is allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season. 

Alec Pierce also remains productive, hauling in a game-winning 32-yard touchdown last week. He was targeted seven times, giving him at least six targets in each of the past three games. Pierce has been the deep target in this passing game, ranking sixth in yards before the catch per reception (13.7). He has an upside flex play/WR3 against a Titans defense that is allowing the second-most yards per pass attempt (8.4) and Pierce already recorded 80 yards against Tennessee this season. 

Tight End

The Colts continue to use all three tight ends, with Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson and Jelani Woods all playing at least 25 snaps last week. All three players ran at least 15 pass routes, too. This would be an awesome situation for fantasy if just one tight end was getting all of the work but that simply isn’t the case, making it extremely risky to start Alie-Cox, Granson or Woods.

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders

Total: 41.5, GB – 5.5
Pace: WAS: 28.03 sec/snap (21st), GB: 29.52 sec/snap (27th)

What to watch for: Carson Wentz will miss at least this week. Taylor Heinicke will start at QB. 

Commanders

Quarterback 

With Carson Wentz out, the Commanders will turn to Taylor Heinicke once again, who has plenty of experience starting games for this Washington offense. Heinicke averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game last season, which was actually better than I initially thought. Green Bay’s defense is not playing up to par right now, but they have still been above average against the pass. If you are struggling with bye weeks in a superflex format, Heinicke should be on your radar. Otherwise, feel free to look elsewhere at quarterback this weekend.

Running Back

In his second career game last Thursday night, Brian Robinson got the start at running back. He didn’t look amazing but got the job done, rushing for 60 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Robinson logged 47% of the snaps on offense, playing all of the goal-line snaps. J.D. McKissic, meanwhile, unsurprisingly played every single snap in the two-minute drill, while Robinson played zero third-down snaps, which will certainly limit his upside a bit. Robinson should still be in line for double-digit carries, and if Washington can keep this game close, he’ll have the potential to reach 17-20 again, while seeing all the short-yardage work. I’m not quite ready to put him in the RB2 range just yet but Robinson is a fine flex play against a struggling Green Bay run defense.

If you are forced to start Antonio Gibson this week, good luck. With Robinson as the starter, Gibson touched the ball eight times and played a season-low 26% of the snaps, while also playing on kickoff return. 

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin had a quiet game last week, which is understandable considering Washington scored just 12 points and Wentz threw for 99 yards. McLaurin finished the game with 41 receiving yards on four targets and now he’ll be playing alongside Heinicke, who has proven to have issues getting him the ball deep down the field. According to PFF, Heinicke posted just a 33% on-target rate on deep passes last season, well below the league average mark of 42%. He still took plenty of shots, as 12.1% of his passes traveled 20 yards or more, a top-13 rate in the league, but his arm strength is severely lacking. In 17 career games alongside Heinicke, McLaurin is averaging a respectable 63.3 receiving yards and 12.9 PPR points per game. That is also on eight targets per game, which McLaurin simply isn’t seeing right now, averaging a career-low 6.1 targets per game. He’s a WR3 ahead of a date with the Packers.

Curtis Samuel led the Commanders in targets again Thursday, the sixth straight game where he’s accomplished that feat. Unfortunately, he left a ton of production on the field, as he dropped a 40-yard touchdown, followed by a second drop a few plays later. It should have been a very good game from Samuel, though his usage and involvement remain very strong. Samuel remains a strong WR3 that should return to providing a solid floor in PPR leagues, though it is worth noting that Washington seems to want to try establishing the run a bit more with Robinson in the backfield.

Tight End

Logan Thomas has missed the last two games with a calf injury. With Thomas sidelined last week, rookie Cole Turner was the featured tight end, largely because John Bates hurt his hamstring in warmups. If Bates plays this week, Washington will likely go back to splitting the snaps and routes between him and Turner.

Packers

Quarterback

Green Bay’s offense is broken right now. They have scored just 10 points over their last six quarters, and because their offense is pretty predictable right now, they aren’t all that difficult to defend. Aaron Rodgers has mostly provided a solid floor, throwing multiple touchdown passes in four of his last five games, though he’s yet to reach 18 fantasy points in a game this season. This should be a good matchup for Rodgers, facing a Washington pass defense that is allowing a 6.3% passing touchdown rate this season, the second-worst rate in football, while no team is allowing a higher aDOT (9.7 yards). The Commanders are also allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (19.4), so Rodgers can be trusted as a borderline QB1, though you likely don’t feel 100% confident about it.

