Week 8 Fantasy Football Game By Game Breakdown

Week 8 is going to be difficult for many fantasy managers, as bye weeks continue to roll in, while Week 7 featured plenty of notable injuries, including Breece Hall, DK Metcalf and Mike Williams. Having solid depth is huge this time of the year and there will be plenty of tough decisions to be made this weekend.

Let’s get after it. This is the key fantasy information to know in Week 8 of the NFL season.

Week 8 byes: Chargers, Chiefs

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 45, TB -1.5
Pace: TB: 26.96 sec/snap (7th), BAL: 30.27 sec/snap (30th)

What to watch for: Russell Gage (hamstring) left Sunday’s game and could miss Week 8.

Buccaneers

Quarterback

What is wrong with Tampa Bay right now? Over the last two week — against the Steelers and Panthers, no less — the Bucs have scored a total of 21 points, with Tom Brady scoring 13.7 and 11.7 fantasy points. This offense has zero explosiveness right now, as so much of their production is coming off screens and short passes. Brady’s 2.7% passing touchdown rate is a career-low rate. It’s true that he hasn’t played great lately, but he has also been a bit unlucky, as he’s had pass-catchers tackled at the 1-yard line multiple times over the last few weeks alone. The “no risk it, no biscuit” Bruce Arians’ offense is gone, as just 9% of Brady’s pass attempts have traveled 20-plus yards so far this season, a number that was at 16% in 2020 and nearly 11% in 2021. The Bucs offensive line isn’t giving Brady much time for downfield routes to develop, as Brady’s average time to throw of 2.24 seconds easily leads the NFL. Thursday night, the Bucs host the Ravens, who are allowing 19.6 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season, the sixth most in the league, however, they have been improved as of late, coughing up just 189.3 passing yards per game over the last three weeks (eighth fewest). The Ravens are allowing a bottom-five completion rate on deep passes, so perhaps this is a spot for Brady to connect on some deep shots, but it is tough to trust the legend as anything more than a high-end QB2 at the moment.

Running Back

Leonard Fournette failed to find the end zone for the first time since Week 3 Sunday, as Tampa Bay’s offense punted the football on nearly every possession. He only recorded 10 touches, though it is difficult to touch the football when your team is trailing by two scores. The Bucs continue to work Rachaad White into the offense, as the rookie logged 43% of the snaps this weekend, his highest snap share of the year. In a closer game, Fournette could easily return to the 82% snap share we saw in Week 7. This isn’t the greatest matchup, as the Ravens have been a strong run defense. Just 28.6% of the yardage against this unit has come on the ground this year, the seventh-lowest rate in football, though they did just allow both Cleveland running backs to find the end zone against them. You are still starting Fournette, especially considering running backs are accounting for over 20% of Tampa Bay’s targets, and Fournette is averaging nearly six per game. 

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans posted a strong stat line of nine catches for 96 yards, but it should have been a monster game. On the opening drive of the game, Evans was left wide open on a post route that would have been a walk-in 70-yard touchdown, but he (shockingly) dropped the pass. After seeing just four targets in Week 6, it was good to see Evans targeted 15 times. He was spotted limping around at times and has missed some practice time to start the week, but all signs point towards Evans suiting up. Assuming he does, you are obviously starting Evans, who has recorded at least one reception of 20-plus yards in every game this season. 

Chris Godwin, meanwhile, posted a long reception of 10 yards Sunday, as he continues to see a ton of targets in the intermediate area of the field. He caught seven passes against Carolina but only finished with 43 yards. For the season, nine of Godwin’s 44 targets (20%) have come off screens, while he ranks sixth in targets (9) and third in receptions (9) off screens. It helps give him a really strong floor in PPR leagues, as Godwin has seen double-digit targets in three of four games since returning from injury, averaging 10.2 targets per game during that span. He’s also hauled in at least six passes in every game during that stretch, he’s just failed to find the end zone, though he was tackled at the 1-yard line in Weeks 5 and 6. Heading into Week 8, Godwin has a solid matchup against Baltimore slot defensive back Brandon Stephens, who is allowing a target every 4.7 coverage snaps from the slot this year, the eighth-worst rate in football, while allowing 0.34 fantasy points per coverage route. Evans and Godwin remain strong WR2 plays, despite the issues with Tampa Bay’s offense right now.

Tight End

Cameron Brate missed last week’s game with a neck injury. In his absence, rookie Cade Otton drew his second start of the season at tight end. In his first career start back in Week 5, Otton played 94% of the snaps, ran a route on 87% of dropbacks and saw seven targets, which is fantastic usage, especially for a streaming tight end. And this past weekend, Otton played 80% of the snaps, ran a route on 70% of dropbacks and was targeted five times, catching four passes for 64 yards. So while it wasn’t quite the same usage and involvement as Week 5, it was still more than enough to once again consider Otton as a viable streaming tight end once again.

Ravens

Quarterback

Shockingly, Lamar Jackson has been held under 20 fantasy points in each of his last four games, scoring just three total touchdowns and averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game during that span. The combination of a rejuvenated running game and a strong defensive effort from the Ravens limited Jackson to just 16 pass attempts, easily a season low. Baltimore posted a 68% rush rate against Cleveland — that obviously won’t happen every week, we have seen the Ravens, who opened the season extremely pass-heavy, lean more on the run over the last few weeks. In fact, since Week 4, Baltimore is sporting the league’s fourth-lowest pass rate in neutral situations at 45.6%. I’m still not getting away from Lamar, especially considering he’s racked up at least 58 rushing yards in all but one game this season, including at least 100 yards in two different contests. He just needs the touchdowns to come back.

Running Back

Gus Edwards made his 2022 debut Sunday, his first NFL action since Week 17 of the 2020 campaign. His playing time was limited — Edwards logged just 36% of the offensive snaps — but when he was on the field, he touched the football, recording 16 carries for 66 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Ravens used three running backs in the game, as Kenyan Drake carried the ball 11 times for five yards. Edwards, Drake and Justice Hill each saw two short-yardage snaps, while Edwards led the way with two goal-line snaps and one goal-line carry. After this performance, it is likely that Edwards’ playing time and usage continue to climb, especially with J.K. Dobbins out for the next 4-6 weeks. That gives him serious touchdown upside in this offense. Over the last three seasons (prior to 2022), the Ravens are running the football 46.5% of the time in the red zone, the second-highest rate in football. And during that same span, Lamar Jackson only has 12 total rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line. The Ravens don’t use Jackson at the goal line like Buffalo does with Josh Allen or Philadelphia does with Jalen Hurts. Edwards faces a Tampa Bay run defense that has the recognition but was just destroyed to the tune of 181 yards and a touchdown to the combination of Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman last week. Edwards can be plugged into fantasy lineups as a flex play with RB2 upside.

Wide Receiver

After a two-game absence with a foot injury, Rashod Bateman returned to the lineup Sunday, hauling in four passes for 42 yards. His five targets led the team, while Bateman ran a route on about 71% of dropbacks in his first game back. Bateman has been pretty reliant on long plays so far this season and if the Ravens continue to rely on the ground attack going forward, that will remain the case. Bateman is 21st among all wide receivers in yards per target on the year (10.56), while ranking 20th in yards before the catch per reception (10.1). Against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary that will be without Carlton Davis and Antoine Winfield, Bateman settles in as a WR3.

Tight End

It was pretty surprising to see Mark Andrews score less than a fantasy point last week. He failed to haul in either of his two targets, with his only production coming on a four-yard carry. Andrews missed most of last week’s practices with a knee issue but still played 88% of the snaps and ran a route on 19-of-21 (90%) of dropbacks. He still leads the entire NFL with a target share of 32.9% and remains a must-start player who will surely bounce back Thursday night assuming he’s good to go. 

If Andrews if ruled out, Isaiah Likely and Josh Oliver become risky tight end streaming options, though I’d likely (no pun intended) reserve both for single-game DFS slates.

Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Total: 39, JAC -3
Pace: JAC: 25.8 sec/snap (1st), DEN: 27.61 sec/snap (15th)

What to watch for: James Robinson has been traded to the Jets. Meanwhile, we’ll see if Russell Wilson is back under center for the Broncos.

Jaguars

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence has thrown one touchdown over the last two weeks, but he’s scored 18.7 and 24.9 fantasy points during that stretch, ranking as the QB4 in that span. So what has propelled his recent fantasy performances? Three rushing touchdowns, as Lawrence has converted a handful of goal-line QB sneaks over the last two weeks. He has four rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line so far this season, the sixth most among all signal callers, while quietly accounting for 40% of Jacksonville’s carries from that part of the field, the third-highest rate among quarterbacks. If Lawrence continues to see meaningful goal-line work, it will help raise his floor, especially since it isn’t exactly new to see him fail to throw for a touchdown, as he’s now done it in 42% of his starts to begin his career. His Week 8 matchup is brutal, however, as Denver’s defense remains elite, surrendering the lowest passing touchdown rate in the NFL (1.2%). No team is allowing fewer points (1.33) or yards (24.5) per drive so far this season. Consider Lawrence a middling QB2 this week.

Running Back

Every single season, rookie running backs take off during the second half of the season, posting tremendous fantasy numbers. Travis Etienne isn’t a rookie (technically), but he is about to do the same exact thing.

Buckle up. 

Etienne was already taking over the Jacksonville backfield. He had outsnapped James Robinson in every game since Week 4, starting at running back in each of the last two games. Etienne started again Sunday and dominated, logging a season-high 80% of the snaps, rushing for 114 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. Robinson, meanwhile, played just 17% of the snaps and didn’t record a touch. After the game, the Jaguars said Robinson was dealing with an injury, but they were going to continue finding ways to get him on the field. 

About that… 

Robinson will be on the field, just not for the Jaguars. He was traded to the Jets Monday, paving the way for Etienne to post top-10 running back numbers the rest of the way. Etienne has been very efficient this season, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt, while his 0.25 avoided tackles per attempt ranks 12th in the league. And perhaps one of my favorite stats, Etienne ranks sixth in the league in runs of 15 or more yards this season, despite ranking 26th in rushing attempts (68). 15% of his carries have gone for 10 or more yards and while he was already cutting into Robinson’s goal-line role with wildcat plays, Etienne will now be the team’s unquestioned goal-line back. Jacksonville has done a good job run-blocking this season, as they rank second in Football Outsiders’ open field yards (1.89) and ninth in second-level yards (1.36). He’s an obvious must-start running back now and while a matchup with Denver seems tough, they have quietly been giving it up to running backs as of late. Breece Hall had 72 yards and a score on four carries against them before suffering an injury, while Austin Ekeler and Josh Jacobs found the end zone against the Broncos in Weeks 4 and 6. 

Wide Receiver

It was good to see Christian Kirk get 10 targets last week, hauling in seven passes for 96 yards, his second-highest yardage mark of the year. With Marvin Jones and Zay Jones both active, Kirk returned to a massive role out of the slot, lining up on the inside 74.5% of the time, which is up from Weeks 4 and 6 where he lined up in the slot 48.1% and 65.6% of the time. When one of Marvin or Zay Jones is inactive, it pushes Kirk to play outside more, where he hasn’t been as effective this season. He also hasn’t been nearly as efficient against man coverage, ranking 52nd in yards per route run against man coverage (1.52), compared to 25th in yards per route run against zone coverage (2.05). Kirk remains a high-end WR3 against a tough Denver defense, though he does have the best individual matchup among the Jacksonville wideouts.

