Week 9 Fantasy Football Game By Game Breakdown

Tuesday was an absolute nightmare.

Here I was, ready to dive into the game-by-game fantasy football article for Week 9 like I always do, until a battle with food poisoning sidelined me all day long. Because of it, things are a bit different this week. The Thursday game and 1 p.m. ET slate all be available Thursday like normal, with the only difference being that the 4 p.m. and Sunday/Monday primetime games will be up later Thursday or Friday. (Update: All games are now live, and somehow so am I.)

Thank you for understanding, and good luck getting through Week 9’s bye week hell.

Week 9 byes: Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco

Philadelphia Eagles @ Houston Texans

Total: 45, PHI -13.5
Pace: HOU: 28.38 sec/snap (25th), PHI: 27.9 sec/snap (19th)

What to watch for: Nico Collins (groin) is unlikely to play in this game.

Texans

Quarterback

There are plenty of teams on bye this week, but that still doesn’t make Davis Mills a viable starting fantasy signal caller, especially against a tough Philadelphia defense. The Eagles are allowing the fourth-lowest passing touchdown rate in the league (3.0%), while also generating pressure at the league’s ninth-highest rate (24.9%). Meanwhile, only the Broncos are allowing fewer fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (10.2), while allowing just one passing touchdown per game to the position. 

Running Back

Dameon Pierce had 18 touches Sunday, his fewest in a game since Week 2, which just shows how terrific his volume has been this season. Pierce is now averaging 20.1 touches per game on the year and has had 100 scrimmage yards and/or a touchdown in each of his last five games. Since Week 3, Pierce is the RB10 in fantasy, while ranking 11th in rushing yards (438), 10th in carries from inside the 5-yard line (5) and first in avoided tackles (33). Pierce trails only Nick Chubb in avoided tackles on the year (41), and his 0.34 avoided tackles per attempt ranks third in football. He’s facing a great Eagles defense, but the volume isn’t going anywhere for Pierce, who should once again be in line for 18-20 touches, and the usage in the passing game has climbed as of late, with Pierce catching at least three passes in each of his last four games. Despite missing a game since Week 4, Pierce still ranks 11th among running backs in targets (18) and ninth in receptions (16). Continue to start him as a top-15 fantasy running back.

Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks was not moved before Tuesday’s trade deadline, which keeps him in Houston for the remainder of the season. Cooks’ ceiling hasn’t been there this season, as he’s only scored one touchdown and has yet to record more than 82 receiving yards in a game. It is tough to envision a scenario where we see a huge ceiling from Cooks this week, as he’ll line up against the combination of Darius Slay and James Bradberry, who have been the best defensive back duo in football this season. Cooks has only lined up in the slot about 25% of the time this season — with Nico Collins sidelined last week, that number dropped to 19.5%. Playing on the perimeter against this Philadelphia secondary is brutal, as the Eagles are coughing up the second-lowest yards per reception to receivers lined up out wide (10.6), and their 54% catch rate allowed to perimeter receivers is easily the lowest mark in the league. Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, who primarily play out wide for the Steelers, just combined for five catches for 35 yards last week. Slay is allowing just 0.17 fantasy points per coverage route, as well as a 44% catch rate, while Bradberry is allowing 0.12 fantasy points per coverage route, the second-best mark on the slate. Cooks is a very low-upside WR3 that I wouldn’t be afraid of benching this week.

After I wrote this section, news came out that Cooks is set to miss this game. In other words … Do not start any Houston pass-catchers and enjoy the 12-plus points from the Eagles DST.

Tight End

The good news? Brevin Jordan led the Texans tight ends in snap share (56%) and route participation (46%) last week. The bad news? Houston is still using three tight ends right now. Targets tend to funnel to the middle of the field and to tight ends against the Eagles because their secondary is so good. Tight ends are averaging 7.9 targets per game against Philadelphia this season, the fifth-most in football, but my interest in Jordan or any tight end from this offense is reserved for DFS contests.

Eagles

Quarterback

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Jalen Hurts was fantastic last week.

Hurts threw four touchdowns against the Steelers, all 20-plus yards from the end zone. His 0.69 fantasy points per dropback lead the league, and he’s averaging an awesome 25 fantasy points per game. While the passing volume hasn’t been elite because opposing teams simply can’t keep up with the Eagles, Hurts has remained very efficient, while obviously adding a ton of production in the rushing department. Hurts ranks first among quarterbacks in rushing attempts per game (11.3), while also ranking first in red zone carries (3.6) and fifth in rushing yards per game (43.3). His 10 rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line lead all quarterbacks, also ranking third in the league in that department. Houston’s pass defense has looked solid on paper, but it is mostly because their run defense simply cannot stop anyone right now, which limits the passing volume of opposing offenses. Hurts should be able to do whatever he wants in this game. 

Running Back

Death, taxes and running backs against the Houston Texans.

Sure, Miles Sanders is not Derrick Henry, but we just watched Henry rush for over 200 yards for the fourth consecutive time against the Texans. This run defense is laughably bad right now, allowing 186 (!) rushing yards per game on the year, easily the most in football. They have already allowed four running backs to rush for over 100 yards against them, while also surrendering 2.64 yards before contact per rush attempt, ninth in the league. That bodes extremely well for Sanders, who has always posted a ton of yards before contact behind this Philadelphia offensive line. Sanders is currently averaging 3.2 yards before contact per rush so far this season, good for the sixth-highest rate among qualified running backs. And according to FTN Fantasy’s advanced rushing stats, Sanders has 23 rushes this season where he wasn’t even contacted, the most by a running back. There are plenty of opportunities for running backs to get to the second level against this Houston defense that allows the most yards after contact per rush in football (2.92), while over 17% of the runs against the Texans have gone for 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league. Sanders, meanwhile, ranks fifth in runs of 10-plus yards this year (17). You’d like to see more usage in the passing game and in the red zone, but Sanders found the end zone last week and is still averaging a healthy 17.8 touches per game on the year. He is a low-end RB1 in this dream matchup.

RBs vs. Houston this season

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown is coming off an impressive hat trick against the Steelers, hauling in 6-of-11 targets for 156 yards and three touchdowns. All three of his scores came from 25-plus yards out, as Brown continues to shine in his first year with the Eagles. Brown still ranks inside the top five among wideouts in target share (31.5%) and air yards share (46%) on the season, while also seeing 46.2% of Philadelphia’s targets from inside the 10-yard line this year, the second-highest rate in football. Meanwhile, 39.1% of the red zone passes by Philadelphia have headed his way, also the second-highest rate in football. He’s an obvious must-start wide receiver.

While DeVonta Smith isn’t a must-start, he is pretty close to it in 12-team, 3-WR leagues. Smith still saw eight targets last week, while catching five passes for the fifth week of the season. He’s made plenty of plays down the field this season and with the Eagles having a massive implied team total, they could score more than enough points for everyone to eat. Smith is an extremely high-upside WR3.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert bounced back last week, catching all six of his targets for 64 yards. Like Smith, however, he took a backseat to A.J. Brown’s stellar performance, but he could have a great game Thursday night. Goedert still ranks second among tight ends in yards per target (10.5), third in yards per reception (13.2) and fifth in yards per route run (1.91). He also still leads the position in yards after the catch per reception (10.09) and now faces a Houston defense that ranks top-three in the NFL in missed tackles (49). I could easily see an 80-yard outing from Goedert with a chance of scoring a touchdown.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons

Total: 49.5, LAC -3
Pace: ATL: 29.7 sec/snap (28th), LAC: 26.6 sec/snap (5th)

What to watch for: The Chargers will be without Mike Williams for the next few weeks.

Falcons

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota can’t keep doing this, right? The veteran signal caller continues to thrive off such low volume. Mariota is currently averaging the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback (0.64), trailing only Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. He’s coming off a game where he threw for 253 yards and three touchdowns on just 28 pass attempts, while those 28 attempts were the second most in a game from him this season. Mariota’s 5.6% passing touchdown rate is the sixth-highest mark in the league, ahead of players like Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray. However, he ranks 24th in pass attempts, while Atlanta is sporting the league’s lowest neutral-script passing rate (42.8%). Of course, Mariota has also added plenty of production on the ground, rushing for at least 30 yards in five different games this season. I am still fully expecting Mariota to regress, as he’s averaging around six yards after the catch per completion this year, but he’s more than viable to stream once again this week. The Falcons are home against a banged-up, struggling Chargers pass defense that is allowing the fifth-highest passing touchdown rate (5.5%), while they are also coughing up the sixth-most points per drive (2.30), while opposing offenses are scoring points on 43% of drives, the fourth-highest rate in football. The Chargers have also struggled to defend the play-action pass, surrendering the sixth-highest completion rate (73.6%), most yards per attempt (9.9) and fifth-most yards per completion (14.2) off the play type. That bodes extremely well for Mariota, as 48.1% of his dropbacks come off play-action this year, the highest rate in the league.

Running Back

Cordarrelle Patterson is getting close to a return, and it could be as early as this week. If he is active, I am most likely avoiding this Atlanta backfield if I can help it but if he remains sidelined, Tyler Allgeier will once again remain a viable flex play. Allgeier didn’t do much on the ground last week but made up for it by catching a 25-yard touchdown pass, which was an outlier considering he saw three targets, giving him a whopping five targets on the year. Allgeier is seeing enough volume in Atlanta’s run-first offense to warrant flex consideration, averaging a respectable 15.2 touches per game over his last four outings. He’s logged at least 57% of the snaps in each of the last four games, while reaching 60% of the snaps in each of the last two games. Allgeier gets a great matchup with an awful Chargers defense that allows the second-most yards before contact per rush in football (2.89), while also coughing up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (29.2) And if you’re really desperate at running back, Caleb Huntley actually led the team with 16 carries for 91 yards last week.

