Week 6 Fantasy Football Game By Game Breakdown

Bye weeks have officially arrived, making fantasy football lineup decisions more interesting than ever. The fourth wide receiver on your bench that you normally wouldn’t even think about plugging into your starting lineup suddenly becomes a potential candidate. With four teams on bye, let’s try to find some viable replacements for Week 6, while breaking down every single game.

Week 6 byes: Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Tennessee

Washington Commanders @ Chicago Bears

Total: 38, CHI -1
Pace: CHI: 28.2 sec/snap (24th), WAS: 27.68 sec/snap (14th)

What to watch for: Defensive back Jaylon Johnson has missed the last three games with a quad injury, but he is practicing in full this week. For Washington, WR Jahan Dotson and TE Logan Thomas have been ruled out.

Bears

Quarterback

Justin Fields just completed 15-of-21 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings. It was his best performance of the season, and his 15 completions were a season-high, which is insane to even think about in the year 2022. The Bears continue to establish the living hell out of the run, regardless of gamescript. In neutral situations, Chicago is sporting the league’s highest rush rate at 57.7%, even running the ball 59% of the time when trailing by eight or more points, the second-highest rate in the league. Fields continues to provide somewhat of a floor with his rushing production, averaging 8.4 rushing attempts and nearly 40 rushing yards per game. 45% of his rushing attempts have been designed this season, as Luke Getsy is calling more RPOs and QB draws. With bye weeks now playing a factor, Fields becomes more interesting this week, especially in a favorable matchup. The Commanders are coughing up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, while no team is allowing a higher passing touchdown rate (6.7%). Still, Fields’ upside is capped when he is only averaging 17.6 pass attempts per game.

Running Back

After a one-game absence, David Montgomery returned to the lineup Sunday and assumed his usual role. Montgomery logged 72% of the snaps, touching the ball 16 times for 82 yards. Khalil Herbert took a backseat, playing just 14 offensive snaps and recording four touches. Montgomery can return to your starting lineup as a strong RB2, as his volume should be fantastic. Before Montgomery’s injury, the Bears had essentially been running a system where Montgomery would play two drives, Herbert would play one and so on and so forth. I expect that to remain the case going forward. Washington’s run defense has tightened up over the last few weeks, as the Commanders are coughing up the third-fewest rushing yards per game over the last three weeks (79.7), while just 26% of the yardage surrendered by this defense has come on the ground during that span, the third-lowest rate in football. Still, 20 touches are on the horizon for Montgomery, making him a viable RB2 in fantasy.

Wide Receiver

Like last week, this is also a good matchup for Darnell Mooney. Of course, the volume is just so limited right now. Mooney is sporting a healthy 24.7% target share, but that doesn’t mean as much when your offense is throwing the ball less than 20 times per game. Mooney has now recorded long catches in back-to-back games and could do it again against a Washington secondary that is coughing up the fifth-most air yards in the NFL through five weeks (750), while no team in football is allowing a higher aDOT than the Commanders (9.7 yards). Mooney continues to play out of the slot more, lining up there 64% of the time this season, up from his slot rate of 43.6%. He remains a boom-or-bust flex play in PPR formats.

Tight End

Cole Kmet is coming off his best game of the season, hauling in four passes for 45 yards. If this is his ceiling, which it very likely could be, there still just isn’t much to be excited about right now. He did run a route on 93% of dropbacks last week, up from his 82% route participation in Weeks 1-4. 

Commanders

Quarterback

After consecutive tough matchups, Carson Wentz got back on track against a vulnerable Tennessee secondary last week. Wentz completed 25-of-38 passes for 359 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an interception. So far this season, Wentz has been good in good matchups and awful in tough matchups. If that trend continues entering Week 6, he should be exactly average against a Bears defense that is allowing the 15th-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (17.29). Chicago should have their top corner back in the lineup this week, which should help, especially after allowing Kirk Cousins to complete 78% of his passes a week ago. It is possible Washington’s rejuvenated running game gets going here, which could lead to Washington throwing less on early downs, something they’ve done as much as any team in football. However, Wentz still has upside on fewer pass attempts, as his 27 passes of 20 yards or more down the field are the second-most in the league. The Bears are allowing 7.0 yards per pass attempt so far this season, the 10th-highest mark in football. Consider Wentz a mid-range QB2 for Thursday.

Running Back

Brian Robinson made his 2022 debut Sunday, which was just amazing to see. Antonio Gibson still started the game but played just 20 snaps to Robinsons’ 18. The rookie recorded nine carries to Gibson’s three, while outsnapping Gibson in short-yardage situations. We also saw J.D. McKissic lead this backfield with a 41% snap share, as he continues to dominate two-minute drill situations. So if Robinson is playing on early downs and short-yardage situations, while McKissic is the pass-catching running back, where does that leave Gibson? It is unfortunate that this backfield is so messy right now, as a matchup with the Bears is phenomenal. Chicago is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season (23.5), while their 124.4 rushing yards per game allowed to running backs are the fifth most in football. They have allowed three 100-yard rushers already, while also allowing 4.9 yards per carry. I’d be willing to gamble on Robinson as a flex play this week, especially with Derrick Henry, Dameon Pierce and Josh Jacobs on bye.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin had a fine game against the Titans, catching five passes for 76 yards. However, it was tilting to see Dyami Brown step in for the injured Jahan Dotson and haul in touchdown passes of 75 and 30 yards. McLaurin’s volume has been concerning, as Washington finally has viable pass-catchers around him. Through five weeks, McLaurin ranks outside of the top-30 wide receivers in target share (16.1%), while he’s yet to reach double-digit targets in a game this season. He is also averaging just 6.6 targets per game, the lowest mark since his rookie year in 2019. Based on talent, McLaurin is a borderline WR1 but based on usage, he’s a low-end WR2/high-end WR3. He faces a Bears secondary that has struggled so far this season but should get Jaylon Johnson back, who is an emerging defensive back in this league. Johnson hasn’t played since Week 2 and while he’s yet to shadow so far this season, he did do it at times last year, following Davante Adams on 89% and 57% in two meetings against Green Bay. He also shadowed Odell Beckham on 74% of his routes. And in the two games he’s played so far in 2022, Johnson has not been targeted in coverage. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Johnson has not been targeted in coverage since Week 18 of last season and whether he shadows him or not, McLaurin should see Johnson for 55-60% of his routes this week. 

Once again, Curtis Samuel led Washington in targets, something he has done in every game this season. He finished Week 5 with six catches for 62 yards on eight targets and is now averaging a healthy nine targets per contest. His 22% target share is much higher than McLaurin’s, as he continues to operate as Washington’s first read on most plays. The Commanders continue to line Samuel up all over the field, as he’s lined up out of the backfield for nearly four snaps per game this season, while lining up out of the slot 71.6% of the time, the 16th-highest rate among qualified wide receivers. Samuel is also moving around the formation pre-snap as much as any player in football, which helps create easy-to-convert targets. He should continue to be ranked ahead of McLaurin, especially in this matchup. Samuel will draw coverage from rookie Kyler Gordon, who is allowing a whopping 0.53 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season, the most in the league. Gordon is also allowing a 74% catch rate in coverage, while allowing a reception every 4.4 coverage snaps in slot coverage, the fourth-worst mark in the league. Samuel is a top-24 wide receiver for me this week.

Tight End

Logan Thomas, who missed Week 5’s game, has been ruled out again with a calf injury. In his absence Sunday, John Bates and Cole Turner split snaps at tight end for the Commanders, with Bates logging 59% of the snaps and Turner playing 51%. Both players ran 21 pass routes, which means you can look elsewhere for help at tight end this week, especially considering Thomas’ yardage totals have been lacking as of late anyway.

New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns

Total: 42.5, CLE -3
Pace: CLE: 28.28 sec/snap (25th), NE: 29.77 sec/snap (28th)

What to watch for: Damien Harris (hamstring) will miss the next few games for the Patriots. Mac Jones, meanwhile, could return to the lineup.

Browns

Quarterback

Jacoby Brissett once again was solid Sunday, throwing for 230 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He also added 32 rushing yards and is quietly averaging a respectable 22.4 rushing yards per game, which is an extra two fantasy points. Brissett has scored 15-18 fantasy points in four of five games, so you essentially know what you are going to get from him — a decent floor with virtually zero ceiling. Cleveland is sporting the league’s sixth-highest neutral-script rush rate so far this season (50.8%), which has limited Brissett to around 32 pass attempts per game. It is once again difficult to imagine a scenario where Brissett has a huge ceiling this week.

Running Back

Continue to start Nick Chubb and enjoy fantasy points.

It is insane what he is doing right now, as Chubb rushed for 134 yards and two more touchdowns on 17 carries last week. Chubb has now rushed for at least 100 yards in four of five games this season, finding the end zone seven times. Per usual, Chubb leads the NFL in missed tackles forced (42) and runs of 10-plus yards (20). 20% of his carries have gone for at least 10 yards, a top-three rate among running backs. No running back has more runs of 15 yards or more than Chubb (10), who simply continues to look like the best running back in football. He should continue to thrive against a New England defense that is coughing up the 11th-most rushing yards per game this season (128.8), as well as the 10th-most yards per attempt (4.8). 

Kareem Hunt found the end zone for the first time since Week 1 Sunday, rushing for 47 yards on 11 carries. He recorded 14 touches in the game, giving him four games with at least 14 touches on the year. Despite Chubb’s dominance, the Browns continue to get Hunt involved, especially near the goal line. Hunt has three carries from inside the 5-yard line, tied for the 12th most in the league — he is behind Chubb’s seven such carries, but 15 touches and occasional goal-line work will remain part of the equation, which makes him a safe weekly flex play.

Wide Receiver

After posting a dud in Week 4, Amari Cooper bounced back Sunday, hauling in seven passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. His 29% target share currently ranks eighth in the NFL, while Cooper has seen double-digit targets in three of five games so far this season. Cooper’s huge weeks have been great, but his down weeks have been abysmal. Perhaps there is something to be said about Cooper playing at home, as he’s averaging over 20 fantasy points per game at home and just 3.3 points per game on the road. It could easily be just a coincidence but regardless, it is tough to get away from a player with a target share of nearly 30%. I like him this week against Jalen Mills, who struggles with elite route-running wideouts, while allowing 0.25 fantasy points per coverage route. He is also PFF’s third-lowest-graded defensive back so far this season.

If you are hurting at wide receiver and need a bye week replacement, don’t overlook Donovan Peoples-Jones. DPJ was targeted seven times last week, catching four passes for 50 yards. And in Week 4, Peoples-Jones saw nine targets and recorded 71 yards. He’ll see coverage from Jonathan Jones, who is allowing 16.9 yards per reception in coverage this year, the 10th-worst mark among qualified defensive backs. 

