Gut Feelings: Fantasy Baseball Midweek Report (4/10)

This column will serve as a mid-week review of the most relevant fantasy baseball nuggets and trends. There won’t be a standard format, yet the goal will be to keep you informed about the fluidity of playing time, batting orders, rotations and bullpens to help guide fantasy lineup and roster decision-making.

Last week, I reviewed the American League teams, so this week, let’s discuss the National League squads. There’s a lot to cover so I’m skipping an intro this time, but leave you with the Kyren Paris technical transformation video to watch when you have 30 minutes to spare:

NL Batting Orders

Atlanta Braves

This offense is struggling, but they truly are too big to fail. Four of their core offensive pieces missed significant chunks of the 2024 season, which led to a 34% decrease in runs scored from the previous season. The Braves simply are not yet in sync, but they will get there. Michael Harris II is one of the struggling bats but should continue to hit atop the lineup against RHPs despite his allergy to free passes. Sean Murphy returned Tuesday and hit a homer in his first game. The bottom half of this lineup and the bench are weak, though. Orlando Arcia has ceded playing time at shortstop to Nick Allen. Bryan De La Cruz with his 2025 goose eggs for stats and his career .296 OBP is their number six hitter, their bench features recent acquisitions Stuart Fairchild and Eli White, and the ghost of Jarred Kelenic still haunts them – in the actual lineup! Alex Verdugo has played three games at Triple-A and will likely be called up soon. Hey, at least there’s something in the short term for Braves fans to look forward to!

New York Mets

The top of the order is steady and will be productive most of the season: Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo. Mark Vientos is hitting .119 with no homers and has dropped down to sixth in the order. Though, he is being prematurely dropped in NFBC leagues. That’s a mistake because Vientos will get going soon enough. On the plus side, his walk rate is up to 13% (7.3% last year), and his strikeout rate is down 10 points to just under 20%. Rookie Hayden Senger has been drawing starts at catcher with Luis Torrens day to day and Francisco Alvarez still recovering. Jose Siri has been losing playing time in CF to Tyrone Taylor. Taylor drew the start there the last three games. Brett Baty has been cold but continues to hit seventh and play second base against righties. Starling Marte has been drawing more frequent starts as the Mets’ designated hitter.

Philadelphia Phillies

Kyle Schwarber – the guy you may or may not have passed on in drafts because he’s UT only – is off to a great start with 5 HR, 11 R, 11 RBI a .324 average and a 1.255 OPS. Part-timer Edmundo Sosa is hitting close to .500, and veteran Trea Turner has four stolen bases. The Phillies wanted to give Brandon Marsh a chance to play against left-handed pitchers, but that hasn’t been happening as Johan Rojas has been drawing those starts in center field. J.T. Realmuto is not resting as often as manager Rob Thomson alluded to in the preseason – he’s resting one game per week, on average. Left-handed hitting Max Kepler has mostly batted fifth in the order but moved up to cleanup against a righty Sunday. Bryson Stott is essentially the everyday second baseman but might lose playing time to Sosa against lefty pitchers. Alec Bohm has settled into hitting third and fourth.

Miami Marlins

This offense has been slightly overachieving despite clearly being the least talented in the National League. Through Tuesday’s games, they are 6-6 and 20^th in runs scored. The health status of Jesús Sánchez feels like a national secret, so if you have one on him, please share it in the FTN Discord. Xavier Edwards and Kyle Stowers have been locked into the 1-2 slots. It’s the same with Graham Pauley hitting eighth against righties. Otto Lopez has predictably cooled off after a red-hot first week. After a week of facing mostly right-handed pitchers, they will finally draw some left-handed pitchers against the Nationals this weekend. We will then see more of Eric Wagaman, Dane Myers and Javier Sanoja. Yay. Rule 5 pick Liam Hicks has been earning more PT lately, partly because Nick Fortes was banged up last week but also because Hicks has been playing better defense. At some point, we’ll see prospect Agustín Ramírez Ramírez isn’t doing anything special in Triple-A (9 games: 5 R – 0 HR – 6 RBI – 1 SB – .250).

Washington Nationals

The biggest storyline in our nation’s capital is the slow start of Dylan Crews, who is slashing .139/.162/.139 and a 35% strikeout rate. Crews has dropped to ninth in the order but is still out there every day. Please do not panic and sell low on Crews now. Alex Call has been earning everyday playing time in right field as Crews has played more in center and Jacob Young now a bench bat. Luis Garcia and Amed Rosario remain in a 2B platoon, though Garcia did hit sixth against a lefty on Tuesday – it’s something to monitor. Keibert Ruiz is off to a hot start but won’t maintain his role in the three-hole. He’s a guy worth shopping around. Perhaps you can pitch a deal of Ruiz plus a throw-in for the Astros’ catcher Yainer Diaz. Or perhaps a straight-up swap for Gabriel Moreno of the Diamondbacks.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs lead the majors in runs with 95 through their first 15 games, an average of 6.3 per game. They do have two more games played than most teams because of the Tokyo series and had the pleasure of playing a series in Sacramento. Most impressively, they lead the majors in stolen bases (25) as well. Ian Happ leads off against lefties and righties. Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki swap the two and three slots depending on the matchup – Tucker higher against the righties. Michael Busch often sits against the lefties with Justin Turner occupying his cleanup slot against them. Nico Hoerner, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw cover 6-7-8 with the ninth slot split between a red-hot Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya. Dansby Swanson has been crushing it out of the five-hole.