Zay Jones also saw 10 targets Sunday, though he converted just four of them into 54 yards. He is quietly averaging a solid 7.8 targets per game so far this season and because he plays in the slot on around 35% of his routes, he should avoid Pat Surtain, who is legitimately a defensive back that fantasy players should look to steer clear of. He’ll line up against Damarri Mathis, who is allowing 0.29 fantasy points per coverage route on the year, as well as a 75% catch rate. Marvin Jones, meanwhile, will see coverage from Surtain, which makes him even easier of a sit than he already was, despite how much I absolutely love him. 

Tight End

The volume remains strong for Evan Engram, who saw seven more targets last game, catching four passes for 67 yards. Engram has now seen 10, 6 and 7 targets over the last three games, while eclipsing 65 receiving yards in two of those contests. The veteran tight end now ranks sixth at the position in routes run through seven weeks (212), while running a route on just over 80% of Jacksonville’s dropbacks. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, though he’s still tied for third among tight ends with four end zone looks. However, his five red zone targets are the 15th-most at the position. Engram’s usage is still overall solid, keeping him in the high-end TE2 range.

Broncos

Quarterback

With Russell Wilson (hamstring) sidelined last week, Denver turned to Brett Rypien against the Jets. The results weren’t anything special, as he completed 24-of-46 passes for 225 yards and an interception. We’ll see if Wilson is back under center for the Broncos this week but even if he is, are you really considering starting him? I know Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are on bye, but Wilson just hasn’t been getting it done. And you obviously aren’t starting Rypien in any formats if he starts for the second consecutive week. 

Running Back

After playing just nine offensive snaps in Week 6, Melvin Gordon did start the game this past Sunday, which is what head coach Nathaniel Hackett stated during the week. He played the opening drive and ultimately logged 51% of the snaps but would split early down work with Latavius Murray for most of the game, as the veteran running back played 39% of the snaps. Murray carried the ball eight times for 24 yards and a touchdown, while getting the goal-line carry and handling 4-of-6 short-yardage snaps in the game. The Broncos were also using Mike Boone on third downs, which made this a three-player backfield, but Boone suffered an ankle injury in the second quarter and did not return, with the team putting him on IR this week. In his absence, perhaps Gordon and/or Murray will become more viable fantasy options, especially if Gordon gets the passing down work. Jacksonville did get defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi back from injury and while it made an impact in the first half, Saquon Barkley still rushed for over 100 yards. Jacksonville has allowed the RB3, RB11, RB1 and RB13 in fantasy over the last four weeks, but Gordon and Murray don’t project as anything more than flex plays given how bad this offense is.

Wide Receiver

In Rypien’s first start of the season, it was Jerry Jeudy, not Courtland Sutton, who operated as Denver’s leading receiver. He was targeted on Rypien’s first four pass attempts, ultimately finishing the game with a team-high 11 targets, catching seven balls for 96 yards. Rypien appears more willing to target the middle of the field, which would help Jeudy, who is lining up out of the slot 69.5% of the time, the 16th-highest rate among qualified wide receivers. That doesn’t bode well, however, for Sutton, who is operating out wide 85.1% of the time this year, the 16th-highest rate in the league. We know that Wilson loves to throw deep down the field and towards the boundaries, which is where Sutton does most of his damage, so while it was frustrating, it wasn’t exactly shocking to see him catch just three-of-nine targets alongside Rypien. He did see nine targets, though it is clear that Sutton’s skillset meshes more with Wilson’s tendencies, despite how bad he’s been this season. If Rypien remains under center this week, both Broncos receivers look like WR3 options against the Jaguars. But if Wilson is back, I’d push Sutton back up into the WR3 range. He’s recorded at least 70 receiving yards in four of six games alongside Wilson.

Tight End

With Greg Dulcich active again, Albert Okwuegbunam was a healthy scratch for the second consecutive week. Dulcich logged 59% of the snaps on Sunday, while catching six passes for 51 yards. The rookie was targeted nine times, as Rypien relied on him in the short areas of the field. Dulcich ran a route on about 71% of dropbacks and is firmly on the streaming radar going forward. 

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Total: 42, ATL -4.5
Pace: ATL: 29.24 sec/snap (27th), CAR: 26.51 sec/snap (3rd)

What to watch for: With Casey Hayward already on IR, the Falcons lost A.J. Terrell to a hamstring injury Sunday.

Falcons

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota currently ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback (0.61). You better be efficient as hell if you are only averaging 21.4 pass attempts per game, but Mariota’s rushing totals have obviously helped. The veteran signal caller is averaging seven rushing attempts and 34 rushing yards per game on the year, both of which rank seventh among quarterbacks. His 1.7 red zone carries per game rank fifth, as the Falcons continue to utilize a ton of RPO under Arthur Smith. Mariota easily leads the league in total plays out of RPO (78). The next closest? Jalen Hurts at 41. I don’t expect Mariota to continue ranking top-five in fantasy points per dropback, though quarterbacks who add production in the rushing department tend to do well in points per dropback. Still, it is tough to have a ton of confidence in Mariota as a fantasy starter, especially since he’s scored less than 18 fantasy points in four of seven games this year. The Panthers are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards (8.3) and 14th-fewest fantasy points (14.9) per game to opposing signal callers.

Running Back

It isn’t pretty, but Tyler Allgeier is now averaging a respectable 14.6 carries per game over his last three games, as the Falcons continue to run the ball more than any team in the year of 2022 ever should. The efficiency hasn’t been there, as Allgeier has been held under 4.0 yards per carry in three straight games, but we did see him find the end zone last week, outsnapping Caleb Huntley at the goal line 4-1. Allgeier logged 62% of the snaps, a season-high, playing at least 57% of the snaps in each of the last three games. The work in the passing game is nonexistent because, well, the Falcons simply aren’t throwing the football. And when they do, they aren’t targeting the running backs, as the position has seen 11.8% of the team’s targets this season, the third-lowest rate in football. But Allgeier should continue to get 13-17 carries each week until Cordarrelle Patterson is back. He’s a low-ceiling, low-floor flex play because he doesn’t catch passes and plays in a below average offense, but opportunities will be there.

Wide Receiver

This should have been the week. The Cincinnati Bengals got up early against the Falcons and were comfortably ahead all game long. Atlanta trailed by eight or more points on 40-of-47 plays, a perfect scenario for a pass-heavy gamescript, leading to a boatload of targets for Drake London. And yet, despite trailing by at least eight points on 85% of offensive snaps, the Falcons still ran the football 64.4% of the time. In a game the Falcons lost 35-17, Mariota attempted 13 passes. That is actually disgusting. Over the course of the season, Atlanta is sporting the league’s second-highest rush rate when trailing by eight or more points (54.9%), while their overall rush rate in neutral gamescripts of 57.6% is the highest rate in football. It is going to be impossible for Drake London to post top-30 numbers in this offense, as he’s seen just 12 targets over the last three games. He’s still dominating targets, which is great, ranking sixth in the league in target share (30.9%). However, a 30% target share on a team averaging 21.4 pass attempts per game doesn’t do a whole lot. With the Falcons as four-point home favorites, this is a dream scenario for Arthur Smith to possibly set the NFL record for rush attempts in a game. London really can’t be started right now.

Tight End

See Drake London above.

I mean, seriously. The same issues that have plagued London as of late are hurting Kyle Pitts, who caught three passes for nine yards on Sunday. He was inches away from a touchdown, which would have given him his second consecutive game with a score. At least Pitts logged 79% of the snaps, his highest snap share since Week 2, while running a route on 79% of dropbacks, which is encouraging given his rates in previous weeks. The talent is still second to none, but the Falcons have little interest in maximizing it, which is capping Pitts’ ceiling. The tight end position is still shallow, but I have zero issues if you decide to bench Pitts right now.

Panthers

Quarterback

After sporting an aDOT of 0.1 yards in Week 6, PJ Walker was much better last week, completing 16-of-22 passes for 177 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Carolina’s upset win over Tampa Bay. Walker’s aDOT climbed to a realistic 8.5 yards Sunday, and he’ll continue to start at quarterback for the Panthers, regardless of the status of both Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. He’ll face a struggling, banged-up Atlanta defense that was just destroyed last week and are coughing up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers on the year (21.3). There still isn’t a massive ceiling, but if you are really desperate at quarterback in a superflex league, you could do worse than Walker this week.

Running Back

In Carolina’s first game since the Christian McCaffrey trade, the Panthers deployed a backfield committee. Chuba Hubbard got the start at running back, rushing for 63 yards and a touchdown on nine carries, while adding a pair of receptions. He logged 46% of the snaps, while D’Onta Foreman played 54% of the snaps, carrying the football 15 times for 118 yards. Hubbard did suffer an ankle injury early in the fourth quarter and did not return, though the Panthers said he “could have come back in if needed,” which tells me the injury isn’t serious. Heading into the weekend, Carolina said they would use the hot hand at running back but it turns out that both Panthers running backs had the hot hand against the reeling Buccaneers. Hubbard did outsnap Foreman prior to the fourth quarter, while 11 of Foreman’s 15 carries came in the final quarter with Hubbard on the sideline. Assuming he is good to go this weekend, Hubbard should be ranked ahead of Foreman and projects as a viable flex play against an Atlanta defense that is allowing the second-most points (2.46), most yards (41.3) and most plays (6.8) per drive this season. 

Wide Receiver

Is DJ Moore gaining momentum? With McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson out of town, Moore is the clear top player in this offense, and Carolina played through him Sunday, targeting him 10 times. He caught seven passes for 69 yards and a touchdown, sporting an awesome 47% target share. Moore has now posted target shares of 28% and 47% alongside Walker over the last two weeks and while the efficiency is unlikely to be outstanding, the volume should be able to help Moore post WR3 numbers going forward, especially as the clear top player in this offense. This week’s matchup is great, facing a bad Atlanta defense that will be without their top two defensive backs in A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward. No team in football is allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season, while four receivers have reached 100 yards against them. He should see coverage from Darren Hall in this game, who is allowing a 137.7 passer rating and 14.3 yards per reception in coverage this season.

Tight End

Tommy Tremble found the end zone last week, but you still should not be starting any tight ends from the Carolina Panthers going forward. 

Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys

Total: 43, DAL -9.5
Pace: DAL: 27.95 sec/snap (19th), CHI: 28.06 sec/snap (21st)

What to watch for: Ezekiel Elliott suffered a contusion last week but finished the game.

Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott returned to the lineup last week, though he didn’t have to do much, as Dallas’ defense and ground attack controlled the game. Prescott completed 19-of-25 passes for 207 yards and a touchdown in his first game back and stays home to host the Chicago Bears. The Bears have been a run funnel this season, as just 54.6% of the yardage against them has come through the air, the lowest rate in the NFL, while 33.3% of the touchdowns against this unit have been via the pass, also the lowest rate. They are facing the second-fewest pass attempts per game in the league (27.6), but this could easily be another game where Dallas leans on the ground game. Prescott is a back-end QB1 for Week 8. 