Wide Receiver

Since Week 4, Drake London has totaled 14 receptions, 24 targets, 132 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. After an extremely promising start to the year, London has struggled to post consistent numbers in this run-centric Atlanta offense. After some puzzling usage over the last couple games, it was good to see London log 88% of the snaps on Sunday, while running a route on just over 90% of dropbacks. But if Kyle Pitts is finally getting more involved, that is bad for London, as there just aren’t enough targets to go around in this offense right now. The talented rookie wideout is a low-end WR3 right now with a scary floor.

Tight End

Well hello, Kyle Pitts.

After a frustrating start to the season, Pitts put together his best game of the year Sunday, catching five of a season-high nine targets for 80 yards and a touchdown. The score was a well-designed play where Pitts appeared to be run-blocking but broke off the defender on a quick slant into the end zone. He ran a route on over 87% of dropbacks and played 75% of the snaps. I still think Pitts is going to have some absolute duds in this offense and as strange as it is to say, I’m not sure how many times Atlanta throws 28 passes the rest of the season. This is a solid matchup, as the Chargers are coughing up the fourth-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (63.7).

Chargers

Quarterback

Hopefully this is the start of a terrific run for Justin Herbert, who has been extremely underwhelming as of late. Since Week 3, Herbert is the QB20 in all of fantasy football, averaging just 15.3 fantasy points per game. Los Angeles’ offensive line has struggled this year, mainly due to the injuries, as Herbert has been under pressure on 35.7% of his dropbacks, the 10th-highest rate in football. Luckily, he faces an Atlanta defense that is generating pressure at the lowest rate in the NFL (11.5%), which bodes well for Herbert, who is completing 72% of his passes with 10 touchdowns when passing from a clean pocket this season. Not having Mike Williams definitely hurts but if Keenan Allen is 100% coming off the bye, that will be huge for Herbert’s efficiency. This is obviously a favorable matchup, as the Falcons are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (20.7) on the year, while also allowing the second-most points (2.49), second-most plays (6.6) and most yards (40.6) per drive in the NFL. I’m still starting Herbert without hesitation but if he fails in this spot, I’ll be worried.

Running Back

You are obviously starting Austin Ekeler, who has simply been unbelievable since his slow start in Weeks 1-3. Since Week 4, Ekeler is the clear RB1 in fantasy, averaging a gaudy 29 PPR points per game during that span. In that same stretch, Ekeler also ranks first among running backs in targets (44), first in receptions (40) and third in receiving yards (267). And over the last two weeks, we have seen Ekeler’s snap rate climb, logging 66% and 77% of the snaps in Weeks 6 and 7. We’ve also seen him see more usage from inside the 5-yard line as of late, as he’s scored an insane eight total touchdowns since Week 4.

Wide Receiver

With Mike Williams out and Keenan Allen not expected to play, Joshua Palmer has low-end WR2 upside this week, especially against an Atlanta defense that is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the season. Palmer should see 8-10 targets as the Chargers lead wide receiver.

DeAndre Carter is also a viable WR3/flex play, especially with six teams on bye. He’ll be the full time slot receiver against an Atlanta team that ranks bottom-five against slot receivers on the year.

WRs vs. Atlanta since Week 6

Tight End

Gerald Everett has not played 60% of the snaps since Week 5, as the return of Donald Parham has bumped his playing time down a bit. Everett did see nine targets in his last game, however, that came with Allen playing limited snaps, Williams getting hurt and Parham (concussion) not playing. However, Everett should be able to see 6-8 targets once again against the Falcons, who are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points (15.8), third-most receiving yards (69.0), second-most receptions (6.8) and most targets (9.1) per game to opposing tight ends. 

Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 42.5, CIN -7.5
Pace: CIN: 27.35 sec/snap (13th), CAR: 26.05 sec/snap (2nd)

What to watch for: Chuba Hubbard missed last week’s game but could return to the lineup on Sunday. For Cincinnati, top DB Chidobe Awuzie has suffered a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the year.

Bengals

Quarterback

The Bengals offense put together an ugly performance Monday, scoring just 13 points against the Browns. Joe Burrow salvaged his day a little bit with a pair of touchdown passes in the second half, but this offense clearly struggled without Ja’Marr Chase. The offensive line remains a major concern, as Cincinnati continues to operate out of the shotgun to help minimize those concerns. If you look at Burrow’s best performances so far this season, they have come against defenses that struggle to generate a pass rush (ATL, NO, NYJ) but he’s struggled against teams that can get after it (DAL, PIT, BAL, CLE). Carolina ranks 22nd in pressure rate so far this season (20.5%), so while it isn’t a terrifying matchup, it also isn’t an amazing one either. The Panthers are around league average in passing touchdown rate allowed (3.9%) and above average in yards per pass attempt (6.9). I am still starting Burrow, but I am tempering expectations a bit without Chase.

Running Back

Week 8 was brutal for Joe Mixon, who totaled just 59 yards on 15 touches. He salvaged his day in PPR leagues by catching seven passes on nine targets, but efficiency continues to be an issue for Mixon behind a Cincinnati offensive line that is generating just 1.65 yards before contact per rush this season, the fourth-worst rate in football. Mixon is averaging just 4.0 yards per touch this season, which ranks outside the top-50 running backs in football, but he’ll continue to see strong volume in the passing game, especially with Chase out and especially if opposing defenses continue to deploy plenty of Cover-2 looks against the Bengals. Mixon has caught at least three passes in every game this season, while his 14.6% target share ranks sixth among all running backs. As home favorites, Mixon should return to flirting with 20 carries and you can run on the Panthers, who are allowing the 10th-most rushing yards per game this season (126.6). And Mixon still leads the league with 12 carries from inside the 5-yard line on the year.

Wide Receiver

Tee Higgins was doing next to nothing until his very late 41-yard touchdown reception Monday night, but he remains a must-start wide receiver, especially with Chase sidelined. Higgins has now had at least 90 yards or a touchdown in all but one full game he has played in this season. With Higgins lining up on the right side of the formation almost half of the time, he should avoid Jaycee Horn for much of this game, which is notable considering Horn is allowing just 0.6 fantasy points per coverage route this season, the lowest rate among all defensive backs on the slate. Horn has also only shadowed twice this season and it has been less than half of the routes during those games. 

Tyler Boyd, meanwhile, is a very strong WR3 until Chase comes back. He caught three passes for 38 yards and a touchdown last week, giving him two consecutive games with a score. The five targets weren’t great, but it didn’t help that the Bengals offense really couldn’t stay on the field. Carolina has been more vulnerable against slot wide receivers this season and both Boyd’s floor and ceiling are raised without Chase in the lineup. 

Tight End

Hayden Hurst had a quiet game last week, catching four passes for 42 yards. The floor is still higher than a lot of other tight ends that you would consider streaming in fantasy, as Hurts still ranks second among all tight ends in routes run through eight weeks of play (261). 

Panthers

Quarterback

PJ Walker completed 19-of-36 passes for 317 yards, one touchdown and an interception on Sunday. His fantasy totals were awful before connecting with DJ Moore on a beautiful 62-yard touchdown with almost no time left, a throw that was without question the most impressive throw of the 2022 season. After sporting an aDOT under 1.0 yards in his first start back in Week 6, Walker now ranks third among all quarterbacks in air yards over the last two weeks (646), and his 11.14-yard aDOT during that span also ranks third in the league. I’m still not actively looking to start Walker in most leagues, but he’s played very well over the last few weeks, which is terrific for this Carolina offense.

Running Back

With Chuba Hubbard inactive last week, D’Onta Foreman operated as Carolina’s lead running back and dominated, rushing for 118 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries. He logged 68% of the snaps and handled 26-of-34 running back touches in this game, while seeing three carries from inside the 5-yard line. Foreman looked great, forcing six missed tackles and constantly fighting for extra yardage. It’ll be interesting to see what the workload looks like if Hubbard is back in the lineup, as he was the lead back in Week 7 before suffering an injury early in the fourth quarter. Remember, 11 of Foreman’s 15 carries came in the fourth quarter of that game with Hubbard sidelined. However, it will be tough for the Panthers to not give Foreman a decent amount of work after what he showed them in Week 8. If Hubbard can’t return this week, Foreman would remain a borderline must-start running back. But if he’s active, Foreman would project as more of a low-end RB2/high-end flex play.

Wide Receiver

DJ Moore is putting up the numbers that everyone hoped for before the season started. He is coming off a game where he caught six passes for 152 yards and a touchdown. His 11 targets led the team, giving him a healthy 30% target share. Over the last three weeks alongside Walker, Moore has seen target shares of 33.3%, 47.6% and 30%, while his total target share of 40% during that span leads the NFL. Moore has been awesome over the last three weeks, ranking as the WR9 in fantasy, fifth in targets (27), 10th in receptions (16) and first in end zone targets (3). Moore now faces a Cincinnati secondary that will be without top defensive back Chidobe Awuzie and just allowed both Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones to both eclipse 80 receiving yards last week. 

While I don’t want to start him yet, we need to keep an eye on Terrace Marshall. The LSU product has had a slow start to his NFL career but with Carolina trading Robbie Anderson, an opportunity has arrived for the second-year wideout. Marshall was involved last week, catching four passes for 87 yards, while playing 74-of-80 snaps and running a route on about 95% of dropbacks. Marshall could have had a huge day, as Carolina called design fades in the end zone for him, as he saw three end zone targets, tied for the most among all wideouts in Week 8. 

Tight End

Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas are splitting snaps, and while Tremble doubled Thomas’ routes last week, this is an easy situation to avoid for fantasy football right now.

Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears

Total: 45.5, MIA -5
Pace: CHI: 27.91 sec/snap (20th), MIA: 28.36 sec/snap (24th)

What to watch for: Miami traded for Jeff Wilson and Bradley Chubb, while the Bears added Chase Claypool. Roquan Smith was also moved.

