Week 16 Fantasy Football Game By Game Breakdown

Oh, the weather outside is frightful.

Between the holiday season and the forecast for this weekend, there couldn’t be a more appropriate song for Week 16 of the fantasy football season. Multiple games are going to be impacted by cold weather and massive winds, which is only going to make fantasy football more stressful and difficult. On top of all that, injuries and news are still very much evident, making this one of the most bizarre semi-final weeks I can remember.

Let’s get all of us to the title game in Week 17.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets

Total: 38, NYJ -1
Pace: NYJ: 26.91 sec/snap (11th), JAC: 26.08 sec/snap (3rd)

Key news: Mike White (ribs) has been ruled out. Quinnen Williams and Corey Davis are questionable.

Jets

Quarterback

With Mike White unable to play last week, Zach Wilson returned to our lives. And while there was a ton of fear surrounding the Jets skill players with Wilson under center, the sophomore signal caller was fine, completing 18-of-35 passes for 317 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. The interception was laughably bad, but Wilson did enough to keep Garrett Wilson in the high-end WR2 range for fantasy, which is all we can really ask for at this point of the season. The Jets continue to rely more on the run in games with Wilson under center, as they are sporting a neutral-script rush rate of around 47% in Wilson’s starts this season, compared to 33.1% in games with either White or Joe Flacco at quarterback. Jacksonville’s defense has been really bad lately, surrendering 0.256 EPA per dropback since Week 10, easily the worst mark in the league. Of course, Wilson still shouldn’t be started outside of two-quarterback formats where you are desperate.

Running Back

I warned everyone to temper expectations with Zonovan Knight against the Lions suddenly elite run defense last week, and he struggled, rushing for just 23 yards on 13 carries. He was not targeted in the passing game, which isn’t too surprising considering Wilson has not targeted running backs very often. Over the course of the season, Knight ended up playing 48% of the offensive snaps, just behind Michael Carter’s 52%. Knight once again out-touched Carter 13-5 and remains the running back to start from this Jets backfield. Jacksonville is surrendering 0.86 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing backfields on the season, the fifth most in football, and allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. Over the course of the season, Wilson is targeting RBs 17.4% of the time, well behind the running back target shares of 27.3% for Joe Flacco and 21.8% for Mike White. As long as this game stays competitive, which it should be, Knight should be in line for 17-20 touches in a solid matchup, which makes him a low-end RB2. 

Wide Receiver

Despite the quarterback change (again), Garrett Wilson continued to shine last week, hauling in four passes for 98 yards on a team-high nine targets. Wilson has recorded at least 75 receiving yards in six of his last seven games, while the rookie continues to handle most of the high-value targets for the Jets. His nine end zone targets are good for 12th in all of football, and Wilson is also responsible for 35.7% of the team’s targets from inside the 10-yard line (sixth) and 28.8% of the targets from inside the red zone, the 10th-highest rate in the league. He’ll now face a struggling Jacksonville secondary that is allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 64.6% of red zone trips, the fourth-worst rate in the league. The Jaguars have also struggled to slow down opposing wide receivers as of late, coughing up 38.2 receiving fantasy points per game since Week 9, good for seventh most. Wilson remains a rock-solid WR2.

If you took a chance on Elijah Moore last week, it went fine. With Corey Davis sidelined, Moore logged 75% of the snaps and ran a route on 35-of-40 dropbacks (88%). He caught four passes for 51 yards, though his day was salvaged by a 20-yard catch with one second left in regulation. Moore lined up out of the slot 61% of the time last week and if Davis returns, he could remain the full-time slot receiver. However, his playing time will likely drop, while Zach Wilson has leaned on Davis so far in his career. The matchup is favorable, as Tre Herndon has struggled in slot coverage this season, surrendering 11 receptions on 15 targets for 147 yards and a touchdown on 62 coverage snaps, which makes Moore an interesting DFS play on showdown slates, but remains very risky for your fantasy playoff matchups.

WRs vs. Jacksonville since Week 9

Tight End

C.J. Uzomah scored the two touchdowns last week, but Tyler Conklin is still the Jets tight end to play. Uzomah played just over 50% of the snaps, running a route on 22% of dropbacks. His two touchdowns came off blown coverages where he was wide open, something we obviously can’t depend on going forward. Conklin, meanwhile, doubled his routes, though he only saw two targets. This matchup is elite, as the Jaguars are coughing up the eighth-most fantasy points (13.4) and fourth-most receiving yards (61.0) per game to opposing tight ends on the year, while also allowing a league-high 9.4 yards per target to the position. Jacksonville just allowed Dallas backup tight end Peyton Hendershot to score against them last week and have now allowed a tight end to find the end zone in four of the last five games.

Jaguars

Quarterback

Not many players are playing the quarterback position at a higher level than Trevor Lawrence right now.

He stayed hot in a thrilling victory over the Cowboys last week, passing for 318 yards and four touchdowns. Lawrence is now the QB5 in all of fantasy since Week 9 and during that span, the sophomore signal caller also ranks second in adjusted completion percentage (82%), seventh in passing yards (1,680), second in 300-yard games (3), second in touchdown passes (14) and third in PFF’s big time throw rate (6.9%). He is also fifth among quarterbacks in EPA/play during that stretch (0.220) and second in completion rate over expected (5.3). Simply put, Lawrence has arrived and with stellar stat lines against both the Cowboys and Ravens, he has become matchup-proof and should remain a low-end QB1, despite a tough matchup with the Jets this week. I definitely would not expect him to do what he’s been doing in this game, as only one quarterback has posted top-12 numbers against the Jets over the last 10 weeks and it was Josh Allen, but that was mainly due to rushing production, as Allen has just one touchdown pass in two meetings with the Jets this season. Lawrence still has plenty of touchdown upside, however, as he leads the NFL in end zone passes with 38, while 7.6% of his passes are into the end zone, the third-highest rate in the league.

Running Back

He once again lost a fumble and didn’t find the end zone, but Travis Etienne looked good last week, ripping off multiple strong runs, including four that went for at least 10 yards and two for 15-plus. Etienne finished the day with 103 yards on 19 carries, while adding two receptions for 24 yards. He played 73% of the snaps but did miss most of the fourth quarter with an ankle injury, which led to JaMycal Hasty logging 14-of-16 snaps in the fourth quarter. However, Etienne did return for the overtime period, and although it doesn’t seem to be anything to worry about, just keep an eye on it, especially with this being a short week. As long as Etienne is active, he should remain a mid-range RB2 against an elite Jets defense. 18-20 touches should be in the forecast.

Wide Receiver

So is Zay Jones just the WR1 in Jacksonville now? It sure seems like it. Jones went off last week, catching six passes for 109 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys. He was targeted eight times, giving him at least seven targets in each of his last five games, seeing double-digit targets in three games during that span. Since Week 10, Jones is the WR7 in fantasy, while ranking 11th in targets (48), 10th in receptions (35), third in red zone targets (16) and seventh in points per snap (0.35). Jones is now quietly sixth in the league in end zone targets (12), while 28% of his targets on the season have come either in the end zone or 20-plus yards down the field, giving him strong upside each week. This week’s matchup is very difficult — Sauce Gardner has not been targeted in coverage in each of the last two games, and D.J. Reed is playing at an extremely high level as well. Since Week 9, the Jets are allowing just 6.9 yards per target to opposing wideouts, the third-lowest mark in football but given the spike weeks we have seen from Jones, he remains a low-end, volatile WR2.

Christian Kirk undoubtedly has the best matchup of the Jacksonville wide receivers here. Playing in the slot 76.5% of the time, Kirk should avoid Gardner and Reed for most of the game since both defensive backs mostly stay on one side of the field. Kirk will draw coverage from Michael Carter, who has allowed the third-most receptions (43) and targets (63) in slot coverage this season. And while Jones has been scoring the touchdowns lately, Kirk still ranks 14th in the league in red zone targets with 24. I have Kirk as a high-end WR3 this week.

Tight End

As expected, Evan Engram didn’t post an encore performance from Week 14, but he was still solid, catching eight passes for 62 yards. He was targeted 10 times, giving him double-digit targets in each of the last two games. Jacksonville has been extremely pass-happy as of late, which has led to all three main Jacksonville pass-catchers seeing healthy target totals but per usual, you know what you are going to get from Engram: an 80-85% snap share and all the routes, as Engram ranks third among all tight ends in routes run. The Jets failed to allow a tight end touchdown through Week 13 but have now allowed a tight end to score against them in consecutive weeks. 

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers

Total: 44, DET -2.5
Pace: CAR: 28.26 sec/snap (20th), DET: 27.3 sec/snap (14th)

Key news: How many touches will D’Andre Swift get this week?

Panthers

Quarterback

Once again, the Carolina Panthers established the hell out of the run last week. However, unlike Weeks 12 and 14, it didn’t help them to a win. Sam Darnold attempted just 23 passes, giving him an average of 22 per game in his three starts. During that stretch of games, the Panthers are sporting the league’s highest rush rate in neutral gamescripts (58.1%), which is limiting Darnold’s already low ceiling. And despite having zero success running the football, Carolina didn’t abandon the run last week, though the Steelers did dominate time of possession during that game. It is possible that the Panthers struggle again against this suddenly top-tier Detroit run defense and if they have to throw, Darnold could be productive against a Lions defense that is surrendering the most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season (22.9). 

Running Back

D’Onta Foreman really struggled last week, rushing for a whopping nine yards on 10 carries. The Steelers had a tremendous defensive game plan, as they stacked the box against the Panthers, knowing they wanted to run the football, especially after what they did to Seattle’s run defense the week before. Foreman saw stacked boxes on 50% of his carries and on the season, he has seen stacked boxes on 37.6% of his rushing attempts, the second-highest rate in the league. Foreman continues to cede work to Chuba Hubbard, who played all seven third downs this past weekend, as well as all four snaps in the two-minute drill. As a result, Hubbard logged 63% of the offensive snaps, compared to just 30% for Foreman. Now Foreman has to face a red-hot Detroit run defense that has completely turned the corner over the last seven weeks. We highlighted it last week, but it warrants a second look, because many may still believe this is a great matchup for the Carolina rushing attack. Spoiler alert: It isn’t. With zero usage in the passing game, Foreman is a standard league flex play, while Hubbard is a viable flex play if you are hurting in PPR formats.

Lions Run Defense Improvements

Wide Receiver

Despite seeing limited volume last week, DJ Moore made the most of it, catching 5-of-6 targets for 73 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers. With Carolina running the football at one of the highest rates in football, Moore suddenly projects very similarly to Drake London in Atlanta — the clear top target in a low-volume passing offense. Moore hasn’t seen more than six targets in a game since Week 8, though he continues to dominate the market share for the Panthers. His 27% target share ranks ninth in the NFL, while seeing over 50% of Carolina’s air yards on the year. He gets a favorable Week 16 matchup against a Lions defense that is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. And over the last three weeks, 83.6% of the yardage and 83.3% of the touchdowns scored against Detroit have come via the pass, the second- and third-highest rates in the league during that span. 

Tight End

You should not be starting Tommy Tremble or Ian Thomas in the semifinals of your fantasy seasons. 

Lions

Quarterback

Jared Goff didn’t play poorly last week, but his home/road splits continue to be a thing. Granted it was against a tough Jets defense, but Goff now has three touchdown passes and four interceptions in six road games this season, averaging around 10 fantasy points per game in the split. In eight games at Ford Field, however, Goff has 20 touchdowns to just three interceptions, while averaging 277 passing yards, 2.5 passing touchdowns and 20.7 fantasy points per game. Goff stays on the road this week, facing the Panthers in Carolina. The Panthers are allowing the ninth-fewest yards per pass attempt this season (6.7), as well as the fifth-fewest yards per completion (10.2). 50% of the touchdowns scored against Carolina this season have come through the air, the fifth-lowest rate in football, while the Panthers are allowing 1.1 passing touchdowns per game at home, the eighth fewest in football. Goff is a high-end QB2 for me this week.

