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Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 10

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Week 10 takes the Week 9 quarterback injury fallout and raises it with Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa byes. You will likely need to dip into the waiver wire to fill out your lineups this week. And hopefully my Start and Sit column for Week 10 can help you make those best lineup choices.

 

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 10

Quarterbacks

fantasy football week 8 sit-start quarterbacks qbs

4. Dak Prescott, DAL vs. NYG: 34.5-262-1.96-0.79 and 3.1-13-0.09 = 18.5

5. Justin Herbert, LAC vs. DET: 37.3-268-1.72-0.56 and 2.6-8-0.16 = 18.2

6. Kyler Murray, ARZ vs. ATL: 35.2-234-1.47-0.74 and 5.2-30-0.19 = 17.9

7. C.J. Stroud, HST at CIN: 34.6-282-1.52-0.28 and 1.5-5-0.06 = 17.7

8. Sam Howell, WAS at SEA: 39.1-274-1.64-1.02 and 2.5-14-0.06 = 17.2

9. Brock Purdy, SF at JAX

28.0-252-1.40-0.62 and 2.9-12-0.19 = 16.8

Brock Purdy has suffered three straight poor fantasy starts, but he has a few reasonable excuses. First, his truly dreadful 125-yard effort came in Cleveland against a Browns defense that with the Ravens are a pass defense outlier with a DVOA better than -30.0%.. And second, Purdy has missed his star receiver Deebo Samuel and left tackle Trent Williams the last two games, and he seems like to at least have the former back in Week 10 after Samuel returned to practice. With fantasy standouts Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa on bye this week, I would put Purdy back in your lineups and hope for a bounce back.

10. Russell Wilson, DEN at BUF

30.1-210-1.63-0.57 and 2.9-19-0.08 = 16.1

Russell Wilson Denver Broncos Week 10 Fantasy Football Start/Sit

New head coach Sean Payton may not be enamored. But even after his Week 9 bye, Russell Wilson ranks fifth with 16 passing touchdowns. And while you might be tempted to read the veteran’s silver-medal 4.95 expected touchdown surplus as suspiciously good touchdown luck, I think he can sustain it. Quarterbacks have more control over their expected touchdown surpluses than skill players do. And Wilson ranked top 10 in touchdown surplus the four seasons before his disastrous 2022 season with a 2.1-touchdown shortfall. I see this as a classic example of positive regression and would continue to start Wilson every week.

11. Trevor Lawrence, JAX vs. SF

34.7-248-1.25-0.63 and 3.5-18-0.07 = 15.9

Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson offered a handful of explanations for Trevor Lawrence’s low touchdown total this season. But I think Pederson hit the nail on the head in saying Travis Etienne “has had some good touchdown rushes as well that will take a touchdown pass away from Trevor.” Etienne has run in touchdowns from 17, 22, 26 and 35 yards from the end zone this season and racked up a 6.94 expected touchdown surplus that is second highest at his position. And he and Tank Bigsby have scored a combined four touchdowns from inside the 2-yard line. If Lawrence can lead as many successful drives in the second half of the season that he did in the first half, then the third-year quarterback should see more of those touchdowns land on his ledger with more balanced play-calling in the red zone. Especially with some top quarterbacks on bye, I would keep Lawrence in your fantasy lineups. 

12. Baker Mayfield, TB vs. TEN

34.5-233-1.48-0.62 and 2.7-9-0.05 = 15.3

Baker Mayfield has made a major fantasy stride increasing his pass attempts per game from 29.9 and 29.4 in his final Browns and Panthers seasons to 34.5 this year with the Bucs. And despite teammate Rachaad White’s two touchdown runs, Mayfield moved the needle of his likely touchdown scoring with eight red zone pass attempts in Week 9, tied for the most among quarterbacks. He still sits in the second tier at the position with 40 red zone pass attempts this season, tied for 13th with Joshua Dobbs. But the improvements put Mayfield in the QB1 conversation. And for me, he crosses the threshold with some top options on bye in Week 10.