Running Back

As expected, the Cowboys backfield played a huge role against a poor Lions run defense last week. Ezekiel Elliott rushed 15 times for 57 yards and a pair of touchdowns and while he exited the game after taking a hard hit to the leg, he returned and finished the game. He once again was a nonfactor in the passing game, as Elliott failed to catch a pass for the second time this season, while recording one reception or less in all but one game this season. Tony Pollard, meanwhile, rushed for 83 yards on 12 carries, while adding a pair of receptions for 26 yards. Pollard did log 65% of the snaps to Elliott’s 49% snap share, which was his lowest share of the season, but that was mostly due to Elliott missing some time. Both running backs can be started against a Bears run defense that is coughing up 25 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (eighth most), as well as 149.7 rushing yards per game (fourth most).

Note: If Ezekiel Elliott actually misses this game, Tony Pollard becomes an obvious top-15 RB.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb remains a must-start wide receiver, despite seeing a season-low six targets. He still recorded 70 receiving yards and his 32.2% target share is the fourth-highest mark in all of football this season. Lamb, who is operating out of the slot around 60% of the time this season, should run over half of his routes against rookie defensive back Kyler Gordon, who is allowing 0.43 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season, one of the highest marks in the league. He is also allowing an 80% catch rate in coverage and a reception every 5.9 coverage snaps, the fifth-worst mark among qualified defensive backs in slot coverage. Gordon has also allowed the second-most yards in slot coverage (297), along with two touchdowns. With Lamb also ranking fifth in percentage of team air yards (39.5%), he has elite usage, and his starting quarterback is back in action. He’s a borderline WR1 for me.

Michael Gallup posted a zero last week, failing to catch any of his two targets. He’s still playing a ton, but this is a tough spot, as he’ll draw coverage from Jaylon Johnson, who has been targeted just 12 times in coverage all season long and is one of the best young defensive backs in the league.

Tight End

After dealing with injury and failing to establish a rapport with Cooper Rush, Dalton Schultz got back on track a bit last week, catching all five of his targets for 49 yards. Schultz played 65% of the snaps in this game, his highest snap share since Week 4, while running a route on 60% of dropbacks, numbers that more than likely rise going forward. He appeared to re-aggravate his PCL injury but came back in the game. With Prescott back, Schultz becomes an interesting buy-low candidate for teams that are hurting at the tight end position. He’s a top-10 tight end for me going forward.

Bears

Quarterback

Don’t look now, but Justin Fields is the QB4 in fantasy over the last three weeks, averaging 20.2 fantasy points per game. Fields has rushed for 80 yards in each of the last two games, while rushing for at least 40 yards in all but two games this season. He is averaging 9.7 carries per game this year, the second most at the quarterback position, while his 52 rushing yards per game also rank second. If Fields would start throwing the ball 30-plus times per game, he could consistently flirt with top-12 numbers, but that isn’t going to happen in this Bears offense. Still, recording consecutive games with double-digit rushing attempts certainly helps. A road matchup against the Cowboys is tough, as Dallas is sporting the league’s highest pressure rate at 32.6%, while they are allowing the fourth-lowest passing touchdown rate (2.5%) and second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (10.6). Fields is trending upward but remains a middling QB2 in this tough spot.

Running Back

During the week, Bears head coach Matt Eberflus stated that the team would go with the hot hand approach at running back. And Monday night, it was much more of a committee, as David Montgomery logged 56% of the snaps and carried the ball 15 times for 62 yards and a touchdown. Khalil Herbert, meanwhile, played 41% of the snaps, touching the ball 13 times for 87 yards. Prior to this game, the Bears running back rotation was an easy one to dissect, as Montgomery would play two series, followed by one for Herbert and so on and so forth. And last week’s game started that way, only for Herbert to start the second half. Montgomery is still going to be ranked ahead of Herbert for me, but Herbert is no longer a player you simply cannot start when Montgomery is active. Of course, it would require the Bears to remain competitive in games, but Herbert is a viable flex play, while Montgomery is a low-end RB2 against Dallas.

Wide Receiver

Darnell Mooney got off to a good start Monday, hauling in three passes for 53 yards in the first half. However, with Chicago in control, Fields attempted just eight second-half passes and Mooney didn’t record another catch the rest of the way. It was still his fourth consecutive game with at least 50 receiving yards, which is an even more impressive feat when you consider how little this Bears team is throwing the football. And he still saw 29% of the team’s targets, giving him a healthy 29.5% target share for the season. If the Bears would start airing it out on offense, Mooney would have the upside of seeing 12-15 targets, but the Bears are still running the football 58.8% of the time when trailing by eight or more points this season, the highest rate in the NFL. Mooney’s matchup this week is fine, as he should avoid Trevon Diggs for much of this game considering the Bears have moved him into the slot more this season, as his slot rate has climbed from 45% to 61.3% this season. That means he’ll see Anthony Brown, who is allowing nearly 0.30 fantasy points per coverage route and no defensive back has seen more targets in coverage this year (55). Mooney remains a WR3.

Tight End

Don’t start Cole Kmet. The tight end position is shallow, but it isn’t that shallow.

Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions

Total: 51.5, MIA -3.5
Pace: DET: 29.06 sec/snap (25th), MIA: 27.81 sec/snap (18th)

What to watch for: D’Andre Swift is getting closer but did not play following Detroit’s bye last week. Amon-Ra St. Brown left last week’s game but was not diagnosed with a concussion.

Lions

Quarterback

After a hot start to the season, Jared Goff has now failed to score a touchdown in consecutive games. Of course, the Lions offense continues to deal with multiple key injuries, which certainly doesn’t help. He’s also been in two difficult spots, playing in Dallas and in New England. Back at home in a game with a high total, I definitely have more interest in Goff this week, especially if this offense is back at full strength. Miami has been a pass funnel on the year, as 71.1% of the yardage against this defense has come through the air, the eighth-highest rate in football. The Dolphins are also coughing up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (19.6) to go along with the sixth-highest yards per pass attempt (7.6). Miami is also sporting the fourth-lowest pressure rate in football (15.5%), which bodes well for Goff, who has been below average when under pressure this season, ranking 19th in completion rate (47.5%) and 21st in adjusted completion rate (64%). I like Goff as a streaming quarterback this weekend.

Running Back

With D’Andre Swift once again sidelined last week, Jamaal Williams got the start at running back and carried the ball 15 times for 79 yards. He should have had a one-yard touchdown, which would have made his day very solid, but fumbled the football. Over his last four starts, Williams is averaging a healthy 18.2 touches per game and remains the clear goal-line running back, regardless of Swift’s status. Williams ranks second in the league in carries from inside the 5-yard line (10), while handling 100% of Detroit’s carries from that part of the field. If Swift does finally return, Williams will remain on the flex radar and likely sees 10-12 touches, along with goal-line work. 

Swift, meanwhile, would be a mid-range RB2 for me. The Lions really want to limit his workload after dealing with plenty of injuries throughout his first few seasons, and I fully expect that to continue in his first game back. Swift can clearly make an impact on 12-15 touches and in a small sample this year, he’s been insanely efficient. Of his 27 rushing attempts, six have gone for at least 10 yards, four have gone for at least 15 yards, two for 50. The Lions offensive line is generating plenty of running lanes, as Detroit is fifth in the league in yards before contact per attempt this year (2.86), while Swift individually is averaging over five yards before contact per rush. Miami’s run defense is really good, as 24% of the runs against them this year have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the third-highest rate in football. But as long as Swift is active, I am starting him.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown was limited back in Week 5 before the bye, logging just 32% of the snaps. Coming out of the bye, St. Brown was ready to roll but took a hit up high early in Week 7 against the Cowboys. It ended his day, but St. Brown has been cleared of having a concussion, which puts him on track to play this week. Like Swift, as long as St. Brown is active, I am starting him, especially against a Miami defense that is coughing up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Despite playing less than half of the snaps in two games, St. Brown is still averaging eight targets per game this season and is an obvious must-start against a Miami defense that gives it up to opposing wideouts.

Tight End

After his incredible 8-catch, 179-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 4, T.J. Hockenson has totaled 54 receiving yards on five receptions in two games since. If you just look at Hockenson’s game log this season, it is comically obvious which game is the outlier, and it’s the game that, by the way, came without St. Brown. His underlying numbers are solid, as Hockenson ranks ninth in yards per target (8.1), fifth in yards per reception (13.70) and ninth in yards per route run (1.71) among tight ends this season. This is a fine matchup, as Miami is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points (14.9), sixth-most targets (8.0) and third-most receptions (6.7) per game to opposing tight ends this year.

Dolphins

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup Sunday night, following a two-week absence. He completed 21-of-35 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown, though he certainly tried to throw multiple interceptions. More importantly, however, it was awesome to see Tagovailoa back on the field and healthy. Miami’s offense underwhelmed last week but are in a prime get-right spot against the lowly Lions defense this week. Opposing offenses are scoring points on 45.5% of drives against Detroit this season, the second-highest rate in the league, while no team is allowing more points per drive than the Lions (2.64). They are also coughing up the second-highest passing touchdown rate in the league (8.0%), and no team is allowing a higher aDOT (9.2), which could bode well for Tua — 13% of his pass attempts have traveled 20-plus yards down the field. The Lions also play man coverage as much as any team in the league and Tagovailoa ranks sixth in yards per pass attempt (9.0) against man coverage this season. And according to Player Profiler, Tagovailoa is sporting the league’s second-best passer rating against the defense (128.2). Consider Tua a back-end QB1 in this awesome matchup. 

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert’s run as Miami’s clear lead running back continued Sunday night, as he rushed for 79 yards on 16 carries, while adding four receptions for 30 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Mostert played 71% of the snaps and handled 20 of the 27 running back touches in Miami. Chase Edmonds carried the ball seven times and logged 29% of the snaps. Since Week 4, Mostert ranks seventh in the league in rushing attempts (63), ninth in rushing yards (310), 12th in avoided tackles (11) and 15th in fantasy points (56.0). His strong play should continue against a Lions run defense that is coughing up the second-most rushing yards per game (162.8), as well as the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (29.2). The Lions are also allowing more rushing touchdowns per game than any other team to opposing running backs (1.67). It is tough to not consider Mostert a must-start player right now. 

Raheem Mostert since Week 4

Wide Receiver

Continue to start both Miami wide receivers in every format.

Tyreek Hill had a “down” game last week but still caught seven passes for 72 yards, illustrating how terrific he’s been during his first year in Miami. Hill was targeted 13 times, giving him double-digit targets in four of the five games Tagovailoa has played in this season. His 32.3% target share is the third-highest mark in the league through seven weeks and has WR1 overall upside most weeks, but especially this week. Hill faces a Lions defense that, as we already discussed, plays a ton of man coverage. Playing man coverage against Hill is extremely risky, as he ranks fourth among all qualified wideouts in yards per route run against man coverage this year (4.07). And per Player Profiler, Hill is averaging a healthy 2.03 fantasy points per target versus man coverage. We have seen Jeff Okudah shadow multiple wide receivers this year, including Justin Jefferson, DeVonta Smith and Terry McLaurin, and he’s done a stellar job. But you are still starting Hill, who will still see plenty of coverage from Amani Oruwariye, who has allowed 0.43 fantasy points per coverage route, three scores and a 130.1 passer rating in coverage so far this season. The Dolphins continue to find plenty of ways to get Hill the football, as he ranks top-five in both targets (11) and receptions (9) off screens. 