Cincinnati Reds

This offense is a mess. Matt McLain was scratched in each game over the weekend, then was placed on the IL Tuesday. Pitcher Carson Spiers was demoted as well, so both Will Benson and Noelvi Marte were called up. Marte will likely cover 3B against lefties for a struggling Jeimer Candelario (.140/.208/.163). Blake Dunn wasn’t in the lineup Wednesday, but he hit out of the two-hole between TJ Friedl and Elly De La Cruz Monday and Tuesday. His name is one to monitor in case he continues to earn meaningful playing time near the top of the order, though we’re only considering him as a fringe conditional bid in 15-team leagues. Gavin Lux and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have occupied the fourth and fifth spots in the lineup against righties, with Lux dropping down to seventh against lefties. Spencer Steer has been the everyday DH, hitting seventh.

Milwaukee Brewers

Jackson Chourio is hitting .315 with four homers and 16 RBIs, though he has zero walks through his first 12 games. Christian Yelich and William Contreras will be great as long as they stay healthy, though they both have sputtered at the plate in the early going. That is, until they arrived for a series in Coors Field and each launched homers in that first contest. Chourio, Yelich and Contreras all homered in the Brewers’ 17-2 win over the Rockies Wednesday. Sal Frelick should be rostered in 12-teamers on teams that could use a little batting average and runs boost. Frelick owns a .356 average with three swipes and has been hitting fifth against both lefties and righties. Rhys Hoskins is still looking to go yard for the first time this season. He has one more shot to hit that first home run at Coors Field against Ryan Feltner Thursday. Garrett Mitchell hasn’t been productive, only plays against righties and has spent some time over the last week hitting eighth, though Mitchell batted fourth on Sunday. Vinny Capra and Isaac Collins remain short side platoon bats. The Brewers may not be ready to promote speedy prospect Caleb Durbin, but he’s off to a nice start in Triple-A, slashing .294/.333/.559 with two homers and a stolen base in eight games.

Pittsburgh Pirates

This offense isn’t pretty, with very little fantasy value outside of Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds. Spencer Horwitz is about 2-3 weeks from returning and isn’t going to save them. Manager Derek Shelton keeps running Jack Suwinski out there as the leadoff man against righties. Suwinski is hitting .130 and has a career batting average of .205. He has one minor-league option remaining. Endy Rodríguez has been playing most days, switching between first base and catcher. He has been mediocre at the plate and will have to step it up this month to not lose playing time once Horwitz and Nick Gonzales return. Wednesday, the Pirates promoted shortstop Tsung-Che Cheng, a 23-year-old who mostly played at Triple-A last season and hit 11 HR with 17 SB in 132 games. He’s not a guy to worry about in most formats.

St. Louis Cardinals

This grown man has been crying all week since losing Iván Herrera. We didn’t yet know the severity of his knee injury by Sunday’s FAAB deadline but have since learned that he will be out for at least a month. That makes it difficult for us to carry him on our rosters in all formats. A particularly heavy blow for me, considering how hot Herrera started and the fact that I mostly punted the catcher position this season. Yohel Pozo was called up when Herrera went down and Pozo will serve as Pedro Pagés’ backup. Lars Nootbaar continues to lead off, but he has cooled off over the last week. His spot atop the order is safe for now, but at some point, Masyn Winn will come gunning to get it back, and Nootbaar could drop down the order. In fact, Oli Marmol may want to consider dropping an ice-cold Willson Contreras (5-54, 0 HR) down or giving him a day off. Contreras has been striking out at a 41% clip. It’s worth noting that it was Victor Scott II – not Winn – who earned leadoff duties on Nootbaar’s day off Tuesday. Thomas Saggese was called up when Nolan Gorman hit the IL last weekend. Saggese has started in three-of-five, twice at 2B, once at 3B. The Cardinals are projected to face three lefties in their next 10 games, which means some more of Luken Baker in their lineup but not enough playing time for streaming purposes.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Their pitching staff has been a mess, but the offense remains somewhat stable. Kiké Hernández has been the Dodgers’ everyday first baseman since Freddie Freeman hit the IL. Hernández is hitting .105 – four of his five hits are homers! Max Muncy has been horrific at the plate, with no redeeming qualities in his underlying metrics. His usually sparkling walk rate is currently under seven percent, while his strikeout rate is at 40% with no homers. He will heat up at some point, but I can’t blame folks who want to drop him in 12-team formats. A bit tougher to do in 15-teamers. Freddie Freeman is a key spark plug for this offense, and they need him back soon.