Tight End

Continue to start David Njoku, who is a top-eight tight end at the moment. He caught all six of his targets for 88 yards Sunday, giving him at least 70 receiving yards in each of his last three games. His 2.02 yards per route run ranks third among qualified tight ends this season, while Njoku also ranks second in yards per target (10.0) and seventh in yards per reception (12.0). The Patriots have struggled against tight ends so far this season, surrendering the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (11.40), while only the Raiders have allowed more touchdowns to the position (5). 

New England Patriots

Quarterback

We’ll see if Mac Jones, who missed the last two games with an ankle sprain, can return to the lineup this week. Bailey Zappe got the start at quarterback for the Patriots Sunday, and to no one’s surprise, New England relied on the ground attack, sporting a 63.1% rush rate in neutral gamescript, the third-highest rate of the week. If Jones is back in action, he sets up as a low-ceiling QB2 in superflex leagues.

Running Back

Rhamondre Stevenson is a top-12 running back until further notice. Stevenson was already on the rise, averaging 17 touches per game from Weeks 3-4. The usage in the passing game has increased since the injury to Ty Montgomery, while the Patriots have been rotating drives between Stevenson and Damien Harris. But with Harris now expected to miss a few games with a hamstring injury, this New England backfield fully belongs to Stevenson, who rushed for 161 yards on 25 carries against the Lions Sunday. He played 100% of the snaps for the Patriots after Harris left the game, though New England didn’t have any other running backs active for the game. Stevenson has once again impressed so far this season, averaging 2.7 yards after contact per rush, the sixth-highest mark in the league. He is also breaking a tackle every 8.5 rushing attempts, which is also the sixth-highest mark among all running backs. Stevenson should now see 20-25 touches against a Cleveland defense that just allowed over 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley last week and are now allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (26.9). Stevenson is a borderline top-10 running back for Week 6.

Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers returned from a two-game absence and immediately was back to being the clear WR1 in New England. Meyers caught 7-of-8 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown (yes, a touchdown) against the Lions, while sporting an awesome 38% target share. Through three games, Meyers is averaging nine targets per game, while posting target shares of 38%, 20% and 38%. His 36% targets per route run mark leads all wideouts with at least 40 routes run so far this season. Since the start of the 2021 campaign, Meyers is sporting a healthy 24.15 target share, which is the 15th-highest mark among all wide receivers during that span. And dating back to last season, Meyers has recorded 11 games with at least five receptions, giving him a relatively strong weekly floor in PPR leagues. He should be viewed as a high-end WR3 who gets a boost in PPR leagues, especially if Mac Jones is able to play.

Tight End

For most of the season, Hunter Henry has been a player that you simply couldn’t recommend for fantasy purposes. However, the absence of Jonnu Smith (ankle) opened things up, as Henry logged a season-high 98% of the snaps, while running a route on 91% of dropbacks. He finished the game with four receptions for 54 yards and if Smith remains sidelined in Week 6, Henry can be trusted as a mid-range TE2 with TE1 upside. If Smith is active, however, I’d avoid this entire situation, just as I have been. 

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons

Total: 44.5, SF -5
Pace: ATL: 28.12 sec/snap (22nd), SF: 30.23 sec/snap (30th)

What to watch for: Kyle Pitts missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury. For San Francisco, the injuries continue to pile on. Nick Bosa is dealing with a groin injury, while Emmanuel Moseley (torn ACL) is out for the season.

Falcons

Quarterback

After a promising start to the year, Marcus Mariota has slowed down as of late, scoring 4.8 and 17.9 fantasy points. Atlanta remains an extremely run-heavy team, as they are running the football 55.1% of the time in neutral gamescripts, the second-highest rate in the league. The Falcons are even sporting the fifth-highest rush rate when trailing by eight or more points (49.3%). There was a stretch in Week 4 where Atlanta called 14 consecutive run plays and Mariota has only reached 30 pass attempts once this season. Against arguably the league’s best defense, it probably isn’t wise to start Mariota this week, especially if tight end Kyle Pitts is unavailable again.

Running Back

With Cordarrelle Patterson on injured reserve, the Falcons turned to their younger running backs in Week 5. Rookie Tyler Allgeier got the start against the Bucs, logging 59% of the snaps and recording 13 carries for 45 yards. Allgeier also led the backfield with nine third-down snaps, though Avery Williams was the running back in the two-minute drill, scoring his touchdown late in the fourth quarter. This is already an uninspiring backfield, and now Damien Williams is eligible to come off injured reserve, while San Francisco’s run defense has been elite, surrendering the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (14.96). And according to Football Outsiders, 23% of the runs against the 49ers so far this season have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, the fourth-highest rate in the league. While Atlanta’s running scheme has been tremendous, this is a terrible spot, especially considering it is unlikely the Falcons see many scoring chances in this game. San Francisco is allowing the fewest points (1.02) and yards (22.7) per drive this season, while opposing offenses are scoring points on just 21.8% of drives against the 49ers, the lowest mark in the league. 

Wide Receiver

Drake London is coming off consecutive quiet games, though he has seen seven targets in each game. His usage last week was puzzling, as London played a season-low 54% of the snaps, while only running a route on 65% of dropbacks. Still, the rookie wideout is still dominating targets for the Falcons, sporting a 33.3% target share, good for the fourth-highest rate in all of football. He is also being targeted on 33% of his routes run, giving him elite usage. This isn’t a great spot for London, but the matchup is at least a bit more favorable with Emmanuel Moseley out for the season. That means London will likely see coverage from Samuel Womack, who is 5-foot-9 and 189 pounds, while London stands at 6-4, 213. I’m still comfortable starting him as a viable WR3.

Tight End

We’ll have to see if Kyle Pitts is back in the lineup this week. He missed Week 5 with a hamstring injury — in his absence, the Falcons used a committee at tight end. You aren’t starting Feleipe Franks, Parker Hesse or Anthony Firkser. If Pitts is active, however, I honestly wouldn’t consider him a must-start, though it’ll be tough to get away from him given how bad the tight end position is. However, Fred Warner is arguably the best coverage linebacker in the NFL, while only the Rams are allowing fewer fantasy points per game to the tight end position than San Francisco (4.86).

49ers

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yardage has increased in each of the last three weeks and just tossed a pair of touchdowns against Carolina. With so many quarterbacks disappointing so far this season, Garoppolo probably needs to be on the streaming radar against the Falcons this week. Atlanta is coughing up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers so far this season (19.63), while opposing offenses are scoring points on 46% of drives against the Falcons, the third-highest rate in football. Atlanta has also struggled to defend the play-action pass this year, which bodes well for Garoppolo and this offense. The Falcons continue to struggle to get after the passer, sporting the league’s lowest pressure rate at 12.7%. Less pressure is great for Garoppolo, who is sporting just a 54.5% adjusted completion percentage when under pressure this year, a bottom-10 rate in the league. 

Running Back

Over the last four weeks, Jeff Wilson has been extremely consistent, recording at least 75 rushing yards in all four contests during that span. Wilson is averaging 17.7 touches per game over his last four contests and has been very efficient, ranking fifth in rushing yards (353), sixth in runs of 10-plus yards (9) and first in runs of 15-plus yards (7). Efficiency should remain part of Wilson’s game, especially in this backfield and running scheme that creates so many running lanes. We did see Tevin Coleman emerge as the clear RB2 last week, logging nearly 30% of the snaps and playing plenty of passing downs. Wilson is now tied for sixth in the league with five carries from inside the 5-yard line this season and should remain a solid RB2, especially in non-PPR formats. The Falcons have been destroyed by running backs over the past two weeks, surrendering 35 and 20 fantasy points to Leonard Fournette and Nick Chubb. 

Wide Receiver

Despite seeing nine targets last week, Deebo Samuel only caught two passes for 20 yards, though he did save his day with a four-yard touchdown. We have seen Samuel’s usage in the run game diminish a bit as of late, as he only has four carries over the last two weeks, while lining up out of the backfield for nine snaps during that span, including just once last week. This isn’t a bad thing for Samuel, as targets are more valuable than carries in fantasy football, and Samuel has now seen a healthy 24 targets over the past three weeks. With Atlanta coughing up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the slot so far this season, look for Samuel to remain productive in this plus matchup.

Brandon Aiyuk, meanwhile, has only been targeted eight times over the last two games, while failing to find the end zone. Perhaps the return of George Kittle is hurting Aiyuk a bit, though he remains a full-time player. A matchup with A.J. Terrell is interesting because the numbers say it is a good spot for him, as Terrell is allowing 0.41 fantasy points per coverage route this season, while also allowing five touchdowns in coverage. However, he has been much, much better as of late and when he’s on his game, is still one of the 10-best defensive backs in the entire NFL. Aiyuk is a risky WR3/flex play.

Tight End

It appeared the 49ers were looking to get George Kittle involved early last game. After seeing just four targets in Week 4, Kittle was targeted on the first play of the game in Week 5, ultimately finishing the game with five catches for 47 yards on six targets. It is pretty evident that Kittle lacks the usage to post consistent ceiling games like Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, but he remains an elite player. He’ll face an Atlanta defense that just traded away MLB Deion Jones, while the Falcons are already coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points (14.0), second-most receptions (6.8), third-most receiving yards (71.0) and second-most targets (9.0) per game to opposing tight ends on the season.

New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers

Total: 46.5, GB -7
Pace: GB: 30.4 sec/snap (31st), NYJ: 26.71 sec/snap (5th)

What to watch for: Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a thumb injury but is fully expected to play Sunday.

Packers

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers threw for 221 yards and a pair of touchdowns in London last week, giving him four straight contests with at least two passing touchdowns. We are seeing Rodgers take plenty of shots down the field this season, as 13.1% of his attempts have traveled 20 yards or more down the field, the 11th-highest rate in the NFL, while his 22 deep passes are good for the eighth-most in football. Perhaps he remains aggressive against a Jets pass defense that is allowing the second-highest aDOT in the league through five weeks (9.1 yards) and coughing up the 10th-highest passing touchdown rate at 4.6%. With the Jets also allowing opponents to score touchdowns on a healthy 68.8% of red zone trips on the year (seventh-highest rate), Rodgers sets up as a low-end QB1 with a relatively strong floor.

Running Back

I’m not entirely sure why Green Bay abandoned the running game last week, but it quite possibly cost them the game. The Packers were shut out in the second half against the Giants in Week 5 and while their defense didn’t play too well, the fact that Green Bay stopped running the football when both running backs were averaging over 4.5 yards per carry is insane. Aaron Jones hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2 but is operating as the 1A right now, averaging just under 17 touches per game over his last four outings. He played 73% of the snaps last week, his highest share so far this season, while AJ Dillon only recorded six touches and logged 32% of the snaps, a season low. It has been frustrating to see how little the running backs have been utilized in the passing game this year, especially after an offseason where it appeared Jones and Dillon would be the focal points with Davante Adams gone. The touchdowns, meanwhile, will start to show, and I’m not sold that Jones is going to go the entire season without seeing a single carry from inside the 5-yard line. Jones remains a high-end RB2, and it is pretty obvious we have yet to see the best from him.