Running Back

The running backs in this offense are averaging 8.3 combined fantasy points per game over the last four weeks, and Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon haven’t found the end zone since Week 2. It has been a tough stretch for this backfield, as the usage has been maddening. I think most would agree that Jones needs more touches, including Aaron Rodgers, who said as much this week. Jones is currently averaging 14.5 touches per game and the last time there was a week where Green Bay talked about getting him the ball more, he had 18 touches against the Bears. The lack of usage in the passing game has been shocking, too, as Jones is averaging 2.8 receptions per game, despite Green Bay missing Davante Adams. I’m still starting Jones as a mid-range RB2, and I think he’s a solid buy-low candidate, but it’s obviously been frustrating.

Dillon, meanwhile, hasn’t been very effective this season, averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry, while forcing just six missed tackles on 73 attempts. Green Bay has rarely been inside the 5-yard line over the last few weeks and when they have gotten down there, they have abandoned the running game. This feels like a game where the Packers get back to utilizing their running backs, but Dillon can’t be started as anything more than a low-end RB2 at the moment.

Wide Receiver

While Green Bay’s offense has struggled lately, it hasn’t stopped Allen Lazard, who has now found the end zone in four of five games this season. Lazard has seen at least eight targets in each of the last three games and is approaching must-start territory, especially with four teams with tremendous wide receivers on bye. The Commanders are surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers on the season and there is no question who the WR1 in Green Bay is right now. Lazard ranks fifth in the league in deep targets (12), while averaging 2.9 air yards per route run, which ranks 18th among all wideouts with at least 50 routes run this season.

Romeo Doubs has struggled over the last two weeks, catching a combined seven passes for 50 yards during that span. He’s still seen a healthy 14 looks in those two games, while running a route on 83-of-86 dropbacks (97%). I like Doubs as an upside WR3 here, facing a vulnerable Washington secondary that allows the highest aDOT in football. Doubs will see coverage from Kendall Fuller, who is allowing 0.33 fantasy points per coverage route on the year.

Tight End

Robert Tonyan put together his best day of the season Sunday, hauling in 10-of-12 targets for 90 yards. He played a season-high 63% of the snaps, while running a route on 76% of dropbacks. Green Bay was without Sammy Watkins and Christian Watson for this game, while Randall Cobb left with an ankle injury early in the second half. However, Cobb is going to miss some time, while Watkins won’t be back yet, opening up an extended opportunity for Tonyan to soak up targets from Rodgers in the intermediate parts of the field. Pick him up and start him if you are hurting at tight end.

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos

Total: 38.5, DEN -1
Pace: DEN: 28.27 sec/snap (24th), NYJ: 27.28 sec/snap (10th)

What to watch for: Russell Wilson is now dealing with a hamstring injury and is day-to-day. Melvin Gordon was seemingly benched last week.

Broncos

Quarterback

For a split second, it appeared Russell Wilson was going to turn things around. After two drives Monday, Wilson had 110 yards and a touchdown, and it looked like we were on our way. However, things fell apart in the second half, as Wilson threw for 15 yards in the second half. Now dealing with a hamstring injury, it is possible that Wilson misses this game, though he is listed as day-to-day and if I had to guess, I’d say he plays. Of course, that doesn’t mean he should be starting for your fantasy teams right now, especially against a Jets defense that is building a ton of momentum right now. 

Running Back

You could tell early that Melvin Gordon wasn’t going to play a lot in Week 6. He split work with Mike Boone on the opening drive and then Latavius Murray started the second drive. Gordon ultimately finished the game logging 16% of the snaps, touching the ball three times for eight yards. Head coach Nathaniel Hackett recently stated that Gordon will start at running back against the Jets but what does that even mean? He could simply “start” by playing the opening snap and then rotating with Boone and Murray. Right now, I’d project Murray to get the most carries in this backfield but if I can help it, I’d avoid Gordon and Murray. This offense isn’t sustaining drives in order for these running backs to see touchdown opportunities on limited carries, as the Broncos are averaging the second-fewest points (1.32) and eighth-fewest yards (28.6) per drive, while only converting 20% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, easily the lowest rate in football.

Wide Receiver

With Denver’s offense self-destructing last week, Courtland Sutton had his worst game of the season, catching just two passes for 14 yards. He’s still been the clear WR1 for this team over the course of the season, while seeing a healthy 33% of the team’s air yards. Sutton has also still recorded at least 70 receiving yards in four of six contests, though this is a tough matchup against the Jets, who rank top-12 against wide receivers this season. The duo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed has been outstanding, as Reed is allowing just 0.11 fantasy points per coverage route and a 52% catch rate in coverage. Gardner, meanwhile, is allowing 0.14 fantasy points per coverage route and a 43% catch rate. He is allowing a reception every 16.4 coverage snaps, a top-10 rate in football. This is a tough spot for Sutton but he still projects as a WR2 as long as Wilson is under center.

Jerry Jeudy caught three passes for 54 yards last week, seeing a team-high seven targets. His ceiling has been capped a bit this season, as Wilson just has had zero desire or ability to throw the ball in the middle of the field, which impacts Jeudy, who is lining up out of the slot nearly 71% of the time this season. He’s a mid-range WR3 for me.

