Today’s Best Bets

Welcome to FTN’s Best Bets. We use our incredible tools and models to research and find value in the betting markets.

When betting sides and totals, make sure to check out our betting model to see how we project the game. We have betting models for NFL, MLB, NBA, CBB and CFB. We also have a PGA model for golf bettors! Become a better prop bettor by using FTN’s NFL, MLB and NBA Prop Tools as part of your daily process. Don’t leave money on the table and check FTN’s free Prop Shop Tool to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

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Here are our favorite bets of the day. To see all of our plays, check out the bet tracker.

1/17/25

NBA

Damian Lillard Over 22.5 Points (Bet by Sam Choudhury)

(-125, Caesars)

• At least 23 points in 22 out of 32 (68.8%) games, averaging 25 points on 17.3 shots.
• At least 23 points in 20 out of 27 (74%) games with Gary Trent Jr. (Q), averaging 25.6 points on 17.4 shots.
• At least 23 points in 13 out of 17 (76.5%) games at home, averaging 25.4 points on 18.1 shots.
• At least 23 points in 11 out of 13 (78.6%) games at home with Trent, averaging 26 points on 18.4 shots.
• At least 24 points in six out of seven (85.7%) games against Toronto, averaging 28.7 points on 18.1 shots.
• 25 points on 12 shots in the only career game against Toronto with Taurean Prince last week (Jan. 6).
• The Raptors allow fifth-most points to opposing point guards. 

RJ Barrett Over 4.5 Assists (Bet by Sam Choudhury)

(-125, DraftKings)

• At least 5 assists in 21 out of 33 (63.6%) games, averaging 5.9 assists on 9.5 potential assists.
• At least 5 assists in 20 out of 30 (66.7%) games with Davion Mitchell, averaging 6.1 assists on 10.0 potential assists.
• At least 5 assists in 19 out of 27 (70.4%) games without Immanuel Quickley, averaging 6.4 assists on 10.1 potential assists.
• At least 5 assists in 19 out of 26 (73.1%) games without Quickley and with Mitchell, including each of the last four, averaging 6.5 assists on 10.3 potential assists.
• At least 6 assists in nine out of 12 (75%) games without Quickley on the road, including each of the last four, averaging 7.5 assists on 11.4 potential assists.
• At least 6 assists in five out of six (83.3%) games without Quickley and with Scottie Barnes on the road, including each of the last four.
• Five assists on 10 potential assists in the only career game against Milwaukee with Barnes and/or Bruce Brown last week (Jan. 6), despite Quickley also being in the lineup.

Dejounte Murray Over 15.5 Points (Bet by Sam Choudhury)

(-125, Bet365)

• At least 16 points in 13 out of 25 (52%) games, averaging 17.2 points on 16.2 shots.
• At least 17 points in six out of nine (55.7%) games with Jose Alvarado, averaging 19.6 points on 16.3 shots.
• At least 17 points in eight out of 25 (57.1%) games at home, averaging 18.4 points on 16.6 shots.
• At least 20 points in three out of five (60%) games at home with Alvarado, averaging 20.8 points on 16.6 shots.
• At least 26 points in two out of three (66.7%) games with Zion Williamson, scoring 15 points 14 shots (28.6% field goal percentage) in the only miss, averaging 23.3 points on 17.7 shots.
• 29 points on 20 shots in the only game with Williamson at home last week (Jan. 7).
• Season-high 30 points on 22 shots the last time out Wednesday.
• At least 16 points in five out of the last six (83.3%) games against Utah, averaging 22.0 points on 20.2 shots.
• At least 17 points in both career games against Utah versus Keyonte George, averaging 25.0 points on 23.0 shots.