Arizona Diamondbacks

This scorching offense received a massive blow, losing Ketel Marte to a left hamstring strain. It appears severe enough that Marte doesn’t have a timeline for recovery and the best estimates point toward sometime in May. Geraldo Perdomo, a popular FAAB pickup last weekend, has assumed a valuable role as the two-hitter, while rookie call-up Tim Tawa and veteran Garrett Hampson have split the duties at second base. We should all be on Jordan Lawlar watch, though the Diamondbacks want to ensure that he earns everyday at-bats. Currently, those at-bats remain at Triple-A. Alek Thomas has quietly been stealing playing time from Jake McCarthy. This is not a handedness platoon situation, but it may continue to be a platoon for some time.

San Diego Padres

The Padres have had an awful week on the injury front. They lost Jackson Merrill (hamstring) to the IL while both Jake Cronenworth (ribs) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (shoulder) are day to day. The Padres have a day off Thursday, and hopefully both Cronenworth and Tatis are back in the lineup Friday. It’s worth noting that the discomfort Tatis felt was in the shoulder he had surgically repaired three years ago. The Padres called up Oscar González for Merrill. Gonzalez has been with three organizations since he last appeared in the majors – back in 2023 with the Guardians. If Tatis misses more time, Luis Arraez will hit first. With Merrill out, Xander Bogaerts moves into the top four. Career minor-leaguer and 28-year-old rookie Brandon Lockridge is on “demotion watch,” as he’s struggled at the plate and has no barrels to date. Our boy Tirso Ornelas has been playing well in the PCL (.286/.419/.286, 10 R – 0 R – 4 RBI – 2 SB) but hasn’t been hitting for power (all hits through nine games are singles). Meanwhile, 29-year-old Trenton Brooks has been crushing it – .378/.447/.730 with 10 runs, three homers and 14 RBIs. Ornelas and Brooks are both left-handed hitters but one of them might be the guy called up for Lockridge since González the righty is on the roster. The most likely scenario is Lockridge staying on the roster and losing PT to González until Merrill returns.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants continue to roll with their standard lineup against righties:

via Roster Resource

The versatile Casey Schmitt steps in for LaMonte Wade Jr. to play 1B against lefties and Luis Matos takes Mike Yastrzemski’s spot in the outfield against them. Heliot Ramos (first name pronounced Elliot) is their leadoff man against lefties. Wilmer Flores continues to swing a hot stick, hitting his team-leading fifth homer of the season in the Giants’ 8-6 extra-inning win against the Reds Wednesday. FTN preseason value pick Jung Hoo Lee hit his league-leading seventh double in that game and has driven his batting average up to .333. Lee hasn’t homered yet but has three stolen bases and seems comfortable in the three-hole. Matt Chapman has struggled to hit for power early on. Chapman has a miniscule 3.7% barrel rate and 26% hard-hit rate.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have maintained the top of the order all season with Brenton Doyle, Ezequiel Tovar and Ryan McMahon in the top three spots. Catcher/DH Hunter Goodman is the cleanup man against righties and hit fifth against a lefty Wednesday. Michael Toglia has been struggling all season and was finally dropped to eighth Wednesday – likely temporary. Kris Bryant has been the everyday DH the last four games, hitting fifth against righties and seventh against Wednesday’s lefty. Zac Veen will be a popular FAAB pickup this weekend. He was promoted Monday, debuted in right field hitting seventh against the RHP Tuesday and ninth against the lefty Wednesday. Seeing him in there against a lefty bodes well for everyday playing time and his overall value. Slugger Sean Bouchard hit second Wednesday against the lefty.

Gut Feeling

FTN’s team of developers is continuing to spruce up our projections model via the Custom Rankings & Projections tool. Just as we had last season, we have now added the ability to sort rankings and projections by Monday-Thursday and Friday-Sunday. We will have VDP$ included in the “League Stats” and “All Projections” displays. I’m working with the team to adjust our model’s roto category levers to more accurately reduce the values and rankings of those mediocre two-start pitchers. Though those early-week gems from Shane Smith, Erick Fedde, Michael Lorenzen and Carmen Mlodzinski have the roto gods laughing at our math formulas and logic. Here are the top projected hitters per the FTN model for Friday-Sunday (hey, what’s CES doing there? Guess we’ll find out):

That will do it for this week’s Gut Feelings. See you for some FAAB this weekend.