fantasy football week 8 sit-start quarterbacks qbs

13. Joshua Dobbs, MIN vs. NO

34.6-202-1.25-0.66 and 3.9-23-0.16 = 15.0

If Joshua Dobbs can rack up 158 passing yards, 68 rushing yards and three total touchdowns with just four days to prepare with his new team, imagine what he can do with a full week! In all seriousness, Dobbs owes his proximity to QB1 status to his legs. The well-traveled veteran has a 22% carry share split between the Cardinals and Vikings that is tied for fifth at the position with Anthony Richardson.

14. Will Levis, TEN at TB

33.6-235-1.34-0.84 and 2.9-12-0.13 = 15.0

Will Levis may not have thrown a touchdown in his encore to his four-touchdown professional debut. But I’m weirdly more confident in the rookie than I was after his tremendous start. Levis threw his first four touchdowns from 16, 33, 47 and 61 yards from the end zone and racked up a 3.88 expected touchdown surplus that is the biggest by a quarterback in a game this season. It just wasn’t sustainable. But despite the lack of scores in Week 9, Levis tied for ninth at the position with four red zone targets and suffered a position-leading 1.58-touchdown shortfall. As is so often the case with these things, the truth is clearly in the middle. And I would be fine starting Levis in what should be a much easier matchup against the Bucs this weekend.

15. Jordan Love, GB at PIT

32.4-215-1.52-0.94 and 2.6-15-0.10 = 14.9

Jordan Love Green Bay Packers Week 10 Fantasy Football Start/Sit

Jordan Love may already have lost the confidence of his front office and coaching staff. But Love did no further damage in Week 9 despite a poor fantasy showing of 228 yards and one touchdown. The new Packers starter completed 77% of his passes and averaged an excellent 8.8 yards per pass attempt Sunday. He just threw a modest 26 pass attempts in what was a run-friendly 20-3 handling of Brett Rypien’s Rams. I remain decently confident of Love in fantasy thanks largely to his 15% carry share that is top 10 among healthy starters. This just may not be the week to play him with the Packers facing the top seven Steelers pass defense in Pittsburgh.

16. Derek Carr, NO at MIN

36.4-244-1.42-0.62 and 1.4-2-0.03 = 14.6

The Taysom Hill experience hasn’t cost Derek Carr too many pass attempts. The former Raiders quarterback has averaged a standard 35.1 passes this season and seems likely to enjoy a small boost on the road in the dome in Minnesota. But I suspect Hill is somewhat responsible for Carr’s 4.42 expected touchdown shortfall that is fifth biggest at the position. Carr just doesn’t throw as many passes as his fantasy contemporaries when the Saints are inside the 10-yard line, and that knocks him out of fantasy QB1 consideration.

17. Jared Goff, DET at LAC

34.9-259-1.10-0.56 and 1.4-1-0.09 = 14.3

Jared Goff has averaged 6.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in his 2.5-year Lions tenure, twice as extreme a split as Dak Prescott has in second place among current starters. Maybe the Chargers don’t count to the same extreme with their lack of fan base, but I’m not prepared to find out the hard way with Goff in my fantasy lineups.

18. Geno Smith, SEA vs. WAS: 32.5-231-1.46-0.81 and 2.3-6-0.04 = 14.3

19. Gardner Minshew, IND at NE: 35.9-242-1.29-0.86 and 1.8-5-0.09 = 14.2

20. Deshaun Watson, CLV at BLT: 31.4-208-1.26-0.75 and 2.8-16-0.06 = 13.8

Running Backs

fantasy football week 8 sit-start quarterbacks qbs

16. Jerome Ford, CLV at BLT: 15.6-67-0.53 and 2.8-2.0-14-0.08 = 12.7

17. David Montgomery, DET at LAC: 16.4-67-0.67 and 1.2-0.9-8-0.03 = 12.1

18. Chuba Hubbard, CAR at CHI: 14.5-58-0.36 and 3.5-2.8-18-0.06 = 11.6

19. James Cook, BUF vs. DEN: 12.5-59-0.26 and 3.1-2.5-22-0.08 = 11.4

20. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. IND: 11.6-46-0.31 and 4.9-3.6-26-0.08 = 11.3