Tight End

Greg Dulcich made his NFL debut last week, which led to Albert Okwuegbunam being a healthy scratch. Dulcich caught a 39-yard touchdown on the second drive of the game and seemingly did nothing else, but he played 71% of the offensive snaps, while running a route on 27-of-34 dropbacks (79%). That usage is very encouraging in his first game, especially since we’ve seen this Denver team use multiple tight ends this season. He’ll be on the streaming radar this week and is an easy value play in DFS formats.

Jets

Quarterback

Zach Wilson has essentially done enough over the last few weeks to not lose games for the Jets. He certainly hasn’t won fantasy matchups for anyone, averaging 13.3 fantasy points per game, and even that is skewed a bit by his touchdown reception from Week 4. Since Wilson made his season debut, the Jets have been a run-first football team, sporting the league’s 12th-highest rush rate in neutral gamescripts (47%), which has led to Wilson averaging just 25 pass attempts per game. Against Denver’s stellar defense that is coughing up the second-fewest points per drive (1.30) and lowest passing touchdown rate (1.8%), Wilson is unlikely to suddenly become fantasy relevant.

Running Back

The Breece Hall show continued last week, as the rookie phenom carried the ball 20 times for 116 yards and a touchdown. It was a season-high in carries and rushing yards for Hall, who has played at least 66% of the snaps in each of the last three games. Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur has done a great job of using both Hall and Michael Carter on the field together, something that his brother over in Green Bay should work on. Hall has obviously achieved must-start status, even against a tough Broncos defense. 

Wide Receiver

I really don’t want to start any Jets wide receivers. Corey Davis continues to be Wilson’s top target, which has carried over from last season, while Elijah Moore is coming off a game where he didn’t see a single target. After seemingly not leaving the field during the first four weeks of the season, Moore has now played 66% and 58% of the snaps over the last two weeks, as he lost playing time in three-wide sets to Braxton Berrios last week. The Jets were already struggling to support multiple wide receivers when they were throwing the ball 60 times per game with Joe Flacco, so it isn’t a surprise to see them struggling to do the same now that they are throwing the ball 25 times per game. Garrett Wilson is still a really exciting player, but the volume just isn’t there, especially with Davis leading this team in targets.

Tight End

Tyler Conklin’s time as a fantasy relevant tight end is over. During Weeks 1-4, Conklin was playing 88% of the snaps, while running a route on 80% of dropbacks and ranking top-three among tight ends in routes. But over the last two weeks, Conklin is playing just 67% of the snaps, while running a route on 44% of dropbacks. 

Houston Texans @ Las Vegas Raiders

Total: 45.5, LV -7
Pace: LV: 26.83 sec/snap (6th), HOU: 27.8 sec/snap (20th)

What to watch for: Darren Waller left Week 5’s game early with a hamstring injury and after the bye, is still questionable.

Raiders

Quarterback

Derek Carr is fresh off a bye and ready to host a Houston defense that has quietly been limiting fantasy production to opposing passers, surrendering the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position (13.7). Carr is currently a top-12 quarterback in points per game and while the Texans are allowing the second-lowest passing touchdown rate (2.2%), a lot of it has to do with the fact that teams are simply finding so much success running the football against them. The Raiders have one of the highest implied team totals of the week and Carr has to improve on his incredibly low completion percentage from inside the 10-yard line (28.5%). 

Running Back

Heading into the season, I was very worried about Josh Jacobs. We know that Josh McDaniels likes to use multiple running backs, while the team brought in Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden. It appears I was incredibly wrong, as Jacobs has been one of the top players in fantasy this season, averaging 19.4 PPR points per game, the fifth-best mark among running backs. Jacobs is averaging nearly 22 touches per game, while logging 74% of the snaps. However, over the last two weeks, Jacobs has averaged 29.5 touches per game, while playing 85% of the snaps. He has absolutely dominated the share of the Raiders backfield as of late, trailing only Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey in opportunity share on the year (83%). He’s rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last two games and could easily make it three straight against a Texans run defense that is coughing up 164.8 rushing yards per game, while 14.8% of the runs against this team have gone for 10 or more yards, the fifth-highest rate in football. And despite only playing five games, the Texans still lead the NFL in missed tackles (39), which bodes well for Jacobs, who is sixth in avoided tackles per attempt (0.31).

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams is obviously a must-start wide receiver. Before the bye, he destroyed the Chiefs defense to the tune of 124 yards and two touchdowns. Adams already has five touchdowns on the season, while he is tied for the league-lead in end zone targets with nine. He’s seen 39% of the team’s targets from inside the 10-yard line, a top-seven rate among all wide receivers, while his 41.9% of Las Vegas’ red zone targets is the third-highest rate in football. 