Bears

Quarterback

Since Week 5, Justin Fields has been the QB2 in fantasy, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game and 0.68 fantasy points per dropback. Fields is coming off another low-volume passing game, but he was efficient, sporting a career-best 74% completion rate, while throwing for 151 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also rushed for 60 yards and a score, giving him two consecutive games with a rushing touchdown. It was still frustrating to see Fields attempt just 23 passes in a game the Bears lost by 20 and trailed by at least eight points for 66 of 79 offensive plays, but that has been Chicago’s philosophy this season. Chicago is sporting the league’s lowest passing rate when trailing by eight or more points this season at 39.5%, while also only throwing the football 39.2% of the time when trailing by at least eight points in the second half of games. Still, Fields has been fantastic as of late and will continue to provide a strong floor due to his rushing potential. On the season, Fields ranks second among all signal callers in carries per game (9.5), red zone carries per game (2.0), rushing yards per game (53.0) and rushing touchdowns (3). The sophomore quarterback is in a good spot to continue thriving, as he hosts a Miami defense that is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers (19.5), as well as the seventh-most rushing yards per game to the position (24.0). 

Running Back

A few weeks ago, head coach Matt Eberflus said Chicago would go with a hot hand approach at running back. And I guess that has kind of been the case, but not entirely. In Week 7, David Montgomery once again started the game and the rotation was the same as it had been, with Montgomery playing two drives and then Khalil Herbert playing one. However, Herbert actually started the second half of that game, finishing with 12 carries to Montgomery’s 15. Last week, the rotation was fairly similar, but Herbert’s snap share dropped from 41% in Week 7 to 28%. He did see 16 carries to Montgomery’s 15 — when he is on the field, Herbert is touching the football. Like I stated last week, Herbert is no longer simply a backup running back who can only be started in fantasy if Montgomery is inactive. He has 28 carries over the last two weeks and has been much more efficient than Montgomery, ranking fourth in yards after contact per rush (4.1), fifth in runs of 10-plus yards (17) and 11th in runs of 15-plus yards (6). Because Chicago is running the football so much, both running backs can be started most weeks, especially since the game script really doesn’t dictate whether the Bears will run the football or not. This week’s matchup with Miami isn’t the easiest, as 23% of runs against the Dolphins have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the second-highest rate in football. But Montgomery should be in line for 15-18 touches, with Herbert seeing 12-14, at the minimum. 

Wide Receiver

While the passing volume has been low, Darnell Mooney has been dominating this team in targets, sporting the league’s 11th-highest target share (28.5%) and fourth-highest air yards share (41.3%). However, he’ll have more competition for targets with the addition of Chase Claypool. It’ll be interesting to see how Chicago uses their top two wide receivers, as Mooney had already seen an uptick in usage from the slot, going from a 43.6% slot rate in 2021 to just under 60% this season. Of course, Chase Claypool had been primarily playing out of the slot in Pittsburgh with the addition of George Pickens, lining up on the inside at the eighth-highest rate in the league (79.1%). Mooney’s floor has been much higher as of late, posting at least 50 receiving yards in each of his past five games but if he loses a few targets per game, that is massive considering how little this offense throws the football to start with. I also think we could see Mooney play outside more, which is an area he’s proven he can make plays in, but it does potentially lower his floor. He is still the Bears wideout to start but is a low-end WR3.

Meanwhile, I wouldn’t start Claypool in his first game with his new team, but he should absolutely help Fields and this passing game. Overall, this move helps Claypool’s fantasy potential, as he should operate as, at worst, the 1B in this offense.

Tight End

After 57 years, Cole Kmet finally scored a touchdown.

OK, so maybe I exaggerated a bit, but it sure felt like that long, especially since I was high on Kmet as a breakout tight end entering the last two seasons. Of course, Kmet still only caught two passes for 11 yards in the game and his already low floor for targets and receptions is even lower with Claypool in town. Kmet remains a very uninspiring fantasy tight end.

Dolphins

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa is coming off a near flawless game against the Lions, completing 29-of-36 passes for 382 yards and three touchdowns. He continues to thrive alongside his elite wide receivers in Mike McDaniel’s offense, as just 10.8% of his pass attempts this season have been into tight windows, the fifth-lowest rate in the league. In 2021, however, that number was at 19.3%, which led the league, so the addition of an elite wideout in Tyreek Hill and a creative, innovative play-caller who is implementing more pre-snap motion than anyone in football is working wonders for Tagovailoa’s progression. Overall, Chicago’s passing defense looks good, and there is no denying that they are better at defending the pass than the run. However, they have faced the likes of Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Mac Jones/Bailey Zappe and Davis Mills and when they faced above-average fantasy signal callers, they allowed two top-five finishes at the position. They have also traded edge rusher Robert Quinn and linebacker Roquan Smith over the last week or so. Consider Tua a low-end QB1 this week.

Running Back

Miami just traded for Jeff Wilson, who is obviously very familiar with McDaniel’s scheme, as the two were together in San Francisco when McDaniel was the team’s run game coordinator. I think this move was more about upgrading from Chase Edmonds, who has been arguably the least efficient running back in the NFL this season. I’d still expect Raheem Mostert to get most of the work, at least this week, though Wilson could likely pick up this offensive playbook very quickly. Still, Mostert projects as the lead back and while he was seemingly the only Dolphin to not have a good fantasy outing last week, he still recorded 15 touches. He’s now averaging a healthy 17.2 touches per game over his last five games and gets a strong matchup with a run funnel Bears defense that no longer has Roquan Smith roaming the middle. 45% of the yardage against Chicago has come on the ground this season, the second-highest rate in football, while a league-leading 63.6% of the touchdowns against the Bears have come via the run. We just saw Tony Pollard destroy this defense to the tune of 131 yards and three touchdowns on 14 carries, as the Bears are allowing 2.71 yards before first contact this year, the eighth-worst rate in football. 

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle once again dominated last week. Hill hauled in 12-of-14 targets for 188 yards, while Waddle caught eight passes for 106 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Hill is currently on pace to finish with more receiving yards than Cooper Kupp had a season ago, as he’s recorded at least 150 receiving yards in four different games already. He has also seen double-digit targets in seven of eight games this season, and in the one game he didn’t see 10-plus targets, Tua was inactive. For the season, Hill is being targeted on 35% of his routes, the highest rate among all wide receivers with at least 30 routes this season, while his 4.1 air yards per route run rank fourth in the league. Hill’s 41 first-read targets are the most in football through eight weeks and he should continue to dominate this weekend. Of course, you are obviously starting Waddle, too, as he and Hill are currently accounting for 55% of Miami’s targets, 58% of their receptions and nearly 70% of their receiving yards this season. Waddle does have the more difficult individual matchup this week, facing Jaylon Johnson, but you are obviously still starting him.

Tight End

Mike Gesicki found the end zone last week, but with Durham Smythe healthier, Gesicki’s playing time and involvement went down. He played 46% of the snaps on Sunday, his lowest snap share in a game since Week 4, while running a route on just 23-of-40 (57%) of dropbacks. Smythe and Gesicki actually both played 31 snaps and while he’s still a very viable tight end with touchdown upside each week, this would be a good time to see if you could sell high after scoring three touchdowns over the past three weeks.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Total: 49.5, GB -3.5
Pace: DET: 28.3 sec/snap (22nd), GB: 29.31 sec/snap (27th)

What to watch for: Allen Lazard missed last week’s game but is practicing. LB De’Vondre Campbell is questionable to play. For Detroit, T.J. Hockenson has been traded to Minnesota.

Lions

Quarterback

After consecutive poor outings, Jared Goff got back on track last week against Miami, passing for 321 yards and a touchdown. Goff attempted 37 passes, his fifth game with at least 35 passes this season, as Detroit’s defense continues to struggle. Goff will now host a Green Bay defense that just limited Josh Allen to a 52% completion rate, 218 passing yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions last week. He’ll also have to face this defense (and the rest of defenses) without tight end T.J. Hockenson, who has been traded to Minnesota. The Packers have had a very strong pass defense this season, surrendering the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (12.4), making Goff a middling QB2 in this NFC North matchup. 

Running Back

D’Andre Swift finally returned to the lineup last week, his first outing since Week 3. He did find the end zone but still isn’t 100% healthy, as he continues to deal with both shoulder and ankle injuries. In his first game back, Swift logged a healthy 55% of the snaps but only touched the ball 10 times, as he made most of his impact in the passing game, hauling in all five of his targets for 27 yards and a score. Hopefully his workload improves going forward, as Jamaal Williams handled 13 touchdowns, while scoring two more short-yardage touchdowns. Williams is tied for the league-lead in carries from inside the 5-yard line (12), and regardless of whether Swift has been healthy, that role hasn’t changed for the veteran running back. Green Bay’s run defense is very vulnerable, as nearly 14% of the runs against this unit have gone for 10 or more yards this season, the eighth-highest rate in the league. 44.7% of the yardage against the Packers this year have come via the run, the third-highest rate in football, so we should see 10-12 touches from Williams once again, keeping him on the flex radar. Swift, meanwhile, is an upside RB2, though I have a little concern about whether the Lions give him the 16-18 touches he saw back in Week 1.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown got back to seeing double-digit targets last week, as he hauled in 7-of-10 targets for 69 yards. Of course, he had been dealing with injuries that have limited his snaps, but as we know, when St. Brown is healthy, he is an easy top-15 wide receiver. The volume was already elite, and now it could even climb a bit with Hockenson no longer on the team. St. Brown has seen double-digit targets in all but one of his contests where he played a full allotment of snaps and if the Lions have to continue throwing the football a lot, he’ll have upside to see 12-14 targets most weeks. You are obviously starting him.

Tight End

With Hockenson now in Minnesota, opportunities will open up for Brock Wright and James Mitchell to see a larger role in this offense. Still, I am not looking his way in any fantasy format outside of a potential value play in DFS contests.

