Moves to Make Now in Dynasty Fantasy Football (4/23)

We’re finally here. Draft week. Heck, as you’re reading this, it might even be draft day (shoutout Kevin Costner). And whether you’re a devy degenerate or a new dynasty player who’s tuning in for the spectacle, this weekend will, as always, reshape the landscape of fantasy football. With that in mind, here are a few last-minute trade candidates to buy or sell before the draft shifts their value.

Dynasty Moves to Make: Buys

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Recently, I’ve gone back and forth and back again on Patrick Mahomes, trying to decide whether to buy the dip, whether he’s just a hold, or whether his dynasty trajectory will continue sliding through this offseason and beyond. Ultimately, heading into Thursday night, I’m sending out feelers to acquire him. Firstly, I’m optimistic about Kansas City’s potential draft plans: Most mocks have them selecting an offensive tackle in the first round, and quite a few have them grabbing a wide receiver, tight end or pass-catching running back on day two. Whether it’s Jayden Higgins, Tre Harris, Jaylin Noel, a TE successor to Travis Kelce or maybe even Cam Skattebo, I think Brett Veach and Co. will bring in another weapon (or two) to complement Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, Isiah Pacheco and eventually a returning Rashee Rice That would arguably give Mahomes a better corps of playmakers than he’s had these last two (down) years.

Beyond that, it feels like Mahomes’ current dynasty price (QB6) is realistically his floor, and that the majority of imaginable outcomes have him bouncing back up to the top tier sometime soon. From 2018 through 2022, his full-season statistical pace was 4,791 yards and 41 touchdowns. Since 2023, he’s averaged just 4,056 yards and 27 TDs, and Kansas City’s elite defense has made it work. We’ve seen these sorts of fantasy dips by the greats before, and they usually course correct: Peyton Manning had a “down” stretch in the late ’00s before dominating 2012-14, Tom Brady was “meh” at the end of his Patriots career before surging with the Buccaneers. Mahomes will be a top-tier fantasy QB1 again, and I doubt he’ll get much cheaper to acquire than he is right now, so it feels like a crafty buy.

Assets I’d trade for Mahomes: Justin Herbert + a sweetener, early-Round 1 pick in superflex or late-Round 1 pick in single-QB