Hunter Renfrow has missed a few games with a concussion but in the three games he’s played in, he’s been underwhelming. The addition of Adams has really hurt Renfrow, who isn’t seeing the same volume as last year, especially in the red zone where he was the Raiders clear top option. Perhaps he sees more consistent work if Darren Waller is out, but the Raiders have been relying on the run more lately, something they could easily do in this game. Renfrow is a solid WR3.

Tight End

Darren Waller only played eight snaps last Monday night before hurting his hamstring. He did not return and after not practicing Wednesday, should be considered questionable for this game. Foster Moreau also hasn’t played since Week 3, which could lead to the Raiders being very thin at the tight end position this week. If Waller is active, you are starting him but if he’s out, Moreau, who practiced Wednesday, could be a tight end streamer this week.

Texans

Quarterback

Davis Mills’ season-high for fantasy points this season is 16.5, while he’s failed to score a touchdown in two of five games. He’s also been under 200 passing yards in two games and even though the Raiders defense isn’t elite by any means, I just can’t envision a scenario where you are starting Mills in fantasy leagues right now, again, outside of as a bye week replacement in superflex formats. 

Running Back

Fresh off a bye, Dameon Pierce is looking to continue crushing. Since Week 3, Pierce is averaging 23.6 touches per game, while also adding some work in the passing game. He’s found the end zone in each of his last three games and while Rex Burkhead is clearly going to be on the field when the Texans are chasing points, we really haven’t seen them get behind by a crazy amount this season, which has kept Pierce on the field. Pierce is clearly a must-start running back against a Raiders team that ranks fifth in the league in missed tackles (34), which bodes well for Pierce, who ranks third in the NFL in avoided tackles per attempt (0.38), tied with Nick Chubb, which shows how impressive Pierce has been. The Raiders have also been an awful red zone defense, as opponents are scoring touchdowns on 14-of-17 red zone trips against Las Vegas (82.4%), the worst rate in the league. Continue to start Pierce as a high-end RB2.

Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks has been a tad underwhelming this season, scoring just one touchdown and eclipsing 57 receiving yards just once, while recording less than 30 yards twice. The volume has still been solid, as Cooks is averaging 8.4 targets per game, while the veteran wideout has handled 44.4% of Houston’s red zone targets this season, the second-highest rate in the league. He also has 60% of the team’s targets from inside the 10-yard line so if he continues to see red zone looks, a touchdown could easily follow, especially given how bad the Raiders red zone defense has been. I have Cooks as a low-end WR2 this week.

Tight End

There are a few teams that have truly awful tight end situations for fantasy football. And despite how high I was on Brevin Jordan entering the season, the Texans are one of them.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 51, LAC -6
Pace: LAC: 26.72 sec/snap (4th), SEA: 27.51 sec/snap (14th)

What to watch for: Keenan Allen (hamstring) hasn’t played since Week 1 but this feels like the week he finally returns.

Chargers

Quarterback

Despite attempting a whopping 57 passes Monday night, Justin Herbert threw for just 238 yards, while failing to score a touchdown. It was an incredibly disappointing outing, as Herbert continues to be held back by Joe Lombardi’s offense that isn’t taking shots down the field. Just 10.5% of Herbert’s pass attempts have traveled 20-plus yards down the field this season (22nd), while he ranks 32nd in air yards per pass attempt (6.5) and 25th in completed air yards per pass attempt (3.1). Perhaps things change this week, as Herbert faces a Seattle defense that is allowing the third-highest aDOT (9.1 yards), while 15% of the passes against the Seahawks have traveled 20 yards down the field, the second-highest rate in football. Plus, potentially getting Keenan Allen back would certainly help, too. With the Seahawks also allowing the second-most points (2.48), second-most plays (6.5) and most yards (39.1) per drive, Herbert should be able to bounce back in a huge way.

Running Back

Remember when Austin Ekeler was a huge disappointment after three weeks of play? Yeah, well, Ekeler is now the RB1 in fantasy, as he’s dominated over the last three weeks, scoring six total touchdowns. He should continue to post huge numbers against a Seattle defense that is coughing up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season (22.7), as well as the ninth-most receptions per game to running backs (5.2). It was also nice to see Ekeler convert a carry from inside the 5-yard line into a touchdown last week. Sure, he’s still playing around 60% of the snaps but when he’s on the field, he’s touching the ball. Ekeler is my RB1 for the week.

Wide Receiver

The Mike Williams experience was in full effect last week. After posting consecutive 100-yard games in Weeks 4 and 5, Williams only caught two passes for 16 yards against the Broncos in Week 6. He saw plenty of coverage from Pat Surtain but only targeting your best wide receiver in a game where you throw nearly 60 passes just seems strange. Williams could easily bounce back against a Seattle defense that is allowing plenty of explosive plays in the passing game. His target share likely takes a hit if Keenan Allen is back, but you are still starting Williams as a boom-or-bust WR2.