21. Javonte Williams, DEN at BUF: 13.8-56-0.26 and 3.9-3.0-17-0.11 = 11.0

22. Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. NO: 15.0-54-0.42 and 2.8-2.0-14-0.13 = 11.0

23. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at LAC: 9.6-49-0.24 and 4.3-3.6-24-0.09 = 11.0

24. D’Onta Foreman, CHI vs. CAR: 15.7-70-0.42 and 1.4-1.0-7-0.03 = 10.9

25. Najee Harris, PIT vs. GB: 13.7-53-0.33 and 2.8-2.1-14-0.08 = 10.2

26. Brian Robinson, WAS at SEA: 13.0-52-0.40 and 1.8-1.4-11-0.06 = 9.7

27. Jaylen Warren, PIT vs. GB: 8.5-39-0.18 and 4.0-3.3-24-0.06 = 9.4

28. Gus Edwards, BLT vs. CLV: 12.3-54-0.50 and 0.9-0.7-6-0.02 = 9.4

29. Devin Singletary, HST at CIN

10.3-42-0.30 and 2.1-1.6-10-0.05 = 8.2

Devin Singletary will be an easy start if his teammate Dameon Pierce misses another week with his ankle injury. The former Bills back played 75% of snaps and saw 15 touches in Week 9. But even assuming Pierce plays, I see Singeltary as at least a short-term better fantasy option. Pierce slipped from 54-59% snap shares in Weeks 3-5 to 33% and 43% shares in Weeks 6 and 8 even before his injury. And Singletary earned his extra opportunities with a 24% broken tackle rate that ties him for seventh among regular running backs.

30. Zack Moss, IND at NE

9.1-42-0.28 and 1.9-1.5-11-0.05 = 8.1

As Jonathan Taylor has reasserted his RB1 status with increasing 15%, 42%, 50%, 61% and 74% snap shares the last five weeks, Zack Moss has slipped from 80% to 50%, 50%, 38% and 21% shares. Moss’s projected 9.1 carries may prove high if the Colts have a harder time with the Patriots than they did with the Panthers last week. The veteran’s hold on flex starter status is tenuous.

31. Kareem Hunt, CLV at BLT

10.4-38-0.42 and 1.3-1.0-7-0.03 = 7.7

Kareem Hunt may have touchdown runs each of the last two weeks, but his snap share paints a troubling picture of his likely fantasy fortunes. After Jerome Ford injured his ankle in Week 7, Hunt out-snapped Ford 35% to 33% in Week 8. But after an extra week to rest, Ford reasserted his RB1 role with a 64% versus a 29% snap share for Hunt in Week 9. Maybe Hunt has a preferred red zone role. But I see his flex starter status as temporary with four teams on bye. You may have better options.

fantasy football week 8 sit-start quarterbacks qbs

32. Tyler Allgeier, ATL at ARZ

11.4-40-0.33 and 1.7-1.3-9-0.03 = 7.7

Fifth-round bruiser Tyler Allgeier has outcarried his top 10 rookie teammate Bijan Robinson 26-9 in the red zone this season. I can’t say I’m surprised, exactly. But this has been way funnier that I could have imagined. Cheers, Arthur Smith.