Jaylen Waddle recorded 88 receiving yards last week, though he was only targeted five times. Miami is scheming touches and targets a lot more often for Hill than Waddle, as Waddle’s target share is only at 21.9%. However, he and Hill are still dominating the usage in this offense, as the duo has accounted for 53% of Miami’s targets, 55% of their receptions and over 67% of their receiving yards. Waddle could easily get behind the defense for a splash play this week, especially against a Lions defense that is allowing the highest aDOT in the league (9.2 yard). Waddle is a high-end WR2 here.

Tight End

In Week 6, Mike Gesicki set season-highs in snap share (64%) and route participation (76.3%), while seeing seven targets. I was a bit skeptical of the recent uptick in usage considering Durham Smythe was inactive but even with Smythe active on Sunday night, Gesicki still logged a healthy 61% of the snaps, while running a route on over 68% of dropbacks. He was targeted seven times for the second consecutive week and saw an end zone target that he should have converted into a touchdown. That usage, even with Smythe back, is encouraging and keeps Gesicki in the TE12-14 range against a Lions team that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game (15.8) to opposing tight ends.

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings

Total: 49, MIN -3.5
Pace: MIN: 27.09 sec/snap (8th), ARI: 26.75 sec/snap (5th)

What to watch for: James Conner (ribs) has missed the last two games, along with Darrel Williams.

Vikings

Quarterback

The Vikings are coming off their bye and Kirk Cousins will host a fast-paced Arizona team that ranks fifth in pace and first in no-huddle rate so far this season (37.7%). Cousins has been a bit up-and-down so far this season, ranking 18th in fantasy points per dropback (0.41) and reaching 20 fantasy points just once in six tries. He’ll face the blitz-heavy Cardinals this week, a defense that is blitzing at the second-highest rate in the league (36.8%). Cousins, meanwhile, has struggled against the blitz so far this season, sporting the league’s 32nd-best completion rate (53.3%) against the blitz, ranking last among 37 qualified signal callers in yards per attempt (4.5). That definitely isn’t the most encouraging sign, but Minnesota’s offense should also be able to move the football against an Arizona defense that is allowing opposing offenses to score points on 45.8% of drives this year, the highest rate in the NFL. 

Running Back

Dalvin Cook is finally scoring touchdowns, finding the end zone four times over the last four games, which is great to see after having some awful touchdown luck a season ago. Since Week 3, Cook is averaging a solid 18.2 touches per game, though his usage in the passing game has been a bit underwhelming. We have seen Alexander Mattison play plenty of third downs over the last few weeks, but Cook is still handling the majority of the carries, especially from in close. He’s an obvious top-12 running back against a strong Arizona run defense that is coughing up the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (20.7). 27% of the runs against the Cardinals this season have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, tied for the highest rate in the league but Cook is still in line for 18-20 touches and is playing well lately.

Wide Receiver

Each week I discuss how impressive the Arizona defense has been against opposing No. 1 wide receivers this year. Sure, they have been amazing, but it really doesn’t matter, because you aren’t sitting Justin Jefferson. Plus, we did see Chris Olave catch seven passes for 106 yards last Thursday. Anyway, Jefferson remains one of the three best wideouts in football and has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in each of his last three contests. Jefferson has a 30% target share and 38% air yards share so far this season, both clearly elite rates. Continue to start him and enjoy your fantasy points.

On the off chance that Arizona continues to shut down opposing top wideouts and Jefferson underwhelms, perhaps that will lead to a strong game from Adam Thielen. He found the end zone before the bye week, though he was held under 40 receiving yards for the third time this season. While the target totals aren’t elite, they are consistent and solid, as Thielen has seen at least seven targets in each of his last five games. His 13 red zone targets rank 14th in the league, just one behind Jefferson. Thielen remains a high-end WR3, though his production is likely going to be lacking without a touchdown.

Tight End

Irv Smith caught four passes for only seven yards (how?) but saved his day with a one-yard touchdown reception. The ceiling is low as the fourth (sometimes fifth) option in this offense, but Smith should be in line for 4-6 targets. This is a really good matchup, too, facing an Arizona team that is surrendering the second-most fantasy points (20.5), second-most targets (9.0), most receptions (7.3) and second-most receiving yards (77) per game to opposing tight ends on the year. We just watched them surrender three touchdowns to the combination of Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson last Thursday night.

Cardinals

Quarterback

Would you believe Kyler Murray currently ranks outside the top-15 quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback? It’s true, as Murray continues to struggle getting the football down the field. He is sporting the sixth-lowest intended air yards per pass attempt (6.7), while his 2.8 completed air yards per pass attempt is tied for the second-lowest mark in the league. Murray is also struggling in the red zone, completing just 43.2% of his passes from that part of the field, which ranks just 26th in the league. He is also completing just 28.5% of his passes from inside the 10-yard line, which is tied for the worst rate in all of football, a number that was around 42% a year ago. Hopefully that changes going forward with DeAndre Hopkins back, but Murray has been a disappointment through seven weeks. Perhaps a matchup with Minnesota will help, as the Vikings are allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 12-of-15 (80%) red zone trips on the year, the highest rate in the NFL. They are also allowing a league-worst 8.4 yards per attempt and the fifth-highest aDOT this season, which could present opportunities for Murray to make some plays down the field. Let’s hope this is the start of a terrific stretch of games for Murray.

Running Back

With James Conner and Darrel Williams once again sidelined last Thursday, Eno Benjamin got the start at running back. He split more work with Keontay Ingram in this game but was still great, carrying the football 12 times for 92 yards and a touchdown, while adding four receptions for an additional 21 yards. After playing over 80% of the snaps and handling 18-of-21 running back touches in Week 6, Benjamin still played 73% of the snaps, though Ingram had 11 touches, including a goal-line touchdown. If Conner remains sidelined, Benjamin still projects as a strong RB2, especially against a vulnerable Minnesota run defense that has allowed eight rushing scores, tied for the fifth-most in football. If Conner does return, however, I’d expect him to be limited, which would be a mess for fantasy. Keep an eye on this situation throughout the week.

Wide Receiver

Do you think the Cardinals were excited to have DeAndre Hopkins back last week?

In his 2022 debut, Hopkins hauled in 10-of-14 targets for 103 yards, as it was no secret what Arizona’s gameplan was in this game. Hopkins posted a whopping 48% target share in his first game back, which is great to see considering his 6.1 targets per game from a season ago were a career low. For once, I liked how Kliff Kingsbury utilized Hopkins, as he lined up in the slot 27 times (42.4%), which is way higher than his 2021 slot rate of 14.9%. Last season, Hopkins essentially didn’t move from the left side of the formation, lining up there 74% of the time. If this usage continues, Hopkins is going to be much more consistent and less touchdown dependent than he was a year ago. And with Marquise Brown sidelined, Hopkins should continue to dominate the targets. As for this week’s matchup, you have to like it. Hopkins will line up against Cameron Dantzler, who is allowing a 75% catch rate in coverage this year, along with 0.25 fantasy points per coverage route. And if he continues to play inside, he’ll see Chandon Sullivan, who is allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage route, as well as an 83% catch rate and a league-high 347 receiving yards in slot coverage. Hopkins is a top-seven wide receiver and if your team is still in the hunt and you added him last week, you are in good shape.

It appeared like Rondale Moore was going to have a strong game last week. He caught a 31-yard pass on the opening drive of the game but failed to register a catch the rest of the way, though he almost hauled in an end zone fade. Moore still played 89% of the snaps, as Arizona continues to run as many three-wide sets as any team in football, however, he played out wide in Hopkins’ return. Greg Dortch, not A.J. Green, operated as the WR3 and because Dortch can’t play on the perimeter, it pushed Moore to the outside on 79% of his snaps, while Dortch played in the slot 83% of the time. I’d imagine once Robbie Anderson, who played just 13 snaps, is more acclimated to the offense, Moore would operate as the full-time slot wide receiver, at least until Hollywood Brown is back. There is suddenly some uncertainty in this wide receiver room after Hopkins but if Moore returns to his usual role out of the slot, he could succeed, as he’d get that same strong matchup against Sullivan. 

Tight End

Even with Hopkins back, I didn’t expect Zach Ertz to only see four targets, though Murray did only attempt 29 passes, easily his lowest total in a game this season. I don’t expect Ertz to see less than seven or eight targets many weeks this season and despite the quiet outing, the veteran tight end remains a must-start player in fantasy. Ertz still ranks fourth among all tight ends in end zone targets (4), while his 14 red zone looks are tied for the ninth-most in all of football. The Vikings, meanwhile, are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this year (15.2) and when we last saw them, they allowed a pair of touchdowns to Mike Gesicki.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 43.5, PHI -10.5
Pace: PHI: 28.07 sec/snap (22nd), PIT: 26.8 sec/snap (6th)

What to watch for: The Eagles traded for Robert Quinn, adding to an already loaded defensive unit.

Eagles

Quarterback

The Eagles are also coming off a bye and, as you have been throughout the first six games of the season, continue to start Jalen Hurts with the utmost confidence. Averaging 24.6 fantasy points per game this year, Hurts has been amazing, He’s averaging an impressive 0.67 fantasy points per dropback, leading Philadelphia’s unstoppable offense. Hurts is averaging 12.8 rush attempts per game, which not only leads all quarterbacks, but ranks top-20 in all of football. He is also averaging 48.8 rushing yards and 4.2 red zone carries per game, both of which lead the quarterback position. Hurts has also accounted for over 70% of Philadelphia’s carries from inside the 5-yard line on the year, giving him an amazing combination of floor and ceiling. Pittsburgh’s secondary has been playing better as of late but are still surrendering the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (19.5).

Running Back

Miles Sanders has been fantastic this season, rushing for 485 yards and four touchdowns on 105 carries. Efficiency is nothing new for Sanders, who has been one of the most efficient backs in the league since entering the NFL. Over the last three years, Sanders has ranked seventh, 13th and 15th in yards per touch. He’s truly been one of the best running backs in football when it comes to ripping off long runs. In 2021, 35% of Sanders’ rushing attempts went for 15 yards or more, good for the sixth-best rate among qualified running backs. And in 2020 and 2019, Sanders ranked 11th and ninth in breakaway run rate. So far in 2022, 13 of his 105 rushes have gone for 10 or more yards (seventh most), despite missing a game. He is averaging over 18 rushing attempts per game on the year and even with Boston Scott back, it hasn’t cut into Sanders’ role. If Hurts didn’t get so many carries from inside the 5-yard line, Sanders would have easy top-12 upside in this offense but he’s still seventh among running backs with six carries from inside the five-yard line. Against a Steelers defense that has allowed a running back to find the end zone against them in all but one game this year, Sanders is a strong RB2.

RBs vs. Pittsburgh since Week 2

Wide Receiver

Both Philadelphia wideouts found the end zone against Dallas in Week 6 before the bye and now are in stellar spots in Week 8. Pittsburgh continues to get destroyed by opposing wide receivers, allowing nine different wide receivers to record at least 95 receiving yards or a touchdown this season, while five different wideouts have eclipsed 100 yards against the Steelers. Brown has been very good this season, recording either 65 yards or a touchdown in five-of-six games, while he ranks fifth among wide receivers in target share (30.6%) and second in air yards share (43.1%). His 6.6 yards after the catch per reception ranks fifth among all wide receivers with at least 30 targets this season, while the Steelers are coughing up the eighth-most yards after the catch in the NFL (873). 