Speaking of Allen, if he plays, I doubt your fantasy team is so loaded at wide receiver that you don’t have to start him. A hamstring injury has kept him sidelined since Week 1, but he should be able to post strong numbers against a Seattle defense that has given it up to opposing slot wide receivers this season, allowing three touchdowns to receivers from the slot. And if Joshua Palmer (concussion) is unable to play, the targets should be even more concentrated in this offense.

Tight End

The return of Donald Parham is hurting Gerald Everett, who played a season-low 65% of the snaps in Parham’s debut in Week 5. That number dropped to 55% this past week, while Parham and Tre’ McKitty are playing plenty of snaps. Everett still saw seven targets, catching five for 29 yards, but he is trending in the wrong direction and if Allen is back, the targets will drop. While Everett is no longer a surefire top-12 fantasy tight end, he’s still worth a look this week based on the matchup. Seattle is allowing the most fantasy points (21.4) per game to opposing tight ends on the year, while only two teams have allowed more touchdown receptions to the position (4).

Note: Parham is in the league’s concussion protocol and did not practice Wednesday.

Seahawks

Quarterback

Geno Smith didn’t play poorly last week but Arizona did a good job of eliminating the deep passing plays from Seattle. Smith finished the game with just 197 passing yards and zero touchdowns, his worst game since Week 2. You still love the uptick in pace we are seeing from Seattle, who now rank fifth in the NFL in no-huddle rate (17.1%), while the Seahawks continue to throw the ball more on early downs. I have Smith as a high-end QB2 ahead of a matchup with a struggling Chargers defense that is allowing the fifth-most points per drive so far this season (2.35).

Running Back

Kenneth Walker’s first career start was impressive, as the rookie rushed for 97 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. He played 69% of the snaps and handled 23-of-25 running back touches. Walker did lose all of the two-minute drill snaps to DeeJay Dallas, but he did at least play one more third down snap than him. Walker looked incredible, forcing an insane 12 missed tackles during the game and now he faces a weak Chargers run defense that is surrendering the 10th-most rushing yards (130.4) and fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. The Chargers have also allowed three running backs to rush for at least 100 yards against them already this season. Walker is a top-15 running back for the rest of the season and an obvious must-start player.

Wide Receiver

Both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are coming off quiet games against the Cardinals, who slowed down Seattle’s passing attack. Metcalf should have had a touchdown, as he was open in the end zone, but Smith saw him late, making it a more difficult catch. He’s still seen 47.4% of Seattle’s red zone targets on the year, the highest rate in all of football, though he’s only converted one of his nine red zone looks into receptions. Metcalf is also tied for the league-lead with nine end zone targets, so I’d expect some positive touchdown regression to head his way. Metcalf will see coverage from J.C. Jackson, who has struggled this year and was actually benched last game. Jackson is allowing a whopping 0.48 fantasy points per coverage route, a 155.3 passer rating and three touchdowns in coverage so far this year. Metcalf is a low-end WR2, as well as Lockett, who is averaging a healthy 8.2 targets per game over his last five outings.

Tight End

Will Dissly and Noah Fant continue to split the playing time at tight end. In Week 6, Dissly played 44 snaps and ran 19 pass routes, while Fant played 43 snaps and ran 22 routes. Fant, however, caught 6-of-7 targets for 45 yards, while Dissly was only targeted once. He’s seen 12 targets over the last two weeks to Dissly’s four, so if choosing between the two, I’d go with Fant.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers

Total: 48.5, KC -2.5
Pace: SF: 29.63 sec/snap (28th), KC: 27.32 sec/snap (13th)

What to watch for: San Francisco’s defense continues to deal with injuries. CB Charvarius Ward left Sunday’s game with a groin injury, as well as Jimmie Ward.

49ers

Quarterback

With San Francisco surprisingly chasing points last week, Jimmy Garoppolo was forced to throw a season-high 41 passes. If you started him as a streaming quarterback, you were pleased, as Garoppolo threw for 296 yards, a pair of touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. Garoppolo did a ton of his work in the screen game with the San Francisco pass-catchers making plays after the catch, which is nothing new for this offense. Garoppolo might have to throw quite a bit again to keep up with Patrick Mahomes this weekend, especially with San Francisco’s defense dealing with so many key injuries. Kansas City’s defense isn’t the strongest, surrendering the fourth-most points per drive (2.73). The Chiefs have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in every game this season, while coughing up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (22.09). They have been a pass funnel this season, as 74.6% of the yardage allowed by the Chiefs has been through the air, the highest rate in the league. Garoppolo is once again a solid streaming option and a top-15 quarterback for me.