Dillon, meanwhile, is tough to project. He only touched the ball six times last week, but he has also been the team’s goal-line running back, seeing 100% of Green Bay’s carries from inside the 5-yard line and 50% of the carries from inside the 10. Prior to Week 5, Dillon was averaging 16.5 touches per game, so I think the six touches from last week are a bit of a mirage, though it is also difficult to safely pencil Dillon back in for 14-17 touches like we have seen. But if the touchdown regression hits the Green Bay running backs like I expect it to, Dillon will certainly benefit. He’s a high-end RB3.

Wide Receiver

Allen Lazard has now found the end zone in three of four games this season. Over the last three weeks, he is averaging a healthy 6.6 targets per game. Due to his touchdowns, Lazard currently ranks 11th among all wideouts in fantasy points per touch (3.43), while seeing two end zone targets and nearly 21% of Green Bay’s red zone targets. While Romeo Doubs has made plenty of plays so far in his rookie season, Rodgers clearly has the most trust in Lazard, especially on those quick-hitting RPO slant routes. Lazard will remain in WR3 territory most weeks given his role and touchdown upside, though a matchup with Sauce Gardner is not easy, as the rookie is allowing just 0.18 fantasy points per coverage route, as well as a 47% catch rate.

Doubs had a quiet game last week, catching just three passes for 29 yards on five targets. It was a tough matchup, as the Giants have been a top defense at defending perimeter wide receivers, which is probably why we saw Randall Cobb catch seven passes for 99 yards on a whopping 13 targets. It is possible that Doubs struggles again this week, facing a Jets pass defense that suddenly has two really good defensive backs. Doubs will see coverage from D.J. Reed, who is allowing just 0.10 fantasy points per coverage route, the second-lowest rate in the league, as well as just a 44% catch rate.

Tight End

While I want to rely on Robert Tonyan for fantasy, it’s tough when Green Bay is playing four tight ends on a weekly basis. He ran a route on just 53% of dropbacks last week, while logging 44% of the snaps. Tonyan currently ranks 23rd among all tight ends in routes run for the season (100).

Jets

Quarterback

In the two games since Zach Wilson has returned to the lineup, the Jets have become a run-first team, whereas Joe Flacco was throwing the ball 50 times per game. Over the last two weeks, the Jets have won both games, which has helped them establish the run. As a result, Wilson hasn’t done a whole lot and isn’t someone I am looking to start in fantasy right now. Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur has done a good job of scheming players open, which has led to just 10.9% of Wilson’s pass attempts going into tight windows over the last two weeks. It is good to see for the Jets offense, but it isn’t exactly translating to terrific fantasy totals from Wilson. Against a Green Bay defense that is coughing up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season, Wilson can be left on waivers in traditional, one-QB leagues.

Running Back

You know that feeling when you get on a roller coaster, and before all of the fun ensues, you have that time period of anxiety, anticipation and excitement on the way up? That is exactly what has been like watching Breece Hall’s usage and involvement to start the season.

Hall logged 69% of the snaps in Week 5, a season-high. He touched the ball 20 times for 197 total yards and a touchdown, as he continues to thrive in the passing game. Hall caught a wheel route down the sideline and ran 79 yards, 20 of which came while carrying a defender. The rookie now has seven red zone targets on the season, the most among all running backs, and continues to see plenty of short-yardage work. Yes, Michael Carter scored a pair of short-yardage touchdowns Sunday, but it is worth pointing out that Hall was on the field for both plays, motioning out pre-snap on both plays. This week, it could easily be the same formation, but Hall gets the touchdowns instead. He has outsnapped Carter at the goal line over the last few weeks and is now averaging 19.5 touches per game over the past two weeks. Carter’s snap share has declined in each of the last three games (49%, 44%, 42%), as it’s pretty clear that Hall has passed him as the 1A in this backfield. Hall’s 0.46 fantasy points per snap are the ninth-most among all running backs this season, while also ranking ninth in fantasy points per touch (1.15). In case you didn’t believe so already, Hall is a must-start running back, especially against a Green Bay defense that is allowing the second-most adjusted line yards (5.26), while just 14% of the runs against the Packers have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, tied for the fourth-lowest rate in football. Carter, meanwhile, is a risky flex play, though 8-12 touches should be in his range of outcomes.

Jets RB Usage Since Week 3

Breece Hall

Michael Carter

Wide Receiver

With the Jets relying on the ground attack and three wide receivers fighting for targets, it is difficult to feel great about starting Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore or Corey Davis right now. Moore caught just one pass last week, and despite ranking fifth among all wide receivers in routes run (209), he has yet to reach double-digit fantasy points in a game yet this season. Moore is running a ton of routes deep down the field, sporting an aDOT of 14.4 yards that ranks 14th in the league, with just over 22% of his targets coming 20-plus yards down the field. Wilson, meanwhile, isn’t seeing the same type of production that he saw alongside Joe Flacco because the Jets aren’t throwing the football anywhere near as often. Through Week 3, the Jets sported the league’s fourth-highest neutral-script passing rate (68.3%), but that number has dropped to 18th in the two games since Zach Wilson returned to the lineup (52.9%). Wilson and the Jets offense aren’t good enough to support multiple starting fantasy wide receivers, which makes Moore and Garrett Wilson risky plays going forward, especially since it appears Corey Davis is Zach Wilson’s top target. 

Tight End

Tyler Conklin is third among tight ends in routes run (205), but the usage has started to dip over the last two weeks. During that span, Conklin ranks just 27th in routes run, and he is coming off a season-low 68% snap share against the Dolphins. C.J. Uzomah is healthy, and his playing time has climbed in each of the last two games, with the Jets running more two-TE sets. Conklin’s time appears to be over as a reliable starting tight end in fantasy, especially after being held without a catch and running a route on just 7-of-24 dropbacks last week. Yikes.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Total: 42, IND -2
Pace: IND: 27.48 sec/snap (10th), JAC: 26.04 sec/snap (3rd)

What to watch for: Will Jonathan Taylor (ankle) return to the lineup? And will Nyheim Hines play after leaving last Thursday’s game with a concussion?

Colts

Quarterback

Matt Ryan gets to reset after participating in arguably the worst football game I have ever watched last Thursday. Five quarters, zero touchdowns, and Ryan finished the game with 251 passing yards and a pair of interceptions. He is struggling right now, along with the Colts offensive line. Ryan has been under duress on 33% of his dropbacks this season, the 11th-highest rate in football, while throwing two touchdowns and five interceptions when under pressure. This will be the second meeting between these two division rivals and in the first game, Ryan was putrid, throwing for 195 yards and three interceptions. Of course, that was without both Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, but Jacksonville’s pass rush played a role in this game, as Ryan was under pressure on 40% of his dropbacks in that game. The Jaguars are currently sporting the league’s ninth-highest pressure rate (26.4%), making this a tough spot for Ryan, who is closer to QB20 once again this week.

Running Back

We’ll have to see what this backfield looks like this week. In Week 5, Jonathan Taylor was sidelined with an ankle injury, and it appeared that Nyheim Hines was on his way to a busy night against Denver. However, he suffered a concussion early in the first quarter and did not return, putting his status up in the air, too. With Taylor and Hines out last week, the Colts turned to Phillip Lindsay and Deon Jackson. Jackson logged 58% of the snaps and carried the ball 13 times for 62 yards, while Lindsay played 38% of the snaps, carrying the ball 11 times for 40 yards. The Colts are optimistic that Taylor will be able to play this week — the Jaguars have been a strong run defense for most of the season, they have struggled over the last two weeks, coinciding with the absence of defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi. He left Week 4’s game against the Eagles and once he left, Miles Sanders and company ran all over the Jaguars, with Sanders rushing for a career-high 134 yards and two touchdowns. And with Fatukasi out last week, Dameon Pierce ran for 100 yards and a score. His presence is very important as according to PFF, Fatukasi is sporting a top-20 stop percentage against the run this season (11.4%). If Taylor is back in the lineup, you are starting him, though this Colts run-blocking unit is struggling right now.

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman is coming off consecutive quiet games, catching just eight passes for 90 yards over the last two weeks. The Colts actually did a pretty good job of getting Pittman away from Pat Surtain last week, but the offense struggled for most of the game, limiting Pittman’s opportunities. He should still be in line for 7-10 targets each week, and I believe Ryan is going to start playing better but perhaps the recent emergence of Alec Pierce could push Pittman toward low-end WR2 range, rather than a low-end WR1. Speaking of Pierce, the rookie has now eclipsed 60 yards in each of his last three games, including 80 receiving yards in back-to-back outings. Pierce has seen a solid 20 targets over the last three weeks and has clearly cemented himself as the WR2 in Indianapolis. He is a viable flex play this weekend.

Tight End

The tight end usage from the Colts is all over the place, making Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods and Kylen Granson uninspiring fantasy options until someone separates himself. 

Jaguars

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence was really bad last week, completing just 25-of-47 passes for 286 yards and zero interceptions. Lawrence was forcing throws throughout the day, including in the red zone where he threw an absolutely egregious interception. After playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league from Weeks 2-3, Lawrence has come back down to earth over the last two weeks. Lawrence is still in the high-end QB2 range this week, though I’m not crazy about the matchup. The Colts rank inside the top-12 in terms of fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season, though we did see Lawrence complete 83.3% of his passes when these teams met in Week 2. Indianapolis is also a zone-heavy team, while Lawrence has been better against zone defense this season, sporting a 90.4 passer rating against zone coverage, compared to a 78.3 passer rating against man, according to Player Profiler. It is also possible that the Jaguars struggle to establish much production on the ground, facing a pass funnel Colts defense. 69.1% of the yardage allowed by the Colts this year has come through the air (11th most), while 70% of the touchdowns allowed by this defense has been via the pass (seventh).

Running Back

Is the backfield beginning to shift in Jacksonville? It is possible. Over the last two weeks, Travis Etienne has logged 51% and 53% of the offensive snaps, compared to 47% and 40% for James Robinson. The Jaguars have lost both contests, which could lead to more playing time and opportunities, where Robinson will see more work in positive gamescripts. However, it isn’t the entire story, especially last week. Etienne was involved early against the Texans last week, seeing four touches on Jacksonville’s first three drives, breaking off plays of 18, 30 and 20 yards. Robinson has had a few great fantasy outings this season but over the course of the year, Etienne has been more efficient, averaging 6.2 yards per touch, a top-five mark among all running backs, while averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Etienne touched the ball 13 times for over 100 total yards last week and it is possible that this backfield becomes a 50-50 split, which puts both running backs in the low-end RB2/flex radar. The Colts aren’t a great matchup for running backs, but they are coughing up the fifth-most receptions (6.0), third-most receiving yards (54.8) and eighth-most targets (7.2) per game to opposing backfields. 