Running Back

OK, it’s time to play everyone’s favorite game entitled “How much did D’Andre Swift play this week?” Swift’s usage and playing time have been all over the place this season, especially lately. Sunday, Swift played just 41% of the offensive snaps for Detroit, touching the ball 13 times for 75 yards. He ran a route on 17-of-38 dropbacks (45%) but continued to cede third-down work to Justin Jackson, who logged about 31% of the snaps. Swift saw nine targets against a Jets defense that funnels passes to the short areas of the field and likely settles into 10-12 touches most weeks. Carolina just allowed rushing touchdowns to both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren last week and are now surrendering 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game on the year, tied for the seventh most in football. That could bode well for Jamaal Williams. You obviously need him to get into the end zone, but at least he continues to get opportunities to do so. Williams still leads the NFL in carries from inside the 5-yard line with 26. He’s a touchdown-or-bust flex, especially considering he hasn’t caught a pass in seven weeks now. 

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown had a solid game last week, showcasing his strong floor. He caught seven passes for 76 yards against a tough Jets defense, seeing 10 targets. St. Brown still ranks second in the league in target per route run rate (31%), while also ranking top-seven in first-read targets on the season. He’s an obvious must-start wide receiver, despite a tough matchup. The good news is that he should avoid Jaycee Horn for most of this game, who has been stellar this season. D.J. Chark will see more attention from Horn, who is allowing a reception every 17.3 coverage snaps this season, the fourth-best rate in football. He is also allowing just 0.11 fantasy points per coverage route to go along with a 55% catch rate in coverage, making Chark an avoid for me, especially with the Lions on the road. 

Tight End

Brock Wright scored the long touchdown and led the Lions tight ends in snaps last week. However, he finished with just eight pass routes to Shane Zylstra’s 17. Do not start a Detroit tight end this week.

Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears

Total: 40, BUF -9
Pace: CHI: 28.93 sec/snap (26th), BUF: 26.52 sec/snap (5th)

Key news: Khalil Herbert has been activated from injured reserve.

Bears

Quarterback

For some reason, I saw plenty of questions regarding whether Justin Fields should be started in fantasy against a tough Philadelphia defense last week. I cannot stress this enough — you always start Justin Fields. His combination of floor and ceiling is too high. Fields passed for 152 yards and a pair of scores Sunday and rushed for 95 yards on 15 carries. Fields has reached the 1,000-rushing-yard mark for the season, becoming the third quarterback in NFL history to accomplish the feat. The sophomore quarterback is the entire Chicago offense, as Fields is averaging an insane 11.0 rushing attempts, 1.9 red zone carries and 77 rushing yards per game this season, while 79 of his 143 total rushing attempts have been designed (55.2%). Fields has finished as a top-seven fantasy signal caller in each of his last seven games but now faces a Buffalo defense that is surrendering the sixth-fewest fantasy points (13.7) and 10th-fewest rushing yards per game (15.3) to opposing quarterbacks. Still, Fields has scored at least 21 fantasy points in each of his last seven games and remains a must-start quarterback.

Running Back

David Montgomery is coming off a very productive game against the Eagles, rushing for 53 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, adding three receptions for 38 yards and an additional score. He’s now found the end zone in three of his last four games, averaging just under 18 touches per game during that stretch. Khalil Herbert will return from injury this week, which could limit Montgomery’s overall ceiling, especially for touches. However, in eight full games alongside Herbert this season, Montgomery is still averaging a respectable 15.8 touches per game. And with this being Herbert’s first game back from a hip injury, it’s possible he’s limited, which should keep Montgomery in the 15-18-touch range. This matchup is interesting as the Bills were just gashed for 136 yards on 17 carries by Raheem Mostert last week. And since Week 10, Buffalo is allowing over four yards per carry, as they continue to struggle to defend outside zone runs, which is mostly where Mostert’s success came from. This could bode well for Montgomery, as 109 of his 172 rushing attempts this season have come off outside zone (63.3%). And the Bills are also vulnerable to outside runs to the left side, surrendering 5.8 yards per attempt to that side of the field, eighth most in the league. Meanwhile, since Week 9, Buffalo is allowing 4.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs and about five more rushing fantasy points per game over the last seven weeks compared to Weeks 1-8. Montgomery is a top-20 running back this week, though it will be interesting to see how involved Herbert is in his first game back.

Wide Receiver

Darnell Mooney is out for the season, Chase Claypool didn’t play Sunday. and now Equanimeous St. Brown is in the concussion protocol. That left the Bears with Byron Pringle, Dante Pettis and rookie Velus Jones as the team’s top three wide receivers. If Chicago actually threw the ball more than 20 times per game, there could be some potential streaming appeal here, but in a tough matchup and in a low volume passing offense, Chicago wideouts should not be started, especially in the fantasy semifinals. 

Tight End

The only pass-catcher from the Bears who can even be remotely trusted is tight end Cole Kmet, who led the team with five targets last week. He caught four passes for 25 yards and with Chicago so banged up at wide receiver, the Bears have been scheming more targets for Kmet, who ranks third among tight ends in screen targets over the last two weeks. There is still some touchdown equity here, as Kmet has seen 31.3% of Chicago’s targets inside the 10-yard line this season, the 14th-highest rate in all of football. The matchup, however, is brutal, as the Bills are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (8.9), while they are the only team in football that has yet to allow a tight end to score a touchdown. Kmet is a high-end TE2/low-end TE1. 

Bills

Quarterback

After a few slightly underwhelming showings, Josh Allen had a vintage performance against Miami Saturday, passing for 304 yards and four touchdowns and rushing for 77 yards on 10 attempts. He continued his stellar play against his division rival and now faces a struggling Chicago defense. Weather is once again a possible concern here, as we could see sustained winds of 25-30 mph, which certainly could impact the deep passing game. Of course, Allen is doing it all, and whether the winds are 5 mph or 50, you aren’t benching him. The Bears are surrendering the eighth-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (23.6) and since Week 10, Chicago is allowing 0.246 EPA per dropback, the second-worst mark in football. And since Week 9, four quarterbacks have finished as top-12 fantasy signal callers against the Bears, making this an outstanding spot for Allen. Chicago has been awful at defending the deep pass, which could be saved by mother nature. But if the wind isn’t too overpowering, Allen could take advantage, as the Bears are allowing the third-most yards per completion (11.9) and third-most yards per pass attempt (7.8). 

Running Back

Against a strong run defense, the Bills wisely relied on the right arm of Allen, as they sported a near 60% pass rate. As a result, Devin Singletary finished the game with just 13 carries for 42 yards, most of which came on the final drive of the game, though he still had a solid 17 touches. Singletary played 60% of the snaps and hasn’t reached the 70% mark in each of the last three weeks, as James Cook continues to hover around the 40% mark. This could easily be a game where Buffalo leans more on the rushing attack, especially if the winds are bad, while the Bears struggle to defend the run. Chicago is coughing up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season, while no team has allowed more total rushing touchdowns (24). Singletary should see 12 or 13 touches, though it is tough to project if he’ll see much more on a weekly basis, which keeps him in flex territory. 

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs is coming off a second consecutive quiet game, catching five passes for 60 yards. He now hasn’t reached the century mark in five consecutive games, while failing to see double-digit targets in three consecutive contests. The good news, however, is that the Bears just allowed both Philadelphia wide receivers to eclipse the 100-yard mark last week and since Week 9, Chicago is surrendering a gaudy 2.14 fantasy points per target to opposing wide receivers, good for the second most in football during that span. And in that same stretch, Chicago is also coughing up 10.7 yards per target to the position, easily the worst mark in the league. Diggs will see coverage from Jaylon Jones, who is allowing 0.23 fantasy points per coverage route and a catch rate north of 70%. Unless the Bears have Jaylon Johnson shadow Diggs, though Johnson has only shadowed twice all season long. You don’t love the potential weather for passing games but strictly based on the matchup, this should be a bounceback spot for Diggs this weekend.

High wind speeds tend to limit deep passing games, which could be very bad for Gabe Davis, who ranks 20th in yards per target (9.7), sixth in yards per reception (17.9) and first in yards before the catch per reception (14.5). We know that Davis is a volatile WR3 each week, but again, if the winds aren’t out of control, this is an outstanding spot for him. The Bears are surrendering the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.8) and third-most yards per completion (11.9), as well as the highest completion percentage on passes 20 yards or more down the field. Davis is a high-ceiling, low-floor WR3 regardless, but if the weather is bad, he becomes even more volatile than usual.

Tight End

As a Bills fan, it’s terrific to see Dawson Knox more involved over the past two weeks. During that span, Knox has caught 10-of-15 targets for 139 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Bills are utilizing Knox more in the short passing game, also targeting him plenty when Buffalo passes out of 21 personnel, which they do better than any team in football this season. I still struggle to fully believe this role from Knox will continue the rest of the way, it would make sense for Buffalo, who can be a bit too reliant on the greatness of Allen and Diggs at times. You do love to see Knox running plenty of routes, sporting a route participation of 82%, 94% and 89% over the last three weeks. Consider Knox a low-end TE1 now that he is gaining momentum.

Atlanta Falcons @ Baltimore Ravens

Total: 37.5, BAL -7.5
Pace: BAL: 29.8 sec/snap (32nd), ATL: 29.13 sec/snap (27th)

Key news: Lamar Jackson still isn’t practicing for the Ravens.

Ravens

Quarterback

Tyler Huntley is coming off a brutal game Saturday, completing 17-of-30 passes for 138 scoreless yards and an interception. Baltimore’s offense continues to struggle, though a home matchup with a vulnerable Atlanta defense could be the cure. Lamar Jackson continues to recover from a PCL sprain and is in danger of missing his third consecutive game. Huntley would be a low-end QB2 in superflex leagues if he draws the start, though this would certainly be the best spot he’s had. The Falcons rank last in all of football with a 15% pressure rate, while allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. 

Running Back

For the second consecutive week, J.K. Dobbins has looked really good last week. He built upon his Week 14 outing with a great game in Week 15 against the Browns, rushing for 125 yards on just 13 carries. He’s now reached the 120-yard mark in both games since returning from injury, though he played under 40% of the offensive snaps. We did see Kenyan Drake as a healthy scratch this game, while Justice Hill operated as the clear pass-catching running back, playing 7-of-10 third downs and 10-of-13 snaps in the two-minute drill. Gus Edwards played both snaps in short-yardage situations — Baltimore didn’t reach the goal line in this game, but we did see Dobbins get the goal-line work two weeks ago. Edwards also saw his carries drop from 13 to seven, though the Ravens offense also ran fewer plays this past weekend. Still, Dobbins is the 1A in a run-heavy offense, which should lead to 15 carries per game. He gets a good matchup against a Falcons defense that is allowing 3.03 yards before contact per rush since Week 9, the fourth most in the league. That bodes well for Dobbins, who is averaging a healthy 3.4 yards before contact per rush, which would rank second among all running backs if he had enough carries to qualify. Dobbins settles in as a mid-range RB2 who sees a downgrade in full PPR formats.