Packers

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have lost four consecutive games. It sounds weird to say, but this is a bad football team right now. Rodgers’ yardage totals have been awful, as his season-high for passing yards in a game this year is 255, and he’s averaging just 225 per game on the year. There is very little downfield passing in this offense right now — Rodgers is averaging just 4.3 completed air yards per completion, the second-lowest mark among qualified signal callers. 24.8% of Rodgers’ pass attempts have come behind the line of scrimmage, the second-highest rate in the league through eight weeks, as Green Bay is living off screens and quick passes off RPO right now. It is clear Rodgers is no longer an elite fantasy quarterback, but he could have an elite fantasy outing against Detroit’s lowly defense. The Lions are coughing up the most points per drive (2.77), as well as the second-most yards (39.8) and fifth-most plays per drive (6.3), while teams are scoring points on a league-leading 47.3% of drives against Detroit. Meanwhile, no team is coughing up more yards per pass attempt (8.4) or a higher aDOT (9.3 yards) than the Lions. Rodgers is a top-12 quarterback this week.

Running Back

Don’t look now but over the last two weeks, Aaron Jones is finally seeing the usage we have been hoping for. Since Week 7, Jones is averaging 20.5 touches per game, but more importantly, he has been targeted 15 times during that span, while hauling in 13 passes. The uptick in work in the passing game is what can get Jones back into top-10 status among running backs, while he’s logged 74% and 67% of the snaps over the last two weeks. He’s an obvious must-start running back, especially against the Lions, who are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (26.5), while also allowing a league-leading 1.43 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. AJ Dillon, meanwhile, has seen his playing time and usage come down over the last two weeks but did see 11 touches last week, which would be enough to warrant flex consideration against a defense as bad as the Lions.

Wide Receiver

Allen Lazard missed Week 8 with a shoulder injury but did practice to start the week. If he is active, I am starting Lazard as a top-30 fantasy wide receiver, as he has recorded either 50 yards or a touchdown in every game this season. Lazard has seen at least six targets in each of his last five games and is the clear top target in the red zone for Rodgers. If he is unable to play, I think you could go back to Romeo Doubs as a flex play/WR3 in deeper leagues. He’s seen plenty of the downfield targets from Rodgers in this offense and faces a Lions defense that is allowing 11.7 yards per completion this season, the second-highest mark in the league. 

Tight End

Robert Tonyan is tough to get right this season. His snaps are trending in the right direction, however, as he has logged 63%, 56% and then a season-high 74% of the snaps last week, while running a route on 69% of dropbacks. He saw six targets and had a touchdown called back due to offensive pass interference. Tonyan is still averaging six receptions and over 50 yards per game over his last three games and gets a Lions defense that is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (15.3). 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 48, LV -1.5
Pace: JAC: 26.2 sec/snap (3rd), LV: 27.82 sec/snap (17th)

What to watch for: Darren Waller has missed each of the last two games with a hamstring injury.

Jaguars

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence has been a bit all over the place. Over the last two weeks, Lawrence has completed just 40-of-74 passes for 443 yards and one touchdown. He has scored one or zero touchdowns in four different games this season, as Lawrence continues to struggle in the red zone. In fact, the sophomore signal caller is completing just 45% of passes from inside the 10-yard line and 43.9% of passes from inside the red zone, the sixth-lowest rate in the league. Perhaps a matchup with the Raiders is what he needs to get back on track, as Las Vegas is allowing touchdowns on 17-of-23 (74%) red zone trips this season, the second-worst rate in the league. The Raiders have also been the fourth-worst third down defense, allowing opponents to convert 46% of the time this season. They have allowed all but one quarterback against them to finish as a top-12 fantasy quarterback this season, while coughing up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (21.5). I’d feel pretty good about starting Lawrence this week.

I’d start Lawrence over: Tom Brady, Justin Herbert (if Keenan Allen sits)

Running Back

In his first game as the unquestioned RB1 in Jacksonville, Travis Etienne was brilliant, rushing for 156 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries against the Broncos. Etienne handled 27-of-34 running back touches for Jacksonville, while playing 79% of the snaps. He also played all eight snaps at the goal line, converting a touchdown from a few yards out. Etienne also ran a route on 66% of dropbacks and has been one of the most efficient running backs in all of football. Despite ranking just 19th in carries (92), Etienne is 11th in missed tackles forced (25), 10th in runs of 10-plus yards (14) and fourth in runs of 15-plus yards (9). His 6.7 yards per touch rank fourth in all of football and he has obviously emerged as a must-start running back who is a borderline top-10 player the rest of the season. A matchup with the Raiders is outstanding, as Las Vegas just allowed three touchdowns to Alvin Kamara last week and are now allowing the fourth-most fantasy points (26.9), second-most targets (9.4), second-most receptions (7.4) and second-most receiving yards (61.1) per game to opposing backfields on the year. 

Wide Receiver

With Jacksonville’s entire passing game struggling last week, the wide receivers couldn’t come through. Christian Kirk caught just 3-of-7 targets for 40 yards against Denver and has now been under 40 receiving yards in three of his last four games. Kirk still projects the best among the Jacksonville pass-catchers, especially against a Raiders defense that has struggled to defend slot receivers for much of the season, which bodes well for Kirk, who is lining up out of the slot 74% of the time this year, the 12th-highest rate in the league. He’s a very strong WR3 ahead of this strong matchup, as he’ll draw coverage from Amik Robertson, who is allowing a healthy 0.25 fantasy points per coverage route this season, as well as a 75% catch rate.

Zay Jones remains a viable flex play, especially in a week with six teams on bye. Jones was only targeted three times last week but that was against a Denver secondary that can shut down perimeter wide receivers. Jones also quietly leads this team with eight end zone targets, a number that is good for sixth most. 

Tight End

Evan Engram scored his first touchdown of the season last week, hauling in four passes for 55 yards. Engram has been rock solid for much of the season, especially lately, where he has seen at least six targets, caught at least four passes and recorded at least 40 receiving yards in each of his last four games. Engram’s 245 routes run rank fourth among all tight ends this year and the veteran tight end has set season-highs in snap share each of the last two weeks (85%, 93%). Building plenty of momentum, Engram now faces a Raiders defense that allows the third-most fantasy points (16.2) and third-most touchdowns (0.86) per game to opposing tight ends. Their six touchdowns allowed to the tight end position are the third-most in football. Engram is a top-12 tight end this week and quite possibly the rest of the season.

Raiders

Quarterback

Yikes.

No team in the NFL was more disappointing than the Raiders last week, who were shut out in New Orleans. They didn’t even cross midfield until late in the fourth quarter, the only time they accomplished the “feat” all game long. Derek Carr finished the day with 101 scoreless yards and an interception. It was a complete collapse by the Raiders, so we’ll see if they can get back on track in Jacksonville. This is a league-average matchup, as the Jaguars are right in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks but like Lawrence, Carr also continues to struggle in the red zone, completing just 37.1% of passes, the worst rate in the league among qualified signal callers. Carr is a high-end QB2 for me this week.

Running Back

After an insane stretch of games, Josh Jacobs came back down to earth last week, mostly due to the ineptitude of the team’s offense overall, touching 12 times for 54 yards. That said, Jacobs is still a must-start running back. His 83% opportunity share trails only Saquon Barkley this season, and Jacobs is averaging 20.4 touches per game through seven contests. Jacksonville has been allowing a ton of production to running backs as of late, allowing a lead running back to find the end zone in four of the last five games. Prior to last week’s debacle, Jacobs had rushed for at least 140 yards and one score in three consecutive games and should return to his 22-25 touches. 

RBs vs. Jacksonville since Week 4

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams was dealing with the flu throughout last week and while he did play, he only caught one pass for three yards. Who knows if Adams was 100% but he wasn’t going to do much in this offense regardless, as the Raiders just couldn’t move the football. Adams is still sporting a strong 28.8% target share on the year, the eighth-highest rate among wide receivers, though it has been odd to see him record fewer than 40 receiving yards in three different games. Adams was limited to start the week, which tells me he probably wasn’t fully healthy last week. Hopefully he can fully recover from this illness. Of course, you are still starting him, especially against a Jacksonville pass defense that is surrendering the second-most passing touchdowns off deep passes (4). 

Hunter Renfrow is tough to start right now. Even without Darren Waller over the past two weeks, Renfrow has caught a combined four passes for 61 yards and zero touchdowns. He has yet to find the end zone this season, while his season high in PPR fantasy points in a game is 11.9. 

Tight End

Foster Moreau was the most productive Raiders pass-catcher Sunday, hauling in 6-of-9 targets for 31 yards. He once again drew the start with Darren Waller sidelined, logging 100% of the snaps. One week after playing 96% of the snaps. Moreau ran a route on 40-of-43 dropbacks (93%) and has now seen a healthy 14 targets over the last two weeks. If Waller remains sidelined in Week 9, Moreau will once again be a borderline top-15 fantasy tight end.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Total: 46.5, BUF -12.5
Pace: NYJ: 27.02 sec/snap (9th), BUF: 27.7 sec/snap (15th)

What to watch for: The Bills traded for RB Nyheim Hines Tuesday.

Jets

Quarterback

Zach Wilson is coming off an awful start against New England, completing just 20-of-41 passes for 355 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. The 41 pass attempts were easily a season-high for Wilson, who has been asked to manage the game for most of the year. It is unlikely he’ll be able to do that this week, as the Jets are huge underdogs against the Bills. Still, I wouldn’t be comfortable starting him against a Buffalo defense that can generate pressure at an elite rate without blitzing, which is a recipe for disaster for most quarterbacks. Buffalo is also allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (12.2), while also allowing a 3.0% passing touchdown rate, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.

Running Back

In the first week without Breece Hall and with James Robinson, Michael Carter got the start, logging 56% of the snaps and touching the football 11 times for 35 yards. The seven targets were nice but with the Jets having to throw most of the second half, we saw more Ty Johnson than anyone would like to see, as he played over 30% of the snaps and played over 80% of the third-down snaps. You’d expect Robinson to be more involved going forward but this might be a second consecutive gamescript where we see the Jets chasing points. Carter and Robinson are low-upside flex plays in deep leagues.