Wide Receiver

After a great start to the season, Christian Kirk has slowed down as of late, hauling in just three passes for 71 yards over the last two weeks. Kirk’s slot rate dropped to 48% with Zay Jones inactive in Week 4, but with Jones back in the lineup last week, Kirk went back to a near full-time slot role, lining up inside 84% of the time. That bodes well for him here, as the slot is the best spot to target the Colts. Kenny Moore, who will lineup against Kirk for most of this game, is allowing 0.34 fantasy points per coverage route this season, as well as a 75% catch rate. Moore has allowed two touchdowns and a 115.3 passer rating in slot coverage so far this season. Kirk faces a zone-heavy Colts team, which bodes well for him. He ranks seventh among qualified wideouts in yards after the catch per reception against zone coverage (7.3), while also ranking 10th in yards per reception against zone defense (18.3). The Colts, meanwhile, are coughing up the sixth-most yards after the catch in football this season (642). When these teams last met, Kirk scored twice, once lined up out of the backfield where he ran an easy angle route against a linebacker, and once where he ran across the formation as the ball was snapped, illustrating the creative usage he’s seen this season. Don’t be afraid to go right back to Kirk this weekend.

Marvin Jones quietly caught seven passes for 104 yards last week, seeing 11 targets. Zay Jones, meanwhile, was targeted eight times in his first game back, though he only caught three passes for eight yards. It is difficult to recommend any wideouts outside of Kirk from this offense, especially if Lawrence isn’t attempting 47 passes again like last week.

Tight End

Evan Engram is coming off his best game of the season, securing 6-of-10 targets for 69 yards. He has yet to find the end zone, but Engram remains the clear lead tight end in Jacksonville, logging 75% of the snaps and running a route on about 83% of dropbacks last week. Engram is now ninth among tight ends in routes run (155) and gets a favorable Week 6 matchup against a Colts team that is surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points (13.5), sixth-most targets (7.6) and eighth-most receptions (5.4) per game to opposing tight ends. They have also allowed four touchdowns to the position this year, making it entirely possible Engram finds the end zone for the first time this season.

Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins

Total: 46, MIN -3
Pace: MIA: 28.95 sec/snap (26th), MIN: 26.53 sec/snap (4th)

What to watch for: Tua Tagovailoa is expected to throw this week but unlikely to play in Week 6. We’ll see if Teddy Bridgewater starts at quarterback this week after exiting Sunday’s game.

Dolphins

Quarterback

Teddy Bridgewater left Sunday’s game on the first play, and with Tua Tagovailoa already out, the Dolphins had to turn to third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson. Tagovailoa isn’t expected to play this week and we’ll see if Bridgewater suits up. If he does, he’ll be in the QB2 range in superflex formats against a vulnerable Minnesota secondary that is allowing the fourth-highest yards per pass attempt this season (8.2), as well as the 10th-highest yards per completion (12.0). Meanwhile, only Green Bay is surrendering a higher completion rate than the Vikings so far this season (70%).

Running Back

We finally have some clarity on the Miami backfield. Raheem Mostert has emerged as the lead back for the Dolphins, averaging 16.5 carries per game over the last two weeks. During that span, Mostert has logged 70.5% of the offensive snaps, while Chase Edmonds has played just 21.5% of the snaps. Mostert was arguably Miami’s best player last week, rushing for 113 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries and per usual, the veteran has been efficient, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and over five yards per touch. Seven percent of Mostert’s carries have gone for 15-plus yards, as he obviously fits this zone-blocking scheme so well. After Edmonds had been seeing more scoring opportunities to start the season, Mostert was on the field more often at the goal line, while also playing the two-minute drill for Miami. Mostert’s 46 snaps Sunday were a career-high. He is a borderline must-start running back right now, especially against a struggling Vikings run defense. Minnesota is allowing the sixth-most adjusted line yards off runs to the right tackle this season (5.87), while 25 of Mostert’s 57 rushing attempts have come off tackle this year. He is averaging 4.6 yards per carry on such runs. 

Edmonds, meanwhile, is a drop candidate in most leagues. He played a season-low 15% of the snaps last week and after a pair of early drops, was seemingly benched for Myles Gaskin, who played an offensive snap for the first time this season in Week 5. 

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill caught all seven of his targets for 47 yards last week, but Miami’s passing game clearly struggled. Hill is dealing with a foot injury, but the Dolphins are expecting him to play. Whether it is Bridgewater or Thompson under center, I am not benching Hill, who is sporting a 30.6% target share through five weeks, the fifth-highest rate in the league. He has a tremendous matchup this week, facing Cameron Dantzler, who is coughing up 0.34 fantasy points per coverage route so far this season, along with a 74% catch rate. He is allowing a reception every 7.3 coverage snaps, the 14th-worst rate among qualified defensive backs, while also allowing the eighth-most receptions in coverage (23). Miami continues to scheme touches for Hill, who has seen the fifth-most targets off screens so far this season with seven. As long as he is active, I am starting him.

Jaylen Waddle isn’t as easy a must-start, but I’m still unlikely to get away from him this week. He’s struggled the last few weeks but in Week 4, Waddle wasn’t 100% with a groin injury, while last week he was playing alongside a third-string quarterback. I expect Waddle to be a lot more productive if Bridgewater is under center this weekend.

Tight End

I’m still not comfortable starting Mike Gesicki, who hasn’t seen more than four targets in a game yet this season. He is still playing in the slot around 55% of the time but his playing time isn’t the greatest, while ranking just 22nd among all tight ends in routes run.

Vikings

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins was very efficient last week, completing 32-of-41 passes for 296 yards, one touchdown and one interception. It could have been an even more productive day if Minnesota didn’t score a pair of rushing touchdowns. Cousins has now eclipsed 40 pass attempts in three of five games this season, while the Vikings are playing faster, ranking top-five in pace. He gets a favorable matchup this week, facing a Miami defense that is coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (22.7), while also allowing the third-highest yards per pass attempt (8.3). Minnesota’s new system is starting to come together, as players have seemingly always been open, especially last week. Just 9.1% of Cousins’ passes have been into tight windows so far this season, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Cousins is a solid QB1 against a Miami pass defense that could be without Xavien Howard.

Running Back

The touchdown regression finally hit Dalvin Cook, who scored twice Sunday and rushed for 94 yards on 18 carries. In Weeks 1-4, Cook saw just one carry from inside the 5-yard line — in Week 5 alone, he saw four such carries, which was great to see. Cook saw 20 touches in the game, but it is possible that the Vikings are trying to limit his snaps over the last two weeks, especially after hurting his shoulder in Week 3. This past weekend, Cook played a season-low 57% of the snaps, with Alexander Mattison playing 43% of the snaps and recorded 12 touches. Minnesota did log 74 offensive plays against the Bears, up from their season average of 65 plays per game, but we continue to see Mattison also take third-down snaps from Cook. In fact, over the past two weeks, Mattison has played 18-of-22 third downs. Of course, you are still starting Cook every single week, even against a Dolphins run defense that has played well this season, though they did just allow nearly 200 scrimmage yards and a score to Breece Hall last week, along with two touchdowns to Michael Carter. But keep an eye on his snap count over the next few weeks.

Wide Receiver

You could tell right away that it was going to be a huge game from Justin Jefferson last week. He was targeted four times on the opening drive, ultimately finishing with 12 catches for 154 yards on 13 targets. Jefferson added a two-point conversion and was a yard away from scoring a touchdown. After a rough stretch, Jefferson has now hauled in 22 balls on 26 targets over the last two weeks, as Minnesota has gotten back to using him in creative ways. He lined up out of the backfield three times Sunday, while lining up in the slot 18 times, the second-most in a game this season. Like all offenses should do for their best player, the Vikings are scheming Jefferson open, as his 3.7 average yards of separation ranks top-10 among all wide receivers this season. You love to see it. 

It’s pretty clear that when Jefferson isn’t having a rough game, Adam Thielen will. The veteran had just 27 receiving yards last week, though he has seen at least seven targets in each of his last four games, which is good to see. Thielen only has two end zone targets through five weeks, but he is seeing enough consistent work to remain in the WR3 range for most weeks. 

Tight End

Irv Smith has now been over 60% of the snaps in each of the last two games, while running a route on 56-of-84 dropbacks during that span (66%). He is coming off a season-high 42 receiving yards and since Week 2, Smith is averaging nearly six targets per game, which is serviceable for a tight end. He remains an extremely viable streaming candidate this week, especially against a Miami defense that is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (11.54).

Cincinnati Bengals @ New Orleans Saints

Total: 43, CIN -2
Pace: NO: 27.78 sec/snap (18th), CIN: 27.02 sec/snap (7th)

What to watch for: The Saints continue to deal with injuries. Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston are both questionable. And now WR Chris Olave is in the concussion protocol. For the Bengals, Tee Higgins is questionable with an ankle injury.

Saints

Quarterback

With Jameis Winston continuing to deal with a back injury, Andy Dalton has started the last two games for the Saints. We’ve seen far fewer deep shots from Dalton than we were seeing from Winston, as 34.6% of Dalton’s pass attempts have been to the intermediate area of the field this season (0-9 yards), the highest rate in the league. This is a tough matchup, as the Bengals have been really good against quarterbacks, surrendering the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (12.53), while Cincinnati is also allowing the fourth-lowest passing touchdown rate at 2.1%. On top of the Taysom Hill impact (more on that later), it is tough to be excited about a Saints quarterback for this week.

Running Back

The good news? Alvin Kamara was terrific last week, totaling 194 scrimmage yards on 29 touches. The bad news? He didn’t score a touchdown and continued to lose red zone work to Taysom Hill. Through three games, Kamara has yet to touch the football from inside the 10-yard line, while obviously seeing zero carries from inside the 5. Kamara did play a season-high 73% of the snaps and saw six targets, but it is fair to wonder how consistent his role in the passing game will be once Winston returns. You are still starting Kamara, but be prepared to be annoyed when Hill takes short-yardage carries, which is something that the Saints are going to continue doing. Hill has handled 43% of the Saints carries from inside the 10-yard line so far this season, as well as 33.3% of New Orleans’ carries from inside the 5. 

Wide Receiver

New Orleans has had question marks at wide receiver for much of the season. Michael Thomas, who has missed the last two games with a foot injury, could return in Week 6, but now Chris Olave is in the concussion protocol. Olave has been stellar, finding the end zone in each of the last two games and ranking as the WR14 in fantasy. If he is cleared in time to play in this game, you are most likely starting him, as the upside has been tremendous. He’s been seeing so many high-value targets, leading the NFL in deep targets (14), while also seeing three end zone looks. Olave has seen 42.1% of the Saints’ air yards so far this season, the fourth-highest rate in football. 

Meanwhile, Thomas will pencil in as a low-end WR2 this week if he is active. In 2021, Chidobe Awuzie shadowed wide receivers quite often, doing so seven times. However, so far in 2022, he hasn’t really shadowed anyone, though he did line up against tight end Mark Andrews a bit last week. Meanwhile, Jarvis Landry missed last week’s game with an ankle injury, which led to Tre’Quan Smith moving into the slot for just over 65% of his snaps. If Olave and Landry are out this week, Smith and Marquez Callaway would be worth a look in deeper 3WR leagues, or as value plays in DFS.