Zion Williamson Over 4.5 Assists (Bet by Sam Choudhury)

(-125, Bet365)

• At least 7.0 assists in three out of nine (33.3%) games, despite playing less than 30 minutes in six out of nine (66.7%) games, averaging 5.3 assists on 9.7 potential assists.
• At least 7.0 assists in three out of eight (37.5%) games with Javonte Green, averaging 5.5 assists on 9.5 potential assists.
• At least 11 potential assists in five out of the last six (83.3%) games, averaging 5.7 assists on 11.8 potential assists.
• At least 11 potential assists in two out of three (66.7%) games at home, averaging 6.0 assists on 9.3 potential assists.
• At least 9 assists in two out of the last five (40%) games, averaging 6.0 assists on 11.4 potential assists.
• At least 9 assists in one out of two (50%) games with Trey Murphy, averaging 6.0 assists on 14.5 potential assists.
• At least 10 assists in one out of two (50%) games without Herbert Jones (out) at home, averaging 7.0 assists on 8.5 potential assists.
• Nine assists on a season-high 18 potential assists the last time out (Tuesday), despite playing a season-low 24 minutes.
• Dejounte Murray is questionable.
• At least 5 assists in both career games against Utah without Brandon Ingram (out), averaging 6.5 assists on 12.5 potential assists.
• At least 5 assists on each of the last five games against Utah, averaging 7.8 assists on 12.6 potential assists.

Zion Williamson Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (Bet by Sam Choudhury)

(-140, ESPNBet)

• At least 11 assists and rebounds six out of nine (66.7%) games, averaging 5.3 assists on 9.7 potential assists and 7.6 rebounds 12.6 chances.
• At least 11 assists and rebounds six out of eight (75%) games with Javonte Green, averaging 5.5 assists on 9.5 potential assists and 7.8 rebounds 12.9 chances.
• At least 12 assists and rebounds in four out of five (80%) games without Herbert Jones (out), recording 10 in the only miss (Jan. 12), averaging 6.0 assists on 12.0 potential assists and 8.0 rebounds on 12.4 chances.
• At least 11 assists and rebounds in five out of six (83.3%) games without Dejounte Murray (Q), averaging 5.3 assists on 7.8 potential assists and 8.0 rebounds on 13.3 chances.
• At least 12 assists and rebounds in both games without either Jones or Murray at home, averaging 7.0 assists on 8.5 potential assists and 7.0 rebounds on 11.0 chances.
• At least 12 assists and rebounds in all three games without both Murray and Jones, averaging 6.0 assists on 10.3 potential assists and 8.7 rebounds on 13.0 chances.
• At least 11 assists and rebounds in each of the last four games against Utah, averaging 8.5 assists on 13.0 potential assists and 6.3 rebounds on 10.8 chances.
• At least 14 assists and rebounds in both career games against Utah without Brandon Ingram (out), averaging 6.5 assists on 12.5 potential assists and 8.5 rebounds on 13.0 chances.

Trey Murphy III Over 4.5 Rebounds (Bet by Sam Choudhury)

(-148, Caesars)

• At least 5 rebounds in 14 out of 26 (53.8%) games, including each of the last five, averaging 5.0 rebounds on 8.0 chances.
• At least 5 rebounds in eight out of 14 (57.1%) games with Jordan Hawkins, including each of the last five, averaging 5.3 rebounds on 8.9 chances.
• At least 5 rebounds in 11 out of 19 (57.9%) games without Herbert Jones (out), including each of the last five, averaging 5.3 rebounds on 8.5 chances.
• At least 5 rebounds in four out of six (66.7%) games without Dejounte Murray (Q).
• At least 6 rebounds in four out of five (80%) games with Hawkins and without Jones, including each of the last four, recording four rebounds on 10 chances in the only miss (Nov. 22), averaging 6.4 rebounds on 11 chances.
• 6 rebounds in both games with Zion Williamson, averaging 6.0 rebounds on 9.0 chances.
• At least 5 rebounds in all six games with Jose Alvarado, averaging 6.7 rebounds on 10.2 chances.
• At least 5 rebounds in both career games playing more than 25 minutes against Utah, averaging 7.0 rebounds on 10.5 chances.
• The Jazz allow the fewest rebounds to opposing small forwards but will be without Lauri Markkanen (out) and John Collins (out), after already losing Taylor Hendricks for the rest of the season.

Remember, these and all our bets are available in the bet tracker.