Wide Receiver

Corey Davis missed last week’s game with a knee injury. Even with Davis sidelined, Elijah Moore, who was active, only played 10 offensive snaps, as Denzel Mims took Davis’ role in the offense. Garrett Wilson, meanwhile, played over 88% of the snaps and ran a route on 98% of dropbacks, finishing the game with 115 yards on six receptions. Wilson played more on the perimeter in this game, which presented him with more upside. He’s been more efficient when lined up out wide this season, which is where he lined up 69% of the time this past weekend. This is a tough matchup, but if Davis — who has been Wilson’s No. 1 receiver dating back to last year — remains sidelined, Garrett Wilson would be a fine WR3, especially with it looking like Moore is not part of the offense at the moment. 

Tight End

Tyler Conklin’s playing time had come down for a few weeks, but over the last two games, he has played 75% of the snaps. He is coming off a great game against the Patriots, hauling in 6-of-10 targets for 79 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Conklin benefited from the absence of Davis and the benching of Moore, as well as the uptick in passing for the Jets. C.J. Uzomah had been cutting into his playing time as of late, as the Jets have been insanely run-heavy. From Weeks 5-7, Uzomah has ranked fourth among tight ends with 73 run-blocking snaps but in games where the Jets will have to throw the football (like this one), Conklin should be on the field more and running plenty of routes.

Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen appeared to be on his way to a vintage massive Josh Allen performance last Sunday night, and then the second half happened.

Allen was pretty bad in the second half against Green Bay, tossing a pair of interceptions and failing to find the end zone. He tried to make too many plays that weren’t there and ultimately finished with his worst outing of the season, completing just 13-of-25 passes for 218 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Of course, Allen also made some insane plays, including a gorgeous 53-yard pass to Stefon Diggs. Still the fantasy QB1, Allen faces an impressive Jets defense that ranks third in the NFL in pressure rate (26.4%), as well as the eighth-lowest passing touchdown rate (3.2%). This is actually a pretty tough matchup for opposing quarterbacks, though that obviously means nothing since you are not sitting Allen at any time ever. 

Running Back

The Bills have been linked to running backs for a while now, so you knew that the trade deadline would be an interesting one for them. And while it wasn’t a massive move, the Bills did address the position on Tuesday, trading for former Colts running back Nyheim Hines. The Bills have been looking to add a strong pass-catching running back for a while now, as they were linked to Chase Edmonds, Christian McCaffrey and nearly signed J.D. McKissic this offseason. With Zack Moss being traded to Indianapolis, Buffalo’s backfield will consist of Devin Singletary, Hines and James Cook. 

Singletary has been the clear lead running back this season, especially in competitive games. In the somewhat close games, they have played this year, Singletary has logged 73%, 88%, 86% and 75% of the snaps. In those games, he is averaging a healthy 17.2 touches per game. The surprising development has been Singletary’s solid passing game usage, as he currently ranks fifth among running backs in routes run (187). It will be interesting to see how much Hines’ presence impacts that, as he’s an elite pass-catcher. However, I don’t think his arrival necessarily means that Singletary’s playing time is immediately in jeopardy, as we could legitimately see Hines play meaningful snaps out of the slot. Through eight weeks in Indianapolis, Hines has operated out of the slot 21.3% of the time, the second-highest rate among running backs. With Jamison Crowder sidelined, Isaiah McKenzie struggling with consistency and Khalil Shakir unproven, I could see Hines play some slot receiver for Buffalo, while Singletary stays on the field. Of course, there is still a path to Hines taking Singletary off the field on most third downs, so while I don’t exactly think his arrival is good news for Singletary’s fantasy potential, I don’t believe it is this massive downgrade either. It is, however, great for Josh Allen. Singletary is a high-end RB3 in this spot, and Hines should obviously be added in any leagues he was dropped.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs posted his third consecutive 100-yard, one-touchdown came Sunday, his fifth such game of the season. Diggs is simply one of the safest players in fantasy football, seeing double-digit targets in four games, while averaging an awesome 109.1 receiving yards per game. The Jets secondary has been phenomenal this season, as Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed have formed one of the top defensive back duos in all of football. Gardner has yet to allow a touchdown in coverage this season and it’ll be fun to watch him matchup with Diggs. Of course, Diggs is an obvious, every-week, top-five wideout.

Gabe Davis, however, isn’t as much of a guarantee. We know the ceiling is massive, as Davis has posted fantasy totals of 19.0, 16.4 and 32.1 fantasy points this year. The problem is the floor is insanely low, as he’s also posted totals of 2.3, 6.7 and 5.5 fantasy points. Davis’ season-high in targets this year is seven, and he is being targeted on just 15% of his routes so far this season. Unless you are loaded at wide receiver, it is difficult to place that kind of upside on your bench, as Davis ranks third among wideouts in yards per target (13.06) and first in yards per reception (26.1). But a matchup against Reed and Gardner is tough, as they have both allowed just 0.12 fantasy points per coverage route this season, while Gardner is allowing just 7.7 yards per reception, the sixth-best mark among qualified defensive backs. Don’t be surprised if we see an underwhelming game from Davis here.

Tight End

Dawson Knox has now found the end zone in consecutive games, though the usage is still low, seeing just six total targets during that span. Many tight ends in fantasy are touchdown dependent and if choosing one, you definitely will side with the tight end playing with Josh Allen, but Knox simply isn’t running enough routes or seeing enough consistent work to warrant anything more than TE2 consideration. If he finds the end zone, you’ll be thrilled, but if he doesn’t, you’ll be lucky to get more than seven or eight points.

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

Total: 39.5, NE -5.5
Pace: NE: 29.12 sec/snap (26th), IND: 26.72 sec/snap (6th)

What to watch for: Nyheim Hines has been traded to Buffalo. 

Patriots

Quarterback

Mac Jones returned to his full-time role as the Patriots starting quarterback last week. Despite getting the win, he played poorly. He threw for 194 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and he had an awful pick-six that was called back due to a roughing the passer penalty. Jones remains a very low-upside fantasy option, as he’s yet to score multiple touchdowns in a game this season. You can throw on the Colts, as they are allowing a 68.6% completion rate on the year, the seventh-highest rate in football, but Jones is nothing more than a QB2 in superflex formats.

Running Back

Damien Harris has been back in the lineup for two weeks now. In Week 7, Harris logged just 17% of the snaps and recorded just four touches, but those numbers went up to 41% and 13 touches this past weekend. Harris actually started the game for New England, though Rhamondre Stevenson still logged a healthy 63% of the snaps and touched the ball 23 times, including seven receptions. The two essentially split early-down snaps, while Stevenson dominated third downs and two-minute drill. Indianapolis has been a strong run defense this season, but they are allowing the seventh-most receptions per game to opposing backfields (5.9), as well as the fourth-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (47.8). Since Week 4, Stevenson has been heavily involved in the passing game, ranking fourth among running backs in target share during that span (20.1%). He’s still a rock solid RB2 in PPR formats, while Harris has gotten back to flex consideration, though this matchup definitely leans toward Stevenson.

Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers has somehow, some way, scored a touchdown in back-to-back games. He caught nine passes last week while seeing 12 targets, good for a 37.5% target share. Meyers remains the clear WR1 in New England and the only pass-catcher you should be considering in fantasy right now, especially with DeVante Parker dealing with an injury. Meyers has been targeted on a healthy 26% of his routes so far this season and gets a solid matchup with the Colts, who are more vulnerable in the slot, which is where Meyers is lining up nearly 73% of the time this season. Kenny Moore is allowing 0.26 fantasy points per coverage route and a 72% catch rate so far this season. Meyers is a rock-solid WR3 with a relatively high floor.

Tight End

After logging 85% of the snaps in Week 7, Hunter Henry’s snap share dropped to 64% last week. He caught just one pass for the second consecutive week, while Jonnu Smith was targeted four times and ran 23 routes to Henry’s 25. Henry was struggling to post consistent fantasy numbers when he was a full-time player, but now he’s running a route on less than 60% of dropbacks, which makes him very tough to trust.

Colts

Quarterback

Sam Ehlinger made his first career start last week, completing 17-of-23 passes for 201 yards. After emerging as one of the fastest, pass-heaviest offenses in Weeks 6-7, the Colts went with a more conservative approach last week, as they averaged 30 seconds per snap (22nd), sporting a 46.3% pass rate. Ehlinger only rushed for 15 yards on six attempts, something that could improve considering he flirted with 400 rushing yards every year in college. Regardless, this is a situation to avoid for fantasy football, especially against a solid New England pass defense.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor apparently aggravated his ankle injury last week — he did return to the game, but he didn’t practice Wednesday and is questionable for Sunday. Taylor rushed for 76 yards on 16 carries but was only targeted once in the passing game. With Nyheim Hines now in Buffalo, if Taylor is ruled out, Deon Jackson will become a borderline top-15 running back for Week 9. In his lone start of the season, Jackson totaled 121 scrimmage yards and a score on 22 touches in Week 6, and that was while missing most of the fourth quarter. He’s unlikely to see 10 targets again, but he would be in line for 20-plus touches against a Patriots run defense that is allowing 126 rushing yards per game this year, the 11th-most in football. Of course, if Taylor suits up, I am starting him, though I am not expecting him to post top-five numbers in this offense, especially if he isn’t 100% healthy.

Wide Receiver

If the Colts are going back to establishing the run with a young quarterback leading the charge, Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce aren’t going to look as good. Pittman still led the team in targets in Ehlinger’s first career start (9), sporting a strong 39% target share. He has seen at least nine targets in all but two games this season but given the state of this offense, Pittman is shaping up as more of a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 ahead of a matchup with the Patriots. Pierce, meanwhile, caught three passes for 65 yards, with most of his damage coming from a 47-yard reception. Both he and Campbell are desperation flex plays for the time being.

Tight End

No thank you.