Tight End

All right. Let’s get into it.

Taysom Hill, who is TE-eligible on most fantasy sites, played four total snaps at the position last week. And yet, he gave you around 34 fantasy points, rushing for 112 yards and three touchdowns on nine carries and also throwing a 22-yard touchdown. Hill has played 16 total snaps at tight end this season, lining up at quarterback 24 times, out wide seven times and in the backfield six. He obviously isn’t going to score four touchdowns in a game again, but this type of role at a tight end position in fantasy is essentially a cheat code, especially when you consider that the tight ends after the top five or six are all essentially touchdown-or-bust anyway. And while Hill isn’t going to catch many (if any) passes, his chances of scoring have to be higher than most tight ends in the TE10-20 range because he has seen three carries from inside the 10-yard line, accounting for 43% of New Orleans carries from that area of the field. Hill is averaging 5.2 rushing attempts per game and while he’s only played 57 snaps on offense, when Hill is on the field, he is touching the ball, doing so on nearly 40% of his snaps so far this season. In leagues where you can start Hill at tight end, he is a borderline top-12 option. 

Source: NFL Next Gen Stats

Bengals

Quarterback

You know, I bet if you walked into the Bengals facility and uttered the words “Cover 2 defense,” the entire offense would roll their eyes. I’m sure the Bengals are tired of hearing about it, but the fact remains that they are struggling to adjust right now. And it isn’t anything new, as the Chiefs and Bills struggled for weeks last season before getting it going. Cincinnati’s struggles continued Sunday night against the Ravens, who ran Cover-2 over half of the time against the Bengals. Joe Burrow struggled, his third game with less than 6.5 yards per attempt. Nearly 20% of Burrow’s pass attempts have come against Cover-2 so far this season, which has led to less vertical plays from this offense. Burrow is currently 6.6 intended air yards per pass attempt, the sixth-lowest mark among all quarterbacks, down from his 2021 mark of 8.1. He is also averaging just 3.0 completed air yards per pass attempt, the fourth-lowest rate among qualified signal callers. It doesn’t help that Zac Taylor has orchestrated one of the least creative offenses in football, though we did see the Bengals try a few different things last week. This week, Burrow will face a Saints defense that has been slightly above league average against the pass, though they did just allow 268 yards and three touchdowns to Geno Smith last week. Burrow is my QB8 for Week 6.

Running Back

Joe Mixon continues to struggle with efficiency, though he did just rush for 78 yards on 14 carries. If teams continue to play defense like this against Cincinnati, Mixon’s efficiency has to climb, as he’ll see so many light boxes. So far this season, Mixon is seeing stacked boxes on just 17.7% of his carries and I wouldn’t be shocked if that number dropped even more going forward. Sure, for the year, Mixon is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and an ugly 3.7 yards per touch, while only five of his 96 carries have gone for five or more yards. We did see the Bengals offensive line create more running lanes last week and at the end of the day, the volume is still elite, as Mixon is averaging 23.2 touches per game. He also leads the NFL in carries from inside the 5-yard line with 10. And with at least three receptions in every game this season, the floor is strong. 

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase hasn’t reached the century mark since Week 1, as he also is being impacted by the approach of opposing defenses. Chase is sporting an aDOT of 9.5 yards so far this season, down from his 12.9 mark from a season ago. He is also averaging just 6.5 yards per target, way down from his 11.3 mark from 2021, which was top-five in all of football. We did see Cincinnati dial up some screens for Chase last week, while even lining him up in the backfield twice, as they try to scheme him targets. I would hope that would continue going forward, especially if Tee Higgins remains sidelined. Chase is still sporting a healthy 28% target share on the year, while seeing double-digit targets in three of five games, but the yardage has obviously fallen off a cliff. Chase is still a must-start wide receiver, but his ceiling may not be realized until the Bengals solve this Cover-2 equation. 

After being questionable during the week, Higgins was ultimately active Sunday night. However, he apparently aggravated his ankle injury, limiting him to just 10 offensive snaps. I’d love to see him get some full practice sessions in so I don’t have to worry about a similar situation in Week 6. As long as that is the case, I am starting Higgins with zero hesitation, especially considering how good he’s been when on the field, ranking 14th in fantasy points per snap (0.33). However, if he is unable to play, Tyler Boyd becomes a much more appealing WR3 candidate. He’s been quiet the last two weeks but in three games with Higgins inactive since last season, Boyd is averaging nearly two more targets, two more receptions and three more fantasy points per game. He’ll also remain in the slot, which is the area to attack the Saints.

Tight End

Hayden Hurst was pretty involved last week, hauling in six-of-seven targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. Hurst has benefited from teams taking away the deep passes this season, as he’s sporting the 11th-lowest aDOT among all tight ends (4.6 yards), while ranking 29th in yards per target (5.6). He is fifth among all tight ends in routes run and should remain plenty involved this week, especially if Higgins can’t play. Hurst is a very strong streaming tight end this week and a borderline top-12 tight end.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 44, TB -8
Pace: PIT: 27.63 sec/snap (12th), TB: 27.59 sec/snap (11th)

What to watch for: Pat Freiermuth suffered a concussion against the Bills on Sunday. For Tampa Bay, defensive back Carlton Davis is dealing with a hip injury.

Steelers

Quarterback

In his first career start, I thought Kenny Pickett demonstrated a lot of good things. He had a few impressive touch passes to Diontae Johnson that he just couldn’t corral in bounds, while continuing to take plenty of shots down the field. He is currently averaging a healthy 8.2 intended air yards per pass attempt and over the last two weeks, his 10 deep passes are good for the seventh in the league. And keep in mind that is only in six quarters of work. Pickett is still not someone I am comfortable taking a chance on outside of superflex formats, especially against a Tampa Bay defense that is coughing up the fifth-fewest points per drive in football through five weeks (1.46).

Running Back

I have no clue how you can comfortably start Najee Harris right now. For starters, the Steelers offense is still bad, along with the offensive line. Harris is currently averaging less than a yard before contact per rush and while we knew he wasn’t likely going to be efficient entering the year, we at least had the work in the passing game to fall back on. However, that has suddenly disappeared, as Harris has just three catches over the last two weeks and is now losing third down snaps to Jaylen Warren. Over the last two weeks, Warren is playing over 70% of the snaps on third down and I don’t think his playing time is going anywhere but up, especially after head coach Tomlin said that the team is going to continue to play him more. Things are looking pretty bleak for Harris at the moment, especially since Warren has been more efficient, recording just one less run of 10-plus yards on 50 fewer attempts. Harris, a consensus first-round selection in fantasy drafts over the summer, is currently an RB3.

Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson was targeted 13 times last week, though he only turned that volume into five receptions for 50 yards. Johnson has been inches away from a touchdown in consecutive games and still leads the Steelers in targets when looking at just Pickett’s pass attempts over the last two weeks. He has seen at least 10 targets in four of five games to start the season and given how bad the Steelers look, this team should be throwing a lot, only solidifying his volume each week. This isn’t a stellar matchup or anything, but the Steelers are eight-point home underdogs, so they’ll be throwing a lot here, while the matchup is improved if Carlton Davis (hip) is unable to play. Johnson is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

The addition of Pickett has been great for George Pickens, who leads the Steelers in receiving over the last two games. He was targeted on over 30% of his routes once Pickett entered the game in Week 4 and over the last two weeks combined, is being targeted on 25% of his routes, while recording 102 and 83 receiving yards. With Pickett taking plenty of deep shots, Pickens has benefited, as he leads all wideouts in deep targets over the last two weeks with six. Pickett is giving Johnson, Pickens and Chase Claypool chances to make plays down the field in single coverage, boosting their potential. Pickens looks like a future star, and given his uptick in involvement, the rookie is pushing WR3 territory.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth left Sunday’s game with a concussion, so we’ll have to keep an eye on his status. His targets haven’t been as high with Pickett under center, mainly because Pickett has been more aggressive and throwing outside the numbers more often than Mitch Trubisky was. Still, if he is active, it is tough to find many tight ends with a safer role than Freiermuth. Keep an eye on his status over the course of the week.

Buccaneers

Quarterback

If Tampa Bay is back to being a pass-first team, Tom Brady is going to return to top-five fantasy status. Sure, the Bucs were playing from behind against the Chiefs in Week 4, which led to 52 pass attempts from Brady. However, in Week 5, the Bucs were up 21-0 and ahead throughout the entire game, and yet Brady still attempted 52 passes again. Over the last two weeks, Tampa Bay is sporting the league’s second-highest neutral-script passing rate (65.5%), which is more in line with what we saw from this offense a season ago. With most of the pass-catchers healthy and the Bucs airing it out, Brady should thrive against a struggling Pittsburgh secondary that was just torched by Buffalo’s passing game last week and are now coughing up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (22.07). They are also one of five teams allowing at least two passing touchdowns per game. 

Running Back

Leonard Fournette is coming off an awesome game, rushing for 56 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, but he really made a difference in the passing game, hauling in 10-of-11 targets for 83 yards and a second touchdown. Fournette is starting to lose playing time to rookie running back Rachaad White, who has logged just under 40% of the snaps over the past two weeks, while Fournette has hovered around 60%. It is notable when you consider that Fournette was playing around 90% of the snaps during the second half of last season. You are still starting Fournette, especially given his usage in the passing game, but I cannot stress enough how important it is to make sure White isn’t available in your league.

Wide Receiver

Start all of the wide receivers against the Steelers.

They just allowed touchdown receptions of 98 and 60 yards to Gabe Davis last week, while also allowing 100 yards and a score to Stefon Diggs. They have now allowed five wide receivers to reach the 100-yard mark against them this season, while a whopping nine wide receivers have at least 95 yards or a score against them. Top defensive back Ahkello Witherspoon continues to deal with an injury, while Pittsburgh’s pass rush simply hasn’t been the same without T.J. Watt, as they are sporting the fifth-lowest pressure rate in the league at 16.3%. Mike Evans was a yard away from finding the end zone last week, while Chris Godwin was also tackled at the 1-yard line. We did see Tampa Bay limit Godwin’s snaps a bit this week, as he played just 52% of the snaps after logging 83% in his first game back last Sunday night. Perhaps it was just due to the Bucs having control of the game and not wanting to overwork Godwin but even if he plays 60% of the snaps, that’s all it will take to post strong numbers against this Steelers defense. Start Evans and Godwin as top-12 wide receivers this weekend.

WRs vs. the Steelers in 2022

Tight End

With Cameron Brate out with a concussion last week, rookie Cade Otton got the start at tight end and was pretty involved, hauling in six-of-seven targets for 43 yards. He played around 94% of the snaps and ran a route on 87% of dropbacks, which is tremendous usage. If Brate remains sidelined, Otton becomes a very solid streaming tight end this week, especially against Pittsburgh’s awful pass defense that is allowing the sixth-highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL this season at 5.7%. 