Wide Receiver

With Devin Duvernay (foot) on injured reserve, the Ravens will rely on Demarcus Robinson, DeSean Jackson and James Proche at wide receiver. We have seen Robinson post some strong fantasy totals at times this season and this matchup is ideal, as the Falcons are coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. However, with this being the semifinals of the fantasy playoffs, it is difficult to rely on Robinson outside of deeper formats. 

Tight End

The tough times continue for Mark Andrews, who has now failed to reach the 65-yard mark or find the end zone since Week 6. And since Week 8, Andrews is averaging just 3.6 receptions, 6.6 targets, 39 receiving yards and 7.8 PPR points per game. If the tight end position had any depth whatsoever, you could legitimately make an argument to bench Andrews right now. There just aren’t really any other directions to go. The Falcons just allowed a pair of touchdowns to Juwan Johnson last week and over the course of the season, they are surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points (15.0), fourth-most receptions (5.4), third-most targets (7.9) and sixth-most receiving yards (58.9) per game to opposing tight ends. 

Falcons

Quarterback

Desmond Ridder made his first career start last week, completing 13-of-26 passes for just 97 yards and zero touchdowns. He added 38 rushing yards on six attempts and Atlanta’s offense was exactly the same, despite the change at quarterback. Per usual, we saw a ton of play-action, as Ridder sported a 44.4% dropback rate of play-action. Interestingly enough, his play-action dropback rate was identical to Marcus Mariota’s play-action dropback rate for the entire season. The Ravens have only allowed three touchdown passes off play-action this season, while coughing up the eighth-lowest passing touchdown rate (37%). The rookie should not be on your fantasy radar. At least not yet.

Running Back

Rookie running back Tyler Allgeier is coming off a career game against the Saints, rushing for 139 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. Allgeier forced six missed tackles in the game, while averaging 5.8 yards after contact per attempt. While he usually lives in the 10- to 12-touch range, Allgeier saw 18 touches on Sunday, while logging 49% of the snaps. Cordarrelle Patterson, meanwhile, played 50% of the snaps, touching the ball 15 times. He logged more snaps on early downs, though Allgeier handled all four snaps in short-yardage situations, four on third down and 10 in the two-minute drill. Allgeier and Patterson split the four goal line snaps and while this remains a 50/50 split, the Falcons are running the ball so much that both players remain viable flex plays in fantasy. Unfortunately, this is a brutal matchup, as the Ravens are surrendering just 3.1 yards per carry, 1.03 yards before contact per rush and 6.7 rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs since Week 9. 

Wide Receiver

In his first career start, Ridder wasted zero time targeting Atlanta’s top target. Drake London caught seven passes for 70 yards on a team-high 11 targets last week, good for a 42% target share. A high target share is nothing new for London, who ranks third in football at 29.3% and is being targeted on about 27% of his routes during his rookie season. London now has consecutive games with double-digit targets and at least 70 yards and on the season, he has seen 35.3% of Atlanta’s red zone targets, the third-highest rate in football. If the Falcons weren’t 31st in neutral-script passing rate (43.4%), London would likely be an every-week low-end WR2. But in this offense, London is a volatile WR3 against a Ravens defense that does allow the highest completion rate in football on passes 20 yards or more down the field (59.5%).

Tight End

No thank you.

Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 48.5, KC -9.5
Pace: KC: 27.08 sec/snap (12th), SEA: 27.21 sec/snap (13th)

Key news: Tyler Lockett will miss this game with a broken finger.

Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes absolutely carried Kansas City to a win last week, completing 36-of-41 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 33 rushing yards and a fourth touchdown, completing an insane 20 consecutive passes to finish the game. 300 yards seems to be an absolute lock for Mahomes at this point, as the MVP favorite has reached the 300-yard mark in eight of his last nine contests. Mahomes has finished as a top-six fantasy signal caller in nine of his last 10 games and should make it nine of his last 10 against a vulnerable Seattle defense. The Seahawks have looked solid against the pass lately, but they have faced John Wolford, Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy over the last three weeks. On the season, Seattle is surrendering the eighth-highest passing touchdown rate (4.7%), while sporting the ninth-lowest pressure rate in the league (19.5%). 

Running Back

After all the discussion surrounding the Kansas City Chiefs during the offseason, it turns out Jerick McKinnon is not only the best running back from this offense, but a fantasy league-winner. After catching seven passes for 112 yards and two scores in Week 14, McKinnon stayed hot this past weekend, rushing for 52 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries, while adding eight receptions for 70 yards and a second score. His 62% snap share was tied for the highest mark of the season, which was aided by an early second quarter fumble by Isiah Pacheco, which led to him sitting out the remainder of the first half. Pacheco started the second half and still led the way with 15 carries for 86 yards. However, McKinnon, per usual, dominated the passing downs, logging 8-of-9 third downs, but he also played all four snaps at the goal line against the Texans. He’s been playing a ton when Kansas City has been in scoring position, as he leads all running backs in red zone targets since Week 10 with eight and this past weekend, McKinnon played nearly 90% of the snaps when the Chiefs were in the red zone. McKinnon has been targeted on over 19% of his routes this season and over the last two weeks, has caught 15-of-17 targets for 182 yards and three touchdowns. He now faces a Seattle defense that is allowing the eighth-most receptions (5.5), sixth-most receiving yards (43.4) and second-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the season. McKinnon is a low-end RB2 in PPR formats.

Pacheco, meanwhile, is still averaging a healthy 17 touches per game since Week 10. And while McKinnon has played plenty of snaps in scoring position, Pacheco still ranks sixth among all running backs in red zone carries with 18. This is an outstanding matchup for Pacheco, too, as Seattle is allowing 161.1 rushing yards per game this season (second most) and since Week 9, the Seahawks are coughing up 23.3 rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, the most in the league during that span. As a home favorite in cold weather, 15-18 carries should once again be on tap for Pacheco, while anything he adds in the passing game is a bonus. Both Kansas City running backs are fantastic starts in Week 16.

RBs vs. Seattle since Week 10

Wide Receiver

With Mahomes seemingly completing a million passes last week, JuJu Smith-Schuster benefited, catching all 10 of his targets for 88 yards. He did lose a fumble, but Smith-Schuster has now seen 10 and 11 targets over the last two weeks and has seen at least eight targets in eight of his 12 full games over the course of the season. JuJu continues to play out of the slot, lining up there over 41% of the time, which is notable considering Seattle’s secondary has been better at defending the perimeter than the slot this season. Mecole Hardman, who hasn’t played since Week 9, could return this week, but Smith-Schuster has solidified himself as at least a high-end WR3. Hardman, meanwhile, was gaining steam before suffering his abdomen injury, scoring five total touchdowns Weeks 6-9, while ranking fourth in all of football in screen targets during that span. We’ll see what his role looks like if he is active but against a Seattle defense that is surrendering the seventh-most yards after the catch in football (1,739), Hardman is an interesting desperation flex play here.

Tight End

If you are facing Travis Kelce this week, it could be a long weekend. But hey, at least it is Christmas. Kelce is obviously always a candidate to shift an entire fantasy matchup, but especially this week. He faces a Seattle defense just was just torched by George Kittle to the tune of 93 yards and a pair of touchdowns on Thursday. And over the course of the season, the Seahawks are surrendering the second-most fantasy points (16.9), third-most receiving yards (65.6) and fifth-most touchdowns (0.57) per game to opposing tight ends. Kelce has either 90 yards or a touchdown in 11 games this year and should crush this weekend, especially if Jordyn Brooks can’t play for Seattle.

Seahawks

Quarterback

Geno Smith is coming off a tough game in Week 15, passing for 238 yards with one touchdown. Of course, it was against the elite San Francisco defense and Smith has still been great this season, tossing multiple touchdown passes in seven of his last eight games and 11 of 14 overall. Not having Tyler Lockett definitely hurts Smith, but he is still a back-end QB1 against the Chiefs. Kansas City is surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers on the year (19.8), while they are also allowing 2.14 passing touchdowns per game, the most in all of football. 68.3% of the yardage and 78.9% of the touchdowns scored against the Chiefs this season have come via the pass, the eighth highest and highest rates in the league, respectively. With Kansas City also coughing up the eighth-most points per drive (2.14), Smith sets up as a strong play this weekend.

Running Back

Kenneth Walker returned from an ankle injury last week, rushing for 47 yards on 12 carries, while adding four receptions for 32 yards. The efficiency was poor, which is expected against the best run defense in football, but Walker logged 75% of the snaps and handled 16 of 21 running back touches. Unfortunately, Walker is back on the injury report with the ankle and is apparently not a guarantee to play this weekend. If Walker is active, you are starting him as a mid-range RB2. However, if he is out, Travis Homer could become a lot more interesting. Homer played over 90% of the snaps with both Walker and DeeJay Dallas out in Week 14, though he did basically nothing. However, as the clear pass-catching back on this team, Homer could see plenty of work, especially if the Seahawks fall behind, and especially with Lockett sidelined. The Chiefs remain an elite matchup for running backs in the passing game, as they are coughing up the most receptions (6.5), third-most targets (7.9) and second-most receiving yards per game (48.8) to opposing backfields. Keep an eye on this situation as the week rolls along.

Wide Receiver

With Tyler Lockett sidelined, DK Metcalf could simply see all of the targets. Metcalf has seen at least eight targets in each of his last five games, averaging a healthy 10.2 targets per game during that span. We know that Metcalf is always going to dominate the high value targets, as he ranks first in all of football with 18 end zone targets. Meanwhile, Metcalf has seen 40.7% of Seattle’s red zone targets and 40.9% of the team’s targets from inside the 10-yard line, good for the highest and second-highest rates in the league. That bodes well for him against a Kansas City defense that is allowing opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 68.8% of red zone trips this season, the second-worst rate in football. Metcalf lines up on the left side of the field 62% of the time, which will result in primary coverage from Joshua Williams, who is allowing a gaudy 0.39 fantasy points per coverage route, largely due to the six touchdowns he has allowed in coverage. Metcalf is a top-15 wide receiver like usual, but his ceiling and floor are both likely higher in this matchup and with Lockett out.

Marquise Goodwin is now a lot more fantasy relevant, too. For teams that are hurting at WR3 or flex, the speedster becomes a viable play, especially in this matchup. Goodwin has played in the slot around 55% of the time on the year but likely moves to the perimeter more in Lockett’s absence. However, if he primarily stays in the slot, the matchup is more favorable, as L’Jarius Sneed is allowing 0.27 fantasy points per coverage route this season, while also coughing up the third-most receptions (43), eighth-most receiving yards (358) and fifth-most targets (55) in slot coverage. 

Tight End

Noah Fant found the end zone last week, catching five passes for 32 yards in the process. He is dealing with a knee injury, however, so his status should be monitored, especially with Lockett already out. There is a chance the tight ends are more involved in Lockett’s absence, making Fant an intriguing tight end streaming option if he is active. But if he is out, Will Dissly becomes a really strong play. Seattle should be throwing quite a bit in this game and the Chiefs just surrendered three catches for 22 yards and a touchdown to Jordan Akins last week.

New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns

Total: 32.5, CLE -2.5
Pace: CLE: 28.35 sec/snap (21st), NO: 28.2 sec/snap (22nd)

Key news: There will be wind gusts of up to 30 mph in this game.

Browns

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson has started three games this season but hasn’t offered strong fantasy numbers. During that three-week stretch, Watson is averaging just 0.35 fantasy points per dropback, 24th among all signal callers. Cleveland talked about wanting Watson to throw the ball down the field more, though that might be difficult this weekend given the weather in Cleveland. This game is featuring a total of under 33 points, which is one of the lowest I have seen in a long time, so clearly Vegas believes the weather and wind will have an impact. The Saints are only pressuring opposing passers 17.1% of the time this season, the fourth-lowest rate in the league, but Watson remains a QB2.