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Commanders

Total: 43.5, MIN -3.5
Pace: WAS: 28.2 sec/snap (21st), MIN: 26.7 sec/snap (7th)

What to watch for: The Vikings traded for T.J. Hockenson. Jahan Dotson will likely remain sidelined for Washington, though Chase Young could make his season debut.

Commanders

Quarterback

During his two starts this season, Taylor Heinicke is actually averaging a solid 19.25 fantasy points per game. Heinicke completed 23-of-31 passes for 279 yards and a touchdown Sunday, while adding 29 rushing yards and an additional score. There have been some occasional deep passing plays to Terry McLaurin, but for the most part, Heinicke has been pretty conservative as of late, ranking 30th in aDOT (6.6 yards) and 29th in deep passing rate (6.3%) over the last two weeks. He’s a viable streaming option against a Minnesota pass defense that is allowing the second-most yards per pass attempt on the year (8.2). 31.1% of Heinicke’s dropbacks have come off play-action over the last two weeks, the 10th-highest rate in football and now he faces a Vikings defense that is coughing up the fourth-highest yards per attempt (9.47), third-highest completion rate (75%) and sixth-highest yards per completion (13.9) off play-action this season.

Running Back

This backfield is an absolute mess for fantasy right now.

After a 20-carry outing in Week 7, Brian Robinson touched the ball just eight times Sunday, as Antonio Gibson drew the start at running back. Gibson recorded 14 touches, doing most of his damage off seven receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown. He logged 36% of the snaps, tied with J.D. McKissic for the highest rate among running backs, while Robinson played just 25% of the snaps. Gibson ended up out-snapping Robinson on early downs, while McKissic unsurprisingly led the way in the two-minute drill, while playing every third-down snap. If I can help it, I’d try avoiding this backfield for fantasy but if I were forced to start a Washington running back, it would be Gibson, who seems likely to see the best combination of carries and targets right now. However, he is extremely volatile and is unlikely to catch a touchdown pass for the third consecutive week.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin was fantastic last week, catching six passes for 113 yards. He recorded receptions of 42 and 33 yards and was once again Heinicke’s favorite target, seeing a team-high eight targets, the second straight week he led the team in targets. In Heinicke’s two starts, McLaurin is sporting a solid 26% target share, while seeing eight targets in both contests. McLaurin now ranks fourth in the NFL in deep targets with 15, while his two deep touchdown catches are tied for the fifth-most in the league. 28% of his targets have come 20-plus yards down the field this season, the fifth-highest rate among pass-catchers with at least 20 targets on the year. He now faces a Minnesota pass defense that allows the second-most yards per pass attempt on the year (8.2). Minnesota plays as much zone defense as anyone, which actually makes this spot slightly less appealing for McLaurin, who, according to Player Profiler, is sporting a 20.5% target rate against man coverage, but 14.9% against zone. But when he sees man coverage here, he should thrive, especially against Cameron Dantzler, who is allowing 0.27 fantasy points per coverage route this year, along with a 79% catch rate. McLaurin is a high-upside WR2.

Curtis Samuel has slowed down lately, as he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2. And his receptions have come down, averaging just four receptions per game over his last four games. His target share has come down over the last two weeks with Heinicke under center, sitting at 19.3%. The good news, however, is that the usage in the backfield has come back, as Samuel has seen nine carries over the last two weeks, while lining up out of the backfield on eight snaps. Facing a zone-heavy team would favor Samuel, who operates in the middle of the field, lining up out of the slot just over 70% of the time. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s slot defensive back Chandon Sullivan is allowing a whopping 0.31 fantasy points per coverage route this season to go along with an 83% catch rate. No player in football has allowed more receiving yards in slot coverage this season than Sullivan (446), while also allowing a 122.9 passer rating.

Tight End

Logan Thomas returned from a calf injury last week, playing 56% of the snaps, though he failed to see a target. He essentially split time with Armani Rogers, while John Bates also got onto the field for around 33% of the snaps. A matchup with Minnesota is favorable for tight ends, as the Vikings are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points (14.9) and sixth-most touchdowns per game (0.57) to opposing tight ends this year, but Thomas is extremely risky.

Vikings

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins is coming off his second consecutive game with multiple touchdown passes, but it has been a strange season for the veteran signal caller. A lot of his underlying metrics are way down, but he’s still been a strong fantasy signal caller and should continue to produce against a weak Washington secondary. The Commanders are allowing the fourth-highest passing touchdown rate in the league (5.6%), as well as the sixth-highest yards per pass attempt (7.5%). Washington is also allowing the third-highest aDOT in football (9.1 yards) to go along with the seventh-most air yards (1,102), which presents Cousins with splash play ability here. He’s a low-end QB1 this weekend.

Running Back

Dalvin Cook is coming off a great game against the Cardinals, rushing for 111 yards and a score on 20 touches, adding five receptions for 30 yards. He became the first player to rush for 100 yards against Arizona in over a year and we saw him separate himself from Alexander Mattison a bit last week, as he played more on passing and third downs. As expected, the touchdowns have come back for Cook, who has now found the end zone in each of his last three games. He’s been far more efficient from inside the 10-yard line this season and although Washington’s run defense has been very strong this season, Cook remains in line for 20-22 touches each week. You are obviously starting him.

Wide Receiver

You are also obviously starting Justin Jefferson, who was two yards away from posting his fourth consecutive 100-yard outing last week. Jefferson is now sporting a strong 29.4% target share on the season (seventh), while handling 39.2% of Minnesota’s air yards (seventh) and now faces a Washington pass defense that is coughing up the fourth-most receiving yards on deep passes (519), while 14% of the pass attempts against the Commanders this season have gone 20-plus yards down the field, tied for the highest rate in football. Three wideouts have recorded at least 100 receiving yards against Washington this season. Look for Jefferson to make it four.

Adam Thielen once again saw seven targets on Sunday, giving him at least seven looks in every single game since Week 2. And although he failed to find the end zone, the six catches and 67 receiving yards presented a higher floor than we have grown accustomed to seeing in games where Thielen doesn’t score a touchdown. He’s still yet to reach 70 yards in a game this year but remains a high-end WR3 against the Commanders, who are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the year.

Tight End

With so many trades happening, we have seen a decent sample of players playing limited snaps in their first game with their new team. This makes me hesitant to roll out T.J. Hockenson as a guaranteed top-seven fantasy tight end this week, as he’ll be more touchdown dependent than most tight ends are, due to the likely limited snap share. Irv Smith is going to miss a lot of time, which makes Hockenson the clear TE1 in this offense once he is fully acclimated. We could see him be more efficient in this offense, but Hockenson failed to see tremendous volume in a banged-up Lions offense, only posting one useful fantasy performance through the first eight weeks of the season. 

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Total: 49.5, ARI -2
Pace: ARI: 25.8 sec/snap (1st), SEA: 27.23 sec/snap (11th)

What to watch for: James Conner (ribs) hasn’t played since Week 5. We’ll see if he returns to the lineup this week. Darrel Williams (hip) has been placed on IR.

Cardinals

Quarterback

Kyler Murray is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 326 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. With Arizona trailing for most of the game, Murray attempted 44 passes in the game. The first half continues to be a nightmare for Murray, which means you probably shouldn’t watch Arizona games if you are using him. But he’s still a must-start fantasy signal caller this week, despite the fact Seattle’s pass defense has been improved as of late and limited Murray to 222 scoreless yards back in Week 6. The downfield passing still isn’t quite there for Murray, who is sporting the sixth-lowest intended air yards per attempt (6.6) and third-lowest completed air yards per pass attempt (2.0), however, his only two games of the season with at least 7.0 yards per attempt have come during the last two weeks, coinciding with the return of DeAndre Hopkins. We did see Murray rush for 100 yards the last time these teams played, while Seattle is allowing nearly 22 rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers this season, good for the ninth most in the league. 

Running Back

Darrel Williams returned to the Arizona lineup last week. It didn’t have a huge impact on Eno Benjamin, who still played around 75% of the snaps, though he only touched the ball 13 times. Williams essentially took Keontay Ingram’s role as the backup, but now he’s been placed on injured reserve, so if James Conner can’t return, Benjamin should be in line for 15-plus touches against a Seattle run defense that is coughing up the fifth-most rushing yards per game on the year (140.8). Only the Bears, Lions and Browns have allowed more rushing touchdowns than Seattle this season (11), while the Seahawks are also surrendering the sixth-most receptions (6.0) and fifth-most receiving yards (47.0) per game to opposing backfields. If Conner is back in the lineup, however, Benjamin can return to fantasy benches, while Conner would project as a risky RB2.

Wide Receiver

In two games since making his season debut, DeAndre Hopkins has caught 22-of-27 targets for 262 yards and a touchdown. His 37.5% target share during that span is the second-highest rate in all of football, behind only Tyreek Hill, while Hopkins has been targeted on nearly 38% of his routes run. In Week 7, Hopkins’ debut, we saw the Cardinals finally move him around the formation, as he lined up in the slot 42.4% of the time, which was way up from his 2021 slot rate of just 14.9%. However, in Week 8, Hopkins returned to primarily lining up on the left side of the formation, operating there 83% of the time. For reference, Hopkins lined up as the left wide receiver around 75% of the time in 2021. Regardless, Hopkins is still getting all of the targets wherever he is on the field but against a Seattle team that has quietly been very good against perimeter wide receivers, it would certainly be nice to see him get back to playing 30-40% of his snaps from the slot. 

Rondale Moore is coming off a strong game last week, hauling in 7-of-8 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. Moore didn’t return to a full-time slot role, as he lined up on the inside around 52% of the time last week, but it is better than his 17.6% slot rate from Week 7. If A.J. Green or Robbie Anderson start to play more, that will push Moore inside more, but he’s also seeing more downfield targets when lined up on the outside. He’s the clear WR2 right now and gets a favorable matchup against a Seattle secondary that is more vulnerable to slot wide receivers. Rookie defensive back Coby Bryant has been better as of late but is still allowing a healthy 0.26 fantasy points per coverage route this season. He’s also allowed the eighth-most receptions (21) and ninth-most yards (236) in slot coverage, as well as two touchdowns and a 11.5 passer rating.