Running Back

Jeff Wilson is coming off a brutal game, rushing for 25 yards on seven carries, while losing a fumble. Once the Falcons got ahead by two scores, you immediately knew Wilson would underwhelm, as he played just 52% of the snaps, his lowest snap share in a game since Week 2, his first game as San Francisco’s starting running back. You can run on the Chiefs but if the 49ers fall behind again, Tevin Coleman could continue to see plenty of work, especially since he’s already been cutting into his playing time a little bit over the last two weeks. Wilson is a low-end RB2 for me this week.

Friday Update: Christian McCaffrey has been traded to the San Francisco 49ers. It is unclear if he’ll play this weekend and how much if he does, but if he’s active, I’m starting him, especially against a Chiefs defense that is allowing the most receptions, receiving yards and targets per game to opposing backfields on the season. Going from Carolina’s offense to San Francisco’s fantasy-friendly rushing scheme is like going from a Lunchable to a sirloin steak.

Wide Receiver

The Kansas City Chiefs have been getting absolutely torched by opposing No. 1 wide receivers right now. Stefon Diggs just caught 10 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown against this unit, and as you’ll see, top wideouts have had huge games against this Chiefs defense this season. Kansas City is relying on young defensive backs in their secondary right now and on the season, they are allowing the fifth-most yards after the catch (702), which is obviously great for Deebo Samuel, who is averaging 9.9 yards after the catch per reception this year, easily the most among wide receivers. You are obviously starting Samuel with confidence, especially when you consider that he is seeing fewer carries and more targets as of late, averaging a solid 8.4 targets per game over his last four games.

Brandon Aiyuk rebounded in a huge way last week, hauling in eight of a team-high 11 targets for 83 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Falcons. San Francisco used Aiyuk in multiple ways, whether on screen passes, option routes, etc. He could line up against Joshua Williams this week, a fourth-rounder from this past draft who struggled last week, though it was a tough spot for him to find success. If San Francisco is forced to pass a lot yet again, Aiyuk should see 7-10 targets. He’s a perfectly fine WR3 this week in a positive matchup.

WR1 Production vs. Kansas City

Tight End

George Kittle is coming off his best game of the short season, catching eight passes for 83 yards, while seeing 10 targets. Kittle’s usage continues to trend upwards and is a must-start fantasy tight end against an awful Kansas City red zone defense that is allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 75% of red zone trips, the third-highest rate in the NFL. 

Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes is coming off a solid Week 6 outing, throwing for 338 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. On paper, this isn’t the greatest matchup, but it doesn’t matter for Mahomes anyway. And this defense is dealing with plenty of injuries, as Nick Bosa, Charvarius Ward, Arik Armstead and Jimmie Ward are all banged up, while Emmanuel Moseley is obviously out for the rest of the season. The 49ers just allowed 28 points to the Falcons last week so continue to start Mahomes with all of the confidence in the world.

Running Back

Even with four teams on bye, I am not too excited to start Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who hasn’t found the end zone in consecutive games. He only touched the ball nine times, while failing to catch a pass for the first time all season. Edwards-Helaire is still only averaging 12.5 touches per game on the year, while logging 44.2% of the offensive snaps. I’m not sure that will be enough usage against a stout 49ers run defense that is surrendering the second-fewest fantasy points (14.7) per game to opposing backfields this season, while just 6.2% of the runs against San Francisco have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league. CEH is an RB2 based on how shallow the running back position is, especially with four teams on bye, but I’m tempering expectations.

Wide Receiver

It was nice to see JuJu Smith-Schuster finally come through with a great game, hauling in all five of his targets for 113 yards and a touchdown against the Bills. However, it was a bit fluky, as his 42-yard touchdown came off an incredible play by Mahomes to extend the play, followed by three Buffalo defenders missing an easy tackle. Still, he remains the WR1 in an offense led by arguably the best quarterback in the NFL, which will keep him in the WR3 range for fantasy, especially against a depleted San Francisco secondary. 

Meanwhile, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are decent flex options. Hardman found the end zone last week but continues to play behind JuJu and MVS, who had two end zone targets last week, for what it’s worth, one of which was a touchdown that was called back.

Tight End

Start Travis Kelce. His seven end zone targets rank sixth among all players in the league this season, while no player has seen more targets from inside the 10-yard line (10). Kelce has at least 90 yards or a touchdown in all but one game this season and faces a banged-up 49ers defense that just allowed a pair of tight end touchdowns to the Falcons in Week 6.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins

Total: 45, MIA -7
Pace: MIA: 28.34 sec/snap (25th), PIT: 27.56 sec/snap (15th)

What to watch for: Tua Tagovailoa is expected to return for Miami this week. For the Steelers, Kenny Pickett (concussion) is questionable, while Pat Freiermuth should return.