Running Back

Nick Chubb carried the ball 21 times last week, his most in a game since Week 12, totaling 99 yards. He has only scored one touchdown since Week 11 and has now missed the last two practice sessions with a foot injury. Cleveland is still optimistic he will play Saturday, but this is something we need to keep an eye on. If he is inactive, Kareem Hunt would become a viable start for the first time in weeks. In five games with Chubb out of the lineup since 2020, Hunt is averaging 15.8 carries, 2.6 receptions and just over 13 fantasy points per game. The Saints, meanwhile, just allowed over 100 yards and a touchdown to Tyler Allgeier last week, while Cordarrelle Patterson also found the end zone. This game projects to have a ton of rushing attempts so expect the running backs to be very busy.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper hasn’t quite lived up to the expectations since Watson debuted. In three games alongside Watson, the veteran wideout is averaging just 7.3 targets, 3.3 receptions, 46.6 receiving yards and eight PPR points per game. And in the rest of his games, Cooper is averaging 8.4 targets, 5.1 receptions, 72 receiving yards and 16 fantasy points per contest. I am honestly tempering expectations on all players in the passing game in this spot. The wind is expected to be that impactful and Cooper hasn’t exactly been great over his last three games to start. Donovan Peoples-Jones found the end zone last week and has been more productive with Watson under center, averaging 6.3 targets, 5.0 receptions, 63 yards and 13.3 fantasy points per game over his last three contests. 25% of his targets with Watson under center have come 20-plus yards down the field, which is great when you aren’t playing in 30 mph winds. Both Cooper and Peoples-Jones are very risky WR3 plays given the circumstances in Cleveland.

Tight End

Like many players in that Cleveland and Baltimore game, David Njoku underwhelmed, catching just three passes for 28 yards. He almost scored a touchdown two different times but more importantly played over 90% of the snaps for the second consecutive game, while running a route on 24-of-33 dropbacks. The Saints have been really good against tight ends this season, surrendering the third-fewest fantasy points (8.0), fifth-fewest receptions (3.8) and third-fewest receiving yards per game (33.1) to the position, though they have not faced the strongest tight ends this year. 

Saints

Quarterback

If you streamed Andy Dalton against a weak Falcons defense last week, you were rewarded with two touchdowns and not much else. The Saints simply weren’t forced to throw the ball, as Dalton attempted just 17 passes. Dalton hasn’t showcased a ceiling this season and in the awful weather in Cleveland this weekend, the veteran signal caller is not a recommended fantasy starter.

Running Back

I fully expected last week to be the breakout game for Alvin Kamara, and it didn’t quite happen. Even with Mark Ingram out, Kamara still played just 62% of the offensive snaps for the Saints. The good news? He carried the ball 21 times for 91 yards. The bad news? He only caught two passes and for whatever reason on earth, David Johnson (yes, that David Johnson) ran more pass routes (10) than Kamara (9). What the hell are we doing here? Johnson also played one more third down than Kamara, which is extremely head-scratching. Kamara once again failed to find the end zone — he’s now gone six consecutive games without a touchdown. The Saints didn’t get inside the 5-yard line, as their three touchdowns all came from 10-plus yards out. As a result, Kamara still ranks outside the top-40 running backs in carries inside the 5-yard line (2). With the weather forecast looking the way it is, Kamara should see 20-plus touches with ease, and this is definitely a favorable matchup to run the football. Cleveland is surrendering 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game (fifth most) and since Week 9, they are coughing up 3.24 yards before contact per rush and 6.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs. 14.4% of the runs against the Browns this season have gained 10 or more yards, the fourth-highest rate in football. Kamara remains a top-15 running back for me, but his upside isn’t anywhere close to what it once was.

Wide Receiver

Chris Olave didn’t have to do much last week. He caught just three passes, taking them for 53 yards. He is dealing with a hamstring issue that has held him out of practice. If he can’t play, Rashid Shaheed, who is already coming on, would see an even larger role. Shaheed led the Saints wideouts in snap share (71%) and routes run (20) last week, catching three passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. When the Saints do throw the ball in this game, it could be quick passes to Shaheed, who has showcased the ability to score on any play, and it appears he has passed Jarvis Landry as the WR2 for the Saints. If Olave suits up, he is a high-end WR3, while Shaheed is an exciting, though risky, flex play in PPR leagues.

Tight End

Juwan Johnson returned to the lineup last week and immediately made his presence felt. He caught a pair of touchdowns and led the team with six targets. Johnson’s role was a bit limited in his first game back, playing 51% of the snaps, while running a route on just over 60% of dropbacks. He now has seven touchdowns on the season, ranking seventh among tight ends in end zone targets (6) and ninth in red zone targets (14). Johnson remains on the TE1/TE2 borderline, while Taysom Hill is once again an intriguing desperation play at tight end. With Ingram out last week, Hill carried the ball seven times and if the Saints go even more run-heavy in the elements, he could legit flirt with 10 carries against one of the worst run defenses in all of football.

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings

Total: 48, MIN -4
Pace: MIN: 26.55 sec/snap (6th), NYG: 27.75 sec/snap (16th)

Key news: Vikings center Garrett Bradbury is dealing with a back injury.

Vikings

Quarterback

In the process of completing the greatest comeback in NFL history last week, Kirk Cousins passed for 460 yards, four touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. Because Minnesota’s defense has been so bad as of late, Cousins has attempted 41 and 54 passes over the last two weeks, eclipsing 400 passing yards in both contests. Now he faces a strong Giants defense that is still shorthanded in the secondary but can give you trouble with the pass rush. As always with a Wink Martindale defense, the Giants are blitzing. Like, a lot. In fact, no team blitzes more than the Giants (40.7%), which is very interesting in this spot. Cousins has struggled against the blitz this season, ranking 35th in completion rate (55.6%) and 38th in yards per attempt (5.6). The Giants also rank fourth in pressure rate at 24.5%, while Cousins has been under pressure on 37% of dropbacks, the seventh-highest rate in football. Cousins is also much more efficient against zone coverage than man coverage, which could be an issue against a man-heavy Giants defense. Cousins leads the NFL in completion percentage against zone coverage (77.4%) but ranks 16th against man coverage (60.3%). Cousins is a low-end QB1 here and projects better if the Giants force the Vikings to keep throwing. 

Running Back

Dalvin Cook was having a pretty quiet game until he ripped off a 64-yard screen pass for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. He lost a fumble for the second consecutive week but still dominated the Minnesota backfield, touching the ball 21 times to Alexander Mattison’s two. Cook has sported opportunity shares of 91%, 89%, 82% and 90% over the last four weeks and during that stretch, is averaging a strong 21.2 touches per game. He gets a strong matchup against the Giants this week, who have allowed five 100-yard games to running backs this season, and it would have been six if the Commanders didn’t go away from Brian Robinson last week. 17.9% of the runs against this Giants defense have gained 10 or more yards this season, the highest rate in all of football, while also allowing the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing backfields (122.1). 

Wide Receiver

After a slow start from the Vikings offense last week, Justin Jefferson eventually got going, ultimately finishing with 12 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown on 16 targets. It was Jefferson’s ninth 100-yard game of the season, and he’s sporting a 28% target share and 38% air yardage share on the year. He’ll look to keep it going against the man coverage-heavy Giants this week. According to Player Profiler, Jefferson leads all wideouts in routes run against man coverage with 215), while his target rate climbs by nearly three percent against man coverage. He also is tied for the most receptions against man coverage (31), while ranking second in targets (50) and sixth in yards per route run (3.30) against the defense. It turns out he is really good at football.

Adam Thielen found the end zone last week but once again underwhelmed in the yardage department. He finished the day with just 41 yards and has only reached the 70-yard mark once all year long. Thielen was the No. 3 wideout, as K.J. Osborn exploded for 10 receptions for 157 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 16 targets. It was clearly an outlier performance from Osborn, especially with Cousins attempting 54 passes, making him a very risky play this week. Thielen, meanwhile, remains a WR3, though I am tempering expectations, as Cousins, who already hyper targets Jefferson, does so even more when blitzed. Thielen’s target rate is also just 16.4% against man coverage this season compared to nearly 20% against zone. 

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson is an obvious must-start tight end. His floor has been so much higher since joining the Lions, and he has seen at least six targets in every game with his new team. Since being traded to Detroit, Hockenson also ranks second among all tight ends in both receptions (39), targets (54) and end zone targets (4). There is nothing wrong with this matchup, as the Giants are coughing up the 12th-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season (53.4).

Giants

Quarterback

Daniel Jones failed to score a touchdown Sunday night, his second game of the year without finding the end zone. Per usual, if you believe Jones is going to provide a lot of production with his legs, feel free to start him as a high-end QB2. And for the most part, he has, averaging 7.5 rushing attempts, 1.6 red zone carries and 41.6 rushing yards per game, all of which rank top-six among quarterbacks. This is a stellar matchup for Jones, as the Vikings have allowed over 400 yards of total offense in five of their last six games, while four of the last six quarterbacks to face this defense have passed for 300 yards. Since Week 10, the Vikings are allowing 0.155 EPA per dropback, the sixth-worst mark in the league, while allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game on the year (18.9). Minnesota is also vulnerable to explosive passing plays, especially off play-action, surrendering 14.07 yards per completion off the play type, the fourth-worst rate in the league, as well as the second-most yards per pass attempt (9.34). Jones, meanwhile, is fourth in football in play-action dropback rate (34.9%), throwing six touchdowns to one interception off the play type. With this game being played in the comfy confines of a warm dome, Jones might crack the top-12 this week. 

Running Back

Saquon Barkley looked great last week, rushing for 87 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against a tough Washington run defense, while adding five receptions for 33 yards on eight targets. Feeling much better last week (and not playing in a blowout), Barkley returned to his usual role, logging 86% of the snaps and sporting an opportunity share of 89%. He now gets a much friendlier matchup against a Vikings defense that is allowing opposing offenses to score points on 41.6% of drives this season, second worst in the league behind the Falcons. Barkley should see 22-25 touches against one of the worst defenses in all of football. Sounds like a recipe for success to me.

Wide Receiver

Darius Slayton has now had consecutive poor showings, though the volume returned last week, seeing seven targets. This could absolutely be a get-right spot for the veteran wideout, as Minnesota has arguably the most exploitable secondary in the league right now. The Vikings are surrendering the second-most yards per pass attempt (7.9) and third-most yards per completion (11.9). They are also allowing the eighth-highest completion percentage on deep passes (44.4%) to go along with the third-most passing yards (880) and fourth-most passing touchdowns (6) off the play type. That could bode well for Slayton, who ranks 11th among all wide receivers in yards before the catch per reception on the year (10.4). His individual matchup with Cameron Dantzler is pretty favorable, as he is surrendering 0.30 fantasy points per route this season. Slayton is an intriguing WR3 play this weekend, while Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins are only in play in the deepest of leagues. The matchup is elite for both players, as Minnesota slot defensive back has allowed the most yards after the catch in football this season (417) to go along with a 78% catch rate. Hodgins, meanwhile, lines up on the left side of the formation 48% of the time, which bodes well considering the Vikings are allowing the most targets (9.1), receptions (6.8), receiving yards (98.8) and fantasy points per game (18.8) to pass-catchers on the left side of the field.

Tight End

Daniel Bellinger saw four targets last week but only converted one of them. He still isn’t leaving the field, logging 98% of the snaps against Washington, but isn’t really on the fantasy radar.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots

Total: 41.5, CIN -3
Pace: NE: 28.53 sec/snap (23rd), CIN: 27.58 sec/snap (15th)

Key news: Damien Harris continues to work his way back from a thigh injury. 