33. Dameon Pierce, HST at CIN

12.0-40-0.37 and 1.1-0.8-6-0.02 = 7.3

Dameon Pierce Houston Texans Week 10 Fantasy Football Start/Sit

Beyond the injury concerns, I am concerned for Dameon Pierce’s touchdown potential. His 4.52 expected touchdown shortfall may point to poor luck. But with his teammate Devin Singletary on the same shortfall leaderboard, and with his team’s 0.87 yards before contact per attempt that is the worst in football, Pierce seems likely to continue to yield an outsized share of his potential touchdowns to his rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. I would bench Pierce even if he plays in Week 10.

34. Ezekiel Elliott, NE vs. IND

9.4-36-0.34 and 1.9-1.4-8-0.04 = 7.3

I wouldn’t say the 2-7 Patriots have righted the ship. But the team has at least settled into an offensive equilibrium with top back Rhamondre Stevenson playing 62-65% of snaps in three of the last four weeks and Ezekiel Elliott playing 35-52% of snaps in each of the last four weeks. Stevenson and his former teammate Damien Harris made a similar split work in fantasy in previous seasons. But the 2023 Patriots don’t have enough leads or red zone trips to make their No. 2 back Elliott a worthwhile flex option.

35. Emari Demercado, ARZ vs. ATL

9.5-38-0.22 and 2.2-1.6-10-0.04 = 7.1

Star quarterback Kyler Murray’s return to the lineup should definitely help his wide receivers and tight ends in fantasy. But Murray tied for fifth at the position with 35 red zone rushes in 2021 and 2022. He may hurt Emari Demercado’s touchdown potential. And given the toe injury that kept him out of Week 9, Demercado isn’t worth the fantasy risk this week.

36. Tyjae Spears, TEN at TB: 4.6-23-0.11 and 4.1-3.1-20-0.10 = 7.0

37. Antonio Gibson, WAS at SEA: 3.6-15-0.11 and 3.7-3.1-26-0.11 = 6.9

38. AJ Dillon, GB at PIT: 8.8-32-0.31 and 1.7-1.3-10-0.03 = 6.9

39. Miles Sanders, CAR at CHI: 6.7-28-0.19 and 2.5-1.7-10-0.04 = 6.0

40. Roschon Johnson, CHI vs. CAR: 5.3-23-0.17 and 2.2-1.8-12-0.05 = 5.8

41. Latavius Murray, BUF vs. DEN: 5.6-23-0.25 and 1.2-1.0-7-0.03 = 5.1

42. Justice Hill, BLT vs. CLV: 5.5-24-0.17 and 1.5-1.3-7-0.03 = 5.0

43. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN at BUF: 3.7-20-0.10 and 2.2-1.7-11-0.06 = 5.0

44. Zach Charbonnet, SEA vs. WAS: 4.9-23-0.14 and 1.4-1.1-8-0.03 = 4.6

45. Samaje Perine, DEN at BUF: 1.1-5-0.03 and 3.0-2.4-22-0.09 = 4.5

46. Joshua Kelley, LAC vs. DET: 5.6-24-0.17 and 1.1-0.7-5-0.02 = 4.4

47. Ty Chandler, MIN vs. NO: 5.2-21-0.13 and 1.4-1.1-7-0.03 = 4.3

48. Jamaal Williams, NO at MIN: 4.7-18-0.20 and 1.2-1.0-6-0.02 = 4.2

49. Rico Dowdle, DAL vs. NYG: 4.9-19-0.14 and 1.0-0.8-5-0.03 = 3.8

50. Chase Edmonds, TB vs. TEN: 3.1-12-0.08 and 1.7-1.3-10-0.04 = 3.5

51. Darrynton Evans, CHI vs. CAR: 2.5-10-0.06 and 2.1-1.5-11-0.04 = 3.4

52. Keaton Mitchell, BLT vs. CLV: 3.5-20-0.10 and 0.8-0.6-4-0.02 = 3.4

Wide Receivers

fantasy football week 8 sit-start quarterbacks qbs

20. Amari Cooper, CLV at BLT: 7.5-4.2-67-0.34 = 10.9

21. Deebo Samuel, SF at JAX: 5.9-3.6-51-0.24 = 10.7

22. DK Metcalf, SEA vs. WAS: 7.4-4.3-59-0.42 = 10.6

23. Calvin Ridley, JAX vs. SF: 8.1-4.6-60-0.32 = 10.5

24. Drake London, ATL at ARZ: 7.5-4.9-58-0.35 = 10.4

25. Tank Dell, HST at CIN: 6.3-4.0-60-0.31 = 10.3

26. Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. WAS: 7.1-4.8-55-0.38 = 10.2

