Gut Feelings: Fantasy Baseball Midweek Report (4/24)

This column will serve as a mid-week review of the most relevant fantasy baseball nuggets and trends. There won’t be a standard format, yet the goal will be to keep you informed about the fluidity of playing time, batting orders, rotations and bullpens to help guide fantasy lineup and roster decision-making.

Let’s dive into the starting pitcher pool to identify buy-lows and sell-highs based on underlying advanced metrics and upcoming matchups. I will be reviewing the group of 116 SPs who have pitched at least 20 innings through Tuesday’s games.

Gut Feelings: Starting Pitchers

Best in Class

Logan Gilbert is the best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.

At the end of a season, we can rank and grade the top starters on their 5×5 roto value, category stat output or overall fantasy points. Nearly one month into the season, it may be difficult to separate Shane Baz from Landen Roupp from Zack Wheeler since their year-to-date production have been similar. Looking under Gilbert’s hood, it is clear that he is an elite pitcher and is tracking toward easily returning second-round fantasy value and only appears to be getting better.

Gilbert’s ratios (2.63 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) are stellar, but not near the league’s leaders. There are over a dozen starters with an ERA under 2.00. None of that matters much now as none of them will end the season sub-2.00. Gilbert’s current ERA is supported by the lowest SIERA (1.93) and xFIP (1.64) in the majors. Moreover, Gilbert has the league’s highest strikeout rate (38%), strikeout-to-walk rate (32.4%), first-pitch strike rate (74%) and swinging-strike rate (18.1%). Gilbert has maintained a similar pitch mix as last season, though he ditched his cutter entirely and is throwing his split-finger fastball more (from 13% to 24%). Average velocities are down one tick on the splitter and four-seamer, yet both pitches have positive Statcast Run Values. The splitter generates a 50% whiff rate and a microscopic .074 xSLG.

Gilbert’s offense continues to let him down. He has secured just one win through his first five starts. If you recall, he won nine games last year as wins were the category weighing him down and away from the first overall spot for SP fantasy value. Sure, Gilbert’s ratios may not be as exquisite outside of his uber-pitcher-friendly home park. But imagine the hype and attention he would receive on a team like the Yankees, not to mention the run support and significant boost to his wins category in roto. The pitchers drafted ahead of him this season – Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Zack Wheeler – have all been very good, too. It’s just that no one has been better than Gilbert.

Gilbert’s next starts (projected):

• Week 5 – home, vs. Miami Marlins (this Friday)
• Week 6 – road, vs. Texas Rangers
• Week 7 – home, vs. New York Yankees

Gilbert may not maintain his MLB lead in strikeout rate, but he can stay above 30%, lead the league in innings pitched and WHIP again and perhaps get some actual run support. I understand that from a skills standpoint, he may not be as dynamic as Paul Skenes or Garrett Crochet, but he’s been an elite fantasy and real-life pitcher who has essentially become the new, similarly dependable Wheeleresque arm.

‘Unluckiest’ Starting Pitchers

The terms “unlucky” or “lucky” in starting pitcher analysis mean different things to different analysts. My standard method for identifying SPs who could have positive regression (buy-lows) or negative regression (sell-highs) coming their way is to review the difference between their ERA and SIERA (ERA-SIERA), their ERA-FIP, batting average on balls in play, left on base or strand rate and home runs allowed rate. I pull the data from Fangraphs and add my quick calculation for ERA-SIERA, then sort by that and dig into each pitcher. Per this data-pull through Tuesday’s games, here are the SPs with 20-plus innings whom I deem “unluckiest,” sorted by ERA minus SIERA.

I’ve removed Justin Steele (out for the year), and the ranking below illustrates the pitchers who have the highest differential in ERA and SIERA. Charlie Morton has the highest such differential (10.89), where the SIERA (5.83) and all other peripherals (FIP, xFIP, xERA) are all greater than 5.00. Morton not only has a horrifically low strikeout-to-walk rate, but he also allows over two homers per nine innings. He’s 41 years old, pitches in Baltimore in the competitive AL East, has slightly decreased velocity, and has lost over three points in his swinging-strike rate in the last two seasons, from 12.5% to 9%. It makes sense for him to see some positive regression, but it would still be regression to below-league-average level. He is the definition of an easy drop.