Patriots

Quarterback

Mac Jones is coming off a game where he averaged 3.6 yards per pass attempt against the Raiders. He completed 13-of-31 passes for 112 yards and zero touchdowns … against the Raiders. That is just … wow. Now Jones, who already lacks any sort of ceiling, faces a Cincinnati defense that is allowing the fifth-lowest passing touchdown rate in football (3.1%), while Tom Brady became the first quarterback last week to reach the 300-yard mark against Cincinnati all season long. Jones has reached 300 passing yards twice this season and ranks 34th among all signal callers in fantasy points per dropback (0.34). Thanks, but no thanks.

Running Back

After missing practice last Wednesday and Thursday, Rhamondre Stevenson got in a limited session Friday last week and was ultimately active. It was a mystery as to how much he’d play, and while he didn’t “start” the game, Stevenson was undoubtedly the lead back, carrying the ball 19 times for 172 yards and a touchdown, while adding a pair of receptions. Stevenson logged 66% of the snaps, a number that likely rises this week if Damien Harris (thigh) remains sidelined. He kept his usual dominant role in the passing game last week, logging all six snaps in the two-minute drill and all 10 third-down snaps. The usage in the passing game wasn’t great last week but Jones also only completed 13 passes. Still, Stevenson ranks third among all running backs with a 17.8% target share over the course of the season. The Bengals are not an ideal matchup for running backs, as they are allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, but Stevenson’s role should remain massive, keeping him in the RB12-15 range.

Wide Receiver

I really don’t have much interest in this New England passing game. Jakobi Meyers returned last week, but his role as a high-floor WR3 has disappeared as of late. He is locked into 4-6 targets, but his ceiling is just so limited, especially in this offense. Cincinnati just struggled to defend both Chris Godwin and Russell Gage from the slot last week, but they were missing slot defensive back Mike Hilton, who is expected to be back in the lineup for this game. And even without Chidobe Awuzie, this Cincinnati secondary has been strong, while allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers from the slot (10.0). 

Tight End

As usual, Hunter Henry is a touchdown-or-bust tight end for fantasy football. He played 80% of the snaps and ran a route on 26-of-33 dropbacks last week (79%) but was only targeted twice. Cincinnati has only allowed three tight ends to find the end zone against them this season and after being a touchdown machine last season, Henry ranks just 22nd among tight ends in red zone targets in 2022 (9), while only seeing two targets from inside the five-yard line (32nd). He’s a touchdown-or-nothing tight end who doesn’t even really have as much touchdown potential as you might think. 

Bengals

Quarterback

Joe Burrow and the Bengals got off to a slow start last week, but Tampa Bay was in the giving mood this holiday season, gifting Cincinnati multiple turnovers, which helped the offense. Burrow ultimately finished with four touchdowns, though he wasn’t very efficient, throwing for 200 yards on 39 pass attempts. His 5.1 yards per pass was his lowest mark of the season but Burrow continues to post stellar fantasy totals, as he has scored multiple touchdowns in four of his last five games. The Patriots can be a tough defense — on the season, are surrendering the lowest completion percentage in football (59.4%), as well as the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. However, they have faced Zach Wilson twice, Sam Ehlinger, Jacoby Brissett, Mitch Trubisky, Colt McCoy and Jared Goff on the road without Amon-Ra St. Brown. Continue to start Burrow as a no-doubt QB1.

Running Back

In his second game back from a concussion, Joe Mixon saw an uptick in snaps last week but not a massive one, going from 58% of the snaps to 64%. Samaje Perine once again hovered around the 40% mark, touching the ball eight times. Mixon, meanwhile, recorded 16 touches, and it is fair to wonder if he is going to return to his 20-touch role to end the season. Regardless, this is a tough matchup, as the Patriots are allowing just 9% of runs against them to gain 10 or more yards, the fourth-lowest rate in football. Since Week 9, the Patriots are allowing just 1.46 yards before contact per rush, a top-five rate in the league during that span, while no team is allowing fewer rushing touchdowns per game over the course of the season (0.21). Mixon, meanwhile, has struggled with efficiency this season, ranking 33rd in yards per touch (4.7), while recording just 15 runs of 10 or more yards (24th) and five runs of 15 or more yards (34th). Mixon is still tough to get away from as a mid-range RB2, but I am tempering expectations.

Wide Receiver

Even with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd active last week, Ja’Marr Chase still dominated the targets. He was targeted 13 times, giving him a whopping 28 targets over the last two weeks. Chase wasn’t the most efficient, catching seven passes for just 60 yards, but he did score, making it two straight games with a touchdown. We know that Bill Belichick and the Patriots tend to try to slow down the opposing offense’s best player, which happened just last week when Davante Adams caught just four passes for 28 yards against New England. Still, Chase obviously belongs in all fantasy lineups, as does Tee Higgins, who fully played last week. He logged 80% of the snaps and ran a route on 40-of-42 dropbacks (95%), catching five passes for 33 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. 

Tight End

A calf injury has kept Hayden Hurst out of the lineup the last two games, but he could be on track to return this week. If he does, he projects as a risky TE2, simply due to the fact that the Bengals pass-catchers are healthy, and we don’t know if Hurst himself will be limited in his first game back. New England has quietly struggled against tight ends this season, coughing up the 11th-most fantasy points per game (12.5) to the position, as well as the second-most touchdowns (9).

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Total: 36, TEN -3
Pace: TEN: 29.56 sec/snap (29th), HOU: 28.5 sec/snap (24th)

Key news: Ryan Tannehill (ankle) is likely done for the rest of the season. Treylon Burks will return from a concussion this week.

Titans

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill left last week’s game with an ankle injury. Although he did return to finish the game, it is possible that the veteran signal caller won’t play again this season. If that is the case, rookie Malik Willis would take over at quarterback and start his third game of the season Sunday. Interestingly enough, his first career start came against the Texans in a game where the Titans ran the ball an insane 77.5% of the time. Willis attempted just 10 passes over the course of the entire game, rushing five times for 12 yards. I’d expect a similar game plan this time around, especially given Derrick Henry’s absurd track record against the Texans, which would limit any upside for Willis. The Texans have also only allowed three quarterbacks to finish inside the top-12 all season long. Houston has been playing tough as of late, which could force Willis to throw more than the first meeting, but I truly don’t know if he reaches 25 pass attempts in this game.

Running Back

Godspeed to anyone facing Derrick Henry this weekend.

Death, taxes and Henry absolutely crushing the Texans run defense. Henry rushed for 219 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries when these teams first met back in Week 8, giving him four consecutive games with not just 100 rushing yards against the Texans, but 200 rushing yards. It is reminiscent of T.Y. Hilton’s absurd success against the Texans during his time with the Colts. Regardless of the track record, Henry is obviously simply in a great spot this week, facing the worst run defense in football. The Texans are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields this season, and since Week 9, they are allowing 2.86 yards before contact per attempt. 43% of the yardage against the Texans has come on the ground, the second-highest rate in football, while 50% of the touchdowns have been via the run, also the second-highest rate. That sounds good to Henry and the Titans. 

Derrick Henry’s last four games vs. HOU

Wide Receiver

After missing the last two games, Treylon Burks is practicing in full and appears on track to return this weekend. Burks’ usage and playing time were on the rise before dealing with multiple injuries, as the Titans transitioned to playing more three-wide sets. However, it is tough to get too excited about him here in what should be an even more limited passing attack without Tannehill. The Texans have also done a good job against wide receivers this season, as just one wide receiver has finished inside the top-12 against them, and that came all the way back in Week 1. Burks has been efficient this season, ranking 12th among qualified wideouts in yards per route run (2.19) and fantasy points per snap (0.31), so there is always a chance he makes his day off one play. However, he projects as a volatile WR4/flex play, despite the immense talent.

Tight End

Chigoziem Okonkwo has really delivered over the last two weeks, catching 10-of-11 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown. Last week, Okonkwo logged a season-high 60% of the snaps, while running a route on 18-of-32 dropbacks (56%). Austin Hooper still ran 17 routes and played over 48% of the snaps, but Okonkwo is earning targets and touches when he is on the field. In fact, he is being targeted on over 26% of his routes over the last two weeks and over the course of the season, his 2.63 yards per route run still leads all qualified tight ends. I really hope his role doesn’t take a hit with Burks back, though it is possible the Titans continue to play him this much, especially since he saw an uptick in playing time in 11 personnel last week. If Tannehill was under center and the Titans had to throw in this game, Okonkwo would be a borderline TE1 for me, especially against a Texans team that is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends (12.6). However, I worry about the volume this week, which makes him more of a volatile, high-end TE2. 

Texans

Quarterback

Houston’s quarterback-by-committee was not as evident this past weekend, as Jeff Driskel only played 29% of the snaps. They tried to give him a few designed rushes, but it went nowhere. Davis Mills should play almost all of the game at quarterback against a leaky Tennessee secondary this weekend, though Mills failed to deliver in this matchup in Week 8, completing 17-of-29 passes for just 152 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The Titans defense was much healthier then, and as it stands now, Tennessee has allowed three straight quarterbacks to throw for at least 300 yards against them. Mills did just finish as the QB10 against the Chiefs last week, so it isn’t as if he can’t produce in a favorable matchup. Since Week 10, the Titans are allowing 0.169 EPA per dropback, the fifth-worst mark in the league during that span. You could do worse than Mills as a QB2 this week, especially if Houston’s pass-catchers are healthy.

Running Back

With Dameon Pierce sidelined last week, Rex Burkhead’s role didn’t change all that much. He played 19% of the snaps and once again operated as the passing downs running back, playing 10-of-11 third downs in the game. Dare Ogunbowale started the game and logged 43% of the snaps, carrying the ball eight times for 14 yards, while Royce Freeman was elevated from the practice squad. The veteran played 38% of the snaps and rushed 11 times for 51 yards. I typically avoid most running backs against the Titans, so I have zero issues avoiding a three-man backfield in one of the league’s worst offenses against Tennessee this weekend.

Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins remained sidelined last week, paving the way for more volume to head Chris Moore’s way. He finished with just four catches for 42 yards but saw nine targets, giving him 20 over the last two games. Cooks practiced in full Wednesday, putting him on track to play this weekend, but Collins (foot) still hasn’t practiced. A matchup against the Titans is fantastic for opposing wide receivers, as Tennessee is surrendering the most fantasy points per game to the position. And the Titans are also allowing 2.0 fantasy points per target to the wide receiver position, good for the most in all of football. As long as Collins is out, Moore will still be the top wide receiver from the Texans for me.

Tight End

Jordan Akins found the end zone last week and continues to run as the top tight end for the Texans, at least in terms of targets. He saw six targets last week and is on the streaming radar in deep leagues, as he faces a Tennessee defense that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points (14.8), third-most receptions (5.7) and most targets (8.4) per game to opposing tight ends this season. And if the Texans go back to getting blown out, Akins’ snaps and routes will likely climb.

Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers

Total: 38, SF -7
Pace: SF: 29.72 sec/snap (30th), WAS: 28.7 sec/snap (25th)

Key news: Chase Young has been removed from the injury report and will make his season debut.