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants

Total: 45, BAL -5
Pace: NYG: 27.76 sec/snap (17th), BAL: 30.2 sec/snap (29th)

What to watch for: Will the Giants WRs return to the lineup? And Rashod Bateman (foot) missed last week’s game. We’ll see if he plays in Week 6.

Giants

Quarterback

Daniel Jones failed to throw a touchdown pass for the third consecutive game, but given the Giants lack of pass-catchers, it is tough to blame him. He did, however, rush for at least 30 yards for the third straight contest and is now averaging 8.2 rushing attempts and 46 rushing yards per game through five weeks, which certainly helps. The Ravens are coughing up 21.6 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, the eighth-most in the league, but it is impossible for Jones to have a true ceiling game given the makeup of this passing game right now. 

Running Back

Continue to start Saquon Barkley, who looks amazing right now. He left Sunday morning’s game with a shoulder injury, but after missing one drive, Barkley returned and immediately took a pass 41 yards, which ultimately set up his rushing touchdown. The Giants have been giving Barkley a handful of wildcat carries per game lately, as he remains the complete focal point of this offense, averaging 23 touches per game. He has 100 total yards or a touchdown in four of five games this season and is seemingly ripping off a long run every week, as he ranks second in runs of both 10- and 15-plus yards. He’ll probably be a bit limited in practice throughout the week, but Barkley should be out there Sunday.

Wide Receiver

Darius Slayton took advantage of his opportunity last week, catching six passes for 79 yards. He was targeted seven times — if Wan’Dale Robinson, Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay remain sidelined, Slayton could be worth a look in deeper leagues, or potentially as a DFS value play. Golladay and Toney haven’t been practicing this week, while Robinson did get a limited practice in so far.

Tight End

If you need tight end help in deeper leagues, Daniel Bellinger remains viable. He found the end zone last week and will continue to play if Chris Myarick (ankle) is out. Bellinger played a career-high 74% of the snaps in London last week, while running a route on 55% of Jones’ dropbacks. 

Ravens

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson had a down game last week, completing 19-of-32 passes for 174 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Jackson just missed two long touchdown throws that would have made his day look a lot better. He now faces a Giants defense that is playing well right now and just held Aaron Rodgers and company to zero second half points a week ago. New York is coughing up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but this could actually be an advantageous spot for Jackson. With Don Martindale as the Giants defensive coordinator, this unit has been very aggressive, sporting the league’s highest blitz rate at 43.3%. Jackson has been fantastic against the blitz so far this season, sporting the 10th-best completion percentage (66.1%), while ranking sixth in yards per attempt (8.4) and second in passing touchdowns (7) against the play type. You are obviously starting Jackson, but I think this matchup isn’t as worry-worthy as the numbers may suggest.

Running Back

After playing 50% of the snaps in his second game back in Week 4, J.K. Dobbins dropped to 43% of the snaps Sunday night. Kenyan Drake played most of the fourth quarter and played every snap in the two-minute drill. John Harbaugh said Dobbins was on a snap count, so it’ll be interesting to see what his playing time looks like this week. You can definitely run on the Giants, as they are surrendering 5.0 yards per attempt and 131.6 rushing yards per game, both bottom-seven numbers in the league. They are also allowing the third-most adjusted line yards (5.12) and are stuffing just 11% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, the second-lowest rate in football. So while this is a good matchup for Dobbins, the uncertainty in his touches and playing time keeps him in the flex range for me.

Wide Receiver

With Rashod Bateman out with a foot injury last week, Devin Duvernay stepped in as the clear WR1 for the Ravens. He was targeted seven times, catching five passes for 54 yards, while adding three carries for an additional 24 yards. He played out wide 70% of the time, which makes this a tough matchup for him if Bateman remains sidelined and Duvernay continues to play on the outside, as the Giants have been terrific against perimeter wide receivers. We saw that last week where they held both Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs in check, while Randall Cobb flirted with 100 yards out of the slot. If Bateman is out again, Duvernay should still see enough opportunities to warrant WR3 consideration in deeper leagues.

Tight End

After a quiet game in Week 4, Mark Andrews returned to his elite ways Sunday night, catching eight-of-10 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. Andrews is currently sporting a 34% target share, the highest rate from a tight end by nearly 9%, while his 39.5% of Baltimore’s air yards is also the highest rate at the position. I don’t know about you, but I’d probably keep him in my starting lineup.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Total: 50.5, ARI -2.5
Pace: SEA: 27.85 sec/snap (21st), ARI: 25.5 sec/snap (2nd)

What to watch for: Rashaad Penny will miss the remainder of the season with a fractured fibula. For Arizona, James Conner is dealing with a rib injury and is questionable. 

Seahawks

Quarterback

Geno Smith can’t be stopped. He threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns last week, giving him three consecutive games with at least 23 fantasy points. Smith is now the QB7 in all of fantasy — he’s legitimately played the quarterback position as well as anyone in football through five weeks. Some of the throws he is making are truly jaw-dropping — per NFL Next Gen Stats, Smith is completing 75.2% of his passes, which is much higher than his expected completion percentage of 65.6%. The difference is easily the highest in football. Smith is attacking the middle of the field in ways Russell Wilson rarely ever did during his time in Seattle, which is opening up this offense even more. Smith now ranks fifth among all signal callers in fantasy points per dropback (0.58), behind only Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. He’ll have a great chance of finding continued success this week, facing an Arizona team that is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (19.9). Opposing offenses are scoring points on 45.8% of drives against the Cardinals this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league, while Arizona is also coughing up the third-most points (2.46) and fifth-most plays per drive (6.3). Geno remains a back-end QB1 this week. While this production may not be sustainable, his great play is no fluke.

I’d start Smith over: Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, possibly Joe Burrow

Running Back

After a promising start to the season, Rashaad Penny will unfortunately be out for the remainder of the year. Enter Kenneth Walker, who will operate as the lead back for Seattle for the rest of the season. Walker ripped off a very nice 69-yard touchdown run once Penny left the game last week and should be in line for 15-20 touches per game going forward. It is only 23 attempts and last week’s run skews things a bit, but Walker is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and 5.5 yards per touch. It remains to be seen how much of a role he’ll have in the passing game but considering Travis Homer is also on IR, it is entirely possible Walker is a three-down back. If you used all of your FAAB to add Walker to your team, I don’t envision many scenarios where you aren’t starting him this week.

Wide Receiver

There was a lot of concern about how DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett would perform without Russell Wilson this year, which pushed the ADP of both wideouts down quite a bit over the summer. It turns out we were all wrong, as Geno is playing so well, supporting both players. Metcalf is currently the WR19 in PPR formats, while Lockett is the WR8 after his 5-catch, 104-yard, 2-touchdown performance last week. This is an insanely concentrated offense right now, which is what we want for fantasy. Metcalf and Lockett have accounted for a whopping 54% of Seattle’s targets through five weeks and are both obvious must-start wideouts right now. 

Metcalf continues to see the bulk of the red zone looks, as he’s been responsible for 50% of Seattle’s red zone targets, the highest rate in the league. He’s only caught one of his seven red zone looks so far this season, so there is even room for some positive regression in the touchdown department. The Cardinals continue to do a tremendous job of limiting opposing top wideouts, holding Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, DJ Moore and A.J. Brown all under 55 receiving yards this season, while only Adams found the end zone. We’ve seen Byron Murphy shadow a few times this season and while I’m not benching Metcalf, I do expect Lockett to be the more productive wide receiver again. Lockett has posted at least 76 receiving yards in each of his last four games, while averaging a healthy nine targets per game during that stretch. 

Tight End

The Seahawks continue to play both Will Dissly and Noah Fant. The split continued last week when Dissly logged 63% of the snaps and Fant played 60%, while Fant ran 18 routes to Dissly’s 15. Given how surprisingly productive the offense has been this season, we could easily be looking at a top-12 fantasy tight end if it were just one tight end getting all of the work. But until that happens, both Dissly and Fant remain risky TE2 plays. The matchup is good enough to chase production, as Arizona is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (15.92), as well as the most receptions (7.2), targets (9.4) and second-most receiving yards (87.2) per game to the position.

Cardinals

Quarterback

Has anyone told Kyler Murray he’s allowed to start off games well? Seemingly every week, Arizona’s offense starts slow, it looks like Murray will disappoint and he still ends up scoring 20 fantasy points. Arizona continues to present very little downfield passing, as Murray is averaging just 6.1 intended air yards per pass attempt, tied for the lowest mark in the league. Meanwhile, his 2.7 completed air yards per pass attempt is the third-lowest mark. He is throwing the ball a lot, which helps, averaging 43 pass attempts per game, which would easily be a career high. Perhaps this is the week Murray connects on some deep passes, facing a Seattle team that is allowing 8.9 yards per pass attempt, the most in football, while only the Commanders are surrendering a higher aDOT (9.2 yards). This game could feature a ton of points, as both teams rank top-five in no-huddle rate, while opposing offenses are averaging 2.94 points per drive against the Seahawks this season, the most in the league. Teams are also scoring points on 52% of drives against Seattle, also the highest rate in football. Murray should post his best game of the season this weekend.

Running Back

James Conner left Week 5’s game early with a rib injury and did not return. He was not practicing Wednesday, and with Arizona adding players to the practice squad, Conner should be considered pretty questionable to play in Week 6. With Darrel Williams also dealing with an injury, Eno Benjamin logged most of the snaps in the second half last week, rushing for 25 yards and a score on eight carries, while adding three receptions. Williams is not expected to play this week so if Conner is ruled out, Benjamin would be in line for a rather large workload against an awful Seattle run defense that is surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points (25.5), second-most rushing yards (130.8) and seventh-most receiving yards (45.0) per game to opposing backfields. Keep an eye on Conner’s status throughout the week but if he is ruled out, Benjamin would be a top-24 running back, especially with three top-15 running backs on bye this week.

RBs vs. Seattle in 2022

Wide Receiver

Marquise Brown is on a tear right now. He has 100 yards or a touchdown in four of five games and over his last four games, Brown is averaging a gaudy 12.2 targets, 8.5 receptions and 93.5 receiving yards per game, ranking as the WR4 in all of fantasy during that stretch. Brown has seen just under 27% of Arizona’s targets so far this season, while his 39.4% of the team’s air yards is a top-seven rate in the league. His 10 deep targets are tied for the fourth-most in the league, while his seven targets off screens are tied for fifth. He is an obvious must-start wide receiver and it’ll be interesting to see what this offense looks like once DeAndre Hopkins makes his 2022 debut. 

The return of A.J. Green had plenty of implications on this wide receiver room. In Week 4, his first game of the season, Rondale Moore played without Green. And because Greg Dortch was the WR3 then, Moore was forced to play out wide, as he lined up on the outside over 63% of the time. As a result, Moore saw more work down the field, sporting an aDOT of 10.4 yards, way up from his 2021 mark of 1.3. However, with Green back last week, Moore moved back to the slot, lining up inside 83% of the time, which bumped his aDOT back down to 2.3. Still, he was targeted eight times in the game, catching seven passes for 68 yards. The Cardinals have manufactured touches for Moore in his first two games back, as his five screen targets are third-most in the league over the last two weeks. He has a stellar matchup this week, facing rookie slot defensive back Coby Bryant, who is coughing up 0.41 fantasy points per coverage route, a bottom-five mark in the league. Seattle has struggled to defend slot wide receivers this season, allowing three touchdowns from the slot, making Moore a strong WR3 for me this week.