27. Marquise Brown, ARZ vs. ATL: 9.2-5.0-54-0.38 = 10.2

28. Tee Higgins, CIN vs. HST: 7.7-4.4-58-0.36 = 10.2

29. Chris Godwin, TB vs. TEN: 7.7-5.1-57-0.30 = 10.1

30. Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. NYJ: 6.8-4.4-50-0.37 = 9.6

31. Jahan Dotson, WAS at SEA: 7.3-4.4-50-0.38 = 9.6

32. Courtland Sutton, DEN at BUF: 6.2-4.2-51-0.40 = 9.5

33. Gabe Davis, BUF vs. DEN: 5.8-3.5-53-0.40 = 9.5

34. Zay Flowers, BLT vs. CLV: 6.7-4.8-52-0.26 = 9.3

35. Jerry Jeudy, DEN at BUF: 6.3-4.2-55-0.25 = 9.2

36. Josh Downs, IND at NE

6.4-4.5-53-0.26 = 9.1

Prior to Week 9, Josh Downs had a 21% target share that tied him for 40th among wide receivers and justified his flex starter status. But then the rookie left Sunday’s start early with a balky knee and has yet to practice this week. Make sure Downs is playing in Germany this Sunday morning before you lock him into your fantasy lineups.

37. George Pickens, PIT vs. GB

6.6-3.5-57-0.26 = 9.0

George Pickens Pittsburgh Steelers Week 10 Fantasy Football Start/Sit

George Pickens has averaged 89 yards in weeks his teammate Diontae Johnson has missed this season but just 41 yards when Johnson has played. I think he’s too talented to bench. But I can’t consider Pickens a top 30 fantasy receiver unless he hits in a few Johnson weeks.

38. Christian Watson, GB at PIT

5.9-3.2-47-0.30 = 8.4

Christian Watson’s two targets and 37 yards weren’t the breakout we needed to find some confidence in the sophomore star with his rookie quarterback Jordan Love. But Watson likely suffered for the same gamescript reason that Love did in Week 9. And I am projecting Watson for an 18.5% target share in Week 10 that is tied for 45th and with a 9.4% touchdown rate that is fifth highest at the position. I would stick with him in fantasy.

39. K.J. Osborn, MIN vs. NO

6.0-3.9-46-0.26 = 8.2

K.J. Osborn has played 83% or more of snaps every healthy week this season — with or without Justin Jefferson in the lineup. And I feel more confident of Osborn in Week 10 with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback than I did with Jaren Hall. But Osborn left Week 9 early with an apparent concussion. Make sure he clears the protocol before you start him in Week 10.

40. Michael Thomas, NO at MIN

6.4-4.0-45-0.27 = 8.1

Michael Thomas’s one-target shutout in Week 9 really screwed up my copy-and-paste that he has seen between 6 and 9 targets every week this season and suffered a 2.53 expected touchdown shortfall that is second highest at his position. But I am projecting Thomas for an 18.5% target share in Week 10 that is tied for 45th among wide receivers. And I would still start him as one of my final flex options.