The most intriguing names on this list are the three guys who were top 100 overall fantasy picks this season – starting pitchers off to slow starts who we are frustrated with – Chris Sale, Aaron Nola and Dylan Cease

Chris Sale

This is the poster boy for a bounceback and a very strong buy-low candidate. Sale’s SIERA is 2.80, and his FIP, xFIP and xERA are all under 4.00. His strikeout rate (29.1%) is only three points lower than last season’s, and his walk rate (6.4%) isn’t far off from his career mark of 5.8%. Moreover, bad luck in his first few starts is apparent when we notice that his strand rate is 55% (second lowest among the 115 SPs) and his astronomical .422 BABIP is more than 100 points higher than league average. Sale was lucky with home runs allowed last season – a 0.46 HR/9, where his career mark is closer to 1.00. His career mark is where this year’s HR/9 should regress toward, assuming he is healthy and remains healthy throughout the season. If you drafted Sale, don’t worry too much. If you’re in a trade league, it is worth exploring the cost of acquisition. Sale draws the Diamondbacks and Rockies (both on the road) in his next two starts. After that, his schedule eases up with a home start against the Reds and a road one facing the Pirates.

Verdict: Explore offers and buy

Dylan Cease

Though I had Dylan Cease ranked lower than ADP in my preseason VDP rankings, there is no chance I’m taking this as a victory lap, nor do I think Cease will continue to struggle to this degree. His ratio indicators (again, the SIERA, FIP, xFIP) are all significantly lower than his actual ERA, while BABIP and LOB% portend similar unluckiness as Sale. Cease should draw the Rays (home), Pirates (road), Rockies (road) and Angels (home) if the current rotation holds up without shifting or weather issues. Check to see if Cease’s current manager in your league is panicking.

Verdict: Explore offers and buy, but beware the WHIP

Aaron Nola

Nola was another preseason VDP fade, mostly on the notions that he is overrated due to health and durability factors and that there is great variance in his end-of-season ratios from year to year. Over the last four seasons, his ERA has fluctuated from 4.63 to 3.25 to 4.46 to 3.57. Ratio snobs like me can’t reconcile unpredictable and roto-hurtful ratios with the benefit he provides in the strikeouts category. And he has only earned more than 12 wins in a season twice since 2016. Nola has allowed at least 30 homers in each of the last two seasons and is on a similar pace, allowing six in his first five starts. His velocity is down 1-2 mph, his spin rates are slightly down and his infamous curveball that produced a +12 RV last year is at -2 to date. Nola calls a hitter’s haven his home park and the NL East appears to be even more competitive this season.

Verdict: Hold until he throws a gem or two, then send trade offers

A few other takeaways after digging into a few of the pitchers in the table above:

• Cole Ragans is elite and a prime AL Cy Young candidate
• MacKenzie Gore will provide massive profit if he maintains a sub-8% walk rate
• Landen Roupp’s peripherals and advanced metrics support his rookie breakout
• Zac Gallen’s advanced metrics are cause for concern
• I need to put my personal biases aside with Eduardo Rodriguez; he’s not an All-Star, but he should end the season with a fantasy profit
• Sean Burke should be avoided as a 15-team streamer for now

‘Luckiest’ Starting Pitchers

Now, let’s review starting pitchers on the other end of the luck spectrum – those with considerably higher indicators (in this study, SIERA) relative to their year-to-date results (ERA). We can cross Chad Patrick immediately off. He won’t even get the chance to let negative regression hit him upside the head a la Easton Lucas of the Blue Jays, because he has been a placeholder in the Brewers’ rotation with Tobias Myers back this week and Brandon Woodruff returning soon. Patrick has a 2.11 ERA with a SIERA, FIP and xFIP more than two runs higher and a near-perfect (lucky) strand rate of 97%. There are a few others we shouldn’t concern ourselves too much with, such as Garrett Crochet and Drew Rasmussen. Crochet’s 3.21 SIERA is right about where VDP projected his ERA in the preseason. He won’t maintain a sub-1.50 ERA, but we know that.