Tight End

Zach Ertz continues to present such a safe floor. He’s seen double-digit targets in three of his last four games, while catching at least six passes in every game during that stretch. Ertz still ranks third in the NFL in targets from inside the 10-yard line (7), while his four end zone targets are the second-most among tight ends. Look for him to continue playing well against a Seattle defense that is coughing up 23.6 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, easily the most in the NFL. Of course, a lot of that is skewed from Taysom Hill’s performance last week, but the Seahawks have still allowed four receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season, the most in the league.

Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Rams

Total: 41, LAR -10.5
Pace: LAR: 29.14 sec/snap (27th), CAR: 24.63 sec/snap (1st)

What to watch for: Baker Mayfield suffered a high-ankle sprain and is unlikely to play this week. PJ Walker is set to start at QB for the Panthers.

Rams

Quarterback

The Rams offense is absolutely broken right now. There is no pass protection for Matthew Stafford, as he’s been under duress on 34.6% of his dropbacks so far this season, the eighth-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, there is no downfield passing attack in this offense, while they’re also struggling to run the football. Stafford is currently the QB23 in fantasy, averaging just 0.31 fantasy points per dropback. He hasn’t scored multiple touchdowns since Week 2, and it’s difficult to start him with any sort of confidence right now. The good news, potentially, is that Carolina ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate (4.6%), while sporting the league’s 11th-lowest pressure rate (20.4%). Still, Stafford projects as a mid-range QB2 right now.

Running Back

Los Angeles is so invested in getting Cam Akers going, which I do not understand. Akers carried the ball 13 times for 33 yards last week and is now averaging just 3.2 yards per touch on the year. If the Rams continue to try establishing the run with Akers this week, it is possible he finds success, facing a Carolina defense that was just gashed by Tevin Coleman and Jeff Wilson to the tune of 200 total yards and three touchdowns last week. The Panthers are also coughing up the sixth-most rushing yards per game on the year (137.8), but I’d still temper expectations. Darrell Henderson, meanwhile, didn’t see a single carry last week, but added four receptions for 30 yards. Perhaps the Rams turn to Henderson this week but I’m not looking to rely on this backfield unless I am really hurting at running back.

Wide Receiver

Again, the Rams are really the easiest team to discuss right now. You are starting Cooper Kupp, who is the best player in all of fantasy football. He’s had 100 receiving yards in four of five games, is averaging 12.8 targets per game and is essentially guaranteed to score 20 fantasy points. Outside of Kupp, you aren’t starting any wide receivers from this offense, especially given what Allen Robinson has (or hasn’t) done.

Tight End

Despite not finding the end zone yet, Tyler Higbee is still the TE6 in fantasy. His 25.2% target share is the second-highest rate among all tight ends this season, while averaging 9.6 targets per contest. Because the Rams offensive line is putrid and Stafford has no time to throw the football, Higbee and his 3.8-yard aDOT (seventh lowest) are getting a bunch of targets. Given this insane volume, the touchdowns are going to start surfacing for Higbee, who leads FTN Fantasy’s difference between actual and expected fantasy points among tight ends this season (-25.8). Continue to start him as a borderline top-five tight end.

Panthers

Quarterback

With Baker Mayfield expected to miss some time with an ankle sprain, the Panthers will turn to PJ Walker at quarterback. Walker has played in nine games over the past two seasons in Carolina, throwing just two touchdowns to eight interceptions. It’ll be interesting to see if this Panthers offense finally finds some rhythm, especially after firing Matt Rhule. Regardless, you aren’t starting Walker in fantasy unless you need a bye week replacement in a superflex league this week.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey has now seen a whopping 21 targets over the last two weeks, which is the type of usage we want to continue to see. He played well against an elite San Francisco run defense, rushing for 54 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries, while adding seven receptions for 50 yards. He’s eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards in four-of-five games this season and McCaffrey now leads all running backs with a 22.3% target share on the season. This week’s matchup with the Rams isn’t an easy one but McCaffrey should continue to see 15 carries and 7-10 receptions. 

Wide Receiver

The Rams have quietly been horrible against opposing wide receivers this season, surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points (34.5), most receptions (15.8) and fifth-most receiving yards per game (189.8) per game to the position. Still, DJ Moore has yet to reach 60 receiving yards in a game this season, though at least the Panthers have been finding ways to get him more involved, as he’s seen a healthy 19 targets over the last two weeks. Hopefully that continues going forward but Moore remains a low-end WR3 at best at the moment.

Tight End

I am not starting any tight ends from the Panthers in fantasy. No thanks.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 54, BUF -2.5
Pace: KC: 27.72 sec/snap (16th), BUF: 27.8 sec/snap (19th)

What to watch for: Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox should be back in the lineup for the Bills this week, as well as Jordan Poyer and Tremaine Edmunds.

Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes is at home against the Bills in a game with an implied total of nearly 55 points. Do I need to say anything more? Yes, the Buffalo defense is tough, but we know Mahomes is matchup proof. He is top-five in fantasy points per dropback this season and has now tossed seven touchdown passes over the last two weeks. These two offenses lead the league in third-down conversion rate, so plenty of points should be scored in this contest. 

Running Back

Clyde Edwards-Helaire finally failed to find the end zone, resulting in just 6.5 fantasy points. He continues to split work with Jerick McKinnon, who played 53% of the snaps last week, compared to 43% for CEH. Edwards-Helaire touched the ball 12 times, while McKinnon was more effective on his 10 touches, rushing for 53 yards. CEH has yet to reach the 60% snap mark in a game this season, while both he and McKinnon have handled 30% of Kansas City’s rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line so far this season. Averaging 13.2 touches per game on the year, Edwards-Helaire is a touchdown dependent RB2 against a very strong Buffalo run defense.

Wide Receiver

It is tough to feel too confident starting any Kansas City wide receivers right now. JuJu Smith-Schuster has seen exactly eight targets in each of his last three games, including four of five on the year, but he hasn’t done too much with those looks. He has yet to find the end zone and has yet to even see a target from inside the 10-yard line. I liked him last week against a Raiders defense that had been struggling to defend slot receivers and he didn’t get it done, making it tough to get too excited about him against a Bills defense that is surrendering the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts on the year.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, meanwhile, is coming off his best game of the season, hauling in 6-of-8 targets for 90 yards. He has seen at least seven targets in three of his last four games and finally started to see some targets down the field last week, sporting an aDOT of nearly 11 yards and recording receptions of 14, 16 and 18 yards. In a high-scoring affair, MVS sets up as a viable flex in PPR leagues, while his floor has been a lot higher than it had been during his time in Green Bay.

Tight End

Travis Kelce may have only had 25 receiving yards last week but made up for the lack of yardage by scoring four touchdowns. Kelce now leads the NFL in targets from inside the 10-yard line this season with 10, while seeing nearly 40% of Kansas City’s targets from that area of the field. You are obviously starting him every week.

Bills 

Quarterback

Josh Allen just destroyed the Steelers to the tune of 424 yards and four touchdowns, while adding 42 rushing yards. If Pittsburgh made this a game, Allen would have been setting some records. The QB1 in each of the past two seasons, Allen is once again the QB1 through five weeks in 2022, averaging 30.1 fantasy points per game. Having Gabriel Davis fully healthy changed this Buffalo offense, as Allen posted an aDOT of 14.9 yards, a number that was at just 7.1 in Weeks 1-4. Allen destroyed the Chiefs last season, throwing for 315 yards and three touchdowns (while adding a rushing score) in Week 4, followed by 329 yards and four touchdowns in the playoff rematch. Kansas City is allowing the sixth-most points per drive so far this season (2.38), while they have also struggled in the red zone, as opponents are scoring touchdowns on 81.3% of red zone trips against the Chiefs, the second-highest rate in all of football. Expect more fireworks from Allen and company this weekend.

Running Back

In competitive games, it appears Devin Singletary is going to dominate the snaps. Buffalo has played in two contests that weren’t blowouts, and in those games, Singletary has logged 73% and 88% of the snaps. He played 100% of Buffalo’s red zone snaps last week and in what should be a tight game this weekend, Singletary should log at least 70% of the snaps. This is a great spot for him, as he’s been a lot more involved in the passing game this season, averaging 4.6 targets and 3.6 receptions per game. Meanwhile, his 12.57% target share quietly ranks 10th among all running backs, while only Christian McCaffrey has run more pass routes among running backs than Singletary this season (137). 22.8% of Buffalo’s targets are going to running backs this season, too, a top-seven rate in football. Singletary gets to face a Kansas City defense that is coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points (24.7), most receptions (9.8), receiving yards (70.0) and targets (11.4) per game to opposing backfields on the year. Expect Singletary to get back to 15-plus touches and have a great game this week.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs continued his stellar season Sunday, catching eight passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. Only Davante Adams of the Raiders has seen more end zone targets than Diggs (8), who led the league in that department a season ago, making this nothing new for the All-Pro wideout. A matchup with rookie defensive back Jaylen Watson certainly isn’t one that makes you think Diggs is going to slow down any time soon. He’s an obvious top-three wide receiver once again.

While he was on the field for over 90% of the snaps in Weeks 3 and 4, Gabe Davis clearly wasn’t fully healthy. His routes weren’t crisp at all, and he couldn’t separate. Entering Week 5, however, Davis was a full participant in practice, signaling he was fully over his ankle injury. And it sure looked like it against the Steelers, as he took the top off the defense for 98- and 60-yard touchdown receptions. The second was incredible, as he hauled in an over the shoulder deep ball with one hand before wrestling it away from Minkah Fitzpatrick in the end zone. We know Davis is going to make plays down the field, and he’ll have every opportunity to do just that against a Kansas City team that just allowed a pair of long touchdown catches to Davante Adams last week. The Chiefs are also allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and I can’t quite remember, but I’m pretty sure Davis played pretty well against this defense the last time these teams met…

Tight End

After a one-game absence, Dawson Knox should be back in the lineup this week. He’s had a tough start to the season, but you have to think he is going to find the end zone at some point, right? Diggs is dominating the targets in Buffalo and after that, Allen is spreading the ball around to Davis, Isaiah McKenzie and the running backs, which is hurting Knox, especially since the backfield wasn’t used in the passing game this much a season ago. There is still upside here and Knox is in the TE13-15 range for me ahead of what should be a shootout.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 42, PHI -6
Pace: PHI: 27.15 sec/snap (8th), DAL: 27.64 sec/snap (13th)

What to watch for: Dak Prescott won’t make his return this week, meaning Cooper Rush will start at QB again. 