Dolphins

Quarterback

After missing the last few games, Tua Tagovailoa is not listed on Miami’s injury report and will play against the Steelers. Immediately, Tagovailoa becomes a borderline top-12 quarterback, as the matchup is great. Pittsburgh secondary is vulnerable and banged up, while allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (20.6). The Steelers are also coughing up the eighth-most yards per pass attempt (7.5), as well as the sixth-highest passing touchdown rate (5.2%). In the games Tua has been under center this season, Miami has been pass-heavy, especially on early downs, and I think that continues this week. 

Running Back

Raheem Mostert remains the RB1 in Miami, coming off a game where he logged 62% of the snaps, while handling 15-of-19 running back touches. Over his last three games, Mostert is averaging a solid 17 touches per game and while Chase Edmonds played more snaps on third downs and in two-minute situations last week, Mostert is still seeing more than enough work to warrant low-end RB2 consideration. 

Wide Receiver

Last week was a prime example of why you don’t even think about benching players with the talent of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Despite playing with Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater in Week 6, Hill went off for 12 catches for 177 yards, while Waddle hauled in six passes for 129 yards. So far this season, Hill and Waddle have combined for 53% of Miami’s targets, 68% of the receiving yards and 56% of the receptions. Hill has seen double-digit targets in four-of-six games to start the season, while he leads all qualified wideouts in target per route run rate (33%). This is obviously an incredible spot for both wide receivers, as the Steelers continue to give up huge games to opposing wideouts. With Chris Godwin recording 95 yards against them last week, Pittsburgh has now allowed at least 95 yards or a touchdown to 10 different wide receivers. They have also allowed a league-leading four deep passing touchdowns on the year, which bodes well for Hill, who is tied for the league-lead in deep targets with 14. With Pittsburgh’s secondary still banged up, this is one of the more glaring mismatches of the week. Expect stellar games from both Hill and Waddle Sunday night.

Tight End

I have mostly been overlooking Mike Gesicki in fantasy, but he is coming off his best week of the year, hauling in a pair of touchdown passes. He played a season-high 64% of the snaps, while running a route on 76% of dropbacks. However, Durham Smythe was inactive last week and is practicing to start the week and because Smythe plays over 50% of the snaps, his absence absolutely played a role in Gesicki’s uptick in usage last week. 

Steelers

Quarterback

We’ll see who is under center for the Steelers this week, as rookie Kenny Pickett suffered a concussion last week, though he has been cleared to practice in full. Whether it is Pickett or Mitch Trubisky, I don’t have much interest in starting either Pittsburgh signal caller outside of superflex formats. 

Running Back

Najee Harris found the end zone last week, but he remains, at best, a low-end RB2. Harris touched the ball 16 times but only recorded 49 total yards against Tampa Bay, as he continues to struggle to find running room behind this poor offensive line. Jaylen Warren only had two touches last week, while his snap share dropped from 51% in Week 5 to 31% this past weekend. Harris should be in line for 16-18 touches, but it doesn’t appear as if he’ll see anywhere close to the usage he saw in 2021, especially in the passing game. A matchup against the Dolphins isn’t easy, as Miami is stuffing 25% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Harris remains an uninspiring, volume-based RB2.

Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson caught just five passes for 28 yards last week and he’s now been under 10 targets in two of his last three games. He has yet to find the end zone so far this season, though he has accounted for 29% of Pittsburgh’s red zone targets, a top-15 rate among all wide receivers. His target floor remains relatively high, regardless of who is under center for the Steelers. The Dolphins have been a pass funnel this season, as 71% of the yardage surrendered by this defense has come through the air, the 8th-highest rate in football. Against a Miami defense that is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts, Johnson is a high-end WR3/low-end WR2. 

We saw a great game from Chase Claypool last week, as he was the hero for the Steelers in their upset win over the Bucs. Claypool caught all seven of his targets for 96 yards and a touchdown and while it was a great showing, I’m not rushing to plug him into my starting lineup or anything. Of his seven targets, five came in the second half once Trubisky entered the game, which means only two of his targets came from Pickett. If Pickett is under center, I expect Johnson and George Pickens to lead this team in targets.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth missed last week’s game with a concussion but is on track to return Sunday night. As long as he’s active, Freiermuth is a top-12 fantasy tight end simply based on usage and talent. There is nothing wrong with this matchup, as Miami is allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season.

Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots

Total: 39.5, NE -8
Pace: NE: 29.83 sec/snap (29th), CHI: 27.82 sec/snap (20th)

What to watch for: Will Mac Jones return to start at QB? Or will it be Bailey Zappe again? For the Bears, head coach Matt Eberflus said the team will use a hot hand approach at RB.