41. Noah Brown, HST at CIN

5.2-3.4-49-0.23 = 8.0

Noah Brown returned from injured reserve and a Week 7 bye to play 72% of snaps the last two weeks. And with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud trending up and Robert Woods likely to miss another week with his foot injury, Brown lands my final flex starter spot in Week 10.

fantasy football week 8 sit-start quarterbacks qbs

42. Michael Wilson, ARZ vs. ATL

4.6-3.3-47-0.21 = 7.5

The rookie Michael Wilson has translated his consistent 80%-plus snap shares into just one excellent fantasy day. But he seems likely to see more of those with star quarterback Kyler Murray back in the second half of the season. I would probably wait another week to start Wilson after he missed Week 9 with a shoulder injury. But keep him on your fantasy benches to see if the Cardinals take a step forward.

43. Romeo Doubs, GB at PIT

6.0-3.4-37-0.33 = 7.3

Romeo Doubs is tied for seventh with 12 red zone targets this season and may be closer to 2022 breakout receiver Christian Watson than their respective rankings suggest. But Doubs has faded to a 21% target share that is outside the top 35 at the position, and his quarterback Jordan Love has faded to a modest 32.5 pass attempts per game this season. I would sit Doubs in Week 10.

44. Demario Douglas, NE vs. IND

5.4-3.5-41-0.18 = 7.3

Demario Douglas has increased his snap shares from 8% in Week 2 to 24%, 33%, 62%, 77% and 83% his last five healthy weeks. He seems like the No. 1 Patriots receiver now that Kendrick Bourne is out for the season. But I am projecting Douglas for a modest 17.5% target share — tied for 50th at the position — assuming DeVante Parker plays this week. But if Parker misses more time, then Douglas will likely leap into flex starter range.

45. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. WAS: 5.5-3.7-38-0.25 = 7.1

46. Rashid Shaheed, NO at MIN: 3.8-2.5-42-0.17 = 6.9

47. Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. HST: 5.0-3.6-37-0.22 = 6.9

48. Jamison Crowder, WAS at SEA: 4.7-3.4-37-0.20 = 6.6

49. Elijah Moore, CLV at BLT: 6.0-3.5-37-0.17 = 6.6

50. Odell Beckham, BLT vs. CLV: 5.1-3.0-36-0.24 = 6.5

51. Jayden Reed, GB at PIT: 4.5-2.7-35-0.23 = 6.4

52. Darnell Mooney, CHI vs. CAR: 4.5-2.8-38-0.17 = 6.3

53. Brandin Cooks, DAL vs. NYG: 4.4-2.7-31-0.20 = 6.1

54. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG at DAL: 4.6-3.5-32-0.17 = 6.1

55. Darius Slayton, NYG at DAL: 4.7-2.7-38-0.13 = 6.0

56. Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. DEN: 3.7-2.7-34-0.16 = 5.7

Tight Ends

fantasy football week 8 sit-start quarterbacks qbs

5. Taysom Hill, NO at MIN: 3.1-2.4-19-0.17 = 10.3

6. Sam LaPorta, DET at LAC: 7.1-5.2-53-0.39 = 10.2

7. Dalton Schultz, HST at CIN: 6.6-4.4-46-0.42 = 9.3

8. Cole Kmet, CHI vs. CAR: 6.0-4.9-46-0.35 = 9.2

9. Trey McBride, ARZ vs. ATL

6.9-4.9-49-0.26 = 8.9

Trey McBride Arizona Cardinals Week 10 Fantasy Football Start/Sit

Trey McBride made a modest three catches for 22 yards Sunday. But the new Cardinals TE1 saw a 25% target share that was seventh highest at the position. And he should enjoy dramatically better success with similar target shares on the other side a Browns matchup and with star quarterback Kyler Murray back in the lineup.

10. David Njoku, CLV at BLT

6.1-4.3-45-0.33 = 8.6

David Njoku has never been a prolific touchdown scorer. He’s never scored more than four touchdowns in a season. But the seven-year veteran scored in Weeks 8 and 9, his first back-to-back touchdown weeks since Weeks 6 and 7 in 2018. And he’s supported his recent touchdown outburst with eight red zone targets the last four weeks, the most among tight ends. I’m optimistic enough to make Njoku a clear TE1 this week.