Smith has had two horrible games this year but outside of that, he’s been very solid. The targets and overall consistency won’t be as strong as Brown, but Smith still presents a ton of upside, especially in matchups this favorable. He’ll likely see coverage from Levi Wallace, who is allowing 0.31 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season, while Pittsburgh is allowing an aDOT of 8.7 yards, the sixth-highest mark in the league. They have also allowed four touchdown passes of 20 yards or more, tied for the most in football. Start Smith as a back-end WR2 this weekend.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert had a quiet Week 6 outing against Dallas, catching just two-of-six targets for 22 yards. Still, he’s arguably the third-best tight end in fantasy the rest of the season and should remain in all starting lineups. His 10.5 yards per target lead all tight ends this season, while also leading the position in yards per reception (13.7) and ranking fifth in yards per route run (1.84). 

Steelers

Quarterback

Kenny Pickett left last week’s game with a concussion, but a full week of practice led to him starting on Sunday night. He wasn’t great, completing 32-of-44 passes for 257 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. A road matchup with a tough Eagles defense is up next, though if Pickett is in your starting lineups, your fantasy team is more than likely in trouble. Philadelphia ranks sixth in the league in pressure rate (25.2%) and are allowing the ninth-lowest passing touchdown rate (3.1%).

Running Back

Surprisingly, Najee Harris is coming off his first 20-touch game of the season Sunday night, though he totaled an uninspiring 80 scrimmage yards. As is the case with Harris, efficiency was not on his side, though there simply aren’t many running backs with a path to 20 touches right now, which keeps Harris in the low-end RB2 range. We have seen a slight uptick in work in the passing game, too, as Harris has seen a healthy 11 targets over the last three games. More work in the passing game would be huge for Harris to help mask the inefficiency on the ground. The Steelers are generating just 1.5 yards before contact per carry this season, a bottom-five rate in the league, but Harris should continue to see 17-20 touches each week. Unless you are absolutely loaded at running back after adding players off waivers such as Kenneth Walker, Eno Benjamin or Raheem Mostert, I’d probably just start Harris and hope he falls into the end zone.

Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson returned to his double-digit target ways, but it didn’t lead to much fantasy production, as he caught just five passes for 42 yards. Johnson has the most targets in football (67) without scoring a touchdown this season, while failing to reach 60 receiving yards in five games on the year. The volume has remained strong for Johnson, though, like Harris, he also has struggled with efficiency, as he is sporting the seventh-lowest yards per target (5.18), 10th-lowest yards per reception (8.87) and fourth-lowest yards after the catch per reception (1.47) among qualified wide receivers on the year. The efficiency doesn’t project to improve in a road matchup against Darius Slay and James Bradberry, who have been two of the best defensive backs in all of football this season. Johnson is a middling WR3 with a limited ceiling.

Meanwhile, George Pickens is actually somewhat intriguing here, despite the tough matchup. He was Pittsburgh’s best player on offense last Sunday night, catching all six of his targets for 61 yards and a touchdown, as the rookie continues to enjoy playing alongside Pickett. In four games with Pickett under center this season, Pickens is averaging nearly three more targets, 3.58 receptions, 46.5 receiving yards and 9.7 more fantasy points per game. Pickett continues to give him opportunities to make plays down the field in single coverage and Pickens is doing just that. He’ll be ranked as my No. 2 Steelers wide receiver for this week, and possibly not too far behind Johnson.

Finally, Chase Claypool was targeted eight times, catching five passes for 41 yards. After seeing most of his Week 6 targets once Mitch Trubisky entered the game, it was at least encouraging to see Claypool see eight looks from Pickett last week, though the Steelers did attempt 44 passes. Still, Claypool is nothing more than a desperation flex play in deeper formats. 

Tight End

After missing a game with a concussion, Pat Freiermuth returned to the lineup and was productive, catching 8-of-9 targets for 75 yards. He’s seen at least seven targets in four-of-six games this year and has been fairly safe for most of the season. The Eagles have been good against tight ends this season but given how their defense is constructed, passes tend to funnel towards the middle of the field against them, which could easily be the case in this game. Opposing tight ends are also averaging a healthy 7.8 targets per game against Philadelphia this season, the eighth-most in football. Freiermuth remains a rock-solid TE1 in fantasy.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints

Total: 49.5, LV -2
Pace: NO: 27.4 sec/snap (13th), LV: 27.98 sec/snap (20th)

What to watch for: Michael Thomas has missed the last four games with a foot injury, while Jarvis Landry hasn’t played since Week 4. For the Raiders, Darren Waller missed Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury.

Saints

Quarterback

Andy Dalton had some problems last Thursday, tossing three interceptions. He did battle back, ultimately finishing the game with 361 yards and four touchdowns, too. New Orleans is going to stick with him as the starting quarterback, however, this Saints offense has been tough to project each week because we don’t know who is going to be on the field. If New Orleans has all of their pass-catchers healthy, Dalton will be on the streaming radar, though there is added risk considering that if he struggles to start the game, the Saints could easily turn to Jameis Winston. The Raiders are allowing the second-highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL right now (5.9%), while also sporting the league’s sixth-lowest pressure rate (18.6%). They are also coughing up the most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (22.3), while every quarterback they have faced this season has finished as a QB1 for that given week. 

Running Back

Alvin Kamara is going to find the end zone eventually, right?

The lack of touchdowns has been the only thing holding Kamara back, as he’s been outstanding since returning from injury in Week 3. During that stretch, Kamara is averaging 124 scrimmage yards, 5.2 receptions and 7.7 targets per game, ranking as the RB13, despite not scoring a single touchdown and missing a game. His usage in the passing game appears to be safer with Dalton under center, as he’s returned to seeing most of the touches, averaging 22.2 touches and 71% of the snaps since Week 3. The frustrating aspect, however, is the fact that he has just one carry from inside the 5-yard line so far this season, while ranking outside the top-20 in red zone carries with 11. Regardless, Kamara will remain a top-10 running back against a Raiders defense that is surrendering the third-most receptions (7.0), second-most targets (9.2) and second-most receiving yards (55) per game to opposing running backs this season. 

Wide Receiver

Chris Olave returned to the lineup after a one-week absence. With Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry sidelined, he immediately stepped in as the Saints leading receiver. He caught seven passes for 106 yards against an Arizona team that has shut down opposing top receivers, while also seeing a whopping 14 targets. Olave has seen at least a 30% target share in three of his last five games and has been targeted on over 30% of his routes with Thomas out of the lineup. He is also seeing plenty of work down the field, as Olave ranks fourth in all of football in yards before the catch per reception (13.0) and sixth in aDOT (16.3 yards), which is even more impressive considering how high his target share is. His 912 air yards still lead the league, while Olave has seen 37.6% of the Saints’ air yards, the eighth-highest rate among all wide receivers. Regardless of who plays for the Saints this weekend, Olave is a must-start player.

If Thomas finally returns to the lineup, I’m probably starting him as a low-end WR2. He is averaging a solid 7.3 targets per game this season and should play plenty of snaps from the slot, which is exactly what you want when facing the Raiders, who have struggled to defend slot receivers all year long. They just allowed a 25-yard touchdown from the slot to Phillip Dorsett last week and over the course of the season, are bottom-seven in fantasy points allowed to the slot. Slot defensive back Amik Robertson is allowing 0.31 fantasy points per coverage route this season, as well as an 87% catch rate. Hopefully Thomas can get back on the field this week but if he can’t and Landry is back, he’ll be a viable WR3 in deep PPR leagues, as he’ll undoubtedly play in the slot.

Slot WRs vs. Las Vegas this year

Tight End

Taysom Hill remains a borderline top-10 tight end. The Saints are using him in a variety of ways, especially last week where he threw two passes for 48 yards, rushed three times and caught a few passes, including a designed screen pass from inside the five-yard line that he converted into a touchdown. He has seen 25% of New Orleans’ rushing attempts from the red zone and 20% of their attempts from inside the 5-yard line this season and has as much touchdown equity as any “tight end” in the back end of the rankings for fantasy.

Raiders

Quarterback

Derek Carr played well last week but the Raiders ground attack did most of the work. He completed 21-of-27 passes for 241 yards and a touchdown. It was just his second game of the year where he failed to score multiple touchdowns, but he remains a back-end QB1 for me in a potential high-scoring affair in New Orleans. The Saints defense is struggling right now and will continue to struggle if Marshon Lattimore doesn’t return. Over the last three weeks, the Saints are coughing up the sixth-highest yards per attempt (7.8), second-most passing touchdowns per game (2.3) and the highest passer rating (121.7). Meanwhile, their 17% pressure rate is the fifth-lowest mark in the league, which could bode well for Carr, who ranks sixth in passing touchdowns from a clean pocket this year (9). Expect a strong game from Carr this week.

Running Back

It is unbelievable what Josh Jacobs is doing right now. Over his last three games, Jacobs has posted stat lines of 20-143-3, 21-154-1 and 28-144-2. Those are video game numbers, as the Raiders continue to utilize Jacobs as the clear lead back. The offseason concerns about Josh McDaniels deploying a committee have been silenced, as Jacobs is averaging 22 touches per game this season, while logging at least 80% of the offensive snaps in each of his last three outings. Jacobs ranks top-three in the league in opportunity share and is clearly a player you are starting each and every week. He’ll face a Saints run defense that has been elite over the last few years but has taken a step back in 2022. They just allowed over 100 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns to the Arizona running backs last week and over the last three weeks, are allowing 5.7 yards per carry, the third-worst mark in the league.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams had a strong game in Week 6, catching 8-of-9 targets for 95 yards. It was just the second time all year he failed to score a touchdown, but Adams is still tied for the league-lead in end zone targets with nine, while his 20 red zone targets are the third-most in football, despite already having his bye week. You are obviously starting him no matter what, but if Lattimore remains sidelined for the Saints, Adams could go crazy. The Saints have allowed consecutive 100-yard games to DeAndre Hopkins and Ja’Marr Chase without Lattimore over the last two weeks and are now allowing the fifth-most fantasy points and seventh-most receiving yards (181.6) per game to opposing wideouts this season. They have allowed a 100-yard receiver in each of their last four games, too.

Over his last two games, Hunter Renfrow has seen just seven total targets. We knew the volume was going to come down after the addition of Adams but with the Raiders also leaning more on Jacobs and the running game, the volume is a serious concern for Renfrow. Hopefully the Saints offense can push the Raiders to throw the football more but right now, it is difficult to rely on Renfrow as anything more than a low-ceiling WR3.

Tight End

Darren Waller missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury and in his absence, Foster Moreau drew the start at tight end. Moreau logged 54-of-56 snaps (96%), while running a route on over 72% of dropbacks. He saw five targets and if Waller remains sidelined, Moreau will be a viable streaming candidate at the tight end position. If Waller is back, you are starting him, though I’m not automatically banking on top-five numbers upon his return. 

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Total: 40.5, NE -1.5
Pace: NYJ: 27.38 sec/snap (12th), NE: 29.57 sec/snap (28th)

What to watch for: Breece Hall suffered a torn ACL, resulting in the Jets trading for James Robinson. For the Patriots, both Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe played snaps at QB last week.