Tyler Mahle

Let’s see here, a 0.68 ERA with a SIERA and xFIP three runs higher, a 12.9% strikeout-to-walk, a teeny-tiny BABIP and a high strand rate. Oh, and he has yet to allow a home run. There isn’t much that Mahle is doing differently this season. His pitch mix, repertoire, arm angle and velocity are similar to previous seasons, while his 11.8% swinging-strike rate is only a point above his career average. Mahle has walked between two and four batters in four of his five starts and we’ll likely see some positive regression to his career mean on an 11.8% walk rate toward his 8.6% mark. Heaney is a slightly above-average starting pitcher on an above-average offense and a solid defense. He has pitched well against some tough opponents (Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Rays). His next few draws are at SF (this Saturday), v ATH (Week 6), at BOS (Week 7), v COL/v HOU (Week 8). Even with inevitable negative regression, Mahle could enjoy a career year, akin to his best results from 2021 (3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 33 starts) with the Reds. Netting someone like Tanner Bibee for Mahle straight-up isn’t crazy, if the Bibee manager is concerned. Perhaps a package deal involving Chris Sale or Corbin Burnes as a return.

Verdict: Avoid buying high; explore sell-high offers

Mitchell Parker

Parker may be following the blueprint of his rookie season. He produced exceptional results in the first half of last year (3.90 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 5.5% BB), then came back down to earth in the second half (4.91, 1.57, 8.2%). This season, Parker has a third-lowest BABIP (.191), above-average strand rate (85%) and an xFIP and SIERA close to 5.00. Parker should remain rostered in 15-teamers where we can stream him for home starts. Though this sample size is small, it’s worth noting how much better he is there in his young career:

• Home: 109 IP – 2.24 ERA – .260 OBP – .259 wOBA
• Road: 75 IP – 6.03 ERA – .350 OBP – .346 wOBA

Parker draws the Mets at home this weekend, and it might be wise to bench him in Great American Ball Park against the Reds next week.

Verdict: Hold in 15-teamers, but stream judiciously (preferably for home starts)

Tylor Megill

Queue Michael Cera in Arrested Development.

It doesn’t matter what season – the other shoe (the one filled with disaster and doom) always ends up dropping for the Mets’ righty folks in the NFBC community once dubbed “Baby deGrom.” Before this season, Megill owned a 4.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and a 9.2% walk rate over 340 innings – a mix of 67 starts and a few multi-inning relief appearances. Megill has come out blazing, allowing three total earned runs in his first five starts. His latest foray was Monday, where he pitched 5.1 innings of scoreless ball with just one hit allowed and 10 punchouts of the rival Phillies. Megill hasn’t reached the six-inning mark yet this season but has had pitch counts between 90 and 95 in his last three. Megill has yet to allow a longball but has issued at least three free passes in 3-of-5. Perhaps we have a similar scenario as with Mahle, where Megill might have a career-best season, but it won’t be a full-fledged breakout and there will be outings filled with doom, despair and curse words. Megill’s next three starts will be on the road against the Nationals (this weekend), the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks. Exploring a sell-high offer – especially if you have crazy Mets fans in your league – is an absolute no-brainer. I’d rather roster his teammate, Griffin Canning Perhaps you can pull of a 1-for-1 deal for Landen Roupp.

Verdict: Explore sell-high offers. The other shoe will drop, though not as badly as in previous seasons.

Quick takeaways:

• A Jackson Jobe or Casey Mize deal is worth exploring, depending on the return. League-mates of yours who aren’t in tune with their “luckiness” might be overly enamored with their hot starts and prospect status, which could lead to a profitable return in a trade.
• Kodai Senga has been “lucky,” but I’d still consider buying if the return is reasonable
• Drew Rasmussen, Nick Pivetta and Max Fried are outstanding pitchers and their underlying metrics support it. Though due to health and durability issues in the past, it would be wise to explore deals where you get the moon and a cherry on top in return for Rasmussen or Fried.

That will do it for this week’s Gut Feelings. See you for some FAAB this weekend.