Tight End

The return of Hopkins has really hurt Zach Ertz, who found the end zone last week but has only been targeted nine times over the last two games. In the two weeks since Hopkins’ return, Ertz is sporting a 12.5% target share and dating back to last season, the veteran tight end is averaging 4.5 targets, 3.1 receptions, 35.8 receiving yards and 8.8 fantasy points per game with Hopkins in the lineup, compared to nine targets, 6.1 receptions, 59.1 receiving yards and 13.7 PPR points per game in seven contests alongside Hopkins. At least Ertz ranks 13th among all players and third among tight ends in red zone targets with 16, while the matchup is elite, as the Seahawks are allowing the most fantasy points (20.6) and receiving yards per game (82.1) to opposing tight ends this season. I’m still starting Ertz is a top-10 tight end, but his floor isn’t nearly as high as it was to start the year.

Seahawks

Quarterback

Geno Smith completed 23-of-34 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns Sunday, giving him six multi-touchdown games on the year. He continues to have a stellar season and now gets a rematch with an Arizona defense that limited him to 197 yards and zero touchdowns back in Week 6. Arizona’s pass defense has been really good over the last few weeks, as they have done a terrific job of limiting the deep ball. On the season, teams are completing just 23% of deep passes against Arizona this season, the fifth-lowest rate in the league, while only 8% of pass attempts against the Cardinals have come 20-plus yards down the field, tied for the second-lowest rate in football. We know Arizona is going to blitz early and often, sporting the league’s second-highest blitz rate at 37.3%. Smith has been strong against the blitz this year, ranking fifteen completion rate (70%) and 10th in passing yards (529), though his yards per attempt drops from 8.3 when he’s not blitzed to 6.6 when he is. When these teams last met, Arizona blitzed Smith on 42% of his dropbacks, averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt in the split. Smith is still a high-end QB2 for me, especially considering the pace this game should be played at, but the ceiling might be limited a bit.

Running Back

Kenneth Walker simply cannot be stopped.

Sure, he is coming off his worst game since taking over the Seattle backfield, but he still rushed for 51 yards and a touchdown. He continues to demonstrate elite elusiveness, as Walker ranks second among all running backs in missed tackles forced (17) and seventh in yards after contact per attempt (3.85) since Week 6. Since becoming Seattle’s lead running back, Walker is averaging 21.6 touches and 20 fantasy points per game. Walker’s first start came against this Arizona defense where he rushed for 97 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries. The usage in the passing game isn’t really going to be there but Walker is a must-start player with the ability to rip off a 50-yard touchdown on any given play.

Wide Receiver

In a shocking twist, DK Metcalf was active last week, despite suffering a patellar tendon injury in Week 7. Metcalf didn’t play his usual load of snaps, but it was enough to catch six passes for 55 yards and a touchdown. He played 63% of the snaps and ran a route on 70% of dropbacks, both of which go up this weekend. The matchup is actually pretty tough, as Arizona continues to do a good job of limiting opposing top wide receivers, including Metcalf back in Week 6 when he caught just two passes for 34 yards. Byron Murphy shadowed Metcalf on 45% of his routes when these teams last met and as he’s done most of the year, won the matchup. Still, it is unlikely you have enough talent at wideout to sit Metcalf, who is still dominating the high value targets. Metcalf has seen 40.7% of Seattle’s red zone targets this year, the highest rate in the NFL, while also seeing 33.3% of their targets from inside the 10-yard line. That gives him serious touchdown upside, especially against an Arizona defense that is allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 63.6% of red zone trips, the ninth-highest rate in football.

Tyler Lockett was also questionable entering last week but ultimately played, hauling in five passes for 63 yards and a touchdown of his own. Lockett currently ranks ninth in the league in deep targets with 13 and while I’m likely still starting him as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3, this is not an easy matchup, as Arizona has not given up many long passing plays this season. Lockett was held to just two catches for 17 yards when these teams last met back in Week 6.

Tight End

In Week 8, Will Dissly played 50 snaps and ran 24 pass routes, while Noah Fant played 46 snaps and ran 24 pass routes. I say it every week but if just one tight end got all of this usage, they would be a top-12 tight end without question. However, Dissly and Fant are splitting everything right down the middle right now, which lowers the floor tremendously. It’s a shame, too, as this is an elite matchup, facing a Cardinals defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points (19.7), second-most targets (8.5) and most receptions per game (7.0) to opposing tight ends this season.

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 42.5, TB -3
Pace: TB: 26.5 sec/snap (4th), LAR: 30.7 sec/snap (31st)

What to watch for: Cooper Kupp is dealing with a sprained ankle but is expected to play. 

Buccaneers

Quarterback

For a second last Thursday, it really looked like Tom Brady was getting on track, but he ultimately finished with another underwhelming game, completing 26-of-44 passes for 325 yards and a touchdown. Brady is now the QB19 in fantasy, while his 2.2% passing touchdown rate is insanely low and the lowest rate of his entire career. The Bucs have been brutal in the red zone, as Brady is completing just 42.8% of his passes from inside the 10-yard line this season (10th-worst). It remains very difficult to have any confidence in Brady right now, especially with Tampa Bay consistently looking to run the football on early downs. The Rams are surprisingly sporting the league’s second-lowest pressure rate at 12.6% but Brady is still just a QB2 for the time being.

QBs I’d start over Brady: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Aaron Rodgers

Running Back

Leonard Fournette scored a touchdown last week, salvaging what would have been a disastrous day. He only touched the ball 12 times, giving him 22 total touches over the last two weeks. Fournette still played 72% of the snaps but we continue to see Rachaad White get 6-8 touches each week, while playing plenty of third downs and in the two-minute drill. There is nothing special about this matchup, as the Rams are allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, while the Bucs simply cannot run the football right now, generating 1.6 yards before contact per rush this season, the second-lowest rate in football. Fournette has been under 3.0 yards per carry in all but two games this season. Fournette is no longer a fantasy football RB1 and can easily be avoided if you managed to add Kenneth Walker, D’Onta Foreman or Eno Benjamin.

Wide Receiver

Despite how broken this offense is right now, you are still starting both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans caught 6-of-11 targets for 123 yards last week, giving him 26 targets over the last two weeks. Godwin, meanwhile, has yet to find the end zone, giving him the second-most targets (55) without a touchdown this season. He’s still seen double-digit targets in all but one game since returning from his injury in Week 4, averaging an awesome 10.4 targets per game during that span. I do think this is more of a spot for Godwin, as the Rams play the most zone coverage in the NFL, which benefits Godwin in the middle of the field. 

Tight End

If Cameron Brate remains out, Cade Otton remains a very strong streaming option at tight end. In three starts this season, Otton has logged 94%, 81% and 91% of the snaps, while running a route on 132-of-152 dropbacks (87%). It is a really tough matchup against the Rams, who are allowing a bottom-five catch rate (59%) to opposing tight ends this season, as well as the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position (6.7).

Rams

Quarterback

Nope. Don’t really want to start Matthew Stafford either.

He has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in each of his last five contests and if he didn’t save his day with his first rushing touchdown since 2016 last week, it would have been yet another brutal game for Stafford against San Francisco. Stafford has more interceptions (8) than touchdown passes (7) and while Tampa Bay’s pass defense is banged up at the moment, it isn’t enough for me to push Stafford anywhere close to top-12 status among fantasy quarterbacks. 

Running Back

Last week, it was Ronnie Rivers, not Darrell Henderson, who started at running back for the Rams. Henderson was dealing with an illness during the week so perhaps that played a role, and he still led the backfield with a 41% snap share but only touched the ball six times compared to 12 touches for Rivers. Malcolm Brown also saw five carries, while playing over 80% of the snaps at the goal line. Adding onto this mess, Cam Akers, who was not traded at the deadline, will return to practice and could be active on game day. Like Tampa Bay, the Rams also cannot run the football, ranking last in yards before contact per rush (1.3). Even with six teams on a bye, it is probably best to avoid this backfield.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp is dealing with an ankle sprain but is expected to play for now. I have zero idea why he was in the game when he was, but the Rams are just lucky it isn’t a long-term injury. As long as Kupp is active, you are obviously starting him and hoping he doesn’t aggravate his ankle injury. Kupp has found a ton of success against Tampa Bay over the last few seasons, who have struggled to defend slot receivers over the course of the year.

Meanwhile, Allen Robinson might be gaining some momentum, catching five passes for 60-plus yards in each of the last two weeks. Robinson still ranks second in the NFL with 10 end zone targets and is a desperation WR4. If for whatever reason Kupp did not play, it would push Robinson into high-end WR3 range, though his Rams offense would likely be even worse than they have already been this season.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee has fallen off lately, catching just three passes for 22 yards over the last two games. Higbee has been dealing with some injuries but honestly could have had a 50-plus yard touchdown last week, as he dropped a wide-open pass on a drag route that could have gone the distance. Because the Rams offensive line is brutal right now, they have been asking Higbee to block more, which is really hurting his potential. In Week 6 and 8 (the Rams had a bye in Week 7), Higbee leads all tight ends in pass-blocking snaps among tight ends with 15. In that same stretch, he only ranks 25th among tight ends in pass routes (35). He only ran a route on about 40% of dropbacks last week, which is really concerning. This week’s matchup is strong, as the Bucs are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points (15.8), seventh-most receiving yards (60.8) and fourth-most receptions (5.8) to opposing tight ends. Higbee is a low-end TE1 but if the routes don’t come back up, he could be on fantasy benches before you know it.

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 46, KC -12
Pace: KC: 27.2 sec/snap (12th), TEN: 30.8 sec/snap (32nd)

What to watch for: Ryan Tannehill missed last week with an ankle injury and will have to fight through some pain if he plays Sunday.

Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes gets to come off a bye week to face this awful Tennessee secondary. We know how amazing Andy Reid is after a bye, so expect the Chiefs offense to be humming in this game. Mahomes has been amazing all year, but especially over the last four games, where he’s averaged 325 passing yards and three passing touchdowns per game. Now he faces a Tennessee defense that is allowing the fifth-highest passing touchdown rate in the league (5.5%), while also coughing up the highest completion percentage (64%), most yards (636) and second-most touchdowns (4) off deep passes this season. The Titans have also been a massive pass funnel defense, which is fine by the Chiefs, who have zero issue just relying on Mahomes and the air attack. So far this season, 74% of the yardage allowed by the Titans has come through the air, the second-highest rate in football, while 87.5% of the touchdowns against Tennessee have been via the pass, the highest rate. Expect a huge game once again from Mahomes Sunday night.

Running Back

When we last saw Kansas City play, rookie Isiah Pacheco got the start at running back, carrying the ball eight times for 43 yards. Of course, this backfield remained a committee, as Jerick McKinnon actually led the way with a 44% snap share, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire logged a season-low 27% of the snaps, touching the ball six times for 32 yards and a touchdown. CEH and McKinnon played the snaps at the goal line, while McKinnon also led the backfield on third downs and in the two-minute drill. In games where Kansas City is trailing, McKinnon likely projects the best, but they are huge home favorites here, which makes Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire the preferred plays. Still, I am not actively looking to start anyone from this backfield, especially against a Tennessee run defense that has played well this season.

Wide Receiver

After a rather slow start to the season, JuJu Smith-Schuster has been amazing over the last two games, posting stat lines of 5-113-1 and 7-124-1. We’ve seen Smith-Schuster make a ton of plays after the catch as of late, including his two scores from Weeks 6 and 7 of 42 and 45 yards. Those aren’t sustainable but Smith-Schuster has seen eight targets in all but two games this season, giving him a solid floor in terms of volume. This week’s matchup is fantastic, as the Titans are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. He’ll see coverage from Terrance Mitchell, who is allowing 0.28 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season. Consider JuJu a low-end WR2 ahead of this great home matchup.

The rest of the Kansas City wideouts are dice rolls. Marquez Valdes-Scantling will still play a ton of snaps and made the most of his four targets in Week 7, catching three passes for 111 yards. And like we mentioned earlier, the Titans are allowing a lot of success to opposing passing games via the deep ball, while also ranking bottom-five in yards per reception allowed to wide receivers. Mecole Hardman had a crazy game against San Francisco, catching four passes for 32 yards and a touchdown, while adding two rushing scores. That obviously isn’t sustainable, but it was good to see Hardman actually lead the Kansas City wideouts with a 63% snap share, his second highest of the season. With six teams on a bye, this is the week to take a shot on Hardman, especially in this matchup.

Tight End

I don’t know about you, but I’d probably start Travis Kelce. He didn’t find the end zone last game but still had 98 yards, his third game over his last four with 90-plus receiving yards. Kelce still leads all tight ends with seven end zone targets this season, good for the ninth-most in all of football and should continue to crush this weekend.

Titans

Quarterback

With Ryan Tannehill (ankle) out last week, Malik Willis got his first career start. Tennessee didn’t ask him to do much, as the rookie attempted just 10 passes, eight of which came in the first half of the game. If Tannehill can’t play this week, Willis will once again start, and Tennessee will once again lean on Derrick Henry and the ground attack for as long as they can. But when the Chiefs start putting up points, Willis will have to throw. Whether it is Tannehill or Willis under center Sunday night, I don’t have too much interest in streaming a Tennessee signal caller in fantasy. 

Running Back

Derrick Henry rushed for 219 yards and two touchdowns on 32 attempts against the Texans last week, giving him four consecutive 200-yard rushing days against Houston. Henry has now seen 30-plus carries in each of the last two games, while seeing 28 the game before that. Henry is currently dealing with a foot injury, which is something to keep an eye on considering he missed half of last season with a foot issue, and he did not practice Thursday. Of course, as long as he is active, you are starting him, but you have to hope the Titans can keep this game close, as Henry’s splits are obviously not as favorable in games where Tennessee loses by a lot. This would be a good spot to continue to involve him in the passing game, as the Chiefs are surrendering the most targets (10.6), receptions (8.7) and receiving yards (62.6) per game to opposing backfields this season. If Henry somehow can’t play, Dontrell Hilliard would become a top-25 running back play.

Wide Receiver

I really don’t want to start any pass-catchers from this team right now. If Tannehill starts, the Titans will barely throw the football. If Willis starts, the Titans will barely throw the football. It doesn’t leave a lot of upside for Robert Woods, who has been held under 40 receiving yards in six of seven games this season.

Tight End

Nothing to see here.

Baltimore Ravens @ New Orleans Saints

Total: 48, BAL -2.5
Pace: NO: 27.78 sec/snap (16th), BAL: 30.2 sec/snap (30th)

What to watch for: Baltimore is really hurting on offense. Rashod Bateman (foot) is out for the rest of the year, while Mark Andrews has not practiced all week. Gus Edwards also hasn’t been practicing with a hamstring injury.

Saints

Quarterback

Andy Dalton is coming off a solid game against the Raiders, completing 22-of-30 passes for 229 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s still an uninspiring fantasy option this week, especially with Michael Thomas now likely out for the season, especially against an already tough Baltimore defense that just added Roquan Smith. The Ravens have really only allowed one quarterback to thrive against them (Tua Tagovailoa) and most of his production came off blown coverages on the back end. Dalton has now put together consecutive multi-touchdown games, but I’d look elsewhere if you need to stream a quarterback this week. 

Running Back

You knew Alvin Kamara was going to find the end zone eventually and when he did, it would be a huge game. That was the case last week, as Kamara scored three touchdowns against the Raiders, one on the ground and two through the air. His nine receptions were a season-high, as Kamara continues to see a massive role in the passing game with Dalton under center and with Thomas and Landry out. Since Week 3, Dalton’s first start of the year, Kamara is averaging six receptions and 8.2 targets per game, while sporting an impressive 20.7% target share, second among running backs behind only Austin Ekeler during that span. Kamara has now logged at least 70% of the snaps in each of his last five games and with Mark Ingram dealing with an injury, don’t expect that to change anytime soon. Baltimore’s run defense has been very good this season but with Kamara seeing 6-10 receptions each week, it really doesn’t matter.

Wide Receiver

Chris Olave remains a must-start wide receiver, especially with Thomas out for the remainder of the season. It is amazing to see Olave provide a combination of volume and splash play ability, as he ranks eighth in targets per route run (28%) and first in air yards per route run (4.3) among wide receivers that have run at least 50 routes this season. He’s also seen 36% of New Orleans’ air yards this season, a top-10 rate in the league. This gives him a really nice combination of floor and ceiling as the unquestioned WR1 on this team. Continue starting him as a low-end WR2.

Tight End

With Mark Ingram sidelined last week, the Saints essentially used Taysom Hill as their No. 2 running back, as he carried the ball 10 times for 61 yards, while catching one pass and attempting another. Hill played a season-high 36% of the snaps last weekend, while lining up in the slot a season-high eight times. His usage should remain strong enough to warrant top-12 tight end status in fantasy, especially with all the injuries to the Saints offense right now. 

Ravens

Quarterback

It appears that Lamar Jackson will be without his top-two pass-catchers in Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman this week. While that obviously doesn’t help matters, Jackson is coming off a game where he scored 22 fantasy points against Tampa Bay, while Andrews and Bateman combined to play a total of 23 snaps. Despite what the Saints did to the Raiders last week, this is still a positive matchup, as New Orleans is sporting the league’s sixth-lowest pressure rate at 17.2%, while allowing three of the last four signal callers against them to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. We have seen Jackson struggle to connect on deep passes this season, sporting the eighth-lowest completion rate on passes 20 yards or more down the field (28.1%), so not having Bateman definitely hurts. But he’s one of the best players in all of football and should continue to provide an amazing floor.

Running Back

Back in Week 7, it appeared we finally had some clarity in the Baltimore backfield. Even in his first game in about two years, Gus Edwards led the way with 16 carries for 66 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Last Thursday, Kenyan Drake got the start at running back, as Edwards was limited a bit. He did carry the ball 11 times but only played 21% of the snaps before leaving with a hamstring injury that could cause him to sit out Monday. With J.K. Dobbins already sidelined, Baltimore could turn to Drake as their lead back again and if that’s the case, he’d be a low-end flex against a Saints run defense that isn’t close to what it has been over the last few seasons.

Wide Receiver

With six teams on bye and plenty of wide receiver injuries, Devin Duvernay might become a viable WR3 this week. He caught all four targets for 31 yards last week, while adding 33 rushing yards and a touchdown on two carries. In the games Bateman has missed this season, the Ravens have tried to manufacture touches for Duvernay, whether it be off screen passes, end arounds, etc. New Orleans has been getting torched by opposing wideouts over the last few weeks, allowing Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase and DeAndre Hopkins to all eclipse 100 receiving yards. Of course, Duvernay is not on that level, but he’ll have plenty of opportunities this week, especially if Andrews is out, while the Saints could once again be without Marshon Lattimore in the secondary. And if you are in a very deep league, consider Demarcus Robinson, who caught 6-of-8 targets for 64 yards last Thursday.

Tight End

Mark Andrews is dealing with shoulder and ankle injuries, and with Baltimore on bye in Week 10, it seems like there’s a decent chance he sits out. With Andrews only playing 13 snaps last week, rookie tight end Isaiah Likely operated as the lead pass-catcher, hauling in 6-of-7 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. We know how much Jackson loves to target tight ends in the middle of the field, meaning Likely would see a ton of opportunities if he drew the start Monday. If Andrews is ruled out Friday, Likely would become a borderline top-12 tight end.