Jets

Quarterback

You cannot start Zach Wilson in fantasy. The Jets have been relying on their strong defensive play and running game as of late, asking Wilson to do nothing more than manage the game. Over his last three games, Wilson is averaging just 21.6 pass attempts per game and over his last two games, has thrown for 231 yards and zero touchdowns. Perhaps the passing game is asked to do more in Breece Hall’s absence but it likely won’t be this week. And with Elijah Moore unhappy, Corey Davis hurt and offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker out for the season, things suddenly aren’t looking great for Wilson.

Running Back

The Jets traded for James Robinson Monday. He won’t replace how incredible Breece Hall was, but he will help the Jets try to continue relying on the ground attack. Hall was starting to fully take over this backfield but now, at least for the first week or so, I’d imagine we see Michael Carter handle 60% of the work, with Robinson getting the rest. Carter was already seeing a decent amount of red zone work alongside Hall and given the fact that Robinson just joined the team and isn’t 100% healthy himself, I’d expect Carter to see 15-plus touches this week, which puts him on the fantasy radar. The Patriots’ run defense was just gashed to the tune of 206 yards and two touchdowns to the Bears Monday and are now allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game (136.7) and sixth-most yards per attempt (4.9). And if you look back at the last 13 games where Carter has seen at least 12 touches, he is averaging a respectable 14.3 PPR points per game. I’d start Carter as a solid flex play this week, while Robinson is likely a touchdown-or-bust flex option in his first game with his new team.

Wide Receiver

Elijah Moore is back with the team and expected to play Sunday, but Corey Davis is questionable with an injury. Davis has been Wilson’s top target since last season so his absence would certainly open up more targets for Moore and Garrett Wilson, though I still would hesitate to start either wideout unless I am desperate at wide receiver. Wilson has been under 50 receiving yards in each of his last four games, while failing to find the end zone since Week 2. But if Davis is sidelined, it would most likely push Wilson to the perimeter, where he would line up against rookie defensive back Jack Jones, who has been outstanding this season, allowing just 12 receptions on 25 targets in his coverage, while grading out as PFF’s top defensive back. 

Tight End

Tyler Conklin’s playing time increased last week, but he is still sharing plenty of snaps with C.J. Uzomah, who has logged at least 60% of the snaps in each of the last three games. Both Jets tight ends can be left on the waiver wire unless something changes.

Patriots

Quarterback

In Mac Jones’ first game back from a high-ankle sprain, the Patriots played both Jones and Bailey Zappe. Jones only attempted six passes, while Zappe completed 14-of-22 passes for 185 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. It is unclear what Bill Belichick’s plan at quarterback is going forward but regardless of who is under center for the Patriots, they shouldn’t be started on any fantasy rosters. 

Running Back

Damien Harris (hamstring) returned to the lineup following a one-game absence, but Rhamondre Stevenson remained the team’s lead running back. Stevenson logged 77% of the snaps, while Harris played just 17%. The work went to Stevenson, who rushed for 39 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries, but he added eight receptions for an additional 59 yards. Harris, meanwhile, recorded just four touches for 10 yards. It remains to be seen whether Harris’ lack of usage was due to him returning from injury or if this backfield simply belongs to Stevenson now but regardless, Stevenson should continue to be started as a solid RB2. Since Week 3, he’s been stellar, ranking third among all running backs in fantasy points, fourth in rushing touchdowns (4), fifth in rushing yards (415), 14th in yards per attempt (5.12), ninth in yards after contact per attempt (3.85), fourth in receptions (22), fifth in targets (25) and eighth in receiving yards (139). 

Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers is the only New England pass-catcher I feel even remotely comfortable starting in fantasy. The volume wasn’t great last week but Meyers hauled in a 30-yard touchdown, giving him two scores on the year. With the Jets shutting down perimeter wide receivers with their elite duo of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the slot might be the only avenue for success for this Patriots passing game, which is where Meyers is lining up 70.6% of the time so far this season. We just saw Jerry Jeudy haul in seven passes for 96 yards from the slot against the Jets a week ago. Meyers is a low-ceiling WR3.

Tight End

Hunter Henry’s numbers were lacking but he dominated playing time at tight end for the Patriots, logging 85% of the snaps compared to just 33% for Jonnu Smith. Henry has played at least 84% of the snaps in each of his last four games and last Monday night, he ran a route on 26-of-32 dropbacks (81%). If choosing between the Patriots tight ends, Henry is clearly the player you would start, though I’m not overly excited about it.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

Total: 40.5, TEN -2
Pace: HOU: 28.36 sec/snap (24th), TEN: 30.78 sec/snap (32nd)

What to watch for: Nico Collins left Sunday’s game with a groin injury and is being listed as day-to-day.

Texans

Quarterback

Davis Mills is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 302 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against the Raiders. His 41 pass attempts were a season-high, as the Texans were chasing points. The Titans have been a massive pass funnel this season, but I think this game is a lot closer, which could lead to Mills getting back to 27-30 pass attempts. With Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert on bye this week, you could honestly do worse than streaming Mills against a pass-funnel Tennessee defense that is allowing the third-highest passing touchdown rate (5.8%).

Running Back

The Texans’ offensive philosophy is pretty simple: Give Dameon Pierce the ball as much as possible. Pierce recorded 24 more touches for over 100 scrimmage yards this past weekend, giving him at least 20 touches in each of his last four games. During that span, the talented rookie running back is averaging a gaudy 23.7 touches per game, while we have also seen him add more receiving work to his game, averaging nearly four receptions per game in that stretch. He’s been very impressive, ranking second in the league in avoided tackles (38), fourth in avoided tackles per attempt (0.36) and seventh in yards after contact per attempt (3.96). Tennessee’s run defense has been mostly good this season, but they have missed a healthy 40 tackles this season, seventh in the league. Continue to start Pierce as a top-15 fantasy running back.

Wide Receiver

With the NFL trade deadline next Tuesday, keep an eye on Brandin Cooks, who will certainly generate interest from contending teams. Assuming he remains on the Texans, he’ll project as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 against a vulnerable Titans pass defense. Tennessee is coughing up the second-most fantasy points (43.6), fourth-most receptions (14.5) and eighth-most targets (21.0) per game to opposing wide receivers. 74.1% of the yardage against this Titans defense has come through the air, the third-highest rate in football, while 86.6% of the touchdowns surrendered by Tennessee have been via the pass, the highest rate in the NFL. The Titans also rank bottom-five in yards per target allowed to opposing wide receivers and just allowed 10 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown to Parris Campbell. 

Tight End

Brevin Jordan returned from his ankle injury but failed to catch any of his four targets Sunday. You should not be starting a Texans tight end.

Titans

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill suffered an ankle injury last week and missed a few plays. He finished the game but was seen in a walking boot after. It sounds like he’ll be limited in practice this week, and we’ll see if he is active Sunday. If he is, he’ll remain what he’s been all season — a low-volume, low-ceiling streaming quarterback. He is averaging just 24.3 pass attempts per game on the year, while failing to reach 20 fantasy points in a single game. We know the Houston run defense has been unbelievably bad this season, setting up this game to feature a ton of Derrick Henry.

Running Back

If you are facing Derrick Henry in your fantasy leagues this week… good luck.

Henry is red hot, rushing for at least 100 yards in each of his last three games, while we’ve seen the usage in the passing game remain intact. Over his last three games, Henry is averaging a healthy 3.25 receptions per game, while his 18% target share during that span ranks fourth among all running backs. Look for him to crush the worst run defense in football, as the Texans are surrendering the most rushing yards per game (164.7), as well as the sixth-most yards before contact (2.62). 17% of the runs against Houston so far this season have gone for 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the NFL, as Josh Jacobs just destroyed this unit, particularly on outside runs, which is exactly what the Titans want to do with Henry. His 41 runs on outside runs are tied for the league lead and we know if you let Henry get to the edge, it is over. Look for Henry to rush for 100-plus yards again this week, while most likely finding the end zone.

Wide Receiver

Starting pass-catchers from this Tennessee offense right now just doesn’t present much upside. Robert Woods is technically the team’s leading wide receiver, but he was targeted just four times last week, catching three passes for 26 yards. Woods has been held under 40 receiving yards in all but one game this season, as Tennessee continues to run the ball as much as any team in football. It feels like his absolute ceiling on a weekly basis is like 60 yards and a potential touchdown, which makes the veteran wideout nothing more than a WR4 right now.

Tight End

Austin Hooper posted a season-high 56 yards Sunday, but still saw just three targets and ranked third among Tennessee tight ends in snaps. Don’t add or start Hooper in fantasy leagues.

Washington Commanders @ Indianapolis Colts

Total: 39.5, IND -3
Pace: IND: 26.2 sec/snap (2nd), WAS: 28.24 sec/snap (23rd)

What to watch for: Sam Ehlinger will start at QB for the Colts this week and going forward.

Colts

Quarterback

Between the combination of sporadic play and a shoulder sprain, Matt Ryan has been benched by the Colts. Second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger will be under center for the foreseeable future, so it’ll be interesting if the Colts offensive philosophy changes after this move. As of late, we have seen Indianapolis transform into a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense. Over the last three weeks, the Colts rank first in neutral-script pace (24.03 sec/snap), second in no-huddle rate (30.9%) and second in pass rate (70.3%). Will the Colts throw the football this often with an unproven quarterback at the helm? No, I doubt it. But they are looking to continue to play fast, which is good for fantasy. Outside of superflex formats, Ehlinger shouldn’t be started, despite a friendly matchup with a Commanders secondary that is allowing the highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL (6.2%).

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor returned from a two-game absence last week, rushing for 58 yards on 10 carries and adding seven receptions for 27 yards. Taylor only logged 55% of the snaps, but it didn’t help that the Colts had 12 snaps in two-minute drills, all of which (unsurprisingly) went to Nyheim Hines. I’d expect the Colts to get back to feeding Taylor 20-plus touches this week. The work in the passing game has been pretty solid all year long, with Taylor averaging five targets per game. The Colts offense clearly has some concerns right now, as the run-blocking has fallen off a cliff, while there are plenty of question marks at the quarterback position. However, I am not sitting Taylor, despite facing a Washington run defense that has been very good so far this season.

Wide Receiver

With the Colts offense struggling last week, Michael Pittman posted a mediocre game, hauling in six passes for 58 yards. He was targeted nine times, giving him at least eight targets in all but one game this season. Hopefully the move from Ryan to Ehlinger won’t have too much of an impact on Pittman, though he does have a pretty favorable matchup against a Washington secondary that is coughing up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. Pittman will line up against Kendall Fuller, who is allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage route this season, while his 417 yards allowed in coverage and three touchdowns are the second and sixth-most in football.

Parris Campbell has quietly caught 17 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown on 23 targets over the last two weeks. Of course, he isn’t making any plays down the field, as he is sporting the league’s fourth-lowest aDOT (5.1 yards) and fourth-lowest yards before the catch per reception (4.0), but the volume has been very strong. If the Colts go back to a run-first offense, there likely won’t be enough passes to go around for Campbell to warrant flex consideration but perhaps Indianapolis continues to air the ball out. Both Campbell and Alec Pierce are risky flex plays, though there is certainly potential against one of the worst secondaries in all of football. 

Tight End

In Week 7, Mo Alie-Cox, Kylen Granson and Jelani Woods all played meaningful snaps. Alie-Cox played 24, Granson 21 and Woods 19, while the routes went 14, 18, 14. Unless the Colts suddenly just lean on one tight end, you cannot comfortably start anyone.