49ers

Quarterback

Brock Purdy won his third consecutive game last week, throwing for 217 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle. Over his three full NFL games, Purdy is averaging 0.55 fantasy points per dropback, which would rank ninth in the league among qualified signal callers. (Interestingly enough, Jimmy Garoppolo averaged 0.53.) He has multiple touchdown passes in all three games, as Purdy continues to do what is asked of him in this offense. 334 of Purdy’s 678 passing yards this year have come after the catch (49.2%), which is exactly what we saw against Seattle last week. A matchup with the Commanders isn’t the greatest, as only the 49ers are allowing less EPA per play since Week 10 (-0.106). Meanwhile, the Commanders are allowing the second-fewest yards after the catch in football (1,257) but Purdy has done enough to warrant QB2 consideration.

Running Back

The Commanders’ run defense is very solid, but you are obviously starting Christian McCaffrey. After some concern about his role not being massive when he first joined the team, McCaffrey is now dominating the playing time for San Francisco. The injury to Elijah Mitchell has had much to do with it, but McCaffrey touched the ball 32 times last week, while logging 89% of the snaps. The only snaps he has essentially lost over the last two weeks have been due to blowout and Jordan Mason running the clock out. Washington has been tough against the run, but they did just give up over 100 total yards and a score to Saquon Barkley last week, who is in a similar role to McCaffrey.

Wide Receiver

With Deebo Samuel out last week, we didn’t see an uptick in production from Brandon Aiyuk, though I believe that was due to the matchup. The Seahawks have been very solid against perimeter wide receivers over the course of the season and Aiyuk still lined up out wide 74% of the time without Samuel Thursday. He finished the game with just two catches for 19 yards on four targets, as the matchup to attack was George Kittle against the Seahawks. I’d like to see San Francisco move Aiyuk around the formation more with Samuel out but it doesn’t appear to be in the cards. Aiyuk remains an upside WR3 against the Commanders.

Tight End

If George Kittle didn’t get it going against Seattle last week, I would have been worried. No Deebo and a top-three matchup for opposing tight ends, Kittle exploded for four receptions, 93 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Seahawks. We know Kittle has been pretty inconsistent in this offense, but Samuel’s absence should lead to more consistency, especially since the 49ers will continue to scheme targets for their Pro Bowl tight end. Washington has been good against tight ends this season, but Kittle remains a must-start player at the position.

Commanders

Quarterback

Taylor Heinicke posted yet another middling fantasy outing against the Giants last week, throwing for 249 yards and a touchdown, while losing two fumbles. Heinicke only has two finishes inside the top-12 since taking over at quarterback for Washington and it seems unlikely that it happens on the road against the best defense in football. San Francisco is surrendering the fewest points (1.3) and fourth-fewest yards (27.3) per drive this season, while opposing offenses are scoring points on just 24.5% of drives against the 49ers, easily the lowest rate in the NFL.

Running Back

Brian Robinson ran well last week, rushing for 89 yards on 12 carries, while adding an 18-yard reception. The rookie has now eclipsed 100 scrimmage yards in each of his last three games, though it came against the Giants (twice) and the Falcons. Now he faces the most frightening run defense in the league in San Francisco. No running back has even reached 60 rushing yards against the 49ers this season, while they are also allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Just 6.5% of the runs against this defense have gained 10 or more yards, the lowest rate in football. Robinson is still splitting playing time with Antonio Gibson, as he logged just 38% of the snaps last week, while Gibson played 60% of the snaps. If possible, I would look to avoid all Washington running backs this week, especially since Robinson doesn’t have usage in the passing game to fall back on.

Wide Receiver

If the Commanders aren’t going to find any success on the ground in this game, Terry McLaurin could be very busy. He caught six passes for 70 yards last week and has led Washington in targets in every game with Heinicke under center this season. 73.8% of the yardage against San Francisco this season has come via the pass, the second-highest rate in the league, while opposing offenses are sporting the second-highest passing play percentage against the 49ers (63.8%), so it is very possible (and probably wise) that Washington abandons the run in this game. I’d like to see McLaurin play more in the slot, specifically for this matchup, as the 49ers are surrendering the second-most receiving yards (69.6) and third-most fantasy points per game (14.5) to opposing receivers from the slot this season. That could bode well for Curtis Samuel, though Jahan Dotson has operated out of the slot nearly 40% of the time over the last two games. During that span, the rookie is running a route on almost 90% of dropbacks, though he likely needs a touchdown to get there, which has been the case all season long.

Tight End

Logan Thomas is not on my radar for the fantasy semifinals. He has four games with one or fewer receptions and faces Fred Warner and the 49ers, who are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends on the year (9.5). 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

Total: 47, DAL -5
Pace: DAL: 26.79 sec/snap (9th), PHI: 26.75 sec/snap (8th)

Key news: Gardner Minshew will start at QB for the Eagles.

Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott is coming off a major bounceback performance against Jacksonville, completing 23-of-30 passes for 256 yards, three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. Of course, the game-winning pick-six by the Jaguars was not at all Prescott’s fault, though he now has seven interceptions over his last four contests. He’ll host a Philadelphia pass defense that has allowed just two quarterbacks to finish as top-12 signal callers against them all year long, with both quarterbacks getting there with rushing production. Justin Fields rushed for 95 yards, while Daniel Jones rushed for 26 and a touchdown. The Eagles are allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.1) and second-fewest yards per completion (10.0) on the season. Prescott didn’t play when these teams last met in Week 6, but I still view him as a low-end QB1.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott found the end zone again last week, giving him a touchdown in each of his last seven games. Elliott has scored a total of nine touchdowns during that stretch and since returning to the lineup in Week 11, he ranks first in all of football with eight carries from inside the 5-yard line, while his 16 red zone carries also lead the league. The Cowboys continue to rely on the ground game, ranking seventh in the league in neutral script rush rate since Prescott’s return in Week 7 (49.3%). Dallas will keep running the football and the Eagles just allowed a pair of touchdowns to David Montgomery last week. We know the splits for this run defense with and without Jordan Davis are pretty significant, but the rookie defensive tackle has played less than 25% of the snaps in each of the last two weeks. Averaging a strong 17.8 touches per game over his last five outings, Elliott is a solid RB2 play.

Tony Pollard, meanwhile, is averaging 16.6 touches per game during that same span, though his usage in the passing game has been far more reliable. Pollard has caught 8-of-10 targets over the last two weeks and remains the home run threat from this offense. Almost 13% of the runs against the Eagles have gained 10 or more yards, the eighth-highest rate in the league, so they do allow explosive runs. 

Wide Receiver

The last time these teams played, CeeDee Lamb caught five passes for 68 yards, though that was with Cooper Rush under center. Lamb was fantastic last week, hauling in all seven of his targets for 126 yards. Because the Cowboys have been so run-heavy, Lamb has only seen double-digit targets in one of his last five games, though he continues to dominate the targets for the Cowboys. His 28.7% target share is the fifth-highest rate in the league this season, while his 31% target per route run rate is the third-highest rate in football. The Cowboys have been using Lamb all over the formation lately, including a ton of pre-snap motion, which tends to lead to more fantasy production. I’d like Lamb more if Jalen Hurts plays, as Dallas would be more likely to have to air it out, but Lamb is obviously starting in all formats this weekend.

Tight End

I absolutely loved Dalton Schultz last week, so naturally, it was Peyton Hendershot to find the end zone against Jacksonville. It was a disappointing day for Schultz, who caught just two passes for 15 yards. Still, he remains a must-start tight end, especially when you look around at the rest of the position. He’s still finished as a top-12 tight end in six of nine games with Prescott under center over the course of the season.

Eagles

Quarterback

With Jalen Hurts dealing with a shoulder sprain, Gardner Minshew will draw the start this weekend. Minshew started two games for the Eagles last year, averaging 214 passing yards and 17.1 fantasy points per game. Given how explosive this offense is, I’d rank Minshew perhaps the highest of the waiver wire signal callers, especially considering this game is in a dome and so many players are dealing with ugly weather this weekend. The Cowboys have been a bottom-10 pass defense over the last two weeks, as their secondary has been dealing with multiple key injuries. 

Running Back

It was a weird game for Miles Sanders last week, as he rushed for just 42 yards on only 11 carries. Sanders didn’t record his first touch until the 6:42 mark of the second quarter, as the Eagles went pass-heavy, also calling a ton of designed runs for Hurts. Hurts being out will impact Sanders in multiple ways. For starters, there is no doubt Sanders benefits from the presence of Hurts in terms of yards before contact, where he ranks second among all running backs this season (3.4). Meanwhile, Sanders has 25 runs this season where he isn’t even contacted by a defender, fifth among all running backs. Defenses will possibly defend this rushing attack differently if Minshew is under center. On the other hand, however, we could see an uptick in touchdown opportunities for Sanders if Hurts is sidelined. Hurts is second in all of football with 20 rushing attempts from inside the 5-yard line this season, scoring nine rushing touchdowns on those carries. That is important because Sanders has been relatively touchdown-or-bust this season, averaging just 7.9 points per game in contests he hasn’t found the end zone. This is a good matchup, however, as the Cowboys just allowed over 100 rushing yards to Travis Etienne last week. 14.3% of the runs against Dallas this season have gained 10 or more yards, the fifth-highest rate in the league, and I expect the Eagles to get back to running the football even without Hurts.

Wide Receiver

Even without Hurts, you are starting A.J. Brown. Yes, this matchup is tough, but Brown delivered back in Week 6, catching five passes for 67 yards and a touchdown. In that game, Trevon Diggs did shadow Brown on 62% of his routes, limiting him to one reception for 11 yards. The Cowboys have been very good against opposing top wide receivers over the course of the season, while really struggling against opposing WR2 options. Zay Jones just destroyed them for 109 yards and three scores last week, though I do worry about DeVonta Smith’s target share dropping with Dallas Goedert back this week. In five games without Goedert this season, Smith is averaging 8.4 targets, 84 receiving yards and 15.8 PPR points per game, but those numbers drop to 6.7 targets, 55 yards and 12.6 points per game in nine games alongside Goedert. Smith drops to a high-end WR3 for me with Goedert back and Minshew under center for the Eagles.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert was eligible to return last week but sat out. However, he was activated from injured reserve Tuesday and should play this weekend. If Goedert is in Philadelphia’s starting lineup, he is also in your fantasy football team’s starting lineup. He hasn’t played since Week 10 but don’t forget how efficient Goedert is. The talented tight end ranks second at his position in yards per route run (2.45), first in yards per target (10.5), seventh in yards per reception (12.7) and second in yards after the catch per reception (8.4).

Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 38.5, PIT -2.5
Pace: PIT: 28.24 sec/snap (19th), LV: 27.75 sec/snap (17th)

Key news: Kenny Pickett (concussion) is expected to clear the protocol and start Saturday night.

Steelers

Quarterback

Kenny Pickett missed last week’s game with a concussion but should be back in the lineup here. The rookie has a great matchup this week, facing a Raiders defense that is surrendering the seventh-most points (2.16) and yards (34.4) per drive on the season, as well as the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (18.2). Still, Pickett only has one game higher than QB15 and doesn’t present much upside for the fantasy semifinals.

Running Back

Najee Harris found the end zone last week, which once again saved his day. He carried the ball 24 times for 86 yards otherwise and was not targeted in the passing game. Jaylen Warren, meanwhile, carried the ball 11 times for 38 yards and a touchdown, continuing to take third-down snaps away from Harris. Warren’s presence has impacted the ceiling of Harris over the course of the season, and while his 11 carries were a season-high, it is worth noting that the Steelers offense was on the field quite a bit, while they were able to run the ball over 65% of the time. The Raiders were just torched by Rhamondre Stevenson last week and are now allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the season. Harris should be able to see 18-22 touches in this game, but his sudden drop in passing game usage keeps him in the lower end RB2 range for me.