11. George Kittle, SF at JAX

5.0-3.7-49-0.30 = 8.6

George Kittle is too talented to ever sit in fantasy. But if Deebo Samuel returns to the lineup in Week 10, then the 49ers will again have too many talented skill players for all of them to excel in fantasy. Kittle has averaged a tremendous 9.0 targets and 106 yards in three games that either Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk has missed this season. But he’s averaged just 3.2 targets and 25 yards in five games with his full complement of skill player teammates.

12. Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. NYG

5.6-4.2-43-0.36 = 8.5

Jake Ferguson leads tight ends with 14 red zone targets this season. My back-end TE1 ranking will be his floor if he continues his recent ascension from 1 to 4 to 10 targets the last three weeks.

fantasy football week 8 sit-start quarterbacks qbs

13. Jonnu Smith, ATL at ARZ

4.5-3.6-42-0.22 = 7.3

Jonnu Smith leads Kyle Pitts with 34 catches versus 32, 422 yards versus 389, and two touchdowns versus one this season. Chef’s kiss, Arthur Smith.

14. Kyle Pitts, ATL at ARZ

5.7-3.5-43-0.21 = 7.3

I can’t even.

15. Logan Thomas, WAS at SEA

5.3-3.8-36-0.29 = 7.2

Logan Thomas Washington Commanders Week 10 Fantasy Football Start/Sit

Logan Thomas may not have capitalized on his teammate Curtis Samuel’s Week 9 absence with just four catches and 31 yards on Sunday. But the veteran tight end is tied for 17th with a 15% target share and tied for fifth with seven targets thrown within 5 yards of the end zone. With no Travis Kelce or Dallas Goedert this week, Thomas is a reasonable spot start.

16. Cade Otton, TB vs. TEN

5.0-3.6-33-0.27 = 6.7

Cade Otton has hardly missed a snap this season. He isn’t far from the back-end TE1 standard. But Otton is tied for a modest 18th among tight ends with five red zone targets this season, and his pair of Week 9 touchdowns jumped to him to a 1.27 expected touchdown surplus that is sixth highest at his position. I wouldn’t be on another three touchdowns in the second half of the season and would fade him a bit in fantasy this week.

17. Hunter Henry, NE vs. IND: 4.4-2.9-32-0.22 = 6.0

18. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at TB: 4.9-3.3-30-0.18 = 5.7

19. Luke Musgrave, GB at PIT: 4.0-3.0-29-0.19 = 5.6

20. Gerald Everett, LAC vs. DET: 3.8-2.9-27-0.23 = 5.5

21. Tyler Conklin, NYJ at LV: 3.7-2.7-28-0.14 = 5.0

22. Juwan Johnson, NO at MIN: 3.5-2.3-24-0.20 = 4.7

23. Irv Smith, CIN vs. HST: 3.8-2.6-21-0.20 = 4.6

24. Mike Gesicki, NE vs. IND: 3.0-2.1-20-0.16 = 4.0

25. Donald Parham, LAC vs. DET: 2.7-1.8-17-0.21 = 3.9

26. Daniel Bellinger, NYG at DAL: 2.7-2.1-20-0.13 = 3.8

27. Tommy Tremble, CAR at CHI: 2.7-1.9-17-0.18 = 3.7

28. Michael Mayer, LV vs. NYJ: 2.6-1.8-20-0.13 = 3.7

29. Noah Fant, SEA vs. WAS: 2.3-1.8-21-0.11 = 3.6

30. Kylen Granson, IND at NE: 3.0-1.9-20-0.12 = 3.6

31. Hayden Hurst, CAR at CHI: 2.8-1.8-18-0.13 = 3.5

32. Adam Trautman, DEN at BUF: 2.1-1.4-13-0.11 = 2.6

33. Austin Hooper, LV vs. NYJ: 1.7-1.3-13-0.07 = 2.4

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