Commanders

Quarterback

Taylor Heinicke’s first start of the season was a mixed bag. He was dreadful in the first half, starting off 1-for-7 with an ugly pick-six. But he settled in during the second half, ultimately finishing the day with 201 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an interception. With Carson Wentz sidelined, Heinicke will remain under center for the Commanders, though I’d be hesitant to start him unless he was in a dream matchup. 

Running Back

Washington continues to use all three of their running backs. Sunday, Brian Robinson drew the start for the second consecutive week, carrying the ball 20 times for 73 yards, adding two receptions for 13 yards. He logged 47% of the snaps, while Antonio Gibson played 39% of the snaps, touching the football 13 times for 77 yards and a touchdown. Gibson’s touchdown was actually an end zone target where he tapped both feet in beautifully and he played more third-down and goal-line snaps this past weekend. Finally, J.D. McKissic played 16% of the snaps and will really only be on the field during the two-minute drill and on 3rd and long situations. Robinson is now averaging a healthy 19.5 touches per game over his last two contests, and this doesn’t feel like a game where the Commanders will be chasing points, which should lead to 15-plus touches once again for the rookie running back. Both he and Gibson are viable flex plays, with Gibson getting the edge in full PPR formats. 

Wide Receiver

With Heinicke getting off to a slow start last week, it appeared Terry McLaurin was in line for an awful game. However, the two connected on a beautiful 37-yard touchdown pass down the sideline and McLaurin ultimately finished with five catches for 73 yards on eight targets. He tied Curtis Samuel for the team-lead in targets with eight, his first time leading Washington in targets in a game this season. McLaurin continues to see plenty of downfield opportunities, as he ranks seventh in deep targets (12) and 10th in yards per reception (16.3). He’ll remain a back-end WR2 against a Colts defense that has been a pass funnel this season, but does a good job of limiting explosive plays in the passing game. 

Samuel, meanwhile, should remain a relatively high-floor WR3 in this offense and it was nice to see him get back to seeing usage out of the backfield. He saw five carries last week, his first game with a rushing attempt since Week 3, while lining up in the backfield three times. As the starting slot receiver, he has the best matchup here, facing Kenny Moore, who has allowed two touchdowns in slot coverage so far this season.

Tight End

Logan Thomas has missed the last three games with a calf injury and in his absence, Washington has been using a committee at the tight end position, featuring Armani Rogers, Cole Turner and John Bates. I’ll be looking elsewhere at tight end for Week 8, despite the fact that the Colts have allowed four receiving touchdowns to tight ends this year, the fifth-most in the league.

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks

Total: 45, SEA -3
Pace: SEA: 27.5 sec/snap (14th), NYG: 27.75 sec/snap (17th)

What to watch for: DK Metcalf was carted off the field last week and his timetable is uncertain, though it appears he will miss some time.

Seahawks

Quarterback

Despite losing DK Metcalf in the opening quarter, Geno Smith still put together a solid game against the Chargers, completing 20-of-27 passes for 210 yards and two touchdowns, though he did throw an interception and lose a fumble. Smith has now thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of seven games to start the season, averaging the seventh-most fantasy points per game at the quarterback position (18.1). Things won’t be easy for him this week, as he faces a tough Giants defense, likely while missing Metcalf. We know the Giants are going to bring the blitz, as no team is blitzing at a higher rate this season (38.8%). Smith has been impressive against the blitz so far this year, sporting the league’s second-highest completion rate (72.6%), while ranking top-12 in yards per attempt against the blitz (7.2). He’s a high-end QB2 for me entering Week 8.

Running Back

Kenneth Walker has started two games since the season-ending injury to Rashaad Penny. In those contests, Walker has posted stat lines of 21-97-1 and 23-168-2. Over the last two weeks, Walker leads the league in missed tackles forced (15), runs of 10-plus yards (9), runs of 15-plus yards (6), rushing yards (265) and rushing touchdowns (3). While he obviously isn’t going to continue posting numbers of this magnitude, Walker likely won’t slow down this week, as he faces a struggling Giants run defense that has allowed two consecutive running backs to rush for 100 yards and a touchdown against them (Kenyan Drake, Travis Etienne). The Giants are also coughing up the most yards per attempt in the league (5.7), while 16.4% of the runs against this defense have gone for 10-plus yards, the second-highest rate in football. That bodes well for Walker, as 18% of his carries have gone for 10 or more yards. New York is also allowing the fourth-most yards before contact per rush on the year (3.01), making this the third-straight smash spot for Walker. He’s a top-10 running back.

Wide Receiver

There is still a chance DK Metcalf plays this weekend, though we won’t know for a few days. He is dealing with a patellar tendon injury and if he can’t play, Tyler Lockett would likely dominate targets for the Seahawks, while Marquise Goodwin would become fantasy relevant, just as he was a week ago when he caught four passes for 67 yards and two scores in Metcalf’s absence. A potential Metcalf absence would be notable, as he is tied for first in the league in end zone targets, while also accounting for 45.5% of Seattle’s red zone targets on the year, the highest rate in all of football. Lockett would soak up plenty of targets, while likely seeing an uptick in red zone work, and while a matchup with Adoree’ Jackson is tough, you are still starting him as a strong WR2, especially if Metcalf is inactive.

Tight End

Per usual, Will Dissly and Noah Fant are low-end streaming tight end due to the split Seattle is deploying. Both players have logged at least 60% of the snaps in each of the last three games, while essentially splitting routes run. Perhaps Fant and Dissly are more involved, especially in the red zone, if Metcalf is inactive.

Giants

Quarterback

Daniel Jones is coming off his best game of the year, throwing for 202 yards and a touchdown, while adding 107 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. The rushing production has been huge for Jones, as he is averaging 8.3 carries (fourth) and 49 rushing yards per game (third) on the year. 30 of his 58 total rushing attempts have been designed, as Jones’ mobility is a legitimate piece of Brian Daboll’s offense right now. Jones is averaging 0.52 fantasy points per dropback, a top-10 mark among all quarterbacks and now gets a great matchup with a Seattle defense that is allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers this season (21.6), while also coughing up the fourth-most yards per pass attempt (7.8). Jones has recorded at least 20 rushing yards in all but one game, giving him a solid floor and I like him as a high-end QB2 this week.

Running Back

You are obviously starting Saquon Barkley, who got off to a slow start last week, but still finished the game with 135 total yards on 28 touches. Barkley is now averaging an awesome 24 touches per game on the year, while his 84% opportunity share is tied for the highest rate in the league. A matchup with Seattle is fantastic, as the Seahawks are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season (26.9).

Wide Receiver

Wan’Dale Robinson is clearly the Giants WR1, even moreso since the team shipped Kadarius Toney to Kansas City Thursday. In Week 6, his first game back from injury, Robinson played 23% of the snaps and ran a route on 34% of dropbacks, seeing five targets. And in his second game back last week, everything improved, as Robinson logged 69% of the snaps, ran a route on 78% of dropbacks and caught six-of-eight targets for 50 yards. He was targeted on just over 27% of his route last week and has reached WR3 status, especially against a Seattle defense that has given it up to opposing slot receivers this season. The upside isn’t massive, as Robinson is being targeted very close to the line of scrimmage, but the floor should be solid given the volume he should continue to see.

Tight End

Rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger suffered a fractured eye socket last week, leaving him sidelined indefinitely. He was fully taking over as the Giants lead tight end and number-two option in the passing game. The Seahawks have been dreadful against tight ends this season, but I don’t envision many leagues where you would be forced to take a shot on either Chris Myarick or Tanner Hudson.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

Total: 43, SF -1
Pace: LAR: 30.35 sec/snap (31st), SF: 29.6 sec /snap (29th)

What to watch for: Deebo Samuel is dealing with a hamstring injury. He is listed as day-to-day.

Rams

Quarterback

Did the bye week fix the Rams struggles on offense? It seems unlikely, and I’m not willing to risk my roster to find out. Matthew Stafford has been awful this season, averaging just 12.2 fantasy points per game, while throwing six touchdowns compared to eight interceptions. The Rams offensive line is still a major concern, as Stafford has been under pressure on over 33% of dropbacks. Now he faces a 49ers team that he has really struggled against since joining the Rams, averaging just 13 fantasy points per game in three regular season meetings with his division rival. San Francisco is generating pressure at the second-highest rate in the league (27.6%), making this a frightening spot for Stafford.

Running Back

With Cam Akers no longer part of the Rams’ plans, Darrell Henderson will operate as the lead back for the time being. Akers was inactive before the bye in Week 6 and in that game, Henderson logged 71% of the snaps and handled 14-of-24 running back touches, rushing for 43 yards and a touchdown. We did see the Rams involve Malcolm Brown, who logged 25% of the snaps and touched the football eight times, but Henderson saw more of the high-value touches, which is more important. The 49ers have one of the best run defenses in all of football, as just 7.2% of the runs against them have gone for 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in the league, making this a tough matchup for Henderson. But he should be in line for 12-15 touches, which is enough to warrant flex consideration, especially with bye weeks now playing a factor.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp is coming off a bad game … which for him is still seven receptions for 80 yards. The offense is obviously going to continue to run through Kupp, who caught 14-of-19 targets for 122 yards when these teams last met back in Week 4. His 32.5% targets share through seven weeks is the second-highest rate in football, and highest rate among all wide receivers. 

Allen Robinson, meanwhile, remains a desperation WR3 play that has to find the end zone. On the bright side, however, Robinson is tied for the league-lead with nine end zone targets this season, seeing at least one in every game this year. But again, if he doesn’t score a touchdown, you are in trouble, as he’s yet to see more than six targets in a game this season.

Tight End

When we last saw Tyler Higbee, his playing time fell off a tiny bit, as he logged a season-low 78% of the snaps, while running a route on just 58% of dropbacks. Those numbers are significantly lower than what we have seen from Higbee over the course of the season, though he was dealing with a minor ankle issue coming into the game, so perhaps that played a factor in his decreased usage. Higbee is too important to this offense to play in a limited role so hopefully he’s back to his 90% snap share and elite route participation. I’m still starting him with confidence.

49ers

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo has quietly put together three consecutive games with multiple touchdown passes, as the 49ers have been forced to throw the football more over the last three weeks. He’s had a pair of favorable matchups with the Chiefs and Falcons and now heads to Los Angeles to face a Rams defense that is surrendering the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (13.1). It is at least a little interesting that the Rams are allowing the league’s highest completion percentage off play-action (80%), however, teams are only using play-action 13% of the time against them this season, the lowest rate in football. Garoppolo is a lower-end QB2 for this NFC West rematch.

Running Back

As expected, Christian McCaffrey was limited in his first game as a member of the 49ers. He played 22-of-77 snaps (29%), but still touched the ball 10 times on those 22 snaps, recording 62 total yards. Interestingly enough, McCaffrey did not play a single third-down snap in the game, while Jeff Wilson got the playing time at the goal line. After a full week of practice with his new team, McCaffrey should be much closer to a full-time player this weekend, and given how much better this running scheme and offense is, he will remain a top-seven fantasy running back. 