Wide Receiver

He once again failed to find the end zone last week, but I thought Diontae Johnson played his best game of the season against the Panthers. Johnson caught all 10 of his targets for 98 yards, picking up multiple key third down conversions. Pickett being under center is actually pretty interesting for Johnson, as his splits are actually more favorable with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback. He had a 48% target share last week and over the course of the season, his target share is north of 30% with Trubisky under center. Johnson is also averaging 6.29 receptions, 58 receiving yards and 12.3 PPR points per game in seven games with Trubisky compared to 4.7 receptions, 47 yards and 9.4 points per game alongside Pickett. Over the course of his career, Trubisky has leaned towards throwing to the left side of the field, which is where Johnson has lined up 55% of the time in Trubisky’s five full starts this season. Johnson should still provide a solid floor with Pickett under center and who knows, maybe he’ll finally score a touchdown. 

George Pickens, meanwhile, projects higher with Pickett because he is more willing to throw the ball down the field and give his receivers chances to make plays in one-on-one coverage. However, the floor has been pretty low, as Pickens has fewer than four receptions in each of his last four games. The Raiders are allowing the fourth-highest completion percentage off deep passes this season (46.3%), as well as the eighth-most yards off deep passes (733), giving Pickens an opportunity here.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth cannot be 100% healthy. He played through a foot injury in Week 14, which limited him to just 57% of the snaps. And this past weekend, Freiermuth played 56% of the snaps, making it three consecutive games with less than 60% of the snaps. Freiermuth not only failed to catch a pass Sunday but didn’t even see a target. He continues to see less playing time in 11 personnel, but it is difficult to believe Freiermuth won’t be involved this week, as especially against a Raiders defense that is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points (13.0) per game to opposing tight ends.

Raiders

Quarterback

Derek Carr is coming off a strong game against the Patriots, throwing for 231 yards and three touchdowns. Outside of the head-scratching game against the Rams, Carr has been pretty good as of late, throwing multiple touchdowns in six of his last seven games. This is a really interesting spot, as Carr has struggled in cold weather games over the course of his career and it is expected to be freezing in Pittsburgh Saturday night, with wind playing a factor, too. Since T.J. Watt returned in Week 10, the Steelers rank 12th in EPA per play on defense, while quarterbacks have not posted strong fantasy totals against them. However, outside of Joe Burrow, Pittsburgh hasn’t faced many top tier quarterbacks (Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Tyler Huntley, Sam Darnold). Carr is a high-end QB2 for me this weekend, but we could see him have to throw here, as 68.6% of the yardage (sixth) and 75.7% of the touchdowns (second) allowed by Pittsburgh have come through the air this season.

Running Back

For the first time in six weeks, Josh Jacobs did not see 25 touches last game.

He saw 24.

That just illustrates the insane usage Jacobs has seen this season, as he leads the league with an 84% opportunity share on the year. The Steelers just absolutely shut down Carolina’s rushing attack last year, stacking the box most of the time. I don’t believe they will be able to use a similar approach this week, especially with the Raiders at full strength on offense. But make no mistake, this is a tough matchup for Jacobs. Just 8.8% of the runs against the Steelers this season have gained 10 or more yards, the third-lowest rate in the league, while Pittsburgh is allowing 10.5 rushing fantasy points per game to opposing backfields since Week 9, the ninth fewest during that span. Still, Jacobs is going to get 22-25 touches and remains a top-seven fantasy running back.

Wide Receiver

It was odd to see Davante Adams finish with just four catches for 28 yards last week, but perhaps the narrative of Bill Belichick slowing down an opposing offense’s top player strikes again. He was still targeted nine times and gets a great matchup against a Steelers secondary that has allowed 14 different wide receivers to either score a touchdown or gain at least 95 receiving yards against them this season. Pittsburgh is also allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the year, as well as 1.97 fantasy points per target to the position, good for the second-most in the league. The Steelers have allowed seven touchdown passes of 20 or more yards this season (second most). You are obviously starting Adams, while Hunter Renfrow remains an avoid for me. He simply hasn’t been a player worth starting in fantasy when he’s been on the field this season and although the Steelers do allow the eighth-most receiving yards per game to opposing slot wide receivers (59.9), Renfrow just doesn’t have a ceiling, while there really hasn’t been much of a floor either.

Tight End

Darren Waller returned last week, his first action since Week 5. As expected, he was limited, logging 49% of the snaps and running a route on 27-of-41 dropbacks (66%). Even if that usage doesn’t improve in his second game back, given his talent, that is enough to consider Waller a borderline must-start tight end. 

Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins

Total: 49.5, MIA -4
Pace: MIA: 27.93 sec/snap (18th), GB: 29.81 sec/snap (31st)

Key news: Jeff Wilson has been limited in practice with a hip injury.

Dolphins

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa bounced back a bit last week in Buffalo, passing for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Opposing defenses continue to force Tagovailoa to throw to the boundaries, which is something Mike McDaniel and company are going to have to adjust to. He faces a Green Bay defense that is blitzing 34.6% of the time this season, the second-highest rate in football, while Tua has six touchdown passes to zero interceptions against the blitz. He also leads the league in aDOT (11.8 yards) against the blitz, while ranking fourth in yards per pass attempt against the play type (9.9). Even with his struggles as of late, Tagovailoa remains a top-12 fantasy signal caller this week.

Running Back

With Jeff Wilson sidelined last week, Raheem Mostert drew the start at running back. He logged 76% of the snaps and handled 18 of 26 running back touches. The veteran looked fantastic, rushing for 136 yards on 17 carries, as the Dolphins really found success on outside zone runs against the Bills. We’ll see if Wilson (hip) is active this week, but even if he is, you’d have to believe Mostert will get the first crack at the starting job. Miami should honestly not abandon the run so quickly, as it probably cost them the game last week. They should be able to find similar success on the ground this week, as they face an atrocious Green Bay run defense that is allowing 2.36 yards before contact per rush since Week 9. Green Bay is also allowing 6.9 yards per attempt on outside right runs this season (third most), which is where Mostert and the Dolphins found most of their success on the ground last week. The Packers have also allowed the second-most rushing yards to that side of the field (319), making this a really good spot for Mostert, just as long as Miami stays with the run.

Wide Receiver

You are starting Tyreek Hill. He caught nine passes for 69 yards and a touchdown last week, and given how incredible he’s been this season, that would likely be considered a “down game” from Hill. He has 10 games with double-digit targets over the course of the season and leads the NFL in targets per route run at 34%. Green Bay’s defense has underwhelmed this season, while opposing top wideouts have found plenty of success against them. The Packers have allowed touchdowns to Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown since Week 7. Meanwhile, it was nice to see Jaylen Waddle get back on track last week, hauling in three passes for 114 yards and a touchdown. His target totals have not been as high or consistent as Hill, which is why he has been a bit up-and-down, but his upside on a per-play basis is still so high.

Tight End

Since Week 10, Mike Gesicki has three receptions for 36 yards. I rest my case. Gesicki is a talented player but has no role in this offense, which we saw coming all the way back in August.

Packers

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers didn’t have to do much Monday, completing 22-of-30 passes for 229 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Rodgers hasn’t shown much of a ceiling all year long, finishing outside of the top-12 fantasy signal callers in all but two weeks, while he’s yet to throw for 300 yards in a game this season. Miami’s defense is vulnerable to explosive plays because they blitz so much and play a lot of Cover-0, though overall, their defense has been a lot better at home. In Miami, the Dolphins are allowing just 4.8 yards per play, the third-lowest mark in football, but that number climbs to 6.0 when on the road, the fifth-highest mark. Meanwhile, only the 49ers are allowing fewer points per game at home than the Dolphins this season (15.3). This game could easily be one of the highest scoring of the week, which keeps Rodgers in the mid-range QB2 territory. 

Running Back

Both Green Bay running backs got it going last week. Aaron Jones carried the ball 17 times for 90 yards, while adding four receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown through the air. AJ Dillon, meanwhile, scored two rushing touchdowns on 11 carries, giving him four touchdowns over the last three games, just in time for everyone who started him early in the season but not now. Dillon did enter the concussion protocol early in the week but has already been cleared. Jones is still going to get more touches, but Dillon has been more involved than usual over the last three games, averaging 15.3 touches per game. He is also dominating the playing time from in close, as he’s seen six carries inside the 5-yard line to Jones’ two. Still, this matchup definitely leans toward Jones, as the Dolphins are stuffing 20% of carries at or behind the line of scrimmage, the fifth-highest rate in football. They are, however, surrendering the fifth-most receptions (5.6), seventh-most targets (7.1) and fourth-most receiving yards (44.4) per game to opposing running backs while Jones has caught 18 passes over his last four games. Jones is on the RB1/RB2 borderline in PPR leagues, while Dillon remains a touchdown-dependent flex play.

Wide Receiver

The touchdown streak finally came to an end last week, as Christian Watson caught four passes for 46 yards. The final stat line isn’t even too bad when you consider he had zero fantasy points at halftime. Green Bay tried to get Watson into the end zone, as Rodgers audible to a screen pass to Watson pre-snap, but the rookie wideout wasn’t on the same page as his quarterback. Romeo Doubs returned for Green Bay, but it didn’t really have an impact on Watson, who still played 87% of the snaps and ran a route on 94% of dropbacks. This is a really interesting spot for Watson, as Miami is susceptible to allowing explosive plays in the passing game, especially since they play so much man coverage with little safety help over the top. Against man coverage this season, Watson is fourth in touchdowns (4), sixth in yards after the catch per reception (10.4) and second in yards per route run (4.29). And according to Player Profiler, Watson is averaging an insane 3.20 fantasy points per target against man coverage, the second-highest mark in the league. Xavien Howard is a good defensive back, but he will allow splash plays, surrendering 15.8 yards per reception in coverage, the fourth-highest rate in football. Watson is a high ceiling WR2/WR3.

Tight End

The Dolphins just allowed both Dawson Knox and Quintin Morris to find the end zone against them last week. And on the season, Miami is allowing the third-most fantasy points (15.9), second-most receptions (6.1) and fifth-most yards (59.4) per game to opposing tight ends. So, yes, the matchup is great for Robert Tonyan, but he has been held under 25 receiving yards in five straight games, while he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4. Good luck.

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Rams

Total: 36.5, DEN -2.5
Pace: LAR: 29.2 sec/snap (28th), DEN: 26.8 sec/snap (10th)

Key news: Russell Wilson will be back under center for the Broncos this week.

Rams

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield continues to give this dormant Rams offense at least some signs of life. However, it is safe to say you are not starting him in the fantasy semifinals, especially against an elite Denver secondary that is surrendering the lowest passing touchdown rate (2.4%) and lowest yards per pass attempt (6.0) in all of football this season.

Running Back

Really, the only interest I have in this offense is at running back. Cam Akers ran well against Green Bay last week, totaling 65 yards on 12 carries, while catching three passes for 35 yards. He was the clear lead back for the Rams, logging 75% of the snaps, while running a route on 16-of-27 dropbacks (59%). Getting more snaps on passing downs could push Akers into low-end RB2 territory to finish the season and while Denver’s defense is tough, they are certainly more vulnerable against the run. 

Wide Receiver

Tutu Atwell already set a career-high in snap share last week, and now the Rams will be without Ben Skowronek for the remainder of the season. Atwell finished second on the team in targets last week with four, catching just one pass for 10 yards. He played in the slot 52% of the time, which is where you’d like him to be so he can avoid Pat Surtain. I still wouldn’t want to start Atwell unless I am in the deepest of leagues, but his playing time and usage are on the rise.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee scored his first touchdown of the season last week. Time’s yours, Diontae Johnson. Anyway, Higbee caught 4-of-5 targets for 27 yards and as long as the Rams don’t ask him to block for half of the game, he’ll post high-end TE2 numbers, especially given how depleted this Rams roster is right now.