Patriots

Quarterback

Bailey Zappe is coming off a great game against Cleveland, completing 24-of-34 passes for 309 yards and two touchdowns, as he continues to play pretty well in the absence of Mac Jones. It is possible that Jones returns to the lineup this week, moving Zappe back to the bench, but it is also possible he actually continues to start. I wouldn’t plan on starting Zappe or Jones in most fantasy leagues, especially against a Chicago defense that is allowing the fifth-lowest passing touchdown rate this season at 2.4%. Most of the production against this Bears defense has come on the ground, as just 30.7% of the yardage against Chicago has been via the pass, tied for the lowest rate in football.

Running Back

Rhamondre Stevenson is obviously a must-start running back until Damien Harris returns to the lineup. With Harris (hamstring) out last week, Stevenson rushed for 76 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 19 carries. He played 96% of the snaps during the first three quarters before Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong got some work in the final quarter of a blowout game. Stevenson also ran a route on 69% of dropbacks and has an incredible role. He should continue to crush this Monday night, facing a bad Bears run defense as a home favorite. Chicago is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (23.05), while no team in football is allowing more rushing yards per game to running backs (122.8). The Bears also rank third in missed tackles (36), which bodes well for Stevenson, who is breaking a tackle every 7.3 rushing attempts this year, the fourth-best rate in the league. As long as Harris remains sidelined, Stevenson will be a top-seven fantasy running back.

Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers didn’t have a huge game last week, but you’ll take four catches for 60 yards. He’s had at least 60 yards in three of four games so far this season and gets the best individual matchup among the New England pass-catchers in this game. Meyers, who lines up out of the slot 68.5% of the time on the year, will see coverage from rookie slot defensive back Kyler Gordon, who is allowing 0.43 fantasy points per coverage route and an 80% catch rate in coverage. Gordon is also allowing a reception every 5.5 coverage snaps in slot coverage, the fifth-worst rate among qualified defensive backs, while allowing the second-most yards (279) and most touchdowns (2). Regardless of who is under center for the Patriots this week, Meyers projects as a very solid WR3. 

I wouldn’t feel great about starting DeVante Parker, though he was productive last week, hauling in 4-of-6 targets for 64 yards. However, he’s been very boom-or-bust, and this doesn’t feel like a game where we see many pass attempts. In really deep leagues, however, I’d keep an eye on Tyquan Thornton, who returned to the lineup last week, logging 57% of the snaps and running a route on 72% of dropbacks. Kendrick Bourne (toe) left the game in the first quarter, while Nelson Agholor was ruled out, which helped Thornton see more playing time, but Bourne is reportedly on the trade block.

Tight End

Jonnu Smith returned from a one-game absence last week but Hunter Henry remained involved, catching four-of-seven targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. The veteran tight end logged 68-of-70 snaps, while running a route on 80% of dropbacks, though it is entirely possible Smith’s playing time increases going forward, as he only played 43% of the snaps Sunday. You can still take a chance on Henry as a streaming tight end but don’t be shocked if the Patriots go back to using both tight ends plenty.

Bears

Quarterback

Justin Fields scored about 20 fantasy points last week, his best outing of the season. He rushed for 88 yards on 12 carries, as he is now averaging nine rushing attempts and 47 rushing yards per game. It has helped him average 0.47 fantasy points per dropback on the year, a top-13 rate in the league. A matchup with the Patriots definitely isn’t the greatest thing in the world, but it also isn’t the worst. He also attempted a season-high 27 passes last week and while it may sound like a joke, the fact that he has eclipsed 20 pass attempts in three consecutive games is at least something. 

Running Back

With the Bears now expected to use a hot hand approach at running back, it is possible that David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert become the NFC’s version of Jacksonville’s backfield. When both players have been active this year, Chicago has played Montgomery for two drives, followed by one for Herbert. Now it is possible they just simply rotate series going forward, which is a nightmare for fantasy football purposes. I’d still lean towards Montgomery getting at least 60% of the work but Herbert has shown the ability to rip off long runs, which could lead to him getting more opportunities starting this week. The Patriots are the definition of a league average run defense but Montgomery and Herbert project as flex plays for me here.

Wide Receiver

Darnell Mooney continues to see plenty of opportunities. He saw 12 targets last week for an awesome 46% target share. Mooney is now sporting a strong 29.7% target share for the season, which is the ninth-highest rate in the NFL, while he’s also seen 45.9% of Chicago’s air yards, the highest rate in all of football. He has been much more productive as of late, recording 94, 52 and 68 receiving yards and if the Bears continue to throw the ball just a little bit more, Mooney could finally push top-30 status among wide receivers. 

Tight End

It just simply isn’t happening for Cole Kmet, who has just 10 receptions for 116 yards and zero touchdowns on the season. New England has struggled against tight ends so far this year, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points (11.78), eighth-most targets (7.8) and second-most receiving touchdowns (0.8) per game to the position, but Kmet just isn’t seeing enough consistent usage in this offense.