Wide Receiver

Deebo Samuel had a quiet game last week, catching five passes for 42 scoreless yards. He was still targeted seven times, giving him at least seven targets in all but one game on the year. Samuel is dealing with a hamstring injury and did not practice Wednesday — the issue doesn’t appear to be too serious, it could legitimately keep him sidelined for this week’s game. If Samuel plays, you are starting him, though he could take a hit with McCaffrey playing more, especially on passing downs, especially since he’ll likely be targeted in similar areas of the field. The Rams have struggled against wide receivers so far this season, coughing up the seventh-most receptions (13.7) per game to the position. And the last time these teams met, Samuel dominated, hauling in six passes for 115 yards and a touchdown. If Samuel is out, Brandon Aiyuk would climb into the borderline WR2 range. With the 49ers throwing the ball more as of late, Aiyuk has now seen 11 targets in each of the last two games, eclipsing 80 receiving yards in both outings. 

Tight End

Like Aiyuk, George Kittle has also benefited from the uptick in passing volume. Over the last two weeks, Kittle has caught 14-of-19 targets for 181 yards and a touchdown, while leading all tight ends in routes run during that span (83), which is rare for Kittle given how often he run blocks in this offense. At their core, San Francisco is a run-first team and that will continue, especially in games where they aren’t chasing points. Still, Kittle is an obvious must-start tight end who is playing very well right now.

Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills

Total: 47.5, BUF -11
Pace: BUF: 27.31 sec/snap (10th), GB: 29.1 sec/snap (26th)

What to watch for: Allen Lazard left Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury and did not return. He is questionable to play Sunday night.

Bills

Quarterback

Longest. Week. Ever. After a well-deserved week off, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are back in my life. Allen is once again the QB1 in fantasy football, averaging 29.4 fantasy points per game. He has passed for at least 300 yards in five different games this season, while adding 7.8 rushing attempts and 42.8 rushing yards per game. Per usual, Allen should be ranked as the consensus QB1 ahead of Week 8.

Running Back

Devin Singletary remains arguably the most underrated running back in football. When we last saw Buffalo in action, Singletary was once again the clear lead back, logging 86% of the snaps. And in the three competitive games Buffalo has played in this season, Singletary has played 73%, 88% and 85% of the snaps. Singletary was great against the Chiefs, rushing for 85 yards on 17 carries, while adding four receptions for 22 yards. In those three aforementioned competitive contests, Singletary is also averaging a healthy 18 touches per game and in Week 6, Zack Moss was a healthy scratch, paving the way for Singletary to dominate the touches. Motor ranks fourth among all running backs in routes run (167) and is quietly 12th at the position in receptions (22). He’ll face a vulnerable Green Bay run defense that is stuffing just 13% of carries at or behind the line of scrimmage so far this season, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. Singletary is a low-end RB2 right now.

Wide Receiver

You are obviously starting Stefon Diggs, who is the WR1 in points per game at the moment. He has been targeted on 30% of his routes so far this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league, while sporting a target share just under 29%. Diggs has recorded 100-plus yards in four of six games this season, while seeing double-digit targets in four games, too. Gabe Davis, meanwhile, has too much upside to not start each week. He leads all qualified wideouts in yards per target so far this season (15.3), while his 17.1-yard aDOT ranks top-10. Davis’ league-leading 27.3 yards per reception is totally unsustainable but he can clearly haul in a 50-yard touchdown at any time, especially in this offense. Davis is a high-upside WR2, though his floor certainly isn’t the highest in the league.

Tight End

Dawson Knox found the end zone for the first time all season back in Week 6, though he was still targeted just three times. The uptick in passing game usage from the running backs has certainly hurt Knox, who already had a low ceiling in terms of targets. He’s still a touchdown-dependent play at tight end this week but it is good to see him pass-blocking less as of late.

Packers

Quarterback

Green Bay is currently riding an ugly three-game losing streak where their offense has scored 46 total points. Aaron Rodgers scored two touchdowns last week but failed to reach 200 passing yards and between a shuffling offensive line and inconsistent group of pass-catchers, the situation in Green Bay is clearly less than ideal. Rodgers projects as nothing more than a mid-range QB2 ahead of a road matchup against a stout Buffalo defense that is coughing up the second-lowest passing touchdown rate (2.4%) this season, as well as the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (11.7). 

Running Back

After a few rough weeks where Aaron Jones wasn’t being utilized in the greatest of ways, Green Bay finally got him involved, particularly in the passing game. Jones caught a career-high nine passes for 53 yards and a pair of touchdowns Sunday, while adding eight carries for 23 yards. His 17 total touches were great to see, while his 74% snap share was the highest of the season. Jones has been far more efficient than AJ Dillon this season and perhaps Green Bay is starting to give most of the work to him, as Dillon played a season-low 30% of the snaps last week, while only touching the ball four times. If Jones can consistently get work in the passing game, which is what we expected entering the season, he’ll provide a very strong weekly floor. The matchup against Buffalo is tough but I am still starting Jones as a top-15 running back.

Dillon, meanwhile, is still a player I’d hold but should not be in any starting lineups for the foreseeable future.

Wide Receiver

Allen Lazard has been very reliable for both the Packers and fantasy rosters this season. He’s had at least 50 yards or a touchdown in every game this season, scoring four times in six games. Lazard is averaging a solid seven targets per game but his status for this week is up in the air, as he’s currently dealing with a shoulder injury. If Lazard sits out, it would theoretically help Romeo Doubs and Sammy Watkins, but I’d really rather not start any pass-catchers from this team right now. Doubs would be a fine WR4/flex play in deeper leagues if Lazard is out, but the matchup is really poor.

Tight End

After a great game in Week 6, Robert Tonyan disappointed last week, catching just 3-of-4 targets for 32 yards. He still ran a route on 70% of dropbacks, which is solid, but his usage is far too inconsistent. The Bills, meanwhile, have yet to allow a tight end to find the end zone against them this season, making Tonyan a middling TE2 for Sunday night.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Total: 47, CIN -3.5
Pace: CLE: 27.68 sec/snap (16th), CIN: 27.36 sec/snap (11th)

What to watch for: Could Kareem Hunt get traded before this game kicks off? David Njoku will miss the next 2-5 weeks with an ankle injury.

Browns

Quarterback

As I write every week, there is simply no upside with Jacoby Brissett. The veteran signal caller hasn’t reached 18 fantasy points in a game yet this season, scoring fewer than 15 three times. Cleveland continues to lean on the ground attack, sporting the league’s eighth-highest rush rate (47.3%). Brissett ranks outside the top-20 quarterbacks in both fantasy points per game and fantasy points per dropback this season, also ranking 22nd in yards per attempt (6.8). A matchup against the Bengals is unlikely one that will unlock any ceiling from Brissett, as Cincinnati is allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing passers (11.7), while also coughing up the fourth-lowest passing touchdown rate (2.5%).

Running Back

Nick Chubb is an obvious must-start running back every week. He still leads the NFL in missed tackles forced (47), runs of 10-plus yards (24) and runs of 15-plus yards (12). The Bengals aren’t the easiest matchup in the world, but the Ravens weren’t either and he still rushed for 91 yards and a score against them last week. Chubb is also averaging about two more fantasy points per game at home this season and ranks third in the league with seven carries from inside the 5-yard line. 

On the other hand, Kareem Hunt is very interesting. He found the end zone last week but was insanely inefficient, totaling eight yards on six touches. Trade rumors continue to swirl around Hunt, who could possibly be traded before this game Monday. His touches have been down over the last two weeks, averaging just five touches per game during that span. That is a bit concerning and the best thing for his fantasy potential might be to be moved before the deadline.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper has been mostly good this season but is coming off a four-target game. He made the most of his looks, catching three of them for 74 yards. Cooper has still seen double-digit targets in four different games this season, while sporting a target share north of 25%. He does have a tough matchup this week, facing Chidobe Awuzie, who is allowing just 0.15 fantasy points per coverage route and a 44% catch rate in coverage. The volume should remain strong enough for Cooper to remain a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

If you are hurting at wide receiver, Donovan Peoples-Jones is worth a look in deeper leagues. He has reached 70 receiving yards in three of his last four games, while averaging a respectable 6.75 targets per game during that span. He’ll line up against Eli Apple, who was just beat for a 75-yard touchdown by Damiere Byrd in Week 7.

Tight End

David Njoku left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury that will reportedly sideline him for the next 2-5 weeks. Njoku has been awesome as of late, averaging six receptions, 7.2 targets and 75.8 receiving yards per game since Week 3. Harrison Bryant will lead this tight end room going forward and with Njoku’s 18.1% target share now on the sidelines (eighth among tight ends), there will be plenty of opportunities for Bryant.

Bengals

Quarterback

The shotgun-heavy approach continued for the Bengals this past weekend, as Joe Burrow was out of the shotgun over 80% of the time on Sunday, one week after lining up out of the shotgun on all but two offensive plays in Week 6. Burrow is much more comfortable out of the shotgun, sporting a 68.9% completion rate and 7.8 yards per attempt, while 13 of his 15 passing touchdowns this season have come out of the shotgun. He just destroyed the Falcons to the tune of 481 yards and four total touchdowns, as Zac Taylor and company have found some answers. More shotgun has led to less pressure, as Burrow has been under duress on 21.8% of dropbacks over the last two weeks (fifth lowest), compared to 27% in Weeks 1-5. Meanwhile, just 10.3% of his passes have been into tight windows over his last two games, down from a 17.2% rate from Weeks 1-5. Burrow will remain an elite QB1 against a vulnerable Cleveland defense that is allowing opposing offenses to score points on 42.5% of drives against them this season, the sixth-highest rate in football. Cleveland has also allowed 490 passing yards on deep passes, the second-most in the league, while 13% of the passes against the Browns have traveled 20-plus yards in the air.

Running Back

Joe Mixon found the end zone last week, giving him a touchdown in each of the last two weeks. The volume has come down, as Cincinnati has relied more on the passing game. Mixon is averaging just 16 touches per game over the last two weeks but is still dominating the short-yardage work, leading the entire NFL with 12 carries from inside the 5-yard line. He’s also provided a solid PPR floor, hauling in at least three passes in every game this season. Mixon gets an outstanding matchup this week, facing an awful Cleveland run defense that just allowed Gus Edwards to run for 66 yards and two touchdowns in his season debut. The Browns are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points (27.3) and third-most rushing touchdowns (1.29) per game to opposing backfields on the season, while also allowing a healthy 2.59 yards before contact per rush, the ninth-worst rate in the league. Mixon could be in store for a huge Monday night.

RBs vs. Cleveland since Week 3

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase has reminded everyone just how dominant he is over the last two weeks, posting stat lines of 7-132-2 and 8-130-2 against the Saints and Falcons. Both secondaries were depleted but it was still great to see Chase post massive games. The recent changes to Cincinnati’s offense have done wonders for Chase, while we also saw Tyler Boyd shine last week, hauling in eight-of-nine targets for 155 yards and a score. Tee Higgins had the worst game of the trio, but still managed to post 93 yards, as everything was working for the Bengals passing game. Chase and Higgins are obvious must-start wide receivers, while you could do much worse than Boyd as a WR3 or flex play if you need help at the wide receiver position. 

Friday update: Chase is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a hip injury. You were already starting Higgins in all formats, but this makes Boyd an elite WR3 option going forward.

Tight End

Hayden Hurst still saw eight targets last week, catching six passes for 48 yards. The veteran tight end still ranks third at his position in routes run (232) and although Cleveland has surrendered the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, Hurst’s floor is likely higher than most tight ends you’ll be able to find on the waiver wire.