Broncos

Quarterback

After missing last week’s game with a concussion, Russell Wilson is not listed on the injury report ahead of this Week 16 matchup. I don’t envision a scenario where you are starting Wilson, though many fantasy teams are suddenly really hurting at the quarterback position given the injuries to Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson, so I guess it is more likely Wilson will be started. The Rams defense obviously isn’t what it once was, as three of the last five signal callers to face them have finished as top-12 fantasy quarterbacks. Still, Wilson has just two games all season with multiple touchdown passes, and this game doesn’t exactly scream fantasy goodness. 

Running Back

Latavius Murray is the clear lead running back for the Broncos. He was fantastic last week, rushing for 130 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries against the Cardinals. The veteran logged 64% of the snaps and handled 25-of-36 running back touches for the Broncos. Marlon Mack is playing on passing downs, but this should be a game where the Broncos won’t be chasing points, which should lead to 18-20 carries (at least) for Murray. The Rams have been a very good run defense for most of the season, though they did just allow three touchdowns to the Green Bay backfield last week. And with Aaron Donald still out, this defense obviously isn’t the same. Murray is a volume-based flex play here.

Wide Receiver

With Courtland Sutton out again last week, Jerry Jeudy remained the clear top target for Denver, catching 7-of-8 passes for 76 yards. He once again dominated the target share and without Sutton, Jeudy continued to mostly play on the perimeter, lining up out wide over 83% of the time, which gives him more upside. Sutton could return this week, which would likely move Jeudy back into a 60-plus percent slot role. I’d prefer Jeudy to remain on the outside here, as the Rams are actually allowing the second-most receptions (5.7), third-most receiving yards (67.9) and fourth-most fantasy points (14.2) per game to opposing receivers on the left side of the formation this season. If Sutton returns, Jeudy would fall back down to WR3 status but if he remains sidelined, Jeudy would remain a low-end WR2. We’ll keep an eye on Sutton’s status as the week rolls along.

Tight End

Greg Dulcich has been underwhelming over the last two weeks, catching just four passes for 53 yards and zero touchdowns. He’s playing a ton out of the slot as of late but this past weekend, he only played six more snaps than Eric Saubert and 12 more than Eric Tomlinson, who led the Broncos tight ends in targets. Dulcich is a risky TE2 play, especially if Sutton returns this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals

Total: 40.5, TB -7.5
Pace: ARI: 26.36 sec/snap (4th), TB: 25.9 sec/snap (2nd)

Key news: Trace McSorley will start at QB for Arizona. For Tampa Bay, LT Donovan Smith is dealing with a foot injury.

Cardinals

Quarterback

Colt McCoy has been ruled out for this week’s game with a concussion, paving the way for Trace McSorley to draw the start. McSorley checked in once McCoy left last week and completed 7-of-15 passes for 95 yards and a pair of interceptions. Start the Tampa Bay DST.

Running Back

James Conner is going to continue to see tremendous volume. He saw 19 touches last week, which appears to be his floor right now. The usage in the passing game has been awesome, as Conner has seen 5, 7, 3, 5 and 3 targets over the last five games. This is a tough matchup, though it isn’t as scary if defensive tackle Vita Vea, who missed last week’s game with a calf injury, remains sidelined. You don’t feel as strong about Conner’s touchdown potential given the state of this offense right now, but the touches aren’t going anywhere, regardless of who is under center for the Cardinals. He remains a mid-range RB2 who will hopefully continue to see plenty of work in the passing game.

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins is still a wideout you should start, though it is clear he is now a mid-range WR2. He’s seen 11 targets in consecutive games, though he hasn’t found the end zone. The quarterback situation in Arizona is obviously a concern but we have seen Hopkins produce with poor quarterback play for years. You certainly have to lower the projection and expectation with Hopkins, especially against Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean, but I’d still have to be pretty loaded at wide receiver to even consider benching Hopkins.

Marquise Brown, however, is a lot easier to sit. He’s seen eight targets in all three games since returning from his injury in Week 12 but has been held under 50 yards in every contest. Brown can still make his day off one play. but it is increasingly less likely with McSorley under center. Hollywood is a volatile WR3 all of a sudden.

Tight End

Interestingly enough, Trey McBride had his best game of the year last week, despite playing with McCoy and McSorley. The Bucs are surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (13.8) but McBride still isn’t extremely fantasy relevant right now.

Buccaneers

Quarterback

Tom Brady is coming off his second-best fantasy game of the season, completing 30-of-44 passes for 312 yards and three touchdowns against the Bengals. He became the first quarterback to reach 300 passing yards against the Bengals all year, with Brady once again attempting a ton of passes. He threw the ball 44 times, his fourth straight game with at least 43 pass attempts. It seems unlikely he has to throw the ball that much this week, though his efficiency could be strong. Arizona is surrendering the third-most points per drive on the year (2.32), while opposing offenses are scoring points on 41.3% of drives against the Cardinals, the fourth-highest rate in the league. They are also allowing the fourth-highest passing touchdown rate (5.0%), while no team is allowing a higher completion rate (69.7%). Brady has lived in the mid- to high-QB2 range for most of the year but in this spot, he’s a low-end QB1 for me.

Running Back

The Cardinals just allowed 130 yards and a touchdown to Latavius Murray in the year 2022. This run defense has been brutal as of late, surrendering 2.72 yards before contact per rush since Week 9, as well as 5.0 yards per carry and an 8.9% explosive run rate. They are also allowing 15.8 rushing fantasy points per game to opposing backfields during that span, the 10th-most in football. On the season, 15% of the runs against Arizona have gained 10 or more yards, the third-highest rate in football. Rachaad White continues to “start” at running back for Tampa Bay, but Leonard Fournette saw five of seven goal-line snaps and all 12 snaps in the two-minute drill. He ultimately played 58% of the snaps to White’s 39% snap share but this is still essentially a split, which makes both running backs low-end RB2 plays in this favorable matchup.

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin found the end zone last week, catching all eight of his targets for 88 yards. You are starting Godwin as a strong WR2, especially in this great spot. A huge part of Tampa Bay’s offense is the screen game, as Brady is second in the league in pass attempts off screens (79). Godwin, meanwhile, leads the league in both targets (24) and receptions (22) off screen passes, which bodes well here. The Cardinals are surrendering 6.9 yards per pass attempt off screens this season, while also allowing two touchdown passes off the play type, tied for the second-most in the league. Arizona also allows the most yards after the catch, making this an advantageous spot for Godwin. Mike Evans, meanwhile, got back on track last week, hauling in five passes for 83 yards. It was Evans’ first game above 59 yards since Week 8, while he led the team with 10 targets. The Cardinals have done a very good job of limiting deep passing plays, surrendering just a 25% completion rate on passes 20 yards or more down the field, the lowest rate in the league. Just eight percent of the passes against them have traveled 20-plus yards, the second-lowest rate. Still, Evans is a low-end WR2 given his upside, and you know he’s going to find the end zone any day now.

Tight End

Cade Otton is playing more than Cameron Brate now but the veteran’s presence is still limiting Otton’s overall upside. Brate also out-targeted him 4-1. It is a shame, too, because this is the best matchup for opposing tight ends. Arizona just allowed a long touchdown to Eric Tomlinson last week and are allowing the most fantasy points, receptions and targets per game to the position.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts

Total: 46, LAC -4.5
Pace: IND: 26.63 sec/snap (7th), LAC: 25.8 sec/snap (1st)

Key news: Jonathan Taylor (ankle) has been placed on injured reserve. Nick Foles will start at QB for the Colts.

Colts

Quarterback

After blowing a 33-0 lead, the Colts for whatever reason decided it was apparently Matt Ryan’s fault and benched him for Nick Foles. This game is not being played during the 2018 season, which means Foles isn’t likely to play very well. You can add him in superflex leagues where you are desperate but don’t expect any earth-shattering numbers.

Running Back

Unfortunately, Jonathan Taylor’s season is over after suffering a high ankle sprain last week. In his absence last Saturday, the Colts deployed both Zack Moss and Deon Jackson at running back. Moss led the way with a 67% snap share and 24 carries, though he wasn’t very impressive, rushing for just 81 yards. However, the role was strong, as Moss played 10-of-14 snaps on third down and 4-of-5 in short-yardage situations. His playing time increased during the second half, though Indianapolis was insanely conservative throughout the entire second half, as they tried to protect a 33-point lead. They surely won’t be winning by 33 points this week, and probably not at all, which makes me wonder what the backfield will look like. Deon Jackson finished as the RB1 in fantasy in Week 6 with Taylor out, though it was mostly due to 10 receptions. Not to mention, Moss wasn’t there yet. This is a very good matchup for both running backs, as the Chargers are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the season. Moss and Jackson are viable flex plays here but whoever gets more playing time on passing downs could easily get the edge. 

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman caught 10 passes last week, though he only recorded 60 yards. He also rushed for 30 yards on two carries. Pittman was targeted 14 times but now he will have to play with a different quarterback for the third time this season. There is no telling how the presence of Foles will impact Pittman, which drops him into the high-end WR3 range for me against the Chargers. 

Tight End

As they have all season long when healthy, the Colts continue to use three tight ends. You can look elsewhere at the tight end position for your fantasy semifinals.

Chargers

Quarterback

Justin Herbert was very disappointing last week. He passed for 313 yards but threw two interceptions and failed to score a touchdown for the second time all season. Herbert will now face a Colts defense that has allowed seven passing scores over the last two weeks, while Indianapolis is surrendering the sixth-highest completion rate in football over the course of the season (67.4%). Herbert hasn’t been as efficient against zone coverage this season, which is primarily what the Colts run, but he’s still an easy top-seven fantasy signal caller and at this point of the season, anyone playing indoors gets a bump.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler exited last week’s game with a shoulder injury but ultimately returned and found the end zone. It wasn’t a massive game from Ekeler, though not many running backs have huge outings against the Titans. Ekeler now faces a Colts defense that has allowed a whopping six touchdowns to opposing running backs over the last three weeks. Indianapolis, who plays a ton of zone, is allowing the fifth-most receptions per game to opposing backfields (5.6), as well as the fifth-most receiving yards (44.0) and fifth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position.

Wide Receiver

The floor remained incredibly high for Keenan Allen last week, as the veteran caught eight passes for 86 yards. Allen now has 85-plus yards in each of his last three games, seeing a whopping 37 targets during that span. With his ability to shine in the short/intermediate areas of the field, Allen should be able to stay productive against this zone defense this weekend. And with the Chargers offensive line still struggling to give Herbert ample time, Allen will continue to see plenty of targets in the short areas of the field, providing him with an awesome floor. Mike Williams saw eight targets last week, recording 67 yards. I expected more from Williams, though I also expected more from Herbert, too. Williams is much more productive against man coverage, as he ranks top-five in yards per route run but drops to 50th against zone coverage. Per Player Profiler, Williams’ target rate drops from 24.7% against man coverage to just 15.4% against zone, making this a more advantageous matchup for Allen. Still, Williams is, at worst, a low-end WR2 each week.

Tight End

Gerald Everett caught 4-of-6 targets for 42 yards last week. Donald Parham returned from a hamstring injury last week, but Everett still logged 62% of the snaps, running a route on 28-of-45 dropbacks. It is possible his involvement isn’t as high as it was the last few weeks, but Everett is still a borderline TE1, especially in games where the Chargers have to throw, which is most of them.