Eagles

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts is coming off his worst game of the season, throwing for 239 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception. He averaged a season-low 6.6 yards per attempt, as Arizona blitzed him on 50% of his dropbacks, forcing him to get the ball out quickly. Still, all that said, Hurts still scored over 27 fantasy points due to his massive rushing floor. Hurts rushed for 61 yards and a pair of touchdowns and is now averaging 13.6 carries per game, which is more than a handful of starting running backs. He is also averaging 53.2 rushing yards per game, which is essentially starting with five fantasy points before even throwing a pass. This week, Hurts faces his toughest test of the young season, going against a stout Dallas defense that leads the NFL in pressure rate at 33.6%. Hurts actually ranks just 25th in completion percentage (42.1%) when under pressure this season, while averaging 5.3 yards per attempt (23rd). The Cowboys are, however, allowing 22 rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers, the seventh most in football. Hurts is obviously in every starting lineup, but I am interested to see how this matchup plays out.

Running Back

With the Eagles offense struggling a bit last week, Miles Sanders couldn’t do much, rushing for just 58 yards on 15 carries. Sanders added two receptions and is now averaging a very healthy 19.4 touches per game through five weeks. He also played a season-high 74% of the offensive snaps last week and is in a great role right now, with the only thing going against him is the fact that Hurts leads the entire NFL with 10 carries from inside the 5-yard line this season, seeing almost 67% of Philadelphia’s carries from that are of the field. However, Sanders should continue to see 17-20 touches per week, which makes him someone you can comfortably start as a solid RB2.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown is also coming off his worst game of the year, catching just three passes for 32 yards. For what it’s worth, Arizona has been fantastic against opposing top wideouts and Brown still saw a healthy seven targets, tied for his fewest targets in a game this season. Brown still ranks eighth among wide receivers in target share on the season (29.6%), while his 43.4% air yards share is the third-highest rate in all of football. He should see coverage from Trevon Diggs in this game but that is a matchup he can absolutely win. Despite the tough matchup and poor Week 5 outing, Brown remains an easy top-10 wide receiver for this pivotal NFC East showdown.

DeVonta Smith has been a bit up-and-down this season but has reached at least 80 receiving yards in three of his last four games. And the only game he didn’t was a windy, rainy game in Philadelphia. The Eagles looked to counter Arizona’s blitzes with quick passes, which is why Smith saw an insane six targets off screens in Week 5, the most in football. Prior to this game, he had just one target off screens, so it seems more like a matchup-based mirage than something that is going to stick going forward. Smith has massive upside each week, especially this week against Anthony Brown, who has seen the most targets in coverage among all defensive backs in football so far this season (48). He’s allowed two touchdowns and a healthy 0.30 fantasy points per coverage route. Smith is a low-end WR2 for me this weekend.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert was my favorite player at any position entering Week 5, and he delivered, catching 8-of-9 targets for 95 yards. Like Smith, Goedert also saw some designed screens against the Cardinals, seeing two. However, his weren’t something new, as his 10 targets off screens are the most among all tight ends, as the Eagles continue to allow him to make plays after the catch, an area he’s been elite in this year. Goedert’s 11.3 yards after the catch per reception not only leads all tight ends this season, but it is the second-highest mark among all qualified running backs, wide receivers or tight ends. Only Mark Andrews is averaging more yards per route run than Goedert (2.06), who is probably the TE3 each week behind Andrews and Travis Kelce, regardless of matchup.

Cowboys

Quarterback

Cooper Rush will start at quarterback again Sunday night, as Dak Prescott isn’t quite ready to return. Rush has filled in admirably, though Dallas has been relatively conservative, especially last week when they attempted just 16 passes. Rush only has one game above 13.6 fantasy points this season, meaning you shouldn’t start him outside of superflex formats where one of your quarterbacks is on a bye.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott saw the volume last week, rushing for 78 yards on 22 carries. However, it was once again Tony Pollard who ripped off the long run, an impressive 57-yard touchdown. Still, you are essentially relying on that huge play from Pollard if you are starting him in fantasy, as he only touched the ball eight times and for the season, is averaging just over 10 touches per game. Elliott, meanwhile, is not getting targeted in the passing game, catching just five passes on the year, while Pollard is also starting to cut into his red zone work. Now losing the valuable touches we covet, Elliott is essentially getting empty calorie touches against an Eagles run defense that can be elite and over the last four games, Philadelphia is allowing less than 4.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs. I am not too excited to start Elliott or Pollard this week.

RBs I’d start over Elliott and Pollard: Devin Singletary, Raheem Mostert, Melvin Gordon

Wide Receiver

The Dallas Cowboys attempted 16 passes last Sunday. CeeDee Lamb was targeted on eight of them.

For those who struggle with math, that’s a 50% target share, y’all. It’s nothing new for Lamb, who has dominated targets this season, sporting the league’s highest target share at 34.9%, while his 44% air yards share is the second-highest mark. Lamb is being targeted on 33% of his routes this season, the third-highest rate among all wideouts who have run at least 40 pass routes. That volume isn’t going anywhere, and Dallas will have to throw a lot more in this game, legitimately giving Lamb upside to see 15 targets here. The matchup is obviously difficult, but Lamb’s talent and volume keep him in the low-end WR1 range.

Michael Gallup, meanwhile, continues to play plenty. In two games since making his season debut, Gallup has run a route on 82% and 89% of dropbacks. He’s only been targeted eight times over the last two weeks and is nothing more than a desperation WR4, but he remains an incredible hold, as he could easily post WR3 numbers once Prescott returns to the lineup and the offense opens up a bit more.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz, who missed Week 4 with a PCL injury, aggravated it last week. He’s struggled alongside Rush this season and on top of that, he may not be at 100%, which is enough for me to consider benching him, despite the wasteland that is the tight end position in fantasy football. If Schultz is unable to play, the Cowboys will most likely once again split the playing time between rookie Jake Ferguson and one of the coolest names in the NFL, Peyton Hendershot. 

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 46, LAC -5
Pace: LAC: 27.37 sec/snap (9th), DEN: 28.16 sec/snap (23rd)

What to watch for: Keenan Allen has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury and should once again be considered questionable to play. The Broncos, meanwhile, lost LT Garett Bolles for the season, as well as CB Ronald Darby.

Chargers

Quarterback

Justin Herbert played well last week, but the Chargers just happened to score a pair of rushing touchdowns. He looks great and — more importantly — fully healthy since hurting his ribs back in Week 2. According to Player Profiler, Herbert ranks fourth in deep completion rate (55.6%), second in pressured completion rate (56.8%) and sixth in play-action completion rate (73.4%). Denver’s defense has certainly been strong this season, but Herbert obviously isn’t a quarterback you are getting away from, regardless of matchup.

Running Back

After a rough first three weeks, Austin Ekeler has been incredible over the last two games. He scored three touchdowns against the Texans in Week 4 and followed it with a stellar showing against the Browns, rushing for 173 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries, while adding four receptions for 26 yards and a second touchdown. He still played less than 60% of the snaps, while Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel got the goal-line snaps, but Ekeler is making up for it by scoring long touchdowns. It is interesting, however, that all of his touchdowns have come from at least 10 yards out and it is worth pointing out that Michel only played two snaps, a season low. Ekeler still ranks second among all running backs with a 17.2% target share and is touching the ball on 47% of his snaps, one of the highest rates among all running backs. He’ll remain a no-brainer RB1 against a Broncos defense that is struggling against running backs right now. Josh Jacobs destroyed Denver in Week 4 and last week, the Broncos allowed 62 yards on 13 carries to Deon Jackson. The Broncos are allowing a healthy 4.7 yards per carry so far this season.

Wide Receiver

Mike Williams continued to dominate the targets for the Chargers last week, hauling in 10 passes for 134 yards. He saw a massive 39% target share against the Browns and with Keenan Allen sidelined over the last four weeks, Williams is sporting a healthy 26% target share. Williams has been more boom than bust lately, recording consecutive 100-yard games, and has now had at least 100 yards or a touchdown in four of five games to start the season. If Allen plays this week, Williams is a mid-range WR2 but if he’s out, he’s a high-end WR2, despite having to square off against a top-five defensive back in the league in Pat Surtain. 

Allen hasn’t played since Week 1 with a hamstring injury, and because this game is Monday night, unless you have Joshua Palmer on your team, you are most likely going to have to bench him, even if he does end up playing. Palmer’s snap rate went back up to around 80% last week but the production didn’t follow.

Tight End

Gerald Everett disappointed last week, catching just one pass for two yards. He was targeted three times, but the return of Donald Parham impacted Everett, as Parham played nearly 40% of the snaps, while the Chargers ran more 12 personnel than they had all year long. Even if Allen is out of the lineup again, Parham’s return could make Everett a less consistent option at the tight end position going forward. 

Broncos

Quarterback

Russell Wilson is going to play through a partially torn lat, which likely isn’t going to help things. It has been a rough season for Wilson and this Denver offense, as Wilson is completing just 59.4% of his passes, the sixth-worst mark among qualified signal callers. It is tough to have any confidence in Wilson right now and if you hadn’t already, you need to be starting Geno Smith, Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers over him. The Chargers defense hasn’t been as good as many expected this season but Wilson can’t be viewed as anything more than a QB2 until he starts to get things going.

Running Back

With Javonte Williams out for the season, Denver turned to Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone last Thursday. Gordon got the start and logged a season-high 56% of the snaps, touching the ball 18 times for just over 100 yards. It wasn’t the most efficient game from Gordon, but he didn’t turn the ball over, which is certainly important. Boone ended up playing 41% of the snaps, while handling plenty of third downs. Gordon is still going to get the goal line work and is a fine RB2 against a struggling Chargers run defense that is allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season. 

Wide Receiver

With Wilson and Denver’s offense struggling last week, it is actually a miracle that Courtland Sutton finished with five catches for 74 yards. Despite Denver’s offense ranking 30th in points (1.29) per drive, Sutton has still provided a relatively high floor, posting at least 70 receiving yards in all but one contest. He’s only scored one touchdown, but his seven end zone targets are tied for the third most in football, while he’s seen about 16% of Denver’s end zone looks. If this offense gets on track and starts converting in the red zone, Sutton’s ceiling will be as high as many thought it might be entering the season. Sutton remains a strong WR2 with WR1 upside.

Jerry Jeudy is clearly the WR2 in Denver right now, as Wilson continues to lean towards targeting the perimeter, which is where Sutton primarily plays. Jeudy, meanwhile, is lining up in the slot about 73% of the time so far this season. He’s still seeing decent volume, but his 17.6% target share is well behind Sutton’s 28% target share, which ranks 11th in the league. Jeudy is a WR3 going forward.

Tight End

I am not starting any tight ends from Denver. Albert Okwuegbunam has been phased out of the offense as of late, playing just 16 total snaps over the last two weeks. The Broncos already use multiple tight ends and rookie Greg Dulcich is going to make his debut before you know it, possibly even this week.